Home Assignment 1

Bus 173; Sec 9

Prepared for M. Siddique Hossain

Prepared By

Ehsan Karim ID# 101 0347 030

Answer to the question no. 1

The mean of the population is = 5.5

SAMPLE AND SAMPLE MEANS If n = 2 then

SAMPLE 2,4 2,6 2,6 2,7 2,8 4,6 4,6 4,7

SAMPLE MEAN 3 4 4 4.5 5 5 5 5.5

SAMPLE 4,8 6,6 6,7 6,8 6,7 6,8 7,8

SAMPLE MEAN 6 6 6.5 7 6.5 7 7.5

SAMPLING DISTRIBUTIONS

SAMPLE MEAN 3 4 4.5 5 5.5 6 6.5 7 7.5

PROBABLITY 1/15 2/15 1/15 3/15 1/1 2/15 2/15 2/15 1/15

0.25

0.2

0.15

Column12 Column1

0.1

Column2 Series 1

0.05

0 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 5.5 6 6.5 7 7.5

If n = 3 then

SAMPLE 2,4,6 2,4,6 2,4,7 2,4,8 2,6,6 2,6,7 2,6,8 2,7,8

SAMPLE MEAN 4 4 4.33 4.67 4.67 5 5.33 5.67

SAMPLE 4,6,6 4,6,7 4,6,8 4,7,8 6,6,7 6,6,8 6,7,8

SAMPLE MEAN 4.33 5.67 6 6.33 6.33 6.67 7

SAMPLING DISTRIBUTIONS

SAMPLE MEAN 4 4.33 4.67 5 5.33 5.67 6 6.33 6.67 7

PROBABLITY 2/15 2/15 2/15 1/15 1/15 2/15 1/15 2/15 1/15 1/15

0.14 0.12 0.1 0.08 0.06 0.04 0.02 0 4 4.33 4.67 5 5.33 5.67 6 6.33 6.67 7

Column1 Column2 Series 1

If n = 4 then

SAMPLE 2,4,6,6 2,4,6,7 2,4,6,8 2,4,7,8 4,6,6,7 4,6,6,8 6,6,7,8

SAMPLE MEAN 4.5 4.75 5 5.25 5.75 6 6.75

MEAN 4.5 4.75 5 5.25 5.75 6 6.75

PROBABLITY 1/7 1/7 1/7 1/7 1/7 1/7 1/7

0.16 0.14 0.12 0.1 Column1 0.08 0.06 0.04 0.02 0 4.5 4.75 5 5.25 5.75 6 6.75 Column2 Series 1

Answer to the question 2

SOME IMPORTANT TOPICS ABOUT CHAPTER 6 AND 7

Distribution of sample statistics: Any aggregate characteristics about sample observations is called statistic.

Purpose of sampling: 1) TIME and 2) COST we deal with sample in order to draw conclusion about population in a less expensive matter. The basic objective of its study is to draw influence about the population. In other words, sampling is only a tool which helps to know the characterisitics of the population by examining a small part of it. The values obtained from the study of a sample such as average and variance is known as STATISTICS On the other words, such values from the population are called parameters.

PRINCIPLES OF SAMPLING: There are two important principles on which the theory of sampling is based. They are 1) PRINCIPLES OF STATISTICAL REGULARITY 2) PRINCIPLES OF INERTIA OF LARGE NUMBERS

A moderately large number of items are chosen at random from a large group are almost sure on the average to possess the characteristics of the large group.

This principle points out that if a sample is taken at random from a population, it is likely to possess almost the same characteristics of that population.

PRINCIPLES OF INERTIA OF LARGE NUMBERS: Other things being constant larger the size of the sample, more accurate the results are likely to be. This difference in the aggregate result is likely to be insignificant when the number is as the sample size is large.

SAMPLE

POPULATION

N=5 X = 200 S^2 = 25

N=5 = 250 = 20

There are three types of distributions 1) POPULATION DISTRIBUTION 2) SAMPLE DISTRIBUTION 3) SAMPLING DISTRIBUTION

* THE POPULATION DISTRIBUTION:

When we talk of the population distribution we assumed that we have investigated the population and have full knowledge of its mean and standard deviation.

* THE SAMPLE DISTRIBUTION: When we talk a sample distribution we take a sample from a population. A sample distribution may take any shape. The mean and the standard deviation of the sample distribution are symbolized by X bar and S respectively. It may be noted that several sample distributions are possible from a given population. * THE SAMPLING DISTRIBUTION: Sampling distribution constitute the basis of statistical influence and are of considerable importance in business decision making. If we take numerous different samples of equal size from the same popualtion, the probability distribution of the possible values of a given statistic from all distinct possible samples of equal size is called a sampling distribution. It is interesting to note that sampling distribution closely approximate a normal distribution. It can be proved that the mean of sampling distribution of sample means is the same as the mean of the population from which sampling was taken. Let . represent independent random variables correspondent to n observation in a sample from a population having thr same mean X = sample mean =

= E (X) = E( = 1/n E ( + + )

= 1/n { E ( = 1/n = n

)+E(

) + .+ E(

)}

The mean of the sampling distribution is denoted by the same symbol as the mean of the population. E (X) = { /n}

However , the standard deviation of the sampling distribution of mean is given a special name, standard error of mean as denoted by X bar as a suffix, indicates that in this case we are dealing with a sampling distributions of means. The standard of the mean denoted by and is calculated by = This formula holds only when population is infinite on sample are from a finite population with replacement. The proportion of the sampling distribution of the mean 1) It has been equal to the mean E(X) = 2) It has a standard deviation equal to the population standard deciation divided by square of the sample size. That is =

= / When is a measure of the spread of X bar unless around or a measure of average sampling error or simply standard error of the mean. 3) It is normally distributed.

The distribution of the sample means for large sample is distributed normally whatever the shape of the parent population. Sample of n = 3 or more items are considered large in statistical analysis. In practice, the standard deviation of the population is rarely known, and, therefore the standard deviation of samples which closely approximate the standard deviation of the population, is used in place of . Hence the formula for the standard deviation of error will be = / Where is the standard deviation of the sample.

FITNITE POPULATION CONNECTIM FACTOR = = = n/

METHODS OF SAMPLING 1) RANDOM SAMPLING 2) NON RANDOM SAMPLING and

RANDOM SAMPLING

SIMPLE RANDOM SAMPLING

STRATIFIED SAMPLING

SYSTEMATIC SAMPLING

MULTI STAGE SAMPLING

Under non-random sampling, 1) Judgment sampling 2) Quota sampling 3) Convenience sampling

SIZE OF SAMPLE 1) The size of the sample should increase as the variation in the individual items increase. 2) The greater the accuracy expected the larger shall the sample size will be.

WHY SAMPLING?? 1) Less time 2) Lower cost 3) More reliable results 4) More detailed information. 5) The destructive nature of certain test.

# The sample mean x bar for a random sample of size n drawn from a normal population with a normal distribution with mean and variance is also distributed with and variance

CENTRAL LIMIT THEORM tells us that the mean of a random sample drawn from a population with any probability distribution will be approximately normally distributed with mean at variance /n This CLT enables us to use the n ormal distribution to compute probablities for sample means obtained from many different population.

CLT STATEMENT Let , ,.., be a set of n independent random observations having identical distributions with mean and variance ^2 and X as the sum of Xbar as the mean of these random observations. As n becomes large the CLT states that the distribution of Z=

Sampling distribution of sample proportion A population proportion is defined as P = X/N When, X is the number of elements which possess a certain characteristics at N is the total number of items in the population. A sample proportion is defined as P bar = x/n Where x is the number of items in the sample which possess a certain characteristics and n is the sample size. A proportion may be considered as a proportion of success and is obtained by dividing the number of success by sample size n.

If a random sample of size n is obtained with replacement then the sampling distribution obeys the binomial probability law. Suppose that a population is finite and that the probability of occurrence of an event is P while the probability of non occurrence of the event is ( 1 P )

Now if we consider all possible samples of size n drawn from the population and for each sample determine the proportion P bar of success. Then we obtain a sampling distribution of proportions where mean n at standard deviation in are given by, V ( p bar ) = P ( 1 P )/n This is exactly the mean and variance of sampling distribution from bionomical population. We know that if np (1 p) > q ; it can be approximated to the normal population. SAMPLING DISTRIBUTION OF THE SAMPLE PROPORTIONS Let P bar be the sample proportion of successes in a random sample from a population with proportion of success P then 1) The sampling distribution of p bar has mean P E ( pbar) = p 2) The sampling distribution of p bar has standard error = )/n

3) If the sample size is large then the random variable Z = is approximately distributed as a standard normal. The approximation is good if np( 1 p ) q

CONFIDENCE INTERVAL Generally we assume that a random sample is taken from a population that is normally distributed with unknown mean and variance. We try to find a range of values rather than a single point to estimate a population mean. It is hard to believe that population mean will be known and population variance be known. However, you may be surprised in many companies, some records can provide a good estimation of population variance.

In order to draw confidence interval we need to know the population parameters or we have to estimate parameters from the sample observations.

INTERVAL ESTIMATOR In interval estimate of a population parameter given by two numbers which parameter may be considered to lie in is called as interval estimate of the parameter. There are three steps 1) The particular statistics say that the mean of the sample x bar or S.D of the sample is determined. 2) The confidence level is decided if 90%, 95% , 94% 3) The standard error of the particular statistic is calculated. Answer to the question no. 3

6.6) a Probablity function: f(x)

0.3

0.25

0.2

0.15

0.1

0.05

0 1 2 3 4

6.6) b Cumulative density function F(x)

6.8) a) P(380 < X < 460) = P(X < 460)-P(X <380) = .6 - .4 = .2 b) P(X < 380) < P(X < 400) < P(X < 460); .4 < P(X<400) < .6

6.10) W = a+ b X if the available fund is = 1000 2X where X = number of units

produced, then = a + bx = 1000 2(50) = 900; w= x = (2)^2 (900) = 3600

6.12) W = a + bX if available funds = 6000 3X where X = number of units produced, then mean and variance for the number of units are 1000 and 900

respectevely. = a + b = 6000 -2(1000) = 4000;

w=

x = (-3)^2 (900) = 8100

6.14) = 20 + Bid = 1.1 = 20 + 4 = 24 million = 1.1(24) = 26.4 million = 1 million

6.18) P(Z < P(Z < P(Z > P(Z > ) = .7; closest value of ) = .25; closest value of ) = .2; closest value of ) = .6; closest value of = .52 = -.67 = .84 = -.25

6.28)

P(Z > 1.5) = 1 -

(1.5) = .0668

6.30) P (Z > .67) = .25; .67 = 17.8 - P(Z > 1.03) = .15; 1.04 = 19.2 - = 15.265, = = 14.317

6.34) a. P(Z > - 1.28) = .9; -1.28 = b. P(Z < .84) = .8; .84 = c. P (X X = 98.8Z X = 183.6 ]^2 = 1 { P(Z < .75) }^2 = 1

1) = 1 P(X = 0) = 1- [ .9487

(.2266)^2 =

6.36) a. P ( <Z< ) = P 9-.25 < Z < .75) = ; = 522.4 (.75) { 1 .25} = .372

b. P( Z > 1.28) = .1, 1.28 = c. 400 439 = -39 d. 520 559 = -59 e. P (X

= 1 P( X = 0) = 1 { P ( Z < -120/80 ) }^2 = .2922

7.18)

= 1.6/

= .16 P( Z > 1.645) = .05, Difference = , Difference = -2.048 DIfference = .2304

b) P(Z < -1.28) = .1, -1.28 = c) P(Z > 1.44) = .075, 1.44 =

7.20) a) P( Z> 1.96) = .025, 1.96 = b) Ans will be smaller c) Ans will be larger , n = 67.266 that n = 68

7.26) E( ) = 0.4 = = .04899

a) Probability that the sample proportion is greater than .45 Z= = P(Z >1.02) = .1539

b) Probability that the sample proportion is less than .29 Z= = P(Z < -2.25) = .0122

c) Probability that the sample proportion is between .35 and .51 P( <Z< ) = P(-1.02 < Z <2.25) = .8339

7.28) E( ) = 0.60 = = .04899

a) Probability that the sample proportion is greater than .66 Z= = P(Z >1.22) = .1112

b) Probability that the sample proportion is less than .48 Z= = P(Z < -2.45) = .0071

c) Probability that the sample proportion is between .52 and .66 P( <Z<z= ) = P(-1.63 < Z <1.22) = .8372

7.32) a. E( ) = 0.20 b. c. = = .0298 ) = P(Z <-1.68) = .0465 = .000889

d. P(Z <

7.34) = P( 7.38) The largest value for is when p = .5 . In this case, = = .05 = .0447 <Z< ) = P(-1.12 < Z <1.12) = .7372