Strategic Context:

Australia and the Region

Professor Carl Thayer

Senior Officer Operations Planning Course
Defence Establishment Fairbairn
February 26, 2007
 Outline

♦Introduction
♦Strategic Environment
♦Australia and the Region
♦The Region and Australia
♦Current issues
♦Conclusion
 Introduction

♦ Defending Australia
– Capacity to preserve territory from
attack
♦ Defending Australia’s interests
– Strategic interests
– Security interests
♦ Prioritizing contending interests
♦ Resource constraints
Strategic Environment
Number of Conflicts, 1946-2003
 Strategic Environment

Four major forces

1. Globalisation will intensify
2. Demographic change
3. International terrorism will persist
4. Continued U.S. dominance
 Globalisation
♦ New levels of world economic growth
♦ Deepening interdependence
♦ Emergence of middle class
♦ World labour market
♦ East Asia centre of world growth
♦ International institutions and states will
come under challenge
 Demographic Change
♦ Fall in population growth rates in
developed countries and an aging of
their populations
♦ Constraints on economic growth.
– Japan and Russia will be severely
affected in this regard.
♦ Emergence of youth bulges in many
parts of the developing world
 International Terrorism
♦ Transmutation of al Qaeda
♦ Global jihadism
♦ Politics of identity
– Challenge to state legitimacy
♦ Home grown terrorism
♦ Continuing conflict in Iraq and
Afghanistan
Terrorist Attacks, 1982-2003

Lethality
 U.S. Dominance
♦ Until mid-century the United States will
remain the most powerful state in all
dimensions of national power
♦ Relative power of the U.S.will decline
– Rise of China and India
– Proliferation of nuclear weapons
♦ U.S. management of global forces will
largely determine world and regional order
Threats to Vital Australian Interests
 East Asia
♦ Shift in economic power to East Asia
♦ Rise of China and India
♦ Japan: more active role in the management
of global security
♦ Potential great power rivalry
– China-US
– China-Japan
♦ Diffusion of military technology
♦ East Asian regionalism
 South Pacific

♦ Arc of instability
♦ Transnational security issues
♦ Weak and failing states
– Solomon Islands
– East Timor
♦ China-Taiwan rivalry
Australia and the Region
 U.S. Alliance
♦ ‘The alliance with the United States
confers major strategic, political and
economic benefits on Australia. The
defence relationship is a substantial
force multiplier for Australia’s defence
and intelligence capabilities including
in relation to terrorism.’
– Australia’s National Security: A Defence Update
2005,13.
 U.S. Alliance System
♦ Foundation of regional stability and
security
♦ Interoperability
♦ Further institutionalisation
– Intelligence/operations
– Technology transfer
♦ Ballistic missile defence
♦ Increased burden sharing by allies
 Japan
♦ Largest trading partner
– Free Trade Agreement
♦ Tsunami relief operations
♦ Iraq – security protection
♦ Trilateral Security Dialogue
♦ Bilateral defence co-operation
 China
♦ Not an ‘either or’ choice
♦ Australia promotes good management
of China-US bilateral relations
♦ Major emerging market for Australia
♦ China’s growing energy needs
♦ Australia’s comparative advantage
 Indonesia
♦ Cooperation in border security
– Transnational crime: illegal drugs, people
smuggling
♦ Cooperation in counter-terrorism
♦ Support for economic growth and
democratic consolidation
♦ New Framework for Security Cooperation
– Disavow support for separatism
 The Philippines

♦ Expansion of security relations

♦ Australian assistance
– Training
– Combined Exercises
– Maritime surveillance
– Counter-terrorism capability
 Regionalism

♦ Australia promoted APEC (1989)

– Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation forum
♦ Australia a founding member of East Asian
Summit (2005)
– Mahathir’s objections
– Treaty of Amity and Cooperation - Cold War
relic?
The Region and Australia
 U.S. Alliance
♦ “we bring an additional strength to our regional
relations, which is our strong alliance with the
United States.”
– Alexander Downer, May 12, 2006
♦ Australia as a dependent ally
– Ballistic missile defence
♦ Howard Doctrine
– Pre-emption
♦ Deputy Sheriff
 China
♦ China’s growing strategic influence
♦ China as a centre of technological
development
♦ Stable markets, secure SLOCs
♦ China as major emerging market for
Australia
♦ China’s energy needs
 China

♦ Concern about encirclement by U.S.-

led alliance system
♦ Growing economic interdependence
♦ Taiwan Straits contingencies
♦ Increased defence cooperation
 China’s National Security Objectives

♦ Maintain domestic security; prevent

separatism in Tibet and Xinjiang; and
then recover control over Taiwan;
♦ Promote a stable regional security
environment, especially along China’s
periphery, as the prerequisite for
economic growth;
 China’s National Security Objectives

♦ Maintain high levels of economic

growth to provide employment, raise
income levels and prevent domestic
disorder;
♦ Restore and expand China’s traditional
political and diplomatic influence; and
 China’s National Security Objectives

♦ Promote a multi-polar international

order to prevent encirclement or
containment by the United States.
Indonesia

Lowy Institute Poll

Indonesia

Lowy Institute Poll 2005

Indonesia

Lowy Institute Poll

Current Issues
 Global
♦ ANZUS as a global alliance
♦ Australian partnership with NATO
♦ Iraq - the end game?
♦ WMD Proliferation
– Iran
♦ Failed and failing states
– Africa and Middle East
 Regional

♦ Past alignment of Australian’s

economic & security interests will
diverge
– U.S. cornerstone of security
– China second largest trading partner
♦ Counter-terrorism
 Regional

♦ WMD counter-proliferation
– Proliferation Security Initiative
♦ Cooperation to meet transnational
threats
♦ Maritime security cooperation
♦ Humanitarian assistance and disaster
relief
 North East Asia
♦ Increased Japanese defence capacity
and increased independence from the
US?
♦ Korean peninsula
♦ Taiwan
♦ Territorial disputes
– China-Japan and Japan-South Korea
 South East Asia
♦ Separatism in Indonesia
♦ Cooperation with the Armed Forces of
the Philippines
♦ Five Power Defence Arrangements
– Area defence
– Asymmetric threats
– Maritme surveillance
 Indonesia
♦ Working out bilateral cooperation
under the Framework for Security
Cooperation:
– Defence, law enforcement, counter-
terrorism, intelligence sharing, maritime
and aviation security, WMD
proliferation, emergency relief and
people-to-people links
 South Pacific
♦ Closer Defence Relationship with
New Zealand
♦ Pacific Island Forum - leadership role
♦ Nation-building - no exit strategy
– Solomon Islands
– Vanuatu, PNG
♦ Civil-Military relations
– PNG, Fiji
 South Asia
♦ India’s increased economic and
political clout
♦ India-United States new framework for
defence relations
♦ Increased opportunities for security
cooperation with India
♦ Civilian nuclear industry
– Australian exports of uranium
Conclusion
 Strategic Uncertainty
♦ Strategic shocks and discontinuities are
difficult to anticipate
– Pandemic, state failure, catastrophic terrorist
attack, military confrontation between major
powers
♦ ADF will continue to be involved in broad
spectrum from high-end war fighting to
stabilisation operations and humanitarian
assistance and disaster relief missions
 The Long War
♦ Impact of Democrat control of Congress on
lame duck US president and US strategy
over next two years
♦ Will the Global War on Terrorism remain
the central organising principal of US
strategic policy?
♦ Possibility of ‘Iraq syndrome’
♦ How should Australia re-adjust its policies?