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Doubling Time and Half Life: Two Suggested Conventions for Describing Rates of Change in Social Science Data
Richard W. Chadwick and Karl W. Deutsch Comparative Political Studies 1968 1: 139 DOI: 10.1177/001041406800100106 The online version of this article can be found at: http://cps.sagepub.com/content/1/1/139.citation

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DOUBLING TIME AND HALF LIFE

Two Suggested Conventions for

Describing Rates of Change in Social Science Data
RICHARD W.

CHADWICK and KARL W. DEUTSCH

on

of -Sydent Det)elo~ Corporations Beha0ford CanzbV and SimuZation Program. KARLW, JM~~~CH,f~~MM~6~C~W~~M~~~~J~~-

RICHARD

W. CHADWTCK ~

the staff

&dquo;..

v~rd Unitvrsity, is the author of numerous books

and

journal CtttC~S in the ~Ms of international ~~~M~~~~~~~p~~M~h~K~~a~~~W~MM.

&dquo;

tive government.
}..,

&dquo;&dquo;..
l
...

<
.

a ...
~

V
f

V ERY

.~ OFTEN IN THE STUDY of change in social phenomena, it is not the rate of gr~~th ~r decline per year, but rather the bnpliv~zfiong of such hange-for sustained pmods of tine thai are #f th~~~ic~ interest. One is concerned not so much with whether a rate of growth is 1 % or 37o per year, for example, but with the potential consequences for a system if that rate of gr~~vth were sustai~.e~.. We often ask: what kinds of difficulties would be generated for the system? for other systems? How long would it talce before small but sustained rates of change generate important cbfferenoes in the condition of the system ? ~?Ue suggest that a simple, precise, and meaningfully descriptive method for denoting the potential implications of rates of change is
..,

-<

~.~~~ No=: A note of c~~~cic~t~n is due to Frr~ f~ssc,rrs Derek 1. do Soffa Price and Anatol Rapoport for their comments and s~~ge~t~s ~ vari0u8 stages in this papees development. PuBmmWs NOTE: This paper is being published simultaneously in the .~~r~h-A~, 1968, ~s~ce of The tlmerican Behavioral Scientist (Volume Xl, Number 4), in an ~~ ~o bring it to the attention of a wider audience of social sr;~nt~t~.

139

them in terms of doubung titne, or, in the case of decline, half life. In either case, the appropriate figure is easily arrived at by taking the number 70 (approximately) and dividing by the rate of change expressed as a percentage., Mathematieally, this may be writto express

ten as

where DT is doubling time, HL is halt li~e, and r$ ~ an observed annual rate of change expressed as a decimal. A growth rate of 3% per year, for example, may be expressed as a potential doubling time
of approximately 23 years (ort in the cue of decline at the rate of per year, at a half life of 23 years).

3%

necessarily-or long period of tively

more

immediately meaningful than the convention of denoting change by percentages per year. ~r~ say, for example, that &dquo;a population is growing at the rate of 3% per year&dquo; is not quite as cospelling as saying &dquo;a population has a potential doubling time of 23
rates of

This is not, of course, to say that an observed rate of change will even in all likelihood-be sustained constantly over a time. We are simply suggesting that the convention of denoting rates of change in terms of doubling times or half lives is intui-

years.&dquo; Similarly, to say &dquo;the proportion of a nations gross national product engaged in trade is declining at the rate of 3% per year&dquo; does met bring home the intuitive sig1lifican&oelig; of the statistic as quickly as the statement that &dquo;the proportion of a nations gross national product emugaged in trade is currently declining at the rate of 50% every 23 years (has a potential half Me of 23 years).&dquo; Similarly, we could reformulate statements concerning the relative proportion of world GNP engaged in
the international sector, rates of change in government budgets, allocations to defense, and so forth. A useful extension of these conventions might be to project time series forward(or backward) to assess the implications of differential rates of change. Suppose, for example, a countrys population grows at the rate of 2% per year, while its gross national product grows at the rate of 3% per year. If these rates are sustained, it is evident that the populations will double every thirty-five years and ~I~1P will double every 23 years. If we project these trends over a lQ year period, we see GNP will have increased eightfold (doubling in 23 years, doubling again in 43 years, and once again in ~ years), while population will only have quadrupled (doubling in 35 years, and once again in 70 years). Per capita income; therefore, will have doubled. Many similar tentative
140

oompotatkm of this Mn4 can be carried

could have
some

effects not limited to computational C01lveDencethough related to such convenience. Thwking about theories and pr0cof social change is an operation involving many steps of thought or calculations which must be passed fairly f8pid1y. if many possibilities and implica dons are to be surveyed in a limited tune. Quantitative steps, in particular, tend to be relatively slow and time-consuming; and yet they are often essential if theories are to be improved and made more specific. Any step that is relatively slow and laborious, or requires a search for books and tables, will slow up the entire How of thought, much as a single bottleneck may slow up an extended stream of traffic. The method proposed here permits the quick and relatively accurate perception of potential consequences or implications of rates of change. Wherever the implications of rates of change form essential steps in the development of theories) this technique should make our now of thought faster, more precise, and therefore more effective.
APPENDIX

quickly, without recourse to computers. or even without pencil and paper. The more widespread use of this technique among social scientists
out
,

1. A CoNvmqmNT Dr43p= oF APPRoxn&&noN

~

The usual

of change (either increase or two formulae:

approach to computing changes in quantities given a rate decrease) is to apply one of the following

where P = an original amount (such as &dquo;principal&dquo; in banks, or population size), F = a final amount after t-periods of time have elapsed, t = the number of elapsed time periods, r, == the observed rate of

change per time period, r. = the &dquo;naturaf or &dquo;instantaneous&dquo; rate of

change, and e
the limit,
=

the irrational number 2.71828

....

generated by taking
as

for which convenient which can be converted to logarithms to the and tables are avai1able, base 10 by multiplying each natural logarithm by 0.4343, approximately. For the purpose of simplifying equations below, natural are used and are denoted by the symbol ln(x), x being any number)

(1 + x) k . (This number, x --+ 0 the widely employed system of &dquo;natural logarithms,&dquo;

e, is used

the basis of

141

,&dquo;

--Mlheffier-,6ne employs equation (2) or (3) depeAd6~uwhedw one -has a~iIaMe, respectively, either r., say an annual rate of chtmge, Of t., 4* 11attmd, iottantane6us rate -of change A-3 it datMm.~ To convert etther equation to an estiamtor of doubling time (DT) or half life (RL), one need oblyamun~e that by some time period, t, F ==: 2r or F = .5P, reSpeCtively, one then substitutes either 2P or .5P for F into either equaticia-~ 2) or (3), and solves for t, which. upon thb iubstituiloi3~ becomes the DT (or HL) estimate. Going through this procedure for

equation. (3), for

e:Kamj?le, one obtains the fowwiug:

ta1dDg natural logariflmw on both sides, we obtain

but

since the logarithm of

any number to its

I

awn

base equals
,

one,

ln(e~ =1 1, and we obtain

4ividing both sides by 1&dquo;11, we obtain

but since
we

set F = 2P to obtain the

above,
-

t is 01U estimate of
-

doubling time; Owswe may

write

,Ry a siniflw procedurei- through equation (2)

we

eventually

obtain

Iteferrkag back to formula (4), we note that In( 2) is approximately ,O.M (obtained from any table of natural logaxidnns); ~ we uow subOiis vouo into equation -(4), above, and multiply botb- the *~ate oumerator and denominator by 100, we obtain
&dquo;
&dquo; 4 ~

-text. Shft4Dff SOCia1scientists

(41) it quite similar to the equation (1) given in the usually have annual rates of change as datit, 1!quatou (5) would, strictly speaking, be,prefe-ral>le to (41) for accurate computation-, for substituting7 r. tor rl1 in eqU)1tion (41) intioduces, a
Note that equation
142

downward bias

In DT and HL estimates,

than they should

be. However, from

making them slightjy smaller computational point of view,

equation (4) is certainly more convonient. We therefore have catcWqLted a series of ucorrection factors&dquo; to substitute for the value of 69.3 in the numerator of equation (41), which will just offset the bias introduced by substituting r. for r. in the denominator, for given rates gf
.

change.

These &dquo;correction factors&dquo;

appear in Table It below.&dquo; I TABLE

irost

PoTN~nAI. DOUBLING Ttux (HALF lavit) EsTm.&ns OF CHANCE Pm YF4R

SBLECTED 1UTB8

from Table 1 why the value of 70 was chosen for in the text: it eliminates the bias in equation (4)---from equation (1) which equation(1) was clearly derived-when r. = .01 or 1% per year, and reduces bias somewhat for all values of r~ with absolute values greater than .01. Moreover, note that, while the correction factor necessary to eliminate biases for r&dquo;s with larger absolute values increases rapidly, the actual amount of bias is not great-never becoming larger in absolute value than .3 years, albeit ~it does increase in &6pdkn to doubling time rates. Given the purpose for which equation ~ ~ ~ is put forth, however and given the amount of error in rates of change normally available to social scientists, and given the normal size <~ observed rates of change, the bias in estimation when using ~u~o~
It
can

be

seen

more

(1) would nomi4y be offset by its computational convenience. When accuracy is desired in calculationas for publication purpose~, r~s opposed to heuristic purposes), either Rapopores medication (footnote
143

4)

equation (5) would be preferable. We stress once again that our purpose here is to provide a heuristic for theorizing, not a computational a~gor~ithm for accurate prediction in and of itself.s
or

U. THE CONCEPT

01

HALl L1n:

We should comment upon another aspect of Table 1, and the concept of -half life,&dquo; in particular. The reader may be troubled to observe that the table is said to apply to estimating half life as well as doubling time when he observes a 100% or &dquo;A4~ rate of decline, only to discover that at the end of a year the original amount has not disappeared entirely. To explain this apparent anomaly, it will be helpful to recall that a growth rate is conceived here as increases by a constant proportion of the amount that exists at each moment. ~f, for example, $100 were growing at the rate of 40% per year, then in one year we would have $140; in the next year if the 40% rate is maintained-it would be necessary to add $56, in the next approximately $78, and so on. In this case, the original $100 would have doubled shortly after the beaming of the third year.
,

of half life, $100 decreasing at the rate of 40% Now, each year would drop to $60 by the end of the first year, by $24 the second year, and by approximately $14 the third year, and so on. In this case it would have shrunk to one half of its original value sometimes in the course of the second year. A constant rate of change, as,a percentage of the original and then subsequent amounts, means increasing absolute additions in the -case in the case of a rate of of growth, but it means declining absolute &M~ decline. These observations seem simple in where rates of change are srnall~-on the order of 3 to 5%-but they have to be carefully kept in mind to avoid confusion when rates of change are very large. If $100 were dwindling at the rate of 100% per year, then the rate of loss during the first month would be { very roughly) 112th of $100 or about $8; but in the second month it would be 1~ l.~h of $92 or 1.50; in the third month it would be 1/ 12+ of $84, which is only a $7 loss, Thus every month the residual amount dwindles by d!~~r~~n~ absolute amounts. As a result, if $100 were shrinking at a 100% rate of decline, there would be $50 left at the end of the year. Amounts that decline at constant rates, therefore, shrink very quickly at first, but evermore slowly thereafter. In theory, they can never fall to zero, though in prac> tice they will eventually fall below some threshold of indivisibility or huignifi,cance. This fact makes it possible for rates of decline to be even
case

in the

144

If $100 should decline at the rate of 300% per year, then it should decline by approximately 425 dol1ars during the Ant month, by approximately $19 during the second month, by $14 the tbh-d, and so on. It would therefore have fit half life of somewhat less than three months, if we followed this crude calculation (using precise methods, per equation (5), the half life is about .5 years or six months, and Rapoporfs adjustment yields about .6 years, as does the nesirest correction factor in Table 1, namely, the factor of 193. ; as stated earlier, for extreme rates of growth or decline, even single-digit accuracy re-

higher than 100%.

quires fairly-precise calculation).

NOTES
1. See the attached Appendix for derivation and general discussion. 2. The relationship between the Natural, instantaneous rate of change, r , and the obn served rate of change per some time period is given by the equation: r n = ln (l + 3. The reader unfamiliar with logarithms may wonder why formula (4) for estimating both DT and HL, since we set F = 2P initially. It turns out that if we set F = .5P, we eventually obtain ln (.5) in the numerator instead of ln (2). These two logarithms, however, have identical absolute values, though opposite in sign. But since in such a case, we also have a change in sign of the r a value (being negative in the case of half life) the sign changes cancel out in calculations. Thus we obtain exactly the same expression for estimating HL as we do for DT. 4. In personal communication to the authors, Anatol Rapoport has pointed out that the relationship between r n and r a given in note 2, above, implies the power expansion If r + /3 a 3 n = lu(1 + r r )a a = r /2 + r a 2 r n is small, terms of

). a r satisfies

-4 / a 4 r

....

degree higher than the first

becomes HL = DT &ap;

may be

ignored, and, after some simplification, equation (4)

If one takes the trouble to

a 69.3/100r

(1

+2). / a r

employ this correction

factor Rapoport suggests, one will find his modification yielding excellent estimates up to 100% rates of change (at that rate, yielding a DT of 1.04 years; which compares quite favorably with column 3 estimates in Table 1, above. Its only drawback is the labor of

calculation.
5. Rates of change, particularly in the case of comparative economic and demographic data, are seldom known within more than one digit of accuracy, if that. (Cf. Oskar Morgenstern, On the Accuracy of Economic Observations , 2nd ed., Princeton Univ. Press, 1963, chap. 15, esp. pp. 298-301.) When we get in the neighborhood of 50% rates of annual change, we begin to get a noticeable bias in the first digit, using the correction factor of 70. In applying this suggested convention, as with percentage values, great caution should be taken not to report more significant digits than estimated
error in

the data

or

bias in calculations will allow.

145