34-Working For A Green Britain N Nother Ireland 2013

www.RenewableUK.
com
Working for a Green Britain & Northern Ireland 201323

Employment in the UK Wind & Marine Energy Industries
September 2013
RUK13-026-05
Cambridge Econometrics (CE) is a leading economics consultancy providing independent analysis to support decision- and policy-makers in business and government in the UK and around the world. CE has an extensive track record of innovative quantitative analysis, including the development and application of economic models to elds such as energy and environmental policy; labour market analysis and forecasting; and regional development issues in the UK and Europe. Past clients include, in the UK: the UK Commission for Employment and Skills, the Committee on Climate Change, BIS and DECC. CE also carries out analysis, including Impact Assessments, for several Directorates General of the European Commission. CE was established in 1978 to provide commercial access to research in the University of Cambridge. The company is now majority-owned by a charity, the Cambridge Trust for New Thinking in Economics. More information can be found at: Web: www.camecon.com Email: info@camecon.com Tel: 01223 533100
The Institute for Employment Research (IER) was established by the University of Warwick in 1981. The IER is one of Europes leading centres for research in the labour market eld. Its work focuses upon the operation of labour markets and socio-economic processes related to employment and unemployment in the UK at national, regional and local levels. It includes comparative European research on employment and training. The IERs research elds involve addressing major issues of socioeconomic behaviour and policy in their local, national and international setting. The work of the IER covers a wide range of research-related activities; basic and strategic research; labour market assessment and evaluation; household and employer surveys; technical assistance and consultancy; and an advanced study programme. The IER provides a range of research and analytical services to customers in both the public and private sectors. It has conducted major research projects for all the main UK government departments as well as for various international organisations, including the ILO, OECD, European Commission, and Cedefop. In recent years, in conjunction with Cambridge Econometrics, IER has undertaken a number of projects on demand for green skills across Europe. More information can be found at: Web: www2.warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/ier Email: ier@warwick.ac.uk Tel: 02476 523283
IFF Research is a long-standing fullservice research agency set up in 1965, and employing 55 staff. It specialises in studies on employment, learning and skills, working regularly for government departments and agencies including BIS, DWP, Sector Skills Councils, Skills Development Scotland, the Skills Funding Agency, and the UK Commission for Employment and Skills (UKCES). IFF undertakes studies employing the full spectrum of research methodologies, from qualitative studies involving depth interviews and focus groups, to large quantitative surveys using online, postal, telephone, and face-to-face approaches. More information can be found at: Web: www.iffresearch.com/ Email: dirs@iffresearch.com Tel: 020 7250 3035
Contents
Forewords_____________________________________________________________________ 1 Executive Summary_____________________________________________________________ 3 1. Introduction__________________________________________________________________ 2. Method of Approach__________________________________________________________ 3. Overview of Survey Results___________________________________________________ 4. Future Employment by Technology____________________________________________ 5. Employment by Nation________________________________________________________ 6. Other Characteristics of the Labour Market____________________________________ 7. Labour Market Challenges____________________________________________________ 8. Conclusions_________________________________________________________________ 6 7 9 14 39 40 43 45
Appendix ______________________________________________________________________ 46
Cover image: Siemens press picture
Forewords
reports high deployment scenario shows the potential for a further 70,000 additional direct and indirect jobs over the next decade, with nearly half of these in the offshore wind sector. However, this research also makes clear that there are a range of scenarios for growth, and that potential job numbers are closely tied to deployment. To continue to develop jobs in signicant numbers, we need substantial levels of deployment. Ambition and investment in our technologies will see an increasing percentage of our electricity needs coming from wind, wave and tidal sites. This will translate not only to the powering of millions more homes, but also to the creation of tens of thousands of jobs. This report clearly shows that if this ambition falters, we could see not only a failure to develop our sectors workforce, but also the threat of job losses. This is particularly true for offshore wind, which needs to see substantial growth in deployment over the next decade to enable it to achieve its employment potential. To achieve this new greener economy, Government and industry must work together. Government has a role to play in policy development, in ensuring that a long-term vision for the wind, wave and tidal sectors is clearly set out so that business has the condence to invest in hiring and training the next generation of workers. This means both a communication of the longterm ambition for the sector, and the right policy framework to make it happen in terms of the market support arrangements. With changes to both large- and small-scale renewables support, it is not an exaggeration to talk about the UK being at a crucial juncture in terms of whether it will develop to its true green employment potential. There is also work to do to ensure that employers are able to procure talent local to them. I was pleased to see that 91% of employees in the wind, wave
RenewableUK
It is a pleasure, once again, to present this important research into current and future employment in the UK from the wind, wave and tidal energy industries. This report, which updates research carried out in 2010, shows the role that wind, wave and tidal energy is playing as a growth engine to the UK. In the last three years, direct jobs in our industry have increased by 74% to just under 18,500, a fantastic leap which shows the growing importance of this industry. This years research also shows the number of jobs which the wind, wave and tidal industries support in the broader economy: from lorry drivers to gearbox manufacturers, there are now some 16,000 people who do not work directly in, but owe their employment to, our industries. The industry should feel rightly proud of the 34,500 people who now work for or are supporting it. Its important we remember these tens of thousands of individuals who take pride in their work, building out a new generation of low carbon energy projects, and who make up a highly skilled, highly trained workforce. These are people who deserve our support, and the condence that their decision to seek a career in this market means they can plan for their future while playing an important role in helping the UK shift to a low carbon economy. The scale of the opportunity is greater still. Looking ten years ahead, this
and tidal sector are UK citizens, and we want to ensure that this continues. The report alerts us to the fact that one third of employers surveyed reported hard-to-ll vacancies; it is crucial that as our sector grows, our peoples skills grow with it. The industry, as detailed in our newly published Skills Manifesto, would like to see stronger leadership from Government, capped by a national Government-led skills strategy, with an emphasis on furnishing workers with the skills that industry needs. There are many creative solutions to this, from funding courses in areas where there are skills shortages, to incentivising and encouraging more students into STEM subjects. This includes ensuring even more women enter the industry 20% of employees in our sectors are female, a good comparison with the rest of the energy sector, but as in many areas, we wish to be trailblazers and see that gure grow even further. Through the Renewables Training Network established by RenewableUK and the excellent apprenticeship schemes that our members run, and with the help of providers such as Energy and Utility Skills, industry is also ready and willing to do its part to ensure that our sectors have the workers we need. What this report demonstrates is the huge scale of opportunity. A growing sector today can be a booming one tomorrow, with the potential for a trebling of employment over the next decade. Challenges are in place namely the need for a long-term policy framework to allow industry the condence to invest, and the need to grasp the skills challenge by the mettle but these can be overcome to allow us to be a truly green collar nation.
Maria McCaffery Chief Executive, RenewableUK
most severe in managerial and technical professional disciplines, representing a clear demand for Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics (STEM) skills. Exacerbating this problem will be the increasing demand from other sectors of the UK economy for these same skills. This situation is not necessarily due to a lack of training or qualications, but rather the experience and context that underpin the skills of the individual. Due to the uncertainties surrounding the future development of the industry, it is very difcult to predict the quantity and timings of demand, and to prepare the workforce accordingly. Bringing in skills and experience from other sectors of the UK economy (for example, from the armed forces), up-skilling and re-skilling experienced staff, as well as recruiting through non-traditional entry routes, will be essential in meeting future skills demand. In relation to this latter point, it is encouraging to see this report present evidence that signicant progress has been made in the recruitment of women into skilled manual and technical professional roles in the industry, even if more work needs to be done at a managerial level. We must also continue to encourage new entrants into our apprenticeships and other such entry-level schemes. We are continuing to work with educators and employers on encouraging more young people to undertake STEM subjects. I am very excited about the launch of Green STEM this year, which provides increased support to employers, educators and learners to develop their knowledge skills and understanding of work within STEMrelated sectors such as the renewable sector. The insights contained within this updated report will be instrumental in preparing employers and the providers
of skills to meet the future demands of the industry in a timely and effective manner. The challenge will be to ensure that the UK has the skills available in the workforce to capitalise on this job creation and maximise the economic benet to the UK. The consequences of not achieving this could be signicant in terms of increased levels of poaching between employers, as well as employers being driven to recruit more of their skilled labour from outside of the UK. Working in collaboration and partnership with organisations like RenewableUK, and through the continued support from our members and the UK Commission for Education and Skills, we have developed a strong network of education and skills providers across the UK to support the wind and marine industries, and we will continue to work with them to share best practice and further develop their capability to deliver against industry needs. This is clearly a rapidly changing landscape that requires us all to work together to ensure that we maintain an understanding of the evolving picture and develop solutions that will deliver the right people, with the right skills, at the right time. Taking such a collaborative approach is the only real solution to ensure that the UKs wind and marine energy sector is able to meet its medium and long-term skills needs from the domestic labour market.
Energy & Utility Skills

I am delighted to present this second round of research on the workforce and skills needs of the UKs wind and marine energy industry. This report, which builds on the research carried out in 2010, reports that the growth in employment in the wind and marine energy industries over the last two years has been considerable in fact, direct jobs have increased by 74% to just under 18,500. In a period of economic uncertainty, this growth is a good news story for the sector. While the growth over the last two years has been higher than anticipated in the 2010 report, the projections looking forward show less ambition than previously reported. Lack of clarity in Government policy and nancial uncertainties are likely to have played a key role in this situation. Despite this, the report highlights the continued potential for growth, and we must therefore make sure we are ready to meet the ongoing demand for labour, where and when it is needed. The highly skilled nature of the wind and marine energy workforce means that many employers are nding it increasingly difcult to attract the required skills and experience when projects start. In fact, the proportion of employers reporting hard-to-ll vacancies has increased by 42% over the last two years. These shortages are
Neil Robertson Chief Executive, Energy & Utility Skills and the National Skills Academy for Power
Executive Summary
Working for a Green Britain and Northern Ireland

Use and generation of energy is changing. The British and Northern Irish markets are both seeing rapid growth of renewable energy as older generating capacity is replaced in the progression to low-carbon electricity generation. A signicant part of this growth is wind and marine renewable energy. Onshore and offshore wind now provides half of the UKs renewable electricity provision. As we near 2020 these two technologies are expected to play a major part in meeting UK 2020 renewable energy targets. Beyond 2020 both onshore and offshore wind, alongside an increasing presence of wave and tidal stream power, are expected to remain important in the UKs efforts to build out new sources of generation as it decarbonises electricity generation while reducing price volatility and dependence on imported fuel sources. Alongside the important role wind and marine energy can play in keeping the lights on and tackling climate change, this research looks at how these sectors are making a contribution to our economy as important sources of employment. The value of wind and marine comes not just from the electricity generated, but also through the jobs they create in communities across Great Britain and Northern Ireland. Employment in the sector is growing, and under healthy market predictions it looks set to continue to grow, providing a diverse range of employment in manufacturing, construction, development maintenance and wider support industries. Since 2010 the number of people directly employed in the industry has increased by 74% from 10,579 to 18,465, evidencing the sectors importance given the slowdown in the wider economy. This increase can be seen across different types of
employment. The largest increase has been in construction and installation, with an additional 2,367 now employed. Across the industry, up to 30% of people work in construction and installation, 25% in planning and development, 18% in support services, 16% in operations and maintenance and 10% in manufacturing. This reects an industry that is actively building out new projects, supplying equipment and maintaining existing plant. Signicantly, the number of indirect jobs has also increased. Some 15,908 indirect jobs are now supported by the wind and marine industry, up from 10,555 in 2010. This means that more employees working in companies who might not be principally identied as renewable energy companies are now supporting the industry as a result of a greater degree of interdependency and specialisation in parts of our economy.
those demanded in other sectors of the economy; however, as a workforce, the sector has proportionally more highly skilled occupations than the UK economy as a whole. This highlights the need for a coherent strategy to promote the supply of highly skilled workers, but also illustrates the competition that the wind and marine energy sector faces in order to attract future talent. The level of growth also means that the sector is experiencing the problem of hard-to-ll vacancies, with a third of rms now reporting they had ongoing vacancies, up from a quarter of rms in 2010. This is an economy-wide issue, but demonstrates how there is competition within the UK economy for a highly skilled workforce. 20% of the sectors workforce are women this is lower than the proportion of women in technical and professional occupations in the UK, but proportionally higher than in the power sector overall, thereby demonstrating the sectors success in attracting women to the workforce. However, women are still under-represented in management occupations, indicating that more needs to be done to attract women into this sector and to provide opportunities across different roles. Looking at how our people are employed, since 2010 the sector has seen a signicant shift away from contract jobs towards permanent employment, which signals condence in the growth of the industry. This trend will continue across all scenarios in the future. The size and type of employer is also diverse: more than 80% of all employers in wind and marine employ fewer than 250 people; 56% employ fewer than 25 people. The fact that SMEs are at the heart of the sector, and are driving the growth in employment, shows the depth and diversity of the industry. As a consequence, skills and enterprise support needs to be structured in a way that can be easily accessed by these companies.
A UK-wide highly skilled employment base

Since 2010, direct employment in the sector has increased by 7,886, and 5,353 more jobs are indirectly supporting the sector through the wider supply chain. The 34,373 full-time equivalent jobs supported directly and indirectly by wind and marine energy are an important reminder of the growing size of the sector, and its inuence throughout the UK economy. 10% of the direct workforce is mobile, a exible, responsive workforce moving around the UK to meet demand. The remainder is rooted more rmly in one place. 60% of employment in wind and marine energy is based in England, 20% in Scotland, and the remainder in Wales and Northern Ireland. And of this UK-based workforce, the vast majority 91% are UK citizens, a fact which demonstrates the ability of the industry to recruit, attract and retain employment on a domestic level. The skillsets required in the wind and marine energy sector are similar to
Semi- skilled or operative job
Skilled manual or technical jobs
4
Whole economy Technical prof essional jobs Renewables
Management
10
15
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% of female employment
The sector by technology & turnover

The overarching growth in wind and marine is evidenced from looking at each of the technologies individually. In onshore wind there are now 9,911 direct FTE jobs, an increase of 3,311, or 50%, since 2010. Notably, employment in the small-scale wind sector has increased by a factor of four from 590 to 2,464 FTEs. The workforce in the offshore sector has doubled in size since 2010, from 3,151 to 6,830. And this growth is mirrored in marine, where the number of direct FTE jobs now stands at 1,724, up from the 800 jobs recorded in 2010. Turnover of our sector has increased from an estimated 2.8bn in 2010 to 8.1bn in 2013, a near trebling in the size of the sector. This comes against a tough economic background and highlights an increasingly important role that the sector has played in underpinning economic growth throughout the UK. At the same time, labour productivity has increased. There has been a more than 50% increase in nominal labour productivity since the last survey, showing that industry is managing its costs well and learning how to deliver more cost-effectively as it grows. While increased labour productivity may lessen potential employment growth, the sector is still likely to see strong growth in a highly skilled and productive workforce.
charts 2013
CHARTS - PROJECTIONS
DIRECT EMPLOYMENT ACROSS WIND AND MARINE ENERGY, 2013
Direct Employment Across Wind And Marine Energy, 2013
36% 5% 13% 37% 9%
Onshore: large Onshore: medium Onshore: small Of f shore Marine
Total employment: 18,645 FTE Survey Results from mid-2013
Future industry growth

Projecting out ten years to 2023, our model predicts continued growth in employment, but this is dependent on a healthy market. Companies working within the wind and marine sectors are investing in premises and people across the UK. The scenarios in Working for a Green Britain and Northern Ireland demonstrate high growth potential in this sector over 70,000 additional direct and indirect jobs could be created by 2023 in the high scenarios. The high
DIRECT EMPLOYMENT ACROSS scenarios are achievable however, WIND AND MARINE ENERGY, 2013 lower growth scenarios are also possible. With lower deployment levels come smaller opportunities for growth. Low levels of growth in onshore, offshore and wave and tidal would mean employment in the industry would fail to double in size in the next ten years. In many traditional sectors or individual companies, to double in size over ten years would be recognised as a signicant achievement. However, for a sector which has grown by over 74% in three years, this would represent a marked scaling back of ambition, and in some parts of the industry could actually result a fall in numbers employed. The critical issue is momentum. Our report shows the industry is currently DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN SMALL going throughACTIVITIES, a period2013 of policy SCALE ONSHORE uncertainty, and the scenarios considered take into account the implications of the lower levels of deployment possible under Electricity Market Reform and fundable through the Governments levy control framework. Rising employment between 2010 and 2013, which was broadly in line with our 2011 medium scenario predictions, highlights an industry which has invested in anticipation of the growing market. The scenarios show that to maintain substantial growth in employment there needs to be a clear trajectory of increased deployment.
Our more conservative mid-range scenario is that by 2023, 52,540 people could be employed directly and indirectly. This represents a reduction in forecast employment from the equivalent 10-year period in our 2011 report due 62% England to the lower levels of deployment now 4% Wales assumed. The scenario reects an 21% Scotland industry that is maturing and learning N.Ireland how to deliver in 4% a more cost-effective 9% Mobile and productive manner. However, it would also reect a slowdown in the sector because of policy uncertainty and resulting caution in the industry as to levels of investment and recruitment. Total employment: 18,645 FTE The fact that under this from scenario more Survey Results mid-2013 than 50,000 people would be employed in wind and marine technologies and their supply chain means that these industries would still represent a signicant opportunity for the UK economy. A certain level of deployment and continued momentum is needed to get there, however, and industry needs to maintain installation progress to 2020 29% Site Planning or development to have the capacity to continue building 13% Manuf acture or manufacturing design and growing out to 2023 and to the end 24% Construction & Installation of the decade. Our report shows that 15% Operation and maintenance below a certain deployment rate, growth 16% services and other activities slows or evenSupport stops. The consequence Decommissioning 1% of this is that the UK would secure a 2% Specialised Transport lower proportion of the economic benet per MW developed.
5
charts-summaryprojections
EMPLOYMENT ACROSS WIND AND MARINE ENERGY, 2013 AND 2023
While the sector has delivered strong growth in these difcult years, policy support is critical to ensure that this continues apace in the coming decade. Our report demonstrates the importance of a healthy and consistent build programme. The high scenarios demonstrate what can be achieved with strong levels of deployment and policy certainty. Here exists a virtuous circle in which continued growth leads to continued condence, high growth in employment and cost reduction, which makes future growth more likely. However, between the mid- and lowrange scenarios a vicious cycle exists, in which low levels of deployment mean industry fails to get past a certain tipping point; this level of investment is insufcient to trigger the skills development and training of a workforce for the industry. This report shows a burgeoning industry with substantial levels of growth in employment, and even greater potential over the next decade provided the conditions are right.
Employment Across Wind And Marine Energy, 2013 And 2023
120000 100000 80000 60000 40000 20000 0 2013 (Survey) Indirect Direct
Low
Medium 2023
High
1. Introduction Working for a Green Britain, published in 2011,1 provided the rst detailed assessment of the UK wind and marine energy sector and its prospects. Since that rst study there have been major developments in the sector, with installed capacity nearly doubling since 2010.
onshore wind sectors are now identied separately, whereas before they were not distinguished The analysis of the installation life cycle has been extended to include decommissioning/repowering at end of life.
However, in the wake of a global recession and a shift in policy sentiment, the industry faces greater challenges than were envisaged back in 2011. This is reected in a more cautious outlook on renewables deployment in the coming decade in this report compared to the previous one. This report provides an up-to-date assessment of employment in the wind and marine energy sector, its current challenges and its future prospects. It follows a similar approach to the original Working for a Green Britain study, combining a detailed survey of companies with projections modelling to examine the employment potential of alternative renewables futures. Where possible, comparison is made with the results of the earlier study. This study goes beyond the previous analysis with the following three extensions: Current employment in the sector is reported in more detail at the level of countries, as well as for the UK as a whole by gender by UK citizenship; The large- and medium-scale
The report is structured as follows. Chapter 2 provides an overview of the study approach and Chapter 3 summarises the key ndings from the survey. Chapter 4 then reviews in detail the current structure and future prospects of the sector, by individual technology. Chapter 5 presents the breakdown of current employment by nation, while Chapters 6 and 7 provide information on the current structure of the labour market, and current and future challenges, respectively. The report concludes in Chapter 8. Further details on the study approach can be found in the Appendix at the end of this report.
1. Volume 1: www.renewableuk.com/en/publications/reports.cfm/Working-for-a-Green-Britain-Volume-1 Volume 2: www.renewableuk.com/en/publications/reports.cfm/Working-for-a-Green-Britain-Volume-2
2. Method of Approach
2.1 Overview
The approach taken in this study builds on that applied in the previous 2011 study, comprising: A survey, in mid-2013, of companies in the wind and marine energy sector, to identify current employment in the sector (and to compare it to the employment measured last time), as well as to identify wider labour-market issues such as the demand and supply of critical skills and competences; A modelling exercise to project future employment potential, out to 2023, based on three alternative projections about future deployment of wind and marine energy in the UK and the rest of the world.
measure the effective number of fulltime employees. The implication is that one FTE may represent more than one actual employee. Direct employment covers employees who spend the majority of their working day on activities specic to wind or marine energy. Indirect employment covers employees whose principal activity is not wind or marine energy-specic, but who work in sectors that supply goods and services to the wind and marine energy sector. In that sense, their employment is indirectly supported by the UK wind and marine energy sector.2 An example might be a supplier of gearbox components which has 100 employees and sells a fth of its output to the wind and marine sector; the remainder is sold elsewhere in the UK or abroad. In this example, the company has 20 jobs which are indirectly related to wind and marine energy.
What activities are identied?

This study identies the following activities within the UK wind and marine energy sector, covering the entire asset lifecycle of these sites: Site planning and development; Manufacturing and design; Construction and installation; Operations and maintenance; Specialist transport; Decommissioning/recommissioning; Specialist Support Services and Other. Of the above, Decommissioning/ recommissioning is a new category added since the previous study that recognises that some installed capacity in the UK has reached the end of its life and has either been decommissioned or repowered. Specialist transport was previously included as part of Specialist Support Services and Other. Contracted and permanent employment This study distinguishes between: Contracted employment, which concerns temporary employment in activities sustained by the construction of new (or decommissioning/repowering of old) wind and marine sites; Permanent employment, which is employment sustained by the requirement to operate and maintain current installed capacity, i.e. these jobs exist for the entire operational life of the assets.
Further detail on each can be found in the Appendix at the end of this report. Note that the survey for the 2011 study was carried out in late 2010. Consequently, comparisons to the previous survey are comparisons to employment in 2010, while references to the accompanying report are to 2011.
The technologies covered

The wind and marine energy sector in this study refers to ve technology types: 1. Large-scale onshore wind, consisting of wind turbines over 500kW in size; 2. Medium-scale onshore wind, consisting of wind turbines between 100kW and 500kW in size; 3. Small-scale wind systems, for wind turbines less than 100kW in size; 4. Offshore wind, covering wind turbines deployed in a marine environment; 5. Marine energy, for wave and tidal stream energy technologies. Of the above, medium-scale onshore wind is now separately identied (whereas in the previous study it was included in large-scale onshore wind).
2.2 Key definitions

Employment
The study considers direct (wind and marine energy-related) employment as well as indirect employment (jobs in the rest of the UK economy), on a Full-Time Equivalent (FTE) basis. Full-Time Equivalent (FTE) employment is a measure of the number of employees in a rm or sector. Employees who regularly work more than 30 hours per week are counted as one FTE, while those that work parttime (less than 30 hours per week) are counted as half a FTE. This is in order to
In this context, permanent employment is long-term in nature, whereas contracted employment depends on (continued) construction of new projects.
2. The model applied for this study also considers induced employment, which arises from workers spending (part of) their additional income, further increasing economic activity. It is usually more relevant for analysis at the local level, rather than at the level of nations or the entire UK (in part because it includes an element of double-counting). As such, the results reported are for direct and indirect employment only, excluding induced employment.
2.3 The scenarios

There are three sets of projections considered and presented in this report. High deployment: this scenario posits strong and consistent support specically for wind, wave and tidal in order to meet renewable targets in 2020, as well as to enhance energy security and capture cost and wider economic benets thereafter, including, as far as possible, to maximise employment in the sector in the UK. Medium deployment: in this scenario, support for wind, wave and tidal exists but is weaker and inconsistent. A wider set of renewable technologies is relied on to meet 2020 targets, resulting in lower delivery of the technologies under consideration here, and growth thereafter is strongly dependent on cost reduction. The lack of clear support for the sector results in the UK capturing a lower proportion of the industrial benets, particularly from offshore wind, which is reected in the fact that this scenario is revised down from the previous report. Low deployment: this scenario assumes that support is substantially withdrawn from wind, wave and tidal, resulting in low or zero growth. Only the cheapest low-hanging fruit projects are developed, which are limited due to higher planning hurdles being imposed (particularly on onshore wind), and dependent on cost reductions that have come forward due to deployment in other countries. In the extreme, this scenario results in no deployment of the marine technologies after 2018 as they are not deemed to be worth the long-term investment required.
The scenarios considered in this 2013 study are less ambitious than those used in the 2011 study. This reects recent and expected future periods of greater policy uncertainty, and takes into account the implications of the proposed levy-control framework in the case of the higher-growth scenarios. The lower-deployment scenarios in this study represent policy failure, rather than simply lower rates of growth (as was the case in the 2011 study). In addition to the assumptions around deployment, the scenarios also embody alternative views on: The extent to which the UK will be able to supply manufactured components to support wind and marine energy in overseas markets; The extent to which the UK will be able to meet its supply-chain requirements with UK production (rather than imports).
In each case, higher export opportunities and larger increases in domestic supply correspond to higher levels of UK deployment, while lower exports and little-to-no increase in indigenous production correspond to lower levels of UK deployment. The high scenario is thus optimistic from both a UK and global deployment point of view, and the low scenario is similarly pessimistic across the board.
Semi- skilled or operative job
Skilled manual or technical jobs
9
Technical prof essional jobs
Whole economy Renewables
3. Overview of Survey Results

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Management
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3.1 Current employment

Direct employment
The sector is larger and more broadbased than in 2010 Based on the results derived from the survey, the wind and marine energy sector in 2013 directly employed 18,465 FTE across the sector and had a turnover of 8.1bn (predominantly in the more developed large onshore and offshore technologies). The 2010 survey reported employment of 10,579 FTE, meaning that employment in the sector has increased by 7,700 jobs (74%) over 201013. Turnover in the sector in 2010 was estimated to be around 2.8bn (indicating a near-trebling in the size of the sector in the last three years, by turnover). The new survey results imply a greater than 50% increase in labour productivity (as measured by turnover per worker). Of those 18,465 direct jobs, just over a third each are associated with the offshore and large onshore technologies. The next largest technology in terms of direct employment is small onshore, which employs around 13% of the total wind and marine energy workforce. Some 10% of the workforce is employed in the marine sector and 5% in the burgeoning medium-scale onshore sector. Employment in each technology type has increased since 2010, with the largest increases seen in offshore and small- and medium-scale onshore technologies. As a result the prole of employment by technology is more evenly distributed than it was in 2010, when more than half of all employment was in the large onshore wind sector. The largest single activity within the sector in terms of employment is
charts 2013
3.1: Direct Employment Across Wind And Marine Energy by Technology, 2013
36% 5% 13% 37% 9%
Onshore: large Onshore: medium Onshore: small Of f shore Marine
DIRECT EMPLOYMENT construction and ACROSS installation, which WIND AND MARINE ENERGY, 2013 accounts for 2530% of the workforce. A further 25% of the workforce is engaged in site planning and development. Operation and maintenance and support and other activities each account for 1520% of jobs in the sector, while a further 10% are in manufacturing and manufacturing design. There are relatively few jobs associated with decommissioning (as the number of sites that have been decommissioned or repowered is much smaller than the amount of new build) or specialist transport activities.
The latest survey indicates that the vast majority (91%) of employees in UK wind and marine energy are UK citizens. In all technologies the proportion exceeds 90%, with small onshore wind reporting 62% England a proportion closer to 95%.
4% Wales
Compared to 2010, employment in all activities has increased, with the largest increase in overall jobs in construction DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN SMALL SCALE ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013 and installation (an increase of 2,367) as a result of increases in the amount of newly built capacity. The number of jobs in manufacturing and manufacturing design and maintenance and operations activities has also increased, by a total of 2,224, since 2010. The increases in the former reect continued growth in new build, while the latter reects the consequent increases in operational capacity in the system.
The majority of the jobs directly 4% N.Ireland associated with the wind and marine 9% Mobile energy sector are in England (more than 60%). The sector in Scotland accounts for about 20% of the overall jobs (3,827 FTE), with the remainder in Wales, Northern Ireland or considered mobile Total employment: 18,645 FTE Survey Results from mid-2013 (not allocated to a specic nation). Mobile employment accounts for some 10% of employment in the sector, with the majority operating in offshore wind. These mobile workers are UK-based and involved in activities across Great Britain and Northern Ireland, travelling to sites to carry out activities wherever the need arises. Although the total number of direct jobs in the sector is 29% Site Planning or development lower in Scotland than in England, the 13% Manuf acture or manufacturing design sector accounts for a higher proportion 24% Construction & Installation of total employment in Scotland than 15% Operation and maintenance it does in England. As a proportion of 16% Support services and other activities total employment, the wind and marine
1% Decommissioning 2% Specialised Transport
21%
Scotland
Management Management 20 25 30 35 40 0 0 5 10 10 15 20 20 30 25 30 40 35 50 40
emale employment
% of female employment % of female employment
10
Across theOnshore: four nations, most large 36% employment is in onshore wind Onshore: medium 5% (comprising large, medium and small13% Onshore: small scale turbines). Between one-third and 37% ofOf f shore one-half employment is accounted for by 9% large onshore wind, and 1020% Marine by small onshore, depending on the nation. Offshore wind accounts for the next-largest proportion across the nations, in the case of mobile Total though, employment: 18,645 FTE Survey Results from mid-2013 employment, there are more workers in offshore, rather than onshore, wind. The vast majority of employment relating to small onshore wind systems is located in England (almost 1,436 jobs, or 60% of the total employment in that technology), followed by Scotland (645 jobs, or just over 25% of the total). The remaining 15% of employment in this 62% England sector is split more 4% Wales or less evenly across Wales, Northern Ireland and the mobile 21% Scotland workforce (equating to between 100 and 4% N.Ireland 150 jobs in each case).
9% Mobile
charts 2013
energy sectors in Wales and Northern Ireland account for a slightly larger share than in England, but not as high as in Scotland.
3.2: Direct Employment Across Wind And Marine Energy by Activity, 2013
25% 11% 27% 16% 18% 1% 2%
Site Planning or development Onshore: large 36% Manuf acture or manufacturing design Construction & Installation Onshore: medium 5% Operation and maintenance 13% Onshore: small Support services and other activities 37% Of f shore Decommissioning Marine 9% Specialised Transport
Total employment: 18,645 FTE Survey Results from mid-2013 Total employment: 18,645 FTE Survey Results from mid-2013
DIRECT EMPLOYMENT ACROSS WIND AND MARINE ENERGY, 2013 3.3: Direct Employment Across DIRECT EMPLOYMENT ACROSS WIND AND MARINE ENERGY, 2013
Wind And Marine Energy by Nation, 2013
12000 Marine 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 England Wales Scotland N.Ireland MobileTotal employment: 18,645 FTE 62% 4% 21% 4% 9% England Of f shore Onshore: small Wales Onshore: medium Scotland Onshore: large N.Ireland Mobile Survey Results from mid-2013
The majority of employment in marine technologies is located in England and Scotland. Marine employment constitutes the highest proportion Total employment: 18,645 FTE Survey Results from mid-2013 of direct wind and marine energy employment in Scotland, reecting the areas larger number of test facilities and operational devices.
Survey Results from mid-2013
Indirect employment
The 18,465 FTE jobs directly identied with the wind and marine energy sector in turnSite support elsewhere 29% Planning employment or development in the economy, further up the supply 13% Manuf acture or manufacturing design chain. As dened in this study, the rms 24% Construction & Installation that are further up the supply chain are 15% Operation and maintenance not classied as wind and marine energy 16% Support services and other activities sector rms; they are not engaged in Decommissioning 1% direct activities. Instead, these rms 2% Specialised Transport supply more generic goods and services as would be required by a range of UK Total employment: 2,464 FTE businesses, including manufactured Survey Results from mid-2013 components (e.g. computers, as well as various engineering equipment and structural components) and
ACTIVITIES, 2013 DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN SMALL services (e.g. auditing of accounts). SCALE ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013 Such activities are indirectly related to wind and marine energy because they represent employment that arises elsewhere in the UK economy as a result of activity within the wind and marine sector. It is estimated that some 15,908 indirect FTE jobs are supported in this way. Of these, 3,649 are in manufacturing and 5,849 in business service support activities. In total, UK wind and marine energy supports 34,373 direct and indirect jobs.
DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN OFFSHORE
The ratio of indirect jobs to direct jobs in this 2013 study is higher than thatDIRECT reported in the 2011 study. The EMPLOYMENT ACROSS WIND AND MARINE ENERGY, 2023 implication is that one2013 jobAND in the wind
Total employment: 6,830 FTE 3.2 Future prospects
and marine energy sector supports more jobs in the economy now than it would have back in 2010. This is a feature of more recent ofcial data on the structure of the UK economy, which indicate a greater degree of interdependency 19% Site Planning or development 29% Site Planning or development and/or 10% specialisation in UK economic Manuf acture or manufacturing design 13% Manuf acture or manufacturing design sectors with links to wind and 36% Construction & Installation marine 3 24% energy. For Operation example, indirect Construction Installationrms may 18% and & maintenance 15% now outsource more functions other Operation and maintenance 14% Support services and other to activities 16% rms, whereas previously they might Support services and other activities Decommissioning 1% have opted carry out those activities Decommissioning 1% to 2% Specialised Transport themselves. 2% Specialised Transport
Survey Results from2,464 mid-2013 Total employment: FTE Survey Results from mid-2013
The outlook for employment in the wind and marine energy sector is
CROSS WIND AND Y, 2013 AND 2023

mmaryprojections
3. Compared to the previous study, the ratios of indirect to direct jobs in other UK economic sectors vary, with some exhibiting higher ratios compared to last time, and others having lower ratios. 60000 Wave 50000 Of f shore
DIRECT EM AND MARI
11
3.4: Direct and Indirect Employment Across Wind and Marine Energy, 2013 and 2023
120000 100000 80000 60000 40000 20000 0 2013 (Survey) Indirect Direct
in construction activity). Marine and small onshore are the technologies where there is the greatest divergence in employment growth between the scenarios.
60000 50000 40000
Low
Medium 2023
High
considered under three alternative scenarios, providing a range of potential employment outcomes. The high scenario: this scenario posits strong and consistent support specically for wind, wave and tidal, in order to meet renewable targets in 2020, as well as to enhance energy security, and capture cost and wider economic benets thereafter, including, as far as possible, to maximise employment in the sector in the UK; The medium scenario: in this scenario, support for wind, wave and tidal exists but is weaker and inconsistent. A wider set of renewable technologies is relied on to meet 2020 targets, resulting in lower delivery of the technologies under consideration here, and growth thereafter is strongly dependent on cost reduction. The lack of clear support for the sector results in the UK capturing a lower proportion of the industrial benets, particularly of offshore wind, which is reected in the fact that this scenario is revised down from the previous report; The low scenario: this scenario assumes that support is substantially withdrawn from wind, wave and tidal, resulting in low or zero growth. Only the cheapest low-hanging fruit projects are developed, which are limited
due to higher planning hurdles being imposed (particularly on onshore wind), and dependent on cost reductions that have come forward due to deployment in other countries. In the extreme, this scenario results in no deployment of marine technologies after 2018, as they are not deemed to be worth the long-term investment required. Direct employment in wind and marine energy in 2023 could fall slightly, to 16,443 in the low scenario, or rise, to 55,683 in the high scenario (which would in turn support almost as many jobs again indirectly through the supply chain). The largest increase in direct employment over 201323 will be in offshore wind; it accounts for more than half of all direct employment by 2023 in each scenario, reecting its importance in a renewables-led low-carbon future, particularly in the new high scenario (an ambitious, but achievable, level of deployment). Due to the more advanced nature of onshore wind deployment, and its expected slower rate of future growth, large onshore employment is not expected to increase so signicantly. Indeed, overall employment associated with this technology could fall if installed capacity only increases modestly (although the employment would favour operational jobs, rather than the kind sustained by continued growth
While direct employment in a technology could fall back from current levels in the 30000 more pessimistic scenarios (e.g. large onshore in the low growth scenario), the 20000 falls are seen in activities associated with the early phases of a facilitys life, 10000 such as planning and development; 0 employment in the more sustained activities such as operations and maintenance are generally higher than current levels. This reects the transition from an industry where employment is sustained by construction activity to one where most of the activity is in operations to supply renewable electricity. For the wind and marine energy sector as a whole, there is a large projected increase in permanent jobs those which are in place as long as the asset is operational in each of the three scenarios. The current projections predict slower growth in direct employment in the wind and marine energy sector than did the earlier 2010 survey-based set of projections. In the analysis from the previous study, the low scenario projected direct employment of 28,700 in 2021, while the high scenario projected a potential employment gure 2.5 times the low scenario value, at 72,600 direct jobs. Depending on the scenario chosen, much of the reason for the lower growth now projected lies in a more cautious set of projections for future UK deployment of wind and marine energy. This reects delays in the construction pipeline owing to policy uncertainty (principally around the Electricity Market Reform). Current assumptions for future wind and marine energy capacity in 2021 range between 25.8GW and 42.6GW, while the 2010-based projections for the same year were between 25.7GW and almost 52GW.4
4. Differences in the technology mix between vintages of assumptions will also be a factor behind the variation in projections, as will differences between the latest survey and levels of employment previously projected for 2012.
DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MARINE ACTIVITIES, 2013
1% 2%
Decommissioning Specialised Transport

DIRECT EMPLOYMENT ACROSS WIND AND MARINE ENERGY, 2013 AND 2023
12
Figure 3.5: Direct Employment Across Wind and Marine Energy by Technology, 2013 and 2023 further along the lifecycle as deployment 27% Site Planning or development
19%
AND MARINE ENERGY, 2013 AND 2023 Manuf acture or manufacturing design
60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 2013 (Survey) Low Medium 2023 High
REVISED
Figure 3.6: Permanent and Contracted Employment Across Wind and Marine Energy, 2013 and 2023
60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 Contracted Permanent
DIRECT EMPLOYMENT ACROSS WIND increases. In particular, a much greater proportion of employers are now 20% Construction & Installation engaged in installation and maintenance 16% activities than was the case in 2010. Operation and maintenance A high proportion of employers are 16% Support services and other activities 60000 Wave engaged in both construction/installation 1% Decommissioning Contracted 50000 and operations/maintenance. Many of Of f shore Permanent 1% Specialised Transport those are also engaged in planning/ Small Onshore 40000 development and manufacturing, though Medium Onshore 30000 the degree of overlap is somewhat Large Onshore lower. Total employment: 1,724 FTE 20000 Survey Results from mid-2013 10000of employers are small A high proportion businesses; over half of all employers 0 in the sector employ fewer than 25 2013 people, and 84% of employers have 250 (Survey) employees or fewer. There has been a small increase in the representation of large rms in the sector since 2010.
REV
Low
0
2013 (Survey) Low Medium 2023 High
The occupational prole of the wind and marine energy sector is skewed towards relatively higher-skill occupations than the UK economy as a whole, with a higher proportion of jobs in management and technical and professional occupations reported. Within the industry, there is a relatively high proportion of people working in skilled trade occupations in the offshore sector, while the large- and mediumscale onshore wind sector and maritime sector have a relative dependency on professional and associate professional occupations. The industry is increasingly experiencing the problem of hard-to-ll vacancies, with around a third of rms reporting they had such a vacancy during the past year. In 2010 only a quarter of rms reported the issue. Overall, there were 1,000 hard-to-ll vacancies in the previous year, representing around 8% of the workforce. The most common factor for not being able to ll a vacancy is reported to be a lack of skills, qualications or experience for the job. Across all industries in the UK, a large proportion of hard-to-ll vacancies are in an occupation on which the wind and marine energy sector is particularly dependent. The sector is therefore in competition with many other sectors for people with the same skills. Just over 20% of the wind and marine
3.3 Other labour market issues

Most rms in the wind and marine energy sector are engaged in the onshore wind subsector, within which the large-scale subsector is the largest employer. Around 60% of rms are involved in offshore wind, and just under 40% are engaged in wave and tidal energy. These gures imply that many rms in the sector are diversied (and more so than in 2010), operating in multiple technology areas. There are, perhaps unsurprisingly, substantial overlaps between the wind technologies, with more than half of rms in engaged in onshore wind also engaged in offshore
wind, and vice versa. There are also substantial overlaps between offshore wind and marine energy, though fewer companies are likely to be involved in a combination of onshore wind and marine energy. The proportion of rms engaged in all activities has increased since the 2010 survey, suggesting that rms have become more vertically integrated as the sector has matured: the typical rm operates in more activity types than it would have back in 2010, reecting the changing needs of the sector. Site planning and development remains a dominant activity among rms in the sector (particularly in onshore wind), but the latest survey does begin to show a shift in emphasis towards activities
13
energy workforce is female. This is similar to the power sector as a whole but below the UK average,5 with women particularly under-represented in management occupations. However, compared to the power sector as a whole, the wind and marine energy sector has been more successful in employing women in technical and professional occupations, with over a quarter of the jobs in this category held by women. The wind and marine energy sector also does somewhat better than the power-sector average for employing women in skilled trades. Overall, there remains a need for more effort to attract women into the sector and to provide opportunities across the range of available careers.
5. A degree of caution is advised when drawing comparisons with other sectors of the economy, because the wind and marine energy survey undertaken for this study is survey of employers, whereas the existing surveys for other sectors are of individuals (employees).
25% 11% 27% 16% 18% 1% 2%
Site Planning or development Manuf acture or manufacturing design Construction & Installation Operation and maintenance Support services and other activities Decommissioning Specialised Transport
27% 16% 57%
Construction & Installation Operation and maintenance Other direct
14
4. Future Employment by Technology

4.1 Large-scale onshore wind
Recent developments
DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN LARGE Figure 4.1: Direct Employment SCALE ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013
in Large-Scale Onshore Activities, 2013
nd
ORE
Large-scale onshore wind schemes are Marine those with turbines over 500kW in size. Of f shore They account for the vast majority of Onshore: small current installed onshore wind capacity. Onshore: medium Since 2010, installed capacity has Onshore: large increased by 2GW. Schemes that have Survey Results started operating recently include the from mid-2013 144MW site at Fallago and the 53MW in Baillie, both in Scotland, while work is currently underway on constructing arrays such as the 66MW Berryburn site Mobile in Scotland. Development of onshore wind farms overall has continued apace over the last three years, and there is the potential for further strong growth in capacity in the future. Among the schemes to gain consent recently are the 76MW scheme at Strathy North, the 177MW Dorenell project, the 370.8MW Viking Wind Project (all in Scotland), 19% Site Planning or development and the 228MW Pen Y Cymoedd site in 10% Manuf acture or manufacturing design South Wales.
36% Construction & Installation 18%
28% 10% 20% 16% 24% 1% 1%
EMPLOYMENT ACROSS LARGE ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023
DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MARINE FigureACTIVITIES, 4.2: Employment Across 2013
Large Onshore Activities, 2013 and 2023
16000 14000 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 2013 (Survey)
DIRECT EMPLOYMENT ACROSS WIND
Indirect Direct
27% 19% 20% 16% 16% 1% 1% Site Planning or development Manuf acture or manufacturing design Construction & Installation Operation and maintenance Support services and other activities Decommissioning Specialised Transport
14% 1%
Current employment
Decommissioning
Operation and maintenance
High
Medium Support services and other activities
From the survey it is estimated that Low Specialised Transport employment in large-scale onshore wind stands at 6,609 FTE, an increase of 600 FTE since 2010. Total employment: 6,830 FTE Of these Survey Results from mid-2013 6,609 FTE jobs, 1,328 FTE jobs are in construction and installation. Operation and maintenance activities employ 1,038 2021 FTE, 2022 and2023 645 FTE are engaged directly in manufacturing or manufacturing design.
2%
Low
Total employment: 1,724 FTE Survey Results from mid-2013 Medium High 2023
Future ED VERSION
prospects
Wave Of f shore Small Onshore
Overview
Three scenarios have been modelled, Medium Onshore with the following outcomes:
Large Onshore
Medium 2023
High deployment scenario: 16.95GW capacity in 2023; 8,596 direct FTE, 6,418 indirect FTE Medium deployment scenario: High 15.2GW capacity in 2023; 6,515 direct FTE, 4,489 indirect FTE
AND MARINE ENERGY, 2013 AND 2023 Key assumptions made in each scenario Low deployment scenario: 11.55GW REVISED DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN LARGE relate to the extent to which the UK also capacity in 2023; 4,740 direct FTE, REVISED VERSION ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM GROWTH provides goods and services to supply 3,302 indirect FTE SCENARIO large onshore deployment elsewhere 60000 in Europe. In the high scenario, the UK The outcome for direct employment is projected to be able to contribute depends critically on the level of future Contracted 50000 to the development of some 17GW capacity. Under the high Permanent deployment 40000 of cumulative capacity elsewhere in scenario, employment increases by Europe by 2023 (23GW a year beyond 1,900 30000 between the start of 2013 and 2020). This is approximately the same through to 2023, whereas it could fall 20000 total capacity as thatMW anticipated to be by anJob equivalent amount in the low Support and ot 20000 10000 installed in the UK by 2023. UK supply deployment scenario. However, in each 10000 to overseas markets is much lower in Specialised the scenario there are more long-term jobs tran 0 medium and low scenarios, amounting those associated with the running of 8000 Decommission 2013 Low Medium 15000 respectively, to 2,100MWHigh and 850MW the schemes in 2023 than there are 2023 (Survey) Operation/main with correspondingly lower annual currently.
6000
10000 4000
Construction/in
Design/manuf a
15
DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN LARGE ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023
REVISED VERSION
edium 2023
rates of deployment (100150MW in the medium scenario and almost no growth in the low scenario over the entire period). These scenarios are less optimistic about the future level of installed capacity than the earlier 2010-based scenarios due to ongoing policy and political uncertainty in a number of areas. These previous scenarios had a range for installed capacity in 2020 of 1016GW, supporting employment of between 6,500 and 11,900 FTE. In comparison, the current scenarios have capacity in High 2020 ranging from 10.2GW14.2GW. These revisions to the scenarios reect greater policy uncertainty than was felt REVISED VERSION previously, with the implications for the UK onshore wind industry dependent on forthcoming policies (such as the Electricity Market Reform) as well as on the longer-term consequences of recently concluded policy debates, such as those on Renewables Obligation (RO) MW banding levels and national planning Support and other 20000 reforms. These recent and forthcoming Specialised legislative and policy transport changes will Decommissioning affect industry condence and, in turn, 15000 future deployment. The management Operation/maintenance of the industrys transition from the RO Construction/installation 10000 to Contracts for Difference (CfDs), for Design/manuf acture example, and the scale of future political Planning/development ambition, will have a signicant bearing 5000 Capacity on the growth trajectory of the sector.
0
Figure 4.3: Direct Employment in Large Onshore Activities, 2013 and 2023
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PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN LARGE ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM GROWTH SCENARIO
REVISED VERSION
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DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MEDIUM ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023
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charts_large onshore
16
DIRECTMW EMPLOYMENT IN LARGE ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO
ON
High scenario for large-scale onshore wind (16.95GW capacity in 2023; 8,596 direct FTE)
This scenario is one in which installed Support and other capacity rises from its current level of Decommissioning 5.5GW to 16.95GW in 2023. Compared Specialised to the previous study,transport the optimism Operation/maintenance of the high deployment scenario has been scaled back, with projections for Construction/installation 15.2GW of installed capacity in 2021 Design/manuf acture (from 16GW previously, a reduction of Planning/development 5%), and deployment continuing at the current rate of about 1GW/year rather than increasing. Higher deployment High is possible, however, as this scenario is achievable with the current project pipeline and delivery capability, coupled with consistent policy support. The REVISED VERSION growth in installed capacity is stronger in the earlier part of the period in this scenario, with annual increases in capacity of 1.11.2GW, after which they slow. Looking further out, the annual increase in installed capacity continues to slow in this scenario. While policy support is assumed to be high, limits on the rate of deployment arise as the number of suitable sites falls. As time goes on, deployment activity will be bolstered by the repowering of sites, but by 2023 this will not be a large effect. Figure 4.4 illustrates the outcome for the high scenario for large-scale onshore wind.
2020 2021 2022 2023
REVISED VERSION
200004.4: Direct Employment in Large Onshore Activities, High Growth Scenario Figure
15000
Jobs 10000 MW 20000 Support and other 15000 Decommissioning Specialised transport Operation/maintenance 10000 4000 Construction/installation Design/manuf acture
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um 3
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DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN LARGE ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, LOW GROWTH SCENARIO
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Figure 4.5: Permanent and Contracted Jobs in Large Onshore Activities, High Growth Scenario
Contracted
Job 10000
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LARGE ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, LOW 2023 employment in operation and GROWTH SCENARIO maintenance activities reaches 2,844 FTE, up from just over 1,038 at present. PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN
The effect of the slowdown in new capacity being installed over the second half of the period lowers the number of jobs associated with planning and development during this period,6 as well as the number of construction and installation jobs. Planning and development activities made up around 30% of employment in 2013, and construction and installation jobs a further 20%. By 2023, they each account for about 10% of direct employment in this scenario. At the same time, the number of operation and maintenance jobs rises through the period as the requirement to service the additional capacity exceeds the efciency effects. By
The shift in the composition of jobs away from planning and other pre-operations activities and towards operations, maintenance and support represents a shift away from contracted jobs and 10000 permanent jobs. towards Permanent jobs relate to longer-lasting 8000 elements of the asset lifecycle and remain 6000 for as long as the corresponding capacity is in place, rising steadily through to 2023. In contrast, there is 4000 only a demand for contracted jobs in the year that a particular activity is required
2000
(the work is not repeatable in the way REVISED VERSION a permanent job is). In that sense, the increase in operations and maintenance jobs both offsets the reduction in planning and development jobs and also marks a longer-term shift towards more permanent job roles. Demand for manufacturing and manufacturing design activities is inuenced by the rate of deployment of Contracted the technology in the UK and overseas Permanent (and included in the contracted classication in Figure 4.5). In 2023 employment in the activity is almost double current levels, at 1,177 FTE. Employment levels might turn out higher a few years earlier, depending on the prole of the capacity increases.
0 number associated with repowering activities. Employment opportunities in repowering are likely to become more 6. The majority of these jobs will relate to new build, with a comparatively small important in the mid-2020s onwards (i.e. beyond the horizon of this current2013 study). 2014 2015IN MEDIUM 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 DIRECT EMPLOYMENT REVISED VERSION
ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO
DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN LARGE 0 ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023 ONSHORE
REVISED VERSION
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DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN LARGE ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM GROWTH SCENARIO

REVISED VERSION
REVISED VERSION
Medium deployment scenario (15.2GW capacity in 2023; 6,515 direct FTE)
Figure 4.6: Direct Employment in Large Onshore Activities, Medium Growth Scenario
8000
10000
Support and other Decommissioning Specialised transport
For the medium deployment scenario, large-scale onshore wind capacity increases to just over 15GW in 2023. This means capacity in 2023 is 10% lower than in the high deployment scenario. The scenario assumes a marked slowdown in additional capacity um High 3 for several years after 2015, due to posited uncertainty regarding future support for this technology, but also projects that the rate of new deployment REVISED VERSION will2021 increase 2019 2020 2022 again 2023 in the latter half of the period at something like the rate seen recently as Government focuses on the need to meet its 2020 targets REVISED VERSION and recognises the low-cost nature of onshore wind up to that point and beyond. Figure 4.6 shows that in this scenario Support and other direct employment is lower in 2023 than is currently Specialised the case. transport Employment does rise from current levels during the period, Decommissioning 15000 with a peak of 7,548 jobs in 2019.
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PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN LARGE ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM 0 GROWTH SCENARIO
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Figure 4.7: Permanent and Contracted Jobs in Large Onshore Activities, Medium Growth Scenario
MW
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Construction/installation 10000The main factor behind the fall in employment projectedacture over the latter Design/manuf part of the period in this scenario is Planning/development 5000 the lower level of people employed Capacity in planning and development. This reects both a decrease in the rate of 0 deployment in the long-term (lower planning activity) but also economies of 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 scale as learning rates increase (entailing fewer planners per MW).
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EMPLOYMENT ACROSS MEDIUM ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023
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The number of jobs in construction and installation uctuate through the period alongside the prole for annual increases in installed capacity. Employment in 2023 is forecast at about half what it is now, at 706 jobs. In contrast, the number of jobs in operation and maintenance and other High support activities increases through to Medium 2023 in this scenario, despite efciencies Low achieved though learning effects as overall capacity increases. As Figure 4.7 shows, these longer-term jobs related to the operational phase of the assets lifecycle almost double, going from 2,703 2020 2021 2023 at the start 2022 of 2013 to 4,936 by 2023.
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DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN LARGE ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, LOW GROWTH SCENARIO
Low deployment scenario (11.55GW capacity in 2023; 4,740 direct FTE)

In this scenario the deployment of large onshore wind reaches 11.5GW by 2023. The scenario sees a sharp slow-down in the rate of deployment from that seen recently, to 300700 MW. As Figure 4.8 shows, overall direct employment in the sector is generally on a downward trend through to 2023, though there is a modest pickup in employment in the middle of the period. By 2023, employment is projected to be 2020 2021 2022 2023 some 1,800 lower than current levels, and almost half that estimated in the high-deployment scenario, though we do see a rise in the number of permanent jobs from current levels, as explained below. The slowdown in deployment in this scenario impacts on those engaged in manufacturing and designing equipment. Their number could fall to a few hundred (alongside a drop in the value of demand). As in the other deployment scenarios, the lower number of jobs is associated with planning and development and construction and installation. The number of jobs in operations and maintenance and other business support activities rise. With lower capacity than in the other scenarios, the sector is not able to realise the same level of learning efciencies. REVISED VERSION As a result, operations and maintenance jobs per MW installed are higher than in the high or medium deployment scenarios, but direct employment is lower.
Support and other Decommissioning Specialised transport Operation/maintenance Construction/installation Design/manuf acture Planning/development
Figure 4.8: Direct Employment in Large Onshore Activities, Low Growth Scenario
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Figure 4.9: Permanent and Contracted Jobs in Large Onshore Activities, Low Growth Scenario
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charts_medium onshore
DIRECT EMPLOYMENT FUTURE CAPACITY: MEDIUM IN MEDIUM ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, HIGH GROWTH ONSHORE SCENARIO
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Medium 2023
High
Total employment: 18,645 FTE 19 Survey Results from mid-2013
REVISED VERSION
PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN LARGE ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM GROWTH SCENARIO
REVISED VERSION Total employment: 34,373 FTE
4.2 Medium-scale onshore wind Contracted

Permanent MW
20000
Figure 4.10: Direct Employment DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MEDIUM SCALE ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013
in Medium-Scale Onshore Activities, 2013
Recent developments
Support and other Specialised transport
10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 2013
Contracted Permanent 29% 12% 24% 15% 17% 1% 2% 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Site Planning or development Manuf acture or manufacturing design Construction & Installation Operation and maintenance Support services and other activities Decommissioning Specialised Transport 2021 2022 2023
The Medium-scale onshore wind sector Decommissioning 28% covers turbines Planning or between development 100kW and 15000Site Operation/maintenance 10% 500kW in size. It is a relatively Manuf acture or manufacturing design new segment of the market and currently 20% Construction &Construction/installation Installation 10000 accounts for just 16MW of installed 16% Operation and Design/manuf maintenance acture capacity. Although small 24% Support services andcomparatively other activities Planning/development 5000 in scale, this segment of the market is 1% Decommissioning Capacity expected to grow very quickly, even 1% Specialised Transport 2020 2021 2022 2023 under the least optimistic assumptions. 0 Medium turbines are predominantly 2022 2023 Total employment: 6,609 FTE designed for the agricultural sector Survey Results from mid-2013 and provide generation for on-site use. A typical unit is 30m to hub height and 37m to tip height. Common developments consist of a single turbine, although more commercial developments (for export only) often comprise two or three turbines. Due to the 100kW to 500kW Feed-in Tariff bracket, this segment of the market 27% Site Planning or development represents a valuable opportunity for the 19% Manuf acture or manufacturing design wind industry.
20% 16% Construction & Installation High
EMPLOYMENT ACROSS MEDIUM ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023
Total employment: 838 FTE Survey Results from mid-2013
Figure 4.11: Employment Across Medium Onshore Activities, 2013 and 2023
10000
8000
Indirect Direct
6000
Current employment Operation and maintenance Medium

Support services and other activities
16%
4000
it is estimated that wind stands at 838 FTE. Of these, almost a third of jobs are engaged in site Total employment: 1,724 FTE planning orfrom development Survey Results mid-2013 activities and a further quarter in construction and installation. In this respect, the structure 0 2021 2022 2023 of the medium-scale onshore wind sector resembles closely that of largeSED scale onshore wind. However, a larger proportion of jobs are in manufacturing or manufacturing design and a lower proportion are in supporting services than for the large-scale wind sector. employment in medium-scale 1% Specialised Transport
From the survey 1% Decommissioning
Low
2000
2013 (Survey)
Low
Medium 2023
REVISED VERSION
High
Figure 4.12: Direct Employment in Medium Onshore Activities, 2013 and 2023
10000 ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, 8000
Future prospects
Overview Three scenarios have been modelled with the following outcomes:
Medium Medium 2023 2023
DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MEDIUM MEDIUM GROWTH SCENARIO
Support and other Decommissioning Specialised transport Operation/maintenance
6000
Jobs
4000 10000
Construction/installation
MW 600 500 400 300
Design/manuf acture
Support Planning/development
and other
2000
High High deployment scenario: 506MW High capacity in 2023; 6,065 direct FTE; 2,675 indirect FTE Medium deployment scenario:
8000
0 2013 (Survey) Low Medium High
Decommissioning
Specialised transp
6000
Operation/mainten
Construction/insta
4000 200
PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN MEDIUM ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM GROWTH SCENARIO
Design/manuf actu
2000
Planning/developm 100 0 Capacity
2020
2021
2022
2023
20
369MW capacity in 2023; 4,478 direct FTE, 1,901 indirect FTE Low deployment scenario: 122MW capacity in 2023; 1,451 direct FTE, 502 indirect FTE
The number of direct jobs increases in each scenario, with the majority of the increase occurring among those in operation and maintenance and business support services. The very large increases in capacity in each of the scenarios offers the opportunity for signicant gains in efciency of manufacture and operations as the sector matures. The number of jobs in manufacturing, construction and installation, and planning and development are determined by the prole for new capacity being installed. In the low-deployment scenario, with very little change in installed capacity after 2015, the number of people employed in these activities drops sharply. For medium onshore wind, all employment relates to UK deployment of this technology: there is no presumption that the UK is able to extend its reach overseas in terms of manufactured components for export.
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
21
REVISED VERSION
High deployment scenario for medium-scale onshore wind (506MW capacity in 2023; 6,065 direct FTE)
charts_medium onshore
DIRECT EMPLOYMENT FUTURE CAPACITY: MEDIUM IN MEDIUM ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, HIGH GROWTH ONSHORE SCENARIO
MW Figure 4.13: Direct Employment in Medium Onshore Activities, High Growth Scenario 600 500
MW 600 500 400 6000 200 300 4000 100 200 2000 Support and other Decommissioning Specialised transport Operation/maintenance Construction/installation Design/manuf acture
Job 10000
edium
This scenario is based on this sector Specialised transport receiving strong and consistent policy Operation/maintenance support, including nancial support from the small-scale Feed-In Tariff Construction/installation and appropriate planning policy. Design/manuf acture Such support allows the cost of this Planning/development technology to fall substantially due to economies of scale and learning effects. Capacity rises from its current level of just 16 MW to 506MW in 2023. The rate High of increase is relatively steady over the period, at about 5055MW pa.
400
High Medium Low
8000 300
0 2013
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100 2021 2020 0
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2023
0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN MEDIUM ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, HIGH
2018
2019
The steady growth in installed capacity to 2023 means that the number of jobs in planning and development and construction remain at or around their current levels over the period. The pace at which additional capacity is installed also inuences demand for capital equipment manufacturers and Contracted those designing new systems. It is not Permanent thought likely that UK manufactures will be able to secure a notable share of the global market for medium-scale wind technologies. Given this, the relatively steady pace by which new capacity is introduced does not offer much opportunity for higher employment among capital equipment manufacturers in the long-term.
2020 2021 2022 2023
GROWTH SCENARIO DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MEDIUM ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, LOW GROWTH SCENARIO
Figure 4.14: Permanent and Contracted Jobs in Medium Onshore Activities, High Growth Scenario
10000
Jobs
MW
600 Support and other Decommissioning Specialised transport 400 300 Operation/maintenance Construction/installation Design/manuf acture Planning/development 100 Capacity
10000
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500
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6000
6000
4000 4000
200
2000 2000
0 0 2013 2015 2016 2017 2018 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013 20142014 2015 20162019 2017 2018 2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
In sharp contrast, there is strong growth in the number of jobs in operations and maintenance and other business support functions. By 2023 as many as 2,756 FTE could be engaged in operations and maintenance, and a further 2,068 in supporting roles.
GROWTH SCENARIO
10000
8000 Contracted Permanent 4000
6000
2000
0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
2013 (Survey)
Low
Medium 2023
High
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
REVISED VERSION
22
Medium deployment scenario for medium-scale onshore wind (369MW capacity in 2023; 4,478 direct FTE, 1,901 indirect FTE)
For the medium deployment scenario, medium-scale onshore wind capacity increases to 369MW in 2023. This is some 30% lower than in the high deployment scenario. In the short term the increase in capacity is broadly similar to that in the high deployment scenario, but the pace of change slows sharply High after 2015, to average just 30 MW pa. Therefore, somewhere close to twice the level of current capacity is 2020 2021 2022 installed 2023 being added every year in this scenario. The slowdown in the scale of additional capacity from 2015 means that the number of jobs in activities related to new build drops at this point, but then remains stable. In 2023 there are projected to be 236 jobs in construction MW and installation (compared to 196 600 Support and other currently) and slightly fewer in planning Decommissioning 500 development. and
Specialised transport
ONSHORE MEDIUM GROWTH Figure 4.15:ACTIVITIES, Direct Employment in Medium Onshore Activities, Medium Growth SCENARIO Scenario
DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MEDIUM
10000 Jobs
Support and other
MW 600 500 400
Decommissioning
10000 8000 8000 6000 6000 4000
Support and other Specialised transport Decommissioning Operation/maintenance Specialised transport Construction/installation Operation/maintenance Design/manuf acture Construction/installation Planning/development Design/manuf acture Planning/development
300 4000 2000 2000 0 0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
2013 (Survey) Low Medium High
200 100 0
Medium 2023
Capacity
18
2019
PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN MEDIUM ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM GROWTH SCENARIO
Figure 4.16: Permanent and Contracted Jobs in Medium Onshore Activities, Medium Growth Scenario
8000
2022 2023 2018 2019
With the still substantial increase in Operation/maintenance Permanent additional capacity over the period, the 300 Construction/installation main area of jobs growth is expected Design/manuf acture 200 to be in operations and maintenance Planning/development and other business support activities. Capacity 100 By 2023 employment in these job roles could reach 2,079 and 1,546 FTE 0 respectively.
2020 2021 2022 2023
400 Contracted
6000
4000
2000
0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
As Figure 4.16 clearly shows, these more permanent jobs related to the running of the facilities, rather than the more short-term jobs related to planning and construction, will soon make up the majority of the sectors employment.
100
2000 High
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0 2013
100
2021 0 2022
Planning/development Capacity 2023
23
DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MEDIUM MEDIUM ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, HIGH ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, LOW GROWTH GROWTH SCENARIO SCENARIO
PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN
Low deployment scenario for medium-scale onshore wind (122MW capacity in 2023; 1,451 direct FTE, 502 indirect FTE)
In this scenario capacity increases from 16MW currently to 122MW in 2023. Contracted Although this is substantial growth, Permanent capacity in 2023 is just a third of that in the medium deployment scenario and a quarter of than in the high deployment scenario. The scenario sees relatively strong increases in capacity for the rst few years (2030MW pa), with a sharp slowdown thereafter and very little additional capacity added annually after 2017. This can be viewed as a scenario 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 in which the industry works through the permissions that it already has but the planning system will not accommodate any further development. The effect of no further capacity being added at the end of the period, rather than just a slow-down in the increase seen in the more optimistic scenarios, is to accentuate the underlying trends in the other scenarios. In this scenario, the number of jobs in construction and installation and planning and development initially rise, alongside the rising level of capacity installed each year. However, as additional capacity falls back and all but ceases, there is no call for these early-stage activities and employment drops sharply. Manufacturing activity in the form of constructing the capital equipment similarly disappears. The number of jobs in operation and maintenance and business support initially rises in this scenario, but there is little prospect of growth in the long term without further increases in overall installed capacity.
Figure 4.17: Direct Employment in Medium Onshore Activities, Low Growth Scenario
Jobs 10000 10000

MW
600 500 400 300 200 100
0 2021
Support and other Decommissioning Specialised transport Operation/maintenance Construction/installation Design/manuf acture Planning/development Capacity
2022 2023
8000
6000
6000
4000
4000
2000
2000
018
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 0 2013 0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
GROWTH SCENARIO
Figure 4.18: Permanent and Contracted Jobs in Medium Onshore Activities, Low Growth Scenario
10000
6000
2000
0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
24
4.3 Small-scale onshore wind

Recent developments
The Feed-in Tariff scheme was introduced in 2010 and has proved to be a signicant stimulus for growth in the small-scale wind sector (which consists of turbines of less than 100kW in size). At present, it is estimated that there is 86MW of installed capacity in the UK, some ve times more than is currently provided by medium-scale schemes. An amendment to the Town and Country Planning (General Permitted Development) (Amendment) (England) Order 2011 saw the addition of small wind turbines under permitted development. In principle this should have made it easier for domestic users to install small wind turbines. However, the unrealistic size restrictions imposed in the permitted development criteria have unfortunately meant that the amendment has had no impact on High deployment. Despite this, rejection rates for small-scale wind schemes are Medium running at less than 15%. Alongside Low advantageous Feed-in Tariff rates, this has resulted in an increased deployment of small wind turbines over the last two years. Nevertheless, predictions for the future of the small-scale market are made difcult by the decrease in Feed-in Tariff support since December 2012. This has the potential to harm future 2023 employment rates in the sector, and will need to be closely monitored.
DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN SMALL Figure 4.19: Direct Employment SCALE ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013
in Small-Scale Onshore Activities, 2013
29% 13% 24% 15% 16% 1% 2%
EMPLOYMENT ACROSS SMALL ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023
EMPLOYMENT ACROSS WIND AND Figure 4.20: Employment Across Small Onshore Activities, 2013 and 2023 MARINE ENERGY, 2013 AND 2023
16000 14000
120000 100000 80000 60000 40000 20000
12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 0

2013 (Survey)
Indirect
Indirect Direct
Direct
Low
Medium 2023
High
2013 (Survey)
Low
Medium 2023
High
2022
Current employment
From the survey it is estimated that the small-scale onshore wind sector employs 2,464 FTE directly, a four-fold increase from 590 FTEs in 2010. Of these, almost a third of jobs are engaged in site planning or development activities, and a further quarter in construction and installation. Similar numbers are employed in each of operation and maintenance, manufacturing or manufacturing design, and supporting services. The proportion of manufacturing roles is relatively higher than for large-scale onshore wind owing to a greater emphasis on indigenous manufacturing in this technology.
DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN SMALL ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM GROWTH SCENARIO
Job 10000
MW 1000 900
Support
8000
800 700
Decomm
Speciali
6000
600 500
Operatio
Constru Design/
4000
400 300
2000
200 100
Planning
Capacity
25
Future prospects
Overview Three scenarios have been modelled, with the following outcomes: High deployment scenario: 821 MW capacity in 2023; 8,408 direct FTE; 4,955 indirect FTE Medium deployment scenario: 370 MW capacity in 2023; 4,326 direct FTE; 2,304 indirect FTE Low deployment scenario: 232 MW capacity in 2023; 2,240 direct FTE; 962 indirect FTE
DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN SMALL ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023
Figure 4.21: Direct Employment in Small Onshore Activities, 2013 and 2023
10000
8000
6000
4000

High
2000
2013 (Survey)
Low
Medium 2023
High
900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0
The three scenarios cover a wide range of potential employment outcomes, with direct employment increasing by almost 6,000 FTEs by 2023 in the highdeployment scenario, compared to a modest fall in employment in the low deployment scenario even though the amount of installed capacity increases greatly. In this way, the sectors MW prospects are similar to those of the 1000large-scale onshore wind sector. Support and other The modest fall in direct employment in Specialised transport the low-deployment scenario is due to Operation/maintenance the sharp fall in employment in activities at the start of a schemes lifecycle Construction/installation such as planning and development as Design/manuf acture a result of what is effectively a halt in Planning/development new capacity being commissioned. The Capacity medium and high deployment scenarios both assume a steady increase in new capacity throughout the period and this supports jobs in construction, planning and the manufacture of equipment. In all three scenarios the number of jobs associated with the running of sites and associated business activities rises sharply. In addition to the growth in UK deployment, the scenarios also incorporate alternative trajectories for export opportunities to the rest of the world. These opportunities generate additional sales for the manufacturing sector, in addition to the role it plays in delivering new capacity in the UK itself. In the high scenario, the export
Decommissioning
opportunities are substantial, at more than twice the size of total PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN UK deployment in 2023 (around SMALL ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM GROWTH SCENARIO 2,000MW). In the medium scenario, the UK is able to supply the equivalent of 1,600MW of components, roughly four times the UK deployment in 2023. 10000 In the low scenario, the UK supplies components to support the overseas 8000 deployment of around 500MW (just over twice the UK deployment in 6000 2023).
4000 2000 0 2013
2023
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
FUTURE CAPACITY: SMALL ONSHORE

charts_small onshore
26
MW
DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN SMALL 1000 ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO
High deployment scenario for small-scale onshore wind (821MW capacity in 2023; 8,408 direct FTE)
This scenario sees capacity Support and otherincrease from the currentDecommissioning level of 86 MW to 821 MW in 2023. It is based on the smallSpecialised transport scale wind sector receiving strong policy Operation/maintenance support through effective planning and the small-scale Construction/installation FIT. This allows many Design/manuf acture individuals and small businesses to benet from owning such devices, which Planning/development further increases demand for turbines through a virtuous cycle.
High
Figure 4.22: Direct Employment in Small Onshore Activities, High Growth Scenario
800
High 600
Job MW 1000 900 8000 Support and other Decommissioning Specialised transport Operation/maintenance Construction/installation Design/manuf acture
Med
Low
400 10000
200
800 700 600 500
6000
0
4000
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020 400
300 200 100
2021 Planning/development 2022 2023

Capacity
2000
Medium 2023
The growth in capacity is faster over the rst half of the period, when annual increases average 8090MW (equivalent to current capacity). The pace of increase then slows after 2017 to about half this rate in this scenario. Employment in the sector is expected to peak in 2017 at 8,649 FTE before falling back as the rate of new capacity slows and recovering slightly again towards the end of the forecast.
Contracted The early growth in employment is Permanent due to an increase in planning and manufacturing and associated design activities. Both activities benet from the initial pickup in the rate of new capacity. In addition, UK manufacturers are also expected to secure a share of the strongly expanding international market, 2020 2021 2022 2023 which in this scenario grows much faster than the domestic market. The long-term growth in the international market will sustain employment in the providers of the capital equipment when the pace of growth in the UK slows after 2017. The activity makes an important contribution to overall employment in the sector in the long term as jobs in planning and development and construction and installation activities fall back. By 2023 employment in manufacturing could account for a third of all direct jobs in the sector.
0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 IN 2020 2021 2022 2023 PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS
SMALL ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO
Figure 4.23: Permanent and Contracted Jobs in Small Onshore Activities, High Growth DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN SMALL Scenario
ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, LOW GROWTH SCENARIO
Contracted 10000
Job 10000
Permanent
MW
8000 6000 4000 2000
1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100
8000 6000 4000 2000
0 02013
2014
2015
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2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
sustained jobs) rises steadily through to 2023 alongside the increase in overall capacity. In 2023, employment in these PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN activities could reach 2,106 and 1,631 SMALL ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, LOW GROWTH SCENARIO FTEs respectively.
10000
8000 Contracted 6000 Permanent
In this scenario, the number of jobs associated with operating and maintaining small schemes and supporting business functions (i.e.
4000
2000
0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
0 2020 2021 2022 2023
2013 (Survey)
Low
Medium 2023
High
27
10000 Support and other Decommissioning Specialised transport
Medium deployment scenario for small-scale onshore wind (370MW capacity in 2023; 4,326 direct FTE)
In this scenario capacity increases from the current level of 86 MW to 370 MW in 2023, less than half the level of the high deployment scenario. This reects lessconsistent policy support and overall lower demand for grow-your-own power. The underlying trend in installed capacity is relatively steady through the period, with annual increases of around 25MW. Looking further out, the annual increase 2021 2022 2023 in capacity is expected to drop by about 50% over the following decade. A steady increase in installed capacity in this scenario means that there is a fairly stable demand for planning and development activities, and construction and installation in particular, Support andfunctions other throughout the period. Post-2023, Decommissioning slower increases in capacity will begin transport to putSpecialised downward pressure on planning and development jobs at the end of the Operation/maintenance forecast.
Construction/installation
Contracted
Figure8000 4.24: Direct Employment in Small Onshore Activities, Medium Growth Scenario SCENARIO
6000
Job 10000 MW 1000
DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN SMALL ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM GROWTH
Operation/maintenanc
Construction/installati 4000 Design/manuf acture

8000
2000
900 800 700
Planning/developmen
High
6000
2013 (Survey)
Low
Medium 600 High 500 2023

400 300
4000
2000
200 100
2020
0 PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 MEDIUM 2019 2020 2021 SMALL ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, GROWTH SCENARIO
0 2022 2023
Figure 4.25: Permanent and Contracted Jobs in Small Onshore Activities, Medium Growth Scenario
MW 1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0
10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 2013 Contracted Permanent
2019
Manufacturing and associated design Design/manuf acture Permanent activities are also supported by the Planning/development steady increase in capacity being Capacity installed. Firms engaged in these activities should also benet from a growing overseas market. Growth in the international market is still expected to be rapid, but to be much weaker than in 2020 2021 2022 2023 the high-deployment scenario. Overall, employment in manufacturing activities could reach 1,219 by 2023 in this scenario. Employment in operations and maintenance and business support services rises through the forecast period at a relatively steady rate as the upward pressure on jobs from much higher levels of capacity exceeds the efciencies from learning as High the technology matures. By 2023, Medium employment in these two activities Low reaches 1,144 and 875 FTE respectively. This is about 45% of the level reached in the high deployment scenario.
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
EMPLOYMENT ACROSS OFFSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023
50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 Indirect Direct
2020
2021
2022
2023
2013 (Survey)
Low
Medium 2023
High
2000 High 0 PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
200 100
ium 23
SMALL ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO
28
Low deployment scenario for small-scale onshore wind (232MW capacity in 2023; 2,240 direct FTE)
The low deployment scenario sees installed capacity increase from the current level of 86 MW to 232 MW in 2023, about 40% below the medium Contracted deployment scenario and 70% below the Permanent high deployment scenario. The scenario represents a failure to support this technology and its potential for future cost reduction as deployment increases, as has happened with other small-scale technologies, with no consideration of the wider benets.
2020 2021 2022 2023
ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, LOW GROWTH in Small Onshore Activities, Low Growth Scenario Figure 4.26: Direct Employment SCENARIO
DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN SMALL
Contracted 10000 8000 Job

10000 6000 8000 4000 6000 2000 4000 0 2013 2000
Permanent
MW
1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 2021 2020 200 100 0
Support and other Decommissioning Specialised transport Operation/maintenance Construction/installation Design/manuf acture
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2022Planning/development 2023
Capacity
019
0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
The underlying prole for capacity is a relatively steady increase through to 2023, of around 10MW pa. The rate of increase post-2023 then falls back, as it does in the other scenarios for this sector, and this will have a downward pressure on planning and development activities at the end of the forecast period. Overall, direct employment in 2023 is estimated at 2,240 FTE, around 200 jobs lower than current levels. Compared to either the high or medium deployment scenarios, a key factor behind this outcome is the forecasted fall in the number of manufacturing jobs. This results both from small annual increases in capacity (and hence lower demand for capital equipment) and weak growth in international demand being insufcient to overcome the underlying efciency gains that can be achieved in manufacturing. Employment in operations and maintenance and business support activities increases through the period in this scenario, and could account for 814 and 593 FTE respectively in 2023. This is only 40% of the jobs Support and other that the high deployment scenario Decommissioning would support in these activities. The increasing importance of these more Specialised transport sustained jobs over those supported by Operation/maintenance the provision of new capacity is clearly shown in Construction/installation Figure 4.27 below. Design/manuf acture
PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN SMALL ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, LOW GROWTH SCENARIO Figure 4.27: Permanent and Contracted Jobs in Onshore Small: Low Growth
10000
8000 Contracted 6000 Permanent
4000
2000
0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
FUTURE CAPACITY: OFFSHORE
charts_offshore
DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN OFFSHORE ACTIVITIES, HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO
MW
30000 25000
Job 20000 25000
MW
30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 2021 5000 0
Support and other High Decommissioning Medium
15000 20000 10000

15000 5000 10000 0
Low Specialised transport

Operation/maintenance Construction/installation Design/manuf acture Planning/development
High
2013 5000
2014
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2023 Capacity
0 PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN 2013 ACTIVITIES, 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 OFFSHORE HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO
4000 2000
from mid-2013
29 Survey Results from mid-2013
Total employment: 18,645 FTE
0 England Wales Scotland N.Ireland Mobile
Contracted 4.4 Offshore wind Permanent
DIRECT EMPLOYMENT OFFSHORE in Offshore Activities, 2013 Figure 4.28: DirectIN Employment ACTIVITIES, 2013
Recent developments
Since 2010, installed capacity in offshore wind has grown from around 29% 1.3GW to over by mid-2013. Site Planning or3.5GW development 13% In the rst six months of 2013 Manuf acture or manufacturing design alone around 1GW of capacity became 24% Construction & Installation operational, including notable projects 15% Operation and maintenance such as the London Array, the worlds 0 2021 2022 2023 16% Support services and other activities biggest offshore wind farm, and Greater Decommissioning 1% Gabbard, off the coast of East Anglia. In Specialised Transport 2% addition, there are now around 17GW of projects in construction, with planning Total employment: FTE The capacity consent and in2,464 planning. Survey Results from mid-2013 in the immediate pipeline is expected to pass 20GW as Round 3 projects in development continue to submit planning OSS WIND AND applications over the next two 2013 AND 2023 to three years.
19% 10% 36% 18% 14% 1% 2%
EMPLOYMENT ACROSS OFFSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023

Figure 4.29: Employment Across Offshore Activities, 2013 and 2023
Current employment
From the latest survey, employment in offshore wind has more than doubled High since the 2011 study, from 3,100 FTEs Medium to more than 6,830 FTEs. Of those 6,830 FTEs, 2,503 (36%) are engaged Low in construction and installation; this is double the employment seen in 2010. Employment in operations and maintenance has more than doubled since 2010, to around 1,225 FTEs. The other major activity in this sector relates High to site planning and development, in 2023 which employment has almost tripled (from an estimated 450 FTEs in 2010 to 1,276 now) ahead of the construction of the Round 3 wind farms. Manufacturing and manufacturing design accounts for a further 10% of employment and the remaining 17% is in specialised transport and other support services (see Figure 4.28).
50000
60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000
40000 30000 20000 10000

0
Indirect Direct
Wave Of f shore Small Onshore Medium Onshore Large Onshore
Medium 2023
2022
0 (Survey) 2013 (Survey)
2013
Low
Low
Medium 2023
High
Medium 2023
High
Medium deployment scenario: 14.6GW capacity in 2023; 9,853 direct FTE, 6,566 indirect FTE; Low deployment scenario: 10GW capacity in 2023; 6,565 direct FTE, DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN OFFSHORE ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM GROWTH SCENARIO 4,073 indirect FTE. The medium scenario represents a lower rate of deployment than the medium scenario from the previous 2011 study. The reason for this medium scenario Job being chosen is that it is closer to 25000 some scenarios discussed elsewhere 7 and is consistent with policy support being weaker and less consistent than 20000 in the high deployment case. The high deployment scenario remains fully 15000 feasible.
10000
Future prospects
Overview Three scenarios have been modelled, with the following outcomes: High deployment scenario: 26.7GW capacity in 2023; 23,465 direct FTE, 21,188 indirect FTE;
The lower level of optimism reected in all three scenarios is due to continued uncertainty (as expressed by the industry) regarding the effects of the levy control framework cap, particularly on the availability of offshore wind contracts during any future allocation process, as well as uncertainty as to the effect of proposed strike price regression on project viability post-2017.
MW 30000 The size of the opportunity for UK export of components to support new build elsewhere in Europe varies from as 25000 much as 9.7GW in the high scenario to as little as 1.3GW in the20000 low scenario. In the high scenario, it is also anticipated 15000
Support
Decomm
Speciali
Operatio
Constru 10000 5000
7. The Crown Estate: UK Offshore Wind Market Study, published March 2013: www.thecrownestate.co.uk/media/391960/offshore-wind-market-study.pdf RenewableUK: Building an Industry, published June 2013: www.renewableuk.com/en/publications/index.cfm/BAI2013
Design/m
5000
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30
that the UK will be able to meet more of its supply-chain requirements domestically, with the share growing from 37% now to 55% by 2023. In the medium scenario, this share rises to 40%, while in the low scenario, the share is unchanged.
DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN OFFSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023
Figure 4.30: Direct Employment in Offshore Activities, 2013 and 2023
25000 20000
High
In all scenarios, offshore wind is the 15000 largest source of potential employment in the entire wind and marine energy 10000 sector, reecting its importance in the transition to a low-carbon UK economy. 5000 Figure 4.29 shows that the employment potential is greatest in the high scenario, 0 2013 with the potential for 23,465 FTE jobs in Low Medium (Survey) 2023 2023, reecting a sustained commitment to offshore wind and, as a result, continued employment in development PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN and construction activities. This would OFFSHORE ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM GROWTH constitute almost half the potential SCENARIO employment across all wind and marine energy sectors. Growth prospects are more modest in the medium and low scenarios, with employment more long-term in nature, to support the capacity now in the system. These longer-term jobs generate relatively fewer indirect Support and other jobs in the rest of the economy compared to the sustained Decommissioning employment in planning, manufacturing Specialised transport and construction in the high scenario (hence the much higher ratio of indirect Operation/maintenance to direct employment). Construction/installation
Design/manuf acture In the low scenario, direct employment Planning/development in offshore wind in 2023 is projected Capacity to be slightly lower than it is now, although many more of those jobs will be permanent in nature, to operate and maintain the installed capacity. In contrast, much more of the current employment is temporary in nature, to build new capacity. In the medium case, employment would increase by around 50% over the next ten years, to 9,853 by 2023.
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As a result of greater policy uncertainty, the three scenarios represent a much lower level of optimism compared to that in the previous study, where, in the high scenario, 31GW was projected by 2021. The low scenario from the previous study was also more optimistic, at 13GW by 2021 (the new low scenario barely reaches 10GW by 2023).
31
FUTURE CAPACITY: OFFSHORE
High scenario for offshore wind (26.7GW capacity in 2023; 23,465 direct FTE)
In the high scenario, offshore wind Support and other by around 1GW capacity grows steadily Decommissioning each year to 2016, before a more rapid growth of 23GW (see Figure Specialisedthereafter transport 4.31). By 2023, offshore wind capacity is Operation/maintenance projected to stand at almost 27GW. This Construction/installation is feasible given the amount of projects Design/manuf acture currently in planning and the known Planning/development plans of turbine manufacturers and other supply chain players.
High
charts_offshore
DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN OFFSHORE ACTIVITIES, HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO
MW Figure 4.31: Direct Employment in Offshore Activities, High Growth Scenario

30000 25000 20000
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This acceleration in deployment gives rise to the employment prole shown in Figure 4.31, which shows steady employment growth followed by a sizeable increase in employment. This increase begins before the actual deployment of new capacity because of the requirement for planning, manufacturing and construction jobs. Employment in these activities persists over the entire period due to the expected continued UK commitment Contracted wind. These contracted to offshore Permanent jobs account for almost half of the total employment projected by 2023 (this compares to a share of about two-thirds at present). Permanent employment also increases to 2023, to 12,795, to support the new capacity brought online. As already 2020 2021 2022 2023 mentioned, there is a mild shift towards more permanent jobs over time (see Figure 4.32). In the high scenario, the UK is expected to supply a substantial proportion of the EU market for offshore wind components, and there is expected to be an increase in the proportion of the supply chain located in the UK. This helps to drive continued employment in design and manufacturing activities from less than 671 at present to over 3,196 by 2023 in this scenario.
0 PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN 2013 2014 2015 2016HIGH 2017 GROWTH 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 OFFSHORE ACTIVITIES, SCENARIO
Figure 4.32: Permanent and Contracted Jobs in Offshore Activities, High Growth Scenario
DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN OFFSHORE ACTIVITIES, LOW GROWTH SCENARIO
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DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MARINE ACTIVITIES, HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO
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DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN OFFSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023
2013 (Survey)
Low
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32
Medium deployment scenario (14.6GW capacity in 2023; 9,853 direct FTE)
Figure 4.33: Direct Employment in Offshore Activities, Medium Growth Scenario ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM GROWTH SCENARIO
25000 20000
Job 25000
Support and other
Decommissioning Specialised transport

MW 30000
The medium deployment scenario for offshore wind is characterised by slow, steady growth of 5001,000MW to 2017, before a burst of higher growth (12GW each year) to 2021. The rate of growth steadies to around 500MW each year thereafter. This is consistent with a number of scenarios that have been High placed in the public domain,8 although industry argues that the actual level of deployment could far outstrip this. By 2023, there are2023 14.6GW of installed 019 2020 2021 2022 capacity in the UK in this scenario. Figure 4.33 and Figure 4.34 show that capacity under this scenario generates a temporary increase in employment around 2018 to support the installation of new capacity (through contracted jobs). At this peak, total employment reaches 11,967 FTEs. MW 30000 Lower deployment later in the period Support and other reduces the requirement for contracted 25000 Decommissioning jobs in planning, manufacturing and 20000 Contracted Specialised transport construction. The employment of Permanent 9,853 FTEsOperation/maintenance by 2023 is dominated by 15000 permanent jobs to operate and maintain Construction/installation the installed capacity. This is around 10000 acture 50% higherDesign/manuf than current employment. By 2023, there is also a much 5000 Planning/development higher share of permanent Capacity jobs compared to 0 now. 3 2020 2021 2022 2023
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PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN 0 OFFSHORE ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM GROWTH 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 SCENARIO
Figure 4.34: Permanent and Contracted Jobs in Offshore Activities, Medium Growth Scenario
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EMPLOYMENT ACROSS MARINE ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023
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019
8. The Crown Estate: UK Offshore Wind Market Study, published March 2013: www.thecrownestate.co.uk/media/391960/offshore-wind-market-study.pdf DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MARINE RenewableUK: Building an Industry, published June 2013: www.renewableuk.com/en/publications/index.cfm/BAI2013 ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM GROWTH SCENARIO
High
5000
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0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
33
25000
Low deployment scenario (10GW capacity in 2023; 6,565 direct FTE)

In the low scenario, deployment of offshore wind is steady but slow, at 400600MW each year from 2015 onwards. ContractedBy 2023, capacity is just under 10GW (little more than three times total Permanent installed capacity at the end of 2012). In this scenario, lower levels of deployment (at the most cost-effective sites only) limit the opportunity to establish an industrial base producing the equipment in the UK, creating a corresponding opportunity elsewhere in the world. 2020 2021 2022 2023 In this scenario, employment in 2023 is actually slightly below the current level, although much more of it is concentrated in permanent, rather than temporary, activities (see Figure 4.35 and Figure 4.36). By 2023, employment in offshore wind in the low scenario is projected to be 6,565 FTEs (compared to 6,830 now). Of those 6,565 FTEs, four-fths are in permanent offshore activities, compared to one third at present.
Contracted ACTIVITIES, GROWTH SCENARIO Figure 4.35: LOW Direct Employment in Offshore Activities, Low Growth Scenario 20000
Job 15000 25000
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PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 OFFSHORE ACTIVITIES, LOW GROWTH SCENARIO
Figure 4.36: Permanent and Contracted Jobs in Offshore: Low Growth Scenario
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FUTURE CAPACITY: MARINE
DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MARINE ACTIVITIES, HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO
charts_marine
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DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MARINE ACTIVITIES, LOW GROWTH SCENARIO
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34
4.5 Marine
DIRECT MARINE Figure EMPLOYMENT 4.37: Direct IN Employment ACTIVITIES, 2013
in Marine Activities, 2013
Recent developments
The wave and tidal stream (marine) energy industry has reached an 19% Site Planning or development important phase in its development 10% Manuf acture or manufacturing design as the rst small arrays are now 36% Construction & Installation being developed and commissioned. 18% Operation and maintenance Technology development has 14% Support services and other activities progressed quickly in the past year Decommissioning 1% there is now almost 10MW of wave 2021 2022 2023 Specialised Transport 2% and tidal stream energy installed in the UK, compared to 2.4MW in 2010, with 12 large-scale prototype devices now Total employment: 6,830 FTE operating or having been commissioned Survey Results from mid-2013 in the last year. Current levels of UK deployment exceed the combined deployment in the rest of the world, and strong partnerships between major engineering rms and utilities are well established. High The 40MW Aquamarine Power Wave Farm off the Isle of Lewis now has full Medium Wave consent. This is a signicant milestone Low Of f shore for the industry as it is the largest Small ever Onshore marine-energy project to be Medium Onshore consented. Scottish Power Renewables Large Onshore for 10MW Islay project received consent of tidal turbines and was awarded New Entrants Reserve 300 funding from the European Commission. In addition to this, funding for the Marine Energy Array Medium High 2023 Demonstrator has been awarded to two of the worlds leading array projects: the Pentland Firth and Marine 20 2021 MeyGen 2022 in 2023 Current Turbines Skerries project off the coast of Anglesey were awarded 10m each to develop the rst array projects.
27% 19% 20% 16% 16% 1% 1%
EMPLOYMENT ACROSS MARINE ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023

DIRECT EMPLOYMENT ACROSS WIND Figure 4.38: Employment Across AND MARINE ENERGY, 2013 AND 2023
Marine Activities, 2013 and 2023
REVISED
25000
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2013 (Survey) Low Medium 2023 High
2013 (Survey)
MEDIUM GROWTH SCENARIO beenACTIVITIES, more modest, increasing by 50% to 325 FTEs. DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MARINE
Low
Medium 2023
High
Current employment
Employment in marine power has more than doubled since the last Working for a Green Britain study, standing at 1,724 FTEs compared to the 800 FTEs recorded in 2010. Employment has increased in all activities: Site planning and development has tripled, to 459 FTEs; Construction and installation employment, at 347 FTEs, is 2.5 times larger than previously; Operation and maintenance has almost quadrupled, to 273 FTEs.
2021 2022 2023
Low deployment scenario: 56MW capacity in 2023; 1,447 direct FTE, 649 indirect FTE.
cted
ent

2020
Growth in design and manufacturing has
The wave and tidal energy industry has developed signicantly in 2013, MW full-scale and the UK now has more marine energy devices 1000 installed than the rest of the world combined, with Support and oth the potential for much greater levels Future prospects 8000 800 Decommissionin of deployment in the coming years. However, the scenarios in this study Specialised trans Overview 6000 600 reect lower expectations about future Operation/maint build compared to the 2011 study. Three scenarios have been modelled, This is in line with concerns with the following outcomes: 4000 400 among Construction/ins the wind technologies regarding policy Design/manuf ac uncertainty, but also reects the high High deployment scenario: 676MW 2000 200 Planning/develo transmission charges faced by marine capacity in 2023; 9,148 direct FTE, technologies and a more cautious Capacity 13,873 indirect FTE; 0 deployment scenario: 0 new scenarios consenting regime. The Medium 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 illustrate 2020 2021 2022 2023to which the early the extent 328MW capacity in 2023; 5,631 development of the sector is still closely direct FTE, 6,476 indirect FTE;
Activities directly relating to deployment of marine devices account for 66% of employment in the sector, with a Job further 16% working in operation and 10000 maintenance (see Figure 4.37).
35
tied to government support in order to realise longer-term competitive gains once the industry has matured and can stand on its own. All scenarios project high growth in marine deployment compared to the low levels of capacity deployed now, but also predict a shift in the sector, from its current nascent form (with a heavy emphasis on R&D) to more generalised manufacturing, construction and operation techniques as the technologies mature. In all scenarios, this will be accompanied by some degree of outsourcing, such that the proportion of the supply chain located High in the UK will fall from 100% now to around 70% by 2023. The scenarios diverge due to different assumptions about the level and consistency of Government support for this emerging industry. In the high MW scenario, the opportunity to establish 1000 the UK as the premier country for marine energy is recognised, and therefore Support and other deployment of generation capacity is 800 Decommissioning maximised and the supply chain fully transport supported.Specialised In the medium scenario, 600 Operation/maintenance more tentative support is given due to limits being imposed on the amounts Construction/installation 400 that consumers are expected to pay and Design/manuf acture taxpayers contribute, leading to growth, 200 Planning/development but with the UK less distinctly the world Capacity leader. The low scenario posits that 0 initial arrays are supported, but with a sharp Government focus on value for money, the cost reduction pathway is deemed too shallow and the industrial opportunity not large enough to justify support, which is withdrawn, halting deployment in 2018. As a world leader in marine technologies, in each scenario the UK supplies a substantial proportion of manufactured components to the rest of Europe, to support European deployment of renewables technologies (although this still pales in comparison to the potential UK deployment): High: 160MW; Medium: 100MW; Low: 45MW.
ACTIVITIES, 2013Employment AND 2023 Figure 4.39: Direct in Marine Activities, 2013 and 2023
DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MARINE
10000 Support and other 8000 Decommissioning Specialised transport 6000 Operation/maintenance Construction/installation Design/manuf acture 2000 Planning/development
4000
0 2013 (Survey) Low Medium 2023 High
edium 2023
PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN MARINE ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM GROWTH This difference in export capability across SCENARIO
scenarios is a reection of:
Diminished UK-export opportunities in the low case, where policy support to help develop the technology is weak, leading to a 10000 lower rate of development in the sector and less opportunity for the UK to consolidate its 8000 expertise and market position; Stronger policy support to develop the 6000 UKs position as the market leader in marine energy, with correspondingly 4000 stronger demand for UK knowhow and its manufacturing base.
2000
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Export opportunities in the higher-deployment 0 scenarios increase at slower rates than UK 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 deployment owing to the somewhat lower potential for marine energy elsewhere in Europe compared to the UK. Figure 4.38 shows that in the low scenario, marine employment would be slightly lower than it is now (1,447 FTEs compared to 1,724 now). There is much greater employment potential in the medium (a three-fold increase by 2023) and high scenarios (a ve-fold increase). In contrast to the previous study, the current projections are much more cautious about the rate of deployment of UK marine energy: 50 700MW by 2023 compared to 1,300MW by 2021 in the lowest scenario last time, and 2,000MW in the highest case.
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charts_marine
High scenario for marine energy (676MW capacity in 2023; 9,148 direct FTE)
In the high scenario, UK marine Support and other deployment grows substantially, from Decommissioning around 12MW of capacity now to almost Specialised transport 700MW by 2023, with faster growth from 2019 onwards (more than 50MW each Operation/maintenance year) as the technology becomes more Construction/installation widespread. Accelerating deployment Design/manuf acture in this scenario leads to strong growth Planning/development in design and manufacturing (from 325 FTEs now to almost 2,917 by 2023). HighDesign and manufacturing is the largest source of employment in 2023, followed by Operation and maintenance (1,931) and Construction and installation (1,080) (see Figure 4.40). This compares, in all three cases, to current employment of less than 350. In terms of the split between permanent and contracted jobs, around one-third of current employment in the sector is permanent in nature while, by 2023 that share is projected to grow to 50% (see Contracted Figure 4.41). Permanent
FUTURE CAPACITY: MARINE SCENARIO ACTIVITIES, HIGH GROWTH Figure 4.40: Direct Employment in Marine Activities, High Growth Scenario
DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MARINE
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PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN Figure 4.41: Permanent and Contracted SMALL MARINE ACTIVITIES, HIGH DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MARINE GROWTH ACTIVITIES, LOW SCENARIO GROWTH SCENARIO Scenario
Jobs in Marine Activities, High Growth
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0 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013 DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MARINE (Survey) ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023
DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MARINE ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM GROWTH SCENARIO
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Medium deployment scenario (328MW capacity in 2023; 5,631 direct FTE)

The medium deployment scenario for marine energy projects a level of installed capacity that is around half that of the high scenario (328MW compared to 676MW). Slow growth is projected to 2020, followed by more rapid growth of 5070MW in the remaining three years of the period. Employment in marine energy in the medium scenario grows to 5,631 FTEs High compared to the current level of 1,724. emphasis in this2023 scenario 2021 2022 is on employment in design and manufacturing (including export sales to other countries deploying marine energy systems) and operation and maintenance to support installed MW capacity in the UK (see Figure 4.42). The 2020
Figure 4.42: Direct Employment in Marine Activities, Medium Growth Scenario
10000 Support and other 8000 Job

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PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN MARINE ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM GROWTH SCENARIO and Contracted Jobs in Marine Activities, Medium Growth Figure 4.43: Permanent
0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Scenario
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2 2023
2019
Support and other At 1,531 FTEs, employment in design 800 and manufacturing is almost ve times Decommissioning larger than current levels, with more of Specialised transport Contracted 600 that employment in manufacturing rather Permanent Operation/maintenance than R&D-intensive design. There are Construction/installation projected to be 1,360 FTEs employed 400 in operationDesign/manuf and maintenance by 2023, acture to support the 328MW of capacity in 200 Planning/development place by that time. This is a substantially Capacity lower jobs-per-MW gure than currently, 0 reecting rapid increases in efciency as the sector matures. 2020 2021 2022 2023
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Employment in construction and installation almost doubles to 2023, from 347 FTEs now to 679. As with the high scenario, the split of permanent to contracted jobs in 2023 is 50:50, compared to one-third of jobs relating to contracted activities at present (see Figure 4.43).
200 2000
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38
Low deployment scenario (56MW capacity in 2023; 1,447 direct FTE)

In the low scenario, marine deployment grows to just 56MW in 2023, compared to around 12MW now. Due to continuing uncertainty around levels of support, Contracted this is a substantially less optimistic Permanent outlook than any of the scenarios from the previous Working for a Green Britain study where, in the low case, capacity was projected to exceed 1GW by 2020. In this scenario, employment in 2023 will likely be lower than the levels seen now, although a much higher proportion of those jobs will be permanent in nature, 2020 2021 2022 2023 to support operational capacity. In the new low scenario, between 5MW and 10MW of new capacity is installed each year until 2018, at which point no new devices are deployed in the UK: there is no requirement for planning and development or construction and installation in the years that follow (see Figure 4.44). After 2019, the number of permanent jobs in UK marine energy stabilises at 1,005 FTEs, while employment in design and manufacturing is sustained entirely by overseas markets for UK production (see Figure 4.45). In this scenario, by 2023, two-thirds of UK marine employment is permanent in nature, a reversal of the current situation.
PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN SMALL MARINE ACTIVITIES, HIGH DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MARINE GROWTH SCENARIO ACTIVITIES, LOW GROWTH SCENARIO Figure 4.44: Direct Employment in
Marine Activities, Low Growth Scenario
Job 10000 10000
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PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN MARINE ACTIVITIES, LOW and GROWTH Figure 4.45: Permanent Contracted SCENARIO
Jobs in Marine, Low Growth Scenario
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5. Employment by Nation
36% 5% Onshore: large Onshore: medium Onshore: small Of f shore Marine
The prole of employment by technology is similar in England and Scotland, with just over one-third of the direct jobs associated with large onshore activities.
13% 37% 9%
charts 2013
In Wales, more than half of the sectors employment is associated with large onshore schemes, while in Northern Ireland, the share is just over 40%. Onshore wind (at all scales) is by far the most important source of wind and marine employment in these two nations. This is followed by offshore wind (though not nearly to the same extent as in England or Scotland). Onshore wind (at all scales) accounts for less than 60% of total wind and marine-sector employment in England and Scotland, owing to relatively higher diversity in the technology mix. By contrast, in Wales the share approaches 80%, and in Northern Ireland the share is closer to 70%. Within onshore wind, small onshore is the next largest employer (1020% of total employment in each nation) while medium-scale onshore wind remains relatively undeveloped, at less than 10% of wind and marine employment in each nation. As a proportion, the latest survey suggests that mediumscale onshore wind is somewhat more prevalent in Northern Ireland than in the other nations, although the technology remains underdeveloped when compared to other forms of wind and marine energy. The share of employment accounted for by marine technologies is,
DIRECT EMPLOYMENT ACROSS Figure 5.1: Direct Employment WIND AND MARINE ENERGY, 2013
Across Wind and Marine Energy by Nation, 2013
62% 4% 21% 4% 9%
England Wales Scotland N.Ireland Mobile
DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN SMALL where over 15% of wind SCALE ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013and
unsurprisingly, highest in Scotland, marine energy sector employment is marinespecic. In England the share is somewhat lower, at 9%. Currently, marine technologies have a limited presence in Wales and Northern Ireland, accounting for less than 4% of wind and marine energy employment in each of these nations. Overall, employment in wind and marine energy accounts for a relatively higher share of total employment in Scotland than it does in the other three nations of the UK.
Of the employment classied as mobile, and thus not connected to any single nation (but still within Great Britain and Northern Ireland), most of the employment (almost 75%) is accounted for by offshore wind, followed by large onshore wind (just over 15%).
29% 13% 24% 15% 16% 1% 2% Site Planning or development Manuf acture or manufacturing design Construction & Installation Operation and maintenance Support services and other activities Decommissioning Specialised Transport

aryprojections
40
6. Other Characteristics of the Labour Market This section draws on the detailed results from the company survey to examine other important labour market issues facing the sector.
CHARTS - SKILLS
6.1 Company structure
Figure 6.1 shows the structure of rms in the renewable sector as reported through the survey. It shows that most rms are engaged in the onshore wind sub-sector (around 70% of employers reported that they were engaged in this type of activity). The large onshore wind sector accounts for the most employers in the onshore sub-sector. Just over 60% of rms reported that they were engaged in the offshore sector, and just under 40% in the marine sector.
Figure 5.1: Distribution of Employers by Technology Sector (%) Figure 6.1: Distribution of Employers by Technology Sector (%)
Marine Of f shore wind Small onshore wind Medium onshore wind Large scale onshore wind Any onshore wind 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
2010 2013
Compared to the 2010 survey, the latest % of employers survey suggests greater diversication in the wind and marine energy sector, with rms more likely to be engaged in Table 6.1: Employer Involvement in Multiple Technologies multiple technologies compared to three Onshore Offshore Marine years ago. The rise of offshore and marine 5.5 technologies also means that, relatively Onshore 60% 52% speaking, onshore wind is not as dominant Offshore 53% 85% a technology as it once was. This Marine 29% 54% explains the reduction in the proportion Semi- skilled or operative job Each column indicates the percentage of employers in that technology engaged in one or of employers involved in onshore wind, more of the others. from 80% last time, to 70% now (although Sources: RenewableUK/EU Skilled manual or technical jobs Skills Survey of Renewable Energy Organisations 2013 (CE, IER, IFF). there has still been an overall increase in employment) and the increases in the Whole economy offshore wind and marine energy: 85% This diversication is jobs evident in Table share of employers engaged in: Technical prof essional Renewables of employers engaged in marine energy 6.1, which shows the percentage of are also engaged in offshore wind employers by broad technology that Offshore wind: 62% now compared Management development. are involved in other technologies. For to 41% in 2010; example, 53% of employers engaged Marine energy: 39% now compared 0 5 20 25 30 35 40 shift in emphasis away from in onshore wind are also involved in 10 15 The to 16% in 2010, a substantial % of employment onshore wind and towards a more offshore wind. Table 6.1 also highlights afemale increase in the proportion of rms in balanced portfolio of wind and marine somewhat larger overlap between this technology segment.
charts 2013
41
technologies has potential implications gy Sector (%) for skills requirements, as each sector engages in a slightly different mix of development activities. Figure 6.2 shows the types of activity in which employers are engaged. It 2010 shows that the percentage of employers 2013 engaged in all activities has increased since 2010, suggesting that the sector has become more vertically integrated. In particular it shows that in percentage terms, a much greater share of60 employers are now engaged 40 50 70 80 90 in installation and maintenance than in % of employers 2010. The data suggest that employers are likely to have become more diverse in the activities in which they engage compared to three years ago. The data clearly show that employers are involved in multiple activities (for example, of those engaged in manufacturing, 44% were also involved in construction activities, 64% in installation, 58% in maintenance, and 46% in operations).
Figure 5.2: Distribution of Employers by Activity (%) Figure 6.2: Distribution of Employers by Activity (%)
Support Services Specialised transport Maintenance Installation Construction Manuf acture and manuf acturing design Site planning and development 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 2010 2013
30
% of employers
5.5 --- VERSION 2!!!!! of Organisations in the Renewable Energy Sector Table 6.2: Activities According to Type of Technology All onshore wind Large onshore wind Medium onshore wind 58% Small onshore wind 57% Offshore wind 37% Marine energy All rms
Site 55% 54% planning and development Skilled manual or technical jobs Manufacture 18% 16% and manufacTechnical prof essional jobs turing design Construction Installation Maintenance Site Operation Specialised transport Support Services 33% 34% 33% 33% 9% 40% 33% 34% 33% 0 34% 10% 42%
Management
Semi -skilled or operative job
Whole economy 44% 48% Renewables
Table 6.2 shows the distribution of Whole economy employers by the types of activity in Renewables which they are engaged. It reveals that rms are engaged in multiple activities. Employers in the onshore sector are more likely to be engaged in 15 20 25 30 35 40 site planning and development (55% of emale employment employers) compared with the offshore sector (37%) and the marine sector (44%). Other than this, there is relatively little variation in the data, except that the offshore and marine sub-sectors are more likely to be engaged in installation and maintenance. Overall, around half of all employers in the renewable sector employ fewer 36% Onshore: large than 25 people, and over 80% have 250 Onshore: medium 5% employees or less (84%). The percentage 13% employers Onshore: small of larger operating in the industry has increased since 2010, with 37% Of f shore 16% of employers now reporting that Marine 9% they employed more than 250 employees compared to less than 10% in 2010. In general, there is little variation in Total employment: 18,645 FTE the size of Results rms engaged in onshore Survey from mid-2013 technologies, while employers in the offshore and marine sectors are likely to be larger (see Table 6.3).
17%
26%
28%
34%
23%
31%% 32% 32% 10 25% 5%

20
35% 39% 39% 30 28% 11%
34% 43% 40% 40 28% 16%
35% 44% 39% 50 34% 16% 50%
33% 40% 38% 35% 13% 43%
40%
41%
48%
Sources: RenewableUK/EU Skills Survey of Renewable Energy Organisations 2013 (CE, IER, IFF).
Table 6.3: Activities of Organisations in the Renewable Energy Sector According to Size of Employer (Column Percentages) All onshore wind Number of employees: 024 25249 59% 25% 55% 27% 18% 55% 25% 19% 58% 25% 17% Large onshore wind Medium onshore wind Small 11% Offshore Marine All rms Manuf acture or manufacturing design onshore wind energy wind 27% Construction & Installation
16% 18% 1% 2% Operation and maintenance 25% Site Planning or development
47% 31% 22%
Support services and other activities Decommissioning
44%
56%
More than 250 16%
Specialised Transport
29%
28% 16%
27%
Each column gives the breakdown of employers by size for that technology. Sources: RenewableUK / EU Skills Survey of Renewable Energy Organisations 2013 (CE, IER, Total employment: 18,645 FTE IFF).
12000 62% England 10000 Marine
42
6.2 Occupational structure

Respondents to the survey were asked how many people were employed in the following occupations:
Figure 5.3: Occupational Structure of Employment Figure 6.3: Occupational Structure of Employment
Other employees incl. administrative support staf f Semi- skilled or operative job Skilled manual or technical jobs Technical prof essional jobs Management 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
management jobs, which would typically require employees to be qualied to degree level or equivalent; 2010 technical professional jobs, such 2013 as professional engineers, which would typically require employees to be qualied to degree level or 20 30 40 50 60 equivalent; skilled manual or technical jobs, % of employers where employees would typically be qualied through an advanced Apprenticeship or equivalent; semi-skilled or operative jobs, where employees would have a lower level of qualication than those discussed above; other employees, including Whole economy administrative support staff.
Renewables
All sectors Renewables
% of employment
Table 6.4: Occupational Structure of the Renewable Sector by Activity Management jobs Technical professional jobs Skilled manual or technical jobs Semiskilled or operative job Other employees incl. administrative support staff 9% 11%
Site planning or
34%
48% 46%
6% 10%
3% 8%
development Figure 6.3 shows the occupational structure of employment in the Manufacture or 25% manufacturing renewable sector, and reveals the design relative dependence of the sector upon Construction 31% people working in professional and Installation 30% associate professional occupations. In general, the data reveals that Maintenance 28% 30 40 50 the occupational prole of the new Site operation 32% ale employment renewable sector is skewed towards Specialised trans31% more relatively high-skill occupations, port especially in its reliance upon technician/ Support services 30% professional jobs. DIRECT EMPLOYMENT ACROSS Average for all re33%
38% 38% 40% 39% 42% 47% 42%
12% 13% 17% 12% 12% 12% 11%
7% 9% 7% 7% 4% 4% 5%
11% 10% 8% 10% 11% 6% 9%
25% 11%
The occupational structure of employment varies according to the type of renewable energy in which the employer is engaged. The latest survey reveals:
Site Planning or development
WIND AND MARINE ENERGY, 2013 newables activities
Sources: RenewableUK/EU Skills Survey of Renewable Energy Organisations 2013 (CE, IER, IFF).
The relative dependency of large and medium onshore and marine 16% Operation and maintenance employers on people working 18% Support services and other activities in professional and associate 1% Decommissioning professional occupations; 2% Transport Specialised The relatively high share of people working in skilled trades occupations in the offshore sector; Total 18,645 FTE employment: The relatively low percentage of Survey Results from mid-2013 people working in semi-skilled occupations across all types of technology.
27% Construction & Installation
Manuf acture or manufacturing design
Table 6.4 provides data on the occupational structure by the type of activity in which employers are engaged. The table shows that: Site planning, manufacturing/ manufacturing design and support services have a relatively high demand for people working in technical/professional occupations; and Maintenance activities are relatively dependent upon people working in skilled trades jobs.
27% 16% 57%
DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN LARGE SCALE ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013
43
7. Labour market challenges

7.1 Hard-to-fill vacancies
Employers were asked if they had had any vacancies over the past 12 months which had proved hard to ll. Overall, 37% of employers had experienced hard-to-ll vacancies (HtFVs), compared with 26% in 2010 (see Table 7.1). On average, these employers each had just under six vacancies which All sectors had proved hard to ll (compared to 2.5 in 2010). Renewables
5.4 Figure 7.1: Impact of Hard-to-ll Vacancies on Organisational Performance
None of these Outsource work Increase workload f or other staf f Have dif culties introducing new working Increase operating costs Have dif culties meeting quality standards Delay developing new products or services Lose business or orders to competitors 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
The industry has had around 1,000 hard-to-ll vacancies over the past (equivalent 20 25 year 30 35 40 45 to around 5.7% of all employment in the renewable sector). f employment Of companies which had HtFVs, 77% of these (which is equivalent to 30% of all employers) had experienced HtFVs for technical professional staff. This is more or less the same as in 2010, when 30% of all employers reported that they had experienced difculties recruiting technical/professional staff.
% of employers
Table 7.1: Incidence of Hard-to-Fill Vacancies All onshore wind Hard-to-ll vacancies Yes, in the last 34% 36% 31% 28% 39% 7.2 47% 7.7 37% 5.7 Large onshore wind Medium onshore wind Small onshore wind Offshore Marine wind energy All rms
In general, when employers experienced 12 months HtFVs, most reported that these Average number 5.2 were due to applicants lacking the of HtFVs where skills, qualications, or experience companies have HtFVs to undertake the job. And where HtFVs arose, they were seen as being Estimated Num- 485 ber of HtFVs damaging to the business, especially in relation to increasing the workload Occupational characteristics on other employees, but also in losing of HtFVs business to competitors (see Figure 7.1). Management 46% The underlying causes of HtFVs in the jobs industry could not be determined from Technical pro77% the survey but, given the rapid growth fessional jobs DIRECT AND INDIRECT EMPLOYMENT of the industry, it would be reasonable ACROSS WIND AND MARINE Skilled manual 16% to attribute them, at least in part, to a ENERGY, 2013 or technician fast-growing skills demand continuing jobs to outpace supply. In an industry Semi-skilled or 2% characterised by many small rms, this operative jobs puts forward a case for more targeted Other employ4% measures to improve skills provision. Construction & Installation 27% ees including The UK-wide Employers Skills Survey 57% Other direct 2011 reported that overall, 31% of HtFVs in the economy were in professional/ associate professional jobs, and 15%
16% Operation and maintenance
781
588
972
40% 81% 17%
41% 84% 14%
37% 81% 15%
3% 7%
15% 9% 30%
5% 7%
2% 6%
admin support staff
Excludes employers which fall into the Others category, 46% but these are included in the total. Indirect The number of hard-to-ll vacancies sums to more than in all rms column because employers operate in more than one technology sector Sources: RenewableUK/EU Skills Survey of Renewable Energy Organisations 2013 (CE, IER, IFF).
Site planning and development 50 60 70 80 90 0 10 20 30 40 50 60
employers
% of employers
44
5.5 --VERSION Figure 7.2:2!!!!! Percentage of Employment Accounted for by Women were in skilled trade occupations. The method used to calculate HtFVs in the Employers Skills Survey is different to that used in the renewable survey, but it does illustrate that a relatively Semi -skilled or operative job large share of HtFVs in the economy as a whole just under half are in Skilled manual or technical jobs occupations upon which the renewable energy sector is particularly dependent. Whole economy In other words, renewables is facing Technical prof essional jobs similar resourceRenewables constraints to those faced by the economy generally, and is Management therefore in competition with many other sectors for the same skills.
25 30 35 40 0 10 20 30 40
Whole economy Renewables
50
7.2 mployment
Gender representation
Overall, around 20% of employment in the sector is accounted for by women, a similar gure to that of the oil and gas industry according to research conducted in 2009.9 This is also a similar proportion to the UK power sector in 2013. An indicative assessment has been made of the percentage of jobs lled by women in the economy as a 36% Onshore: large whole and in the renewable sector, to Onshore: medium 5% show how the renewable sector differs from the overall 13% Onshore: smalleconomy (see Figure 7.2).
37% Of f shore Marine 9% can As be seen, when compared to the economy as a whole, women appear to be relatively under-represented in management occupations, technical and professional occupations.
25% 11% 27% 16% 18% 1% 2%
However, this is also the case for the UK power sector as a whole. Compared to the power sector average, the wind and marine sector has been more successful in attracting women to the sector in technical and professional-level jobs (26%, compared to 18%).
7.3 UK citizens
Overall, 91% of employment in the 4% Wales sector is accounted for by people who 21% Scotland are UK citizens. This is similar to the UK 4% N.Ireland economy-wide average. The proportion 9% or Mobile is 90% more for all technologies, with small onshore wind reporting a somewhat higher percentage than the others (94%).
9. Research conducted by the UK Resource Centre in 2009.
12000 Marine 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 England Wales Scotland N.Ireland Mobile Of f shore Onshore: small Onshore: medium Onshore: large Survey Results from mid-2013
62%
England
DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN OFFSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013
45
8. Conclusions
8.1 The sector today
The UK wind and marine energy sector has endured a difcult period, with a global economic downturn and an environment of greater policy uncertainty here in the UK (around Electricity Market Reform, in particular). Nevertheless, the sector has achieved substantial growth, with employment increasing by some 74% (7,886 jobs) between 2010 and 2013. In marked contrast to many other UK industries, the sector has also seen a near-trebling in turnover in that time. The latest survey points to a more balanced technology mix than was the case in 2010, with particularly strong growth in offshore wind (a doubling to 6,830 jobs) and small onshore wind (2,464 jobs; four times the number in 2010). The emergence of medium-scale wind is also evident in the latest survey. The sector is maturing, and higher levels of installed capacity are reected in a gradual shift away from earlystage activities like planning (though it remains extremely important) and towards construction and operations jobs (which account for around half of all employment). Employment growth in construction and installation has been particularly rapid, with 2,367 more jobs in 2013 than in 2010. The previous study highlighted the risks of Hard-to-Fill Vacancies (HtFVs) in the wind and marine energy sector, particularly for technical professional staff, an occupational type on which the sector is highly dependent. This is a more pressing issue for companies in 2013, increasing workloads for existing staff and reducing capacity, possibly at the cost of losing business to competitors. In the past year, we estimate there to have been in the region of 1,000 HtFVs. In a high-growth sector such as wind and marine energy, recruitment difculties represent a signicant challenge to maximising future growth. The skillsets required in the wind and marine energy sector are similar to those demanded in other sectors of the economy. This highlights the need for a coherent strategy to promote the supply of highly skilled workers, but also illustrates the competition that the wind and marine energy sector faces in order to attract future talent. Firms in the sector are, for the most part, SMEs: over half of employers have workforces of fewer than 25 people, and 84% have fewer than 250 employees. This, combined with the labour shortages in the sector, highlights the importance of carefully directed skills funding to support growth in the industry. The sector generates substantial value (with estimated turnover of over 8bn) and, moreover, supports other sectors of the UK economy further up the supply chain, accounting for 15,908 indirect jobs. In total, UK wind and marine energy supports 34,373 direct and indirect jobs. In the high scenario, 55,683 direct jobs are projected by 2023, supporting a further 49,109 indirect jobs in the rest of the UK economy; In the medium scenario, there is the potential for 30,804 direct jobs and 21,736 indirect jobs; In the low scenario, there could be as many as 16,443 direct jobs and 9,488 indirect jobs.
This time around, it is the high scenario, rather than the medium one, that bears the closest resemblance to the current outlook for the industry. Over time, the projections show a shift in emphasis away from activities that relate to the early stages of deployment, such as planning and development, and towards more operations- and maintenance-oriented functions. This is a feature of the future maturation of the industry and, crucially, also marks a transition to more permanent jobs, which are sustained by the requirement to supply renewable electricity, rather than jobs that depend on continued construction (and which are temporary in nature). In that context, more of the industrys future jobs will be long-term, rather than short-term, in nature. While the sector has delivered strong growth in these difcult years, policy support is critical to ensure that this continues apace in the coming decade.
8.2 Future prospects

This study also considers the future employment potential in the sector. Recent developments present a more challenging future outlook for the industry than was predicted in 2011, and the scenarios modelled are now more conservative, reecting both greater policy uncertainty and a lower level of optimism within the sector. In particular, the higher deployment scenarios consider the constraints of the proposed levy control framework, while the lower deployment scenarios represent the implications of policy failure to support wind and marine energy (in contrast to the previous studys projection of simply lower growth).
46
Appendix
Key definitions
Technologies
The wind and marine energy sector in this study refers to ve technology types: 1. Large-scale onshore wind, consisting of wind turbines over 500kW in size; 2. Medium-scale onshore wind, consisting of wind turbines between 100kW and 500kW in size; 3. Small-scale wind systems, for wind turbines less than 100kW in size; 4. Offshore wind, covering wind turbines deployed in a marine environment; 5. Marine energy, for wave and tidal stream energy technologies. Of the above, medium-scale onshore wind is now separately identied (whereas, previously, it was counted within large-scale onshore wind). Induced employment comes about from direct and indirect employees spending (part of) their additional income on goods and services in the UK economy. This leads to further UK output and employment through (Keynesian) spending effects. Induced employment effects are usually more relevant at the local, rather than national or UK, level. They also include some element of double-counting (such that the total across all sectors would exceed UK output and employment). Moreover, the spending effects per unit of additional income are assumed to be common to all sectors: workers in the wind and marine energy sector are assumed to have the same spending patterns as workers in any other sector of the UK economy. In that sense, the induced effect is not distinctive to the sector. Thus, while the model does generate projections of induced employment (which would add to the direct and indirect jobs gures), they are not reported in this study. - components (such as nacelle covers and blades, rotor hubs and towers); Manufacture and assembly of main units related to balance of plant (foundations, substations, cables, etc).
Types of employment
Full-Time Equivalent (FTE) employment is a measure of the number of employees in a rm or sector. Employees who regularly work more than 30 hours per week are counted as one FTE, while those that work part-time (less than 30 hours per week) are counted as half a FTE. This is in order to measure the effective number of full-time employees. The implication is that one FTE may represent more than one actual employee. Direct employment covers employees who spend the majority of their working day on activities specic to wind or marine energy. Indirect employment covers employees whose principal activity is not wind or marine energy-specic, but who work in sectors that supply goods and services to the wind and marine energy sector. In that sense their employment is indirectly supported by the UK wind and marine energy sector.
Types of activity in the UK wind and marine energy sector

This study identies the following activities within the UK wind and marine energy sector, covering the entire asset lifecycle of these sites: Site planning and development refers to all activities that relate to the planning and development of wind and marine energy sites; Manufacturing and design covers activities that relate directly to the design and manufacture of wind and marine energy components. It excludes the manufacture of generic components such as gearbox components (which would be classied as an indirect economic activity). This activity thus comprises: - Technology R&D; - Assembly and sale of complete devices (complete wind, tidal stream and wave power generation units); - Manufacture of specialist key
Construction refers to the construction of civil/maritime industry-specic components of wind/marine farms, including balance of plant (but excluding general infrastructure, such as roads leading to sites); Installation, covering the installation of wind and marine energy devices and electrical components of devicespecic balance of plant; Operations and maintenance, covering activities related to the operation and running of wind and marine sites, as well as servicing of devices on those sites, electrical components and balance of plant; Specialist transport covers transport activities that relate specically to transport of employees and components to and from wind and marine sites, possibly requiring specialist transport equipment to specically service wind and marine sites; Decommissioning/ recommissioning concerns wind and marine energy sites that have reached the end of their operational life and are either dismantled or repowered; Specialist support services and other covers the wide range of wind and marine energy-specic activities not covered by any of the above, including: - Technical consultancy; - Environmental consultancy; - Specialist legal services; - Specialist nancial services; - Specialist insurance services.
Of the above, Decommissioning/ recommissioning is a new category compared to the previous study that recognises that some installed capacity
47
in the UK has reached the end of its life and has either been decommissioned or repowered. Specialist transport was previously included as part of Specialist support services and other.
Methodology
The survey
The rst step in the study was to carry out a new survey of UK wind and marine energy companies, to obtain an up-todate picture of the sector. The survey approach was similar to that followed for the rst Working for a Green Britain study, to achieve a similar set of aims: To measure employment in the sector in mid-2013, by technology, activity and nation; To assess the demand for skills in the sector and the nature of skills shortages (i.e. supply); To obtain additional supporting information (including turnover in the sector), for incorporation into the employment projections model.
of 598 employers (i.e. by assuming that non-respondents would have the same characteristics as respondents). The data were grossed up to reect this total.
The employment model

The employment model applied for this study is an improved and updated version of that used for the rst Working for a Green Britain study. The purpose of the model is to generate projections for UK employment under alternative trajectories of renewables deployment in the UK (across the asset lifecycle) as well as in the rest of the world (through UK exports of manufactured components). The model distinguishes two main types of employment, matching the denitions above: Direct employment; and Indirect employment.
Contracted and permanent employment

This study distinguishes between: Contracted employment, which is temporary employment in activities sustained by the construction of new (or the decommissioning/repowering of old) wind and marine sites; Permanent employment, which is employment sustained by the requirement to operate and maintain current installed capacity.
In this context, permanent employment is long-term in nature, whereas contracted employment depends on (continued) construction of new projects.
Other terminology
Learning rates refers to the changing relationship between the cost of developing and operating a particular technology and the scale at which that technology is deployed. This is in order to capture increases in efciencies and reductions in costs as a technology matures, such that the cost reductions from deploying earlier units are greater than the reductions from subsequent units. Learning rates are expressed in percentages and refer to the additional cost saving that arises from each doubling of capacity. In the projections reported herein, learning rates have been translated into changes in labour productivity, under the assumption that labour costs are the same as other business costs and thus subject to the same gains from learning. Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) are companies that supply equipment to other companies for resale or for incorporation into other products, using the resellers brand names.
The survey was undertaken by IFF Research as a series of telephone interviews between 25 February 2013 and 9 April 2013, with some follow-up calls between 7 June 2013 and 17 June 2013. The sample of companies was provided by RenewableUK, with 691 companies identied as being within the scope of the study. The companies were notied by email ahead of the actual interviews, and were also provided with a data sheet listing the information that would be asked of them (giving them time to gather more detailed data in preparation for the interview). In total, 237 companies were interviewed. This is slightly fewer than the 253 companies that responded last time and may be due, in part, to some consolidation in the industry (i.e. mergers and acquisitions). This is supported by the observed increase in the number of different activities that individual companies are engaged in. In order to gross up the sample data to a population estimate, the survey data were weighted. There were 691 companies in the scope of the study; however, for 93 companies no contact details were found and it was assumed that they no longer existed. An adjustment was also made to the number of large companies, since it was easier to identify how many large rms had participated in the survey. Further investigation of the data suggested a population total
In order to do this, the model must not only be able to relate projections of future installed capacity to (direct) employment, but must also capture the relationship between the wind and marine energy sector and the rest of the UK economy, in order to identify (indirect) employment further up the supply chain. The model also captures jobs supported by the additional direct and indirect employment income that goes towards further spending. As mentioned in the previous section, these gures are not reported in this study. Three scenarios were modelled and reported in this study (high, medium and low), each consisting of a set of assumptions relating to: Future UK deployment of wind and marine energy devices; The extent to which UK manufacturing will supply manufactured components to support wind and marine energy deployment elsewhere in the world; The extent to which the wind and marine energy sector will locate manufacturing activities in the UK, leading to more of the sectors supply requirements being met by UK production (and thus UK employees).
48
Modelling direct employment

Direct employment in the UK wind and marine energy sector is linked to the alternative projections for future UK and world deployment of such devices. A key feature of the modelling approach is the way in which it makes a distinction between different activities over the lifecycle of the wind and marine energy devices, from the initial planning stages, through to construction and subsequent operation, before the sites are either decommissioned or repowered at the end of their life. Appendix Figure 1 shows an indicative time plan for the deployment, operation and end-of-life of a notional wind or marine device. The diagram divides the lifecycle into three key phases: Planning and construction, before the site becomes operational; Operations and maintenance, while the site is operational; Decommissioning/recommissioning, after the site has reached the end of its life. A further implication is that some employment relates to the amount of capacity actually installed (employment required to operate and maintain wind and marine sites) while other forms of employment relate to changes in the amount of capacity installed (to bring new sites online or to take old sites ofine). This gives rise to a distinction between permanent jobs, which are those that relate to the installed assets (representing a sustained source of employment), and contracted or temporary jobs, which depend on continued construction activity (and thus ever-increasing UK capacity). The nature of the deployment lifecycle means that, in any given year, there are employees engaged in activities that relate to: Future installed capacity (planning, manufacturing and construction); Current installed capacity (operations, maintenance and various support services); Past installed capacity (decommissioning or recommissioning).
Appendix Figure 1: Asset Lifecycle of Wind and Marine Energy Devices
Capacity is operational (generating employment during installation life)
Site planning or development Manufacture or manufacturing design Construction Installation Maintenance Site operation Specialised transport Support services Decommissioning/Recommissioning
Planning and construction (generating employment before capacuty comes on stream
Decommissioning/ Recommissioning (generating employment at end of life)
Moreover, depending on the technology, some activities may take a number of years, such that, for example, construction work in a given year will relate in part to capacity due to come online in the following year, but also to capacity in the years after (for multi-year construction projects). Construction and installation, and all activities that support current installed capacity, benet from learning over time, such that the numbers of jobs per MW in 2023 is (somewhat) lower than the current gures. The rate of learning varies by technology, with slower efciency gains in relatively more established technologies (large onshore and offshore wind) and faster gains in others (medium and small onshore, and marine energy). This treatment of direct employment gives rise to employment proles (shown in the main report) that follow the capacity projections broadly, but far from exactly. This is because it is not just the level of capacity in each year that matters, but where that capacity lies on the overall deployment trajectory (the rates of change/growth). This is perhaps clearest in the difference between the high deployment scenario for offshore wind and the medium and low scenarios, where part of the difference in employment relates to the UK making a sustained commitment to new offshore wind to 2030 in the high scenario, generating planning, manufacturing and construction employment not required in the medium and low scenarios.
In a number of scenarios, it is common to see more capacity deployed at the beginning of the period, followed by a more gradual increase later in the period. This leads to employment proles that place more emphasis on contracted jobs earlier in the period (for construction of new capacity) and permanent jobs later in the period (when most of the activity in the sector relates to operating and maintaining the stock of installed capacity). Thus, for each technology, the annual cumulative and incremental capacity in each projection is translated into an activity prole through time, in order to account for the entire asset lifecycle. This is also the reason why it is important for the model to project through time, to acknowledge the time prole. Future UK capacity is the main driver behind the projections, with three other factors governing the nal employment results: Learning: as relatively nascent technologies, wind and marine devices can be expected to become cheaper over time, as technologies and working practices improve. In the model, as more capacity is deployed, learning-by-doing effects emerge, leading to capacity installed earlier in the period being relatively more costly (and labour-intensive) than capacity installed later in the period. The ratio of jobs to MW falls over time, particularly so in the case of marine energy, where the structure
49
of the sector now (with a heavy emphasis on R&D, etc.) will likely be quite different to the future structure of the industry, as the technology matures. Global deployment of wind and marine devices: deployment of wind and marine devices will not be conned to the UK and, depending on the technology, the UK will be in a position to export manufactured components to the rest of the world. In all but small onshore wind, the assumption is that these components will not be exported any further aeld than Europe (conning the potential market to future European deployment). It is assumed that UK production relating to small onshore wind can service demand globally. High, medium and low scenarios were developed that vary in the extent to which the UK could supply components overseas in the future. UK domestic supply: in some technologies, the extent to which supply is met by UK production may change over time. In particular, a high proportion of the UK marine supply chain is located in the UK, but this is likely to fall to 70% with outsourcing over time (in all scenarios). In the case of offshore wind, the medium and high scenarios incorporate projections of more overall contract award in the UK to support UK deployment, from 37% now (based on a UK content analysis of the Robin Rigg offshore wind farm10 ), rising to 40% in 2023 in the medium scenario and 55% in the high scenario (also in 2023). Under the assumption of a xed ratio of UK contracts to UK content,11 this is consistent with a 32% UK content share (in line with the Robin Rigg analysis), rising to 35% and 48% by 2023 in the medium and high scenarios, respectively.
wind projects that are expected to be built between 2015 and 2019 generate requirements for planning and development activities now, in 2013. The lead times to consent vary by technology, with longer lead times on large onshore, offshore and marine energy (two to six years) and much shorter lead times on medium- (one year) and small-scale onshore (within the same year). In the case of offshore wind, the average size of future sites (in MW) is expected to increase, and an adjustment factor is applied to account for the fact that an increase in future installed capacity (expressed in MW) will not translate, onefor-one, into an increase in jobs.
supply increases in the medium and high scenarios only, to 40% and 55%, respectively.
Construction and installation

As with planning and manufacturing, construction activity takes place before the new capacity becomes operational. The lead and construction times vary by technology: An average of three years for offshore wind and marine; An average of two years for large onshore wind; Medium and small onshore wind sites are completed in one year.
Manufacturing and design

Employment in manufacturing and design activities depends on the following factors: The level of UK deployment each year (accounting for differences in the length of time to bring a site online); The level of global deployment and the extent to which the UK is able to supply manufactured components to support that deployment; The extent to which productive capacity changes in the UK, increasing (or decreasing) the amount of the supply chain located in the UK (with implications for jobs).
Operations and maintenance

Operations and maintenance activities each year are tied directly to the amount of capacity in the system at that time, adjusted for learning (productivity gains).
Specialist transport
Specialist transport activities each year are tied directly to the amount of capacity in the system at that time, adjusted for learning (productivity gains).
Decommissioning/ recommissioning
At the end of life, wind and marine energy sites must either be decommissioned or recommissioned (repowered). The updated employment model does incorporate assumptions on the average life of capacity built over the projection period, but this activity takes place after 2023 (the end point for this current study). As such, for now, the assumption is that the number of jobs in decommissioning/ recommissioning is constant to 2023, and set at the level of employment identied in the survey. In any case, the current gure is small and thus has little bearing on the results across scenarios.
With the exception of small-scale wind systems, where potential consumers are global, the potential for export to overseas markets is conned to Europe. The assumptions on overseas deployment are similar to those from the previous Working for a Green Britain study, and are based on data and projections from the Global Wind Energy Council, the European Wind Energy Association and the EMEA. As mentioned previously, in all the projections, the domestic share of the marine supply chain is expected to fall from 100% now to 70% by 2023, while the domestic share of offshore wind
Site planning and development

For the most part, employment in site planning and development relates to capacity due to come online in later years. As an example, large onshore
Specialist Support Services and Other

Specialist Support Services and Other
10. www.eon-uk.com/E.ON_Robin_Rigg_UK_content_report_October_2011.pdf 11. Some of the UK contracts will involve overseas subcontracting and, conversely, some overseas contracts will make use of UK subcontractors.
50
activities each year are tied directly to the amount of capacity in the system at that time, adjusted for learning (productivity gains).
Modelling indirect employment

Indirect employment relates to jobs that are generated outside of the wind and marine energy sector through supply-chain linkages. As an example, wind turbine manufacture generates direct employment in UK wind-energy manufacturing (because such turbines are a sector-specic technology), but also indirect employment elsewhere in the UK because there will also be requirements for more generic components (such as gearbox components) which are not specic to the wind energy sector. In order to identify indirect employment, it is necessary to link the wind and marine energy sector identied from the survey (and for which direct employment is projected according to the approach outlined above) to other sectors in the UK economy. This requires the reconciliation between the information obtained from the survey conducted for this update with ofcial statistics on the UK economy, from the UK Ofce for National Statistics (ONS). There is currently no single wind and marine energy sector identied within the Standard Industrial Classication.12 Instead, such activities are grouped within sectors such as manufacturing, engineering, electricity, construction and various types of business service (e.g. architecture, in the case of planning and development). The rst step in the method involves separating out the activities identied in the survey from the broader aggregates in the UK data (the parent sectors). This leads to the construction of a modied UK inputoutput table. An input-output table is a key part of the economic accounting framework from which the well-known economic indicator Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is derived. The purpose of an input-output table is to depict an economys industrial
structure in terms of industry sectors and their purchases of inputs from other UK industries, as well as labour. These purchases are expressed in monetary units (pounds sterling). In this way, an input-output table describes the supply chain of an economy. An input-output table implies that a one-unit increase in output entails a more-than-one-unit increase in economywide output, because industries must purchase inputs from other industries, which must in turn purchase further inputs from elsewhere in the economy. These effects are expressed as (output) multipliers: the ratio of economy-wide (direct plus indirect) output to the initial (direct) change in output. The application of productivity gures (output per FTE worker) to the output multipliers leads to a set of employment multipliers: the ratio of economy-wide (direct plus indirect) jobs to the initial (direct) change in jobs arising from employment in the wind and marine energy sector. The starting point for the analysis is the most recent ofcial UK inputoutput table (for 2005). Additional rows and columns to represent the various activities in the wind and marine energy sector (differentiated by technology) are then created based on the turnover gures from the survey and UK turnover data from ONS. The wind and marine activities have been split out from the most appropriate sectors identied in the original table. For example, planning and development activities are split out from the Architecture and technical consultancy sector of the original table. UK-level employment gures are similarly adjusted to account for the parts of each sector that are wind and marine energy related. A number of further adjustments have been made to the supply chains, in order to better reect the specicities of the wind and marine energy sector. For example, the operations component of wind and marine energy differs from the electricity sector of the UK as a whole, because there is obviously no
requirement for fossil fuels for generation. Such ows have been set to zero. Having formed projections of direct employment (and output) as described above, indirect employment arises from calculating the indirect output generated by the direct jobs and converting back to employment using current and projected productivity gures for the rest of the economy (sourced from Cambridge Econometrics MDM-E3 model of the UK economy).
Revisions in approach
The approach is very similar to that developed for the previous Working for a Green Britain study, with the principal differences arising from: New data (from a more up-todate survey, but also because new economic data have become available). Greater disaggregation/more direct activities identied in the modelling. In particular, the model now separately identies medium onshore wind from large onshore wind, and also distinguishes Specialist transport and Decommissioning/ recommissioning as activities in the sector.
12. The Standard Industrial Classication (SIC) is the statistical system in the UK to which all businesses and other entities are categorised, according to their economic activity. It distinguishes a wide range of agriculture, manufacturing, utilities, construction and service activities.
51
Our vision is for renewable energy to play a leading role in powering the UK.
RenewableUK Greencoat House, Francis Street London SW1P 1DH, United Kingdom Tel: +44 (0)20 7901 3000 Fax: +44 (0)20 7901 3001 Web: www.RenewableUK.com Email: info@RenewableUK.com RenewableUK is the UKs leading renewable energy trade association, specialising in onshore wind, offshore wind, and wave & tidal energy. Formed in 1978, we have a large established corporate membership, ranging from small independent companies to large international corporations and manufacturers. Acting as a central point of information and a united, representative voice for our membership, we conduct research, nd solutions, organise events, facilitate business development, advocate and promote wind and marine renewables to government, industry, the media and the public.
Energy & Utility Skills (EU Skills) is the Sector Skills Council (SSC) for the gas, power, waste management and water industries, licensed by Government and working under the guidance of the UK Commission for Employment and Skills (UKCES). Employer-led, our purpose is to ensure that our industries have the skills they need now and in the future. Energy & Utility Skills Friars Gate, 1011 Stratford Road Shirley, Solihull, B90 4BN, United Kingdom Tel: +44 (0)845 077 99 22 Web: www.euskills.co.uk Email: enquiries@euskills.co.uk The energy and utilities sector is fundamental to the success of the UK economy and is crucial to the way modern society functions. It is critical to facilitate an adequate supply of competent people to develop, maintain and enhance the sector. A skilled workforce is vital for meeting the challenges of an increasingly competitive global economy and particularly during this tough economic climate, where skills are the key lever for successful competition. Our commitment is to raise employer engagement, demand and investment in skills, to ensure that we have authoritative labour market information for all of our industries and to develop National Occupational Standards (NOS) to ensure that qualications meet employer needs.

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34-Working For A Green Britain N Nother Ireland 2013

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www.RenewableUK.

Working for a Green Britain & Northern Ireland 201323

Cover image: Siemens press picture

Maria McCaffery Chief Executive, RenewableUK

Energy & Utility Skills

Working for a Green Britain and Northern Ireland

A UK-wide highly skilled employment base

Semi- skilled or operative job

Skilled manual or technical jobs

The sector by technology & turnover

Direct Employment Across Wind And Marine Energy, 2013

36% 5% 13% 37% 9%

Onshore: large Onshore: medium Onshore: small Of f shore Marine

Total employment: 18,645 FTE Survey Results from mid-2013

Future industry growth

EMPLOYMENT ACROSS WIND AND MARINE ENERGY, 2013 AND 2023

Employment Across Wind And Marine Energy, 2013 And 2023

1. Volume 1: www.renewableuk.com/en/publications/reports.cfm/Working-for-a-Green-Britain-Volume-1 Volume 2: www.renewableuk.com/en/publications/reports.cfm/Working-for-a-Green-Britain-Volume-2

What activities are identied?

The technologies covered

2.2 Key definitions

2.3 The scenarios

Semi- skilled or operative job

Skilled manual or technical jobs

Whole economy Renewables

3. Overview of Survey Results

3.1 Current employment

36% 5% 13% 37% 9%

Onshore: large Onshore: medium Onshore: small Of f shore Marine

Total employment: 18,645 FTE Survey Results from mid-2013

Total employment: 2,464 FTE Survey Results from mid-2013

% of female employment % of female employment

DIRECT EMPLOYMENT ACROSS WIND AND MARINE ENERGY, 2013

DIRECT EMPLOYMENT ACROSS WIND AND MARINE ENERGY, 2013

25% 11% 27% 16% 18% 1% 2%

Wind And Marine Energy by Nation, 2013

Survey Results from mid-2013

DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN OFFSHORE

Total employment: 6,830 FTE 3.2 Future prospects

CROSS WIND AND Y, 2013 AND 2023

EMPLOYMENT ACROSS WIND AND MARINE ENERGY, 2013 AND 2023

DIRECT EM AND MARI

EMPLOYMENT ACROSS WIND AND MARINE ENERGY, 2013 AND 2023

60000 50000 40000

DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MARINE ACTIVITIES, 2013

Decommissioning Specialised Transport

Total employment: 6,830 FTE Survey Results from mid-2013

3.3 Other labour market issues

25% 11% 27% 16% 18% 1% 2%

27% 16% 57%

Construction & Installation Operation and maintenance Other direct

Total employment: 18,645 FTE Survey Results from mid-2013

4. Future Employment by Technology

Total employment: 18,645 FTE Survey Results from mid-2013

in Large-Scale Onshore Activities, 2013

28% 10% 20% 16% 24% 1% 1%

EMPLOYMENT ACROSS LARGE ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023

Total employment: 6,609 FTE Survey Results from mid-2013

DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MARINE FigureACTIVITIES, 4.2: Employment Across 2013

Large Onshore Activities, 2013 and 2023

Operation and maintenance

Medium Support services and other activities