Professional Documents
Culture Documents
INDIA
QUARTERLY UPDATE | NOVEMBER | 2013
Accelerating success.
ECONOMIC BAROMETER
Oct-12 REPO RATE REVERSE REPO RATE CRR INFLATION HOME LOaN RaTE
1
Demand for residential units in both the primary and secondary markets remained subdued. Pressures of increasing unsold inventory and a liquidity crunch resulted in fewer project launches. There was an increase in the incentives being offered to sell property, such as easy payment plans, discounts and free gifts with bookings. COLLIERS VIEW: End Users and buyers will continue to be cautious due to the current uncertain economic and political conditions; coupled with high residential prices. Capital values across most micro-markets in almost all the major cities will remain stable, even though transaction volume will remain constraint. Importantly, the current oversupply in the market will get mitigated in the coming quarters, as very limited new projects are being launched.
ECONOMIC INDICATORS
12.0 11.0 10.0 9.0 8.0
SBI Home Loan Rate for Loan upto INR 30 Lakhs SBI Fixed Deposit rate for a period of more than one year and amount below INR 1 Crore 3 Realty Index is a free float weighted index, comprised of real estate development companies in the BSE-500 Index.
1 2
Apr 08
jun 08
Aug08
Oct08
Dec08
Feb 09
Apr 09
Jun 09
Aug09
Oct09
Dec09
Feb10
Apr10
Jun10
Aug10
Oct10
Dec10
Feb11
Apr11
Jun11
Aug11
Oct11
Dec11
Feb12
Apr12
Jun12
Aug12
Oct12
Dec12
Feb13
Apr 13
Jun 13
Aug 13
-1.0 -2.0
Repo Rate
www.colliers.com
Oct 13
MuMBAI
Bandra
200
4Q 2013F
Powai
150 100 50 0
Juhu Worli Colaba, Cuffe Parade
INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES
Micro Market Thane-Kalyan Navi Mumbai Virar- Boisar Ongoing Price (P.S.F) 4,000 - 8,000 3,500 - 7,500 3,000 - 5,500
Andheri
Santacruz
Prabhadevi
Khar
Bandra
Note: Ongoing Price (P.S.F): Indicative asking price for premium residential properties per sq.ft.
20,000 10,000 0
1Q2008
1Q2009
1Q2010
1Q2011
1Q2013
3Q2013
1Q2012
Powai
Colaba, Cuffe Parade Bandra Juhu Malabar Hill, Altamount Road, Carmichael Road
Note: Average Capital/Rental Value Range: Indicative asking price for premium residential properties on per sq.ft. basis.
COlliers InternatiOnal |
P. 3
3Q2014F
3Q2008
3Q2009
3Q2010
3Q2011
3Q2012
1Q2014F
Demand in the secondary sales market for premium residential properties have come down significantly this quarter, however due to the continual interest of expatriates and HNIs in the prime locations of South and Central Delhi, the demand for leasing remained stable for premium properties. The new supply remained limited and primarily in the form of small redevelopment projects in areas, such as Vasant Vihar, Anand Niketan and Safdarjung Enclave.
DElHi
4Q 2013F
Due to the decisions of a number of MNCs / Embassies to attempt to contain their costs in the wake of the current economic scenario, rental values declined by 5 - 14% across the micro markets.
INR per sq.ft. per month
200
Anand Niketan, Vasant Vihar
160 120 80 40
Chanakya Puri
There is a downward pressure on capital values as the asking price for prime residential properties in Delhi has come down by approximately 10 - 15%. However, not many deals have been concluded in the market. A number of infrastructural projects are taking place in the city simultaneously and causing traffic problems in select locations. This may cause the leasing demand to temporarily shift from these areas to other locales. COLLIERS VIEW: Currently, Investors are holding for their decisions due to economic and political uncertainties. The activity in premium residential market will remain sluggish till the election. However, considering the fact that Delhis lease market is primarily driven by the officials of MNCs and expatriates that are currently trying to optimize their costs, rental values may further decline.
1Q2008
3Q2012
3Q2013
1Q2014F
Chanakya Puri
3Q2010
3Q2009
1Q2011
3Q2008
3Q2011
1Q2010
1Q2012
Golf Links, Jor Bagh, Sunder Nagar Chanakya Puri Panchashila, Anandlok, Niti Bagh, SDA Greater Kailash I & II, South Extension
Prithviraj Road, Aurangzeb Road Shanti Niketan, Westend Friends Colony, Maharani Bagh Anand Niketan, Vasant Vihar
Note: Average Capital/Rental Value Range: Indicative asking price for premium residential properties on per sq.ft. basis.
P. 4
| COlliers InternatiOnal
Sushant Lok
GuRgaON
80 60 40
NH - 8
4Q 2013F
20 0
INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES
Micro Market Golf Course Extension Road Sohna Region Pataudi Road New Gurgaon Ongoing Price (P.S.F) 7,500 - 9,000 4,000 - 5,000 4,500 - 5,500 4,000 - 5,000
Sushant Lok
DLF Phase I
Note: Ongoing Price (P.S.F): Indicative asking price for premium residential properties per sq.ft.
1Q2011
DLF Phase I
NH - 8
DLF Phase I
Note: Average Capital/Rental Value Range: Indicative asking price for premium residential properties on per sq.ft. basis.
COlliers InternatiOnal |
P. 5
3Q2014F
3Q2009
1Q2010
1Q2012
1Q2013
3Q2008
3Q2010
3Q2012
3Q2013
3Q2011
1Q2014F
1Q2009
Sector 92/93
Sector 50
Sector 44
NOiDa
40 30 20
Sector 28, 29, 30
4Q 2013F
10 0
Sector 50
INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES
Micro Market NOIDA Expressway Sector 71 to 83 Ongoing Price (P.S.F) 4,000 - 7,000 4,500 - 5,500
Sector 92/93
Note: Ongoing Price (P.S.F): Indicative asking price for premium residential properties per sq.ft.
Note: Average Capital/Rental Value Range: Indicative asking price for premium residential properties on per sq.ft. basis.
P. 6
| COlliers InternatiOnal
CHENNai
75
Siruseri/ Kazipattur
4Q 2013F
60 45
Nungambakkam
Sholinganallur
30
Anna Nagar
15 0
Velachery
INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES
Micro Market Velachery Sholinganallur Siruseri/ Kazipattur Kelambakkam Ongoing Price (P.S.F) 5,000 - 7,000 3,500 - 4,200 3,000 - 4,000 3,000 - 4,000
Beasant Nagar
Note: Ongoing Price (P.S.F): Indicative asking price for premium residential properties per sq.ft.
The State Government imposed an additional charge of 2% on registration and made it mandatory that construction agreements signed between builders and buyers be registered. Currently, the buyer of a new apartment that is under construction must pay 8% (5% stamp duty, 2% surcharge and 1% registration fee) to register the property. COLLIERS VIEW: Adequate growth has been observed in the premium residential market over the last few quarters. Considering the upright demand from end users and investors, capital and rental values are expected to increase by 2 - 5% in the near term.
21,000
17,000
9,000
5,000
1,000 1Q2008 3Q2008 1Q2009 3Q2009 3Q2010 3Q2011 1Q2012 3Q2012 1Q2010 3Q2014F 1Q2011 1Q2013F
Note: Average Capital/Rental Value Range: Indicative asking price for premium residential properties on per sq.ft. basis.
COlliers InternatiOnal |
Velachery
Adyar
Beasant Nagar
Boat Club
T Nagar
P. 7
The Bengaluru residential market recorded increased transaction volumes in both primary and secondary markets. High demand has been observed in the mid-segment residential projects from the IT/ITeS workforce. The micro-markets, which attracted significant interest from buyers were Outer Ring Road (ORR), Whitefield, Jakkur and Koramangala. A few national-level developers such as Puravankara Projects Ltd, Nitesh Estates, Sobha Developers, Raffles Residency, Unishire and LGCL. Developers launched their new projects in micro-markets like Sarjapur, Whitefield, Kanakapura, Thanisandra and Yemalur. Projects were launched in the price range of INR4,000 to 8,000 per sq ft. Capital values witnessed an increase in the range of 3 - 10% QoQ in select precincts of Jayanagar, Bannerghatta Road and Yelahanka, while capital values in all other micro-markets remained stable. Rental values remained stable in almost all micro-markets barring Cooke Town, Jayanagar and Yelahanka where rental values have increased in the range of 6 - 7% QoQ. The Karnataka Stamps and Registration Department has increased the guideline value for properties in the Bangalore Urban, Bangalore Rural and Ramanagara Districts. The guideline values have been revised to the tune of 40 - 100% in selected areas. COLLIERS VIEW: Going forward, we expect capital values in both the primary and secondary sales markets to remain stable considering the huge supply in the pipeline and the continuous addition of new projects. The IT/ITeS sector will remain the primary demand generator for mid-range residential properties.
Whitefield
Bannerghatta Road
Airport Road
bENgaluRu
4Q 2013F
60 40
INR per sq.ft. per month Whitefield (Appts) Jayanagar
20 0
Koramangala
Palace Orchard
INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES
Micro Market Airport Road Bannerghatta Road Whitefield Yelahanka Ongoing Price (P.S.F) 5,000 - 7,000 4,200 - 6,000 4,400 - 6,000 3,500 - 5,000
Airport Road
20,000
Note: Ongoing Price (P.S.F): Indicative asking price for premium residential properties per sq.ft.
15,000
10,000
5,000
3Q2010
3Q2011
1Q2014F
Note: Average Capital/Rental Value Range: Indicative asking price for premium residential properties on per sq.ft. basis.
P. 8
| COlliers InternatiOnal
3Q2014F
1Q2012
3Q2008
1Q2008
3Q2009
3Q2012
1Q2009
1Q2010
1Q2011
3Q2013
1Q2013
Yelahanka
KOlKaTa
50 40 30
PA Shah Road
4Q 2013F
VIP Road
20 10 0
Tollygunge
EM Bypass
Alipore
INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES
Micro Market Tollygunge Behela Salt Lake EM Bypass New Town -Rajarhat Ongoing Price (P.S.F) 3,600 - 4,800 2,900 - 3,700 4,000 - 6,000 4,000 - 7,000 3,200 - 4,600
Salt Lake
Behela
Ballygunge
Loudon Street
Note: Ongoing Price (P.S.F): Indicative asking price for premium residential properties per sq.ft.
Note: Average Capital/Rental Value Range: Indicative asking price for premium residential properties on per sq.ft. basis.
COlliers InternatiOnal |
P. 9
7,000 5,000 3,000 1,000 Kalyani Nagar/Viman Nagar/Kharadi Bhawanipur NIBM/Undri/Kondhwa Magarpatta/Hadapsar Baner/Hinjewadi/ Wakad/Pashan Pimpri/Chinchwad/ Chakan Magarpatta/ Hadapsar 1Q2014F 3Q2014F 3Q2012 Kothrud/Bavdhan/ Wajre Deccan/Camp/ Boat Club
PuNE
30 25
Pimpri/Chinchwad/ Chakan
4Q 2013F
20 15 10 5 0
NIBM/Undri/ Kondhwa
INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES
Micro Market Kalyani Nagar/Viman Nagar/Kharadi Baner/Hinjewadi/Wakad/ Pashan Kothrud/Bavdhan/Wajre NIBM/Undri/Kondhwa Pimpri/Chinchwad/Chakan Ongoing Price (P.S.F) 5,000 - 12,000 3,800 - 6,000 3,800 - 6,000 3,800 - 5,000 3,000 - 4,500
Baner/Hinjewadi/Wakad/Pashan
Note: Ongoing Price (P.S.F): Indicative asking price for premium residential properties per sq.ft.
Note: Average Capital/Rental Value Range: Indicative asking price for premium residential properties on per sq.ft. basis.
P. 10
| COlliers InternatiOnal
Residential SUBMARKETS
Mumbai The high-end residential real estate markets in Mumbai include Malabar Hill, Altamount Road, Carmichael Road, Napean Sea Road, Breach Candy, Colaba, Cuffe Parade, Prabhadevi, Worli, Bandra, Khar, Santacruz, Juhu and Powai. Delhi The prime residential areas in Delhi are in the South region and comprise Vasant Vihar, Westend, Shanti Niketan, Anand Niketan and Central Delhi locations. These areas enjoy proximity to embassies, the airport and central commercial areas - Connaught Place. Gurgaon The prime residential locations of Gurgaon include Golf Course Road, DLF Phase I, Sushant Lok and Sohna Road. The Delhi- Jaipur Highway (NH-8) is also emerging as a preferred residential location owing to its proximity to the national capital. NOIDA NOIDA premium residential market is comprised of sectors 44, 50, 92, 61, 62, 63 , 28, 29, 30 and Taj Express Highway. Chennai The prime residential areas in Chennai include Thiruvanmiyur, Valmiki Nagar and Besant Nagar, R.A Puram, Mylapore and Adyar in South Chennai, Nungambakkam, Chetpet, Poes Garden, Egmore, Alwarpet, T. Nagar in Central Chennai; and Anna Nagar, Kilpauk in North West Chennai. Bengaluru (Bangalore) The residential market of Bengaluru comprises both apartments and independent residences. Currently, high-end residential developments are mainly concentrated along the CBD, and Eastern and South precincts of the city. Recently, Northern Bengaluru has also witnessed a spree of realty activity facilitated by the new International Airport at Devanhalli. Kolkata The prime residential areas in Kolkata include PA Shah Road, Tollygunge and Bhawanipur in South Kolkata, Alipore and Behala in South-west Kolkata, Loudon Street and Ballygunge in Central Kolkata; and Salt Lake, EM Bypass and VIP Road in North Kolkata. Pune The prime residential areas in Pune include Kalyani Nagar, Viman Nagar, Boat Club Road, NIBM Road, Magarpatta, Hadapsar, Koregaon Park. Recently, increased activities has been witnessed in Pimpri-Chinchwad, Baner-Pashan and Kondhwa.
CITY BAROMETERS
Increasing as compared to previous quarter Decreasing as compared to previous quarter Remained stable from previous quarter
COlliers InternatiOnal |
P. 11
482 offices in 62 countries on 6 continents United States: 140 Canada: 42 Latin America: 20 Asia Pacific: 195 EMEA: 85 $2.0 billion in annual revenue 1.1 billion square feet under management Over 13,500 + professionals
AUTHORS
Amit Oberoi MRICS National Director, Valuation & Advisory; Research Email: Amit.oberoi@colliers.com Surabhi Arora MRICS Associate Director, Research Email: Surabhi.arora@colliers.com Sachin Sharma Assistant Manager, Research Email: Sachin.sharma@colliers.com Heliana Mano Assistant Manager, Research Email: Heliana.mano@colliers.com For general queries and feedback : India.Research@colliers.com Tel: +91 124 456 7580
This report and other research materials may be found on our website at www.colliers.com/India. Questions related to information herein should be directed to the Research Department at the number indicated above. This document has been prepared by Colliers International for advertising and general information only. Colliers International makes no guarantees, representations or warranties of any kind, expressed or implied, regarding the information including, but not limited to, warranties of content, accuracy and reliability. Any interested party should undertake their own inquiries as to the accuracy of the information. Colliers International excludes unequivocally all inferred or implied terms, conditions and warranties arising out of this document and excludes all liability for loss and damages arising there from. Copyright 2012 - 2013 All Rights Reserved.
21.95 21.83 21.02 20.61 20.04 16.20 14.70 14.70 13.23 13.23
> Despite anemic U.S. job growth, demand for North American industrial
warehouse space and modern distribution centers remains strong. In Q1 2013, the North American vacancy rate declined for the eighth straight quarter, down 20 basis points to 8.20%. Canadas vacancy rate stands at 4.13%.
> Thanks in part to a recent drop in exports to the United States, Mexico
has seen slowing economic growth. In Q1 2013, several Mexico City industrial warehouses were vacated, slightly increasing the vacancy rate to 3.49%.
> While occupier demand for industrial property in Brazil remains strong,
the market now appears to have stabilized into a more rational mode of sustained growth. So Paulo has seen positive net absorption, in spite of the final tally in 2012 showing a 23% decrease over the previous year.
12.5% 11.1%
> Most U.S. high street rents grew over last year. In New York, Fifth
Avenue rents grew by 11 percent. At $3,052 per square foot, Fifth Avenue rents are the most expensive in the world. On Las Vegas Boulevard, asking rents grew by 25 percent. Philadelphias Walnut Street showed the biggest gains in the U.S., with 33.8 percent growth.
EMEA APAC
> In Hong Kong, high quality warehouse buildings are nearly fully
occupied. Those users seeking to expand or rationalize their real estate costs have had to consider the option of split operations in lower quality buildings.
3.9%
PARIS
2.2%
> Indian economic growth remained sluggish through the end of 2012,
however we expect industrial activity to improve, thanks to recent government actions. These include the government-proposed National Investment and Manufacturing Zones and the newly approved 51% foreign direct investment in multi-brand retail trading.
MIN
SK
OSL
SIN
GAP ORE
SYD
NEY
ver the last two decades, Bengaluru has cemented its position as the leading IT/ITeS. destination amongst top Indian cities. In 2012, Bengaluru commanded a 30% market-share of all of the commercial (office) real estate absorbed across the top seven cities (Delhi NCR, Mumbai, Pune, Chennai, Hyderabad and Kolkata). Bengalurus commercial absorption share was greater than Mumbai and Delhi NCR. The increase in jobs has been the primary growth-driver for residential real estate. The citys population is expected to exceed 12 million by 2020, as compared to 8.5 million in 2011. Now of course the city is experiencing a surge in investors buying real estate. In spite of increasing prices, the city still is comparatively affordable compared to other major cities such as Mumbai and Delhi. With its higher rental yields and favourable currency exchange rates, Bengaluru is emerging as one of the most promising markets in the country for Residential investment. Moreover, the professional approach of developers is also providing much needed comfort to investors as well as end users. Considering the demand potential, it is not only Bengaluru-based developers that are investing, but many national level developers are also entering in this market. The government is also actively participating in the
Colliers Picks: The latest Colliers International research unvails top investment destination in Bengaluru (Bangalore)
commercial developments are most Kharadi & Wagholi in East, Baner, Hinjewadi, Wakad & Pashan, Kothrud, attractive. Pune witnesses multiBavdhan & Wajre in west and Undri & directional growth of residential For investment purpose, the new projects in various locations such Kondhwa in the South. residential developments located as Pimpri, Chinchwad, Chakan & in peripheral areas alongside the Talegaon in North Viman Nagar Markets to witness residential real estate growth
Accelerating success.
Accelerating success.
Accelerating success.
58
56
57
Accelerating success.