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  • Figures From Report, "Drilling California: A Reality Check On The Monterey Shale"

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    The maps and charts included in the report by J. David Hughes entitled "Drilling California: A Reality Check on the Monterey Shale." This report provides the first publicly available empirical analysis of actual oil production data from the Monterey Formation, including from wells that have undergone hydraulic fracturing and acidization. It lays out some of the play’s fundamental characteristics compared to other tight oil plays, including geological properties, current production, production potential, and associated environmental issues.

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    Figures from Report, "Drilling California: A Reality Check on the Monterey Shale"

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    The maps and charts included in the report by J. David Hughes entitled "Drilling California: A Reality Check on the Monterey Shale." This report provides the first publicly available empirical analysis of actual oil production data from the Monterey Formation, including from wells that have undergone hydraulic fracturing and acidization. It lays out some of the play’s fundamental characteristics compared to other tight oil plays, including geological properties, current production, production potential, and associated environmental issues.

    Copyright:

    Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
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    510 views38 pages

    Figures From Report, "Drilling California: A Reality Check On The Monterey Shale"

    Uploaded by

    Post Carbon Institute
    The maps and charts included in the report by J. David Hughes entitled "Drilling California: A Reality Check on the Monterey Shale." This report provides the first publicly available empirical analysis of actual oil production data from the Monterey Formation, including from wells that have undergone hydraulic fracturing and acidization. It lays out some of the play’s fundamental characteristics compared to other tight oil plays, including geological properties, current production, production potential, and associated environmental issues.

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    Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
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    of 38

    J.

    David Hughes

    The Monterey Tight Oil Play in California, With Relevant Sedimentary Basins and Counties

    Hughes GSR Inc, 2013

    (play boundaries from EIA/INTEK report, 2011)

    California Oil Production and Number of Producing Wells, 1980 through May 2013
    1200 70000

    Oil Production (thousand barrels per day)

    Peak 1985
    1000 60000

    Number of Producing Wells

    50000
    800 40000 600 30000 20000 10000

    400

    Oil Production Number of Producing Wells

    200

    0 0 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013

    Year
    Hughes GSR Inc, 2013 (three month trailing moving average; data from Drillinginfo, current through May 2013)

    Density of Inactive and Active Oil Wells in California Drilled Between 1977 and 2013

    Total # of Inactive Wells: 158,549

    Total # of Active Wells: 79,574

    Hughes GSR Inc, 2013

    (data from DI Desktop, August 2013)

    Number of Oil and Gas Wells Drilled in California, by County through May 2013
    160000 140000

    120000

    Number of Wells

    100000

    Total Wells = 238,123 Active or Drilling = 79,574 Non-Productive = 158,549


    Of the wells classified as Active or Drilling only about 50,000 are currently producing.

    80000
    60000 40000 20000 0 Kern Los Angeles Fresno

    Orange

    Ventura

    Santa Monterey Barbara

    Other

    County
    Hughes GSR Inc, 2013 (data from Drillinginfo, current through May 2013)

    California Oil Production by Well Type, 1980 through May 2013


    1200

    Production (thousand barrels per day)

    Peak 1985
    1000

    Other Wells Cyclic Steam Wells Conventional Wells

    800

    600

    400

    200

    0 1980
    Hughes GSR Inc, 2013

    1983

    1986

    1989

    1992

    1995

    1998

    2001

    2004

    2007

    2010

    2013

    Year
    (three month trailing moving average; data from Drillinginfo, current through May 2013)

    Oil Production from the Monterey Formation and the Rest of California, 1980 through May 2013
    1200

    Production (thousand barrels per day)

    Peak 1985
    1000

    Monterey Formation Rest of California

    Monterey Formation
    800

    600

    400

    Rest of California

    200

    0 1980
    Hughes GSR Inc, 2013

    1983

    1986

    1989

    1992

    1995

    1998

    2001

    2004

    2007

    2010

    2013

    Year
    (three month trailing moving average; data from Drillinginfo, current through May 2013)

    Distribution of Potential Tight Oil Production from the Monterey Shale per the EIA/INTEK Report (2011)

    Hughes GSR Inc, 2013

    (from EIA/INTEK report, 2011, http://www.eia.gov/analysis/studies/usshalegas/pdf/usshaleplays.pdf)

    Monterey Formation Oil Production and Number of Producing Wells, 1980 through May 2013
    180 2500

    Oil Production (thousand barrels per day)

    Peak 1982
    160 140 120 1500 2000

    Number of Producing Wells

    100
    80 1000 60 40 20 500

    Oil Production Number of Producing Wells

    0 0 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013

    Year
    Hughes GSR Inc, 2013 (three month trailing moving average; data from Drillinginfo, September 2013)

    Status of Monterey Oil and Gas Wells Drilled From 1980 Through May 2013
    3000

    2500

    Number of Wells

    2000

    Total Wells = 4,921 Active or Drilling = 2,784 Non-Productive = 2,137

    1500

    1000

    500

    0 Active Drilling Plugged (P&A) Inactive Dry Hole Other Shut In

    Well Status
    Hughes GSR Inc, 2013 (data from Drillinginfo, September 2013)

    Distribution of Oil Fields, Including Wells Producing From the Monterey Formation as of May 2013

    Hughes GSR Inc, 2013

    (data from Drillinginfo, current through May 2013)

    Stratigraphic Nomenclature of the Monterey Formation in the San Joaquin Basin

    Hughes GSR Inc, 2013

    (from USGS Bulletin 1713 Chapter 8)

    Oil Production from Subdivisions of the Monterey Formation, 1980 through May 2013
    180

    Peak 1982 Production (thousand barrels per day)


    160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 1980

    Offshore Santa Barbara Stevens Sand Onshore Santa Barbara Monterey Undivided Devilwater Shale McLure Shale Reef Ridge Shale Antelope Shale

    1983

    1986

    1989

    1992

    1995

    1998

    2001

    2004

    2007

    2010

    2013

    Year
    Hughes GSR Inc, 2013 (three month trailing moving average; data from Drillinginfo, September 2013)

    Holly Platform producing from Monterey Formation in the South Ellwood Offshore Field

    Photo by Andy Rusch, licensed under Create Commons, http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Platform_Holly,_Santa_Barbara.jpg.

    Average Onshore Oil Production per Well from Subdivisions of the Monterey Formation, 2000 through May 2013
    160

    Oil Production per Well (barrels per day)

    140 120 100 80

    Stevens Sand Antelope Shale McLure Shale Reef Ridge Shale Onshore Santa Barbara

    60
    40 20 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

    Year
    Hughes GSR Inc, 2013 (three month trailing moving average; data from Drillinginfo, September 2013)

    Oil Production from Shale Reservoirs in the Monterey Formation, 2000 through May 2013
    16

    Production (thousand barrels per day)

    Peak 2002
    14 12 10 8 6 4 2

    Onshore Santa Barbara Monterey Undivided Devilwater Shale McLure Shale Reef Ridge Shale Antelope Shale

    0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

    Year
    Hughes GSR Inc, 2013 (three month trailing moving average; data from Drillinginfo, September 2013)

    Distribution and Depth of McLure Shale (left) and Antelope Shale (right) Source Rocks in the San Joaquin Basin

    Hughes GSR Inc, 2013

    (from USGS Professional Paper 1713, Chapter 8)

    Cross Sections of McLure Shale and Antelope Shale Source Rocks in the San Joaquin Basin

    Hughes GSR Inc, 2013

    (from USGS Professional Paper 1713, Chapter 8)

    Outcrop of Monterey Formation strata at Vandenberg Air Force Base Illustrating Complex Meso-scale Deformation

    Hughes GSR Inc, 2013

    (AAPG Explorer, February 2013, https://www.aapg.org/explorer/2013/02feb/monterey_shale0213.cfm.)

    Typical Type Decline Curves for Monterey Shale Wells Provided in the EIA/INTEK Report

    Hughes GSR Inc, 2013

    (from EIA/INTEK report, 2011, http://www.eia.gov/analysis/studies/usshalegas/pdf/usshaleplays.pdf)

    Elk Hills Field Occidental Wells Initial Production (BOE) grouped by Year of First Production, 2007 through June 2013
    1200
    Average Well Since 2007 Directional = 108 BOE/day Vertical = 96 BOE/day Directional Wells Vertical Wells

    1000

    Initial Production (BOE/day)

    800

    Elk Hills shale vertical well IP (INTEK)

    600
    Horizontal well IP (INTEK)

    400
    Vertical well IP (INTEK)

    200

    0 2007 2008 20092010 2011 2012 2013

    Hughes GSR Inc, 2013

    (data from Drillinginfo, current through June 2013)

    Elk Hills Field Occidental Wells Initial Oil Production grouped by Year of First Production, 2007 through June 2013
    1200
    Average Well Since 2007 Directional = 46 bbls/day Vertical = 46 bbls/day Directional Wells Vertical Wells

    Initial Oil Production (bbls/day)

    1000

    800

    Elk Hills shale vertical well IP (INTEK)

    600
    Horizontal well IP (INTEK)

    400
    Vertical well IP (INTEK)

    200

    0 2007 2008 20092010 2011 2012 2013

    Hughes GSR Inc, 2013

    (data from Drillinginfo, current through June 2013)

    Seismic Anomaly Defining the Rose and North Shafter Fields

    Rose Field

    North Shafter Field

    2 miles

    Hughes GSR Inc, 2013

    (Grau et al., 2003, http://www.searchanddiscovery.com/documents/2003/grau/index.htm)

    North Shafter and Rose Fields - Oil Production and Number of Producing Wells, 1990 through June 2013
    6 100

    Oil Production (thousand barrels per day)

    Peak 2002
    5

    90 80

    Number of Producing Wells

    70
    60

    50 40

    30

    Oil Production Number of Producing Wells

    20 10 0

    0 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

    Year
    Hughes GSR Inc, 2013 (three month trailing moving average; data from Drillinginfo, September 2013)

    Distribution of Wells by Status in the Rose and North Shafter Fields as of mid-2013

    Rose Field

    North Shafter Field

    Hughes GSR Inc, 2013

    (California Division of Oil, Gas & Geothermal Resources (DOGGR), October 2013)

    View of Central Part of North Shafter Field Illustrating Well Footprint as of mid-2013

    R.A. Shafter-1 Discovery Well

    1 mile
    Hughes GSR Inc, 2013 (California Division of Oil, Gas & Geothermal Resources (DOGGR), October 2013)

    Rose & North Shafter Fields Initial Production (BOE) grouped by Year of First Production, 1980 through June 2013
    1000 900
    Average Well 2005-2013 Directional = 157 BOE/d Vertical = 94 BOE/d Directional Wells Vertical Wells

    Initial Production (BOE/day)

    800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0

    Elk Hills shale vertical well IP (INTEK)

    Horizontal well IP (INTEK)

    Vertical well IP (INTEK)

    19831999
    Hughes GSR Inc, 2013

    2000

    2001

    20022003

    20042010

    2011

    2012

    2013

    (data from Drillinginfo, September 2013)

    Rose & North Shafter Fields Cumulative Oil Production grouped by Year of First Production, 1980 through June 2013
    700

    Cumulative Oil Production (Kbbl)

    600 500 400 300 200 100 0

    Average Well > 10 years old Directional = 197 Kbbls Vertical = 180 Kbbls

    Directional Wells

    Vertical Wells

    EIA/INTEK projection is that Monterey wells will produce 550 Kbbls on average

    19831999
    Hughes GSR Inc, 2013

    2000

    2001

    20022003

    20042010

    2011

    2012

    2013

    (data from Drillinginfo, September 2013)

    San Joaquin Basin (All Monterey Wells) Initial Production (BOE) grouped by Year of First Production, 1980 through June 2013
    1200
    Average Well Since 2000 Directional = 169 BOE/day Vertical = 116 BOE/day Directional Wells Vertical Wells

    Initial Production (BOE/day)

    1000

    800

    Elk Hills shale vertical well IP (INTEK)

    600
    Horizontal well IP (INTEK)

    400
    Vertical well IP (INTEK)

    200

    0 19801984
    Hughes GSR Inc, 2013

    19851989

    19901994

    19951999

    20002004

    20052009

    20102011

    20122013

    (data from Drillinginfo, current through May 2013)

    San Joaquin Basin (All Monterey Wells) Cumulative Oil Production grouped by Year of First Production, 1980 through June 2013
    700

    Cumulative Oil Production (Kbbl)

    600 500 400 300 200 100 0 19801984

    Average Well > 10 years old Directional = 97 Kbbls Vertical = 127 Kbbls

    Directional Wells

    Vertical Wells

    EIA/INTEK projection is that Monterey wells will produce 550 Kbbls on average

    19851989

    19901994

    19951999

    20002004

    20052009

    20102011

    20122013

    Hughes GSR Inc, 2013

    (data from Drillinginfo, current through May 2013)

    Santa Maria Basin (Onshore Monterey Wells) Initial Production (BOE) grouped by Year of First Production, 1980 through June 2013
    1200
    Average Well Since 2000 Directional = 116 BOE/day Vertical = 28 BOE/day Directional Wells Vertical Wells

    Initial Production (BOE/day)

    1000
    Elk Hills shale vertical well IP (INTEK)

    800

    600
    Horizontal well IP (INTEK)

    400
    Vertical well IP (INTEK)

    200

    0 1980 1981 19821983 1984 19851987 19881989 19901999 2000- 20112010 2013

    Hughes GSR Inc, 2013

    (data from Drillinginfo, current through May 2013)

    Santa Maria Basin (Onshore Monterey Wells) Cumulative Oil Production by Year of First Production, 1980 through June 2013
    800

    Cumulative Oil Production (Kbbl)

    700 600 500 400 300 200

    Average Well > 10 years old Directional = 141 Kbbls Vertical = 67 Kbbls

    Directional Wells

    Vertical Wells

    EIA/INTEK projection is that Monterey wells will produce 550 Kbbls on average

    100
    0 1980 1981 19821983 1984 19851987 19881989 19901999 20002010 20112013

    Hughes GSR Inc, 2013

    (data from Drillinginfo, current through May 2013)

    Scenarios of Increases in Oil Production from the Monterey Shale in the USC study, 2015-2013
    Increase in California Oil Production from Monterey Tight Oil (mbd) Scenario Decline Curve Analysis (1) Decline Curve Analysis (2) Modified Decline Curve Analysis (1) Modified Decline Curve Analysis (2) Incremental Advanced-Technology Oil Production Average of all scenarios Average of highest and lowest scenarios 2015 0.16 0.15 0.15 0.077 0.13 0.1334 0.14 2020 1.1 1.1 0.69 0.58 0.18 0.73 0.64 2025 1.6 2.4 0.67 1.2 0.17 1.208 1.285 2030 1.6 3.3 0.42 1.7 0.15 1.434 1.725

    Depending on assumptions, Monterey production is forecast by the USC study to grow by between 0.18 and 1.1 million barrels per day by 2020.

    Hughes GSR Inc, 2013

    (USC study, March 2013, http://gen.usc.edu/assets/001/84955.pdf)

    USC Economic Study Assumptions of Growth in Monterey Tight Oil Production, 2013-2030
    4500

    Total California Oil Production (Kbbls/day)

    4000

    7 times current California production


    Existing Production with Flat Projection USC Study Decline Curve Analysis 1 USC Study Decline Curve Analysis 2 USC Study Modified Decline Curve Analysis 1 USC Study Modified Decline Curve Analysis 2 Incremental Advanced-Technology Oil Production Average of all scenarios

    3500
    3000 2500 2000

    History 1500 1000 500 0 1981

    Forecast

    1986

    1991

    1996

    2001

    2006

    2011

    2016

    2021

    2026

    Year
    Hughes GSR Inc, 2013 (Based on scenarios in USC study, March 2013, http://gen.usc.edu/assets/001/84955.pdf)

    USC Economic Study Estimates of the Number of Wells Required for Monterey Tight Oil Production Growth

    The high case would see production grow seven-fold through 2030, and the average of all scenarios would see California production more than double by 2020.

    Hughes GSR Inc, 2013

    (USC study, March 2013, http://gen.usc.edu/assets/001/84955.pdf)

    Reference Well Production Used by USC Economic Study to Estimate Monterey Tight Oil Production, 1984 through February 2013
    120

    Oil Production (barrels per day)

    100

    USC Type Well RA-1 USC Type Well 3-1

    RA-1 Well: 8.1 bbls/day 125,533 bbls cumulative

    80

    60

    3-1 Well: 0.5 bbls/day 74,482 bbls cumulative

    40

    20

    0 1984
    Hughes GSR Inc, 2013

    1987

    1990

    1993

    1996

    1999

    2002

    2005

    2008

    2011

    Year
    (data from Drillinginfo, August 2013)

    Actual Number of Wells Required to Meet USC 2030 Oil Production Estimates
    USC 2030 Monterey Production (million barrels per day) 1.6 3.3 0.42 1.7 USC Oil Recovery through 2030 (billion barrels) 6.89 10.20 3.14 5.21

    USC Scenario Decline Curve Analysis 1 Decline Curve Analysis 2 Modified Decline Curve Analysis 1 Modified Decline Curve Analysis 2

    USC Reference Well 3-1 RA-1 3-1 RA-1

    USC Number of Wells 4,112 4,112 4,112 4,112

    Actual Number of Wells Required to Meet USC Forecast with USC Reference Well 117,269 232,562 49,119 119,532

    The highest oil production scenario would see the recovery of some 10.2 billion barrels by 2030, or 66 percent of the purported 15.4 billion barrels of technically recoverable Monterey tight oil resources in the EIA/INTEK report.

    Hughes GSR Inc, 2013

    (USC study, March 2013, http://gen.usc.edu/assets/001/84955.pdf)

    Figures from Drilling California: A Reality Check on the Monterey Shale by J. David Hughes (2013).

    Read the whole report at montereyoil.org

    All material copyright 2013 by J. David Hughes unless otherwise indicated. For reprint requests and other inquiries, please contact Post Carbon Institute at postcarbon.org

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