Politics Arts & Entertainment Identities Sections LOGIN SIGN UP Like & Follow PolicyMic

Like 47k Follow 16.1K follow ers

Sign Up for Our Newsletter

Enter Email Address

You are subscribed to our newsletter! Please check your inbox to confirm. Search
What are you looking for?

Users Politics Iran

Iran Elections 2013: Is the Regime Beginning to Collapse Under Its Own Weight?
By Firouz Mahvi May 26, 2013 8 Comments | 114 Shares 4

Iran Elections 2013: Is the Regime Beginning to Collapse Under Its Own Weight? Image Credit: Foundation of Holy Defence Values, Archives and Publications

The Iranian resistance is set to reiterate its demands for democratic change and a non-nuclear Iran in an upcoming grand gathering in Paris on June 22. The event will echo the Iranian people's slogan seen in graffiti and signs throughout Iran stating "my vote is for the overthrow" of the regime. This will coincide with Iran's presidential election masquerade. The internal divisions and infighting within the ruling circles of the Iranian regime has reached unprecedented levels just weeks before the upcoming presidential elections. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has moved against political rivals Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani and Esfandiar Rahim Mashaei, disqualifying them from standing in the upcoming elections. The move represents a decisive split in the ruling establishment of the regime, and heightens tensions between rival camps, leaving the potential for volatile consequences in the wake of this purge. Regardless of the outcome of the elections, this move represents an undeniable blow to the power base of the regime, and an encouraging sign for those fighting to overthrow the ruling theocracy. Jacques Mallet du Panonce famously stated "the Revolution devours its children." But in this case, Rafsanjani who was famously nicknamed "the pillar of the system" and once revered as a stalwart of the founder of this regime, Ayatollah Khomeini, was a key player in securing Ali Khamenei's position as the Supreme Leader, now finds himself being pushed out of the regime he helped create. Rafsanjani was appointed as chair of the Expediency Council by Khamenei himself, and as a member of the Assembly of Experts has a direct say as to fitness of the Supreme Leader; yet the regime has devolved to a point in which it is unable to respect its own structures and power sharing arrangements. Historically, the ruling establishment within the regime has been able to settle internal disputes rather quietly amongst its key players. The fact that Khamenei has been unable to prevent Ahmadinejad's camp from putting forth Mashaei as a candidate, despite the fact that Ahmadinejad's entire political career was formulated by Khamenei, shows just how weakened the Supreme Leader has become. As a result of this desperate state, Khamenei was forced to disqualify both Rafsanjani and Mashaei through the Council of Guardians, creating an embarrassing public spectacle and delegitimizing the regime as a whole. The reality is that the regime's rank and file are no longer a homogeneous entity, and since the discord and chaos of the 2009 elections, many of them have lost faith in Khamenei's judgment as the unquestioned leader of Iran. Faced with the current dilemma, Khamenei was forced to "pick his poison" in deciding whether to share power with Rafsanjani and thus accept growing opposition within the regime and risk being seen as weak, or making a surgery and purge and risking the threat of radicalizing the opposition. Both present very serious challenges to his survival. The showdown may amount to political suicide for him, but more importantly may mark the beginning of the disintegration of the Iranian regime as a whole. Similar infighting in 2009 resulted in candidates openly exposing each other's crimes, and harshly condemning the past and present failures of the leadership, a spectacle which opened up a crucial window in which 30 years of grievances were aired by the public. The split in the leadership was utilized by the populations to voice their discontent with the regime as a whole, with the chants of "down with the Supreme Leader" becoming a rallying cry. The once sacred post of the Supreme Leader has yet to recover from the de-legitimization of 2009, and Khamenei has continued to lose confidence by those desperate to keep the regime alive. The present situation has once again validated the opinion of the people that elections in Iran are a meaningless farce, and that the overthrow of the regime remains the only viable alternative. The most organized Iranian opposition movement, i.e. the National Council of Resistance of Iran under the leadership of Maryam Rajavi and the PMOI, have always focused on a regime change. The wishful thinking of Western governments and their failed policy of engagement with the mullahs with a hope of moderation have only extended the life of this regime. This resistance, who for years has highlighted the regime's incapacity for reform and has remained steadfast in its demands for a democratic secular republic in Iran, is the only option for a free and stable Iran. Like us on Facebook:
Like 47,589 people like this.

Firouz Mahvi Bsc in Applied Mathematics from University of Wales. Dedicated to a Free Iran and has been active mainly on EU Affairs. Facebook: http://facebook.com/firouz.mahvi
YOU MIGHT BE INTERESTED IN

Politics

Iran Nuclear Program Actually Up For Discussion Now

By Amir Salehzadeh

Politics

Who Really Holds the Power in Iran?

By Brian Principato

Politics

What the Azerbaijan Elections Mean For Ethnic Tensions in Iran

By Usman Butt

Politics

The Obama-Rouhani Phone Call Made Most People Happy, Except For These U.S. Allies
By Amir Salehzadeh

13 Comments Politics

Talks on Iran's Nuclear Weapons Could Set Off a Dangerous Chain Reaction in Tehran
By Allen Tasslimi

13 Comments Politics

3 Pairs Of Pants That Prove Netanyahu Doesn't Understand Iran

By Usman Butt

Politics

American Diplomacy with Iran is Good for Israel

By Lindsay Funk

Politics

The U.S. Was Supposed to Protect These Iranians. Instead, Dozens Were Brutally Massacred And No One Even Noticed
By Hamid Yazdan Panah
JOIN THE DISCUSSION
Ne w Re sponse

Login to Comment Be the first to comment

Top Re sponse s () All Re sponse s (8)

Russ Cane 6 months ago I don't follow the situation in Iran as closely as I would like to but from the outside it looks like a tragedy, wrapped in irony, surronded by pathos. Thatcher famously said "The problem with Socialism is you eventually run out of other people's money" but I would say that quip is equally true of every non-democratic regime. Those in power hunger for more of it and the only way to satify them is to grow the economy faster than their expanding appetite. If the economy is limited, as it has been thanks to sanctions, those in power will eventually fight among themselves for the shrinking pool of resources. If the people of Iran are lucky enough, there will soon be a moment of opportunity to take a different path than the country has been on. Respond

Share Link 1

Joseph Sarkisian 6 months ago I feel like you're leaving the real power base in the country out of the equation. The IRGC, while it remains committed to the Revolution, will remain the most powerful bloc in the country. The only reason the Ayatollah maintains power is because they allow it. They've shown their discontent with him in the past, and he is powerless to fight against their will if it changes against him. But, the IRGC loses a lot if the resistance gains strength, and on this they find common ground with the Ayatollah. Security apparatuses are what keep upheaval down in a country like Iran, and they remain powerful. The Basij was a main reason the Green party failed in 2009, proving many still side with the regime. It's just not so cut and dry... Respond Share Link

1 Replies + Expand 0

Douglas Goodman 6 months ago Firouz, I interpreted this move by Khamenei as an attempt to strengthen his grasp so as not to face further embarrassments. However, I do see your point. What do you see happening after the election? Do you think NCRI and PMOI will resort to armed resistance and try to topple the regime through force? If so, how do you see that playing out? Would they try to draw the U.S. and Israel into the fight? Respond Share Link

4 Replies + Expand Show All Responses Politics

Politics

Identities

Politician Opens Up About Her Abortion Shuts Obama's Approval Rating Would Surge If Down Republicans Who Think They Can Speak Americans Knew These 5 Facts For Women
By Abram Conrad By Elizabeth Plank

James Deen Makes Me Want to Have Sex O the Internet

By Andrea Garcia-Vargas

Company

About Us Our Team Write for Policymic Jobs

Platform

115 Comments | Politics 746 Arts Shares & Entertainment

33 Comments | 15 Shares

12 Comments | 123 Shares

Identities
Newsletter Enter Email Address

You are subscribed to our newsletter! Please check your inbox to confirm.
Follow Us

Copyright Mic Network Inc. All rights reserved 35 West 36th St. 9th Floor West, New York, NY 10018 Politics Arts & Entertainment Identities

Top Politics Stories

Politics

Blockbuster's Shocking Revelation: It Still Has Stores Left to Close

By Nina Ippolito

Politics

Bill de Blasio Could Make New York the Best City in the World Here's How
By Charles Lorum

Politics

Read the Letter to Madonna That Puts Celebrity Ego Trips to Africa in Their Place
By Katherine Sullivan

Politics

Man Starts Crowdsourced Campaign to Hunt Down Kony Himself What Could Go Wrong?
By Mike Mulraney

Top Arts & Entertainment Stories

12 Comments Arts & Entertainment

5 Artists Changing Everything You Know About Country Music

By Arne Phillips

13 Comments Arts & Entertainment

9 Things You're Guaranteed to Hear in a Bro-Country Song

By Elena Sheppard

Arts & Entertainment

Why 'Blue Is The Warmest Color' Fails At Showing Lesbian Love

By Michelle Juergen

Arts & Entertainment

7 Celebrities That Should Do No-Shave November

By Daniel Lefferts

Top Identities Stories

5 Comments Identities

Students Can't Fix College Sexual Assault

By Carmen Rios

Identities

The Commonsense Reason Millennials Aren't Buying Into Obamacare

By Claire Rychlewski

Identities

The Old Spice Mantastic Man's Dirty Trick

By Mrinalini Shinde

Identities

Women's Magazine Breaks the Number One Rule of Women's Magazines

By Faith Milligan