Project of the Republic of Kazakhstan and UNDP Kazakhstan Wind Power Market Development Initiative

Astana Wind Farm Pre-feasibility Study

Prepared by UNDP Kazakhstan Wind Power Market Development Initiative

Site Location : Wind Potential : Wind Farm Power : Net Annual Power Production :

Astana, Republic of Kazakhstan (5108'33.7" n.l., 7119'30.4 e.l.) 6,54 m/s 41 MW 115 627 MW*h

Shevchenko str.162 J, Wind Power Project Office Tel: +7 (727) 298 22 67, Fax: +7 (727) 298 22 66

TABLE OF CONTENTS 1. Project Description 3 2. Site Description . 3 3. Wind Potential Assessment ... 4 3.1 Wind Monitoring Equipment .. 4 3.2 Tower Data Analysis ....5 3.3 Long-term correlation ...7 4. Energy Yield Assessment .. 8 4.1 Wind Flow Model .8 4.1.1 Climate and Topographic Data 4.1.2 Turbine Selection 4.1.3 Wind Turbine Power Curve 4.1.4 Wind Farm Losses 4.2 Wind Farm Layout ..10 4.3 Summary of Energy Yield Results.. 11 5. Commercial Modeling and Assumptions . 12 6. Site Data Collection and Investigation . 15 7. Grid Connection 16 8. Transportation Study .17 9. Environmental and Social Impact Assessment .18 10. Required Permits, Approvals, Taxes and Levies ..19 11. Conclusion 19

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1. PROJECT DESCRIPTION The city of Astana is developing and expanding at a rate that is challenging for the supply of power. Existing power supplies from the coal fired power stations of Central and Northern Kazakhstan are already stretched and in the coming years additional supplies of power will be necessary. A wind farm constructed close to Astana will provide additional capacity to power further development of the city; will help to reduce the overall emissions of greenhouse gases for the power sector in Kazakhstan and will make a very visible statement about the commitment of the Government of the Republic of Kazakhstan to environmental improvement and sustainability. Astana is supplied almost entirely by coal-fired power. The inclusion of wind energy in the power supply to this city will displace almost entirely coal-fired power, having a greater environmental impact than a similar capacity of wind in another part of the country. 2. SITE DESCRIPTION The selected site lies within 5 km of the edge of the city and within sight of the new Governmental region built to the south of the old city. An area of at least 8 x 10 km is currently available for development of wind. A windfarm of 20 to 50 MW could be accommodated within this site. By moving the site further to the west, a larger are of land may be available that would allow a much larger, utilityscale windfarm to be developed. The site lies to the South of the city of Astana, 1km from the current edge of Southward sprawl of residential areas. The land was identified as suitable by the Akimat, in consultation with KazGydromet, the Meteorological Service. It lies on an area of wetland, with a reclaimed lake adjacent to the site. The site is known to have a high water table and to flood occasionally. The site consists of flat grassland with some vegetation and man-made structures such as transmission lines, single storey buildings and medium height trees within visible distance. Directly adjacent to the site and running SW-NE is a 110kV transmission cable and directly to the East, at no more than 1 km is a large substation. The site lies beside an autobahn running directly out of the city of Astana. Astanas main railway lines run roughly East to West and lie 12 km to the North. The City Airport lies 16km to the South East of the site. The flight path into and out of the airport is SW-NE and therefore not over the proposed site.

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3. WIND POTENTIAL ASSESSMENT 3.1 Wind Monitoring Equipment

The Astana monitoring tower is a 50 m tubular tower with anemometers located at heights of 51, 49 and 22 mAGL and wind vanes located at heights of 49 and 22 mAGL. Temperature was recorded at this site at heights of 22 and 5 mAGL. Pressure was recorded at a height of 4 mAGL. The image of the Astana monitoring tower is shown below.

Fig. 1-14 Photograph of the Astana monitoring tower facing south east (taken by PB staff during tower installation)

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A summary of the tower location, and instrument configuration on the Astana monitoring tower, is presented in Table 1-9 below. The instrument configuration at the Astana monitoring tower generally conforms to relevant IEA/IEC standards. Table 1-9 Sensor information for the Astana monitoring tower

3.2 Tower Data Analysis

A summary of wind data statistics for this site (including the shelter corrected wind speeds) is given in Table 1-10. Table 1-10 Wind data statistics for the Astana monitoring tower

* Note that maximum (gust), minimum and standard deviation (linked to turbulence) information is only able to be recorded for one instrument by this logger type.
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The distribution of the wind speed and the Weibull parameters at 51 m for this site are presented in the Fig. 1-17 below.

The Fig. 1-17 Wind speed distribution and Weibull parameters at 51 m for the Astana monitoring tower The above 51 m wind speed distribution and the best-fit Weibull curve shown that the wind speed distribution may be due to the 78% availability of wind speed data at this tower.

Fig.1-18 Wind direction (left) and energy distributions (right) at 51 m for the Astana monitoring tower The wind direction and energy roses, as recorded at 51 m, are presented in Fig.1-18. The direction distribution shows a wind direction pattern with the majority of winds from the south-west. The energy distribution indicates that the significant majority of the energy comes from south-westerly direction.
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The Figure 1-19 Monthly average wind speeds for the 50 m level The seasonal wind speed pattern presented in Fig. 1-19 displays a pattern of higher than average wind speeds during the winter and spring months (December to May) and lower than average wind speeds during the summer and autumn (June to November) at the site. Note that the data recovery rate was only 31% during January and 18% during March so the averages presented here for these months may not be indicative of the actual monthly average. The colder months in general had poor recovery rates compared to the warmer months, due to anemometer icing. This seasonal pattern has been calculated from only 12 months of data hence the long-term pattern may differ slightly from what is presented above.

3.3 Long-term Correlation

A correlation between NCAR (National Center for Atmospheric Research) wind data and the Astana monitoring tower data was conducted in order to determine the strength of the relationship between these two datasets, and predict a long-term wind speed for the Astana site. On shorter timescales, natural variation of wind speeds may occur between sites separated by such a distance, so to minimize this effect, and due to the fact that only six-hourly NCAR data is available, the correlation was performed using daily averages of the available data. The results of the correlation are presented in Table 1-13.

Table 1-13 Results of the correlation between the NCAR wind data and the Astana monitoring tower (both daily averaged datasets)

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The results of the correlation show a reasonably strong correlation between the on-site monitored data and the data from NCAR, implying that the NCAR data is suitable for use in the analysis. As the data availability of the on-site monitoring tower was less than 100%, the average of the daily-averaged dataset was different to the mean value of the 10-minute averaged dataset. The 10-minute average is considered more representative for this site hence the correction for this difference produced the following long-term on-site wind speed. Table 1-14 Long term on-site wind speed at the Astana site at 51.15 m

4. ENERGY YIELD ASSESSMENT 4.1 Wind Flow Model 4.1.1 Climate and Topographic Data
PB Power has undertaken, as part of this report, wind flow modeling analysis for the Astana site. The following climate and topographical input data were used in the modeling: Wind Data: Wind data from the Astana monitoring tower extrapolated to the proposed hub-height of 80m. Average Air Density: Temperature, and in some cases pressure information was recorded at the Astana monitoring tower. The density calculated for the Astana site is considered the average hub-height air density applicable to all turbine locations. The air density for Astana at hub-height is 1.197 kg/m3. Terrain Data: Digital map of terrain for the region surrounding the Astana monitoring tower location was provided by UNDP with terrain contours in 10 m intervals. As terrain roughness information was not provided, PB Power estimated the roughness of the terrain using aerial and land-based site photos. PB Power determined a roughness length value of 0.03 m, which is considered suitable for farmland with scattered vegetation.

4.1.2. Turbine Selection

PB Power believes the Vestas NM82 wind turbine is a suitable selection in providing an indicative energy yield for the Astana wind farm. The rated power of this turbine is 1650 kW, driven by a rotor of 82 m in diameter. The hub height used for the assessment is 80.

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4.1.3. Wind Turbine Power Curve

The power curve for the Vestas NM82 wind turbine used in the UNDP energy assessments has been extracted from an industry standard wind engineering software package. The power curve specified for an air density 1.197 kg/m3 is illustrated below:

Power Curve 1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 0 5 10 15 20 25 Wind Speed (m/s)
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Power Output (kW)

4.1.4 Wind Farm Losses

The energy losses noted below are subtracted progressively from the gross energy yield to arrive at the net energy yield. PB Power generally expects a certain range of losses to apply to the various inputs to the energy calculations. The table below indicates how the losses were derived (i.e. estimated/calculated and by whom). Item Wake losses Power curve degradation Turbine shutdown hysteresis WTG miscellaneous loss On-site electrical losses Long-term WTG availability loss Off-site electrical losses Grid outage loss Loss Site dependent (see Sections 2.2 to 2.9) 0.5 % Minimum impact but included in energy calculation 0.5 % 3% 3% Not included Not included Source Calculated by PB Power Opinion of PB Power Calculated by PB Power

Estimated by PB Power Estimated by PB Power Estimated by PB Power -

4.2 Wind Farm Layout

PB Power designed wind farm layout for the Astana site that provide an indicative energy yield for a 41 MW. The resultant wind farm layout consisted of 25 turbines arranged in a 5X5 grid, with inter-turbine spacing at six rotor diameters.

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Map of the Astana turbine layout and surrounding area

4.3 Summary of Energy Yield Results

Table 2-4 below presents a summary of the energy calculations performed on the Astana wind farm for the proposed layout.

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5. COMMERCIAL MODELING and ASSUMPTIONS

A rough modeling exercise with these figures shows that under these circumstances a total income per kWh paid to the generator of 10,7 KZT will produce a project IRR of about 12%, which is equivalent to returns for many windfarm projects in Europe. Cost assumptions used in the compilation of this simple model include: Item Capital Cost Value Source

1,25m/MW This price is predicted based on the internet research throughout European market for June, 2008. The installation of the equipment is included in this price. European Industry average. All costs predicted to rise evenly throughout the project by 5% per annum. This is likely to be a conservative analysis as the inflationary pressures on power prices are likely to be higher than those on operations and maintenance. It is the responsibility of the owner and operator of the windfarm to negotiation a long term power purchase agreement with clear and secure indexation. Taxation as included in the tender documents for Djungar Gates, issued by UNDP 2005.

Operations and 9/MWh Maintenance Indexation of All 5% Costs

Taxation Regime

The project is modeled to estimate the power price necessary to achieve an Internal Rate of Return on the full capital employed of 12%, equivalent to the performance of many European wind farms. At this income, and using these assumptions, the simple payback period for the wind farm will be between 9 and 10 year.

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Variable

Value

Unit

Power & Capital

Start year Design life End of project Total installed capacity Net annual power production for site Capital expenditure

2009 20
2029

Year Years Year MW MWh / year

41 115 627 51,250,000

Power Sale Price Operation & Maintenance/MWh Operation overheads Land owner royalty

Power Sale Price Operation & Maintenance/MWh Operation overheads Land owner royalty

Operational Revenues
Power Sale Price Operation & Maintenance/MWh Operation overheads Land owner royalty

Tax
Corporate Tax Property Tax Land Tax Tax Holiday (years) Indexation of Costs Corporate Tax Property Tax Land Tax Tax Holiday (years) Indexation of Costs Corporate Tax Property Tax Land Tax Tax Holiday (years) Indexation of Costs

Exchange Rates
KZT/$ KZT/ KZT/

121 185 244

Results
Project IRR

11,9%

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6. Site Data Collection and Investigation

Seismic Data Astana is not a zone of any significant seismic activity and therefore no further studies have been carried out into the effect of earthquakes on any wind turbines. Topographic Data The site selected is particularly flat with no hills in any direction for many miles. 5km to the North is the city, which continues to be under construction with medium and high-rise apartment blocks being built in the region closest to the selected site. The city will continue to expand for some time in accordance with Government policy to develop Astana as the Capital of Kazakhstan and therefore the advance of development towards the site must be considered to be a threat to the operation of a windfarm. The site is protected to some extent by the poor quality of the ground between it and the city development however we recommend that discussions are held with the City Akimat over the imposition of a buffer between any potential windfarm and the edge of permitted building. Geotechnical Report Rough data published on maps of the area state that the site is on an area of, clayey, loamy soil with occasional salt deposits. Digging to a depth of 1,5m when erecting the meteorological mast, confirmed. The land was seen to be mostly hard clay, difficult to dig.

Figure 1 - Ground Conditions Astana

A detailed geotechnical study must be commissioned at part of a detailed study before any development.

7. Grid Connection
The site lies adjacent to a large substation and a 110kV transmission line. A connection to this line will be a physical possibility but studies must be carried out on the suitability of the lone to take the variable supply from any future windfarm and from the quality of the power supplied by whatever turbines are installed.

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Figure 2 - Substation adjacent to Astana site

8. Transportation Study
Astana has a well-developed transport network with good road, rail and air links. The road network from Astana links to the North to the Russian Federation and on to the West, to the South to Almaty Oblast and from there East to China. The rail network is also well established with direct links to China, the Russian Federation and to Europe. The main rail line through the city passes within 16 km of the site and local roads link the site to many sidings that could be used for the offloading of turbines and components. In general the site may be supplied by turbines, towers and balance of plant from Europe, China and Russia without apparent difficulty. On selection of turbines a detailed survey of local transport infrastructure will be necessary.

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Figure 3 - Astana Area marked with site and airport

9. Environmental and Social Impact Assessment

It is a requirement in Kazakhstan that any project developer should consider an Environmental Impact Assessment. The developer must check the details of the legislation to see whether any proposed windfarm development is covered by the requirements. Any EIA will require an initial scoping study to identify areas of concern for further detailed analysis. The context of much of this work for the Astana site is the proximity of the city of Astana. The spread of Astana has been rapid in recent years and further development of the residential area to the South West could pose a threat to the development of a windfarm. Encroachment of buildings can affect the wind resource available to generate electricity by changing the roughness of the ground around the chosen site, increasing shear and reducing the windspeed. In addition, residential areas close to an operating windfarm are a constraint to development. Turbines positioned close to residential areas have an impact on the quality of life of those living there and care must be taken to limit this impact to an acceptable level. It is recommended that the City Akimat is consulted over the priorities for development within a reasonable buffer around this site.

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A scoping study will identify possible problems for future analysis and should include: Flora and fauna Studies of plant life and animals found living on the site must be carried out. Studies of migrating birds should be completed to identify any possible concerns for the welfare of species Turbine noise and visual impacts, including sun shadow flicker Turbine noise is a concern generally in residential areas. The sound of the tips of the blades cutting through the air causes a low-frequency sound that is perceptible up to 500m away at medium windspeeds. If the residential areas of Astana continue to encroach on the site it will be necessary to assess the impact of this noise and to agree with the Akimat an acceptable level for residents so that a minimum separation between turbines and houses can be agreed. Flicker from the shadows of the blades falling across buildings, noise from the motion of the blade tips and loss of visual amenity are all common reasons for complaint by residents in the West. Electromagnetic Interferences, Radar, radio, Television, mobile communications It is usual in cases such as this that all sources of Electromagnetic transmission near to the site are identified and studies. We judge that in this case the sources are likely to include: Air traffic control radar and radio transmissions located at the airport Military radar and transmissions Mobile telephone transmission masts located around Astana Television relay stations

10. Identification of Required Permits, Approvals, Taxes and Levies

The permits for construction of industrial facilities are regulated by the legislation of Republic of Kazakhstan. The following fundamental permits are required for the construction of wind farm: 1) Decision of local authorities to provide a land according to the governmental regulation of Kazakhstan effective 6th May, 2008, No: 425, Policy of registration and issue of raw materials for construction design 2) Permit for implementation of building and assembly jobs in compliance with 1.03-06-2002 Construction industry. Organization of construction of enterprises and buildings. Issued by the officials of state architectural inspection Other standard regulations: - Instruction about the rules of project design, confirmation, approval and contents of design estimates for the construction of buildings (State Standard 2.2-1-2001) - HSE in construction (State Standard 1.03-05-2001) - System of providing the precision of geometric parameters in construction. Instructions for performing measurements. (State Standard 26433.0-85)

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11. Conclusion
The site selected at Astana is suitable for the development of a windfarm. The windspeeds are suitable for the operation of turbines, the access routes are clear and present few difficulties, a grid connection for the dispatch of power is readily available and the site presents few difficulties for the construction of a windfarm. As with any windfarm in Kazakhstan the price to be paid for power to the generator must be sufficient for the financing of such a project and be secure for the long term. In addition some doubts exist over the site because of the pressure on the land from the continued development of the city of Astana. An understanding must be reached with the city authorities about a buffer between any wind generation project and the limit of development of the city in that direction. While this site is appropriate for the development of wind generation, the flat topography means that some other sites around Astana will be equally appropriate. It would be better to confirm selection of site for the wind farm location with the Astana authorities.

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