SPACE TOURISM 3

Table of Contents
Content Page
Abstract .......................................................................5
Introduction .......................................................................6
Market Evaluation .......................................................................7
National Demographics ...........................................................7
Price Point ...........................................................7
Launch Vehicles ....................................................................9
Vertical Rockets ...........................................................9
Spaceplanes ..........................................................10
Government Factors ...................................................................13
Launch Regulation ..........................................................13
Government Support ..........................................................14
Trade Regulation ..........................................................15
Conclusion ...................................................................16
ReIerences ......................................................................18
SPACE TOURISM 4
List of Tables and Figures
Content Page
Figure 1: Age Distribution ...........................................................7
Figure 2: Ticket Price versus Annual Turnover ......................................8
Figure 3: Activities in Space ..........................................................11
Figure 4: Length oI Trips ..........................................................12
SPACE TOURISM 5
Abstract
Space tourism has been a dream oI many Ior an extremely long time. However, it has
oIten been regarded as just a pipe dream that is unIruitIul and a waste oI time. This report shows
the demand oI space tourism and the beneIits oI having a space tourism sector in the economy,
showing upwards oI $60 billion in market turnover per year. Addressing the Ieasibility oI space
tourism as well as the beneIits, launch vehicle technology is summarized along with analysis
considering crew capacity, reusability, and overall cost oI launch to demonstrate that the
possibility oI space tourism is much more realistic than expected. Traditional vertical rockets are
proven to be extremely ineIIicient compared to the spaceplane vehicle, costing more per launch,
having less launches per year, and having a lower crew capacity. Government interIerence is also
addressed, using the United States Government as model. II space tourism is to succeed, a
government cannot be limiting development, and this report proposes small changes to the
current system to insure that this is not the case. The FAA needs to change their policy on
licensing spacecraIt to be more like that oI licensing aircraIt, otherwise the FAA will become the
limiting Iactor in space tourism because oI the increased workload. AIter all oI these individual
conclusions are justiIied, overall recommendations are included. Changing the Iocus oI launch
vehicles Irom vertical takeoII rockets to spaceplanes, modiIying the FAA licensing system, and
keeping trade oI space technologies open by reclassiIying certain space objects are some oI the
recommendations proposed that will expedite space exploration and set a Ioundation Ior a
Iormidable space tourism market in the upcoming decades.
SPACE TOURISM 6
Introduction
Humans have always had the deep seeded desire to explore. From Mt. Everest to the
Marina Trench humans have always had a desire to know the unknown. This exploratory instinct
took a whole new shape in the 1960s when Ehricke and Hilton published the idea oI space travel
Ior no other reason than having Iun. Ever since the concept oI space tourism was conceived, it
has been viewed as the ultimate test oI human ingenuity and perseverance. With the new boom in
the space industry, space tourism may soon become a reality.
This report will evaluate the possibility oI space tourism being a viable industry in the
near Iuture and how it will be achieved. Space tourism could drastically shape may nations
economies and the average liIe oI many citizens. Space tourism will also serve as a stimulus to
bring attention back to space and space exploration, creating a greater interest in the space
industry, giving the space industry a boost oI support and advancements. This report will judge
the likelihood oI space tourism becoming an industry that will be proliIic in society based on iI
there is a signiIicant market demand, the ability to provide cheap and saIe passage to space, and
the stimulus or hindrance provided by the United States Government.
SPACE TOURISM 7
Market Evaluation
In order to Ior space tourism to become a Iormidable industry, people must want to go to
space. Sven Abitzsch, renown author oI multiple papers regarding space passage, has presented
many surveys in his 1996 paper Prospects of Space Tourism regarding the desire oI private
citizens to go into space. His results show that the desire to go to space is one shared by an
extremely large portion oI the human population. As seen in Figure 1, when the question oI
private space travel was presented, the desire to experience space was not central to a speciIic
age or culture, but rather a collective dream.
Figure 1. Age Distribution
Taken from.
http.//www.spacefuture.com/archive/prospectsofspacetourism.shtml
In 1992, the company Society Expeditions proposed an initiative entitled Project Space
Voyage and oIIered customers a ticket to space Ior $50 thousand and promised industry 1 million
customers per year. UnIortunately, Society Expeditions Iilled bankruptcy in 2004, never IulIilling
this oIIer. The reproduction oI this ticket price is vital because, according to Abitzsch's analysis,
a ticket price oI $50 thousand provides optimal market volume, as shown by Figure 2, with a
potential oI generating income oI $60 billion per year. This revenue will be extremely beneIicial
SPACE TOURISM 8
to the global economy, creating jobs and making research in space exploration more appealing to
private industry.
Figure 2. Ticket Price versus Annual Turnover
Taken from.
http.//www.spacefuture.com/archive/prospectsofspacetourism.shtml
Figure 2 also shows that revenue Irom space tourism takes a signiIicant hit iI ticket prices cost
over $100 thousand, and that is the challenge Iaced today. Abitzsch believes that space tourism
will undergo a series oI steps beIore space tourism becomes a common occurrence. His steps are
taking longer than expected, but the process still is sound and is as Iollows:
First, day trips in a space tour vehicle will be oIIered at high prices, |SIC| this will Iound
an exclusive market Ior higher income people and in addition, enables early and high
proportions oI revenues through skimming pricing. AIter approximately Iive years oI
operation, cost degression will grant substantial price cuts, so that a greater portion oI
people could take a space trip, this would be the executive phase. Some studies support
SPACE TOURISM 9
this assumption oI high cost degression during the Iirst years (6, 7). AIter an additional
period oI 5 to 10 years, the "mass market" will show up with low leveled prices and the
highest turnover (Abitzsch, 1996).
Abitzsch's Iindings ultimately show that there is a high demand Ior space tourism, so long as the
price is in an optimal range. The next step to making space tourism a reality is Iinding a way to
get the tourists to space cheaply and saIely, a step that is being actively worked on and starting to
produce substantial results, as expanded upon in the next section.
Launch Vehicles
In order to achieve these predicted proIits a cheap launch vehicle must be created. NASA
is placing its bets on the traditional, vertical rocket method. As discussed in the journal Science
and Children, aIter decommissioning the space shuttle, NASA has adopted the new business plan
oI paying private companies to transport its astronauts to space. Boeing and Bigelow Aerospace
oI Las Vegas have been awarded an $18 million contract Irom NASA Ior development oI a 7
passenger capsule (Space tourism, 2010). This type oI capsule will need to be transported via
vertical rocket, and currently the leader oI the private launch vehicle industry is Space
Exploration Technology, better known as SpaceX.
SpaceX is currently designing possibly one oI the cheapest vertical rockets, dubbed the
Falcon Heavy. According to SpaceX's released data, the Falcon Heavy can liIt over twice the
payload oI the old space shuttles and also meets all oI NASA's saIety standards and is approved
Ior human transportation, boasting triple redundant avionics to prevent Iailures. However, the
high cost oI launch in addition to the long turnover time seems to indicate the Falcon Heavy may
SPACE TOURISM 10
be suitable Ior government contracts, but not Ior a booming space tourism industry. SpaceX is
putting an initial price tag oI $83 million per launch, and with the NASA sponsored capsule only
being able to hold 7 passengers it makes each ticket over $11 million. This is nowhere close to
the necessary $50 thousand ideal ticket price Ior a sustainable market. In addition, SpaceX is
only expecting the Falcon Heavy to be capable oI 16 Ilights per year, not nearly enough volume
to make the Falcon Heavy a promote contributor oI the space tourism market (SpaceX, 2011).
Because oI this the Falcon Heavy, and all vertical rockets like it, are inherently not suitable Ior
space tourism. A vehicle that can hold more passengers, have lower Ilight costs, and have quicker
turnover times must be utilized Ior a proIitable space tourism industry.
The Iield oI development the government should be putting their resources to instead is
that oI the spaceplane. A spaceplane is a horizontal takeoII, horizontal landing craIt that operates
just like a normal airplane but is able to bring crew and cargo into Low Earth Orbit. Based on the
surveys provided by Abitzsch, he limitation oI spaceplanes to the domain oI Low Earth Orbit is
not a problem at all. As shown in Figure 3, a majority oI space tourists are primarily interested in
simply looking at Earth or doing a space walk, activities that can be done Irom Low Earth Orbit.
SPACE TOURISM 11
Figure 3. Activities in Space
Taken from.
http.//www.spacefuture.com/archive/prospectsofspacetourism.shtml
A key innovator in the spaceplane industry is Reaction Engines, the company responsible Ior the
SABRE engine. As listed in press releases by Reaction Engines, the SABRE engine works like a
jet plane in the atmosphere, taking in oxygen and using on-board Iuel to provide thrust. The
innovation comes in when the spaceplane leaves the atmosphere; SABRE uses the same engine
but switches Irom in-taking oxygen to using liquid oxygen stored on the craIt. These engines are
more than capable oI entering orbit, proclaiming to be able to reach speeds 25 times the speed oI
sound.
Reaction Engines also boast re-usability as a huge Ieature oI their Iuture craIt. They claim
that their SABRE engine 'need|s| an operational liIe oI only 55 hours to achieve 200 Ilights,
signiIicantly less than the 10,000s oI hours needed Ior conventional jet engines (Reaction,
2013). This liIespan means that once developed, maintenance on a spaceplane may actually be
cheaper than maintenance on current jet planes. This will ultimately lead to lower costs, and
SPACE TOURISM 12
thereIore lower ticket prices, helping the space tourism industry take oII with the momentum it
needs. Reaction Engines has also stated that their proposed launch vehicle will be able to hold
approximately 30 passengers, a huge increase compared to the 7 NASA is currently Iunding
Boeing and Bigelow to design (Reaction Engines).
The spaceplane also oIIers signiIicantly cheaper tickets and dramatically reduced down
time between launches. Talis Enterprise reports that the expected cost per ticket will be in the
range oI $30 to $50 thousand (Messier, 2009). II these prices are reached, they will give the
space tourism industry core Ioundation it needs. As previously stated, $50 thousand tickets will
provide optimal revenue Ior companies, allowing Iurther investments to be made Ior cheaper
Ilights. It is vital that development continues even aIter this $50 thousand ticket price is reached
not only to lower costs and thereIore increase volume, but also to develop new spaceplanes that
can sustain the 2 to 7 day long trips the consumers want, as shown by Figure 4, to increase
market proIitability.
Figure 4. Length of Trips
Taken from.
http://www.spaceIuture.com/archive/prospectsoIspacetourism.shtml
SPACE TOURISM 13
According to Virgin Galactic's maniIest, their spaceplane trips will bring passengers to an
altitude oI 110 kilometers. Although this is technically in space, the vehicle will not be able to
achieve the speed necessary to sustain orbit, only providing passengers about 5 minutes oI
weightlessness (Messier). For companies to remain on the cutting edge oI space travel, the
challenge will shiIt Irom getting into space to staying there. II space tourism is to become a
viable industry constant research and experimentation will need to be conducted to Iind cheaper
and more eIIicient ways to get to space, providing customers with the ability to take trips
spanning multiple days. The technology to get to Low Earth Orbit already exists, the next stage
in development will need to be Iocused on perIecting and implementing current designs.
Government Factors
Regardless oI how humans are getting to space, the government is going to be a Iactor
that has to be considered. One oI the primary objectives oI the United States government is to
ensure its citizens are saIe, and that requires the government to keep a close eye on space
activities. The duty oI ensuring the saIety oI space actives has mainly Iallen on the shoulders oI
the Federal Aviation Administration. As stated by the U.S. Government Accountability OIIice in
their report to lawmakers on space tourism, the FAA is in charge oI licensing all commercial
launches in the United States, and also licenses all Ioreign launches that are operated by U.S.
citizens. When the FAA issues a license they do not certiIy the launch vehicle as saIe, instead
they issue periodical inspections and keep a close watch on all proceedings to insure the launch
meets all FAA standards (U.S. Government, 2012). While this model provides a good measure oI
saIety, the process currently does not provide much room Ior expansion oI the industry.
SPACE TOURISM 14
The amount oI paperwork the FAA must siIt through Ior each launch is extremely high,
and iI the space tourism industry expands as some experts predict, the FAA will either have to
change their process or massively expand their staIIing base. As stated by the FAA's own
regulations, beIore issuing a license the launch company must demonstrate their saIety systems,
addressing all possible hazards and risks that are created by the launch, along with a set oI
standard operating procedures Ior each oI these. In addition to needing personal to read over
every saIety system proposal, the FAA also requires FAA aerospace engineers to be on-site to
monitor every launch and make sure the licensee complies to FAA standards (U.S. GAO). While
this system works now, it will be one oI the FAA's biggest problems iI space tourism peeks.
Currently SpaceX states its Falcon Heavy will be able to complete 16 launches per year.
However, XCOR is promising 30 minute trips to space with a vehicle that can be immediately
reIueled and ready Ior another launch. This will create strain the FAA is not prepared to handle,
virtually having to hire oIIicials just to watch over individual vehicles.
Although the FAA provides strict regulation on space launches, the government also
plays a huge role in stimulating the space industry. The FAA is also tasked with promoting the
space industry. According to the Government Accountability Organization, the agency does so by
'sponsoring an annual industry Iorecast conIerence, publishing industry studies, and conducting
outreach to potential launch companies along with 'consulting with industry through its
advisory committee. In addition, the FAA also provides monetary beneIits Ior space companies,
once issuing a 200 thousand dollar incentive Ior a launch company to provide an environmental
impact study Ior their launch site. The Department oI DeIense, the United States Air Force, and
SPACE TOURISM 15
NASA also aid in the development oI commercial space companies. The DOD provides
'guidance and saIety oversight Ior launches at Iederal launch sites, and the Air Force provides
'inIrastructure and operations support the government's primary commercial launch sites, Cape
Canaveral and Vandenberg Air Force Base. NASA also provides additional inIrastructure and
telecommunication devices Irom their Virginia launch site, along with 'encouraging private
sector investment in space industries.
However, all oI this monetary support Irom the government also comes with a Iair share
oI commerce regulation at the hands oI the Department oI State. The Department oI State must
aIIirm that domestic space aIIairs support the United States' Ioreign policies and do not conIlict
with international commitments. Due to an incident in the 1990s where U.S. space technology
led to the improvement oI ballistic missiles that could be used against the United States, the
Department oI State has classiIied launch vehicles as munitions and thereIore strictly regulates
the export oI space technology. Some experts say this lack oI trade is stiIling the industry, and
some relaxation has started to take place with the classiIication oI satellites and other space
objects, so one can speculate it may not be long Ior launch vehicle regulation to be relaxed as
well (U.S. GAO). Trade oI technology will greatly expedite the progress oI the space industry,
and the Department oI State must consider the beneIits oI international cooperation and how it
beneIits the species as a whole to share knowledge oI space travel. In addition to cooperation in
the development oI Iuture technologies, sharing knowledge will also prevent the likelihood oI
mistakes being repeated, costing not only thousands oI dollars, but possibly human liIe as well.
SPACE TOURISM 16
Conclusion
II Abitzsch's predictions come true, there will be a large quantity oI space tourists in the
next 6 to 7 years. However, due to the industry Iixation on vertical rocket designs, that date may
be pushed back Iurther than Abitzsch predicted due to high launch costs. In order Ior the space
tourism industry to be successIul in the upcoming decade, NASA must redirect it's Iunds Irom
capsules to airships. The large advancements in the spaceplane sector indicate that, with time,
these industries will be able to provide proIitable space tourism. However, because oI NASA's
capsule Iixation and thus the little support given to companies such as Virgin Galactic, Talis
Enterprise, and XCOR, the Iuture oI the space industry is at risk. II these companies cannot
secure contracts to continue the development oI spaceplanes, the goal oI private space tourism
may never be reached. However, iI these companies are able to gain enough customers in the
next Iew years, they may be able to develop cheaper alternatives and broaden their own market
base without the help oI a government agency.
In addition to government monetary support, the space industry also needs support Irom
government regulations. The FAA must adopt a new policies in regulating spacecraIt, such as
what is used in the airplane sector. In order to conserve resources and limit detrimental
interIerence, the FAA should regulate craIt on a two part basis. First, evaluate a craIt design, and,
iI the saIety standards are met, certiIy the design in a universal database. Secondly, evaluate a
companies ability to saIely preIorm launches, and iI the saIety standards are met, allow it launch
all certiIied craIt that it can demonstrate the ability to saIely launch. Not only will this allow the
ability Ior more Ilights because the launch companies do not have to coordinate every launch
with the FAA, but also allows Ior the development oI commercial space-tourism companies
SPACE TOURISM 17
oIIering Ilights on many diIIerent craIts Irom multiple manuIactures, much like modern airlines.
However, even iI the above recommendations all are implemented and work Ior the space
industry, space tourism still may take longer than Abitzsch predicted. Using simple extrapolation
oI Abitzsch's predictions, it can be deduced that the space industry is developing at a third oI the
rate Abitzsch predicted. By the year 2010 the Iirst phase, high cost operation catering to a small
market, has been achieved. ThereIore, by extension oI this slowed growth rate, it can be
predicted the next phase, mass market appeal and consumption, will take place approximately 20
years aIter 2010. This indicates that there will be a proIitable, selI-sustaining space tourism
companies by the start oI 2030.
SPACE TOURISM 18
ReIerences
Abitzsch, Sven. (1996). Prospects oI space tourism. Retrieved Irom
http://www.spaceIuture.com/archive/prospectsoIspacetourism.shtml
Messier, Douglas. (2009). Space tourism.
Reaction Engines. News updates. Retrieved Irom
http://www.reactionengines.co.uk/newsupdates.html
Space tourism. (2010). Science and Children, 48(3), 12-13. Retrieved Irom
http://search.proquest.com.ezproxy.libproxy.db.erau.edu/docview/762468573?
accountid27203
Spacex. (2011). Falcon Heavy. Retrieved Irom http://www.spacex.com/Ialconheavy.php
U.S. Government Accountability OIIice (2012). Space tourism issues. Nova Science Publishers.