Soc Indic Res (2010) 96:5983 DOI 10.

1007/s11205-009-9467-0

International Migration and Human Development in Destination Countries: A Cross-National Analysis of Less-Developed Countries, 19702005
Matthew Sanderson

Accepted: 23 March 2009 / Published online: 5 April 2009 Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2009

Abstract Contemporary levels of international migration in less-developed countries are raising new and important questions regarding the consequences of immigration for human welfare and well-being. However, there is little systematic cross-national evidence of how international migration affects human development levels in migrant-receiving countries in the less-developed world. This paper addresses this gap in the literature by assessing the impact of cumulative international migration ows on the human development index, a composite measure of aggregate well-being. A series of panel models are estimated using a sample of less-developed countries for the period, 19702005. The results indicate that higher levels of international migration are associated with lower scores on the human development index, net of controls, but that the effect of international migration is relatively small. Keywords Migration Development Human development Globalization Less-developed countries Population

1 Introduction Historically, international migration in developing countries has been directed predominately toward developed countries. More recently, however, international migration in developing countries has become more globalized to the extent that migrant ows now include a broader variety of both sending and receiving countries (Castles and Miller 2003; Nyberg-Sorenson et al. 2002). The globalization of migration has coincided with a trend toward more prevalent South-to-South movements, with persons increasingly moving between developing countries (Nyberg-Sorenson et al. 2002). Indeed, one-half of all migrants from developing countries now move to another developing country (Ratha and Shaw 2007), and South-to-South migration has become as prevalent as South-to-North migration (Martin and Widgren 2002).
M. Sanderson (&) Lehigh University, Bethlehem, PA 18015, USA e-mail: matthew.sanderson@lehigh.edu

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The present level of international migration in less-developed countries has raised new and important questions regarding the impact of these movements for human development outcomes. In a world in which international migration is produced in large part by persistent cross-national differences in income levels (Hatton and Williamson 2006), policymakers and development practitioners are searching for ways to utilize the mobility of people to raise income levels, living standards, and promote aggregate development in less-developed countries (Annan 2006; UN 2006; WB 2006a). However, there is little systematic cross-national evidence regarding whether or how international migration affects development outcomes in migrant-receiving countries in the less-developed world. Previous cross-national studies (Frey and Al-Roumi 1999; Frey and Field 2000; Lena and London 1993; London 1988; London and Williams 1988; 1990; Nolan 1988; Nolan and White 1983; 1984; Shandra et al. 2004, 2005; Shen and Williamson 1997, 1999, 2001; Wimberley 1990, 1991; Wimberley and Bello 1992) have neglected the role of international migration as an explanation of variation in development outcomes. Moreover, when it has been studied, the development implications of international migration have been examined almost exclusively in terms of the effects of remittances on migrant-sending countries (Adams Jr. and Page 2005; Cohen 2005; Durand et al. 1996; Gammeltoft 2002; de Haas 2005; Martin and Straubhaar 2002; Massey and Parrado 1998; Stark 2004; Taylor 1999; Taylor et al. 1996a, b; WB 2006a). The impact of international migration on development outcomes in migrant-receiving countries has not been addressed systematically across countries and over time. My aim is to assess whether and how international migration affects development outcomes in migrant-receiving countries in the less-developed world. My analysis advances previous efforts in several ways. First, by assessing the impact of international migration, I incorporate an alternative explanation of human development into previous models. Second, I analyze the impact of international migration alongside a variety of other domestic and international explanations of development identied in previous studies. Third, I examine the effect of international migration on a more extensive measure of development that incorporates both economic and non-economic factors. Fourth, I use more recent data on developing countries and employ more modern estimation techniques that address some of the methodological concerns identied in previous studies. Finally, I examine the impacts of international migration on human development across countries and over time. This allows a more comprehensive understanding of the relationship between international migration and human development compared to previous studies.

2 Review of Previous Literature 2.1 Conceptualizing Development While there have been some signicant improvements over the past twenty years (Easterlin 2000), the contemporary developing world still faces an array of pressing development challenges. Approximately 40% (2.5 billion) of the worlds population survives on less than $2 per day (UNDP 2005). These problems are vividly evident in sub-Saharan Africa where a child born today in Zambia is less likely to survive to age 30 than a child born in England in 1840 (UNDP 2005). Historically, the most common answer to such challenges has been to improve per capita income levels (UNDP 1990). In this respect, development has traditionally been considered largely in material, economic terms and cross-national studies have examined

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the impact of various domestic and international explanations of per capita income levels (Bornschier et al. 1978; Chase-Dunn 1975; Dixon and Boswell 1996; Kentor 1981, 1998, 2001; Kentor and Boswell 2003; Timberlake and Kentor 1983). There is now, however, an emerging consensus that development is a multidimensional concept that encompasses both economic and non-economic elements of human welfare (UNDP 2005). From this perspective, income is viewed not as an end, but as a means to increase human development (UNDP 1990). This is a more comprehensive view of development that considers improvements in human capabilities and expansions in human freedoms to be as equally important for human welfare as expansions in income (Sen 1999). Previous cross-national studies have employed a variety of composite indicators to measure human development, including the Physical Quality of Life Index (Ragin and Bradshaw 1992; Shin 1989) and the Index of Net Social Progress (London and Williams 1990). However, more recent studies (Davies and Quinlivian 2006; Tsai 2006, 2007) employ the United Nations (1990) Human Development Index (HDI), which supplements the material dimension of human welfare (income) with measures of the capacity to acquire knowledge (education) and the ability to live a long and healthy life (longevity). Composite indicators have been criticized on the grounds that they are sensitive to the weights applied to their components. If there is disagreement about the relative importance of weights for each component of the HDI, then the HDI might not represent a reliable composite indicator of the quality of life, or well-being, in a country. However, Hagerty and Land (2007) explored the robustness of the HDI, and other composite indicators of well-being, to various weighting schemes. Their empirical analysis demonstrated that the HDI is very robust to different weighting schemes: For the HDI 2001, different weights are simply not an impediment to agreement on a QOL (quality-of-life) index (p. 473). Thus, although their utility has been disputed, the HDI is useful when the research inquiry is interested in the net effect of a variety of indicators, even when different weights are assigned to its components. In this respect, the HDI is considered excellent in the general level of aggregation in its purpose of providing an assessment of development (Hagerty et al. 2001). 2.2 Previous Cross-National Studies of Human Development Outcomes There is signicant variation in human development levels across developing countries. While per capita income is associated with human development (Ranis et al. 2000), countries with similar levels of GDP per capita can have considerable variation in human development scores. For example, Albania (HDI = .80) has a human development score similar to Iran (HDI = .76), but Irans per capita income level ($8,800) is much greater than Albanias per capita income level ($5,300) (UNDP 2007). Discrepancies between economic and human development levels have encouraged cross-national researchers to look beyond GDP per capita toward external, or global, explanations of variation in human development outcomes (Easterlin 2000). These studies acknowledge the importance of global integration for intranational processes and dynamics. In this respect, international trade and foreign direct investment have been identied as important explanations. However, the empirical evidence linking these factors with human development outcomes is mixed. While some studies report that trade (Boehmer and Williamson 1996; Lena and London 1993; Shen and Williamson 2001) and foreign investment (Lena and London 1993; London 1988; Shandra et al. 2004, 2005; Shen and Williamson 2001; Wimberley 1990) are detrimental to human development outcomes

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in developing countries, others nd that either trade or foreign investment has no effect on human development outcomes (Brady et al. 2007; Cutright and Adams 1984; Frey and Field 2000). The lack of robust ndings for international trade and foreign investment suggests the need to incorporate alternative measures of global integration into cross-national models of human development outcomes. International migration could be one such measure, as cross-national movements of people generate the very economic (Massey et al. 2002) and non-economic (Glick Schiller et al. 1995; Portes 2001) linkages between countries that constitute global integration. However, while cross-national research has included a variety of demographic factors as determinants of human development outcomes (Boehmer and Williamson 1996; Brady et al. 2007; Frey and Al-Roumi 1999; Frey and Field 2000; London 1988; Nolan 1988; Shandra et al. 2004, 2005; Shen and Williamson 1997, 1999; Wickrama and Lorenz 2002; Wimberley 1990) the role of international migration has been neglected. 2.3 The Role of International Migration Population dynamics (fertility, mortality, and migration) are vital to the prospects for development (Barlow 1994; Crenshaw et al. 1997; Kelley and Schmidt 1995; Preston 1986). The relationship between population dynamics and development is commonly expressed in terms of the demographic transition, which describes the shift from high fertility and mortality toward lower fertility and mortality that occurs with economic development and modernizing social structures (Kirk 1996). The historical experience of developed countries generally demonstrates that persistently elevated fertility and mortality rates are impediments in the demographic transition toward advances in development, including improvements in economic development, literacy, and longevity (Lee 2003). In this respect, international migration is important because it is a population dynamic that can affect the factors that promote or impede the demographic transition toward improvements in human development: Immigration is the wild card: it can hasten or slow these trends (Kent and Haub 2005, p. 7). I describe the impacts of migration on human development in the following discussion. I focus the discussion on the impacts of migration in urban areas of developing countries for two reasons. First, international migration in developing countries has historically been directed predominately toward urban areas (Skeldon 1997). Second, urban areas are becoming increasingly important as loci of social change in developing countries, as these areas are expected to experience the largest gains in population in the foreseeable future: Nearly all the net population growth in the next 50 years will occur in the cities and towns of less developed countries (Kent and Haub 2005, p. 12). For these reasons, the impacts of migration on human development outcomes are perhaps most clearly exemplied in the urban and urbanizing areas of developing countries. 2.3.1 Migration and the Human Inux Historically, the urban transition (Weeks 2005, p. 99) from a predominately rural, agricultural-based society to a largely urban, industrial-based society has been associated with the demographic transition toward improvements in human development levels. Rising urbanization levels have generally been associated with decreased fertility and mortality levels and improved standards of living: no country in the industrial age has ever achieved signicant economic growth without urbanization (UNFPA 2007, p. 1).

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Indeed, migration into urban areas has played a key role in promoting urbanization and the demographic transition in developed countries (UN 2006, pp. 4651). Urbanization in developing countries, however, is qualitatively different from urbanization in developed countries because it is shaped, at least in part, by the global politicaleconomic context (Roberts 1995; Smith 1996; Timberlake 1985). Urbanization patterns in developing countries exhibit several undesirable features related to the countries structurally-disadvantaged positions in the global economy. Among the most pressing issues is the problem of overurbanization (Smith 1987), which occurs when urbanization levels increase faster than rates of economic development. In this context, population growth outstrips the ability of the host economy and society to adjust, absorb, and cope with the human inux (Smith 1987, p. 271), resulting in insufcient labor demand, unemployment, and burgeoning informal sector employment levels (Evans and Timberlake 1980). Overurbanization has been shown to have detrimental effects on economic development in LDCs (London 1987, 1988; London and Smith 1988; Smith 1996). Migration fuels the human inux (Smith 1987, p. 271) that generates detrimental urbanization patterns in developing countries. Internal, rural-urban, migration ows certainly play a key role in rising urbanization levels (Chen et al. 1998). However, international migration into developing countries is also very important. About 80% of all south-south international migration now occurs between countries with contiguous borders (Martin and Widgren 2002; Ratha and Shaw 2007), and ruralurban migrations that cross national boundaries are increasingly common, particularly where the income differential between neighboring countries is higher (Ratha and Shaw 2007). Thus, to the extent that immigration facilitates overurbanization, it is likely to have detrimental effects on human development. 2.3.2 Impediments to Human Development The harmful effects of migration on human development are also evident in the increased prevalence of health problems in urban areas of developing countries. While cities were once considered, islands of privilege (Harrison 1982, p. 145), with lower fertility and mortality rates and higher standards of living for residents, they are increasingly becoming unhealthy islands (Stephens 1996, p. 9) as the advantages of urban life for health outcomes deteriorates. Indeed, there is renewed concern over an emerging urban penalty (Harpham and Molyneux 2001, p. 119) associated with health outcomes in urban areas of many developing countries. Infant mortality rates are a particularly important component of the renewed urban penalty. While infant mortality rates have fallen dramatically in developed countries, they have remained high or stable across a large proportion of urban areas in developing countries (Brockerhoff and Brennan 1998). This trend is particularly ominous for human development prospects because urban areas have historically been on the leading edge of mortality declines in the demographic transition. Persistently elevated infant mortality rates are attributable, at least in part, to the spread of infectious diseases in the cities of developing countries. Indeed, while the prevalence of many communicable diseases has been dramatically reduced in developed countries, these diseases remain prevalent in the cities of developing countries: Urban malaria, for example, has never gone away in many areas of the world and for the urban poor in the South, tuberculosis never went away (Stephens 1996, p. 23). Immigration is important here because human mobility, by denition, increases the risk of transmitting infectious disease: The frequency of contact, the density of the population and the concentration and

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proximity of infective and susceptible people in an urban population promote the transmission of the infective organisms. The constant inux of migrants susceptible to infection and possible carriers of the new virulent strains of infective agents, together with the inevitable increase in household numbers, foster the transfer of microorganisms (Satterthwaite 1993, p. 91). However, compounding the problem is the tendency for immigrants to face conditions that promote the spread of infectious and communicable diseases. The relationship between migration and HIV/AIDS exemplies this situation (Decosas and Adrien 1997; Mabey and Mayaud 1997; Quinn 1994). International migrants often work for extended periods of time, usually measured in years, away from spouses in anomic social contexts with limited access to health services, minimal social contact or recreational activities (Lamptey et al. 2006, p. 6). These conditions increase the likelihood that migrants will engage in risky sexual behaviors that spread HIV/AIDS (ILO 2002; Lurie 2006). Indeed, migrants have been shown to be at a higher risk for HIV/AIDS than non-migrants (Brewer et al. 1998; Hunt 1989; Lurie et al. 2003). Thus, by facilitating the spread of communicable diseases, including HIV/AIDS, immigration may impede declines in infant mortality rates and reduce aggregate human development levels. In addition to being detrimental to infant mortality, immigration may also negatively impact human development by raising fertility rates. This may occur in one of two ways. First, to the extent that it promotes increases in infant mortality rates, immigration places upward pressure on fertility rates. Persistently elevated infant mortality rates promote high fertility rates because families want to ensure that an appropriate number of children survive. Second, immigrants generally exhibit higher fertility rates, particularly when they originate in rural areas (Brockerhoff 1995; Hirschman 1994; Zarate and de Zarate 1975). These fertility patterns are embedded in cultural norms and expectations and can be resistant to change, at least in the short-term: traditional values are typically rooted in rural environments and among recent migrants to urban areas. Cultural values, however, may persist long after the structural conditions in which they originated have eroded (Hirschman 1994, p. 216). Thus, immigration may raise fertility rates, slowing the demographic transition, and potentially impeding human development.

3 Method and Data 3.1 Dependent Variable I assess the impact of international migration on human development by using the human development index (HDI) (UNDP 1990). The HDI is a composite measure that combines indices of three essential elements of human life: longevity, knowledge, and standard of living. Longevity is measured using an estimation of life expectancy at birth for the population. Knowledge is measured as a composite score of adult literacy and gross primary and secondary enrollment rates for the population, with adult literacy weighted at 67% and school enrollments weighted at 33%. The standard of living is a proxy for the dimensions of human development not captured by measures of longevity and knowledge. It is measured as the level GDP per capita adjusted for purchasing power parity in U.S. dollars. An index for each dimension of the HDI is created by identifying the minimum and maximum levels for the dimension, and entering these values into the following formula:

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Dimension index

observed country value minimum value for all countries maximum value minimum value

The dimension indices are then averaged to compute the HDI: 1 1 1 HDI life expectancy index education index GDP index: 3 3 3

3.2 Key Independent Variable The key explanatory variable is international migration. International migration is measured as the stock of international migrants as a percentage of the total population. This measure is taken from the World Banks World Development Indicators database (WB 2006b) and is logged to correct for skewness. The stock of international immigrants is estimated from census data. These data included information on the place of birth or the citizenship status of the enumerated population, which allowed identication of the foreign born and foreign population. I expect that higher levels of international migration will be associated with lower scores on the human development index, net of controls. 3.3 Control Variables Previous cross-national studies have identied international trade and foreign direct investment (FDI) as important global-level explanations of human development outcomes (Boehmer and Williamson 1996; Lena and London 1993; London 1988; Shandra et al. 2004, 2005; Shen and Williamson 2001; Wimberley 1990). Thus, I include controls for exports per GDP and stocks of FDI per GDP in order to assess the impact of international migration on human development net of these controls. However, I advance previous cross-national studies by also including a measure of FDI stocks decomposed by economic sector (primary, secondary) per GDP. These measures allow us to assess whether and how the impact of FDI on human development differs across economic sectors of the host economy. The FDI data are taken from the United Nations World Investment Directories (UN 1992, 1994, 1996, 2000, 2003) and the Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Developments International Direct Investment Statistics Yearbook (OECD 2001), and are logged to correct for skewness. The exports data are taken from the World Banks World Development Indicators database (WB 2006b). Previous studies (Dixon and Boswell 1996; Firebaugh 1992) have found that domestic investment and foreign investment can have different effects on host social structures. My analysis therefore includes a control for gross domestic investment per GDP in order to distinguish between any differential effects of investment sources on human development. The analysis includes several other controls for important intranational explanations of human development outcomes. I control for the impact of size of the domestic market and the aggregate level of wealth in a society by including the level of GDP per capita. I also include a control for the prevalence of health care resources and medical care infrastructure in the country by including the number of physicians per 1,000 in the population. This

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variable has been used in previous cross-national studies of health outcomes (Shen and Williamson 1997; Wimberley 1990). Previous studies have identied political democracy as an important intranational explanation of human development outcomes (Frey and Al-Roumi 1999; Shandra et al. 2004, 2005). Democratic political structures are more likely to respond to public opinion and special interest groups concerned with issues related to development than more repressive political structures. I control for this effect by including a measure of domestic political structure. Values on this variable range from -10 to ?10, with lower scores indicating more authoritarian political structures and higher scores indicating more democratic political structures. These data are taken from the Polity IV dataset (Marshall et al. 2006). The analysis also controls for a number of demographic factors that could impact human development. The age composition of the population has important implications for development. Populations with relatively young age structures are characterized by a dependency burden that can impede human development outcomes (Barlow 1994). I control for the dependency burden by including the infant mortality rate, which proxies the size of the youth population. As birth cohorts age, they enter the labor force and transition from net resource consumers to become net resource producers, producing a demographic windfall (Crenshaw et al. 1997) effect as the size of the labor force expands relative to the other segments of the population. Higher levels of the population in the prime working-age category should thus produce positive spillover effects for human development. I control for the demographic windfall effect by including the percentage of the total population in the 2029 age category. All of the age composition variables are taken from the United Nations (2007) World Population Prospects dataset. The analysis also includes a control for the spatial distribution of the population. Higher levels of urbanization may be associated with reduced development levels in developing countries (London and Smith 1988; Smith 1987, 1996). As a result, there is renewed discussion of an urban penalty (Harpham and Molyneux 2001) associated with health outcomes in the cities of many developing countries. However, urbanization is also considered to be an important prerequisite for economic development and rising levels of human development (UNFPA 2007, p. 1). Rising levels of urbanization allow for agglomeration of industries, and economies of scale, promoting economic development (McNicoll 1984). Similarly, higher levels of urbanization may also allow for health to be treated for efciently and effectively, thus reducing the prevalence of factors that increase morbidity and mortality. Finally, urbanization levels are closely associated with past levels of ruralurban, or internal, migration levels (White and Lindstron 2006). Internal migration and international migration are qualitatively different types of population movements (White and Lindstron 2006). It is important not to confound these two types of movements in assessing the impact of international migration on human development. The analyses of economic and human development therefore control for the percentage of population in urban areas. These data are taken from the World Banks (2006b) World Development Indicators database. The analysis also includes controls for the status of women. The status of women in society is an important explanation of human development outcomes (Boehmer and Williamson 1996; Shen and Williamson 1997, 1999). I measure the status of women with two measures, each of which captures a unique aspect of the status of women in society.

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Education is a crucial determinant of fertility behavior (Caldwell 1982) and rising levels of education among females strongly reduces fertility rates and improves a variety of human development outcomes (Cleland and Hobcraft 1985). Rising levels of education also improve the relative status of women in society, which is associated with decreases in fertility and infant mortality and increases in positive health outcomes for women (Caldwell 1993; Hirschman 1994; Subbarao and Raney 1995; Wickrama and Lorenz 2002). The analysis controls for the aggregate level of female education by including a measure of the gross secondary school enrollment ratio for females. The gross secondary school enrollment ratio is the ratio of total school enrollment, regardless of age, to the population of the age group that ofcially corresponds to the secondary level of education. These data are taken from the United Nations (UN 2005) Population, Resources, and Environment database. I also control for a second aspect of womens status: the female labor force participation rate. The female labor force participation rate is the percentage of the total economically active population who are females. The economically active population refers to all employed and unemployed women, including those seeking work for the rst time, persons working on their own account, employees, unpaid family workers, members of producers cooperatives and members of the armed forces. Like the rate of female education, higher levels of female participation in the labor force may indicate that women have obtained a higher level of status in society. If so, female labor force participation would be expected to be associated with improvements in human development. However, higher levels of female labor force participation may have a detrimental effect on infant mortality rates because working mothers may not have sufcient time to devote to caring for infants (Hobcraft et al. 1984). Thus, it is necessary to distinguish between the impact of education and labor force participation for women, as they may have different effects on human development. These data are taken from the United Nations (2005) Population, Resources, and Environment database. Finally, in order to capture time-specic effects that may affect the level of human development but are not explicitly controlled for in the analysis (e.g. military conicts, famines, refugee crises), the analysis includes dummy variables for each of the 10-year periods, or waves, examined in the analysis (Wooldridge 2006). 3.4 Panel Analysis This study uses cross-national panel data to examine the impact of international migration on human development in developing countries. The panel dataset includes data measured at ten year intervals over the period, 19702005. The dependent variable is lagged ten years in each wave in order to allow hypothesized effects to become evident. Unobserved effects are central to the problem of causal inference, and panel data provide an advantage over cross-sectional data in addressing the issue of unobservable inuences (Halaby 2004). Panel models have traditionally included a lagged endogenous variable on the right hand side of the equation and used ordinary least-squares to estimate the model. Including the lagged endogenous variable is considered to at least partially control for the unobserved effects of omitted variables on the dependent variable (Finkel 1995). Fixed effects models and random effects models represent more sophisticated approaches to the problem of unobserved heterogeneity. Between-unit variation is the source of heterogeneity bias in OLS (Stimson 1985, p. 921). Ordinary least squares, however, cannot

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address the problem because it assumes observations are homogenous on the level of the dependent variable; that is, observations are constrained to a common intercept (Stimson 1985, p. 921). To correct for heterogeneity bias, xed effects and random effects models simulate (Alderson and Nielsen 1999, p. 616) time-invariant country-specic effects by allowing each country to have a unique intercept, or effect. The two approaches differ, however, in how each treats country-specic effects. Fixed effects models introduce a series of dummy variables to allow each country to have a unique effect (Wooldridge 2006). It treats the country-specic effects as xed while retaining the classic OLS error structure. Fitting individual intercepts effectively removes all between-unit variation from the data, thereby removing the source of heterogeneity bias (Stimson 1985). The xed effects model is specied as follows: yit ao ai b0 xit eit where ao is the mean overall intercept; ai is the country-specic intercept, or the countryspecic deviation from the overall mean intercept for country i that explicitly controls for unobserved heterogeneity; xit is a vector of covariates for country i at time t; and eit is the familiar error term from OLS. Random effects modeling treats the country-specic intercepts as part of the error term and considers them as random draws from a larger population (Wooldridge 2006). Because the country-specic effects are considered to be random, the distribution parameters (mean and variance) are of more interest than the individual xed countryspecic effects (Stimson 1985, p. 923). Random effects modeling corrects for unobserved heterogeneity by specifying the bias and modeling it as part of a complex error structure. The random effects model is specied as follows: yit ao b0 xit ui eit where ao is the mean overall intercept; xit is a vector of covariates for country i at time t; ui is the country-specic effect, or the country-specic deviation from the overall mean intercept for country i that explicitly controls for unobserved heterogeneity; and eit is disturbance term. 3.5 Sample Composition The countries included in the analyses are selected on the basis of data availability. Countries are included in the analysis if they have information on the endogenous variable at time t and the exogenous variables at time t-10. For example, a country is included in the analysis if it has data available on the endogenous variable at time t (measured in 1980, 1990, 2000, or 2005) and on all of the exogenous variables at time t-10 (measured in 1970, 1980, 1990, or 1995). On the contrary, a country would not be included in the analysis if it is missing data on the endogenous variable at time t or any of the exogenous variables at time t-10. Because countries are included in the analyses based upon data availability, the sample is not, strictly speaking, a random draw from the population of all less-developed countries. However, two issues are worth noting. First, the sample includes countries from each region of the less-developed world, with countries in the Latin America and Caribbean region being overrepresented. There are six countries from the East Asia and Pacic region, ve countries from the South Asia region, seventeen countries from the Latin

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America and Caribbean region, and four countries from the Eastern Europe and Central Asian region. Thus, to the extent that the results of the analyses are generalizable, they likely are more representative of Latin American and Caribbean countries than of countries in other regions of the less-developed world. Appendix 1, lists the countries included in the analysis. Second, the measures of central tendency for the endogenous variable (HDI) and the key exogenous variable (international migrants per capita) in the sample are similar when compared to the total population of countries for which data was available. Appendix 2 presents correlation coefcients and basic descriptive statistics for the variables and Appendix 3 provides a comparison of basic descriptive statistics for the endogenous variable and key exogenous variable for the sample and the total population of countries. 3.6 Robustness Checks In order to assess the robustness of the estimates, several checks were implemented. First, bivariate plots were inspected for the presence of outliers. Armenia, Estonia, Georgia, Kazakhstan, and Lithuaniave successor states of the former Soviet Unionand Slovakiaa successor state of the former Czechoslovakia were outliers with very large stocks of international migrants. These countries were excluded from the analysis because the international migration data for these countries reects substantial error from reclassication of international migration. I note, however, that excluding these countries does not change the substantive ndings of the analyses. Second, the models were estimated using two different estimation techniques for panel data: random and xed effects modeling. There is considerable debate over whether xed effects or random effects modeling is a more appropriate method of addressing the problem of unobserved heterogeneity. The choice over whether to employ random or xed effects modeling in the analysis is commonly resolved by using the Hausman test to test for statistical differences in the random and xed effects estimators (Halaby 2004). Where it was possible to run them, Hausman tests favored the xed effects models over the random effects models in my analysis. However, the ndings were robust to both random and xed effects specications. I present estimates from both random and xed effects models in order to assess the robustness of the ndings across different modeling techniques. Third, although the analyses incorporate data on the largest possible sample given data availability, the estimates might be sensitive to sample composition. Thus, two different resampling techniques were used to estimate the standard errors for the coefcients: bootstrapping and jackkning. Both bootstrapping and jackkning are data-dependent, nonparametric, approaches to estimating standard errors from the observed distribution of the sample (Davison and Hinkley 1997; Efron 1979; Mooney and Duval 1993). Bootstrapping constructs samples of the standard errors by taking random draws of N observations from a N-observation dataset. For this analysis, the bootstrapped standard errors were calculated based upon 1,000 repetitions of sample size 34. Jackkning repeatedly calculates the statistic by omitting one randomly-selected observation from each sample. As a result, jackkning has been used to check the robustness of the estimates to inuential observations in addition to its utility as a resampling technique (Gould 1994). Because the data are clustered, one country (i.e.,

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observation) was omitted from each sample when calculating the jackknife standard errors for the estimates. The estimates are presented below with standard errors estimated using random and xed effects modeling. However, these estimates were robust to both the bootstrap and the jackknife resampling techniques. Results from these supplemental analyses are available upon request.

4 Results The central nding of the analysis is that international migration has a negative effect on human development levels over a 10-year period, net of controls. The negative impact of international migration is robust across both random and xed effects modeling techniques and in the presence of all control variables. However, it is important to note that the effect of international migration is relatively small: because the migration variable is logarithmically transformed, a 1% increase in international migration as a proportion of the population is associated with a decline of 0.01 in the human development index. While no other variable has a consistent effect on human development across random and xed effects models, four variables are robust across random effects models net of controls. Levels of economic development are positively associated with human development, while infant mortality rates have a negative effect on human development across random effects models. I also nd that the two measures of womens status have contrasting effects. Female labor force participation rates have a negative impact on human development, but female education rates have a positive impact on human development. The models also provide partial evidence that stocks of FDI have a positive effect on human development, and that there is a trend toward rising levels of human development since 1970 across developing countries. The complete results are given in Table 1, which includes four models. Model 1 includes international migration along with controls for important intranational characteristics of the country: levels of economic development, female education rates, prevalence of medical resources, female labor force participation rates, levels of democratic development, and infant mortality rates. International migration has a negative effect on human development, net of these control variables. Higher levels of international migration are associated with lower levels of human development. This effect is robust across random and xed effects models. This nding provides support for Malthusian-type, population pessimist theories that view immigration as a detriment to human development. Higher levels of female labor force participation rates also have a negative effect on human development. This effect is robust across modeling techniques. However, while higher rates of female participation in the labor market have a detrimental impact on human development, higher rates of female education are positively associated with human development. Economic development also has a positive effect on human development levels. Infant mortality rates are also negatively associated with human development. However, the effects of female education, economic development, and infant mortality are not robust across modeling techniques. The prevalence of medical resources and the level of democratic development are not associated with human development in this model. The results do, however, nd partial evidence that human development levels have consistently increased since 1970, as each of the time trend variables in the xed effects models is positive and signicant.

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Table 1 Panel regressions of human development index on international migration Model 2 REM -0.0125*** (0.0045) 0.00002*** (5.38e-06) 0.0010*** (0.0004) 0.0007 (0.0120) -0.0019* (0.0010) -0.0021* (0.0010) -0.0002 (0.0006) -0.0014*** (0.0003) 0.0000 (0.0004) -0.0005 (0.0003) -0.0019* (0.0011) -0.0006 (0.0006) -0.0014*** (0.0003) 0.0009 (0.0006) -0.1834 (0.3519) 0.2777 (0.3724) 0.0001 (0.0004) 0.1129* (0.0519) 0.0000 (0.0006) -0.0002 (0.0004) 0.1077* (0.0441) 0.0003 (0.0006) 0.0000 (0.0007) -0.0046* (0.0028) 0.0024 (0.0028) 0.0003 (0.0006) 0.0016 (0.0032) 0.0046* (0.0023) 0.0005 (0.0004) -0.0003 (0.0004) -0.0001 (0.0011) -0.0005 (0.0004) -0.0002 (0.0005) -0.0016 (0.0011) -0.0160 (0.0132) 0.0154 (0.0111) -0.0054 (0.0121) -0.0002 (0.0004) 0.0008** (0.0004) -0.0001 (0.0004) 0.0008* (0.0004) 0.0125 (0.0113) -0.0016 (0.0010) -0.0007 (0.0006) -0.0015* (0.0003) 3.46e-06 (6.30e-06) 0.00002*** (4.78e-06) 5.55e-06 (5.57e-06) 0.00002*** (4.96e-06) -0.0135*** (0.0038) -0.0137*** (0.0042) -0.0119*** (0.0036) -0.0153*** (0.0045) FEM REM FEM REM FEM -0.0129*** (0.0037) 3.08e-06 (5.91e-06) -0.0004 (0.0004) -0.0186 (0.0140) -0.0019* (0.0012) -0.0001 (0.0005) -0.0004 (0.0003) Model 3 Model 4

Model 1

REM

FEM

International migrants per capita (ln)

-0.0140*** (0.0043)

-0.0133*** (0.0037)

Gross domestic product per 0.00002*** capita (4.84e-06)

4.29e-06 (5.65e-06)

Female secondary enrollment rate

0.0010** (0.0004)

-0.0001 (0.0004)

Physicians per 1,000

0.0107 (0.0106)

-0.0135 (0.0121)

Female labor force participation rate

-0.0022* (0.0010)

-0.0018* (0.0011)

Democratic development

-0.0005 (0.0005)

-0.0004 (0.0004)

Infant mortality rate

-0.0014*** (0.0003)

-0.0005 (0.0003)

Percentage urban

International Migration and Human Development in Destination Countries

Percentage aged 20-29 (t-10)

Exports per GDP

FDI stock per GDP (ln)

Domestic investment per GDP

FDI primary stock per GDP (ln)

123

FDI secondary stock per GDP (ln)

71

72

Table 1 continued Model 2 REM 0.0022 (0.0131) 0.0141 (0.0060) 0.0085* (0.0244) 0.6866*** (0.0850) 0.889 34/66 34/66 34/66 34/66 0.325 0.862 0.541 0.6311*** (0.0860) 0.6818*** (0.0458) 0.6613*** (0.0410) 0.0956*** (0.0268) -0.0148 (0.0204) 0.0837*** (0.0247) -0.0140 (0.0205) 0.6551*** (0.0521) 0.889 34/66 0.0864*** (0.0245) 0.0029 (0.0178) 0.0817*** (0.0207) 0.0022 (0.0181) 0.0445*** (0.0151) -0.0038 (0.0120) 0.0448*** (0.0131) -0.0131 (0.0130) FEM REM FEM REM FEM 0.0591*** (0.0168) 0.1081*** (0.0241) 0.1160*** (0.0285) 0.7008*** (0.0562) 0.188 34/66 Model 3 Model 4

Model 1

123

REM

FEM

1980

-0.0008 (0.0120)

0.0489*** (0.0128)

1990

0.0130 (0.0058)

0.0941*** (0.0203)

1995

0.0025* (0.0201)

0.1014*** (0.0239)

Constant

0.6900*** (0.0437)

0.6672*** (0.0384)

R2

0.882

0.444

34/66

34/66

*** p \ .001; ** p \ .01; * p \ .05 (one-tailed tests)

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In Model 2, I include controls for the age composition and the spatial distribution of the population. Neither of these variables has an effect on human development in these models. International migration remains negative and signicant, net of these control variables, and is robust across random and xed effects models. The opposing effects of womens status remain apparent in this model. Higher levels of female labor force participation rates have a negative effect on human development, but higher rates of female education are positively associated with human development. However, compared to Model 1, female labor force participation rates are no longer robust across random and xed effects models. Infant mortality rates are also negatively associated with human development, but this effect is not apparent in the xed effect model. Similarly, economic development has a positive impact on human development, but only in the random effects model. The prevalence of medical resources and the level of democratic development are not associated with human development in this model. The time trend variables indicate rising levels of human development since 1970, but this effect is not robust across modeling techniques. In Model 3, I add controls for international trade and FDI to assess the impact of international migration on human development net of these important international variables. I also include domestic investment to control for the differential effects of foreign and domestic investment on human development. International migration has a negative effect on human development, net of these controls, and it is robust across random and xed effects models. Contrary to the global political economy literature, I nd that stocks of FDI have a positive effect on human development. This effect is robust across random and xed effects models. International trade and domestic investment, however, do not have an effect on human development in these models. The two measures of womens status have contrasting effects, as higher levels of female labor force participation rates are associated with lower levels of human development, but higher levels of female education rates are associated with higher levels of human development. Of these two variables, however, only the negative effect of female labor force participation rates is consistent across random and xed effects models. Infant mortality rates are also negatively associated with human development, but this effect is not apparent in the xed effect model. The prevalence of medical resources and the level of democratic development are not associated with human development in this model. The models again report partial evidence that human development levels have consistently increased since 1970, as each of the time trend variables in the xed effects models is positive and signicant. In Model 4, I substitute controls for FDI decomposed across economic sectors of the host economy for the aggregated FDI variable used in Model 3. International migration still has a negative effect on human development, net of the disaggregated FDI measures and other controls. This effect is robust across random and xed effects models. Neither FDI primary stocks nor FDI secondary stocks are robust across modeling techniques. However, the analysis does indicate that the aggregate FDI stocks measure may conceal contradictory effects of FDI on human development. In the random effects model, stocks of FDI in the primary sector have a negative impact on human development, but FDI secondary stocks has no effect. In the xed effects model, stocks of FDI in the secondary sector has a positive effect on human development, but FDI primary has no effect. International trade and domestic investment do not have an effect on human development in these models. Female education rates are positively associated with human development, but are only signicant in the random effects model. Female labor force

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participation rates are negatively associated with human development, but are only signicant in the xed effects models. Infant mortality rates are also negatively associated with human development, but this effect is not apparent in the xed effect model. Similarly, economic development has a positive impact on human development, but only in the random effects model. The prevalence of medical resources and the level of democratic development are not associated with human development in this model. The time trend variables indicate rising levels of human development since 1970, but this effect is not robust across modeling techniques.

5 Discussion This study suggests that international migration is an important explanation of crossnational variation in human development levels. This analysis nds that higher levels of international migration are associated with lower human development levels over a 10-year period. This nding is robust across two different modeling techniques that include controls for important international and internal economic, demographic, and political explanations of human development. Developing countries with larger shares of international migrants as a proportion of the population face several impediments to human development as a result of the international immigration. While the harmful impacts of migrant streams into developed countries tend to be diminished by relatively robust economies, political structures, and social welfare infrastructures, it is likely that migration into less-developed countries places excess burden on the relatively minimal infrastructures that support social welfare and human well-being. As a result, immigration into developing countries tends to undermine, rather than promote, human development and social well-being. This analysis contributes to our understanding of the structural impacts of international migration on development outcomes in less-developed countries. As the destinations of migrant ows becomes increasingly diverse (Castles and Miller 2003) and a broader array of developing countries are more deeply enmeshed into global processes, understanding the structural consequences of international migration will only become more important both for social theory and for development policies. It is worth stressing, however, that the ndings reported here suggest that although the effect of international migration is statistically signicant, it is also relatively small in size: a 1% increase in the stock of international immigrants as a proportion of the population is associated with a .01 decrease in the human development index. Thus, these ndings lend credence to the importance of international migration as an explanation of human development outcomes in cross-national research. In this respect, much more research along these lines is needed. For example, there is reason to believe that the effect of international migration might be larger than is indicated by the ndings presented here, as the indicators of international migration stocks in less-developed countries likely undercount, quite signicantly, the actual size of the foreign born populations (Zlotnik 1998). Most migrants who move into less-developed countries are from younger age cohorts, which increases the likelihood that they will enter the host country without documents, or illegally (McKenzie 2008). Thus, to the extent that censuses and population registers in less-developed countries undercount undocumented migration, the effect of international migration could be larger than these ndings suggest. Hence, the need for future research. Regardless, however, the results presented here

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75

do not support the position that international migration is the strongest, nor the most important, explanation of human development levels in migrant-receiving countries in the less-developed world. Nevertheless, the ndings do advance cross-national scholarship on human development in several ways. Previous studies have relied primarily on economic measures such as international trade and foreign direct investment to assess the impact of global integration on human development. By demonstrating the explanatory power of international migration, I have identied an important non-economic dimension of global integration that exerts a signicant effect on human development levels across countries and over time. Thus, this study suggests that incorporating international migration into theoretical and empirical models would further enhance our understanding of globalization as a multidimensional phenomenon that includes both economic and noneconomic components. Studies that consider only economic forms of global integration offer less complete answers to increasingly complex questions about the consequences of globalization. Another contribution of this analysis is to provide additional insights into the effect of foreign direct investment on development. Compared to previous studies, I examine the effect of foreign direct investment on a broader measure of development and over a longer time horizon. The analysis controls for a wider array of variables and uses more sophisticated modeling techniques that address methodological problems inherent in panel analysis. I also disaggregate foreign direct investment by economic sectors in addition to assessing the impact of the total stock of foreign direct investment. When measured in the traditional manner as total stocks, foreign direct investment has a positive impact on human development levels. This nding is contrary to some of the previous research in this area, which reports a negative impact of foreign investment (Lena and London 1993; London 1988; Shandra et al. 2004, 2005; Shen and Williamson 2001; Wimberley 1990). However, when foreign direct investment is disaggregated across economic sectors, the results are more mixed. Foreign investment in the primary sector has a negative effect on human development and foreign investment in the secondary sector has a positive effect. While neither of these effects is robust across modeling techniques, this analysis does provide a more nuanced understanding of the relationship between foreign direct investment and human development and suggests an important area for future research. Previous studies that report that foreign investment has a detrimental impact on human development outcomes might be capturing the effect of foreign investment in the primary sector. Thus, if samples are comprised largely of countries in which primary sector foreign investment is predominate, the ndings may be a partial artifact of sample composition. Subsequent studies on the relationship between sectoral foreign investment and development outcomes are therefore particularly worthwhile. Two other notable ndings are the relatively minimal impact of per capita income levels and the relatively robust impacts of womens status on human development. While the traditional answer to human development problems is to raise per capita income levels, this analysis suggests that this strategy may have limited impact. Economic development certainly promotes social well-being, as these ndings indicate, but there are several other noneconomic factors that have larger impacts on human development levels, including migration. In this respect, the status of women in society is another such factor. The analysis suggests that womens status has opposing effects on human development. Countries with higher proportions of educated women tend to have higher human development levels.

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However, human development levels tend to be lower where women represent larger proportions of the labor force. These ndings suggest the importance of educating women for development prospects but also provide evidence of the importance of women in providing child care and basic needs for households in developing countries. These ndings deserve serious attention in future research in that they may provide additional insights into the expanding role of women in development processes. Finally, this analysis has implications for development policies. Although international migration remains the step-child (Bouvier et al. 1997; Goldstein 1976) of demographic research and development policy, these ndings suggests the need to more thoroughly incorporate international migration into development frameworks. At the national level, migration clearly has an impact on labor markets, political structures, and social welfare infrastructures. While I acknowledge the constraints placed upon policy construction by transnational social structures (Meyers 2000), it remains incumbent upon national policymakers to account for the impact of international migration, regardless of the size of its relative effect on host social structures and development outcomes. Economic growth and human development are correlated, and raising per capita incomes is important for development prospects. However, there is increasing evidence that suggests that improvements in human development outcomes are more important for increasing living standards (Ranis et al. 2000). Country performance in raising living standards depends on two factors: the time sequencing of the relationship and the strength of the association (Ranis et al. 2000). In terms of the timing of development policies, human development seems to be more important than economic development. Development policies that emphasize economic growth, without concomitant improvements in human development, tend to lead countries toward a dead end, while policies that promote human development can lead countries toward virtuous, mutually-reinforcing cycles that promote both economic and human development: Economic growth itself will not be sustained unless preceded or accompanied by improvements in human development (Ranis et al. 2000, pp. 212213). Thus, to the extent that migration is detrimental for human development, it is likely to also undermine the prospects for economic development. In response, policymakers should attempt to strengthen the relationship between economic and human development. In this respect, these results provide evidence that states could potentially minimize the detrimental impact of international migration by providing sufcient resources for health and education, particularly for women.

Appendix 1 See Table 2.

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International Migration and Human Development in Destination Countries Table 2 Countries included in cross-national analysis of human development 19701980 Argentina Bangladesh Bulgaria Bolivia Brazil Chile Colombia Costa Rica Dominican Republic Ecuador Guatemala Honduras Hungary Indonesia India Sri Lanka Mexico Mongolia Nigeria Nepal Pakistan Panama Peru Philippines Papua New Guinea Poland Paraguay El Salvador Thailand Trinidad and Tobago Turkey Tanzania Venezuela, RB Vietnam N = 34, 66 observations x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x 19801990 19902000 x

77

19952005 x

Appendix 2 See Table 3.

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78

123
(e) (f) (g) (h) (i) (j) (k) (l) (m) (n) (o) 1.000 0.731 0.191 0.345 -0.591 0.697 -0.231 0.166 -0.053 0.038 -0.042 -0.011 0.90 0.71 0.82 66 66 66 8.00 5.69 33.20 7.00 33.77 4.61 0.303 0.080 -0.305 58.31 46.00 37.57 66 -0.367 0.051 -0.189 0.000 0.109 -0.279 -0.008 0.198 -0.318 -0.179 -0.018 0.119 -0.025 47.91 51.40 23.18 66 0.134 0.329 -0.539 -0.063 0.042 0.029 -0.191 -0.022 1.000 0.235 0.243 0.101 0.227 0.331 0.17 0.17 0.02 66 1.000 0.511 0.384 0.217 0.202 25.10 24.54 14.28 66 1.000 0.706 0.455 0.019 0.11 0.07 0.12 66 1.000 0.289 0.028 0.05 0.01 0.10 66 1.000 -0.088 0.03 0.03 0.03 66 1.000 21.80 21.57 6.44 66 -0.217 0.276 -0.520 1.000 -0.147 -0.451 1.000 0.537 0.024 0.328 0.127 0.105 0.226 43.45 40.75 25.39 66 0.370 0.041 1.000 0.148 1.000 1.000

Table 3 Zero-order correlations and basic descriptive statistics for variables used in cross-national analysis of human development index

(a)

(b)

(c)

(d)

(a) HDI

1.000

(b) Migration

0.045

1.000

(c) GDP

0.729

0.364

1.000

(d) Fem. educ.

0.804

-0.020

0.557

(e) Doc. per 1000

0.651

0.165

0.622

(f) Fem. L.F. Part.

-0.036

-0.171

-0.134

(g) Democracy

0.376

0.344

0.365

(h) Infant mort.

-0.869

-0.124

-0.609

-0.758

(i) Urbanization

0.700

-0.022

0.660

(j) Age comp.

0.083

-0.175

-0.056

(k) Exports

0.331

0.180

0.199

(l) FDI stock

0.176

0.129

0.214

(m) FDI Primary

0.116

-0.142

0.067

(n) FDI secondary

0.143

0.062

0.218

-0.037

(o) Domestic Inv.

0.180

-0.095

-0.135

Mean

0.70

0.02

2091.39

Median

0.74

0.01

1687.69

SD

0.13

0.02

1711.54

66

66

66

M. Sanderson

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79

Appendix 3 See Table 4.

Table 4 Basic descriptive statistics for the sample and the total population of countries HDI Sample Mean Median SD N 0.70 0.74 0.13 66 Total population 0.67 0.71 0.19 932 International migration Sample 0.02 0.01 0.02 66 Total population 0.07 0.03 0.12 1,426

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