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AEON

Forecasting

Data
Period
Year 1
Year 2
Year 3
Year 4
Year 5
Year 6
Year 7
Year 8
Year 9
Year 10
Year 11
Year 12
Year 13
Year 14
Year 15
Year 16
Year 17

Next period

Moving averages - 1 period moving average

Demand

420,031
541,025
618,737
606,956
732,779
909,775
1,107,158
1,262,851
1,406,242
1,648,475
3,571,036
2,640,341
2,198,216
2,394,886
2,524,330
2,609,070
2,882,575

2882575

Forecasts and Error Analysis


Forecast
Error
Absolute
420031
541025
618737
606956
732779
909775
1107158
1262851
1406242
1648475
3571036
2640341
2198216
2394886
2524330
2609070
Total
Average

Squared

Abs Pct Err

120994
120994 1.464E+10
22.36%
77712
77712 6.039E+09
12.56%
-11781
11781 138791961
01.94%
125823
125823 1.583E+10
17.17%
176996
176996 3.133E+10
19.45%
197383
197383 3.896E+10
17.83%
155693
155693 2.424E+10
12.33%
143391
143391 2.056E+10
10.20%
242233
242233 5.868E+10
14.69%
1922561
1922561 3.696E+12
53.84%
-930695
930695 8.662E+11
35.25%
-442125
442125 1.955E+11
20.11%
196670
196670 3.868E+10
08.21%
129444
129444 1.676E+10
05.13%
84740
84740 7.181E+09
03.25%
273505
273505 7.48E+10
09.49%
2462544
5231746 5.106E+12
263.81%
153909 326984.13 3.191E+11
16.49%
Bias
MAD
MSE
MAPE
SE
603900.65

Forecasting
4,000,000
3,500,000
3,000,000

Value

2,500,000
2,000,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Time
Demand

Forecasting

8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
Time
Forecast

AEON
Forecasting

Alpha
Data
Period
Year 1
Year 2
Year 3
Year 4
Year 5
Year 6
Year 7
Year 8
Year 9
Year 10
Year 11
Year 12
Year 13
Year 14
Year 15
Year 16
Year 17

Exponential smoothing

0.1
Demand
420031
541025
618737
606956
732779
909775
1107158
1262851
1406242
1648475
3571036
2640341
2198216
2394886
2524330
2609070
2882575

Next period 1786755.55

Forecasts and Error Analysis


Forecast Error
Absolute
420031
0
0
420031
120994
120994
432130.4 186606.6 186606.6
450791.1 156164.9 156164.9
466407.6 266371.4 266371.4
493044.7 416730.3 416730.3
534717.7 572440.3 572440.3
591961.8 670889.2 670889.2
659050.7 747191.3 747191.3
733769.8 914705.2 914705.2
825240.3 2745796 2745796
1099820 1540521 1540521
1253872
944344
944344
1348306 1046580 1046580
1452964 1071366 1071366
1560101 1048969 1048969
1664998 1217577 1217577
Total
13667246 13667246
Average
803955.6 803955.6
Bias
MAD
SE

Squared
0
14639548036
34822023164
24387488485
70953747244
1.73664E+11
3.27688E+11
4.50092E+11
5.58295E+11
8.36686E+11
7.53939E+12
2.37321E+12
8.91786E+11
1.09533E+12
1.14782E+12
1.10034E+12
1.48249E+12
1.81216E+13
1.06598E+12
MSE
1099138.928

Abs Pct Err


0
0.223638
0.301593
0.257292
0.363509
0.458059
0.517036
0.53125
0.531339
0.55488
0.768907
0.583455
0.429596
0.437006
0.424416
0.402047
0.422392
7.206414
0.423907
MAPE

Forecasting
4000000
3500000
3000000

Value

2500000
2000000
1500000
1000000
500000
0
1

9 10

Time
420031

420031

10 11 12 13 14 15 16

420031

AEON
Forecasting

Alpha
Data
Period
Year 1
Year 2
Year 3
Year 4
Year 5
Year 6
Year 7
Year 8
Year 9
Year 10
Year 11
Year 12
Year 13
Year 14
Year 15
Year 16
Year 17

Exponential smoothing

0.3
Demand
420031
541025
618737
606956
732779
909775
1107158
1262851
1406242
1648475
3571036
2640341
2198216
2394886
2524330
2609070
2882575

Next period 2551039.74

Forecasts and Error Analysis


Forecast Error
Absolute
420031
0
0
420031
120994
120994
456329.2 162407.8 162407.8
505051.5 101904.5 101904.5
535622.9 197156.1 197156.1
594769.7 315005.3 315005.3
689271.3 417886.7 417886.7
814637.3 448213.7 448213.7
949101.4 457140.6 457140.6
1086244 562231.4 562231.4
1254913 2316123 2316123
1949750 690591.1 690591.1
2156927 41288.76 41288.76
2169314 225572.1 225572.1
2236986 287344.5 287344.5
2323189 285881.1 285881.1
2408953 473621.8 473621.8
Total
7103362 7103362
Average
417844.9 417844.9
Bias
MAD
SE

Squared

Abs Pct Err


0
0
14639548036 0.223638
26376293501 0.262483
10384518968 0.167894
38870536442 0.269053
99228329830 0.346245
1.74629E+11 0.377441
2.00896E+11 0.354922
2.08978E+11
0.32508
3.16104E+11 0.341062
5.36443E+12 0.648586
4.76916E+11 0.261554
1704761946 0.018783
50882787667 0.094189
82566858144
0.11383
81728029463 0.109572
2.24318E+11 0.164305
7.37265E+12 4.078636
4.33685E+11
0.23992
MSE
MAPE
701077.6223

Forecasting
4000000
3500000
3000000

Value

2500000
2000000
1500000
1000000
500000
0
1

420031

Forecasting

9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Time
420031

420031

AEON
Forecasting

Alpha
Data
Period
Year 1
Year 2
Year 3
Year 4
Year 5
Year 6
Year 7
Year 8
Year 9
Year 10
Year 11
Year 12
Year 13
Year 14
Year 15
Year 16
Year 17

Exponential smoothing

0.5
Demand
420031
541025
618737
606956
732779
909775
1107158
1262851
1406242
1648475
3571036
2640341
2198216
2394886
2524330
2609070
2882575

Next period 2707966.86

Forecasts and Error Analysis


Forecast Error
Absolute
420031
0
0
420031
120994
120994
480528
138209
138209
549632.5 57323.5 57323.5
578294.3 154484.8 154484.8
655536.6 254238.4 254238.4
782655.8 324502.2 324502.2
944906.9 317944.1 317944.1
1103879
302363
302363
1255060 393414.5 393414.5
1451768 2119268 2119268
2511402 128939.1 128939.1
2575871 -377655.4 377655.4
2387044 7842.283 7842.283
2390965 133365.1 133365.1
2457647 151422.6 151422.6
2533359 349216.3 349216.3
Total
4575872 5331183
Average
269168.9
313599
Bias
MAD
SE

Squared

Abs Pct Err


0
0
14639548036 0.223638
19101727681 0.223373
3285983652 0.094444
23865537983
0.21082
64637151323 0.279452
1.05302E+11 0.293095
1.01088E+11 0.251767
91423412116 0.215015
1.54775E+11 0.238654
4.4913E+12
0.59346
16625299467 0.048834
1.42624E+11 0.171801
61501398.18 0.003275
17786260929 0.052832
22928794911 0.058037
1.21952E+11 0.121147
5.39139E+12 3.079644
3.17141E+11 0.181156
MSE
MAPE
599521.6942

Forecasting
4000000
3500000
3000000

Value

2500000
2000000
1500000
1000000
500000
0
1

8
Time

420031

420031

Forecasting

9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Time
420031

AEON
Forecasting

Alpha
Data
Period
Year 1
Year 2
Year 3
Year 4
Year 5
Year 6
Year 7
Year 8
Year 9
Year 10
Year 11
Year 12
Year 13
Year 14
Year 15
Year 16
Year 17

Exponential smoothing

0.7
Demand
420031
541025
618737
606956
732779
909775
1107158
1262851
1406242
1648475
3571036
2640341
2198216
2394886
2524330
2609070
2882575

Next period 2789121.16

Forecasts and Error Analysis


Forecast Error
Absolute
420031
0
0
420031
120994
120994
504726.8 114010.2 114010.2
584533.9 22422.06 22422.06
600229.4 132549.6 132549.6
693014.1 216760.9 216760.9
844746.7 262411.3 262411.3
1028435 234416.4 234416.4
1192526 213715.9 213715.9
1342127 306347.8 306347.8
1556571 2014465 2014465
2966696 -326355.4 326355.4
2738248 -540031.6 540031.6
2360225 34660.51 34660.51
2384488 139842.2 139842.2
2482377 126692.6 126692.6
2571062 311512.8 311512.8
Total
3384415 5117189
Average
199083.2 301011.1
Bias
MAD
SE

Squared
0
14639548036
12998325704
502748774.6
17569401232
46985281439
68859672324
54951039065
45674491857
93848958740
4.05807E+12
1.06508E+11
2.91634E+11
1201351229
19555828089
16051026616
97040220749
4.94609E+12
2.90946E+11
MSE
574229.3657

Abs Pct Err


0
0.223638
0.184263
0.036942
0.180886
0.238258
0.237013
0.185625
0.151977
0.185837
0.564112
0.123604
0.245668
0.014473
0.055398
0.048559
0.108068
2.784319
0.163783
MAPE

4000000
3500000
3000000

Value

2500000
2000000
1500000
1000000
500000
0
1

Forecasting

9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Time
420031

420031

AEON
Forecasting

Alpha
Beta
Data
Period
Year 1
Year 2
Year 3
Year 4
Year 5
Year 6
Year 7
Year 8
Year 9
Year 10
Year 11
Year 12
Year 13
Year 14
Year 15
Year 16
Year 17

Trend adjusted exponential smoothing

0.3
0.4
Demand
420031
541025
618737
606956
732779
909775
1107158
1262851
1406242
1648475
3571036
2640341
2198216
2394886
2524330
2609070
2882575
Next period

Forecasts and Error Analysis


Smoothed Forecast,
Smoothed
Ft Trend, Forecast
Tt
Including
FITt
Error Trend,
Absolute
420031
420031
456329.2
515215
565323.5
643142.2
761470.5
921311.7
1102210
1291133
1509862
2256374
2657484
2803566
2892182
2933371
2938541
2984674
Total
Average

-2.32831E-11
14519.28
32265.9024
39402.90979
54769.22579
80192.8599
112052.2206
139590.6666
159323.6188
183085.8111
408456.3684
405517.5943
301743.3411
216492.5629
146371.1906
89890.48719
72387.7363

420031
420031
470848.5
547480.9
604726.4
697911.4
841663.3
1033364
1241801
1450457
1692948
2664831
3063001
3105309
3108675
3079743
3028431
3057062

0
120994
162407.8
91740.96
167455.5
266632.8
345687.5
341539.3
304031.9
357341.9
2061174
383966.6
-459267.8
-408679.8
-367852.2
-324301.3
-55965.77

0
120994
162407.8
91740.96
167455.5
266632.8
345687.5
341539.3
304031.9
357341.9
2061174
383966.6
459267.8
408679.8
367852.2
324301.3
55965.77

2986905 6219039
175700.3 365825.8
Bias
MAD
SE

Forecasting
4000000

0
14639548036
26376293501
8416404476
28041358922
71093073142
1.195E+11
1.16649E+11
92435417536
1.27693E+11
4.24844E+12
1.4743E+11
2.10927E+11
1.67019E+11
1.35315E+11
1.05171E+11
3132167433

Abs Pct Err


0
0.223638
0.262483
0.151149
0.228521
0.293076
0.31223
0.270451
0.216202
0.216771
0.577192
0.145423
0.208928
0.170647
0.145723
0.124298
0.019415

5.62228E+12 3.566146
3.30722E+11 0.209773
MSE
MAPE
612224.1911

3500000
3000000
2500000
Value

Squared

2000000
1500000
1000000
500000
0
1

Forecasts and Error Analy

Forecasting

9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Time
Forecasts and Error Analysis

AEON
Forecasting

Alpha
Beta
Data
Period
Year 1
Year 2
Year 3
Year 4
Year 5
Year 6
Year 7
Year 8
Year 9
Year 10
Year 11
Year 12
Year 13
Year 14
Year 15
Year 16
Year 17

Trend adjusted exponential smoothing

0.5
0.6
Demand
420031
541025
618737
606956
732779
909775
1107158
1262851
1406242
1648475
3571036
2640341
2198216
2394886
2524330
2609070
2882575
Next period

Forecasts and Error Analysis


Smoothed Forecast,
Smoothed
Ft Trend,
Forecast
Tt Including
FITt
Error Trend,
Absolute
420031
420031
480528
567781.6
620804.5
706072.9
845216.9
1032848
1226803
1406290
1617136
2693241
3029285
2859561
2674630
2562964
2537910
2683484
Total
Average

0
36298.2
66871.44
58562.33
74585.97
113320.8
157906.9
179535.8
179506.8
198310.1
724987.1
491620.9
94814.08
-73032.57
-96212.93
-53517.23
65937.29

420031
420031
516826.2
634653
679366.8
780658.9
958537.8
1190755
1406339
1585797
1815446
3418228
3520906
2954375
2601598
2466751
2484393
2749421

0
120994
138209
39174.4
111974.5
203702.1
261941.1
230003.1
179439.1
242184.7
1953900
-52900.09
-831068.6
-464674.8
-150300.4
46106.08
344664.5

0
120994
138209
39174.4
111974.5
203702.1
261941.1
230003.1
179439.1
242184.7
1953900
52900.09
831068.6
464674.8
150300.4
46106.08
344664.5

2373349 5371236
139608.7 315955.1
Bias
MAD
SE

Forecasting
4000000

0
14639548036
19101727681
1534633615
12538284171
41494535767
68613114304
52901436792
32198398694
58653421800
3.81773E+12
2798419450
6.90675E+11
2.15923E+11
22590215917
2125770397
1.18794E+11

Abs Pct Err


0
0.223638
0.223373
0.064542
0.152808
0.223904
0.236589
0.18213
0.127602
0.146914
0.547152
0.020035
0.378065
0.194028
0.059541
0.017671
0.119568

5.17231E+12 2.917561
3.04253E+11 0.171621
MSE
MAPE
587214.0901

3500000
3000000
2500000
Value

Squared

2000000
1500000
1000000
500000
0
1

9 10 11

Time
Forecasts and Error Analysis

11 12 13 14 15 16

and Error Analysis

AEON
Forecasting

Alpha
Beta
Data
Period
Year 1
Year 2
Year 3
Year 4
Year 5
Year 6
Year 7
Year 8
Year 9
Year 10
Year 11
Year 12
Year 13
Year 14
Year 15
Year 16
Year 17

Trend adjusted exponential smoothing

0.7
0.8
Demand
420031
541025
618737
606956
732779
909775
1107158
1262851
1406242
1648475
3571036
2640341
2198216
2394886
2524330
2609070
2882575
Next period

Forecasts and Error Analysis


Smoothed Forecast,
Smoothed
Ft Trend,
Forecast
Tt Including
FITt
Error Trend,Absolute
420031
420031
0
504726.8 67756.64
604860.9 93658.63
634425.1 42383.04
715987.7 73726.74
873756.8 140960.6
1079426 192727.3
1265642 187518.1
1420317 161244.2
1628401 198715.7
3047860 1175311
3115190 288925.9
2559986
-386378
2328503 -262462.3
2386843 -5820.054
2540656 121886.2
2816565 245104.6
Total
Average

420031
0
420031
120994
572483.4 114010.2
698519.6 2095.068
676808.1 98353.93
789714.5 193787.3
1014717 233401.2
1272153 183425.2
1453160 140600.3
1581561 228157.7
1827117 1942635
4223171 -407519.2
3404116 -916973.9
2173608 -165099.9
2066040 195827.4
2381023 222226.9
2662542 341919.1
3061670
2527840
148696.5
Bias
MAD
SE

0
120994
114010.2
2095.068
98353.93032
193787.268
233401.1593
183425.1574
140600.3487
228157.6708
1942635.052
407519.2029
916973.9257
165099.9441
195827.419
222226.9133
341919.0902
5507026.35
323942.7265

Forecasting

0
14639548036
12998325704
4389309.925
9673495609
37553505253
54476101140
33644788380
19768458062
52055922757
3.77383E+12
1.66072E+11
8.40841E+11
27257991555
38348378050
49384801011
1.16909E+11

Abs Pct Err


0
0.223638
0.184263
0.003452
0.13422
0.213006
0.210811
0.145247
0.099983
0.138405
0.543998
0.154343
0.417145
0.068939
0.077576
0.085175
0.118616

5.24746E+12 2.818816
3.08674E+11 0.165813
MSE
MAPE
591464.7577

4000000
3500000
3000000
2500000
Value

Squared

2000000
1500000
1000000
500000
0
1 2 3 4

Forecasts and Erro

Forecasting

4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Time
Forecasts and Error Analysis

AEON
Forecasting

Alpha
Beta
Data
Period
Year 1
Year 2
Year 3
Year 4
Year 5
Year 6
Year 7
Year 8
Year 9
Year 10
Year 11
Year 12
Year 13
Year 14
Year 15
Year 16
Year 17

Trend adjusted exponential smoothing

0.9
1
Demand
420031
541025
618737
606956
732779
909775
1107158
1262851
1406242
1648475
3571036
2640341
2198216
2394886
2524330
2609070
2882575
Next period

Forecasts and Error Analysis


Smoothed Forecast,
SmoothedFtTrend,
Forecast
Tt Including
FITt
Error Trend,Absolute
420031
420031
528925.6
620645.3
617496.9
720935.9
901235
1104596
1267362
1408631
1638617
3400793
2892604
2216836
2309504
2512114
2619635
2867033
Total
Average

0
108894.6
91719.72
-3148.416
103439.04
180299.05
203360.61
162765.92
141269.02
229986.91
1762175.4
-508189.1
-675767.9
92668.339
202610.05
107521.18
247397.73

420031
420031
637820.2
712365.04
614348.49
824374.99
1081534
1307956.2
1430127.4
1549899.6
1868604.4
5162968.2
2384414.6
1541068
2402172.5
2714724.3
2727156.6
3114430.9

0
120994
89811.4
-13689.32
115282.1
188839.05
205923
158255.4
138880.48
239844.46
1932418.5
-760451.8
-694387.7
178050.14
214825.8
96955.746
262939.57

0
120994
89811.4
13689.32
115282.1
188839.05
205923
158255.4
138880.48
239844.46
1932418.5
760451.84
694387.72
178050.14
214825.8
96955.746
262939.57

2474490.8 5411548.6
145558.28 318326.39
Bias
MAD
SE

Forecasting
4000000

0
14639548036
8066087570
187397482.1
13289961658
35660187258
42404282193
25044770049
19287787430
57525363211
3.73424E+12
5.78287E+11
4.82174E+11
31701852123
46150124364
9400416697
69137217057

Abs Pct Err


0
0.223638
0.145153
0.022554
0.157322
0.207567
0.185992
0.125316
0.09876
0.145495
0.541137
0.288013
0.315887
0.074346
0.085102
0.037161
0.091217

5.1672E+12 2.744659
3.03953E+11 0.161451
MSE
MAPE
586924.0568

3500000
3000000
2500000
Value

Squared

2000000
1500000
1000000
500000
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Forecasts and Error Ana

Forecasting

6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Time
Forecasts and Error Analysis

Forecasting

Data
Period
Year 1
Year 2
Year 3
Year 4
Year 5
Year 6
Year 7
Year 8
Year 9
Year 10
Year 11
Year 12
Year 13
Year 14
Year 15
Year 16
Year 17

Demand (y)

420,031
541,025
618,737
606,956
732,779
909,775
1,107,158
1,262,851
1,406,242
1,648,475
3,571,036
2,640,341
2,198,216
2,394,886
2,524,330
2,609,070
2,882,575

Intercept
Slope

87101.18382
173815.4436

Next period

3215779.169

Regression/Trend analysis

Period(x)
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17

Forecasts and Error Analysis


Forecast
Error
Absolute
260916.63 159114.37 159114.37
434732.07 106292.93 106292.93
608547.51 10189.485 10189.485
782362.96
-175407 175406.96
956178.4 -223399.4 223399.4
1129993.8 -220218.8 220218.85
1303809.3 -196651.3 196651.29
1477624.7 -214773.7 214773.73
1651440.2 -245198.2 245198.18
1825255.6 -176780.6 176780.62
1999071.1 1571964.9 1571964.9
2172886.5 467454.49 467454.49
2346702
-148486 148485.95
2520517.4 -125631.4 125631.39
2694332.8 -170002.8 170002.84
2868148.3 -259078.3 259078.28
3041963.7 -159388.7 159388.73
Total
-4.66E-10 4630032.4
Average
-2.74E-11 272354.85
Bias
MAD
SE

Squared
Abs Pct Err
2.532E+10
37.88%
1.13E+10
19.65%
103825611
01.65%
3.077E+10
28.90%
4.991E+10
30.49%
4.85E+10
24.21%
3.867E+10
17.76%
4.613E+10
17.01%
6.012E+10
17.44%
3.125E+10
10.72%
2.471E+12
44.02%
2.185E+11
17.70%
2.205E+10
06.75%
1.578E+10
05.25%
2.89E+10
06.73%
6.712E+10
09.93%
2.54E+10
05.53%
3.191E+12
301.61%
1.877E+11
17.74%
MSE
MAPE
461223.71

18
Correlation 0.8912714
4,000,000
3,000,000
2,000,000
1,000,000
0
0

Regression

Series1

10

Linear (Series1)

15

20