Richard Suttmeier is the Chief Market Strategist at www.ValuEngine.com. ValuEngine is a fundamentally-based quant research firm in Melbourne, FL.

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November 18, 2013 Round numbers near, 16,000 Dow, 1800 S&P 500 and 4000 Nasdaq

The rise in the yield on the US Treasury 10-Year reached 2.792% on Tuesday vs. my monthly value level at 2.829% and the 50-day SMA at 2.683%. The rise in yield on the US Treasury 30-Year bond reached 3.887% vs. its year to date high at 3.94% set on Aug. 22. This is above my monthly pivot at 3.814% with the 50-day SMA at 3.736%. The weekly chart favors a higher 10-Year yield with its fiveweek MMA at 2.668%. The weekly chart favors higher 30-year yield with its five-week MMA at 3.736%. 10-Year Note (2.703) Daily, monthly and semiannual value levels are 2.786, 2.829 and 3.227 with weekly, annual, quarterly and annual risky levels at 2.557, 2.476, 2.252 and 1.981. 30-Year Bond (3.789) Daily and semiannual value levels are 3.893 and 4.807 with a monthly pivot at 3.814 and weekly, quarterly and annual risky levels at 3.682, 3.487 and 3.014. Comex gold has a negative but oversold daily chart with its 50-day SMA at $1317.9 and the 200-day SMA at $1406.3. The weekly chart is negative with its five-week MMA at $1310.9. Crude oil has a negative but oversold daily chart with the 200-day SMA at $98.61. The weekly chart is negative but oversold with its five-week MMA at $98.56 and the 200-week SMA at $91.70. The euro vs. the dollar has a neutral daily chart with its 50-day and 200-day SMAs at 1.3528 and 1.3216. The weekly chart is neutral with its five-week MMA at 1.3495 and 200-week SMA at 1.3314. Comex Gold ($1288.5) Daily and monthly value levels are $1267.1 and $1171.8 with a weekly pivot at $1288.9 and quarterly and annual risky levels at $1435.6, $1599.9 and $1852.1. Nymex Crude Oil ($93.65) My weekly value level is are $91.41 with a daily pivot at $94.73 and monthly, semiannual, quarterly and annual risky levels at $105.04, $109.84, $114.36 and $115.23. The Euro (1.3494) Annual, quarterly and semiannual value levels are 1.3257, 1.2805, 1.2756 and 1.2477 with daily and monthly pivots at 1.3427 and 1.3428 and weekly and annual risky levels at 1.3581 and 1.4295. Dow Industrials, the S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow Transports reached new highs on Friday, but the Russell 2000 did not. The Dow Industrial Average has a positive but overbought daily chart with the 50-day SMA at 15,411.89 and its Nov. 15 all-time high at 15,962.98. The S&P 500 has a positive but overbought daily chart with its 50-day SMA at 1723.84 and its Nov. 15 all-time high at 1798.22. The Nasdaq has a positive daily chart with its 50-day SMA at 3836.49 and its Nov. 15 multi-year high at 3985.97. The Dow Transportation Average has a positive but overbought daily chart with its 50-day SMA at 6786.32 and its Nov. 15 all-time high at 7211.81. The Russell 2000 has a positive daily chart

with its 50-day SMA at 1086.24 and its Oct. 30 all-time high at 1123.26. The weekly chart for Dow Industrials is positive but overbought with its five-week MMA at 15,551.34. The weekly chart for the S&P 500 is positive but overbought with its five-week MMA at 1743.51. The weekly chart for the Nasdaq is positive but overbought with its five-week MMA at 3871.04. The weekly chart for Dow Transports is positive but overbought with its five-week MMA at 6889.50. The weekly chart for the Russell 2000 is positive but overbought with its five-week MMA at 1092.41. All five major averages have positive but overbought weekly charts in a market that is extremely overvalued fundamentally. This weeks value levels are 15,624 Dow Industrials, 1782.6 S&P 500 and 7126 Dow Transports with weekly risky levels at 4015 Nasdaq and 1126.52 Russell 2000. Semiannual or quarterly pivots are 1743.5 S&P 500, 3759 Nasdaq, 7104 and 7205 Dow Transports and 1089.42 Russell 2000. Monthly, quarterly and semiannual risky levels are 16,162, 16,775 and 16,490 Dow Industrials, 1802 and 1853.8 S&P 500, 4014 and 4025 Nasdaq and 1133.14 and 1163.21 Russell 2000. If the stock bubble pops the risk is to my annual pivots / value levels at 12,696 Dow Industrials, 1348.3 S&P 500, 2806 Nasdaq, 5469 Dow Transports, and 809.54 Russell 2000. Daily Dow: (15,962) Weekly, semiannual and annual value levels are 15,624, 14,724 and 12,696 with the Nov. 15 all-time high at 15,962.98, and daily, monthly, semiannual and quarterly risky levels at 15,995, 16,162, 16,490 and 16,775. S&P 500 (1798.2) Daily, weekly, semiannual and annual value levels are 1791.6, 1782.6, 1743.5, 1606.9, 1400.7 and 1348.3 with the Nov. 15 all-time high at 1798.22, and monthly and quarterly risky levels at 1802.0 and 1853.8. NASDAQ (3986) Daily, semiannual and annual value levels are 3940, 3759, 3668 and 2806 with the Nov. 15 multi-year high at 3985.97, and weekly, monthly and quarterly risky levels at 4015, 4014 and 4025. NASDAQ 100 (NDX) (3423) Daily, semiannual and annual value levels are 3382, 3304 and 2463 with the Nov. 15 multi-year high at 3422.58, and monthly, weekly and quarterly risky levels at 3425, 3450 and 3477. Dow Transports (7211) Semiannual, daily, weekly, monthly and annual value levels are 7104, 7103, 7126, 6927, 5925 and 5469 with a quarterly pivot at 7205 and the Nov. 15 all-time high at 7211.61. Russell 2000 (1116.20) Daily, semiannual and annual value levels are 1104.90, 1089.42, 860.25 and 809.54 with the Oct. 30 all time high at 1123.26, and weekly, monthly and quarterly risky levels at 1126.52, 1133.14 and 1163.21. The SOX (508.94) Daily and annual value levels are 504.95 and 338.03 with a weekly pivot at 509.72, the Oct. 31 multi-year high at 510.17, and monthly, quarterly and semiannual risky levels at 519.72, 514.87 and 533.56. Dow Utilities: (506.91) My semiannual value level is 481.92 with a daily pivot at 505.25, and weekly, monthly, quarterly, semiannual and annual risky levels at 509.65, 514.62, 520.55, 523.33 and 540.37. To learn more about ValuEngine check out www.ValuEngine.com. Any comments or questions contact me at RSuttmeier@gmail.com.