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Global Warming threatens Plant Diversity

Initiators of climate change are getting away with it In the coming decades, climate change is set to produce worldwide changes in the living conditions for plants, whereby major regional differences may be expected to occur. hus today!s cool, moist regions could in future provide habitats for additional species, and in arid and hot regions the climatic prere"uisites for a high degree of plant diversity will deteriorate. his is the conclusion reached in a new study by scientists at the #niversities of $onn, G%ttingen and &ale, and published in the Proceedings of the 'oyal (ociety )ondon. he study was funded by the *cademy of (ciences and )iterature +ain, and the German -ederal +inistry for .ducation and 'esearch /$+$-0. Dr. Jan enning !ommer of "onn #niversity$s %ees Institute for "iodiversity of Plants asserts& 'climate change could bring great confusion to the e(isting pattern of plant diversity& with scarcely predictable conse)uences for our ecosystems and man*ind+. ,he potential impact of climate change on global plant diversity has now& for the first time& been )uantified and modeled on a regional basis. ,he researchers have investigated the numbers of plant species to be found in different regions under current climatic conditions& and the subse)uent interrelationship they uncovered has now been applied to -. different climate change scenarios for the year /-00. owever& the study does not permit any predictions regarding the degree to which the biodiversity of any given region will& in fact& adapt to new conditions or& in other words& whether additional species will migrate into favoured regions& or whether disadvantaged areas will in reality suffer mass losses of species. ',hat would be fortune-telling. ,he adaptability of species and their interactions in the ecosystem can& li*e human landuse& e(ert great influence on their distribution. ,his is a field about which we still *now far too little+& !ommer e(plains. %evertheless& the published results do provide an important pointer to the li*elihood of the scales of immigration or losses to be e(pected in given areas. Globalisation in the Plant 1ingdom It is possible that the worst effects of global warming on plant species numbers could be felt in the tropical 1ma2onian rain forests in !outh 1merica. 3or 4ermany and other temperate regions worldwide& on the other hand& scientists are e(pecting future climatic conditions which will promote the provision of habitat space for an increased number of species. '"ut this can scarcely be described as a gain as the intensified redistribution of plant species will promote worldwide uniformity in the regional composition of species at the e(pense of uni)ue species which have adapted to special habitat conditions+& says

!ommer. 1nd as a result& globalisation would also come to the plant *ingdom. In their study& the researchers have emphasised the clear division of our planet into two parts as regards the impact of climate change on plant diversity. '1dditional capacity for plants species richness could be created everywhere where today cool and moist climatic conditions prevail+& says Dr. olger 5reft& the young research scientist from "onn and co-author of the study& who has meanwhile assumed an appointment as 6unior professor at 47ttingen #niversity.' 8n the other hand& in areas which today have a hot tropical or sub-tropical climate the prere)uisites for high species numbers will deteriorate+. he main 2riginators of 3limate 3hange less affected ,his division also has a political dimension: favoured areas coincide largely with the industrialised nations& who are responsible for the ma6ority of global warming due to their high amount of greenhouse gas emissions. ,he study also points clearly to the conse)uences of a half-hearted climate policy. !hould the global temperature rise by -..9: with respect to the year /000& then the proportion of favoured and disadvantaged regions in terms of species richness would still remain in balance. ';ven if the climate protection goals agreed in :openhagen are achieved& we would still tend to be heading for a rise in temperature of up to <9:+& says !ommer. In this case& the pro6ected losses of capacity for plant species richness would considerably e(ceed possible gains in other regions. 'Politicians throughout the world should be paying greater attention to the impact of climate change on biodiversity as this is the basis of our human e(istence+& demands Professor Dr. =ilhelm "arthlott& Director of the %ees Institute and co-author of the study. e and his study group have been investigating global plant diversity for -> years. "arthlott welcomes the fact that the #nited %ations has declared /0-0 to be the year of biodiversity. ',his was an important signal?'. :ontact: Dr. Jan enning !ommer %ees Institute for "iodiversity of Plants #niversity of "onn& 4ermany