Coming Monday: The first part of a four-part series on transport infrastructure development in East Africa

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Threats (ituational A)areness and *erspective

Security Weekly +E,NE(,A- A.'.(T !! !""/ - #$:"0 d Print 1 Te2t (i3e 4

(urveillance
By Fred Burton and Scott Stewart 5n last )ee67s Terrorism 5ntelligence 8eport )e said .9(9 counterterrorism sources remain concerned an attac6 )ill occur on .9(9 soil in the ne2t fe) )ee6s9 Although )e are s6eptical of these reports al :aeda and other ;ihadists do retain the a<ility -- and the <urning desire -- to conduct tactical stri6es )ithin the .nited (tates9 One thing )e did not say last )ee6 ho)ever )as that )e pu<lish such reports not to frighten readers <ut to impress upon them the need for preparedness )hich does not mean paranoia9 =ear and paranoia in fact are counterproductive to good personal and national security9 As such )e have attempted over the past fe) years to place )hat )e consider hyped threats into the proper perspective9 To this end )e have addressed threats such as al :aeda7s chemical and <iological )eapons capa<ilities reports of a looming >American ?iroshima> nuclear attac6 against the .nited (tates the dirty <om< threat the smo6y <om< threat and the threat of so-called >mu<ta66ar devices> among others9 Though some threats are indeed hyped the )orld nonetheless remains a dangerous place9 .ndou<tedly at this very moment some people are see6ing )ays to carry out attac6s against targets in the .nited (tates9 Moreover terrorism attac6s are not the only threat -- far more people are victimi3ed <y common criminals9 ,oes this reality mean that people need to live in constant fear and paranoia@ Not at all9 5f people do live that )ay those )ho see6 to terrori3e them have )on9 ?o)ever <y ta6ing a fe) relatively simple precautions and ad;usting their mindsets people can live less-stressful lives during these uncertain times9 One of the 6eys to personal preparedness and protection is to have a contingency plan in place in the event of an attac6 or other ma;or emergency9 The second element is practicing situational a)areness9 The *roper (tate of Mind (ituational a)areness is the process of recogni3ing a threat at an early stage and ta6ing measures to avoid it9 Aeing o<servant of one7s surroundings and identifying potential threats and dangerous situations is more of an attitude or mindset than it is a hard s6ill9 Aecause of this situational a)areness is not ;ust a process that can <e practiced <y highly trained government agents or speciali3ed corporate security countersurveillance teams -- it can <e adopted and employed <y anyone9 An important element of this mindset is first coming to the reali3ation that a threat e2ists9 5gnorance or denial of a threat -- or completely tuning out to one7s surroundings )hile in a pu<lic place -- ma6es a person7s chances of Buic6ly recogni3ing the threat and avoiding it slim to none9 This is )hy apathy denial and complacency are so deadly9 An e2ample is the case of Terry Anderson the Associated *ress <ureau chief in Ce<anon )ho )as 6idnapped March #0 #D8&9 The day <efore his a<duction Anderson )as driving in Aeirut traffic )hen a car pulled in front of his and nearly <loc6ed him in9 ,ue to the traffic situation and undou<tedly a <it of luc6 Anderson )as a<le to avoid )hat he thought )as an automo<ile accident -- even though events li6e these can <e hallmar6s of pre-operational planning9 The ne2t day Anderson7s luc6 ran out as the same vehicle successfully <loc6ed his vehicle in the same spot9 Anderson )as pulled from his vehicle at gunpoint -- and held hostage for si2 years and nine months9 Clearly fe) of us are living in the type of civil )ar conditions that Anderson faced in #D8& Aeirut9 Nonetheless average citi3ens face all 6inds of threats today -- from common thieves and assailants to criminals and mentally distur<ed individuals )ho aim to conduct violent acts in the school mall or )or6place to militants )anting to carry out large-scale attac6s9 (hould an attac6 occur then a person )ith a complacent or apathetic mindset )ill <e ta6en completely <y surprise and could free3e up in shoc6 and denial as their minds are forced to Buic6ly ad;ust to a ne)ly recogni3ed and unforeseen situational reality9 That person is in no condition to react flee or resist9 ,enial and complacency ho)ever are not the only ha3ardous states of mind9 As mentioned a<ove paranoia and

and Countersurveillance Timeline

NE+E8 F E Vie) =ull Timeline

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The 7Cone +olf7 ,isconnect

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The *roact ive Tool of *rot ect ive 5nt elligence

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Threats (ituational A)areness and *erspective

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(urveillance in t he 5nformation Age

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The (ecret s of Count ersurveillance

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The Challenge of t he Cone +olf

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(elf-*rot ect ion: AcBuiring -- and *ract icing -- t he Necessary (6ills

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Turning t he Ta<les on (urveillant s

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*hysical (urveillance: The Art of Alending 5n

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*hysical (urveillance: Tailing (omeone on t he Move

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The (pread of Technological (urveillance

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o<sessive concern a<out one7s safety and security can <e ;ust as dangerous9 There are times )hen it is important to <e on heightened alert -- a )oman )al6ing alone in a dar6 par6ing lot is one e2ample -- <ut people are simply not designed to operate in a state of heightened a)areness for e2tended periods of time9 The <ody7s >flight or fight> response is helpful in a sudden emergency <ut a constant stream of adrenalin and stress leads to mental and physical <urnout9 5t is very hard for people to <e a)are of their surroundings )hen they are completely fried9 (ituational a)areness then is <est practiced at a <alanced level referred to as >rela2ed a)areness > a state of mind that can <e maintained indefinitely )ithout all the stress associated )ith <eing on constant alert9 8ela2ed a)areness is not tiring and allo)s people to en;oy life )hile paying attention to their surroundings9 +hen people are in a state of rela2ed a)areness it is far easier to ma6e the transition to a state of heightened a)areness than it is to ;ump all the )ay from complacency to heightened a)areness9 (o if something out of the ordinary occurs those practicing rela2ed a)areness can heighten their a)areness )hile they attempt to determine )hether the anomaly is indeed a threat9 5f it is they can ta6e action to avoid itI if it is not they can stand do)n and return to a state of rela2ed a)areness9 The Telltale (igns +hat are )e loo6ing for )hile )e are in a state of rela2ed a)areness@ Essentially the same things )e discussed )hen )e descri<ed )hat <ad surveillance loo6s li6e9 5t is important to remem<er that almost every criminal act from a purse-snatching to a terrorist <om<ing involves some degree of pre-operational surveillance and that criminals are vulnera<le to detection during that time9 This is <ecause criminals even militants planning terrorist attac6s often are Buite sloppy )hen they are casing their intended targets9 They have <een a<le to get a)ay )ith their sloppy practices for so long <ecause most people simply do not loo6 for them9 On the positive side ho)ever that also means that people )ho are loo6ing can spot them fairly easily9 The .9(9 government uses the acronym TE,, to illustrate the principles one can use to identify surveillance <ut these same principles also can <e used to identify criminal threats9 TE,, stands for Time Environment ,istance and ,emeanor9 5n other )ords if a person sees someone repeatedly over time in different environments and over distance or one )ho displays poor demeanor then that person can assume he or she is under surveillance9 5f a person is the specific target of a planned attac6 he or she might <e e2posed to the time environment and distance elements of TE,, <ut if the su<)ay car the person is riding in or the <uilding )here the person )or6s is the target he or she might only have the element of demeanor to 6ey on9 This also is true in the case of criminals )ho <ehave li6e >am<ush predators> and lur6 in an area )aiting for a victim9 Aecause their attac6 cycle is e2tremely condensed the most important element to )atch for is demeanor9 Ay poor demeanor )e simply mean a person is acting unnaturally9 This <ehavior can loo6 <latantly suspicious such as someone )ho is lur6ing andJor has no reason for <eing )here he is or for doing )hat he is doing9 (ometimes ho)ever poor demeanor can <e more su<tle encompassing almost impercepti<le <ehaviors that the target senses more than o<serves9 Other givea)ays include moving )hen the target moves communicating )hen the target moves avoiding eye contact )ith the target ma6ing sudden turns or stops or even using hand signals to communicate )ith other mem<ers of a surveillance team9 5n the terrorism realm e2hi<iting poor demeanor also can include )earing unseasona<ly )arm clothing such as trench coats in the summerI displaying odd <ulges under clothing or )ires protruding from clothingI unnaturally s)eating mum<ling or fidgetingI or attempting to avoid security personnel9 5n addition according to some reports suicide <om<ers often e2hi<it an intense stare as they approach the final stages of their mission9 They seem to have tunnel vision <eing a<le to focus only on their intended target9 *erspective +e have seen no hard intelligence that supports the assertions that a ;ihadist attac6 )ill occur in the ne2t fe) )ee6s and are some)hat s6eptical a<out such reports9 8egardless of )hether our .9(9 counterterrorism sources are correct this time though the )orld remains a dangerous place9 Al :aeda grassroots ;ihadists and domestic militants of several different political persuasions have the desire and capa<ility to conduct attac6s9 Mean)hile criminals and mentally distur<ed individuals such as the Virginia Tech shooter appear to <e getting more violent every day9 5n the <ig picture violence and terrorism have al)ays <een a part of the human condition9 The Chinese <uilt the 'reat +all for a reason other than tourism9 Today7s >terrorists> are far less dangerous to society as a )hole than )ere the Vi6ing <erser6ers and <ar<arian tri<es )ho terrori3ed Europe for centuries and the ragtag collection of men )ho have s)orn allegiance to Osama <in Caden pose far less of a threat to +estern civili3ation than the large <attle-hardened army A<dul 8ahman al-'hafiBi led into the heart of =rance in /$!9 Terrorist attac6s are designed to have a psychological impact that far out)eighs the actual physical damage caused <y the attac6 itself9 ,enying the perpetrators this multiplication effect -- as the Aritish did after the Guly !""& su<)ay <om<ings -- prevents them from accomplishing their greater goals9 Therefore people should prepare plan and practice rela2ed a)areness -- and not let paranoia and the fear of terrorism and crime ro< them of the ;oy of life9

The Terrorist Att ac6 Cycle: Operat ional *lanning

OC,E8

8ECATE, CONTENT

A *ract ical 'uide t o (it uat ional A)areness

A *rimer on (it uat ional A)areness

Kidnapping: An Avoida<le ,anger

8ECATE, (5T.AT5ON 8E*O8T(

Algeria: Militants (ay Army Attac6 5n;ures ! ?ostages
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Kenya: Authorities .ncover *lan =or Terrorist Attac6

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5srael: Aus E2plosion 5n Tel Aviv 5s A Terrorist Attac6 *olice (ay

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