INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENERGY RESEARCH Int. J. Energy Res.

2007; 31:192203 Published online 9 August 2006 in Wiley InterScience (www.interscience.wiley.com) DOI: 10.1002/er.1244

CO2 benet from the increasing percentage of diesel passenger cars in Sweden
Efthimios Zervas1,*,y and Christos Lazarou2,z
2 1 CPERI/CERTH, 6th KM. Charilaou, Thermi Road, P.O. Box 361 GR - 570 01, Thermi, Thessaloniki, Greece Institut d Administration des Entreprises, Universite des Sciences et Technologies de Lille, 104, avenue du Peuple Belge, F-59043 Lille cedex, France

SUMMARY Control of CO2 emissions is a major environmental issue in most countries. The Swedish car market shows remarkably low new Diesel passenger car registrations compared to the average European Union car market. Therefore, a simple way to decrease CO2 emissions from the transport sector in Sweden would be the replacement of gasoline by Diesel passenger cars, which emit less CO2. The combined eects of probable changes in Diesel and gasoline future fuel consumption, new passenger car sales and market segmentation have been evaluated for dierent Diesel passenger cars penetrations. The results show a benet in CO2 emissions of about 2.8% with 30% Diesel penetration; if Diesel penetration reaches 50%, the benet attains 7.5%. Future rises of CO2 emissions caused by higher new passenger car registrations or unfavourable market segmentation could be at least partially counterbalanced by the introduction of more Diesel passenger cars. Copyright # 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
KEY WORDS:

carbon dioxide; diesel; gasoline; Sweden; passenger cars

1. INTRODUCTION Energy-related CO2 emissions, resulting from burning fossil fuels, represent the major part of recent human-made greenhouse gas emissions. Emissions from the transport sector are an anton, 1998; Kram et al., 2000) and important source of CO2 in many countries (Ellis and Tre the authorities seek to stabilize or decrease these emissions according to international agreements, such as the Kyoto protocol (United Nations, 1997). Gasoline and Diesel are the two most common types of engines in passenger cars (PCs). Because the Diesel combustion process is more ecient than gasoline, and because Diesel fuel

*Correspondence to: Efthimios Zervas, CPERI/CERTH, 6th KM. Charilaou, Thermi Road, P.O. Box 361 GR - 570 01, Thermi, Thessaloniki, Greece. y E-mail: efzervas@cperi.certh.gr z Present address: Griponisioti 7, GR-32100 Livadia. Received 14 December 2005 Revised 9 May 2006 Accepted 28 June 2006

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contains more energy per unit volume, Diesel engines usually deliver better fuel economy and emit less CO2 emissions than gasoline engines. As a consequence, a simple but ecient way to reduce the CO2 emissions caused by the transport sector in a country, would be to increase the Diesel market penetration (Sullivan et al., 2004; Zervas and Bikas, 2005). Previsions for future CO2 emissions in relation with the number of Diesel PCs should be more accurate using a salesweighted approach, as this takes into account the actual market conditions in each country. Although Diesel market penetration is relatively high in most European Union (EU) countries, and even reaches 60% in the case of Austria and Belgium (Internet site of ACEA, Internet site of Eurostat), Diesel market share still remains less than 7% in Sweden (Internet site of Eurostat, Internet site of CCFA). Consequently, an increase of the Diesel PCs percentage in this country could be a simple and ecient way to control the CO2 emissions of the transport sector, which accounted for about 35% of the total CO2 emissions in Sweden in 2003 (Internet site of Swedish Environmental Protection Agency). On the contrary, increased market share by Diesel engines could have a negative impact on particulate matter (PM) and NOx emissions, which are higher for present Diesel PCs. However, recent technological developments of the Diesel engines, partly due to more stringent emissions regulations, show that future PM and NOx emissions of Diesel PCs should be reduced to the level of todays gasoline engines. Therefore, we estimate that the impact on local atmosphere quality will be independent of the vehicle type in the future (by 2020), because the dierences between regulatory limits of Diesel and gasoline PC will be very small. It must be noted that the latest models of Diesel PCs are already equipped with Diesel particulate lters (DPFs), which reduce the PM emissions on the level of the current gasoline vehicles or even lower (Zervas et al., 2004, 2005).

2. DATA AND METHODOLOGY USED 2.1. Data used The main sources of the statistical data used in this work are the internet sites of the Association of European Automobile Manufacturers (Internet site of ACEA), Eurostat (Internet site of Eurostat), Committee of French Automobile Manufacturers (CCFA (Internet site of CCFA)), World Resources Institute (Internet site of WRI), International Road Federation (Internet site of IRF), Deutsche Gegellschaft fur Technische Zusammenarbeit (Internet site of GTZ), Swedish Petroleum Institute (Internet site of SPI) and Swedish Statistics Net (Internet site of Swedish Statistics Net). The German Federal Motoring Authority (KBA, Internet site of the German Federal Motoring Authority) publishes the weight and CO2 emissions obtained on the New European Driving Cycle (NEDC), for all new passenger car models certied in Germany in 2003. The CO2 emissions of the KBA le are used for the calculations, assuming no changes in the annual mileage for current and future gasoline and Diesel PCs. In order to estimate the potential inuence on CO2 emissions of an increased Diesel PC market share in Sweden, the current Swedish PC market is analysed and compared with the average PC market of the European Union (15 countries). Consequently, some probable scenarios for the Swedish market in 2020 are established. Then, the changes on CO2 emissions are calculated for dierent percentages of Diesel penetration in the Swedish market. Firstly, the current CO2 emissions are calculated from the existing data; nally, the future CO2 emissions
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are estimated taking into account the most probable future technologies (Sullivan et al., 2004). This study is limited to CO2 emissions from new registered passenger cars.

2.2. Analysis of the Swedish PC market In 2003, the Swedish population corresponded to 2.32% of the total EU population and this percentage has remained constant since 1970 (Figure 1). However, the percentage of the Swedish PC eet decreased constantly, from 3.5% in 1970 to 2.5% in 1990. The decrease seems to slow down after this year and the percentage appears stabilized at around 2.1%. Although this percentage remained constant since 1995, Swedish Statistics Net (Internet site of Swedish Statistics Net) predicts an increase in the future.

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Figure 1. Lower curves: percentage of the Swedish population and passenger car eet in European Union. Middle curves: number of PC/1000 inhabitants in the EU and in Sweden and the percentage of the Swedish number over the EU one. Upper curves: number of the new PC sales/1000 inhabitants in the EU and in Sweden and the percentage of the Swedish number over the EU.
Copyright # 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Int. J. Energy Res. 2007; 31:192203 DOI: 10.1002/er

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In 2001, the average EU number of passenger cars per 1000 inhabitants was 488, while in Sweden it was 454, corresponding to 93% of the average EU number (Figure 1). This percentage decreased since 1970, where it was almost 140%, but remained rather stable since the mid-1990s. The two parameters increasing the passenger car eet: new car registrations and increase of the average age of the already registered vehicles, show a signicant dierence between the Swedish and the average EU market. In 2003, only 28.9 new PC/1000 inhabitants were registered in Sweden, considerably less than the 34 PC/1000 inhabitants registered in EU (Figure 1, upper curves). Furthermore, the Swedish eet is older than the average EU age: 9.2 years in Sweden against 7.6 in the EU in 1999 (Panorama of Transport, 2003). Another signicant dierence between the Swedish and the EU market is the percentage of new Diesel passenger cars registrations. This percentage was only around 10% in 1980 in most EU countries, but increased sharply to reach more than 60% in 2002 in some countries, like Austria and Belgium (Internet site of ACEA, Internet site of CCFA). However in Sweden, after a small continuous increase from 1990 to 1996, this percentage dropped again to only around 7% in 2003 (Figure 2). The low percentage of Diesel registrations is partially due to the fuel prices in Sweden. In the past, the Diesel fuel was relatively more expensive than gasoline in Sweden than in the other Western European countries (Figure 3, internet site of GTZ, internet site of SPI). The more recent years the most of European countries tend to decrease this dierence. The type of car segment is another important parameter taken into account in this work. In Table I are presented the main characteristics of the 11 segments of the European eet: average weight, average CO2 emissions on the NEDC and sales percentage in 2003. Four classes

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Figure 2. Percentage of new Diesel passenger cars registrations in Sweden, EU average and some EU countries.
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Unleaded gasoline/Diesel price

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Sweden France Germ any Belgium

1.4

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Figure 3. Ratio of unleaded gasoline/Diesel fuel prices in Sweden, France, Germany and Belgium.

Table I. The 11 segments of the EU and Swedish PC eet. RSD: relative standard deviation. Gasoline Inertia Segment Economic Small car Lower medium Upper medium SUV (54m50) 4 4 (54m50) Superior Compact Prestige 4 4 (>4m50) SUV (>4m50) CO2 emissions Registrations in 2003 (%) EU 10.9 37.5 27.9 13.7 1.6 0.58 4.4 0.78 1.09 0.08 0.66 SWE 1.2 14.3 24.1 30.8 3.2 0.3 21.3 2.1 0.3 0.7 1.6 Inertia Diesel CO2 emissions Registrations in 2003 (%) EU SWE

Average RSD Average RSD (kg) (%) (g km1) (%) 839 947 1138 1340 1345 1406 1510 1697 1712 1982 2004 9.9 9.6 9.7 9.0 11.7 25.1 8.1 8.0 16.9 10.2 7.0 151 168.5 196 222.5 232.8 265.6 259 266.2 336.3 342.8 342.7 16.1 15.1 14.3 14.1 12.2 25.9 15.0 12.9 27.1 11.3 13.4

Average RSD Average RSD (kg) (%) (g km1) (%) 900 1021 1217 1396 1631 1749 1568 1716 1779 1969 1970 9.0 8.7 8.2 8.2 11.3 21.4 6.0 8.2 8.5 8.3 8.0 121.6 138.5 153.6 173.5 227.5 260.2 200.9 196.2 230.4 285.6 256.6

17.2 0.98 0.4 13.5 18.0 1.0 12.9 36.4 11.3 14.9 23.5 31.6 14.5 6.41 5.7 16.2 2.12 3.1 14.5 4.3 36.8 12.3 1.35 0.15 11.7 0.35 0.15 10.6 0.77 1.20 9.42 2.0 8.5

compose most of the EU average and Swedish market: Economic, Small Car, Lower Medium and Upper Medium. However, the Swedish market comprises heavier passenger cars than the EU average. For example, in 2003, the Economic and Small Car gasoline segments represented 48.4% in EU, but only 15.5% in Sweden. The same year, the percentage of the Upper Medium gasoline segment was 13.7% in the EU but 30.8% in Sweden. The average
Copyright # 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Int. J. Energy Res. 2007; 31:192203 DOI: 10.1002/er

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weight of gasoline and Diesel passenger cars in Sweden was, respectively, 1348 and 1607 kg in 2003, against 1126 and 1366 kg for the EU average. A signicant dierence is observed between the Swedish and European market in 2003: the Swedish gasoline and Diesel passenger cars were, respectively, 222 and 241 kg heavier than the corresponding EU ones. This indicates that for the same number of passenger cars and the same annual mileage, the CO2 emissions would be higher in Sweden because of the heavier PCs. 2.3. Relationship between CO2 emissions and weight of current gasoline and Diesel passenger cars Gasoline and Diesel CO2 emissions can be presented as a simple function of vehicle weight (Sullivan et al., 2004). The equations: CO2 0:1479W 7:9 and

CO2 0:1133W 8:2 (with CO2 in g km1 and W the PC weight in kg) for gasoline and Diesel PCs were obtained using the 2003 KBA data. The assumption was made in the current work, that an eventual replacement of gasoline passenger cars by Diesel versions would rather occur within the same segment than within the same weight class. So, in a more market-oriented approach, CO2 emissions were presented using the average weight of each PC segment. Two new equations were thus obtained: CO2 0:1702W 6:7 and

CO2 0:1398W 11:0 (with CO2 in g km1 and W the PC weight in kg) for gasoline and Diesel passenger cars, respectively. These last two equations were used in the calculations for the present work.

2.4. Assumptions used for the future fuel consumption Although there can be no precise calculations of future fuel consumption (FC), the main parameters inuencing this issue can be assessed. A decrease in FC is likely to be caused by improvements in combustion eciency, frictions and vehicle aerodynamics. On the other hand, stricter emission regulations and the growing demand for fuel-consuming facilities will probably increase FC. Some evaluations include a 3% penalty from the use of a DPF (Stamatelos, 1997; Johnson, 2003; Lambert et al., 2004), a 5% penalty from the use of NOx trap technology (Lambert et al., 2004; USEPA, 2002), and a 1% penalty from the use of urea SCR (USEPA, 2002). Some changes in FC of advanced gasoline engines and transmissions are given in CAFE (NRC, 2002). A list of technologies expected to increase or decrease future FC, and an estimated total decrease of 11% in gasoline and 03% in Diesel FC by the year 2015, are published by Sullivan et al. (2004). In the present work, the eects of gasoline and Diesel future consumption changes on CO2 emissions in Sweden are calculated within a wide range of future FC change: 20 to +10%.
Copyright # 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Int. J. Energy Res. 2007; 31:192203 DOI: 10.1002/er

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2.5. Scenarios used for the estimation of future CO2 changes from the increased Diesel penetration in Sweden In order to estimate the probable evolution of passenger car sales in Sweden, four scenarios were constructed, which take into account the dierences between the Swedish and the EU market: 1. The scenario 1, named CURRENT, uses the current Swedish new passenger car sales (28.9 new PC registrations 1000 inhab.1 year1) and segment distribution. 2. The scenario 2, named AVERAGE, uses the average value between the current Swedish and the current EU new passenger car sales (31.5 new PC registrations 1000 inhab.1 year1). The percentage of each segment corresponds to the average value between the current Swedish and the current EU percentages. 3. The scenario 3, named AVERAGE1, uses the average value between the current Swedish and the current EU new passenger car sales (31.5 new PC registrations 1000 inhab.1 year1), but maintains the current Swedish segment distribution. 4. The scenario 4, named EU, uses the current EU new passenger car sales (34 new PC registrations 1000 inhab.1 year1) and the average current EU segment distribution.

3. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION 3.1. Changes in CO2 emissions from the increased penetration of Diesel passenger cars in Sweden For each scenario, the eects of dierent Diesel market penetrations are illustrated in Figures 47 for three cases: 7% (current), 30 and 50%. These graphs help to show the specic role of each parameter inuencing CO2 emissions: Diesel/gasoline FC, new PC sales, market segmentation. Each bar in the graphs represents the change in CO2 emissions when a 2.5% change occurs in Diesel and/or gasoline FC, within the limits of 20% and +10% (13 13=169 bars in total). The tops of these bars (or the bottoms, if values are negative) dene a virtual surface that shows all CO2 emissions changes in function of FC changes. The intersection of this surface with the 0% change level in CO2 emissions denes a line, which displays the cases where the eects of the parameters inuencing these emissions are counterbalanced. The more this line is parallel to the axis of Diesel FC change, the less Diesel FC changes inuence total change in CO2 emissions.
Current,7%
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Figure 4. CO2 change in Sweden for the CURRENT scenario, as a function of Diesel penetration (7, 30 and 50%).
Copyright # 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Int. J. Energy Res. 2007; 31:192203 DOI: 10.1002/er

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Figure 5. CO2 change in Sweden for the AVERAGE scenario, as a function of Diesel penetration (7, 30 and 50%).

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Figure 6. CO2 change in Sweden for the AVERAGE1 scenario, as a function of Diesel penetration (7, 30 and 50%).
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Figure 7. CO2 change in Sweden for the EU scenario, as a function of Diesel penetration (7, 30 and 50%).

CO2 emissions always appear most decreased with lowest Diesel/gasoline FCs (20%, bottom centre of each graph), and most increased with highest Diesel/gasoline FC (+10%, top centre of each graph). The right-hand bar of each graph shows CO2 change when increase in gasoline and decrease in Diesel FC are highest, the left-hand bar shows CO2 change when decrease in gasoline and increase in Diesel FC are highest. The 0% Diesel FC change line shows
Copyright # 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Int. J. Energy Res. 2007; 31:192203 DOI: 10.1002/er

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CO2 changes caused merely by gasoline FC change; CO2 changes in the 0% gasoline FC change line result by changes only in Diesel FC. Scenario 1 (CURRENT): We assume that new passenger car sales in the Swedish market will remain unchanged in number (28.9 new PC registrations 1000 inhab.1 year1) and segment distribution. Two thirds of the hypotheses in FC show a reduction of future CO2 emissions, due to the expected decrease in Diesel and gasoline consumption (Figure 4(a)). The most optimistic FC assumption gives a reduction of about 20% in CO2 emissions (bottom centre bar), the most pessimistic an increase of about 10% (top centre bar). Because current Diesel penetration is too small (7%), changes in CO2 emissions depend mainly on the FC changes in gasoline engines. If gasoline FC remains unchanged, a variation of +10% to 20% in Diesel FC would cause a change of +0.7% to 1.4% in CO2 emissions. For a stable Diesel FC, a dierence of just 2.5% in gasoline FC would cause a bigger CO2 change (about 2.3%). A variation of +10% to 20% in gasoline FC would cause a change of +9.3% to 18.6% in CO2 emissions. The percentage of Diesel penetration strongly inuences the total CO2 emissions change. It is clearly shown that the expected CO2 benet is more important at increased Diesel penetrations (Figures 4(b), (c)). In case of Diesel market penetration of 30%, CO2 change would be about 2.8% lower, with current FC. Most hypotheses in FC show a reduction of future CO2 emissions. The most optimistic FC assumption gives a reduction of about 22.3%, the most pessimistic an increase of about 6.8%. In the case of Diesel penetration of 50%, CO2 emissions would be even lower, about 7.5%, with current FC. Almost all hypotheses in FC show a reduction of future CO2 emissions. The most optimistic FC assumption gives a reduction of about 26%, the most pessimistic an increase of 1.7%. The CO2 benet would be smaller only in cases of important gasoline FC decrease (more than 10%) in respect with the change in Diesel FC. In the extreme assumption of +10% change in Diesel FC and 20% in gasoline FC, CO2 change would be 17.9 and 12.3 for 7 and 50% Diesel penetration, respectively. Scenario 2 (AVERAGE): We assume that the Swedish car market will move closer to the average EU market in new passenger car sales (31.5 new PC registrations 1000 inhab.1 year1) and segment distribution. This corresponds to an increase of about 9% in new PC registrations. The global CO2 emissions show very similar patterns with the graphs of scenario 1 (Figure 5). In the case of current Diesel penetration, CO2 change values remain practically constant and even slightly reduced. The most optimistic FC assumption gives a reduction of about 20.1% in CO2 emissions, the most pessimistic an increase of about 9.9%. This means that for a small new PC sales increase, CO2 emissions would not deteriorate if lighter cars were bought. The cases of increased Diesel market penetration give comparable results with the scenario 1 (Figures 5(b), (c)). The CO2 change would be about 3.2 for 30% and 8.1 for 50% Diesel market penetration, with current FCs. The most optimistic FC assumptions give a reduction of 22.6 and 26.4%, the most pessimistic give an increase of 6.5 and 1.1%, for 30 and 50% Diesel penetration, respectively. So, even if global CO2 emissions rise with the number of new PC sales, the change in segment distribution can compensate this increase and, together with the introduction of Diesel passenger cars, may help to control the total CO2 emitted from new PCs. In this scenario also, the CO2 benet would be smaller in case of important gasoline FC decrease in relation to Diesel FC (18.5 and 12.1% in the extreme case of +10% change in Diesel FC and 20% in gasoline FC for 7% and 50% Diesel penetration, respectively).
Copyright # 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Int. J. Energy Res. 2007; 31:192203 DOI: 10.1002/er

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Scenario 3 (AVERAGE 1): In this scenario, the average value between the current Swedish and EU new PC sales is used (31.5 new PC registrations 1000 inhab.1 year1), but the current Swedish segment distribution is maintained. The increase in new PC registrations would be about 9%. Although the number of new passenger cars is the same as in scenario 2, the results in CO2 emissions are much more decreased due to the adverse market segmentation. More than half of the hypotheses in FC show an increase of future CO2 emissions for current Diesel market penetration (Figure 6(a)). Increase in CO2 emissions is about 8% with current FCs. The change in CO2 emissions in the most optimistic FC assumption is about 13.6%, in the most pessimistic about +18.8%. In case of Diesel market penetration of 30%, with current FCs, CO2 change would be about 3.2% lower, but still positive: 4.8% (Figure 6(b)). With 50%, Diesel penetration, CO2 change becomes negative: 0.2%, or 8.2% lower (Figure 6(c)). More than half of the hypotheses in FC show a reduction in future CO2 emissions for 30% Diesel penetration and almost 75% show a reduction for 50% Diesel penetration. The most optimistic FC assumptions give a reduction of 16.1 and 20.2%, the most pessimistic an increase of 15.3 and 9.8%, for 30 and 50% Diesel penetration, respectively. CO2 emission changes are in all cases 69% higher than in scenario 2. This shows the great importance of vehicle weight and segment distribution. The eects in CO2 emissions of a small increase in passenger car sales with the current segment distribution in the Swedish market can only be compensated by an increased Diesel penetration, if no remarkable changes in FC occur. CO2 benet would be smaller in case of important gasoline FC decrease in relation to Diesel FC (11.4 and 5.4% in the extreme case of +10% change in Diesel FC and 20% in gasoline FC for 7 and 50% Diesel penetration, respectively). Scenario 4 (EU): According to this scenario, the new passenger car sales in the Swedish market approach the current EU new passenger car sales (34 new PC registrations 1000 inhab.1 year1) and the average current EU segment distribution. This corresponds to an increase of about 18% in new PC registrations. More than 90% of the hypotheses in FC show an increase of future CO2 emissions for current Diesel market penetration (Figure 7(a)). Increase in CO2 emissions is about 20.1% with current FCs. The change in CO2 emissions in the most optimistic FC assumption is about 3.9%, in the most pessimistic about +32.1%. A decrease in gasoline FC consumption of more than 17.5% would be required in order to keep future CO2 emissions in the present levels. The cases of increased Diesel market penetration give again better results for CO2 emissions (Figure 7(b), (c)). The CO2 change would be about +16.6% for 30% and +11% for 50% Diesel market penetration, with current FCs. However, in order to reach the current CO2 emissions, a Diesel penetration of almost 100% would be required. The most optimistic FC assumptions give a reduction of 6.7 and 11.2%, the most pessimistic an increase of 28.3 and 22.1%, for 30 and 50% Diesel penetration, respectively. CO2 emission changes are in all cases about 1720 percentage units higher than in scenario 1. These results show that if the Swedish new passenger cars sales were to approach the EU average, an important increase of total CO2 emissions would occur. In order to maintain the present CO2 emissions levels, signicant improvements in FC together with a high Diesel market penetration would be required. However, as in all the above scenarios, CO2 benet from increased Diesel penetration would be smaller, and even negative, in case of important future gasoline FC decrease with respect to
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Diesel FC (1.5 and +5.3% in the extreme case of +10% change in Diesel FC and 20% in gasoline FC for 7 and 50% Diesel penetration, respectively).

4. CONCLUSIONS Probable future changes in CO2 emissions caused by the new registered passenger cars in Sweden were evaluated, taking into account the actual car market conditions in the country. If future new passenger car registrations in Sweden remain as at present, the CO2 emissions will depend essentially on changes in gasoline FC. Although CO2 emissions generally increase with the number of passenger cars sales, a small increase in sales (less than 10%) may have no negative inuence if the car segment distribution moves down to lighter vehicles. On the contrary, a small increase in sales with the current segment distribution would cause an important rise in CO2 emissions, which could be compensated only by a signicant decrease in gasoline FC. If the new PC registrations reach the average EU value, the resulting increase of more than 20% in CO2 emissions would require a decrease in gasoline FC of more than 17.5% in order to keep future CO2 emissions in the present levels. In all the scenarios considered, increased penetration of Diesel passenger cars in the Swedish market helps to reduce the total CO2 emitted from new passenger cars. The benet in CO2 emissions varies from 2.8 to 3.5% in the case of 30% Diesel penetration and from 7.5 to 9.1% in the case of 50% Diesel penetration. If a small increase in sales occurs with the current segment distribution, the resulting rise in CO2 emissions could be compensated simply by an increased Diesel market penetration, without requiring changes in FC. Increased Diesel penetration in the Swedish car market would have a negative impact in CO2 emissions in case of adverse future FC changes. If an important gasoline FC decrease occurs (more than 10%), with regard to the change in Diesel FC, a high Diesel percentage would cause an increase in CO2 emissions.

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Int. J. Energy Res. 2007; 31:192203 DOI: 10.1002/er