Romania between the Russian energetic threat and the environmental shale gas extraction risk Cosmin Gabriel

PACURARU1

Summary Romania, after its change o power, does not have a reliable National Security Strategy that includes energetic strategy elements. This statement is based on the fact that the old strategy was elaborated by the former CSAT component given out by the former government. This can be seen from the comparison of the 2 !2 "overnmental #rogram with the "overnmental actions of the $inister of %conomy and the &oreign Affairs $inister.

'ey (ords %nergetic strategy, shale gases, )lac* Sea, alternative transport routes

Chapter I Present Situation: Gazproms monopol Russia, the survivor of what was once the Soviet Union and the Tsarist Empire, re-evaluated its foreign policy after Putin-Medvedevs rise to power This way, a new strategy was ela!orated in which affirms the new action plan" # the European Union countries have to !ecome more and more dependent on the Russian gas, Russia will reali$e a !ig investment in tu!ing %see &lue Stream, 'orth Stream and the South Stream pro(ect), sei$ure and, enlargement of the transport capacities of former USSR countries" Tur*menistan, +a$a*hstan, U$!e*istan, and ,$er!ai(an to the -est %in .anuary /0#/ 1a$prom announced a dou!ling of ,$er!ai(ans gas to 2 mil mc3year/), creation of intermediary firms in the western states that occupies with gas imports %Romania imports through two firms this way), 1a$proms association with its 4old !usiness partners5 in different firms %-6EE importer has shareholding 1a$prom2), shareholding as many firms as possi!le that speciali$e in gas production and distri!ution or rolling stoc* producers for the gas transportation and e7traction industry in the -est, purchase of national gas and petrol transportation and distri!ution companies, or their finished products from as many European countries as possi!le %M89 - :ungary, '6S - Ser!ia), purchase or association with many
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;osmin 1a!riel P,;UR,RU %cosmin<pacuraru=yahoo com) is a doctrand in 6nternational Relations and European Studies at the &a!es-&olyai University in ;lu( and wors in communications, his field of e7pertise !eing mass-media

European infrastructure companies %communications, railroad transport, etc ) in e7change for a smaller price on gas %Moldoga$, national gas distri!utor for the Repu!lic of Moldova is held in a >#? proportion !y 1a$prom and Moldova imports with #00 Euros cheaper that the rest of the countries) The EU statistics say that @A? of the Unions gas consumption is represented !y pipeline imports, these !eing made !y the folloing" >/? Russia, 2#? 'orway, #/? ,lgeria, 2? 9i!ya, /? 6ran A The countries with the larges consumption rate in Europe are" 1ermany, Brance, 6taly, Tur*ey, and U*raine The firs three, !eing in the European Union su!(ect to the minimum of the laws imposed !y the new common energetic strategy These are" energetic consumption reduction with /0? and /0? of the produced energy must !e renewa!le until /0/0 %Cirective /0- /0- /0 >) and the energetic strategy for the reduction of 1a$proms monopoly, ela!orated in /0##, which oversees the development and realisation of alternative gas supply routes ,lso, the European commission made a decision that o!liges all the countries to interconnect their gas transport and electric energy routes D Energy consuming countries turned their attention to natural gasses in the last >0 years, and the richest resources can !e fount today in Russia ,t that time, there e7isted a common tacit agreement !etween a part of the European ;ommunities and USSR" the first of them providing technology and the other resources E 6n the winter of /00>- /00D, the firs gas crisis was triggered in Russia and U*raine and the gas deliveries to the EU were interrupted Even though studies that calculated the ris* of total disconnection e7isted, until then there wasnt any syncope in gas provision The construction of 'orth Stream started in that period, the gas pipeline that goes under the &altic Sea and avoids passing through U*raine, &elorussia, Poland, the ;$ech Repu!lic and Slova*ia and has the purpose to reduce the political influences of these states and increase 1ermanys energetic dependence to the Russian Bederation The European Union is energetically dependent of Russia in proportion of over 20? on all raw materials

Ta!le #" Source ;E- EUR8ST,T@ !hat Russia !ants " #locking all transport and provision alternatives The emphasis on the economic crisis !rought to the decrease of raw material need and implicitly of Russian raw material imports with more than /0? in the last years, which does not suit Russia too well 6t created political and economic pressures on the European Union and the countries that have economic contracts so that they wont lower their imported gas consumption Putting in !alance the possi!ility to realise alternative transport routes for resources %'a!ucco and ,1R6) and discovering alternative resources %shale gasses) made the Russian foreign policy to radicalise and to represent a ris* factor in the international security environment -e can o!serve that Russia put in remar*a!le efforts to finish the 'orth Stream gas pipeline !efore its due date, to !ring in discussion a possi!le South Stream gas pipeline, to minimise the importance of the 'a!ucco gas pipeline and the liFuefied gas transport route ,1R6 ,!out the finality of the negotiations overloo*ing 'a!ucco, it is found that Russia negotiated with Tur*ey, the &otas ;ompany *ey shareholder the realisation of pro(ect 'a!ucco, so that the company would waiver its participation in this pro(ect 6n e7change, 1a$prom engaged not to modify the pumped gas prices through &lue Stream, the gas pipeline that unites

Russia with Tur*ey under the &lac* Sea ,lso, Russia engaged to supply Tur*ey with the necessary technology to !uild an atomic-electric power stationG

Bigure# Source" 1a$prom com The discovery of new gas resources in the &lac* Sea close to Romanian and &ulgarian territory, and significant shale gas resources in Poland, Romania and &ulgaria, resources that would guarantee energetic security for the respective countries#0 for a long period of time and would ma*e possi!le gas e7port to the western countries These discoveries represent a ma(or threat in the loss of a significant percentage in Russian gas e7ports and a loss of influence in its strategic $one ,nother way is !uying in advance of gas production of former USSR e7porting countries towards transportation and selling, two e7amples !eing the dou!ling of the gas Fuantity ta*en !y ,$er!ai(an ## or cutting the pipelines in Tur*menistan to any other importing country#/ $% &he creation o' (the energetic pliers) Until this moment only 'orth Stream is functional, which represents the northern route of the energetic pliers, &lue Stream a part of the southern route, South Stream is e7pected to !e designed and realised

Bigure /" http"33www south-stream-transport com &he public opinion in'luence and the respective countries administration ,rticles e7isted a!out the minimisation of the declarations and information in reference to the newly discovered reserves This way article appeared in the Russian press, imported !y the other countries that are trying to minimise the resources and reducing the ones that made the declarations to a!surd#2 6n the firs wee* of the new US9 government in Romania, a strategy change was produced, which targets 1a$proms entrance or of its su!sidiaries in the Romanian mar*et of distri!ution of fuels or services ,fter a wee* from the change of power, the '6S ;ompany, su!sidiary to 1a$prom in Ser!ia, too* over a chain of gas stations in Romania#A and is preparing to invest over >00 million Euros in the domain#> Three months prior to US9s rise to power, 1a$prom overta*es a !un*ering firm in the port of ;onstanta#D and is in negotiations with the Romanian government to get hold of the 8ltchim state company #E 6f we analyse the facts, we can conclude that in the period of the PC9 governing !etween /00@- /0##, no powerful Russian firm invested in Romania, only after US9s rise to power this happened Still in the first wee* of US9 governing, a moratorium overloo*ing the e7ploration and e7ploitation of shale gasses on the Romanian territory was imposed#@ This was done to stop the ,merican firm ;hevrons e7ploitation in two $ones %&arlad and the southern seaside) -e can assess that the introduction of this moratorium !y the Romanian 1overnment was made at the insistence of the Russian diplomats , similar thing happened in the case of the gold e7ploitation in Rosia Montana, which is leased to a ;anadian firm , similar decision was made in

&ulgaria overloo*ing its shale gasses, &ulgaria !eing #00? dependent on Russian gas#G -e now analy$e !oth of the protests against the shale gasses performed in &arlad in the spring of /0#/, protests at which participated over >000 citi$ens/0 -e consider that no Romanian organisation can gather as many people not even in &ucharest, serving as e7amples the demonstrations organised over the course of time !y any organisation, protest demonstrations that hardly gathered #000 people * &he in'luence o' the +, governing and the component countries administration 'ot all the decisions made in the Parliament and 1overnment of the European countries were in their advantage The last decision which can !e put under a Fuestion mar* !elongs to the 1erman &undestagH this !eing the decision to close all the atom-electric power station in the situation that /E? of the energy produced comes from nuclear fusion/# 1radually, !y /0/0, all the 1erman nuclear power stations will !e closed, the necessary energy !eing produced from coal and gas Statistics say that the ris* of a nuclear power station accident is smaller than any other power stations and that pollution is on a greater scale in the case of thermo power stations powered !y fossil fuels and that 1ermany is the largest importer of Russian raw materials, especially gas, we can assess that the law of which were tal*ing a!out is in Russias favour and in 1ermanys detriment and the decision could have !een influenced !y Russian organisations and institutions

Ta!le / 8ther decisions that can !e interpreted in this way could !e the two moratoriums imposed !y the &ulgarian and Romanian governments overloo*ing shale gasses !hat the +uropean ,nion wants and implicitl Romania " -lternative suppl and transport sources +nowing the resources found in the ;aucasian countries and the annual supply potential of natural gas" Tur*menistan- @0 !illion mc3year, +a$a*hstan- >0 !illion mc3year, and U$!e*istan- /> !illion mc3year, the European Union assesses this $one to !e an opportunity to escape 1a$proms monopoly ;omparing the acFuisition price of these countries supplied gas at the frontier !y Russia, these !eing !etween D> and ##0I3 #000 mc and the price with which re-e7ports, sometimes over >00I3 #000 mc, we can summari$e that EUs offer is more advantageous for these countries This is the reason for the tal* a!out the importance of the 'a!ucco and ,1R6 pro(ects The 'a!ucco pro(ect started in /00/ -ith the coming of the crisis, the decrease in gas demand and the completion of 'orth Stream left the pro(ect without financing resources

Bigure 2" Source" http"33eurodialogue org The situation at this moment is the following" there are discussions a!out an alternative shorter than 'a!ucco %-est 'a!ucco) that will pass through &ulgaria, Romania, :ungary, finally reaching ,ustria The Tur*ish side will !e covered !y a new pipeline route" Trans-,natolia 1as Pipeline %T,',P)//

Bigure A" Source" http"33www tanap com 6n /0#/ the 8MJ president, coming in a vi$it in Romania, declared that an immense gas source is present in the &lac* Sea /2 8n 8cto!er #E /0#/, the president of Romania, Traian &asescu, declared after a meeting with the ,ustrian foreign affaris minister that Kthe regional energetic strategy can !e changed due to 8MJ Petrom and due to the resources discovered in the &lac* Sea5/A ,!out the ,1R6 pro(ect %,$er!ai(an- 1eorgia- Romania interconnector) there are less discussions !ecause the pro(ect is only at the feasi!ility sudy stage The pro(ect does not yet have financing sources and has not yet !een discussed in the Europrean ;ommission $ Smaller prices 'or Russian imports ,ccording to Eurostat, over >0? of EUs energy comes from imports outside the EU/> and the greatest part of these imports come from Russia

Ta!le 2 -e can o!serve that there e7ists a tendency of percentage growth due to the decrease of EUs reserves, event though the Fuantity of the imports are decreasing 6n the last #0 years Russia dou!led its gas prices 6f in /002 the average price of gas imported in the EU form Russia was #2#I3#000 mc /D, some of them having lower prices %Poland imported with #/0I3#000 mc) /E, today we find that prices differ depending on the total e7port value in a country in relation to the total e7port value in all importing countries, depending on the dependency of the country, depending on the Russian imports, and depending on Russias economical and political interests in

the country/@ The average import price in /00G for the EU countries was 20#I3#000 mcH in other countries e7ceeding A#0?3#000 mc These growths dont suit ant country, so the European ;ommission adopted a plan of action in /00@ that provides interconnecting all the gas pipelines from the mem!er states, realising deposits in every country for minimum gas and petrol stoc*, ensuring a free mar*et for raw material prices in the EU and a supply networ* through more transport routes/G ,lso, the EU imposed 1a$prom to renegotiate the gas prices 6n /0#/, the negotiations were finalised, 1a$prom offering lower prices to the main energetic European companies20 . +nergetic e''icienc growths and the use o' renewable resources ,nother option imposed !y the European ;ommission is the adoption in /0#0 of the 4Energy /0/0 Safety for a competitive, dura!le, and secure energy5 initiative2# This strategy defines the energetic priorities for a ten year period and determines actions that should !e performed to address a series of challenges, including the realisation of a competitive and safe supply price mar*et, facilitating the leader position in technology and efficient negotiation with international partners, growing the energetic performances !y /0? and imputing that /0? of the consumed energy should come from renewa!le sources ,nited States and the +urasian energ resources Even from the G0s, the United States !egan partnerships with the ;aspian countries in the idea of petrol and natural gas prospection and e7traction The ,merican companies have advanced technology and are present at this moment in the ma(ority of former USSR countries in various forms" from the Russian (ointventure T'+- &P to the concession of petrol fields in the ;aspian Sea and the &lac* Sea 6n the last period, ,merican ;ompany ;hevron prospected many $ones in Poland, &ulgaria, and Romania discovering resources that could ma*e Europe independent of Russian energy The only country to start shale gas e7ploitation is Poland Romania and &ulgaria esta!lished moratoriums to prospect and e7ploit their shale gas Romania and shale gas Shale gas is considered a non-conventional resource and is a geological formation of hydrocar!ons that is present in a small concentration in roc*s, with a wide surface span, present /-2*m in the ground2/ 6ts e7traction is realised !y a relatively new technology called hydraulic fracturing which forces gasses free themselves form the roc*s and find their way to the surface :ydraulic fracturing is controversial !ecause it is thought to have negative effects on the environment Even though over D0? of gas production in the United States comes from hydraulic

fracturing and hori$ontal drilling and in Romania, Romga$ ;ompany is using a similar method, which is now outdated22 and this company accidentally o!tained gasses and shale gasses, the authorities have not yet ela!orated a strategy in reference with these resources The first commercial e7ploitations too* place in the @0s, the technology !eing improved Bor over A0 years the Environmental Protection ,gency %EP,) studies the environmental ris*s and has not yet come to any conclusion -ith all this, the scientists consider that there are ecological ris*s related to the contamination of earth and water, and ris*s related to earthFua*es, !ut there are no ma(or environmental accident recorded There doesnt yet e7ist an e7ploration and e7ploitation of these type of resources regulation staff in Romania, the environmental organisations invo*ing the opaFue decision of the authorities in this domain -ith all this, after the US9 governments coming to power, the Environment and Borest Minister instituted a moratorium over the prospection and e7ploitation of shale gasses -e remem!er that in March of /0#/ PSC forwarded in the Romanian Senate a law pro(ect that oversees !anning this type of e7traction ,nalysing the 'ational Security Strategy that contains parts dedicated to the energetic strategy, it can !e o!served that there is no reference to the nonconventional resources or shale gas resources Even though the su!(ect of energetic security was secured !y President Traian &asescu, no one from the present governmental coalition ma*es any reference to the energetic security, so neither the shale gasses Conclusions Romania is in the impossi!ility to decide the future energetic strategy +nowing that the present 'ational Security Strategy was ela!orated !y the former ;S,T component at the same time as the former PC9 government, in the present situation that the government affirms generalities in the 1overnmental Program in reference to the alignment with the European security strategy we can affirm that at this moment, Romania has no strategy in this domain2A Romania has two possi!le energetic strategies" # Romania can rely on gas imports from Russia, meaning that the imposed prices depend on the waiver margins on national security pro!lems in favour of the Russian Bederation / Romania will rely in its shale gas resources and will sustain and invest in the newly discovered reserves or in the !ypass conventional natural gas transport routes

# +upchins*y, Roman - 1,LPR8MS EUR8PE,' -E&, .amestown Boundation 9i!rary, .amesTown /00G / PMcuraru, ;osmin 1a!riel N Europa si imposi!ilitatea managementului securitMii energetice, 6mpact Strategic nr 2 %A0) /0##, U',P 2 6onescu, 1eorgeta N 1a$ele de sist o noua provocare, ,sociatia ,9M,-R8, iulie /0#/ A EUR8ST,T site > Romanian 1overnment site D Romanian Presidency site E Europe Union site @ -6EEH 1a$prom sites G sites of online pu!lication" 6nfoRusia roH Radio Jocea RusieiH ,devMrulH 1OndulH Liarul Binaciar Liare comH Cigi /AH Mediafa7H The .amesTown BoundationH :otnewsH TJR 6nfo

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+upchins*y, Roman - 1,LPR8MS EUR8PE,' -E&, .amestown Boundation 9i!rary, .amesTown /00G, pag / 6nfoRusia ro - http"33inforusia ro3inde7 phpPoptionQcom<contentRviewQarticleRidQ>>AD"moscova-isi-du!lea$aachi$itiile-de-ga$-din-a$er!aid(anRcatidQ2@"politicaR6temidQ>D 3 -6EE we!site- http"33www wiee ch3 4 Source" EUR8ST,T 5 Europa eu - http"33www europarl europa eu3sides3getCoc doPtypeQ6MPRESSRreferenceQ/00@#/0@&R6A2G22RsecondRefQ6TEM-00/-E'RformatQSM9RlanguageQE' 6 Europa eu - http"33europa eu3legislation<summaries3energy3internal<energy<mar*et3l/E0@#<ro htm 7 Pacuraru, ;osmin 1a!riel- Europe and the impossi!ility of energetic security management Strategic 6mpact nr 2 %A0) /0##, U',P, pag #0A 8 http"33epp eurostat ec europa eu3statistics<e7plained3inde7 phpPtitleQBile"Main<origin<of<primary<energy<imports,<EU/E,</00#-/00G<%?/><of<e7tra<EU-/E<imports) pngRfiletimestampQ/0####/2#EAE00
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Radio 4The Joice of Russia5- http"33RomMnian ruvr ru3/0##30@3//3>>00DD@E html

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,!out Romania, we have two interviews" The 8MJ and Petrom directors %:otnews - http"33economie hotnews ro3stirienergie-#22DD@0@-directorul-omv-petrom-e7tractia-ga$e-marea-neagra-putea-incepe-spre-sfarsitul-deceniului-e7ploatareaputea-asigura-independenta-energeticM-RomMniei-privinta-ga$elor-naturale htm) i al directorului SR6 %:otnews http"33www hotnews ro3stiri-esential-#22DGDG0-george-maior-seful-sri-prospectiunile-e77on-arata-sunt-re$erve-serioasee7trem-importante-hidrocar!uri-marea-neagra htm) 11 6nforusia ro - http"33inforusia ro3inde7 phpPoptionQcom<contentRviewQarticleRidQ>>AD"moscova-isi-du!lea$aachi$itiile-de-ga$-din-a$er!aid(anRcatidQ2@"politicaR6temidQ>D 12 ,devMrul N ;hap /, aligment >" http"33www adevarul ro3actualitate3;u<Traian<&asescu<in<Tur*menistantara<unui<singur<om<0<EG#G/0GE0 htmlT 13 E7ample" Radio 4The Joice of Russia5- 4Mariana 1heorghe did not confirm in any way the !om!astic declarations of the 8MJ director, 1erhard Roiss, a!out the natural gas reserves discovered in the Romanian &lac* Sea territory The e7istence of a 4gigantic deposit5 or 4of glo!al scale5 was not mentioned 4http"33RomMnian ruvr ru3/0#/<#0<0@3G0>2/AA235 14 ,devMrul - http"33www !usiness/A ro3ga$prom3investitii3nis-su!sidiara-sar!a-a-ga$prom-se-e7tinde-in-sud-estul-europei#>#>D@D
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1andul - http"33www gandul info3news3nis-su!sidiara-sar!a-a-ga$prom-are-aproape-D00-de-milioane-de-dolari-pentrue7plorari-in-RomMnia-ungaria-si-!osnia-GA0>E0E

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Liarul Binaciar - http"33www $f ro3companii3rusii-de-la-ga$prom-se-plasea$a-strategic-in-portul-constanta-prin-achi$itiaunei-afaceri-detinute-de-generalul-pacurei-#00DGE>E3 17 Liare com - http"33www $iare com3victor-ponta3premier3ponta-nu-m-ar-deran(a-nici-ga$prom-nici-dan-diaconescu-laoltchim-##G0EA> si http"33www $iare com3economie3privati$are3mitrea-daca-ga$prom-a-depus-oferta-pentru-oltchim-i-asda-gratis-com!inatul-##G0@GE 18 Cigi /A - http"33www digi/A ro3stire3Ceci$iile-privind-Rosia-Montana-si-ga$ele-de-sist-amanate-pana-dupa-alegerileparlamentare</#/GG 19 Pacuraru, ;osmin 1a!riel - - Europe and the impossi!ility of energetic security management Strategic 6mpact, nr 2 %A0) /0##, U',P, pag #0E- ta!le nr #
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Mediafa7 - http"33www mediafa7 ro3social3proteste-la-!arlad-mii-de-oameni-au-cerut-!locarea-e7ploatarii-ga$elor-de-sistGA/E//E 21 Eurostat - http"33epp eurostat ec europa eu3statistics<e7plained3inde7 phpP titleQBile"Energy<production,<#GGG<and</00G<%million<tonnes<of<oil<eFuivalent) pngRfiletimestampQ/0####/2#EADAE 22 The .amesTown Boundation - http"33www (amestown org3programs3edm3single3Pt7<ttnews?>&tt<news ?>CQ2G@/ERt7<ttnews?>&!ac*Pid?>CQ/ERc:ashQ>e/Aec#A2d!#Gcf>E#aeefee/edfaAcd 23 :otnews - http"33economie hotnews ro3stiri-energie-#22DD@0@-directorul-omv-petrom-e7tractia-ga$e-marea-neagra-puteaincepe-spre-sfarsitul-deceniului-e7ploatarea-putea-asigura-independenta-energeticM-RomMniei-privinta-ga$elor-naturale htm 24 :otnews - http"33economie hotnews ro3stiri-energie-#2A222>E-traian-!asescu-strategia-energeticM-regiunea-marii-negreputea-schim!a-dupa-noile-descoperiri-hidrocar!uri-$ona htm 25 Eurostat - http"33epp eurostat ec europa eu3statistics<e7plained3inde7 phpPtitleQBile"Energy<dependency<rate,<EU/E,<#GGG/00G<%?/><of<net<imports<in<gross<inland<consumption<and<!un*ers,<!ased<on<tonnes<of<oil<eFuivalent) pngRfileti mestampQ/0####/2#EA>>E 26 :otnews - http"33media hotnews ro3media<server#3document-/0##-0>-#D-@D2#E@#-0-raport-ga$prom-/0#0 7ls

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Pacuraru, ;osmin 1a!riel N SigurantaenergeticM ro - http"33www sigurantaenergeticM ro3wp-content3uploads3/00G30>3;atde-tare-ne-permitem-sa-suparam-Rusia doc

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Pacuraru, ;osmin 1a!riel- Europe and the impossi!ility of energetic security management Strategic 6mpact nr 2 %A0) /0##, U',P, pag #0@
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Europa eu - http"33eur-le7 europa eu39e7UriServ39e7UriServ doPuriQ;E9ES">/0#0C;0DEE"R8"'8T

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6nforusia ro - http"33inforusia ro3inde7 phpPoptionQcom<contentRviewQarticleRidQ>>//"companii-energetice-europeneau-o!tinut-modificarea-contractelor-cu-ga$promRcatidQ2@"politicaR6temidQ>D 31 Europe eu - http"33eur-le7 europa eu39e7UriServ39e7UriServ doPuriQ;E9ES">/0#0C;0D2G"R8"'8T 32 6onescu, 1eorgeta- Shale gas, a new challange, ,9M,-R8 ,ssociation, .uly /0#/ http"33issuu com3almaro3docs3!rosura<ga$e<de<sist
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TJR 6nfo - http"33www tvrinfo ro3director-romga$--scandalul-privind-hidrocracarea-este-intretinut-de-cineva<#EA0# html

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The 1overnmental Program /0#/- The Romanian 1overnments we!site http"33www gov ro3upload3articles3##E2//3programul-de-guvernare-/0#/ pdf