Nihaan Shahzad Section 1

Development Economics Assignment 4

Summary: From the latter half of the 20th Century onwards, Chinas Population has been undergoing several dramatic changes and the statistics indicate that it has achieved the LowFertility Stage. However, whether those changes imply that China has undergone complete Demographic Transition is still very much a debatable topic among scholars and academia. This paper, Has China Completed Demographic Transition, by Jiang Leiwen, attempts to explore this issue by affirming whether China has actually achieved Demographic Transition and whether it has entered the Post-Demographic Transition Stage. The theory of Demographic Transition, in broad terms, states that societies undergo the process of progress from an initial stage of high fertility and mortality, to one that is characterized by low fertility and mortality. Even though the theory was developed considering the countries of Western Europe, it still holds exceedingly well, when applied to the case of Non-European countries. In almost all observations, a decline in mortality, followed by a decrease in fertility, paved the way for a decrease in population growth, even under very diverse Socio-Economic circumstances. While economic development has generally been complemented by a decrease in fertility, it is essentially, not a pre-requisite for the former. Demographic Indicators can be used as measures of the completeness of Demographic Transition, however, the opinion as to which indicators are the most useful, differs among economists. The most commonly used indicators include the Crude Birth Rate, Death Rate and the Natural Population Growth Rate; however, some economists prefer using the TFR and Life Expectancy at Birth. These indicators must be very carefully used and their application may differ from the developing to the developed countries. After the selection of the pertinent indicators, the next step is to determine the bottom line values of the indicators, at and above which, any nation can be said to have undergone Demographic Transition. This can be a challenging task, as there is no absolute consensus as to these values and they vary across time, for example the UN has revised, several times, what it considers to be its definition of Low fertility.

After discussing the basic model and the criterion regarding the Demographic Transition Model, the author, discusses Chinas demographic transition since 1950. Prior to 1949, Chinas population multiplication was characterized by high rates of mortality (20%) and fertility (37%). However, post-1949, after attaining the status of a Peoples Republic, China entered a phase of stability, spurring the process of demographic transition. As seen in the example of other countries, China first experienced a decline in mortality which continued 1950 onwards (except in 1959-61) and eventually in the mid1960s, China achieved Low-Death Rate. Nevertheless, it reached the required Life Expectancy at Birth (65) in 1975. Fertility decline took place 20 years after Mortality decline, initiated by the efficient Family Planning Measures set forth, which roughly contributed 60-70% in the decline of fertility rates. While the scholars do have consensus over China entering the Low-Fertility Stage, many are skeptical regarding the completeness of the said transition. They argue that (1) Fertility level is still unstable and can shoot up any time, (2) Chinas decline happened very abruptl y, so its long term effects are still unobserved and (3) Geographic disparities mean that the Demographic Transition process is very unequal across the nation. It is accepted that China underwent demographic transition without the complementary socioeconomic development, and essentially was the result of a strictly imposed policy, regardless of what the people actually desired in terms of Family Size. So the question that arises is, whether in the absence of such policies, would the fertility rate revert to its initial value, since people are no longer bound by policy? The answer is not necessarily. As long as the driving factors, exogenous or endogenous, contribute to lower fertility, they are a step toward complete demographic transition. In addition, socio-economic development has played a significant role in the process as well, indicated by lower fertility rates in Urban China in the 1960s, where the socio-economic development was relatively high. Eventually in the 1990s, Chinas fertility rate dropped to below replacement, whence it also became a middle-income country. Even though China completed its demographic transition more quickly, compared to Europe, it does not imply an unstable transition when paralleled with other Asian countries that have completed the process. Hence, fertility decline is expected to persist in China. Moreover, socioeconomic disparities among Rural and Urban China, when taken into consideration, reveal that fertility decline follows the same pattern in both albeit being slower in the former. Further

statistics reveal that despite regional disparities, most regions of China have undergone demographic transition. Many economists assert that China has entered the Post-Demographic Transition Stage; nevertheless it is important to understand the concept behind this affirmation. According to Leete, who introduced the concept of post-demographic transition in Asia, a country would be a Post-Demographic country if its fertility level dropped and then stayed at that low level for some time, judged by several indicators. Moreover, the concept of Second Transition proposed by Van de Kaa which describes four new trends, compared to the first demographic transition of Europe: Cohabitation, King-Pair with Child, Self-Fulfilling Contraceptive and Pluralism. He stresses that such cultural and technological trends enable people to embrace the second demographic transition. China, itself is in the middle of Industrialization and has a long way to go before it becomes a truly welfare society. Hence, Chinas rural population is not yet ready to adopt the Second Demographic Transition, but may be spurred to it by the ready urban population. In order to affirm whether there has actually been a process of the Second Demographic Transition, evidence must be reviewed. The marriage rate in China has been on the rise since the 1950s, leading to fewer children (via smaller fertility interval), in some part driven by Later Marriage Policy. The question of whether this is indicative of complete transition can be answered after observing the trend for a longer period of time. In addition, statistics reveal there has also been an increase in Pre-Marital Co-Habitation, although this is low compared to other western countries. Historically, the Divorce Rate in China was very low (Ideological Clash) compared to Europe. However, this figure has been increasing slowly and steadily to the extent that its now becoming quite common, and the institution of marriage is becoming less stable. Surveys have also indicated a decrease in desired Family Size, this being most significant in the West rural Region. A move to even remain childless is also prevalent among some Chinese people and this trend is likely to increase. From the above discussion, one can conclude that China, as a whole, has completed the process of Demographic Transition despite the problems of unstable fertility and regional differences. Furthermore, Chinas transition proves that socio-economic development is not necessarily a precursor of Demographic Transition. Reviewing the evidence, one can also assume that China will undergo the Second demographic Transition as well, after some time.