Global Cement & Clinker Trade: Prospects to 2025

Elaine Chen
Ocean Shipping Consultants, UK www.osclimited.com

Structure
Cement Demand Cement & Clinker Trade Cement Shipping Future Outlook

World Cement Consumption 1981 2011

Cement Consumption b! "e#ion

Cement $emand Gro%t& b! "e#ion

Cement Trade and S&ippin#

!out "#$% o& world cement consumption is traded Estimated '()mt in *+'' ,"%!out ./#$+% o& world cement trade is mo0ed !1 sea Estimated '*)mt in *+'' ,."%-

World Cement Trade 199' 2011

Cement Trade b! "e#ion 2011

Trade: (mports Gro%t& b! "e#ion 199' 2011

Trade: )*ports Gro%t& b! "e#ion 199' 2011

Cement S&ippin#
2ulk carried out !1 !oth general !ulk carriers and specialist cement carriers &&ected !1
Demand & suppl1 o& specialist cement carriers Demand & suppl1 o& general !ulk carriers

Specialist Cement Carriers + Si,e Pro-ile

3orld &leet ,*+''-4 /*( 0essels, *../m D3T Sel&#unloaders
5" 0essels ,**%+.5)m dwt ,)/%0erage 5,$++dwt

WORLD CEMENT CARRIER FLEET - BY TYPE (NUMBER OF VESSELS, 2011)

OTHERS 78% SELFUNLOADERS 22%

Other 0essels
))' 0essels ,.$%'.$m dwt ,((%0erage ",/(+dwt

Specialist Cement Carriers + .#e Pro-ile

6on#sel&#unloader new!uildings ha0e sharpl1 decreased since the *+++s Onl1 ' sel&#unloader added during '55(# *++", !ut higher num!er since 6ew orders dominated !1 sel&#unloaders

CEMENT CARRIER FLEET BY TYPE & YEAR OF BUILD

60
SELF-UNLOADERS

N u m b e r o f V e s s e ls

50 40 30 20 10 0

OTHERS

-1965 1966- 1971- 1976- 1981- 1986- 1991- 1996- 2001- 200670 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 11

Specialist Cement Carriers + /la# Pro-ile and )mplo!ment

3ide 0ariet1 in terms o& geographic spread and sailing patterns 7inks !etween emplo1ment pattern and
Flag ,con0enience &lag 0s. national &lag8essel si9e Operators

General 0ulk Carriers + Sector 12er2ie%

Dictated !1 Capesi9e 0essels
Tonnage Freight

Knock#on e&&ects on other smaller#si9e sectors Cement shipping in&luenced !1 &actors outside the cement sector cti0e in cement transport are Small:;and1 si9e, with some ;and1ma<es, and occasionall1 =anama<es

General 0ulk Carriers + "ecent Capacit! $e2elopment

BULK CARRIER FLEET : DEVELOPMENT BY SIZE SECTOR 2001-11 (END-YEAR)
250 2001 200 m illio n D W T 150 100 50 0 2005 2011e

0erage tonnage4
*++"4 "(,)++ ,e*+''4 .+,'++ ,e-

10--40

40--60

60--80

80+

E&&ect o& the increasing importance o& Capesi9e 0essels

Vessel Size ('000 DWT)

General 0ulk Carriers + /rei#&t 3olatilit!

BALTIC DRY INDEX 2003-11
12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011*

General 0ulk Carriers +

4atest $e2elopment and (mplications
Current low &reight rates >ncreased scrapping in past 1ears, esp. in *+'' Still signi&icant tonnage on order Continued &leet e<pansion e<pected
Concentrated in the upper si9e classes lso increase &or the '+#/+,+++ dwt sector 3eak market conditions

1utlook 2025: Cement & Clinker Trade Gro%t&

1utlook 2025: Trade Gro%t& b! "e#ion

O0erall, import 0olumes to !e dominated !1
&rica sia

>mport growth prospects to *+*"4

7arge#scale growth &or &rica and 6. merica 7imited e<pansion &or Europe, sia, C:S merica E0entual declines &or the ?E, and Oceania

1utlook 2025: (mports Gro%t& b! "e#ion

Cement Studies
6ew stud1 pu!lished in *+'* @World Cement Trade & S&ippin# & the outlook to *+*"5 *+''4 6World Cement to 20255 Countr1#!1#countr1 &orecasts and anal1ses

T&ank 7ou8
Elaine Chen
Email4 e.chenAro1alhaskoning.com 3e!4 www.osclimited.com
Ocean Shipping Consultants is part of Royal Haskoning