GS - Charts That Matter Next Week-Oct13 PDF

SECURITIES DIVISION
GS Techs The Charts That Matter Next Week

Thursday 17th October 2013
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Spotting themes in the market place

This percentage change scatter chart helps us to identify where trends in the FX market are extending or turning on a week on week basis
Performance vs Anchor Currency In this case the performance of all currencies is displayed vs the USD with the exception of PLN, CZK, HUF, SEK and NOK which are tracked vs the EUR First Across and then Up or Down The %age change last week is displayed on the x-axis and the %age change so far this week is displayed on the y-axis Displayed as if the Base Currency If a currency shows a positive %age change it means it strengthened vs its anchor currency (USD/XZY or EUR/XZY fell) if a currency shows a negative %age change it means it weakened vs its anchor currency (USD/XZY or EUR/EYZ rallied) Four Quadrants Top right is Strong and Stronger where a currency has strengthened for both of the past two weeks, bottom right is Strong then Weak where a currency strengthened last week but weakened this week, bottom left is Weak and Weaker where a currency weakened for both of the past two weeks and top left is Weak then Strong where a currency weakened last week but strengthened this week Trending or Turning Simplistically speaking if a currency appears in the top right quadrant it indicates its trending higher and if a currency appears in the bottom left it indicates its trending lower. If it appears in the bottom right it is turning lower and if it appears in the top left it is turning higher A chart of this type will now be included most weeks. Were very open to suggestions of possible future topics for the TOT to TRACK.
Past performance is not an indicator of future results. Future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original investment may occur.
Chart as of: Thursday 17th October 2013

FX and Rates Strategies From the Trading Desk
Goldman Sachs does not provide accounting, tax or legal advice; such matters should be discussed with your advisors and or counsel. This material is intended for illustrative purposes only and is not intended to be used as a general guide to investing, or as a source of any specific investment recommendations, and is no indication (implied or express) as to the manner in which any clients account should or would be handled, as appropriate investment strategies depend upon t he clients investment objectives.
A quick overview of the technical outlook
Data Source: Bloomberg

Date: Thursday 17th October 2013







Markets which could be the next big story

Time to watch for signals that the U.S. 2-yr/10-yr curve is set to flatten For EURUSD the Germany/U.S. 2-year spread is likely critical
The initial flattening trend from Jan. 11 to May 12 appears to have broken into 5-waves (which is how underlying trends often begin in Elliott terms). That flattening trend also began when the curve stood close to the highs of its multi-decade range. So far the 76.4% retrace of the initial flattening trend is holding well. Weekly oscillators are beginning to cross lower (again) to complete triple negative weekly divergence. Overall a significant flattening of the curve appears likely over time (potentially bullishly initially given the signals of a top in place on U.S. 10-year yields with 2-year yields like more range bound in relative terms). The setup on the 2-/30-year curve is similar.
This really seems an incredibly important chart to have on the radar. When the 2-year spread does eventually make a clean break from its multi-year consolidation (pivots at 0bps and -33bps) it will likely be a very important development (for the spread itself and EURUSD spot given the tight correlation between the two highlighted later in the chart pack).
U.S. 10-year yields preparing to move lower?...

On the daily chart have begun to retrace from the 2.741-2.744% pivot Attempting to push back below old primary downtrend from 07 at 2.624%
Compared to the sharp drop from the Aug. highs and the relatively quick move down over the past couple of sessions, the bounce in yields from the 3rd Oct. low to the recent high looks quite corrective in nature. Given the clean/clear break of the uptrend from 3rd May which is already in place, coupled with a move below the 55-dma after a stretched number of consecutive daily closes above, risks look increasingly skewed towards a notable decline in 10-year yields. There are various points to watch below the market, but at face value the gap to the 200dma at 2.24% is large.
If a clean weekly close back below this level is achieved it should be another signal that a notable peak in yields has already been set (particularly given the setup will look very similar to that which developed at the Feb. 11 highs when a similar false break above the then primary downtrend was achieved). The next level to watch is the 200-wma at 2.519% and also 2.606% as a close below that point on Friday will cause a weekly reversal towards lower yields to be posted. The big pivot should be 2.42-2.33% where three notable interim highs/lows were set from Oct. 10 to Mar. 12.
Similar setup on the U.S. 30-year yield daily chart

The recent turn lower developed after an extreme trend above the 55-dma, similar to that seen as yields moved into the Feb. 11 peak (prior to a notable downtrend developing)
At the start of this week yields ticked back above the 55dma, but that move looks false, as it was in early-Mar. and early-Apr. 11 when a similar underlying setup to now was in place (highlighted in red on the chart). On Wednesday a key day towards lower yields was posted. Overall further decline in yields seems likely with the next clear pivot being centred on 3.49-3.46% (converged series of notable lows/highs set from Aug. 10 to Mar. 12). The 200-dma is all the way down at 3.368%.
On the LT 30-year chart must keep in mind monthly patterns

As a reminder in Aug./Sep. against the 61.8% retrace of the drop from the Apr. 10 high to the Jul. 12 low (and from just beneath the primary channel/trend resistance off the Sep. 90 peak) yields posted a pair of clear exhaustion candles
Monthly oscillators are now attempting to cross down from the highs of their recent range too. Overall it looks as though a significant period of consolidation/retrace of the rise in yields from Jul. 12 onwards (at least) is likely. Its far too early to actively argue for this, but it needs to be kept in mind that a notable cyclical peak could have been set.
This should again link back into a flattening of the curve?..

A reminder of the multi-year oscillator nature of the 2-/10-year curve Weekly chart implies good potential for trend flattening
The proximity of the highs of the multi-year range seems to make this an ideal level against which to watch for any signs of the curve preparing to enter a flattening trend (which the weekly setup highlighted again opposite seems to imply is likely).
As highlighted in the Theme Radar earlier in the chart pack, the weekly setup continues to look really interesting. The initial Jan. 11/May 12 drop appears to break into a clear 5wave sequence, the recovery from the May 12 low then appears potentially a corrective ABC into the 76.4% retrace of the initial flattening. In short this looks a classic setup from which to see the curve again flatten materially (particularly given the ve weekly oscillator divergence which developed against the recent series of marginal new trend highs).
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This again points back to the DXY 95/96 comparison

Some further DXY weakness looks possible after uptrend break The market continues to follow a similar pattern to 95/96
The interim lows from Jan./Sep. are now converged ~1.15-1.55% below current levels. The markets inability to sustain back above the low from Jun. at 80.50 and the risk of a bearish weekly reversal if Fridays 5pm NY close is set below 79.837 should indicate that a move to this region is increasingly likely (particularly taking into account the cross asset signals, especially yields, discussed on the prior slides). The fact weekly oscillators are moving very close to the base of their recent range does however argue against looking for a protracted/extend period of weakness.
From the Apr. 95 low into the May 96 high the market formed what at the time would probably have appeared to be a bearish wedge. The market broke sharply lower from that formation in mid-Jul. 96, but it didnt fulfill what arguably could have been the target; a move to new cycle lows, instead after one sharp weekly drop and two further weeks of gradual decline it entered a broad based sideways consolidation for ~5-months. Eventually it then accelerated higher again in late-Nov/Dec. 96.
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Some further EURUSD upside fits with monthly patterns

In Sep. EURUSD posted a bullish monthly reversal pattern as a continuation signal, looking back over the past decade these have tended to be important (arguing for at least some further upside in the following months on the majority of occasions)
The next ST level to watch should be the recent trend high from Feb. at 1.3711 and then the primary downtrend from the Jul. 08 peak at 1.4002 (its worth keeping in mind assuming equal %age moves that the base of the recent range on the DXY implies something in the region of ~1.3815-1.3865 on EURUSD).
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This seems to generate quite a +ve backdrop for the S&P

The market has only recently broken to new all time highs A bullish weekly reversal was posted last week
The trend across the prior major highs from Mar. 00/Oct. 07 and the peak from Oct. 07 itself, which are converged 1,594-1,576, should now be the big pivot support to watch. Thus far with the breaks which are in place it seems best to give the market the benefit of the doubt, i.e. not actively look for a major peak/downside turn until clear longer-term negative signals develop (which they dont seem to have done yet). The only thing clearly giving a cautionary message is the fact that monthly oscillators are back near the highs of their recent range, but this has not proved a particularly useful signal in the past until negative divergence has developed.
There have been nine such patterns posted since mid-11 and six worked well (indicated by the + and - symbols on the chart). Therefore while not having a perfect track record this seems to emphasise that the recent sell off was met with good demand. On the daily chart (not shown) 1,709-1,710 was a notable ST resistance point (converged interim high from 2nd Aug. and 76.4% retrace of the 19th Sep./9th Oct. drop) which the market closed above on Wednesday. This should further support the potential for the index to move to new highs over time. Its also probably now a decent support point to watch if the market does retrace again.
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The VIX just maintains its chain of lower-highs

Last weeks peak being set at 21.34, i.e. fractionally below the prior interim top from Jun. this year at 21.91
The sharp reversal from last weeks extreme also caused the market to post a bearish engulfing week (the Japanese candle equivalent of a bearish weekly reversal). It now basically looks as though the VIX is likely set to move into an ~22/12 range (the chain of lower-lows which developed from Mar. 12 onwards has already been broken as the market has set two higher lows since the trend base from Mar. this year). Reading into this it would seem to imply that market concern has likely peaked for now, but is no longer in the broad declining channel/wedge in which it oscillated from Jun. 12 onwards.
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Is all this a recipe for Gold to rally?..

The daily chart is beginning to look more constructive A bullish weekly reversal will be posted if Fridays close is above ~1,430
Tuesdays intraday low was set just above the 76.4% retrace of the 28th Jun./28th Aug. rally at 1,240 (the late recovery that day caused a hammer blowout candle pattern to ultimately be posted against the trend base). The important daily close pivot to watch now should be 1,301-1,311 where the downtrend from Aug.s high and 21-dma are converged, particularly given the overlapping nature of the drop from Aug.s peak. The big question is whether a broader recovery towards 1,433-39 can develop (Aug. high and 200-dma). Daily oscillators are attempting to diverge +vely against the recent marginal new lows.
Given the longer-term structure of the market; aggressive break lower from a multimonth range earlier this year, overlapping ABC like recovery from the Jun. low and big resistance band starting at ~1,433, there doesnt seem enough evidence to argue for a more sustained recovery/uptrend at this point.
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Platinum looks pretty interesting too

Potentially forming a clear reverse H&S to project ~1,815 The reverse H&S also seems very clear on the daily chart
This follows the market making a false break below the Dec. 11 low at 1,338 and posting a near perfect 76.4% retrace of the initial Jun./Aug. rally before bouncing again. A bullish weekly reversal will be posted if Fridays close is above 1,406.24. The pivot of the reverse H&S pattern should be 1,522-1,533 where the 55-wma and interim high from Aug. are converged (i.e. a close above here should start to confirm the pattern in place and the resultant projection target of ~1,815). Next resistance to watch should be the downtrend from Mar. 08 at 1,689.
Positive divergence formed against the most recent marginal new trend lows and the downtrend from the 4th Sep. high has also been broken. Besides the weekly chart pivots highlighted opposite it will now be important to watch price action closely if and when the 200-dma up at 1,502 is tested.
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Is this finally cross asset support for ve signals on USDZAR?..

USDZARs monthly chart hints at the potential for a major top to be set On the weekly chart a drop to 9.40-9.32 looks quite possible
The Aug. peak at 10.51 was within the multi-year resistance band formed by the converged downtrend from the Dec. 01 high and 76.4% retrace of the Oct. 08/May 11 drop which were converged 10.47-62. Monthly oscillators are also attempting to cross down from quite close to their multi-year range highs. These monthly chart signals have been in place for a number of weeks but its always been unclear what the cross asset rationale was for ZAR to recover (rising U.S. rates were generally considered a ve as was weakness in the Gold market, but both now seem to be reversing). It seems theres potentially a far more ZAR-supportive backdrop in place.
Weekly price action from late-May onwards potentially looks quite heavy too as the market has never really made a true/sustained weekly rally since that time, most weeks it has tried to push beyond ~10.30 it has tended to subsequently corrected lower to leave a ve weekly candle against the trend peak. A test of big pivot support below running 9.40-9.32 looks quite possible (converged uptrend from Jul. 11, Mar. 13 interim high and 55-wma). Weekly oscillators developed clear ve divergence against the recent marginal new trend highs to help confirm the upmove had become exhausted.
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While on the topic of ZAR, a really interesting cross is ZARJPY

The market has potentially set a double bottom against the 76.4% retrace of the Oct. 12/Apr. 13 rally with a neckline at 10.4089, a weekly close above which could project 11.2434
The marginal new trend lows from late-Aug. vs those of early-Jun. have enabled the pair to develop +ve divergence against the base of the recent decline highlighting the downtrend off the Apr. peak has likely lost momentum. Weekly moving averages are tightly clustered theoretically indicating the market is trend ready.
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The 200-dma should be the critical pivot on USDJPY at 97.10

As discussed many times over recent weeks the market has been above it on a close basis for a stretched period (now up to 241 consecutive daily closes above as of Wednesday)
On most occasions since the mid-90s when this sort of stretch has developed a notable downside correction has subsequently taken place. However, in this case , given price action off the May peak still looks potentially like a bullish continuation pattern (possibly in its final stages of formation) and the underlying setup looks quite like 9597 when the trend extended to ~450 consecutive daily closes above the 200-dma, for now it seems best to give the market the benefit of the doubt and hold with bullish exposure/a +ve bias until/if a daily close (5pm NY) is achieved below the 200-dma. The big upside pivot to watch should be 99.61-67 where the downtrend from Mays peak, interim high from 20th Sep. and 76.4% retrace of the 11th Sep./8th Oct. drop are converged.
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Again a reminder of why the 200-dma looks so important

The market has set 241 consecutive daily closes above the 200-dma which is very stretched by recent standards, but was materially exceeded in 95/96/97
The only time a substantially more extended trend above (or below) the 200dma has developed over the past two decades was in 95/96/97
At 241 consecutive daily closes above the 200-dma (as of Wednesdays 5pm NY close) USDJPYs uptrend is moving into quite extreme territory. Substantially more than 200 consecutive daily closes above (or below) this moving average is usually unsustainable (looking back over the past two decades)
In 96 the closest USDJPY moved to the 200-dma was 81 pips above on 5th Aug. at which point it had set 257 consecutive closes above
200-dma now at 97.10
+456
+228
+207
+247 -248 -203 -217
+241
Tracks the number of consecutive daily closes the market has made above/below its 200-dma
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How big are initial retracements on a break of the 200-dma?...

This chart looks at four examples where a similarly stretched trend to this above the 200dma has developed and what subsequently happens when the moving average breaks
The actual stats are shown on the charts, but in simple terms, the average initial drop when the market breaks below the 200-dma after an extended trend above (based on these four examples) is 5.32 big figures (for specifics on each case please see the chart).
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Correlated market implications

USDJPYs been a Nikkei (risk appetite) trade rather than a rate trade The Nikkei itself also remains in a broad consolidation
This chart shows USDJPY spot in blue, the Nikkei in red and an equally weighted basket of the U.S./Japan 2-/5-/10-year yield spreads in green. It highlights that for at least 6-months the true link has been with the Nikkei (i.e. risk appetite) and not U.S./Japan spreads. With this in mind while the recent sharp drop in U.S. yields which has shifted spreads in the JPYs favour may well have been associated with USDJPY moving lower so far during Thursdays session, the real determinant of the next USDJPY trend should more likely be the performance of the Nikkei and broader asset markets globally.
As with USDJPY given the underlying structure of the market (which looks quite positive) bias is to look for an eventual push higher. The key pivot above should be the 76.4% retrace of the 23rd May/13th Jun. drop at 15,110 as the market has respected this particular retracement quite well on numerous occasions over recent months. With this in mind its worth noting that the market has just ticked above the most recent 76.4% retrace at 14,565 (as happened at the 27th Sep. high too), the retraces are however holding as support against the lows, could this indicate the market is preparing to break higher?
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Some other Cross/JPY markets are at big pivots

94.45-94.90 looks to be a huge pivot on AUDJPY Thinking about the AUDUSD leg, the reverse H&S target at 0.9601 is hit
Converged in this region are the interim high from 19th Sep., 200-dma and neckline of a possible reverse H&S. The confusing thing about this particular cross is that the initial decline from the 11th Apr. high to the 7th Aug. low appears to break into 5-waves which is often how broader downtrends begin. Given this its difficult to know how much emphasis to put on the H&S pattern. Overall the way price action develops around here will likely be critical; signs of a top/turn lower could fit with the potential ve implications of the prior 5-wave sequence, where as a meaningful close above could argue the reverse H&S interpretation is correct .
If a material daily close above the H&S target is achieved (which would also by default give a clean break above the spike low from Jun. 12 at 0.9581) it could open some further upside with the 200-dma up at 0.9767 as the next potential target.
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BRLJPY is testing a similarly important pivot

Three notable points are converged 45.38-45.79 USDBRL itself nears its big pivot support centred on ~2.10
In this region are the interim high from 19th Sep., neckline of a possible reverse H&S and the 200-dma. Very similar to AUDJPY as discussed on the prior slide, a clean close above this region is likely needed prior to establishing bullish exposure (it would potentially complete the reverse H&S to project a target of 51.00, very close to the trend high from May at 51.02). Any signs of a peak here will also likely have to be taken seriously as triple negative daily oscillator divergence could potentially develop following the recent series of marginal new trend highs.
This should be the first level against which to watch for signs of the markets decline losing momentum (the interim peak from early-Dec. 12, 55-wma and uptrend from Jul. 11 are converged around this point). Signs of a base here would likely be important, but it is probably too early to look for subsequent underlying uptrend resumption given the almost two-year rally prior to this correction beginning, i.e. the retrace seen so far would seem extremely shallow in terms of time relative to the prior move which it is theoretically correcting.
Basically a significant move seems likely in the not too distant future. How USDJPY performs around its 200-dma may have a lot to do with the eventual direction of a break.
Goldman Sachs does not provide accounting, tax or legal advice; such matters should be discussed with your advisors and or counsel. This material is intended for illustrative purposes only and is not intended to be used as a general guide to investing, or as a source of any specific investment recommendations, and is no indication (implied or express) as to the manner in which any clients account should or would be handled, as appropriate investment strategies depend upon t he clients investment objectives. Past performance is not an indicator of future results. Future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original investment may occur.
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A couple of other EM highlights

USDTHB breaks its uptrend from the Apr. lows USDRUB turns heavy after re-testing its broken uptrend from Feb.
This puts focus on the neckline of a potential H&S topping structure and related break confirmation point which run 30.87-85. A close below that region could at least open the 200-dma down at 30.42 and potentially further if a move toward the full H&S top target was to take place.
The double top like pattern which has completed against the trend high from Jul./Sep. theoretically projects ~30.99 (nearly 3% below current levels). First support to watch 31.51-31.49 where the interim lows from Sep./Jun. are converged.
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An update on the Eurozone markets...

IBEX/DAX ratio is now testing the converged 100-wma/Jan. 13 high The structure of the IBEX continues to look particularly positive
The pivot runs 1.103-1.123. A weekly close above this region should theoretically complete a double bottom pattern to project 1.2983, i.e. ~12% above the pivot (neckline).
The reverse H&S which has been completed here theoretically gives a projection target of ~11,841 (a little below the post financial crisis high from Jan. 10 at 12,240). Looking at the daily chart (not shown), after the recent very impulsive uptrend there are some ST signs of exhaustion; a mild shooting star like candle pattern was posted against the highs on Thursday and the market is very over-bought in oscillator terms. This likely increases the risks of a retrace towards the 21-dma which stands down at 9,415, but likely a dip to that level should be an opportunity to establish bullish exposure at more attractive levels.
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Same story for the MIB

The market has continued higher since completing a reverse H&S The MIB/S&P ratio has pushed above its 100-wma/-ve trend from Apr. 07
Again on the daily chart (not shown) the market is now at over-bought levels in oscillator terms so some consolidation/retrace may be necessary. The 21-dma stands down at 18,329 as the first clear support/pivot point to watch. However, given this underlying structure dips really seem likely to be opportunities to establish bullish exposure at more attractive levels.
The big pivot to watch should be the Jan. high at 11.89 (~7% above current levels). The 200-wma then stands an even greater ~24.5% above here.
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Is this +ve periph. setup ultimately set to pull EURCHF higher?..

Following Sep.s clear out below, the 200-dma again becomes support? The 55-wma at 1.2256 begins to act as support?
The moving average currently comes in at 1.2320 and Thursdays intraday low (1.2312) was set only just below it. Subsequently the market has recovered. Could a double bottom like pattern be forming against the 24th Jun. low at 1.2217? Pivot resistance to watch on the upside should be the downtrend from 9th Jul. at 1.2386.
This historically important moving average for FX has started to act as support (particularly on a weekly close basis). Could this be a signal that the market is beginning to build a base (supported by the strong performance of the peripheral asset markets). The post-floor high from May and 200-wma are converged up at 1.2650-62 as a potential upside target/pivot to watch (its worth keeping in mind that the IBEX and MIB have only recently closed back above their 200-wmas for the first time since the financial crisis began in earnest back in 08 could EURCHF therefore be the next market to do the same?).
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Other peripheral markets are now also looking exciting

The Greek composite index for instance is testing a major pivot running 1,160-1,169
The post crisis high from May and the 200-wma (which the index has been below on a weekly close basis since Jun. 08) being converged in this region. A clear weekly close above it (as seems likely eventually; the market appears to have been forming a bullish consolidation over recent months) should act as confirmation of a significant turn in LT trend in place (i.e. possibly the end of the bear trend which started at the Nov. 07 highs). The next clear pivot to watch/target to look for should be 1,458-1,462 where the lows from Mar. 03 and Mar. 09 are converged. Theoretically though a much larger recovery could develop; the entire decline from the Sep. 99 high to the Jun. 12 low could be a big ABC like correction (the low, in the grand scheme of things, was set what seems only marginally above the related equality target).
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The ASE also looks potentially quite +ve vs the Dax too
The ASE/DAX ratio bases just above an equality projection from Sep. 99 The weekly chart potentially looks very constructive
Even the primary downtrend from 99 stands over 150% above current levels.
This is particularly the case in Elliott terms; the initial rally from the May 12 low to the Feb. 13 high appears to break into a clear 5-wave sequence and the pull back from there looks like a corrective/overlapping retrace of that initial uptrend. The 200-wma as a potential initial target stands ~38% above current levels.
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Disclaimer for clients

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Disclaimer for clients (cont.)

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Indicative Terms/Pricing Levels: This material may contain indicative terms only, including but not limited to pricing levels. There is no representation that any transaction can or could have been effected at such terms or prices. Proposed terms and conditions are for discussion purposes only. Finalized terms and conditions are subject to further discussion and negotiation. OTC Derivatives Risk Disclosures:
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Early Termination Payments: The provisions of an OTC Derivative Transaction may allow for early termination and, in such cases, either you or Goldman Sachs may be required to make a potentially significant termination payment depending upon whether the OTC Derivative Transaction is in-the-money to Goldman Sachs or you at the time of termination. Indexes: Goldman Sachs does not warrant, and takes no responsibility for, the structure, method of computation or publication of any currency exchange rates, interest rates, indexes of such rates, or credit, equity or other indexes, unless Goldman Sachs specifically advises you otherwise. Goldman Sachs is not regulated in Ukraine. You should ensure that you have all necessary licences to hold cash / securities (as applicable) offshore. GOLDMAN SACHS AND ITS AFFILIATES NEITHER UNDERTAKE BANKING, FINANCIAL, OR INVESTMENT CONSULTATION BUSINESS IN OR INTO THE UAE WITHIN THE MEANING OF THE CENTRAL BANK BOARD OF DIRECTORS' RESOLUTION NO. 164/8/94 REGARDING THE REGULATION FOR INVESTMENT COMPANIES NOR PROVIDE FINANCIAL ANALYSIS OR CONSULTATION SERVICES IN OR INTO THE UAE WITHIN THE MEANING OF EMIRATES SECURITIES AND COMMODITIES AUTHORITY DECISION NO. 48/R OF 2008 CONCERNING FINANCIAL CONSULTATION AND FINANCIAL ANALYSIS.
Notice to South African Investors Goldman Sachs does not provide tax, accounting, investment or legal advice to our clients, and all clients are advised to consult with their own advisers regarding any potential investment/transaction. This material is for discussion purposes only, and does not purport to contain a comprehensive analysis of the risk/rewards of any idea or strategy herein. Any potential investment/transaction described within is subject to change and Goldman Sachs Internal approvals. Goldman Sachs International is an authorised financial services provider in South Africa under the Financial Advisory and Intermediary Services (FAIS) Act, 2002. However it is exempt from certain provisions of that act with respect to Certain Cl ients, which may include you, by virtue of the Notice on Amendment of Exemptions 2012.
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34

Notice to New Zealand Investors When this document is disseminated in New Zealand by Goldman, Sachs & Co., this document, and any access to it, is intended only for a person that has first satisfied Goldman Sachs that the person is someone:
whose principal business is the investment of money or who, in the course of and for the purposes of their business, habitually invests money; or to whom an offer of the interests may be made in circumstances that do not constitute an offer to the public for the purpos es of section 3 (excluding section 3(2)(a)(iia)) or section 5(2CB) of the Securities Act 1978 (NZ).
No offer to acquire the interests is being made to you in this document. Any offer will only be made in circumstances where disclosure is not required under the Securities Act 1978 (NZ), the Securities Regulations 1983 (NZ) or the Securities Regulations 2009 (NZ).
Notice to Brazilian Investors The offer of any securities mentioned in this message may not be made to the general public in Brazil. Accordingly, any such securities have not been nor will they be registered with the Brazilian Securities Commission (Comisso de Valores Mobilirios) nor has any offer been submitted to the foregoing agency for approval. Documents relating to the offer, as well as the information contained therein, may not be supplied to the public in Brazil, as the offer is not a public offering of securities in Brazil. Ouvidoria Goldman Sachs Brasil: 0800 727 5764 e/ou ouvidoriagoldmansachs@gs.com Horrio de funcionamento: segunda-feira sexta-feira (exceto feriados), das 9hs s 18hs. Ombudsman Goldman Sachs Brazil: 0800 727 5764 and / or ouvidoriagoldmansachs@gs.com Available Weekdays (except holidays), from 9 am to 6 pm. More information
The ombudsman is a channel for the customer to make claims of products and services of Goldman Sachs that were not solved through usual channels. The service will be held by a person duly certified for this activity and to evaluate your claim the following principles will be used: transparency, independence and impartiality.
Notice to Chilean Clients Any securities discussed in this presentation have not been registered in the securities register kept by the Superintendencia de Valores y Seguros ("SVS"), as foreign securities, and, therefore, they are not subject to the supervision of the SVS. The securities are not directed to the Chilean Market, consequently, this message neither is nor constitutes and cannot be deemed as a public offer, as regulated in the Chilean Securities Market Law, N 18.045 (Ley de Mercado de Valores), of the securities to any Chilean resident.
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Notice to Colombian Investors For products and/or services marketed through the Goldman, Sachs & Co. Representative Office The products and/or services described herein are being marketed to you by the Representative Office (the Representative Office) of Goldman, Sachs & Co. (GS&Co.), which has been authorized by the Colombian Financial Superintendency (the Superintendency) to act in accordance with the provisions contained in Decree 2555 of 2010 (Decree 2555) and Chapter V, Title I of External Circular 007 of 1996 (Cir cular 007) issued by the Superintendency. GS&Co. will provide and/or render such products and/or services to you and, subject to the disclaimers described herein, assumes responsibility for such products and/or services. Subject to the disclaimers otherwise described herein, the legal, accounting, financial, commercial and administrative characteristics, including the applicable governing law, of the products and/or services are described herein or have otherwise been or will be provided to you. GS&Co. is registered as a broker-dealer and an investment adviser with, and is subject to the supervision of, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the SEC). GS&Co. is also registered as a futures commission merchant and a swap dealer with, and is subject to the supervision of, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (the CFTC). GS&Co. is a member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority ("FINRA"), the New York Stock Exchange, and the Securities Investor Protection Corporation (SIPC). SIPC protects SIPC-eligible assets custodied in GS&Co. accounts held in the same title and capacity up to an aggregate maximum of $500,000, of which $250,000 may be in cash. Assets not held by GS&Co. (including interests in private funds) and certain other assets are not subject to SIPC or supplemental insurance coverage. You may obtain information about SIPC, including a brochure describing SIPC and information about which assets are eligible for SIPC protection, by contacting SIPC via telephone at 202-371-8300 or accessing the SIPC website at www.sipc.org. None of the products and/or services of GS&Co. are insured by the FDIC (Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation). Any complaint regarding the promotional activities carried out by the Representative Office can be sent by mail to the following address in Colombia: Calle 67 No. 7-35, Oficina 1204, Bogot Colombia or directly to your sales professional. The Representative Office is not required under Colombian Law to have a customer ombudsman.
For offers of securities in the Republic of Colombia This material is for the clients sole and exclusive use and cannot be understood as being addressed to, or be used by, any third party, including but not limited to those third parties for which the addressee can legally or contractually represent. The securities have not been and will not be offered in the Republic of Colombia (Colombia) through a public offering pursuant to Colombian laws and regulations and will not be registered in the Colombian National Registry of Securities and Issuers or on the Colombian Stock Exchange. The client acknowledges that the Colombian laws and regulations (specifically foreign exchange and tax regulations) are applicable to any transaction or investment made in connection with the securities and that the client is the sole party liable for full compliance with any such laws and regulations. The investment in the securities is a permitted investment for the client under its corporate bylaws and/or particular applicable investment regime. Please contact your sales representative for further information about the securities and applicable selling restrictions.
Notice to Israeli Investors GS is not licensed to provide investment advice or investment management services under Israeli law.
2013 Goldman Sachs. All rights reserved.
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Disclaimer for clients based in Japan

Product Specific Risk Disclosure
The ideas detailed in this presentation may involve the purchase of options, in this case the premium paid may be lost if favourable market movement for the structure concerned does not take place.
/ / JCRR&I http://www2.content.gs.com/disclaimer/ratings.html
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GS - Charts That Matter Next Week-Oct13 PDF

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GS - Charts That Matter Next Week-Oct13 PDF

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SECURITIES DIVISION

GS Techs The Charts That Matter Next Week

Spotting themes in the market place

Chart as of: Thursday 17th October 2013

A quick overview of the technical outlook

Data Source: Bloomberg

Date: Thursday 17th October 2013

A quick overview of the technical outlook

Data Source: Bloomberg

Date: Thursday 17th October 2013

A quick overview of the technical outlook

Data Source: Bloomberg

Date: Thursday 17th October 2013

A quick overview of the technical outlook

Data Source: Bloomberg

Date: Thursday 17th October 2013

Markets which could be the next big story

FX and Rates Strategies From the Trading Desk

U.S. 10-year yields preparing to move lower?...

FX and Rates Strategies From the Trading Desk

Similar setup on the U.S. 30-year yield daily chart

FX and Rates Strategies From the Trading Desk

On the LT 30-year chart must keep in mind monthly patterns

FX and Rates Strategies From the Trading Desk

This should again link back into a flattening of the curve?..

FX and Rates Strategies From the Trading Desk

This again points back to the DXY 95/96 comparison

FX and Rates Strategies From the Trading Desk

Some further EURUSD upside fits with monthly patterns

FX and Rates Strategies From the Trading Desk

This seems to generate quite a +ve backdrop for the S&P

FX and Rates Strategies From the Trading Desk

The VIX just maintains its chain of lower-highs

FX and Rates Strategies From the Trading Desk

Is all this a recipe for Gold to rally?..

FX and Rates Strategies From the Trading Desk

Platinum looks pretty interesting too

FX and Rates Strategies From the Trading Desk

Is this finally cross asset support for ve signals on USDZAR?..

FX and Rates Strategies From the Trading Desk

While on the topic of ZAR, a really interesting cross is ZARJPY

FX and Rates Strategies From the Trading Desk

The 200-dma should be the critical pivot on USDJPY at 97.10

FX and Rates Strategies From the Trading Desk

Again a reminder of why the 200-dma looks so important

200-dma now at 97.10

+247 -248 -203 -217

FX and Rates Strategies From the Trading Desk

How big are initial retracements on a break of the 200-dma?...

FX and Rates Strategies From the Trading Desk

Correlated market implications

FX and Rates Strategies From the Trading Desk

Some other Cross/JPY markets are at big pivots

FX and Rates Strategies From the Trading Desk

BRLJPY is testing a similarly important pivot

FX and Rates Strategies From the Trading Desk

A couple of other EM highlights

FX and Rates Strategies From the Trading Desk

An update on the Eurozone markets...

FX and Rates Strategies From the Trading Desk

Same story for the MIB

FX and Rates Strategies From the Trading Desk

Is this +ve periph. setup ultimately set to pull EURCHF higher?..