Resort

Annual Attitude toward

Obs.

Visits

Income

1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2

Travel

Import. attached

Household

Age of Head of

Amt. Spent on

to Family Vacation

Size

Household

Family Vacation

50.2
70.3
62.9
48.5
52.7
75.0
46.2
57.0
64.1
68.1
73.4
71.9
56.2
49.3
62.0
32.1
36.2
43.2
50.4
44.1
38.3
55.0
46.1
35.0
37.3
41.8
57.0
33.4
37.5
41.3

5
6
7
7
6
8
5
2
7
7
6
5
1
4
5
5
4
2
5
6
6
1
3
6
2
5
8
6
3
3

8
7
5
5
6
7
3
4
5
6
7
8
8
2
6
4
3
5
2
6
6
2
5
4
7
1
3
8
2
3

3
4
6
5
4
5
3
6
4
5
5
4
6
3
2
3
2
2
4
3
2
2
3
5
4
3
2
2
3
2

43
61
52
36
55
68
62
51
57
45
44
64
54
56
58
58
55
57
37
42
45
57
51
64
54
56
36
50
48
42

2
3
3
1
3
3
2
2
3
3
3
3
2
3
3
1
1
2
2
2
1
2
1
1
1
2
2
1
1
1

Holdout Sample
1
1
50.8
2
1
63.6
3
1
54.0
4
1
45.0
5
1
68.0
6
1
62.1
7
2
35.0
8
2
49.6
9
2
39.4
10
2
37.0
11
2
54.5
12
2
38.2

4
7
6
5
6
5
4
5
6
2
7
2

7
4
7
4
6
6
3
3
5
6
3
2

3
7
4
3
6
3
4
5
3
5
3
3

45
55
58
60
46
56
54
39
44
51
37
49

2
3
2
2
3
3
1
1
3
1
2
1

2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30

Centroids
Group
X1
X2
X3
1
60.5200
5.4000
5.8000
2
41.9133
4.3333
4.0667
Training Sample Distances
Predicted
Obs
Group 1 Group 2
Group
1
7.0125
9.2095
1
2
1.6369 53.7836
1
3
5.2083 36.3018
1
4
9.7911 16.5366
1
5
6.6053 20.6809
1
6
6.8201 94.5936
1
7
6.2381
6.4997
1
8
6.9907 23.8334
1
9
1.1590 31.3676
1
10
3.2322 35.3985
1
11
5.3687 47.3635
1
12
3.3765 64.9060
1
13
8.7702 36.7041
1
14
6.8494 14.9828
1
15
4.9411 26.5059
1
16
16.6103
2.5027
2
17
14.7944
3.0525
2
18
8.0381
6.1870
2
19
10.8663
7.1477
2
20
6.6226
5.2083
2
21
14.3383
2.8295
2
22
29.0660
7.9977
2
23
12.2333
4.7702
2
24
27.5467
9.1967
2
25
14.0157
6.3845
2
26
8.4296
5.6433
2
27
22.1259
8.7950
2
28
25.3875
5.2294
2
29
13.1183
4.3311
2
30
19.3733
4.7245
2
Predicted
Actual Group 1 Group 2
Total
Group 1
15
0
15
Group 2
0
15
15
Total
15
15
% Correct 100.00%

Classification Sample Distances

X4
X5
4.3333 53.7333
2.8000 50.1333
Actual
Group
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2

Obs
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

Group 1
4.75
10.41
5.00
5.08
4.05
1.93
11.23
12.50
20.14
12.02
12.83
15.02

Group 2
7.06
46.15
19.81
5.13
42.31
24.24
3.05
15.23
31.33
10.72
5.22
5.10

Predicted

Group
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
1
1
2
2
2

Actual

Group ERROR
1
OK
1
OK
1
OK
1
OK
1
OK
1
OK
2
OK
2
ERROR
2
ERROR
2
OK
2
OK
2
OK

Predictive power = 10/12 = 83%

1. I re-coded the variables with a baseline of 0 being first value of the respective value sets. (see below)
2. Since Excel can only handle 16 independent variables, I ran this in SPSS as a Binary Logistic Regression.
This technique is used to Predict the presence or absence of a characteristic or outcome based on values of a set of predictor variables. This
procedure is similar to linear regression but is suited to models in which the dependent variable is dichotomous.
Coefficientsa

Model
1

Unstandardized
Coefficients
B
Std. Error
2.502
1.788
-.019
.024
.001
.016
-.226
.579
.569
.919
.226
.874
.020
.590
.111
.607
.194
.900
.424
.623
-.332
.562
-.766
.560
-.105
.698
-.385
.594
-.367
.618
-.104
.888
-.550
.595
.548
.414
.357
.400
.020
.460
-.105
.504
.235
.638
-.355
.687

(Constant)
Income
House-hold
Travel-2
Travel-3
Travel-4
Travel-5
Travel-6
Travel-7
Travel-8
Import.-2
Import.-3
Import.-4
Import.-5
Import.-6
Import.-7
Import.-8
Size-2
Size-4
Size-5
Size-6
Spend-2
Spend-3

Explanation

Standardized
Coefficients
Beta
-.474
.009
-.136
.341
.113
.017
.094
.132
.211
-.226
-.520
-.063
-.287
-.274
-.071
-.374
.485
.285
.015
-.063
.222
-.335

The higher income the more likely you are to go on vacation.

t
1.399
-.776
.033
-.390
.619
.259
.034
.183
.215
.680
-.591
-1.368
-.151
-.649
-.595
-.117
-.924
1.323
.892
.044
-.209
.369
-.516

Subtracts from intercept (2.502) a coefficient of 0.019 for every $1,000 earned.

Sig.
.204
.463
.974
.708
.556
.803
.974
.860
.836
.518
.573
.214
.884
.537
.571
.910
.386
.227
.402
.966
.840
.723
.621

The older the head of household is, the less likely you are to on family vacation
The person who scores his attitude of travel as "8" is actaully
less likely to go on a vacation than a person who scores it as
a "1". (adds a coefficient of 0.424 to the constant of 2.502.
NOTE: if the sum goes to 2, he will not go on vacation, so smaller
is 'better').
A person who rates the importance of travel as high, is more likely
to be to go on vacation (all coefficients are negative).

The larger the family size is, the more likely you are to go on a
family vacation (note: coefficient is sinking, as family size increases)

The more you spend the more likely you are to visit the resort. Note:
a "3" has a coefficient of -0.355 relative to one who scored it a "1".

a. Dependent Variable: Visits

Visits

Income

Household

Size-2

Size-3

Size-4

Size-5

Size-6

50.2

43

70.3

61

62.9

52

48.5

36

52.7

55

75.0

68

46.2

62

57.0

51

64.1

57

68.1

45

73.4

44

71.9

64

56.2

54

49.3

56

62.0

58

32.1

58

36.2

55

43.2

57

50.4

37

44.1

42

38.3

45

55.0

57

46.1

51

35.0

64

37.3

54

41.8

56

57.0

36

33.4

50

37.5

48

41.3

42

Travel-2 Travel-3 Travel-4 Travel-5 Travel-6 Travel-7 Travel-8 Import.-2 Import.-3 Import.-4 Import.-5 Import.-6 Import.-7 Import.-8

Spend-2 Spend-3

Resort

Annual

Visits

Income

1
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
2
St. dev.

50.8
63.6
54.0
45.0
68.0
62.1
35.0
49.6
39.4
37.0
54.5
38.2
11.1

Group
1
2

X1
60.52
41.91

dist. group
1 centroid

dist. group 2
centroid

Assignment
Seperation (t)

9.7
3.1
6.5
15.5
7.5
1.6
25.5
10.9
21.1
23.5
6.0
22.3

8.9
21.7
12.1
3.1
26.1
20.2
6.9
7.7
2.5
4.9
12.6
3.7
mean
p-val

0.07
1.67
0.50
1.12
1.67
1.67
1.67
0.29
1.67
1.67
0.59
1.67
1.19
26%

Attitude
toward
travel

dist.
group 1
centroid

4
7
6
5
6
5
4
5
6
2
7
2
1.7

1.4
1.6
0.6
0.4
0.6
0.4
1.4
0.4
0.6
3.4
1.6
3.4

dist. group
2 centroid

0.3
2.7
1.7
0.7
1.7
0.7
0.3
0.7
1.7
2.3
2.7
2.3
mean
p-val

dist.
dist.
Assignment Importance attached to
dist. group Assignment Househol
dist. group Assignment Age of Head of dist. group 1 dist. group
group 1
group 1
Seperation (t)
Family Vacation
2 centroid Seperation (t)
d size
2 centroid Seperation (t)
Household
centroid
2 centroid
centroid
centroid

0.64
0.64
0.64
0.16
0.64
0.16
0.64
0.16
0.64
0.64
0.64
0.64
0.52
61%

7
4
7
4
6
6
3
3
5
6
3
2
1.7

1.2
1.8
1.2
1.8
0.2
0.2
2.8
2.8
0.8
0.2
2.8
3.8

2.9
0.1
2.9
0.1
1.9
1.9
1.1
1.1
0.9
1.9
1.1
2.1
mean
p-val

1.01
1.01
1.01
1.01
1.01
1.01
1.01
1.01
0.08
1.01
1.01
1.01
0.93
37%

3
7
4
3
6
3
4
5
3
5
3
3
1.4

1.3
2.7
0.3
1.3
1.7
1.3
0.3
0.7
1.3
0.7
1.3
1.3

0.2
4.2
1.2
0.2
3.2
0.2
1.2
2.2
0.2
2.2
0.2
0.2
mean
p-val

0.82
1.11
0.63
0.82
1.11
0.82
0.63
1.11
0.82
1.11
0.82
0.82
0.89
39%

45
55
58
60
46
56
54
39
44
51
37
49
7.4

8.7
1.3
4.3
6.3
7.7
2.3
0.3
14.7
9.7
2.7
16.7
4.7

5.1
4.9
7.9
9.9
4.1
5.9
3.9
11.1
6.1
0.9
13.1
1.1
mean
p-val

Assignment
Seperation (t)

0.48
0.48
0.48
0.48
0.48
0.48
0.48
0.48
0.48
0.25
0.48
0.48
0.47
65%

Amount
Spent on
Vacation

2
3
2
2
3
3
1
1
3
1
2
1
0.9

Centroids
X2
5.40
4.33

ANSWER
Annual imcome
Household size
Importance attached to
Family Vacation
Age of Head of
Household
Attitude toward travel
Amount Spent on
Vacation

dist
1.2
0.9

p-val
26%
39%

0.9

37%

0.5

65%

0.5

61%

0.1

94%

Best differentiator

worst differentiator

X3
5.80
4.07

X4
4.33
2.80

X5
53.73
50.13

X6
2.60
1.40

dist. group 1 dist. group 2

centroid
centroid

0.6
0.4
0.6
0.6
0.4
0.4
1.6
1.6
0.4
1.6
0.6
1.6

0.6
1.6
0.6
0.6
1.6
1.6
0.4
0.4
1.6
0.4
0.6
0.4
mean
p-val

Assignment
Seperation (t)

0.00
0.11
0.00
0.00
0.11
0.11
0.11
0.11
0.11
0.11
0.00
0.11
0.07
94%

Explanation:
Traditional
The traditional way is to recode the variables in to 0-n (where the first value is =0).
This should the loading of each variable relative to the baseline (0)
The coefficients shows the loading of each variable relative to the (0) value
i.e. the value of 0.02 means that a family size of x is 0.02 more likely to go on a vacation
than a family size of 1.
Alternative way.
we can calculate the distance of each variable relative to the group centroids
then we can measure the separation of these distances as a t-value ((x-mean) / st. dev)
This measures the consistency of the assignments to each varaible's group centroid.
The higher p-value of the t-distribution, the more likely it is that the assignemnt is due to
randomness in the data set.
Based on this we find the best differentiators:
ANSWER
dist
p-val
Annual imcome
1.2
26%
Best differentiator
Household size
0.9
39%
Importance attached to Family
Vacation
Age of Head of Household
Attitude toward travel
Amount Spent on Vacation

0.9
0.5
0.5
0.1

37%
65%
61%
94%

worst differentiator

Aug 1996

Oct 1995

Mar 1996

Dec 1994

May 1995

Jul 1994

Feb 1994

Sep 1993

Apr 1993

Jun 1992

Nov 1992

Jan 1992

Aug 1991

Oct 1990

Mar 1991

Dec 1989

May 1990

Jul 1989

Feb 1989

Sep 1988

Apr 1988

Jun 1987

Nov 1987

Year Month Label

Actual
Box Office Receipt Index 1987-1996
1987 Jan Jan 1987
95
1987 Feb Feb 1987
94
1987 Mar Mar 1987
98
215
1987 Apr Apr 1987
96
1987 May May 1987
95
195
1987 Jun Jun 1987
115
1987 Jul Jul 1987
107
175
1987 Aug Aug 1987
104
1987 Sep Sep 1987
96
155
1987 Oct Oct 1987
112
1987 Nov Nov 1987
98
1987 Dec Dec 1987
102
135
1988 Jan Jan 1988
104
1988 Feb Feb 1988
100
115
1988 Mar Mar 1988
99
1988 Apr Apr 1988
88
95
1988 May May 1988
89
1988 Jun Jun 1988
108
75
1988 Jul Jul 1988
109
1988 Aug Aug 1988
101
1988 Sep Sep 1988
106
1988 Oct Oct 1988
102
1988 Nov Nov 1988
78
1988 Dec Dec 1988
111 In the First graph we see a trend of increased sales over time (annual), while in the 2nd graph we
1989 Jan Jan 1989
101
see a seasonality trend with increased box office sales in June/July as well as in December. But
1989 Feb Feb 1989
96
1989 Mar Mar 1989
82 January sales are traditionally low.
1989 Apr Apr 1989
84
Seasonal Box Office Receipt Index 1987-1996
1989 May May 1989
85
1989 Jun Jun 1989
124 215
1989 Jul Jul 1989
134
1989 Aug Aug 1989
109
1987
1989 Sep Sep 1989
121 195
1988
1989 Oct Oct 1989
111
1989 Nov Nov 1989
101
1989
1989 Dec Dec 1989
112
1990
175
1990 Jan Jan 1990
88
1990 Feb Feb 1990
110
1991
1990 Mar Mar 1990
129
1992
1990 Apr Apr 1990
113 155
1990 May May 1990
114
1993
1990 Jun Jun 1990
169
1994
1990 Jul Jul 1990
131
135
1990 Aug Aug 1990
139
1995
1990 Sep Sep 1990
120
1996
1990 Oct Oct 1990
115
1990 Nov Nov 1990
116 115
1990 Dec Dec 1990
128
1991 Jan Jan 1991
132
1991 Feb Feb 1991
109
95
1991 Mar Mar 1991
101
1991 Apr Apr 1991
111
1991 May May 1991
140
75
1991 Jun Jun 1991
179
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
1991 Jul Jul 1991
145
1991 Aug Aug 1991
140
1991 Sep Sep 1991
120
1991 Oct Oct 1991
129
1991 Nov Nov 1991
118
1991 Dec Dec 1991
139
1992 Jan Jan 1992
125
1992 Feb Feb 1992
118
1992 Mar Mar 1992
121
1992 Apr Apr 1992
140
1992 May May 1992
141
1992 Jun Jun 1992
201
Jan 1987

Obs
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66

1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996

Jan
95
104
101
88
132
125
111
127
119
147

Feb
94
100
96
110
109
118
123
129
147
146

Mar
98
99
82
129
101
121
121
132
164
133

Apr
96
88
84
113
111
140
139
108
135
148

May
95
89
85
114
140
141
119
115
124
141

Jun
115
108
124
169
179
201
156
149
168
191

Jul
107
109
134
131
145
152
154
155
159
178

Aug
104
101
109
139
140
138
136
129
137
156

Sep
96
106
121
120
120
137
105
117
149
119

Oct
112
102
111
115
129
138
132
166
159
138

Nov
98
78
101
116
118
144
123
152
175
175

Dec
102
111
112
128
139
148
164
173
195
188

67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
103
104
105
106
107
108
109
110
111
112
113
114
115
116
117
118
119
120

1992
1992
1992
1992
1992
1992
1993
1993
1993
1993
1993
1993
1993
1993
1993
1993
1993
1993
1994
1994
1994
1994
1994
1994
1994
1994
1994
1994
1994
1994
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1996
1996
1996
1996
1996
1996
1996
1996
1996
1996
1996
1996

Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec

Jul 1992
Aug 1992
Sep 1992
Oct 1992
Nov 1992
Dec 1992
Jan 1993
Feb 1993
Mar 1993
Apr 1993
May 1993
Jun 1993
Jul 1993
Aug 1993
Sep 1993
Oct 1993
Nov 1993
Dec 1993
Jan 1994
Feb 1994
Mar 1994
Apr 1994
May 1994
Jun 1994
Jul 1994
Aug 1994
Sep 1994
Oct 1994
Nov 1994
Dec 1994
Jan 1995
Feb 1995
Mar 1995
Apr 1995
May 1995
Jun 1995
Jul 1995
Aug 1995
Sep 1995
Oct 1995
Nov 1995
Dec 1995
Jan 1996
Feb 1996
Mar 1996
Apr 1996
May 1996
Jun 1996
Jul 1996
Aug 1996
Sep 1996
Oct 1996
Nov 1996
Dec 1996

152
138
137
138
144
148
111
123
121
139
119
156
154
136
105
132
123
164
127
129
132
108
115
149
155
129
117
166
152
173
119
147
164
135
124
168
159
137
149
159
175
195
147
146
133
148
141
191
178
156
119
138
175
188

Obs
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51

Year Month
Label
Actual
1987 Jan Jan 1987
95
1987 Feb Feb 1987
94
1987 Mar Mar 1987
98
1987 Apr Apr 1987
96
1987 May May 1987
95
1987 Jun Jun 1987
115
1987
Jul Jul 1987
107
1987 Aug Aug 1987
104
1987 Sep Sep 1987
96
1987 Oct Oct 1987
112
1987 Nov Nov 1987
98
1987 Dec Dec 1987
102
1988 Jan Jan 1988
104
1988 Feb Feb 1988
100
1988 Mar Mar 1988
99
1988 Apr Apr 1988
88
1988 May May 1988
89
1988 Jun Jun 1988
108
1988
Jul Jul 1988
109
1988 Aug Aug 1988
101
1988 Sep Sep 1988
106
1988 Oct Oct 1988
102
1988 Nov Nov 1988
78
1988 Dec Dec 1988
111
1989 Jan Jan 1989
101
1989 Feb Feb 1989
96
1989 Mar Mar 1989
82
1989 Apr Apr 1989
84
1989 May May 1989
85
1989 Jun Jun 1989
124
1989
Jul Jul 1989
134
1989 Aug Aug 1989
109
1989 Sep Sep 1989
121
1989 Oct Oct 1989
111
1989 Nov Nov 1989
101
1989 Dec Dec 1989
112
1990 Jan Jan 1990
88
1990 Feb Feb 1990
110
1990 Mar Mar 1990
129
1990 Apr Apr 1990
113
1990 May May 1990
114
1990 Jun Jun 1990
169
1990
Jul Jul 1990
131
1990 Aug Aug 1990
139
1990 Sep Sep 1990
120
1990 Oct Oct 1990
115
1990 Nov Nov 1990
116
1990 Dec Dec 1990
128
1991 Jan Jan 1991
132
1991 Feb Feb 1991
109
1991 Mar Mar 1991
101

Trend
95.07
95.62
96.16
96.71
97.26
97.81
98.36
98.91
99.46
100.01
100.56
101.11
101.66
102.21
102.76
103.31
103.86
104.41
104.96
105.51
106.05
106.60
107.15
107.70
108.25
108.80
109.35
109.90
110.45
111.00
111.55
112.10
112.65
113.20
113.75
114.30
114.85
115.40
115.94
116.49
117.04
117.59
118.14
118.69
119.24
119.79
120.34
120.89
121.44
121.99
122.54

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.723287 Very poor accuracy of the pred
R Square 0.523145
model, even though on averag
Adjusted R Square
0.519103
well
(F-stat is low and p-value
Standard Error
18.32493
very low)
Observations
120
ANOVA
df
SS
MS
Regression
1 43471.22 43471.22
Residual
118 39624.77 335.8032
Total
119 83095.99
Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat
Intercept
94.51611 3.36668 28.07398
Obs
0.549458 0.048292 11.37781
Observation
Predicted Actual
Residuals
1 95.06556 -0.06556
2 95.61502 -1.61502
3 96.16448 1.835519
4 96.71394 -0.71394
5 97.2634
-2.2634
6 97.81286 17.18714
7 98.36231 8.637685
8 98.91177 5.088227
9 99.46123 -3.46123
10 100.0107 11.98931
11 100.5601 -2.56015
12 101.1096 0.890394
13 101.6591 2.340936
14 102.2085 -2.20852
15 102.758 -3.75798
16 103.3074 -15.3074
17 103.8569 -14.8569
18 104.4064 3.593644
19 104.9558 4.044186
20 105.5053 -4.50527
21 106.0547 -0.05473
22 106.6042 -4.60419
23 107.1536 -29.1536
24 107.7031 3.296894
25 108.2526 -7.25256
26 108.802
-12.802
27 109.3515 -27.3515
28 109.9009 -25.9009
29 110.4504 -25.4504
30 110.9999 13.00014
31 111.5493 22.45069
32 112.0988 -3.09877
33 112.6482 8.35177
34 113.1977 -2.19769
35 113.7471 -12.7471
36 114.2966 -2.29661
37 114.8461 -26.8461

Obs Line Fit Plot

215
195
175

155

135
115
95
75

50

52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
103

1991
1991
1991
1991
1991
1991
1991
1991
1991
1992
1992
1992
1992
1992
1992
1992
1992
1992
1992
1992
1992
1993
1993
1993
1993
1993
1993
1993
1993
1993
1993
1993
1993
1994
1994
1994
1994
1994
1994
1994
1994
1994
1994
1994
1994
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995

Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul

Apr 1991
May 1991
Jun 1991
Jul 1991
Aug 1991
Sep 1991
Oct 1991
Nov 1991
Dec 1991
Jan 1992
Feb 1992
Mar 1992
Apr 1992
May 1992
Jun 1992
Jul 1992
Aug 1992
Sep 1992
Oct 1992
Nov 1992
Dec 1992
Jan 1993
Feb 1993
Mar 1993
Apr 1993
May 1993
Jun 1993
Jul 1993
Aug 1993
Sep 1993
Oct 1993
Nov 1993
Dec 1993
Jan 1994
Feb 1994
Mar 1994
Apr 1994
May 1994
Jun 1994
Jul 1994
Aug 1994
Sep 1994
Oct 1994
Nov 1994
Dec 1994
Jan 1995
Feb 1995
Mar 1995
Apr 1995
May 1995
Jun 1995
Jul 1995

111
140
179
145
140
120
129
118
139
125
118
121
140
141
201
152
138
137
138
144
148
111
123
121
139
119
156
154
136
105
132
123
164
127
129
132
108
115
149
155
129
117
166
152
173
119
147
164
135
124
168
159

123.09
123.64
124.19
124.74
125.29
125.84
126.38
126.93
127.48
128.03
128.58
129.13
129.68
130.23
130.78
131.33
131.88
132.43
132.98
133.53
134.08
134.63
135.18
135.73
136.27
136.82
137.37
137.92
138.47
139.02
139.57
140.12
140.67
141.22
141.77
142.32
142.87
143.42
143.97
144.52
145.07
145.62
146.17
146.71
147.26
147.81
148.36
148.91
149.46
150.01
150.56
151.11

38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89

115.3955
115.945
116.4944
117.0439
117.5934
118.1428
118.6923
119.2417
119.7912
120.3406
120.8901
121.4396
121.989
122.5385
123.0879
123.6374
124.1869
124.7363
125.2858
125.8352
126.3847
126.9341
127.4836
128.0331
128.5825
129.132
129.6814
130.2309
130.7804
131.3298
131.8793
132.4287
132.9782
133.5276
134.0771
134.6266
135.176
135.7255
136.2749
136.8244
137.3739
137.9233
138.4728
139.0222
139.5717
140.1211
140.6706
141.2201
141.7695
142.319
142.8684
143.4179

-5.39552
13.05502
-3.49444
-3.0439
51.40665
12.85719
20.30773
0.75827
-4.79119
-4.34065
7.109895
10.56044
-12.989
-21.5385
-12.0879
16.3626
54.81315
20.26369
14.71423
-5.83523
2.615312
-8.93415
11.5164
-3.03306
-10.5825
-8.13198
10.31856
10.7691
70.21965
20.67019
6.120729
4.571271
5.021813
10.47235
13.9229
-23.6266
-12.176
-14.7255
2.725063
-17.8244
18.62615
16.07669
-2.47277
-34.0222
-7.57169
-17.1211
23.3294
-14.2201
-12.7695
-10.319
-34.8684
-28.4179

104
105
106
107
108
109
110
111
112
113
114
115
116
117
118
119
120

1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1996
1996
1996
1996
1996
1996
1996
1996
1996
1996
1996
1996

Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec

Aug 1995
Sep 1995
Oct 1995
Nov 1995
Dec 1995
Jan 1996
Feb 1996
Mar 1996
Apr 1996
May 1996
Jun 1996
Jul 1996
Aug 1996
Sep 1996
Oct 1996
Nov 1996
Dec 1996

137
149
159
175
195
147
146
133
148
141
191
178
156
119
138
175
188

151.66
152.21
152.76
153.31
153.86
154.41
154.96
155.51
156.06
156.60
157.15
157.70
158.25
158.80
159.35
159.90
160.45

90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
103
104
105
106
107
108
109
110
111
112
113
114
115
116
117
118
119
120

143.9674
144.5168
145.0663
145.6157
146.1652
146.7146
147.2641
147.8136
148.363
148.9125
149.4619
150.0114
150.5609
151.1103
151.6598
152.2092
152.7587
153.3081
153.8576
154.4071
154.9565
155.506
156.0554
156.6049
157.1544
157.7038
158.2533
158.8027
159.3522
159.9016
160.4511

5.032647
10.48319
-16.0663
-28.6157
19.83481
5.285355
25.7359
-28.8136
-1.36302
15.08752
-14.4619
-26.0114
17.43915
7.889689
-14.6598
-3.20923
6.241314
21.69186
41.1424
-7.40706
-8.95652
-22.506
-8.05544
-15.6049
33.84565
20.29619
-2.25327
-39.8027
-21.3522
15.09836
27.5489

oor accuracy of the prediction of the

, even though on average it is doing
-stat is low and p-value of variable is
very low)
F
Significance F
129.454457 1.06E-20

P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%

Upper 95.0%
4.5826E-54 87.84917 101.183 87.84917 101.183
1.1E-20 0.453827 0.64509 0.453827 0.64509

s Line Fit Plot

Actual

100

Predicted Actual

150

Obs
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51

Year Month Actual Base level

1987 Jan
95
Feb
94
Mar
98
Apr
96
May
95
Jun
115
Jul
107
Aug
104
Sep
96
Oct
112
Nov
98
Dec
102
101.0
1988 Jan
104
102.4
Feb
100
103.4
Mar
99
103.8
Apr
88
102.7
May
89
101.5
Jun
108
100.0
Jul
109
99.8
Aug
101
99.0
Sep
106
100.3
Oct
102
98.9
Nov
78
95.8
Dec
111
96.7
1989 Jan
101
97.3
Feb
96
97.7
Mar
82
96.0
Apr
84
95.1
May
85
94.3
Jun
124
96.5
Jul
134
101.2
Aug
109
103.6
Sep
121
107.9
Oct
111
109.7
Nov
101
111.9
Dec
112
112.9
1990 Jan
88
110.8
Feb
110
111.6
Mar
129
116.0
Apr
113
118.7
May
114
121.2
Jun
169
127.6
Jul
131
128.4
Aug
139
131.8
Sep
120
131.6
Oct
115
130.0
Nov
116
130.0
Dec
128
129.5
1991 Jan
132
131.5
Feb
109
129.2
Mar
101
124.5

Trend

0.0
0.5
0.7
0.6
0.0
-0.4
-0.8
-0.6
-0.7
0.0
-0.5
-1.4
-0.6
-0.2
0.0
-0.6
-0.7
-0.7
0.3
1.9
2.0
2.8
2.5
2.4
1.9
0.5
0.6
1.9
2.2
2.3
3.7
2.7
2.9
1.9
0.6
0.4
0.1
0.8
-0.3
-1.8

Seasonal factor
-6.0
-7.0
-3.0
-5.0
-6.0
14.0
6.0
3.0
-5.0
11.0
-3.0
1.0
-2.6
-5.4
-3.8
-9.4
-8.9
11.3
7.4
2.5
-0.2
7.5
-9.7
7.0
0.3
-3.7
-8.4
-10.1
-9.1
18.6
18.8
3.8
5.8
4.7
-10.2
3.4
-10.1
-2.8
1.2
-8.1
-8.3
28.9
11.5
5.4
-2.0
-4.2
-11.9
1.2
-5.3
-10.6
-9.9

Forecast

MAPE
alpha
beta
gamma

250

200
96.8
97.1
101.4
97.7
95.1
113.2
105.2
101.4
95.3
109.4
91.4
97.2
94.5
92.4
91.6
85.0
84.7
108.0
110.5
108.2
110.6
119.6
104.7
121.8
111.5
108.5
109.5
110.8
114.4
149.9
150.0
138.5
139.3
135.3
120.2
133.0
122.2
126.1
123.9

0.0639
0.0265
0.0224
0.1017
0.0634
0.0449
0.0322
0.0033
0.0938
0.0671
0.1589
0.1155
0.0594
0.0351
0.1080
0.0113
0.0036
0.1192
0.1623
0.0072
0.0794
0.0719
0.0337
0.0810
0.2474
0.0129
0.1397
0.0183
0.0036
0.1046
0.1343
0.0032
0.1486
0.1637
0.0332
0.0365
0.0690
0.1451
0.2099

150

100

50

52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
103

1992

1993

1994

1995

Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul

111
140
179
145
140
120
129
118
139
125
118
121
140
141
201
152
138
137
138
144
148
111
123
121
139
119
156
154
136
105
132
123
164
127
129
132
108
115
149
155
129
117
166
152
173
119
147
164
135
124
168
159

122.1
124.3
127.7
129.3
131.0
130.8
131.8
132.3
133.7
134.0
133.8
133.7
136.3
137.5
142.2
143.6
143.5
144.5
145.0
147.6
148.5
145.1
143.4
141.0
140.1
135.5
129.3
128.2
126.8
122.5
122.2
121.8
126.7
130.3
134.0
138.0
136.5
135.3
132.0
132.1
130.5
129.4
133.9
138.0
142.4
143.1
147.2
153.7
156.6
156.6
156.1
154.7

-2.0
-0.5
0.8
1.1
1.3
0.8
0.9
0.7
1.0
0.7
0.4
0.2
1.1
1.1
2.3
2.0
1.3
1.2
1.0
1.5
1.3
-0.4
-0.8
-1.4
-1.2
-2.4
-3.7
-2.8
-2.3
-3.0
-2.1
-1.5
0.8
1.7
2.4
3.0
1.4
0.5
-0.8
-0.5
-0.9
-1.0
0.9
2.1
2.9
2.1
2.8
4.1
3.7
2.4
1.4
0.4

-9.5
2.5
38.9
13.4
7.0
-6.0
-3.6
-13.0
3.0
-7.0
-13.0
-11.2
-3.6
2.9
47.9
11.1
1.4
-6.6
-5.1
-8.8
1.4
-19.2
-16.3
-15.2
-2.4
-5.8
38.4
17.7
4.9
-11.5
1.6
-4.3
17.6
-12.0
-11.2
-11.1
-14.2
-12.3
28.7
20.1
2.0
-11.9
15.4
3.9
23.4
-17.5
-6.3
-1.5
-17.5
-21.5
21.2
13.0

112.0
115.5
157.4
141.9
137.7
129.5
128.5
121.1
135.9
129.4
123.6
124.1
127.9
141.2
183.4
159.0
151.7
139.6
142.4
136.2
152.9
137.7
129.6
128.5
135.3
136.0
173.5
136.5
125.8
112.9
115.0
111.6
128.9
112.8
120.1
125.9
135.4
130.0
169.5
149.3
134.5
116.9
136.4
135.8
162.8
133.2
138.8
146.8
146.1
146.7
186.2
175.1

0.0080
0.1619
0.1116
0.0197
0.0151
0.0735
0.0036
0.0240
0.0209
0.0328
0.0442
0.0237
0.0802
0.0010
0.0808
0.0429
0.0920
0.0179
0.0296
0.0502
0.0306
0.2230
0.0498
0.0573
0.0245
0.1322
0.1038
0.1052
0.0693
0.0693
0.1195
0.0858
0.1982
0.1033
0.0637
0.0429
0.2349
0.1207
0.1277
0.0338
0.0394
0.0006
0.1651
0.0988
0.0545
0.1106
0.0519
0.0971
0.0759
0.1697
0.1002
0.0939

104
105
106
107
108
109 1996
110
111
112
113
114
115
116
117
118
119
120
120 1997
121
122
123
124
125
126
127
128
129
130
131

Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

137
149
159
175
195
147
146
133
148
141
191
178
156
119
138
175
188

152.0
152.8
151.3
153.7
156.8
159.1
159.5
156.8
158.0
158.9
161.0
162.5
163.5
159.0
153.3
152.7
151.9

-0.7
-0.2
-0.6
0.4
1.4
1.7
1.2
-0.1
0.3
0.5
1.1
1.2
1.1
-0.8
-2.5
-1.9
-1.5

-5.6
-8.3
11.9
11.7
30.1
-15.0
-9.5
-11.5
-14.1
-19.9
25.1
14.1
-6.5
-22.5
-0.4
16.5
32.8

153.4
140.7
166.0
158.1
181.6
143.3
154.5
155.2
140.8
138.0
183.3
176.8
158.9
149.9
162.7
162.6
180.5
135.4
139.4
135.9
131.8
124.6
168.1
155.6
133.5
115.9
136.6
152.0
166.8

0.1111
0.0514
0.0410
0.0894
0.0637
0.0232
0.0537
0.1544
0.0450
0.0197
0.0375
0.0065
0.0174
0.2402
0.1660
0.0658
0.0370

Triple checked, but can not get 252 on MSE

0.150
0.350
MSE
177.6
0.450
MAPE
8.25%

250

200

150

100

50

0
1

11

16

21

26

31

36

41

46

51

56

61

66

71

76

81

86

91

96 101 106

106

Obs Year Month Actual Base level

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb

95
94
98
96
95
115
107
104
96
112
98
102
104
100
99
88
89
108
109
101
106
102
78
111
101
96
82
84
85
124
134
109
121
111
101
112
88
110
129
113
114
169
131
139
120
115
116
128
132
109

101.0
110.0
107.0
102.0
93.0
95.0
94.0
103.0
98.0
111.0
91.0
81.0
110.0
107.0
103.0
85.0
89.0
91.0
110.0
128.0
106.0
126.0
100.0
104.0
111.0
94.0
117.0
132.0
118.0
120.0
155.0
125.0
136.0
125.0
104.0
119.0
127.0
138.0
116.0

Trend

Seasonal factor

0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0

-6.0
-7.0
-3.0
-5.0
-6.0
14.0
6.0
3.0
-5.0
11.0
-3.0
1.0
-6.0
-7.0
-3.0
-5.0
-6.0
14.0
6.0
3.0
-5.0
11.0
-3.0
1.0
-6.0
-7.0
-3.0
-5.0
-6.0
14.0
6.0
3.0
-5.0
11.0
-3.0
1.0
-6.0
-7.0
-3.0
-5.0
-6.0
14.0
6.0
3.0
-5.0
11.0
-3.0
1.0
-6.0
-7.0

Forecast

MAPE
alpha
beta
gamma

250

200
104.0
100.0
99.0
88.0
89.0
108.0
109.0
101.0
106.0
102.0
78.0
111.0
101.0
96.0
82.0
84.0
85.0
124.0
134.0
109.0
121.0
111.0
101.0
112.0
88.0
110.0
129.0
113.0
114.0
169.0
131.0
139.0
120.0
115.0
116.0
128.0
132.0
109.0

0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000

150

100

50

0
1

51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
101
102

1992

1993

1994

1995

Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun

101
111
140
179
145
140
120
129
118
139
125
118
121
140
141
201
152
138
137
138
144
148
111
123
121
139
119
156
154
136
105
132
123
164
127
129
132
108
115
149
155
129
117
166
152
173
119
147
164
135
124
168

104.0
116.0
146.0
165.0
139.0
137.0
125.0
118.0
121.0
138.0
131.0
125.0
124.0
145.0
147.0
187.0
146.0
135.0
142.0
127.0
147.0
147.0
117.0
130.0
124.0
144.0
125.0
142.0
148.0
133.0
110.0
121.0
126.0
163.0
133.0
136.0
135.0
113.0
121.0
135.0
149.0
126.0
122.0
155.0
155.0
172.0
125.0
154.0
167.0
140.0
130.0
154.0

0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0

-3.0
-5.0
-6.0
14.0
6.0
3.0
-5.0
11.0
-3.0
1.0
-6.0
-7.0
-3.0
-5.0
-6.0
14.0
6.0
3.0
-5.0
11.0
-3.0
1.0
-6.0
-7.0
-3.0
-5.0
-6.0
14.0
6.0
3.0
-5.0
11.0
-3.0
1.0
-6.0
-7.0
-3.0
-5.0
-6.0
14.0
6.0
3.0
-5.0
11.0
-3.0
1.0
-6.0
-7.0
-3.0
-5.0
-6.0
14.0

101.0
111.0
140.0
179.0
145.0
140.0
120.0
129.0
118.0
139.0
125.0
118.0
121.0
140.0
141.0
201.0
152.0
138.0
137.0
138.0
144.0
148.0
111.0
123.0
121.0
139.0
119.0
156.0
154.0
136.0
105.0
132.0
123.0
164.0
127.0
129.0
132.0
108.0
115.0
149.0
155.0
129.0
117.0
166.0
152.0
173.0
119.0
147.0
164.0
135.0
124.0
168.0

0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000

103
104
105
106
107
108
109 1996
110
111
112
113
114
115
116
117
118
119
120
120 1997
121
122
123
124
125
126
127
128
129
130
131

Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

159
137
149
159
175
195
147
146
133
148
141
191
178
156
119
138
175
188

153.0
134.0
154.0
148.0
178.0
194.0
153.0
153.0
136.0
153.0
147.0
177.0
172.0
153.0
124.0
127.0
178.0
187.0

0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0

6.0
3.0
-5.0
11.0
-3.0
1.0
-6.0
-7.0
-3.0
-5.0
-6.0
14.0
6.0
3.0
-5.0
11.0
-3.0
1.0

159.0
137.0
149.0
159.0
175.0
195.0
147.0
146.0
133.0
148.0
141.0
191.0
178.0
156.0
119.0
138.0
175.0
188.0
181.0
180.0
184.0
182.0
181.0
201.0
193.0
190.0
182.0
198.0
184.0
188.0

0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000

100% perfect fit!!!!!

1.000
0.000
0.572

MSE
MAPE

0.0
0.00%

Series1
Series2

11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 56 61 66 71 76 81 86 91 96 101 106

COUNTY
Alachua
Baker
Bay
Bradford
Brevard
Broward
Calhoun
Charlotte
Citrus
Clay
Collier
Columbia
Dade
De Soto
Dixie
Duval
Escambia
Flagler
Franklin
Gadsden
Gilchrist
Glades
Gulf
Hamilton
Hardee
Hendry
Hernando
Highlands
Hillsborough
Holmes
Indian River
Jackson
Jefferson
Lafayette
Lake
Lee
Leon
Levy
Liberty
Madison
Manatee
Marion

Gore

Votes for:
Bush Buchanan

47300
2392

34062
5610

262
73

18850
3072
97318

38637
5413
115185

248
65
570

386518
2155
29641
25501
14630
29905
7047
328702
3322
1826
107680
40958
13891
2046
9565
1910
1441
2389
1722
2341
3239
32644
14167
169529
2154
19768
6868
3041
788
36555
73560
61425
5403
1011
3011
49169
44665

177279
2873
35419
29744
41745
60426
10964
289456
4256
2697
152082
73029
12608
2454
4750
3300
1840
3546
2146
3764
4743
30646
20206
180713
4985
28635
9138
2478
1669
49963
106141
39053
6860
1316
3038
57948
55141

789
90
182
270
186
122
89
561
36
29
650
504
83
33
39
29
9
71
23
30
22
242
127
845
76
105
102
29
10
289
305
282
67
39
29
272
563

Margin of 'victory'
1725 votes
0.030% percent

Martin
Monroe
Nassau
Okaloosa
Okeechobee
Orange
Osceola
Pasco
Pinellas
Polk
Putnam
Santa Rosa
Sarasota
Seminole
St. Johns
St. Lucie
Sumtter
Suwannee
Taylor
Union
Volusia
Wakulla
Walton
Washington
Palm Beach
TOTAL

26619
16483
6952
16924
4588
140115
28181
69564
200212
74977
12091
12795
72854
58888
19482
41559
9634
4084
2647
1407
97063
3835
5637
2796

33864
16059
16404
52043
5058
134476
26212
68582
184884
90101
13439
36248
83100
75293
39497
34705
12126
8014
4051
2332
82214
4511
12176
4983

108
47
90
267
43
446
145
570
1010
538
147
311
305
194
229
124
114
108
27
29
396
46
120
88

268945 152846
2907451 2909176

3407
17356

1725
0.030%

Gore
Alachua
Baker
Bay
Bradford
Brevard
Broward
Calhoun
Charlotte
Citrus
Clay
Collier
Columbia
Dade
De Soto
Dixie
Duval
Escambia
Flagler
Franklin
Gadsden
Gilchrist
Glades
Gulf
Hamilton
Hardee
Hendry
Hernando
Highlands
Hillsborough
Holmes
Indian River
Jackson
Jefferson
Lafayette
Lake
Lee
Leon
Levy
Liberty
Madison
Manatee
Marion
Martin

47300
2392
18850
3072
97318
386518
2155
29641
25501
14630
29905
7047
328702
3322
1826
107680
40958
13891
2046
9565
1910
1441
2389
1722
2341
3239
32644
14167
169529
2154
19768
6868
3041
788
36555
73560
61425
5403
1011
3011
49169
44665
26619

Buchanan
262
73
248
65
570
789
90
182
270
186
122
89
561
36
29
650
504
83
33
39
29
9
71
23
30
22
242
127
845
76
105
102
29
10
289
305
282
67
39
29
272
563
108

Bush
34062
5610
38637
5413
115185
177279
2873
35419
29744
41745
60426
10964
289456
4256
2697
152082
73029
12608
2454
4750
3300
1840
3546
2146
3764
4743
30646
20206
180713
4985
28635
9138
2478
1669
49963
106141
39053
6860
1316
3038
57948
55141
33864

4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
0

50000

100000

Monroe
Nassau
Okaloosa
Okeechobee
Orange
Osceola
Pasco
Pinellas
Polk
Putnam
Santa Rosa
Sarasota
Seminole
St. Johns
St. Lucie
Sumtter
Suwannee
Taylor
Union
Volusia
Wakulla
Walton
Washington
Palm Beach
TOTAL

16483
6952
16924
4588
140115
28181
69564
200212
74977
12091
12795
72854
58888
19482
41559
9634
4084
2647
1407
97063
3835
5637
2796

268945
2907451

47
90
267
43
446
145
570
1010
538
147
311
305
194
229
124
114
108
27
29
396
46
120
88

16059
16404
52043
5058
134476
26212
68582
184884
90101
13439
36248
83100
75293
39497
34705
12126
8014
4051
2332
82214
4511
12176
4983

3407 152846
17356 2909176
1725
0.059%

Votes Buchanan Vs. Gore

Palm Beach

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

400000

450000

Gore
Alachua
Baker
Bay
Bradford
Brevard
Broward
Calhoun
Charlotte
Citrus
Clay
Collier
Columbia
Dade
De Soto
Dixie
Duval
Escambia
Flagler
Franklin
Gadsden
Gilchrist
Glades
Gulf
Hamilton
Hardee
Hendry
Hernando
Highlands
Hillsborough
Holmes
Indian River
Jackson
Jefferson
Lafayette
Lake
Lee
Leon
Levy
Liberty
Madison
Manatee
Marion

Buchanan

Predicted Buc. Votes

SUMMARY OUTPUT

47300

262

230

2392
18850
3072
97318
386518
2155

73
248
65
570
789
90

116
158
118
357
1092
115

Regression Statistics
Multiple R
0.793991526
R Square
0.630422544
Adjusted R Square
0.624647896
Standard Error
137.3242494
Observations
66

29641
25501

182
270

185
175

ANOVA

14630
29905
7047
328702

186
122
89
561

147
186
128
945

3322

36

118

1826
107680
40958

29
650
504

114
383
214

13891

83

145

2046

33

115

9565

39

134

1910
1441

29
9

115
113

2389

71

116

1722
2341
3239
32644
14167
169529
2154

23
30
22
242
127
845
76

114
116
118
193
146
541
115

19768
6868
3041
788
36555
73560
61425
5403
1011
3011
49169
44665

105
102
29
10
289
305
282
67
39
29
272
563

160
127
117
112
203
297
266
123
112
117
235
223

df
Regression
Residual
Total

1
64
65
Coefficients
109.7673118
0.002540967

Intercept
Gore
3)

Buchanan votes = 109.767 + 0.00

4) 63.04% of the variance in the vote

explained by the variance in

5) 99% = Z score of 2.575

St. error = 137.32
Prediction = 793 votes for Buchan
Lower limit (alpha=0.01)
Highest limit (alpha=0.01)
Actual votes recorded

Martin
Monroe
Nassau
Okaloosa
Okeechobee
Orange
Osceola
Pasco
Pinellas
Polk
Putnam
Santa Rosa
Sarasota
Seminole
St. Johns
St. Lucie
Sumtter
Suwannee
Taylor
Union
Volusia
Wakulla
Walton
Washington
Palm Beach

26619
16483
6952
16924
4588
140115
28181
69564
200212
74977
12091
12795
72854
58888
19482
41559
9634
4084
2647
1407
97063
3835
5637
2796

108
47
90
267
43
446
145
570
1010
538
147
311
305
194
229
124
114
108
27
29
396
46
120
88

177
152
127
153
121
466
181
287
618
300
140
142
295
259
159
215
134
120
116
113
356
120
124
117

268945

3407

793

SS
MS
2058736.219 2058736.219
1206908.766 18857.94947
3265644.985
Standard Error
t Stat
19.49989089 5.629124412
0.00024319 10.44848007

F
Significance F
109.1707358
1.82027E-15

P-value
4.31691E-07
1.82027E-15

Buchanan votes = 109.767 + 0.0025409* votes for Gore

63.04% of the variance in the votes of Buchanan can be

explained by the variance in the votes for Gore

9% = Z score of 2.575
t. error = 137.32
rediction = 793 votes for Buchanan in Palm Beach
ower limit (alpha=0.01)
439
ighest limit (alpha=0.01)
1147

ctual votes recorded

3407

Lower 95%
Upper 95% Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%
70.81183673 148.7227869 70.81183673 148.7227869
0.00205514 0.003026795 0.00205514 0.003026795

COUNTY
Alachua
Baker
Bay
Bradford
Brevard
Broward
Calhoun
Charlotte
Citrus
Clay
Collier
Columbia
Dade
De Soto
Dixie
Duval
Escambia
Flagler
Franklin
Gadsden
Gilchrist
Glades
Gulf
Hamilton
Hardee
Hendry
Hernando
Highlands
Hillsborough
Holmes
Indian River
Jackson
Jefferson
Lafayette
Lake
Lee
Leon
Levy
Liberty
Madison
Manatee
Marion

Bush
34062
5610
38637
5413
115185
177279
2873
35419
29744
41745
60426
10964
289456
4256
2697
152082
73029
12608
2454
4750
3300
1840
3546
2146
3764
4743
30646
20206
180713
4985
28635
9138
2478
1669
49963
106141
39053
6860
1316
3038
57948
55141

Buchanan
262
73
248
65
570
789
90
182
270
186
122
89
561
36
29
650
504
83
33
39
29
9
71
23
30
22
242
127
845
76
105
102
29
10
289
305
282
67
39
29
272
563

Buchanan Vs. George Bush votes

4000
Palm Beach

3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
0

50000

100000

150000

Martin
Monroe
Nassau
Okaloosa
Okeechobee
Orange
Osceola
Pasco
Pinellas
Polk
Putnam
Santa Rosa
Sarasota
Seminole
St. Johns
St. Lucie
Sumtter
Suwannee
Taylor
Union
Volusia
Wakulla
Walton
Washington
Palm Beach
TOTAL

33864
16059
16404
52043
5058
134476
26212
68582
184884
90101
13439
36248
83100
75293
39497
34705
12126
8014
4051
2332
82214
4511
12176
4983

108
47
90
267
43
446
145
570
1010
538
147
311
305
194
229
124
114
108
27
29
396
46
120
88

152846
2909176

3407
17356

#REF!
#REF!

George Bush votes

Palm Beach

200000

250000

300000

COUNTY
Alachua
Baker
Bay
Bradford
Brevard
Broward
Calhoun
Charlotte
Citrus
Clay
Collier
Columbia
Dade
De Soto
Dixie
Duval
Escambia
Flagler
Franklin
Gadsden
Gilchrist
Glades
Gulf
Hamilton
Hardee
Hendry
Hernando
Highlands
Hillsborough
Holmes
Indian River
Jackson
Jefferson
Lafayette
Lake
Lee
Leon
Levy
Liberty
Madison
Manatee
Marion

Bush

Buchanan

Regression Statistics

34062
5610
38637
5413
115185

262
73
248
65
570

177279

789 ANOVA

2873
35419
29744
41745
60426
10964
289456

Multiple R
R Square
Adjusted R Square
Standard Error
Observations

90
182 Regression
270 Residual
186 Total

df
1
64
65

122
89 Intercept
561 Bush

4256

36

2697

29

152082

650

73029
12608

504
83

2454

33

4750
3300
1840
3546
2146
3764
4743

39
29
9
71
23
30
22

30646
20206
180713

242
127
845

4985
28635
9138
2478
1669
49963
106141
39053

76
105
102
29
10
289
305
282

6860
1316
3038
57948
55141

67
39
29
272
563

0.867968547
0.753369399
0.749515796
112.1806567
66
SS
MS
2460237.001 2460237.001
805407.9838 12584.49975
3265644.985

Coefficients Standard Error

t Stat
66.0948416
17.27995971 3.824941882
0.003478082
0.000248754 13.98203854
7)

Buchanan votes = 66.0948 + 0.003478 * votes for Bush

8)

75.33 of the variance in the votes for Buchanan can be

explained by the variance in the votes for Bush.

9) 99% = Z score of 2.575

St. error = 112.18
Prediction = 598 votes for Buchanan in Palm Beach
Lower limit (alpha=0.01)
309
Highest limit (alpha=0.01)
887
Actual votes recorded

3407

Note: Y^ +/- Z(alpha) * Se

10) It shows that it may be unreasonable to see a vote number o

Buchanan's favor based on the results from the other count

However, the assumption is that the other counties are repr

the county of Palm Beach (I own a summer home in Palm B
and it is representative).

A case could be made that Buchanan campaigned only in th

true), or that a large number of his family members lived the

Martin
Monroe
Nassau
Okaloosa
Okeechobee
Orange
Osceola
Pasco
Pinellas
Polk
Putnam
Santa Rosa
Sarasota
Seminole
St. Johns
St. Lucie
Sumtter
Suwannee
Taylor
Union
Volusia
Wakulla
Walton
Washington
Palm Beach

33864
16059
16404
52043
5058
134476
26212
68582
184884
90101
13439
36248
83100
75293
39497
34705
12126
8014
4051
2332
82214
4511
12176
4983

108
47
90
267
43
446
145
570
1010
538
147
311
305
194
229
124
114
108
27
29
396
46
120
88

152846

3407

597.6932

F
Significance F
195.4974016
3.99966E-21

P-value
0.000299251
3.99966E-21

Lower 95%
Upper 95% Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%
31.57418485 100.6154983 31.57418485 100.6154983
0.00298114 0.003975023 0.00298114 0.003975023

.003478 * votes for Bush

tes for Buchanan can be

n the votes for Bush.

anan in Palm Beach

nable to see a vote number of 3,407 in

results from the other counties.

t the other counties are representative for

n a summer home in Palm Bay- next door

hanan campaigned only in that county (if

his family members lived there :-)