Quantitative Method

Project Correlation
Analysis: Corners
won and goals scored
Submitted By:
Nikhil Sasi
: PGP/16/095
Rejin Johny
: PGP/16/103
Saprem Dalal : PGP/16/106
Vishwas Anand : PGP/16/118
Sruthy S
: PGP/16/113
Arjun Menon : PGP/16/072
Nishant S
: PGP/16/096
Arnab Kumar Saha : PGP/16/073

Contents
Purpose and reason for choosing the project: ............................................................................................. 2
SCOPE OF WORK ........................................................................................................................................... 3
Analysis and Observation:............................................................................................................................. 4
Correlation: ............................................................................................................................................... 4
Test for significance of correlation: .............................................................................................................. 5
A: Premier League 2011-12....................................................................................................................... 5
Correlation for the goal difference and corner difference ................................................................... 5
Correlation for the Home goals and Home corners.............................................................................. 6
Correlation for the Away goals and Away corners ............................................................................... 7
B: La Liga 2011-12 ..................................................................................................................................... 8
Correlation for the goal difference and corner difference ................................................................... 8
Correlation for the Home goals and Home corners.............................................................................. 9
Correlation for the Away goals and Away corners ............................................................................. 10
Chi Square Test: .......................................................................................................................................... 11
A. Premier League: .................................................................................................................................. 11
Hypothesis: ......................................................................................................................................... 12
Decision: .............................................................................................................................................. 12
B. Spanish League: .................................................................................................................................. 12
Hypothesis: ......................................................................................................................................... 13
Decision: .............................................................................................................................................. 13
Conclusions: ................................................................................................................................................ 14
Bibliography ................................................................................................................................................ 15

Purpose and reason for choosing the project:

We had decided to do a project related to Sports statistics. Football is a sport that is very much
dependent on statistics and statistical analysis. Top football teams around the globe rely on
rigorous statistical analysis to give themselves a competitive edge over their rivals. Keeping that
in mind, we decided to do our quantitative management project for the first term in the field of
football statistics.

SCOPE OF WORK
One of the constant features of all football match statistic is the Corner Kicks count, the
number of corner kicks that has been awarded to each of the teams. A team is awarded a
corner kick when the ball goes over the goal line outside of the goal and it is last played by the
defense. The corners (for and against) statistic finds its way to most football match reports on
the widespread belief that a greater number of corners statistic is a measure of greater
attacking intent of the team and therefore the team that has a higher corner count has a better
chance of winning the match and a higher chance of scoring goals .
We chose to explore the relevance of this assumption based on the evidence from the last
season in the English (Premier league) and Spanish league (La Liga). A total of 20 teams
compete against each other twice over the course of each season giving us a sample of 380
matches each to draw our conclusion. We have chosen the English and the Spanish leagues
because of the distinctive style of the game in the mentioned league. We wanted to further
explore if the statistics would be dependent on the style of play as well.

Analysis and Observation:

For all the matches played we took a sample of both the corners won and the goals scored for
both the home as well as the away teams.
First we tried to find the percentage of matches where teams that had greater number of
corners have gone on to win the match. Based on evidence of season 2011-12, we got the
following results for both the leagues for the team that won the maximum number of corners.
Number of matches won: 274
Total number of matches: 380
Percentage of matches won: 72.11

Correlation:
Next, we tried to find if any correlation exists between the following,
1. No of goals scored and number of corners won by the home team
2. No of goals scored and number of corners won by the away team
3. The goal difference and the corner difference
And the below are the results for the correlation coefficients that we observed.
English League 2011-2012:
Data
Away Goals and Away Corners
Home Goals and Home Corners
Goal Difference and Corner Difference

Correlation
0.03475
0.08298
0.13818

Spanish League 2011-2012:

Data
Away Goals and Away Corners
Home Goals and Home Corners
Goal Difference and Corner Difference

Correlation
0.04321
0.03547
0.11229

Test for significance of correlation:

A: Premier League 2011-12
Correlation for the goal difference and corner difference

The value of correlation coefficient = 0.13818

Number of samples, n = 380
Degree of freedom, n-2 = 378
Step 1:
Parameter of interest is , the population correlation coefficient
Step 2:
H0 : =0
Step 3:
H1: !=0
Step 4:
= 0.05, degree of freedom = 378
Step5:
Test Statistic t = r (n-2/1-r2)0.5
Where r = correlation coefficient
Step 6:
Reject H0 if t > 1.960 or t<-1.960
Step 7:
Obtained t0 = 2.7126
Step 8:
Since is t0 > 1.960, we reject the null hypothesis H0 : =0 and conclude that there exist a
correlation between the sample and the original population .

Correlation for the Home goals and Home corners

The value of correlation coefficient = 0.08289

Number of samples, n = 380
Degree of freedom, n-2 = 378
Step 1:
Parameter of interest is , the population correlation coefficient
Step 2:
H0 : =0
Step 3:
H1 : !=0
Step 4:
= 0.05, degree of freedom = 378
Step5:
Test Statistic t = r (n-2/1-r2)0.5
Where r = correlation coefficient
Step 6:
Reject H0 if t > 1.960 or t<-1.960
Step 7:
Obtained t0 = 1.6171
Step 8:
Since is t0 < 1.960, we fail to reject the null hypothesis H0 : =0 and fail to conclude that there
exist a correlation between the sample and the original population .

Correlation for the Away goals and Away corners

The value of correlation coefficient = 0.03475

Number of samples, n = 380
Degree of freedom, n-2 = 378
Step 1:
Parameter of interest is , the population correlation coefficient
Step 2:
H0 : =0
Step 3:
H1 : !=0
Step 4:
= 0.05, dof = 378
Step5:
Test Statistic t = r (n-2/1-r2)0.5
Where r = correlation coefficient
Step 6:
Reject H0 if t > 1.960 or t<-1.960
Step 7:
Obtained t0 = 0.67605
Step 8:
Since is t0 < 1.960, we fail to reject the null hypothesis H0 : =0 and fail to conclude that there
exist a correlation between the sample and the original population .

B: La Liga 2011-12
Correlation for the goal difference and corner difference

The value of correlation coefficient = 0.11229

Number of samples, n = 380
Degree of freedom, n-2 = 378
Step 1:
Parameter of interest is , the population correlation coefficient
Step 2:
H0 : =0
Step 3:
H1 : !=0
Step 4:
= 0.05, dof = 378
Step5:
Test Statistic t = r (n-2/1-r2)0.5
Where r = correlation coefficient
Step 6:
Reject H0 if t > 1.960 or t<-1.960
Step 7:
Obtained t0 = 2.1972
Step 8:
Since is t0 > 1.960, we reject the null hypothesis H0 : =0 and conclude that there exist a
correlation between the sample and the original population .

Correlation for the Home goals and Home corners

The value of correlation coefficient = 0.03547

Number of samples, n = 380
Degree of freedom, n-2 = 378
Step 1:
Parameter of interest is , the population correlation coefficient
Step 2:
H0 : =0
Step 3:
H1 : !=0
Step 4:
= 0.05, dof = 378
Step5:
Test Statistic t = r (n-2/1-r2)0.5
Where r = correlation coefficient
Step 6:
Reject H0 if t > 1.960 or t<-1.960
Step 7:
Obtained t0 = 0.6902
Step 8:
Since is t0 < 1.960, we fail to reject the null hypothesis H0 : =0 and fail to conclude that there
exist a correlation between the sample and the original population .

Correlation for the Away goals and Away corners

The value of correlation coefficient = 0.04321

Number of samples, n = 380
Degree of freedom, n-2 = 378
Step 1:
Parameter of interest is , the population correlation coefficient
Step 2:
H0 : =0
Step 3:
H1 : !=0
Step 4:
= 0.05, dof = 378
Step5:
Test Statistic t = r (n-2/1-r2)0.5
Where r = correlation coefficient
Step 6:
Reject H0 if t > 1.960 or t<-1.960
Step 7:
Obtained t0 = 0.84088
Step 8:
Since is t0 < 1.960, we fail to reject the null hypothesis H0 : =0 and fail to conclude that there
exist a correlation between the sample and the original population .

Chi Square Test:

Chi Square test is done to as to test whether the Goals Scored and Corners won for a team is
dependent on whether the match is played at Home or Away.

A. Premier League:
The below table below shows the observed values

Home

Away

Total

Goals

604

457

1061

Corners

2445

1877

4322

Total

3049

2334

5383

The expected values are shown below,

Home

Away

Total

Goals

600.964

460.036

1061

Corners

2448.036 1873.964

4322

Total

3049

2334

5383

Chi Square test for the data,

Observed Expected
O-E
[(O-E)^2] / E
604
600.964 3.036039 0.015337917
457
442.4135 14.58654 0.480923667
2445
2401.413 43.58654 0.79111172
1877
1748.587 128.4135 9.430483846
Chi
10.71785715
square
Hypothesis:
Ho: Total number of goals and corners scored is independent of where the match is played
H1: Total number of goals and corners scored is not independent of where the match is played

Decision:
Reject Ho if chisquare calculated chi square (=0.05,=1)

Calculated chisquare, 20 = 10.71785715

Threshold 2 = 3.481
Since, 20 > 2, We reject the null hypothesis that number of goals and corners scored is
independent of where the match is played and conclude that the number of goals and corners are not
independent on whether the match is played at Home or Away in the English Premier league .

B. Spanish League:
The below table below shows the observed values

Home

Away

Total

Goals

638

412

1050

Corners

2371

1779

4150

Total

3009

2191

5200

The expected values are shown below,

Home

Away

Total

Goals

607.5865 442.4135

1050

Corners

2401.413 1748.587

4150

Total

3009

2191

5200

Chi Square test for the data,

Observed
638
412
2371
1779

Expected
O-E
[(O-E)^2] / E
607.5865 30.41346 1.522381725
442.4135 -30.4135 2.090756098
2401.413 -30.4135 0.385180918
1748.587 30.41346 0.528986483
Chi
4.527305225
square

Hypothesis:
Ho: Total number of goals and corners scored is independent of where the match is played
H1: Total number of goals and corners scored is not independent of where the match is played

Decision:
Reject Ho if chisquare calculated chi square (=0.05,=1)

Calculated chisquare, 20 = 4.527305225

Threshold 2 = 3.481
Since, 20 > 2, We reject the null hypothesis that number of goals and corners scored is
independent of where the match is played and conclude that the number of goals and corners is not
independent on whether the match is played at Home or Away in the Spanish league .

Conclusions:
From our study we conclude the following.
1. Team that wins the majority of the corners wins majority of the matches
2. There is only a weak correlation between the Goal difference and Corner difference
3. Both the number of goals as well as the number of corners depends on where the match is
played and the number is observed to be significantly higher for the home team
4. There are no significant differences in the correlation data for the English and the Spanish
leagues, even though the number of corners is higher in the English league.

Bibliography

Applied Statistics in Business and Economics

http://soccernet.espn.go.com/results/_/league/eng.1/english-premier-league?cc=4716
http://soccernet.espn.go.com/fixtures/_/league/esp.1/spanish-la-liga?cc=4716