Energy Conversion and Management 70 (2013) 139148

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Energy Conversion and Management

journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/enconman

General models for estimating daily global solar radiation for different
solar radiation zones in mainland China
Mao-Fen Li a, Xiao-Ping Tang b, Wei Wu c, Hong-Bin Liu a,d,
College of Resources and Environment, Southwest University, Chongqing 400716,
China Shapingba Meteorological Bureau, Chongqing 400030, China
College of Computer and Information Science, Southwest University, Chongqing 400716, China
Chongqing Tobacco Science Institute, Southwest University, Chongqing 400716, China
a

ARTiCLEiNFO

Article history:
Received 22 November 2012
Accepted 2 March 2013
Available online 2 April 2013
Keywords:
General model
Solar radiation zone
Temperature-based
Sunshine-based kMeans

ABSTRACT

Empirical models, proposed to estimate solar radiation (Rs) in various areas, were site-specific in essence.
However, it is questionable when they are applied to other stations where there is no record of Rs. This
study aimed to develop general models to estimate daily Rs for different solar radiation zones in mainland China. Daily weather data including Rs, sunsh ine duration, relative humidity, maximum and minimum temperatures were collected and analyzed from 83 stations. Two types of simple empirical
equations, namely, temperature- and sunshine-b ased models, were obtained for each site. Five Rs zones
were determined by k-means clustering algorithm based on long-term mean daily Rs. For each zone, the
general model for Rs estimation was developed based on geographical factors (latitude, longitude and
altitude) and site-specific models. Coefficient of residual mass (CRM), mean bias error (MBE), mean percentage error (MPE), root mean square error (RMSE) and percent root mean square error (%RMSE) were
used to investigate the model performance. The comparative results between measure d and estimated
daily Rs showed that the general models had an acceptable accuracy. It is believed that the general models developed in this work can be reliable and applicable for the locations without available Rs data in
mainland China.
2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction
Solar radiation (Rs), as a vital primary input for crop models
11,2], earth eco-envir onment model 13] and building energy efficiency codes 14], is measured at limited stations worldwide due to
the cost and techniqu es involved. For instance, there are more than
2500 ground meteorological observation stations in mainland China,
but only 98 of them have recorded daily Rs 15,6]. Long term
measured daily global Rs data are not available for most areas in
China, especially in remote rural and mountainou s areas, where
about 80% Chinese inhabited 17]. Hence, methods to estimate Rs for
the locations with no records of solar radiation are of great
significance.
By reviewin g the literature, two types of empirical models,
namely, temperat ure-base and sunshine-ba sed, are used exten-sively
to estimate Rs at present 1825]. All of these models have easily
accessible input parameters (such as temperatures, precipi-tation,
relative humidity , dew point temperature, and sunshine
Corresponding author at: College of Resources and Environment, Southwest
University, Chongqing 400716, China. Tel.: +86 23 6825 1069; fax: +86 23 6825
0444.
E-mail address: lhbin@swu.edu.cn (H.-B. Liu).
0196-8904/$ - see front matter 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enconman.2013.03.004

hours), reasonable accuracy (root mean square error ranging between 1.0 and 6.0 MJ m 2 d 1) and convenient applications . However, most of them are in essence site-specific. Also, it is
questionable whether they could be applied to other locations where
there is no record of observed Rs. Besides, some physical-based
models for Rs estimation that can be applied generally are usually
in complex form 119,22].
In China, two zoning were proposed for building designs thermal climate zones (GB50176-93) 126] and solar climate zones 127].
Based on the average temperatures in the coldest and hottest months
of the year, five thermal climate zones called severe cold (SC), cold
(C), hot summer and cold winter (HSCW), mild, and hot summer and
warm winter (HSWW) (GB50176-93) 126] were de-rived. Recently,
Lau et al. 127] proposed solar climate zones in terms of monthly
mean daily clearness index derived from 123 stations. For Rs
estimation at these zones, Lam et al. 128] develope d sun-shine-ba
sed models using artificial neural networks (ANNs) to esti-mate daily
Rs for 40 cities covering nine major thermal climatic zones and subzones. Wan et al. 129] conducted a study of daily Rs estimation for
thermal and solar zones using clearness index and sunshine duration
extracted from 41 stations. They found that the regressio n models
tended to have slightly smaller mean bias error (MBE) and root mean
square error (RMSE) than ANN approaches.

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M.-F. Li et al./Energy Conversion and Management 70 (2013) 139148

Then they concluded that there was little to choose between thermal and solar climate zone models.
However, both aforementione d zoning were based on measured
monthly data rather than daily global Rs data. Different data were
required for identifying different climatic characterist ics with respect to the intended application [29]. Consideri ng the simplification of calculatio n, this study complemented earlier work with the
following objectives : (1) to identify different solar radiation zones
using observed long-term mean daily Rs, (2) to propose and validate site specific daily Rs estimation models based on measured
sunshine hours and temperat ures and relative humidity, respectively, and (3) to develop general models based on the best performed models and site geographical indicators to estimate daily
global Rs for different Rs zones in mainland China.
2. Data and methods
2.1. Data gathering
Daily data, including Rs (MJ m-2 d-1), maximum and minimum
temperature s (Tmax and Tmin, OC), sunshine hours and relative humidity
(Hum, %), were provided by the Chinese National Cli-matic Data
Center (CDC). There are 98 stations measured and re-corded daily
global solar radiation in China [21], while the data of 83 stations
(Fig. 1 and Table 1) in mainland China before 2000 were used in
this study. Data quality control is first conducted by the suppliers.
For the present study, records with missing data indicated by 32,766
were removed from the data set. Missing data were replaced with
means of the nearby points. A month with more than five continuous
missing or faulty data was eliminated.
2.2. Solar radiation zoning
Zoning would give a better understand ing of the distribution of
Rs and an overview of the general solar radiation climatic conditions within a region. There are different ways to classify zones
according to different criteria using different climatic variables

and indices in China [30]. This depends largely on the purpose of

establishi ng such classification. For solar radiation modeling, longterm records of observed solar radiation should be considered for
solar radiation zoning. Measured daily Rs around 40 years of 83
stations in China were used in the current study (Table 1). A consensus clustering technique k-means clustering method was used
to identify solar radiation zones. The k-means clustering tech-nique
divides the high-dim ensional data space into a number of clusters,
each one defined by a prototype and formed by the data for which
the prototype is the nearest. Existing research showed that k-means
clearly outperform ed classical climate classifications (Kppen
Geiger approach) [31].
The process of clustering was conducted in SPSS 18.0. Initially,
long-term mean daily Rs data for all years of 83 stations were calculated and arranged in a data matrix. Five clusters were set in advance in accordance with existing zones in China and maximum
iterates (100) were set for the large quantity of data. When the
iteration (assign each observati on to the cluster whose mean is
closest to it and calculate the new means to be the centroids of the
observations in the new clusters) stopped until no reclassifica-tion
was necessary, five solar radiation zones were obtained by k-means
clustering methods (Fig. 1). The Rs zoning could be of inter-est for
further solar radiation estimation.
2.3. Solar radiation modeling
Two types of commonly used Rs estimating models, namely
temperat ure-based and sunshine-ba sed models, were adopted. The
independen t variables were Tmax, Tmin, and Hum for tempera-turebase d models and sunshine hours for sunshine-base d equa-tions.
Table 2 showed the models used in the present study to estimate
global Rs on a horizontal surface. In view of the practical propertie s
and easy to operate of Rs estimating, linear models were constructed
with measured Rs, temperat ures, sunshine duration and relative
humidity to estimate daily global Rs in mainland China. Models 14
were based on temperat ures and relatively humidity while models 5
and 6 were based on sunshine hours, respectively .

Fig. 1. Distribution of the studied stations in different solar radiation zones in mainland China.

141

M.-F. Li et al./Energy Conversion and Management 70 (2013) 139148

Table 1
Meteorological stations and period of daily data records used in this study.
Station
Heihe
Hailaer
Harbin
Altai
Qitai
Yining
Urumchi
Turpan
Kuqa
Kash
Ruoqiang
Hetian
Kumul
Dunhuang
Jiuquan
Minqin
Gangcha
Golmud
Xining
Lanzhou
Erenhot
Haliut
Hohhot
Datong
Yinchuan
Taiyuan
Yanan
Anyang
Xilinhot
Tongliao
Changchun
Yenki
Chaoyang
Shenyang
Beijing
Tianjin
Leting
Dalian
Yantai
Jinan
Gar
Nakchu
Lhasa
Yushu
Golok
Chamdo
Ganzi
Chengdu
Emeishan
Chaotung
Lijiang
Panzhihua
Tengchong
Kunming
Jinghong
Mengzi
Tianshui
Xian
Zhengzhou
Nanchong
Wanhsien
Yichang
Wuhan
Chongqing
Changsha
Zunyi
Guiyang
Guilin
Ganzhou
Gushi
Nanjing
Hefei
Baoshan

Longitude (, E)

Latitude (, N)

Altitude (m)

Data period

127.27
119.45
126.46
88.05
89.34
81.2
87.37
89.12
82.54
75.59
88.1
79.56
93.31
94.41
98.29
103.05
100.08
94.54
101.46
103.53
111.58
108.31
111.41
113.2
106.13
112.33
109.3
114.22
116.04
122.16
125.13
129.28
120.27
123.27
116.17
117.04
118.54
121.38
121.15
116.59
80.05
92.04
91.08
97.01
100.15
97.1
100
104.01
103.2
103.45
100.13
101.43
98.3
102.41
100.48
103.23
105.38
108.56
113.39
106.05
108.21
111.18
114.08
106.28
112.55
106.55
106.43
110.18
114.57
115.4
118.48
117.14
121.29

50.15
49.13
45.45
47.44
44.01
43.57
43.47
42.56
41.48
39.28
39.02
37.08
42.49
40.09
39.46
38.38
37.2
36.25
36.37
36.03
43.39
41.34
40.49
40.06
38.29
37.47
36.36
36.07
43.57
43.36
43.54
42.53
41.33
41.44
39.56
39.05
39.25
38.54
37.3
36.41
32.3
31.29
29.4
33.01
34.28
31.09
31.37
30.4
29.31
27.2
26.52
26.35
25.01
25.01
22
23.23
34.36
34.18
34.43
30.48
30.48
30.42
30.37
29.35
28.13
27.41
26.35
25.19
28.52
32.1
32
31.52
31.24

166.4
610.2
142.3
735.3
793.5
662.5
917.9
34.5
1072.5
1288.7
888.3
1374.6
737.2
1139.0
1477.2
1367.0
3301.5
2807.6
2261.2
1517.2
964.7
1288.0
1063.0
1067.2
1111.4
778.3
958.5
75.5
989.5
178.5
236.8
176.8
169.2
42.8
54.0
2.5
10.5
91.5
32.6
51.6
4278.0
4507.0
3648.7
3681.2
3719.0
3306.0
3393.5
506.1
3047.4
1949.5
2393.2
1190.1
1654.6
1891.4
552.7
1300.7
1368.0
397.5
110.4
297.7
432.7
133.1
23.3
259.1
68.0
849.3
1074.3
194.4
123.8
57.1
8.9
27.9
3.5

19612000
19601968, 19721977, 19822000
19612000
19602000
19871990
19602000
19592000
19612000
19571990
19572000
19572000
19572000
19612000
19572000
19932000
19612000
19932000
19572000
19592000
19592000
19572000
19922000
19591966, 19681968
19612000
19611967, 19732000
19612000
19902000
19611990
19902000
19601992
19591981, 19832000
19602000
19632000
19612000
19572000
19592000
19922000
19632000
19952000
19612000
19712000
19611968, 19722000
19611968, 19712000
19601973, 19782000
19932000
19611968 19702000
19942000
19612000
19612000
19611967, 19691990
19611967, 19691974, 19762000
19922000
19612000
19611967, 19692000
19612000
19612000
19601966
19612000
19612000
19811990
19611967, 19681990
19612000
19612000
19612000
19882000
19611990
19612000
19612000
19612000
19612000
19612000
19612000
19912000

Data No.
14,478
12,077
14,610
14,911
1461
14,941
15,340
14,548
12,235
15,808
15,918
15,920
14,570
15,769
2922
14,608
2922
15,828
15,340
15,221
15,917
3288
2585
14,609
12,625
14,610
4018
10,956
3987
9799
14,945
14,915
13,759
14,607
15,951
15,339
3288
12,386
2160
14,605
10,499
13,025
13,573
12,871
2922
14,183
2557
14,610
14,578
10,401
13,330
3288
14,577
13,848
14,394
14,609
2280
14,601
14,606
3652
10,743
14,546
14,578
14,426
4749
10,954
14,608
14,457
14,244
14,518
14,610
13,929
3653

Solar climate
zone [27]

Thermal climate
zone [26]

II
II
III
II
II
II
II
II
II
II
II
II
I
I
II
II
I
I
II
III
I
II
II
II
II
III
III
III
II
III
III
III
III
III
III
III
III
III
III
III
I
II
I
II
II
II
II
V
III
III
II
III
III
III
III
III
III
IV
III
V
V
IV
IV
V
IV
V
V
IV
IV
III
IV
IV
IV

SC
SC
SC
SC
SC
SC
SC
Mild
SC
Cold
Cold
Cold
SC
Cold
SC
SC
SC
SC
SC
Cold
SC
SC
SC
SC
SC
Cold
Cold
Cold
SC
SC
SC
SC
SC
SC
Cold
Cold
Cold
Cold
Cold
Cold
SC
Cold
Cold
Cold
SC
SC
Cold
HSCW
HSCW
Mild
Mild
Mild
Mild
Mild
Mild
Mild
Cold
Cold
Cold
HSCW
HSCW
HSCW
HSCW
HSCW
HSCW
HSCW
Mild
HSCW
HSCW
HSCW
HSCW
HSCW
HSCW
(continued on next page )

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M.-F. Li et al./Energy Conversion and Management 70 (2013) 139148

Table 1 (continued)
Station

Longitude (, E)

Latitude (, N)

Shanghai
Hangzhou
Cixi
Lushan
Nanchang
Fuzhou
Shaoguan
Guangzhou
Shantou
Nanning

121.26
120.1
121.1
115.59
115.55
119.17
113.36
113.19
116.41
108.21

31.1
30.14
30.16
29.35
28.36
26.05
24.48
23.08
23.24
22.49

Altitude (m)
4.5
41.7
7.1
1243.3
46.7
84.0
68.7
6.6
1.1
73.1

Data period
19611990
19612000
19611990
19611990
19612000
19612000
19611990
19612000
19612000
19612000

Table 2
Models proposed in this study.
Model No.
1
2
3
4
5a
6

Data No.
10,957
14,610
10,773
10,957
14,543
14,579
10,957
14,549
14,606
14,580

RMSE1/4

a, b, c and m were coefficients. n was the daily actual sunshine duration (h), N was
the daily maximum possible sunshine duration (h). R0 was daily extraterrestrial

radiation on horizontal surface (MJ m~2 d~1).

R0 and N were calculated by Allen et al. [32] and Liu et al. [33], respectively.
a
ngstrmPrescott model [8,9].

The data set were randomly divided into a calibrate d dataset (in
this study, 67% of the whole data) and a validation data set (33% of
the whole data). The calibrated set was used to develop Rs estimating models and the validation set was used to evaluate the models.
The general model for each zone was then developed using the
coefficients of the best performed models and the site geographical
indicators (altitude, latitude, and longitude). Correlations were
built between the coefficients of best performed model and the
correspondi ng site geographical indicators, because some
researchers found that coefficients of estimating models varying
with latitude and ngsrm coefficients strongly correlate d to latitude (or elevation) [34].

2.4. Statistical evaluation

The performance of the models was evaluated in terms of the
following statistical indices: root mean square error (RMSE), mean
bias error (MBE), coefficient of residual mass (CRM) mean percentage error (MPE) and percent root mean square error (%RMSE), an
indicator of the overall relative accuracy of a model. MBE is an indication of the average deviation of the estimated values from the
correspondi ng measured data. A negative value of MBE indicates
the amount of overestimat ion in the estimated global Rs and vice
versa. RMSE provides informat ion on the short term performanc e
and is a measure of the variation of estimate d values around the
measured data. Low value of RMSE indicates that the estimation
model performs well. MPE can be defined as the percentage deviation of the estimate d and measured daily solar radiation. CRM denotes the overall under- or over-estimati on. A positive value of
CRM indicates the tendency of the model to under estimate the Rs,
whereas the negative value of CRM shows a tendency to overestimate solar radiation. In general, a positive MBE (the tendency of
the model to underestimati on) coincides with a positive CRM and
vice versa. While in the same tendency (under- or over-esti-mation),
value of RMSE was the conclusive index on the performance of the
studied models in the current study. The five indicators were
calculated as follows:

Thermal climate
zone [26]

IV
IV
IV
IV
IV
IV
IV
IV
IV
IV

HSCW
HSCW
HSCW
HSCW
HSCW
HSCW
HSWW
HSWW
HSWW
HSWW

ffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi
Pni1/41Oi ~ Ei2
1

Models
Rs =( a ~ T max+ b ~ T min+ c ~ Hum ) ~ R 0+ m
Rs =( a ~ T max+ b ~ T min) ~ R 0+ c ~ Hum )+ m
pfiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi
Rs 1/4 a ~ T max ~ T min b ~ Hum ~ R0 m
pfiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi
Rs 1/4 a ~ T max ~ T min ~ R0 b ~ Hum m
Rs/R0 = a ~ n/N + m
Rs = a ~ n + b ~ R 0 + m

Solar climate
zone [27]

1 n
MBE1/4

Oi ~ EiX

n i1/41

Pni1/41Oi~ Pni1/41Ei

CRM 1/4

Pn

i1/41Oi

Oi

3
4

%RMSE 1/4 RMSE

O 100
5
where n was the number of validatio n data of each site; Oi and Ei
was daily observed and estimated Rs, respective ly. was the mean
value of observed Rs. The indicators were capable for performanc e
compari son between studied models at each zone. For compar ison
of model performanc e between solar radiation zones, CRM and
%RMSE were fairer than RMSE and MBE, for CRM and %RMSE
were dimens ionless. In this study, model accuracy was consider ed
excel-lent when %RMSE < 10%; good if 10% < %RMSE < 20%; fair
if 20% < %RMSE < 30%; and poor if %RMSE P 30% [35,36]. All
calcula-tions were done in SPSS 18.0.
3. Results and discussion
3.1. Solar radiation zones
Five solar radiation zones (Table 3) were obtained by k-means
clustering and shown in Fig. 1, Stations of zone 1 (eight sites)
mainly concentr ated in Yunnan province. A total of 21 stations in
zone 2 scattered in the upper basin of Yangtze River and Yellow
River. In zone 3, the seven stations distributed in Sichuan Basin,
particular ly, along the borders of Yunnan, Sichuan and Chongqing
province s. And stations of zone 4 occurred in the SE coastal area
in the south of 35N. The rest stations belonged to zone 5 and
spread in the NE and NW China.
It was clear in Table 3 that zone 2 had abundan t solar resource s
~
~
with annual averaged daily Rs of 17.406 MJ m 2 d 1, followed as
~
~
zone 1 which had annual averaged daily Rs of 15.022 MJ m 2 d 1,
~
~
zone 5 of 14.246 MJ m 2 d 1, zone 4 of 12.362 MJ m~2 d~1 and zone 3
~
~
of 9.782 MJ m 2 d 1.
Solar radiation zoning in the present study was slightly differ-ent
from the published solar climatic zones using monthly mean daily
clearness sky index [27] and different from the thermal cli-mate
zones (GB50176-93) [26] (Fig. 1 and Tables 1 and 3). For in-stance,
Rs zone 1 in the current study was largely in line with the solar
climate zone III-B [27] and mild climatic zone (GB50176-93)

1 n
MPE1/4 X Ei ~ Oi

n i1/41

143

M.-F. Li et al./Energy Conversion and Management 70 (2013) 139148

Table 3
Summary of the five solar radiation zones derived in current study.
Zone Stations

Station
No.

Average Rs
(MJ m2 d1)

1
2

8
21

15.022
17.406

7
19

9.782
12.362

28

14.246

3
4
5

Emeishan, Chaotung, Lijiang, Panzhihua, Tengchong, Kunming, Jinghong, Mengzi

Kuqa, Ruoqiang, Hetian, Kumul, Dunhuang, Jiuquan, Minqin, Gangcha, Golmud, Xining, Erenhot, Haliut, Hohhot, Yinchuan,
Gar, Nakchu, Lhasa, Yushu, Golok, Chamdo, Ganzi
Chengdu, Nanchong, Wanhsien, Yichang, Chongqing, Zunyi, Guiyang
Xian, Wuhan, Changsha, Guilin, Ganzhou, Gushi, Nanjing, Hefei, Baoshan, Shanghai, Hangzhou, Cixi, Lushan, Nanchang,
Fuzhou, Shaoguan, Guangzhou, Shantou, Nanning
Heihe, Hailaer, Harbin, Altai, Qitai, Yining, Urumchi, Turpan, Kash, Lanzhou, Datong, Taiyuan, Yanan, Anyang, Xilinhot,
Tongliao, Changchun, Yenki, Chaoyang, Shenyang, Beijing, Tianjin, Leting, Dalian, Yantai, Jinan, Tianshui, Zhengzhou

Fig. 2. Comparison of daily global Rs of observed, best modeled and general modeled at representative stations of each zone.

144

Table 4
Performance of the proposed solar radiation estimation models for mainland China.
Zone

Site

MBE (MJ m-2d-1)

M1

M2

M3

RMSE(MJm-2d-1)
0.65
-0.2
0.41
-0.77
0.68
1.34
0.23
0.26
0.33

4.19
-0.9
-1.26
-2.55
0.97
-1.17
0.11
-0.47
-0.14

0.86
0.31
0.47
-1.38
0.82
0.06
0.73
0.59
0.31

4.56
3.88
3.23
3.46
3.51
3.66
4.61
3.73
3.83

4.68
3.98
3.27
3.5
3.87
3.91
4.41
3.8
3.93

4.68
3.89
3.3
3.5
3.84
4.03
5.06
3.76
4.01

4.91
4.02
3.38
3.57
3.92
4.03
4.53
3.79
4.02

3.39
2.94
2.26
1.7
2.88
3.02
2.8
2.68
2.71

3.50
3.02
2.29
1.78
2.90
3.02
2.84
2.64
2.75

6.11
4.01
3.57
4.19
3.67
3.88
4.69
3.79
4.24

3.46
3
2.29
2.09
2.91
2.69
2.83
2.78
2.76

0.07
-0.01
0.02
-0.07
0.04
0.01
-0.06
0.01
0

0.13
0.03 -0.01
-1.04
-1.21
0.1 -0.67
-0.25 -0.31
1.15 0.37
-1.17 -1.3
1.68 -0.32
-1.20 -0.48
0.06 -0.56
-0.66 -0.86
-0.68 -0.41
-0.51 -0.09
2.87 1.68
-0.75 -0.63
-1.67 -1.73
-0.03 -0.55
-0.8 -0.27
-1.51 -1.73
-0.38 0
-0.27 -0.48

0.33
0.0 9
-0.94
-1.10
-0.60
-0.49
0.3
-1.34
-0.29
-0.42
-0.32
-0.8
-0.45
0.0 3
1.87
-0.48
-1.67
-0.31
-0.29
-1.63
0
-0.41

-0.16
-0.87

1.86
0.51
0.1
1.27
0.54
-0.18
-0.72
-0.11
1.09
-1.17
0.85
-0.27
-0.32
-0.74
0.73
-1.98
-1.08
-0.48
0.23
-1.73
0.40
-0.06

3.72
3.37
3.34
3.58
3.50
3.38
4.26
3.88
5.10
4.19
4.69
3.98
4.24
4.02
6.69
6.25
4.26
5.22
3.97
4.35
3.23
4.25

3.71
3.37
3.35
3.43
3.49
3.37
4.23
3.88
5.10
4.21
4.36
3.94
4.19
3.99
6.67
6.18
4.23
5.12
3.86
4.32
3.23
4.20

3.7
3.45
3.35
3.21
3.39
3.32
4.11
3.86
4.03
4.01
6.01
3.77
4
3.85
6.37
6.41
4.14
5.64
3.72
4.34
3.06
4.18

3.79
3.46
3.46
3.28
3.43
3.41
4.16
4.02
4.19
4.11
5.26
3.76
4.02
3.93
6.31
6.31
4.15
5.44
3.72
4.38
3.11
4.18

2.21
2.22
2.13
3.49
1.99
1.53
2.28
2.58
1.71
2.31
2.23
1.85
2.46
1.85
5.22
5.36
3.53
2.60
1.78
3.65
1.64
2.60

2.42
2.36
2.22
3.45
2.12
1.72
2.07
2.54
1.85
2.53
2.30
2.03
2.57
2.12
5.42
5.30
3.47
2.58
1.93
3.55
1.77
2.68

3.61
3.57
3.53
3.23
3.46
3.53
3.98
4.04
4.01
4.22
5.84
3.77
3.89
3.96
6.13
6.68
3.94
5.72
3.65
5.19
3.17
4.24

3.06
2.38
2.01
2.38
2.10
1.59
2.17
2.1
2.03
2.56
2.29
1.66
2.49
2.08
4.97
5.79
3.39
2.58
1.89
3.64
1.97
2.63

0
0
-0.06
0
-0.02
0.08
-0.08
0.17
-0.08
-0.03
-0.05
-0.03
-0.04
0.14
-0.09
-0.10
-0.03
-0.07
-0.11
-0.04
-0.02

0
0
-0.05
0.01
-0.01
0.07
-0.08
0.16
-0.09
-0.02
-0.05
-0.04
-0.04
0.14
-0.08
-0.10
-0.02
-0.07
-0.1
-0.04
-0.02

0.01
0
-0.04
0.01
-0.01
0.07
-0.07
0.11
-0.08
0
-0.04
-0.04
-0.03
0.13
-0.05
-0.09
-0.01
-0.05
-0.1
-0.02
-0.02

0
0
-0.04
0.01
-0.02
0.07
-0.07
0.10
-0.08
0
-0.04
-0.04
-0.03
0.13
-0.05
-0.09
0
-0.05
-0.1
-0.02
-0.02

-0.71 -0.75 -1.32 -0.50

-0.13 -0.12 0.21 0.09
-0.03 0.0 3 -1.01 -0.51
-0.03 -0.04 -0.64 0.24
0.41 0.36 -0.52 0.04
-0.83 -0.87 -0.89 -0.67

3.34
3.51
3.49
6.64
2.98
3.11
3.62
3.81

3.37
3.54
3.63
5.93
3.04
3.14
3.60
3.75

3.35
3.53
3.58
6.9
3.13
3.16
3.86
3.93

3.57
3.74
3.92
6.06
3.26
3.43
3.76
3.96

2.41
2.60
2.48
2.78
2.53
2.84
3.21
2.69

2.49
2.63
2.51
2.94
2.5
2.82
3.21
2.73

3.56
3.53
3.73
5.97
3.09
3.21
3.61
3.81

2.37 -0.16
2.6 -0.06
2.53 -0.08
2.8 -0.08
2.48 0
2.75 -0.09
3.21 0.01
2.68 -0.07

-0.16
-0.03
-0.07
-0.08

-0.15
-0.04
-0.07
-0.07

-0.16 -0.08
-0.01 -0.02
-0.08 0
-0.08 0

3.66 3.67 3.68 3.80 3.56 3.75 4.08

4.11 4.23 4.33 4.41 3.02 3.1 4.1
0.24 3.5 3.61 4.02 3.88 2.94 2.99 3.69
-0.75
3.97 4.01 4.06 4.12 2.93 2.95 4.20
0.12 3.47 3.45 3.78 3.62 2.26 2.36 3.59
0.07 6.64 5.98 7.36 6.78 2.93 3.05 7.02
-0.58
3.81 3.73 3.93 3.86 2.23 2.38 3.87
-0.37
6.46 5.52 7.27 6.15 2.66 2.79 7.20
1.03 4.93 4.53 5.01 4.67 2.64 2.71 4.57
-0.14
4.27 4.16 4.35 4.26 2.34 2.45 4.06
-0.12
4.15 4.06 4.21 4.17 2.95 3.11 4.6
-0.66
4.86 4.57 4.68 4.56 2.93 2.99 4.44
-1.07
5.93 5.97 6.4 6.21 3.67 3.73 5.73
-0.35
4.34 4.36 4.57 4.51 3.35 3.47 4.27
0.59 4.06 4.1 4.32 4.3 3.54 3.56 5.22
-1.40
4.29 4.27 4.36 4.37 3.48 3.54 5.03
-0.56
5.49 5.09 5.52 5.05 2.61 2.65 6.11
0.26 3.96 4.05 4.24 4.25 2.21 2.3 4.11
1.11 3.59 3.67 4.06 3.92 3.26 3.32 3.81
-0.14
4.50 4.37 4.74 4.57 2.92 3.01 4.72

3.70
3.05
2.90
2.95
2.26
2.85
2.2
2.67
2.78
2.3
2.89
2.91
3.65
3.29
3.50
3.29
2.68
2.27
3.28
2.92

-0.47

1.95 -0.03 -0.05 -0.03 -0.05

1.96 -0.03 -0.03 -0.03 -0.04
2.77 0.04 0.03 0.05 0.04
2.19 -0.04 -0.02 -0.03 -0.03
2.47 -0.12 -0.14 -0.12 -0.13
2.34 0.01 0.01 0.01 0
2.31 -0.04 -0.04 -0.04 -0.05
1.79 -0.03 -0.03 -0.02 -0.03
2.93 -0.09 -0.09 -0.08 -0.09
2.33 -0.07 -0.07 -0.07 -0.07
2.12 -0.10 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1

0.92 1.07 1.19 1.03

-0.06 0.11 0.24 0.18
0.25 0.18 0.17 0.14
-1.09 -1.01 -0.89 -0.91
0.63 1.27 1.05 0.9
0.18 0.47 0.76 0.44
-0.97 -1.11 -0.37 -1.08
0.17 0.16 0.19 0.1
0
0.14 0.29 0.1

Kuqa
Ruoqiang
Hetian
Kumul
Dunhuang
Jiuquan
Minqin
Gangcha
Golmud
Xining
Erenhot
Haliut
Hohhot
Yinchuan
Gar
Nakchu
Lhasa
Yushu
Golok
Chamdo
Ganzi
Mean

-1.27 -1.26 -1.11 -1.18

Chengdu
Nanchong
Wanhsien
Yichang
Chongqing
Zunyi
Guiyang
Mean

-1.33
-0.56
-0.7
-0.84

Xian
Wuha n
Changsha
Guilin
Ganzhou
Gushi
Nanjing
Hefei
Baoshan
Shanghai
Hangzhou
Cixi
Lushan
Nanchang
Fuzhou
Shaoguan
Guangzhou
Shantou
Nanning
Mean

-0.67
-1.43
-0.19
-1.04
-0.16
-1.36
-0.89
-1.03
-0.37
-1.07
-0.48
-1.18
-2.17
-1.12
-0.63
-2.26
-1.76
-1.35
-0.13

Heihe
Hailaer
Harbin
Altai
Qitai
Yining
Urumchi
Turpan
Kash
Lanzhou
Datong

-0.34 -0.59 -0.39 -0.55

-0.44 -0.41 -0.46 -0.47

0.0 1 0.01 0.11

-0.05 0
0.05
-1
-0.81 -0.66
0.0 1 0.11 0.14
-0.28 -0.23 -0.24
1.3 1.23 1.21
-1.3 -1.3 -1.13
2.94 2.7 1.86
-1.26 -1.32 -1.17
-0.59 -0.41 0.01
-0.84 -0.81 -0.66
-0.56 -0.71 -0.65
-0.58 -0.6 -0.52
3.15 3.15 2.93
-1.52 -1.26 -0.87
-1.98 -1.92 -1.67
-0.52 -0.39 -0.13
-1.17 -1.12 -0.83
-1.69 -1.6 -1.52
-0.67 -0.67 -0.42
-0.37 -0.34 -0.25
-1.37
-0.26
-0.67
-0.85

0.0 2 0
-0.73 -0.84
0.0 9 -0.02
-0.58 -0.57

-0.05
-0.74

-1.26 -1.40
-0.34 -0.07
-0.63
-0.7
-0.69
-0.8
0.05 -0.02
-0.73 -0.97
0.12 -0.01
-0.5 -0.57

-0.67 -0.73 -0.83

-1.49 -0.98 -1.35

0.20
-0.98
-0.23
-1.74
-0.98
-1.35
-0.11
-1.45
-0.6
-1.12
-2.08
-1.04
-0.59
-2.15
-1.82
-1.16
-0.06
-1.02 -1.02

0.53 0.42
-0.53 -0.33
-1.52 -1.82
0.21 0.15
-0.52 -0.57
-0.43 -0.38
-1.3 -1.38
-1
-0.95
-1.46 -1.49

0.23
-0.7
-0.05
-0.74
-0.69
-0.45
0.28
-0.84
-0.29
-1.02
-2.07
-0.89
-0.4
-1.82
-1.3
-0.51
0.44
-0.66

0.62
-0.36
-1.54
0.11
-0.53
-0.31
-1.17
-0.95
-1.41

0.36
-0.88
-0.18
-1.36
-0.85
-1.07
0.27
-1.21
-0.48
-1.1
-2.09
-0.92
-0.46
-2.01
-1.61
-0.86
0.18
-0.87

0.49
-0.38
-1.66
0.03
-0.67
-0.42
-1.31
-1.03
-1.43

0.37
-0.55
-0.51
-0.70
-0.65
0.77
1
-1.43
-0.06
-0.31
-0.04
0.18
2.45
-1.76
1.02
-1.28
-0.41
-3.17
0.37
-0.27

0.78 0.73 0.12 0.73

-0.08 -0.09 -0.58 -0.08
1
-1.06
0.50
-0.6
-0.06
-0.31
-0.63
0.16
0.53
-0.4
0.56
-0.5
-1.06
-0.67
0.72
-1.76
-0.22
0.04
1.1
-0.14

1.19
-1.02
0.43
-0.58
0.0 4
-0.35
-0.58
0.16
0.54
-0.37
0.57
-0.49
-1
-0.67
0.73
-1.76
-0.14
0.1
1.10
-0.11

-1.09 1.15
-0.76 -1.15

0.62
-1.65
-1.08
-0.38
-1.43
-2.02
-0.20
-1.09
-2.15
-0.34
-1.47
-0.29
-3.26
-3.47
-2.66
1.09
0.72
-1.1

-0.41 -0.5 -0.74

-0.63 -0.26 0.42
0.69 0.92 -0.19
-0.92 -0.64 0.30
-1.5 -1.42 -1.39
-0.84 -0.8 -0.17
0
0
-0.26
-0.58 -0.45 -2.29
-0.97 -0.98 -0.94
-0.34 -0.39 -1.59
-1.17 -1.02 -1.51

4.01 3.8
0.10 4.02 3.89
0.37 4.46 4.24
-0.77
4.15 4.03
-1.52
3.77 3.88
-0.75
4.11 4.01
-0.85
4.69 4.38
-0.03
5.06 4.93
-0.99
4.05 4.08
-1.11 4.3 4.28
-0.46
4.37 4.3

3.69 3.68
3.67 3.66
4.21 4.12
3.89 3.93
3.58 3.7
3.84 3.88
4.24 4.17
4.64 4.54
4
4.11
4.26 4.4
4.09 4.09

2.01
2.15
2.83
2.24
2.48
2.37
2.14
1.89
2.87
2.09
2.44

2.47
2.32
3.18
2.40
2.73
2.5
2.47
2.15
3.01
2.48
2.67

3.70
3.61
4.05
4.09
3.60
3.92
4.22
5.19
4.02
4.55
4.14

M2

M3

M4

M5

0.08
0.01
0.01
-0.07
0.08
0.03
-0.07
0.01
0.01

0.09
0.02
0.01
-0.06
0.07
0.05
-0.02
0.01
0.02

0.08
0.01
0.01
-0.06
0.06
0.03
-0.07
0.01
0.01

0.0 4
-0.01
0.0 3
-0.05
0.0 5
0.0 9
0.0 1
0.0 2
0.0 2

0.05
-0.02
0.02
-0.05
0.05
0.09
0.02
0.02
0.02

0
-0.07
-0.08
-0.17
0.06
-0.08
0.01
-0.03
-0.05

0.07
0.02
0.03
-0.09
0.05
0
0.05
0.04
0.02

-0.08 -0.08 -0.07 -0.08

0.0 1
0
-0.07
-0.07
-0.04
-0.02
0.0 2
-0.08
-0.02
-0.03
-0.03
-0.05
-0.02
-0.01
0.0 8
-0.04
-0.09
-0.03
-0.02
-0.11
0
-0.03

0.02
0.01
-0.06
-0.07
-0.03
-0.03
0.02
-0.08
-0.02
-0.03
-0.02
-0.05
-0.03
0
0.09
-0.03
-0.09
-0.02
-0.02
-0.11
0
-0.03

-0.01
-0.05

0.12
0.03
0.01
0.08
0.03
-0.01
-0.04
-0.01
0.06
-0.08
0.05
-0.02
-0.02
-0.05
0.03
-0.12

-0.06
-0.13
-0.02
-0.10
-0.01
-0.11
-0.08
-0.09
-0.03
-0.09
-0.04
-0.1
-0.19
-0.1
-0.05
-0.21
-0.16
-0.1
-0.01

%RMSE
M2

M3

M4

M3

M4

M5

0.34
0.23
0.44
0.05
0.29
0.11
0.25
0.3
0.25

0.32
0.23
0.47
0.06
0.29
0.09
0.26
0.29
0.25

0.3
0.19
0.35
0.0 6
0.27
0.0 9
0.23
0.3
0.22

0.29
0.26
0.42
0.07
0.29
0.12
0.27
0.28
0.25

0.17
0.62
0
0.14
0.07
0.08
0.05
0.06
0.15

0.18
0.68
0.01
0.16
0.07
0.09
0.06
0.07
0.17

0.41
0.63
0.14
0.44
0.25
0.73
0.27
0.25
0.39

0.26
0.63
-0.01
0.2
0.07
0.25
0.03
0.04
0.18

36.02
27.9
19.29
22.88
23.08
24.69
30.4
24.58
26.11

36.95
28.65
19.47
23.19
25.46
26.38
29.11
25.04
26.78

36.93
28.01
19.67
23.19
25.26
27.21
33.4
24.79
27.31

38.78
28.92
20.18
23.66
25.75
27.2
29.89
24.98
27.42

26.77
21.14
13.47
11.24
18.95
20.38
18.46
17.65
18.51

27.66
21.73
13.66
11.8
19.06
20.41
18.74
17.41
18.81

48.22
28.84
21.27
27.75
24.13
26.21
30.93
25.02
29.05

27.28
21.58
13.66
13.81
19.1
18.13
18.67
18.32
18.82

0.16
0.21
0.25
0.09
0.13
0.18
0.09
0.09
0.07
0.03
-0.04
0.39
0.24
0.18
0.46
0.55
-0.04
0.16
0.18
0.13
0.21
0.19

0.17
0.21
0.26
0.09
0.12
0.16
0.08
0.09
0.08
0.3
-0.05
0.4
0.2
0.16
0.46
0.58
-0.04
0.16
0.17
0.13
0.21
0.19

0.15
0.2
0.24
0.0 8
0.12
0.14
0.0 8
0.0 8
0.0 7
0.28
0.0 3
0.36
0.28
0.15
0.48
0.55
-0.04
0.14
0.18
0.1
0.2
0.18

0.17
0.21
0.25
0.09
0.13
0.15
0.08
0.09
0.08
0.31
0.02
0.39
0.19
0.14
0.5
0.59
-0.04
0.14
0.16
0.1
0.2
0.19

0
0.02
0.38
0.19
0.06
0.04
0.05
0.19
0.04
0.14
0.07
0.08
0.22
0.18
0.01
0.17
0.12
0.06
0.03
0.17
0.01
0.11

0.03
0.03
0.39
0.19
0.07
0.05
0.05
0.18
0.04
0.15
0.08
0.09
0.21
0.19
0
0.17
0.12
0.06
0.03
0.17
0.02
0.11

0.13
0.13
0.17
0.13
0.12
0.14
0.21
0.17
0.05
0.44
0.12
0.12
0.45
0.39
0.07
0.35
-0.01
0.23
0.08
0.33
0.03
0.18

0.01
0.07
0.12
0.03
0.07
0.09
0.14
0.16
-0.01
0.25
0.05
0.08
0.28
0.3
0.11
0.24
0.05
0.03
-0.01
0.13
-0.06
0.1

24.17
19.86
20.77
21.35
19.94
20.1
25.16
22.33
26.55
27.43
27.65
24.41
25.23
24.82
30.48
38.92
22.21
31.48
23.25
28.03
18.3
24.88

24.1
19.86
20.83
20.49
19.84
19.99
24.97
22.33
26.55
27.57
25.73
24.15
24.97
24.64
30.38
38.46
22.06
30.88
22.6
27.83
18.3
24.6

24.02
20.31
20.87
19.2
19.29
19.71
24.26
22.24
20.99
26.27
35.48
23.11
23.84
23.81
29.02
39.91
21.62
33.99
21.77
27.93
17.36
24.52

24.61
20.38
21.53
19.56
19.52
20.27
24.58
23.15
21.79
26.93
31.05
23.08
23.93
24.28
28.74
39.3
21.65
32.84
21.81
28.19
17.62
24.51

14.36
13.08
13.25
20.83
11.35
9.09
13.47
14.83
8.9
15.16
13.14
11.32
14.67
11.46
23.75
33.35
18.41
15.71
10.43
23.5
9.3
15.21

15.68
13.91
13.82
20.6
12.09
10.23
12.21
14.62
9.62
16.61
13.58
12.44
15.32
13.08
24.7
33
18.13
15.54
11.29
22.85
10.03
15.68

23.42
21.07
21.98
19.27
19.71
20.96
23.48
23.25
20.85
27.67
34.46
23.13
23.16
24.47
27.89
41.55
20.56
34.48
21.37
33.39
17.94
24.96

19.84
14.05
12.5
14.19
11.97
9.42
12.83
12.07
10.58
16.8
13.5
10.19
14.85
12.87
22.61
36.02
17.67
15.58
11.07
23.46
11.16
15.39

0.09
0.61
0.62
0.69
0
0.01 0
0.0 5
0.85
-0.1 -0.09 -0.11 -0.1
0.49
0
0.01 0
0.0 8 0.08 0.01 0.08 0.34
-0.06 -0.06 -0.06 -0.01 -0.01 -0.07 -0.01 0.53

0.09
0.63
0.49
0.72
0.61
0.26
0.15
0.42

0.0 7
0.48
0.49
0.4
0.67
0.2
0.21
0.36

0.07
0.57
0.42
0.75
0.75
0.09
0.09
0.39

0.62
0.57
0.61
0.69
0.66
0.85
0.4
0.63

0.68
0.64
0.71
0.77
0.75
0.88
0.41
0.69

0.67
0.67
0.83
0.9
0.76
0.63
0.48
0.71

0.8
0.69
0.79
0.68
0.81
0.77
0.41
0.71

38.86
38.44
37.36
63.82
35.12
36.63
37.12
41.05

39.25
38.77
38.86
56.98
35.77
36.96
36.95
40.51

39
38.7
38.35
66.33
36.84
37.15
39.62
42.28

41.58
40.98
41.98
58.24
38.39
40.35
38.58
42.87

28.06
28.48
26.59
26.72
29.8
33.39
32.96
29.43

29
28.87
26.93
28.26
29.47
33.15
32.91
29.8

41.48
38.74
39.97
57.41
36.38
37.73
37.08
41.26

27.63
28.45
27.16
26.95
29.22
32.32
32.95
29.24

-0.06 -0.06 -0.07 0.0 9 0.10 -0.09 0.10

-0.14 -0.09 -0.12 -0.1 -0.09 -0.07 -0.11

0.5
0.42
0.68
0.77
0.44
0.35
0.97
0.75
0.88
0.77
0.5
0.54
0.84
0.78
0.74
0.25
0.61
0.68
0.33
0.62

0.49
0.4
0.69
0.77
0.38
0.23
0.7
0.67
0.85
0.56
0.49
0.63
0.66
0.79
0.75
0.2
0.71
0.5
0.35
0.57

0.31
0.38
0.6
0.68
0.39
0.24
1.11
0.69
0.7
0.69
0.54
0.41
0.72
0.83
0.64
0.22
0.82
0.65
0.32
0.58

0.38
0.37
0.68
0.72
0.35
0.15
0.82
0.65
0.98
0.55
0.54
0.57
0.64
0.82
0.66
0.18
0.78
0.47
0.35
0.56

0.39
0.64
0.36
0.63
0.32
0.25
0.47
0.61
0.38
0.34
0.39
0.65
0.63
0.65
0.16
0.63
0.42
0.16
0.39
0.45

0.51
0.73
0.45
0.67
0.34
0.37
0.57
0.8
0.48
0.39
0.51
0.76
0.68
0.7
0.21
0.68
0.43
0.16
0.41
0.52

0.88
0.91
0.45
0.83
0.52
0.91
0.84
0.94
0.87
0.91
0.85
0.9
0.91
0.93
0.73
0.85
0.92
0.86
0.49
0.82

0.32
0.76
0.45
0.75
0.31
0.31
0.6
0.72
0.27
0.37
0.49
0.77
0.77
0.81
0.2
0.8
0.45
0.11
0.43
0.51

31.44
37.48
32.7
37.68
28.51
53.78
32.26
55.91
41.08
35.48
36
40.88
50.51
37.77
34.64
40.47
50.62
28.66
28.8
38.67

31.49
38.65
33.75
37.99
28.34
48.46
31.58
47.73
37.68
34.57
35.23
38.42
50.85
37.93
35
40.24
46.9
29.31
29.42
37.55

31.59
39.51
37.52
38.49
31.12
59.66
33.24
62.84
41.69
36.16
36.52
39.38
54.58
39.71
36.82
41.1
50.84
30.7
32.57
40.74

32.62
40.22
36.28
39.02
29.79
54.97
32.61
53.16
38.9
35.42
36.15
38.35
52.95
39.26
36.67
41.2
46.59
30.74
31.46
39.28

30.55
27.53
27.43
27.76
18.59
23.72
18.87
23.01
21.99
19.46
25.62
24.64
31.29
29.13
30.15
32.83
24.06
15.99
26.14
25.2

32.22
28.31
27.92
27.97
19.39
24.71
20.16
24.15
22.54
20.36
26.99
25.17
31.8
30.15
30.32
33.39
24.4
16.64
26.64
25.96

35
37.44
34.45
39.86
29.54
56.88
32.72
62.31
38.03
33.79
39.86
37.36
48.89
37.14
44.55
47.37
56.28
29.73
30.62
40.62

31.75
27.82
27.06
28.01
18.63
23.09
18.57
23.07
23.13
19.12
25.07
24.48
31.12
28.61
29.83
31.03
24.71
16.45
26.3
25.15

0.03
0.56
0.27
0.25
0.36
0.41
0.13
0.66
0.30
0.57
0.53

0.21
0.54
0.25
0.24
0.3
0.39
0.13
0.53
0.24
0.57
0.51

0.28
0.44
0.24
0.21
0.33
0.38
0.12
0.55
0.24
0.55
0.5

0.28
0.51
0.23
0.21
0.32
0.36
0.12
0.52
0.22
0.6
0.5

0.18
0.05
-0.06
0.09
0.07
0.06
0.11
0.03
0.12
0.28
0.21

0.24
0.12
0.01
0.16
0.16
0.09
0.23
0.09
0.15
0.3
0.25

0.63
0.35
0.37
0.84
0.86
0.64
0.89
0.35
0.22
0.75
0.49

0.16
-0.02
-0.06
0.1
0.2
0.26
0.12
0
0.11
0.41
0.11

33.05
29.97
33.97
28.05
29.54
27.19
34.44
33.69
26.87
30.92
30.33

31.28
28.99
32.31
27.28
30.39
26.56
32.11
32.81
27.09
30.76
29.86

30.44
27.35
32.1
26.33
28.06
25.4
31.1
30.9
26.54
30.56
28.42

30.35
27.31
31.35
26.58
28.99
25.69
30.58
30.21
27.26
31.61
28.4

16.6
16.05
21.54
15.18
19.41
15.67
15.67
12.57
19.02
15.01
16.92

20.37
17.29
24.24
16.25
21.4
16.54
18.11
14.28
19.99
17.83
18.51

30.51
26.94
30.85
27.64
28.17
25.92
30.96
34.52
26.69
32.7
28.78

16.09
14.58
21.11
14.8
19.31
15.5
16.93
11.91
19.45
16.71
14.72

0.02
-0.09
-0.02
-0.14
-0.08
-0.12
-0.01
-0.12
-0.05
-0.10
-0.18
-0.09
-0.05
-0.20
-0.17
-0.08
0
-0.09 -0.09

0.02
-0.07
0
-0.06
-0.06
-0.04
0.02
-0.07
-0.03
-0.09
-0.18
-0.08
-0.03
-0.17
-0.12
-0.04
0.04
-0.06

0.03
-0.08
-0.01
-0.11
-0.07
-0.09
0.02
-0.1
-0.04
-0.09
-0.18
-0.08
-0.04
-0.19
-0.15
-0.06
0.02
-0.07

M6 GM(T) GM(S) M1

0.02
-0.03
-0.03
-0.04
-0.04
0.04
0.02
-0.09
0.04
-0.02
0
0.01
0.11
-0.11
0.05
-0.08
-0.02
-0.20
0.02
-0.02

-0.06
-0.03

0.01
-0.11
0.02
-0.01

-0.09 -0.15 -0.06

-0.01 0.02 0.01
0
-0.11 -0.05
0
-0.06 0.02
0.04 -0.06 0.01
-0.1 -0.11 -0.08

0.0 5
-0.06
-0.01
-0.03
-0.05
0.0 1
0.0 4
-0.03
0.0 5
-0.04
-0.09
-0.06
0.0 6
-0.17
-0.02
0
0.0 9
-0.01

0.04
-0.06
0
-0.03
-0.05
0.01
0.05
-0.03
0.05
-0.04
-0.09
-0.06
0.06
-0.17
-0.01
0.01
0.09
-0.01

0.06
-0.16
-0.09
-0.03
-0.12
-0.18
-0.02
-0.09
-0.19
-0.03
-0.13
-0.03
-0.28
-0.33
-0.25
1.06
0.06
-0.05

0.02
-0.07
0.01
0.01
-0.05
-0.03
0.09
-0.01
-0.01
-0.06
-0.09
-0.03
0.05
-0.13
-0.05
0.02
0.09
-0.01

-0.03
-0.05

-0.04 -0.06
-0.02 0.03
0.07 -0.01
-0.04 0.02
-0.11 -0.11
-0.05 -0.01
0
-0.02
-0.03 -0.15
-0.07 -0.06
-0.03 -0.11
-0.07 -0.11

-0.04

0.0 5
-0.06
-0.12
-0.06
0
-0.04
-0.06
-0.02
-0.08

0.01
0.03
-0.05
-0.12
-0.05
-0.06
0
-0.07
-0.08
-0.03

M5 M6 GM(T) GM(S) M1 M2

M6 GM(T) GM(S)

M.-F. Li et al./ Energy Conversion and Management 70 (2013) 139148

0.5
-0.14
0.41
-0.72
0.69
1.35
0.18
0.31
0.32

Emeishan
Chaotung
Lijiang
Panzhihua
Tengchong
Kunming
Jinghong
Mengzi
Mean

M3 M4 M5 M6 GM(T) GM(S) M1

MPE

M5

M6 GM(T) GM(S) M1 M2

CRM

M4

enkiY
.284516739
-0
0
0.120.43
4
8
7
3
2
5
6
1
.9
0
haoyng
C
0.8
0.8
1.07280.5396827
0.675-8312
9
5
3
6
7
4
1
-2
.8
0
Shenyang -0.86 -0.77 -0.69 -0.65 -0.33 -0.24 -0.69 -0.03 4.34 4.1 4.12 4.01 2.42 2.65 3.99 2.35 -0.07 -0.06 -0.05 -0.05 -0.03 -0.02 -0.05 0
0.58 0.54 0.51 0.51 0.11 0.18 0.80.24 33.55 31.68 31.85 31.02 18.73 20.5
30.85 18.17
Beijing
-1.69 -1.6 -1.27 -1.45 -1.07 -0.99 -1.02 -0.31 4.02 3.9 3.79 3.83 2.15 2.39 3.67 1.85 -0.13 -0.12 -0.1 -0.11 -0.08 -0.07 -0.08 -0.02 0.63 0.57 0.54 0.54 0.23 0.32 0.84 0.19 29.98 29.07 28.3 28.6 16.02 17.87 27.41 13.84
ianjT
36857
0.1924
-0.12
2
5
9
7
8
3
1
6
.4
0
etingL
.362917845
-0
0.265314
0.4
7
3
8
9
4
5
6
2
.1
0
0
Dalian
0.65
0.68
1.05
1.04 1.4
1.24 3.61 0.23 5.26 4.96 5.3
5.14 3.56 3.51 6.41 3.13
0.0 5 0.05
0.07 0.07
0.1 0.09 0.25
0.02 0.30
0.22 0.24
0.2-0.09
0.36
0.08 36.56 34.42 36.77 35.72 24.69 24.37 44.48 21.7
anti
Y
.5738
-0
0.8
0.1
1.36
0.347586192
1.73
.423
-0
0.1
0.1
0.9
0 0.45
0.32
0.39
0.32 0
0.9
0.39
9
5
4
8
2
3
6
.1
0
Jinan
-0.83-0.86-0.7-0.8
0.190.22-0.77-0.533.983.933.923.932.422.593.962.29-0.07-0.07-0.06-0.060.020.02-0.06-0.040.610.530.520.490.150.260.81
0.3531.230.8430.7230.8118.9720.3131.0517.99
T
i
a
n
s
h
u
i
0
.
8
0
.
8
4
0
.
7
6
0
.
9
1

0.546712
6
5
1
7
4
9
2
8
.3
0
0.05 0.03 0.04 0.02 -0.03 -0.01 0.04 00.36 0.36 0.34 0.35 0.08 0.14 0.7

0
.
5
5

0
.
4
2

1
0
2

3.56
0.32-179
0.02 4.51 4.41 4.31 4.33 2.38 2.57 4.33 2.34

3.2.2. Models based on sunshine hours

From Table 4, it was obvious that site-specific models based
on sunshine hours performed better than those based on temperatures. Mean values of MBE varied from -0.44 MJ m-2 d-1 (zone
2) to 0.33 MJ m-2 d-1 (zone 1), mean RMSE varied between 2.45
MJ m-2 d-1 (zone 5) and 2.97 MJ m-2 d-1 (zone 4) and mean MPE
changed between 0.11 (zone 2) and 0.69 (zone 3). While
averaged CRM value changed between -0.03 (zone 2) to 0.02

0
0
9
3
0
2
1
3
0
3
2
1
7
1
3
3
1
1
7
ongliaT
0.3514
Changchun 0.63 0.46 0.5

0.312584670.27 -0.38 -0.18 0.51

0.09 33.03 32.3 31.58 31.69 17.45 18.86 31.74 17.18

2
0

.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
5

3.2.1. Models based on temperature s

For each station, daily maximum and minimum temperatures
and relative humidity were used to calibrate and validate the
proposed models. Table 4 showed the values of MBE, RMSE,
CRM, MPE and %RMSE of the different site-specific models
per-formed at each station.
On average, all these models had acceptab le accuracy with
mean MBE of -0.22 varying from -1.02 (zone 4) to 0.33 (zone
1) MJ m-2 d-1, mean RMSE of 4.21 changing between 3.75 (zone 3)
and 4.74 (zone 4) MJ m-2 d-1 and mean MPE of 0.37 varying
between 0.19 (zone 2) and 0.62 (zone 4). Models performed best in
zone 1 and worst in zone 4 with averaged CRM of 0.01 and 0.08,
respectively. Models using temperatures and relative humidity
(models 14) showed better performanc e in zones 1. From values
of MBE and CRM in Table 4, it could be found that the studied
temperature -based models were underestimate d the Rs in zone 1
whereas overestimated the Rs in zones 25.
For zone 1, model 1 performed best with mean RMSE of 3.83
MJ m-2 d-1. According to mean RMSE, model 4 performed better
than other models for zones 2 and 5. The mean RMSE of model
4 in zone 2 were 4.18 MJ m-2 d-1 and in zone 5 were 4.09 MJ m-2
d-1, respectively . For zones 3 and 4, model 2 had the best overall
results compared to others (mean RMSE of 3.75 MJ m-2 d-1 in
zone 3 and mean RMSE of 4.37 MJ m-2 d-1 in zone 4). Based on
the value of %RMSE, models based on tem-peratures were
classified as poor, and these models showed good or fair
performanc e at half of studied stations.
Fig. 2 showed the comparis ons between measured and estimated daily Rs from the best performed models (temperaturebased) at the five representi ng stations. A good agreement between measureme nts and estimations of Rs was observed with
correlation coefficients varying from 0.814 to 0.903. There
seemed to be an underlying trend of increasing agreement from
zone 5 to zones 4, 1, 2 and 3.

2
9
8
3
0
3
1
2
3
6
2
3
0

.
.

2
2
2
2
0
0
.
.
.
.
.
.
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0

.
.
.
.

0
0
.
.

.
.
.
.
.
.
.

3
0
6
2
7
8
1
.
.
.
.
.

2
3
7
6
1
0
3
5
4
4
5
4
6
1
5
2
Models614
9
0
1
0
2
2
4
4
2
0
2
4
2
1

0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0

3.2. Solar radiation estimation models for individual stations

.
5 temperature based whereas models 5 and 6 were sunshine
hours based. GM(T) represented general model based0 on temperatures; GM(S) represented general model based on sunshine hours.
were

3
0
5
5
3
l
h
0
2
i
n
t
.
.

145

[26]. In comparison with the thermal climate zones, stations

within HSWW and HSCW located along the midstream and
downstream of Yangtze River approximat ely coincided with
the current solar radiation zone (zone 4). Stations included in
SC and cold climatic zones, which were divided into three
clusters (zones IIII) by Lau et al. [27], were sorted into two
groups (zones 2 and 5) in the present zoning.
Different characteristic of Rs variability was observed among
the zones. For each zone, a representat ive station was selected to
illustrate the variation of mean daily solar radiation (Fig. 2).
Kun-ming station of zone 1 had higher solar radiation from
February to May whereas lowest Rs appeared in November . Rs
distribut ion at Golmud (zone 2) and Tongliao (zone 5) stations
showed a normal distribution curve (bell-shaped curve).
Abundant Rs was mainly observed in summer while lower Rs
was mainly found in winter. But Golmud station had higher Rs
than Tongliao station along the year. Stations of Nanchang (zone
4) and Chongqing (zone 3) both had higher Rs inJuly and lower
Rs inJanuary. However, Rs at Chongqing was decreased more
violently in August (plummeted).

7
9
5
8
4
3
2
6
.1
0
3
4
5
9
6
8
7
1
.2
0
0.229.0829.0528.4129.0220.5722.0230.8820.86
2.6-01-7543
.315
-0
2.0483-1
.892157436
-0
iyaunT
an
Y
Anyang
X
i
o
0
8
0
6

1.52-43
0.39812567-0.21-0.34-0.25-0.360.350.39-1.39-0.173.663.663.583.662.592.773.892.63-0.02-0.03-0.02-0.030.030.03-0.11-0.010.570.570.510.530.180.260.86

E
S
M
R
%
E
P
M
M
R
C
-2
d1)
(Jm
E
S
M
R
-2
d1)
(Jm
E
B
M

it
oneS
Z

Table 4 (continued)

M1 M2 M3 M4 M5 M6 GM(T) GM(S) M1 M2 M3 M4 M5 M6 GM(T) GM(S) M1 M2 M3 M4 M5 M6 GM(T) GM(S) M1 M2 M3 M4 M5 M6 GM(T) GM(S) M1 M2 M3 M4 M5 M6 GM(T) GM(S)

M.-F. Li et al./Energy Conversion and Management 70 (2013) 139148

146

M.-F. Li et al./Energy Conversion and Management 70 (2013) 139148

(zone 1). Similar to temperat ure-based models, the studied sunshine-based models underestimate d daily Rs in zone 1 whereas
overestimat ed Rs in zones 25.
In terms of RMSE, model 5 (ngstrmPrescott model) performed better than model 6 in all the five zones. Based on %RMSE,
models of sunshine based were classified as good (model 5) and
fair (model 6). And there were about 75 stations showed fair performances and over half of the studied stations displayed good performances. So it could be reasonable to develop sunshine-ba sed
general model from model 5. The comparison between measured
and estimated daily Rs from best site-specific model (sunshine
based) at representat ive stations of five Rs zones was also shown in
Fig. 2.
3.3. General models for different solar radiation zones
3.3.1. General models based on temperatures
Models performed well at individual stations according to the
statistic indicators (Table 4). But these models were site-spec ific
in nature. It was questionable when the site-depend ent models
were applied to locations with different Rs conditions [37]. So
developing a general model for each Rs zone would make a
signif-icant sense.
In the present work, a general model for each zone was obtained using geographical factors (latitude, longitude and elevation
of the stations) and the proposed equation which performed best at
the correspondi ng zone. According to RMSE, MBE, %RMSE and
MPE, the proposed model 1 was used to develop the general model
for zone 1, model 4 for zones 2 and 5, and model 2 for zones 3 and
4. The coefficients of the general models were shown in Table 5.
The performance of the general models based on temperature s for
each zone was given in Table 4.
Obviously, for the present solar radiation zone, estimated error from
general model (based on temperature s) of zone 2 got lowest errors with
mean CRM of -0.02, mean MPE of 0.18 and mean RMSE of 4.24 MJ
m-2 d-1. Whereas general model of zone 3 yielded high-est errors with
mean CRM of -0.07, mean MPE of 0.71, mean %RMSE of 41.26%,
and mean RMSE of 3.81 MJ m-2 d-1.
It was not surprising that the general models, which developed to
cater for all the stations within the correspond ing solar radiation
zones, had higher values of mean RMSE than the best performed
model at individua l station (Table 4). This was consisten t with the
finding reported by Lam et al. [28]. In terms of RMSE, the dif-

ferences in the two models (temperature-based) were smaller in

zones 2 and 3; best site-specific model had only 1.58% and 1.78% of
RMSE improvem ent to generalized model, respectively. While the
differences were larger in zones 4 and 1, RMSE of site-spec ific
model had 8.06% and 10.69% improvement, respectivel y. These
large divergences mainly occurred at Emeishan and Panzhihu a stations in zone 1 and Hefei, Fuzhou, Shaoguan and Guangzhou stations in zone 4. However, there were 21 stations where general
models performed better than best site-depend ent models in terms
of RMSE. These stations included Kuqa, Kumul, Minqin, Gol-mud,
Hohhot, Gar, Lhasa and Golok of zone 2, Nanchong of zone 3,
Wuhan, Shanghai, Cixi, Lushan and Nanchang of zone 4, Hailaer,
Harbin, Kash, Qitai, Shenyang , Beijing and Tianjin of zone 5.
General model of zone 2 performed best with mean %RMSE of
24.96% (fair) and there were 36 stations had fair performances. By
comparison with published work on daily Rs estimating using
temperat ures in China, the present general model had satisfactory
accuracy (RMSE varied between 3.81 and 4.72 MJ m-2 d-1 for Rs
zones). The RMSE of 16 evaluated temperat ure-based models in
China was 3.55.5 MJ m-2 d-1 [23], and RMSE of daily Rs estimating in Nanchang station was 4.325.16 MJ m-2 d-1 [38].
Fig. 2 showed the correlations between observed and estimate
d daily Rs from the temperature -based generaliz ed models at the
representat ive stations of the five zones. Similar fluctuation
behav-iors were also observed between the measured and estimate
d daily Rs using the best site-depend ent and general models at
these sta-tions. These results indicated that the performanc e of
the general models should be appreciated.
3.3.2. General models based on sunshine hours
General models based on sunshine hours for all zones, shown in
Table 6, were developed from model 5 and correspond ing site geographic informat ion. Validation results of sunshine-ba sed general
models were presented in Table 3. In terms of RMSE, the accuracy
of general models for zones 35 had a little advanced (about 0.01
0.06%) to the best site-specific model (model 5), though the
improvem ent did not show statistic significant. However , generalized models for zones 1 and 2 did not perform as well as the best
model, which was not surprising.
There were 43 stations that generalized model performed as well
as or even better than the best site-specific models: Hetian, Kumul,
Minqin, Gangcha, Haliut, Gar, Lhasa, Yushu, Chamdo in zone 2;
Chengdu , Nanchong, Chongqing, Zunyi, Guiyang in zone

Table 5
General model and its coefficients based on temperatures for each Rs zone.
Zone

Best model

Coefficient

a = 1.1096 x 10-3 x Lg + 1.0339 x 10-3 x La + 1.1745 x 10-5 x AL - 0.1283

b = -2.3259 x 10-3 x Lg - 1.6079 x 10-3 x La - 9.9444 x 10-6 x AL + 0.2758
c = 3.0347 x 10-4 x Lg + 4.0910 x 10-4 x La - 1.0983 x 10-6 x AL - 4.3121 x 10-2
m = -0.59 x Lg - 1.3393 x La + 1.4215 x 10-3 x AL + 100.9627

a = -2.1810 x 10-4 x Lg - 1.9361 x 10-3 x La - 5.0589 x 10-6 x AL + 0.2412

b = -1.9195 x 10-3 x Lg - 9.7064 x 10-3 x La - 3.7620 x 10-5 x AL + 0.5739
m = 0.1454 x Lg + 0.8317 x La + 2.8742 x 10-3 x AL - 45.7067

a = -3.8086 x 10-3 x Lg + 4.4710 x 10-3 x La + 2.0595 x 10-5 x AL + 0.2986

b = 4.6372 x 10-3 x Lg - 4.4339 x 10-3 x La - 1.8163 x 10-5 x AL - 0.3857
c = -1.4080 x 10-2 x Lg + 5.8467 x 10-2 x La + 2.4218 x 10-4 x AL - 0.5158
m = 1.5245 x Lg - 5.3492 x La - 2.4812 x 10-5 x AL + 21.4445

a = 1.3868 x 10-3 x Lg - 1.8841 x 10-3 x La + 1.3931 x 10-5 x AL - 7.1953 x 10-2

b = -1.1416 x 10-3 x Lg + 1.3806 x 10-3 x La - 9.7985 x 10-6 x AL + 7.0315 x 10-2
c = -1.1771 x 10-4 x Lg + 2.4810 x 10-4 x La - 1.1716 x 10-6 x AL + 1.5744 x 10-3
m = 0.1741 x Lg + 4.7798 x 10-2 x La + 2.5133 x 10-3 x AL-11.7621

a = 2.3949 x 10-4 x Lg - 2.5318 x 10-3 x La - 4.6482 x 10-6 x AL + 0.2242

b = -3.7143 x 10-4 x Lg - 8.4269 x 10-4 x La + 6.5681 x 10-7 x AL - 1.5521 x 10-2
m = -8.5609 x 10-3 x Lg + 0.3568 x La - 1.2468 x 10-4 x AL - 7.1950

Lg: longitude (E); La: latitude (N); AL: altitude (m).

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M.-F. Li et al. / Energy Conversion and Management 70 (2013) 139148

Table 6
General model and its coefficients based on sunshine hours for each Rs zone.
Zone

Best model

Coefficient

a = 3.3411 x 10- x Lg - 2.5937 x 10- x La + 4.0251 x 10- x AL + 0.2394

m = -4.0154 x 10-3 x Lg - 1.437 x 10-4 x La + 4.7267 x 10-6 x AL + 0.5809
3
3
5
a = 5.1597 x 10- x Lg - 9.0242 x 10- x La + 4.1183 x 10- x AL + 0.2754
3
3
5
m = -1.6791 x 10- x Lg - 2.8984 x 10- x La - 3.1107 x 10- x AL + 0.5764
3
3
6
a = 1.9863 x 10- x Lg - 4.0733 x 10- x La + 3.7908 x 10- x AL + 0.4855
m = -4.0766 x 10-3 x Lg + 7.2451 x 10-3 x La + 2.2822 x 10-5 x AL + 0.3525
3
4
4
a = 3.8595 x 10- x Lg + 8.1466 x 10- x La + 1.455 x 10- x AL + 0.0953
3
4
5
m = -1.4409 x 10 x Lg - 4.8707 x 10 x La - 1.9018 x 10- x AL + 0.328
a = 8.7085 x 10-4 x Lg + 1.1277 x 10-3 x La + 3.4923 x 10-6 x AL + 0.4038
m = -9.9688 x 10-4 x Lg + 2.4799 x 10-3 x La + 8.3594 x 10-6 x AL + 0.1827
3

Lg: longitude (E); La: latitude (N); AL: altitude (m).

3; Changsha, Gushi, Nanjing, Shanghai, Hangzhou, Cixi, Lushan,

Nanchang, Fuzhou, Shaoguan in zone 4 and Heihe, Hailaer, Harbin,
Altai, Qitai, Yining, Turpan, Datong, Taiyuan, Xilinhot, Changchun,
Chaoyang, Shenyang, Beijing, Tianjin, Leting, Dalian, Yantai, Jinan
in zone 5.
General model based on sunshine hours performed better than that
based on temperatures. And accordin g to %RMSE, general models
of zones 2 and 5 were good (%RMSE < 20%) while general models
of zones 1, 3 and 4 were fair (20% < %RMSE < 30%). For sta-tions,
there were 51 stations had good validation results (%RMSE < 20%)
based on sunshine general models. Since there was little work
focused on daily Rs estimation for Rs zone in China, the current
result was compared with Lam et al. [28]. They applied ANN to
estimate daily Rs for nine climatic zones [28]. RMSE value yielded
by the current study based on sunshine data was 2.325 2.916 MJ m-2
d-1 whereas RMSE of ANN model [28] for climatic zones was 1.42
3.98 MJ m-2 d-1. This indicated that the current general models had
acceptable accuracy in daily Rs estimation for Rs zones in China. The
comparison between the observed daily Rs and best modeled and
general modeled Rs were shown in Fig. 2. The closeness of measured
Rs and estimated Rs confirmed the abil-ity of the general model to
estimate daily Rs in mainland China.

sities (XDJK2011D001) and Science, and Technolo gy Projects of

China National Tobacco Corporation (CNTC) Chongqing companies
(NY20110601070002).

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4. Conclusions

[11]

The long term measured daily global solar radiation, relative

humidity, maximum and minimum temperature s, and sunshine
hours from 83 stations in mainland China were collected and analyzed. Five solar radiation zones were identified by k-means clustering based on the measured daily mean Rs. Models based on
temperature s and sunshine hours were developed and validated,
respectively . According to RMSE, MBE, MPE, %RMSE and
CRM, the best model (temperature- and sunshine-ba sed,
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regression between the coefficients of the best site-depend ent
model and the geo-graphical parameters (latitude, longitude and
elevation) of the cor-responding station were carried out to develop
the general model (temperature- and sunshine -based, respectivel y)
for each solar radiation zone. The results showed that the proposed
general mod-els for each solar radiation zone should be appreciated.
The devel-oped models are useful to estimate solar radiation when
either temperature and humidity data or sunshine hour data are
available for the locations in mainland China.

[12]

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The work described in this paper was supported by Chongqin g

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