Nova Scotia Provincial Election Polling: Further Commentary

Oct 18, 2013

Following on from some recent commentary regarding public opinion polling and election forecasting on a Newfoundland and Labrador blog (http://bondpapers.blogspot.ca/2013/10/cra-abacus-and-2013-nova-scotiageneral.html) Corporate Research Associates Inc. (CRA) is pleased to respond to a number of key points. Mr. Hollett, on his blog, raises important areas for discussion, and also points to a number of problems with CRAs performance, methodologies and public disclosure of information. What follows is some more detailed information on the recent Chronicle Herald / CRA poll, as well as on our unblemished 20+ year track record. The blogger first points to three key initial problems with our recent research results: Problem number 1: this commentator stated that anyone could have called the Liberal majority win in advance of the actual election. So, could a dead parrot have called the Nova Scotia election? Maybe, but the reason someone could have forecast a Liberal win was because CRA has been publishing the results of its quarterly polling results (from the Atlantic Quarterly Survey), as it has for the last 20+ years, and those results clearly pointed to a swell of support for the Liberal party in the last year. Without that pulse of Nova Scotia public opinion, commentators may have known that Nova Scotians were ready for change, but would have had no idea where support stood, or the degree of backing for the Liberals. Problem number 2: Despite serious issues seen in polling in advance of recent elections in BC and Alberta, telephone polling of prospective voters can be a useful and accurate way to gauge public opinion and voting intention. As some commentators have noted, not only did the Chronicle Herald/CRAs poll results accurately show how voters would cast their ballots, Abacus Data survey results released close to the election were on the mark as well. Having multiple firms post results that are accurate strengthens trust in the industry and in the methodology of telephone research. Problem number 3: Comments have indicated that the Chronicle Herald/CRA did not release enough of its data to show that the polls could explain what was going on in the campaign. In fact, there were public releases and discussion of regional differences, and the increase in support for the Liberal party in Metro in particular. Although extremely tight races such as Mr. Dexters 21-vote loss would have been difficult to predict based on polling, as shown in the following quote in the Chronicle Herald (September 20), support in Metro was clearly turning red:

But recent polls from Corporate Research Associates have shown the New Democrats trailing the Liberals in Halifax. The two parties have essentially flipped positions since 2009, said Corporate Research vice-president Margaret Chapman.
http://thechronicleherald.ca/novascotia/1155916-grits-see-metro-breakthrough Moving on to respond to other comments, the blogger said that the Chronicle Herald / CRA did not release seat predictions. This isnt the case. On October 7, CRA published general seat predictions on its website: http://cra.ca/nova-scotia-2013-provincial-election-polling-commentary/ Further, the blogger said that CRA relies on luck in its research to understand voting intention, and that we dont poll for voters. This is far from the truth. The Chronicle Herald / CRA poll asked a battery of questions of individuals to determine their voting intention as well as their likelihood of turning up on Election Day. Based on these results, the Chronicle Herald / CRA results accurately estimated voter turnout at just under 60%. Further,

Nova Scotia Provincial Election Polling: Further Commentary

Oct 18, 2013

CRAs analysis of party support takes into account likelihood of voting. Thats how our polling has been accurate for over 20 years. He has also claimed that in recent elections, including the most recent in Newfoundland and Labrador, that CRA just didnt come close at all. Thats not true. CRAs results are shown below and compare actual election results to published CRA polls (both from the Atlantic Quarterly survey, as well as from a commissioned poll by the Telegram), which clearly show that CRA numbers for decided, or decided and leaning voters are within a maximum of 3 percentage points for each party: Newfoundland and Labrador Election Oct 11, 2011 NDP Liberal PC Actual results 25% 19% 56% AQ (Q3) 24% 22% 54% Telegram 26% 17% 57%

Aug 15-Aug 31 Sept 29-Oct 3

Decided Decided / Leaning

Whats more, CRA polling has been accurate for every election within the last 20+ years. Heres some backup, showing published results from both CRAs nearest Atlantic Quarterly survey to each election, as well as commissioned results for various news outlets for each of the last few elections in Atlantic Canada: Nova Scotia Election June 9, 2009 NDP Liberal Actual results 45% 27% AQ (Q2) CBC 37% 44% 31% 28%

PC 25% 28% 26% May 7-May16 May 18-May30 Decided/Leaning Decided/Leaning

Prince Edward Island Election October 3, 2011 NDP Liberal Actual results 3% 51% AQ (Q3) 7% 59% Guardian 5% 53% New Brunswick Election Sept 27, 2010 NDP Liberal Actual results 10% 34% AQ (Q3) Telegraph Journal 16% 11% 41% 36%

PC 40% 31% 36%

Aug 10-Aug 28 Sept 23 - Sep 27

Decided Decided/Leaning

PC 48% 36% 46% August 4 - Aug 24 Sept 13-Sept 19 Decided/Leaning Decided

These results show decided or decided and leaning voting intentions, and we believe that this information, coupled with predictions for voter turnout, is a better measure of election outcomes than looking at the public in general. Its voters who determine the outcome of an election, after all.

Nova Scotia Provincial Election Polling: Further Commentary

Oct 18, 2013

The commentator claimed that research firms themselves dont follow the standards set by the MRIA on disclosure of methodology to news media. Not true. CRAs poll for the Chronicle Herald outlined sample size, margin of error, questions asked as well as polling dates, on a daily basis. Finally, accusations that CRA only issues information on the horse race and nothing else are unfounded. CRA conducts substantial public opinion polling on a wide variety of topical issues, and releases this information every quarter. The recent Chronicle Herald poll delved into most important issues facing Nova Scotians and which leader was best able to handle various crucial issues. These results were published in the Chronicle Herald on September 19 [http://thechronicleherald.ca/novascotia/1154968-herald-poll-economy-tops-voters-agenda] and were widely discussed in various forums.