Meeting A Preferred Future - A Case Study of Tennis Canada - Richard Norman

Meeting a Preferred Future:
A case study of Tennis Canada

Toronto, Ontario, Canada April 2013 by Richard Norman
Submitted to OCAD University in partial fulllment of the requirements for the degree of
Master of Design in Strategic Foresight and Innovation
COPYrIGHT NOTIcE
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercialNoDerivs 2.5 Canada License. http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/2.5/ca/ You are free to: Share To copy, distribute and transmit the work Under the following conditions: Attribution You must give the original authors credit Noncommercial You may not use this work for commercial purposes. No Derivative Works You may not alter, transform, or build upon this work. With the understanding that: Waiver Any of the above conditions can be waived if you get permission from the copyright holder. Public Domain Where the work or any of its elements is in the public domain under applicable law, that status is in no way affected by the license. Other Rights In no way are any of the following rights affected by the license: Your fair dealing or fair use rights, or other applicable copyright exceptions and limitations; The authors moral rights; Rights other persons may have either in the work itself or in how the work is used, such as publicity or privacy rights. Notice For any distribution, you must make clear to others the license terms of this work.
AcKnOWLEDGEMEnTS
Tennis is my passion and I truly believe that it can help change our world. I love tennis for its simplicity, artistry, physical demands, and emotional highs and lows. The sport has infected my life, creating lasting friendship, fun and excitement, all from a little yellow ball. My best friend taught me this game, and for that, I am grateful. I would like to extend my sincere thanks to Suzanne Stein and Michael Dila who were instrumental in structuring and shaping this document. It was through their guidance that I was able to complete this project. I am also appreciative of the contributions of Hatem McDadi, VP of Tennis Development at Tennis Canada, and entire organization. Hatem coordinated access to senior leadership, Michael Downey, Derek Strang and Eugene Lapierre, and provided introductions to players Daniel Nestor and Aleksandra Wozniak and coach Sylvain Bruneau (Fed Cup). Their input was vital to the understanding of tennis in Canada, the professional tour and changes in the modern game. I am also grateful for the help of Jessica and John Mills, which brought this project to the forefront of my mind and allowed me to explore an area of study that is deeply rooted in my passion for tennis and future thinking. Finally, I would like to thank my colleagues and classmates that have inspired and supported me throughout my time at OCAD University in the SFI program. Thanks to Angela Noussis for help with this nal revision.
DEDIcaTIOn
To my family, I would not be where I am today without their unwavering support.
Meeting a Preferred Future: A case study of Tennis Canada
TaBLE OF COnTEnTS
Copyright Notice....................................................................................................................................... 2 Acknowledgements.................................................................................................................................... 3 Dedication................................................................................................................................................ 3 List of Tables and Figures........................................................................................................................... 5 0 Executive Summary 7
Conclusions...................................................................................................................................... 79 80 82 85 87 87 89 90 91 92
6.1 Key Findings................................................................................................................................... 6.2 Business Benets of Strategic Foresight.............................................................................................. 6.3 Additional Research......................................................................................................................... 6.4 Recommendations............................................................................................................................ Strategic Partners................................................................................................................ 6.4.1 6.4.2 Social Innovations............................................................................................................... 6.4.3 Technology......................................................................................................................... 6.4.4 Revenue diversication......................................................................................................... 6.5 Summary........................................................................................................................................
1 Introduction 11 1.1 Strategic Foresight and the Three Horizons Model................................................................................. 14 1.2 Three Horizons................................................................................................................................ 15 1.3 Research Methodology and Signicance............................................................................................... 17 2 Sport, Society and Tennis 21 2.1 Sports Institutions and Social Organization.......................................................................................... 2.2 Modern Sport and Professionalism...................................................................................................... 2.3 Gender Equity and Body Image.......................................................................................................... 2.4 Race and Representation in Tennis..................................................................................................... 2.5 Persistence of Socio-Cultural Themes..................................................................................................
7 8 9
Cited Works...................................................................................................................................... 95 Appendix A Additional Trend Information ...................................................................................... 103 Appendix B Additional Detail for Opportunities and Threats (SWOT Analysis) ................................... 111
10 Appendix C Additional Tables and Stakeholder Matrices .................................................................. 123 23 24 25 28 30
LIST OF TaBLES anD FIGUrES

Table 1 - Comparison of Funding Sources, Tennis Canada and Hockey Canada...................................................... 36 Table 2 Canadian tennis participation, 20082012....................................................................................... 39 Table 3 Categorized Trends....................................................................................................................... 48 Table 4 Business Stakeholder Matrix........................................................................................................ 124 Table 5 Tennis Community Stakeholder Matrix........................................................................................... 124
3 Business Case Study: Tennis Canada 33 3.1 Background..................................................................................................................................... 36 3.2 Business Initiatives.......................................................................................................................... 37 3.3 Key Factors in the Business Model...................................................................................................... 41 4 Future Looking: Scanning, Trends and Drivers 45 4.1 Trends............................................................................................................................................ 4.1.1 Business Unusual................................................................................................................. 4.1.2 Whos Funding Whom?.......................................................................................................... 4.1.3 From East to West................................................................................................................ 4.1.4 Build Me a Player................................................................................................................. 4.1.5 My Custom Morning Jacket.................................................................................................... 4.1.6 Big Data, Big Role................................................................................................................ 4.1.7 Social-Digi-Net Inuence...................................................................................................... 4.1.8 Wheres the Middle Gone?...................................................................................................... 4.1.9 Rise of the Elder Class.......................................................................................................... 4.2 Drivers........................................................................................................................................... 4.2.1 Recalibration of Global Economy............................................................................................ 4.2.2 Governance of Technologys Advance....................................................................................... 4.2.1 Changing Character of Canadian Demographics......................................................................... 5 Meeting a Preferred Future 63 5.1 Implications................................................................................................................................... 5.1.1 Economic Environment.......................................................................................................... 5.1.2 Technology and Sport Governance........................................................................................... 5.1.3 Social Environment.............................................................................................................. 5.2 Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats.................................................................................
48 49 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 59 60 60
Table 6 Elite / High Performance Player Stakeholder Matrix......................................................................... 125 Table 7 Competitive Player Stakeholder Matrix.......................................................................................... 125 Table 8 Recreational Player Stakeholder Matrix.......................................................................................... 126 Table 9 Sport Funding 20072008 (Top Canadian Sports)............................................................................ 126 Table 10 Sport Funding 2011-2012 (Top Canadian Sports)........................................................................... 127 Table 11 Sport Canada - Total Sport Funding, Rate of Change 2008-2012....................................................... 127
Figure 1 Schematic the future-oriented Three Horizons Model........................................................................ 15 Figure 2 - Research Project Flow.................................................................................................................. 17 Figure 3 Legacy System (Horizon 1).......................................................................................................... 22 Figure 4 Persistence over time of socio-cultural themes,............................................................................... 30 Figure 5 - Active participation rates in the top ten sports in Canada, 1998 and 2005........................................... 34
66 67 68 70 71
Figure 6 Transition between an existing state and a preferred future (Horizon 2)............................................. 35 Figure 7 Horizon 2 (Transitional State)...................................................................................................... 47 Figure 8 Preferred State (Horizon 3).......................................................................................................... 64 Figure 9 - Participation Spire...................................................................................................................... 65
0 Executive Summary
Foresight is the overall process of creating an understanding and appreciation of information generated by looking aheadForesight prepares us to meet the needs and opportunities of the future.
as cited by Cuhls, 2003, p. 96
Photo by sukhchander (Flickr), available under
cc
Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial license.
Sport has a unique character whereby business and commercial interests are balanced with social and cultural benets. The social promise of sport permeates our society, from local communities to national success that is embraced by all Canadians.
It is the sharing of a common experience and celebration of our collective achievement that illustrates sports capacity for change. In doing so, participants have the guarantee of achieving amazing heights if they have the capability, without exception. Our social connection to sport and our appreciation crosses all segments of our nation and constitutes a primary driver of Tennis Canadas business model. Moreover, perpetuation of a business cycle successgcommercegplayer developmentgsuccess is critical to ensure Tennis Canadas longevity and their vision of tennis in Canada. There is a paradox between the social wellbeing inherent within ideas of fair play and inclusivity as a national doctrine for Canadian sports and the commercial activities that support them. Tennis Canadas stated vision for Canadian tennis shows an openness, inclusivity, and commitment to bring tennis to everyone in tennis, regardless of their ability, class, gender, or ethnicity: a true Canadian vision for the sport. But, What if Tennis Canada cant achieve its vision for Canadian tennis? How are we to understand the complex narrative of legacy, external conditions exerting stresses to preventing successful achievement of their mandate?
The research study use strategic foresight to look at the conditionality surrounding achieving a preferred future. Through identication of signals, trends and drivers, external conditions can be modeled through Tennis Canadas current business model to determine what stresses and constraints are present. The research takes a look at how these conditions may impact Tennis Canadas business operations for a possible future 10-15 years from now.
What were the Key Findings?

A question of Agency - who maintains control, how does this affect policy and implementation, are there modications that could benet key stakeholders while increasing likelihood of success? Persistence of Legacy Conditions - continued presence of socio-economic mega-drivers, how do these weighty social issues continue to inuence tennis in Canada? Advancing Technology - how does a governing body deal with technologys rapid rate of change? Embracing benecial aspects while mitigating risk? Sensitivity towards Public Perception and changing attitude of Canadians - how to maintain prominence while addressing the shifts in demographics, social connectedness, and diversity.
View externals as dynamic systems the ability to analyze conditions as changing, dynamic systems, whose behaviours and impacts require a uid and adaptive response that can incorporate change within its structure, as required. Adding greater resiliency incorporating empathetic qualitative methods with existing business model, including quantitative analysis such as forecasting, provides a robust and yet adaptive modeling capability.
illustration of how strategic foresight framing can help in the planning of strategic options over long-term horizons. It is particularly suitable for medium-sized businesses that are typically focused on much shorter planning cycles. Having a comprehensive, adaptive and responsive methodology to investigate business and business innovation is the goal and hope for most enterprises, ensuring longevity and sustained viability now and into the future. The goal is to help businesses prepare for possible futures, minimizing the surprise and accommodating reasonable risks. Implementing these within the structure of current business operations adds new possibilties and offers additional insights. Areas for further research and action The research conducted for the masters thesis provided a foundation that can be built on to enhance the ndings. Including additional stakeholder engagement, helping to direct new research to specic areas that are of strategic importance for Tennis Canada based on their internal direction and business objectives. The use of foresight techniques may augment existing strategic planning, extending the scope, reach and depth to help ensure the best possible results.
What are the Recommendations to achieve a Preferred Future?

Strategic Partners A split of leveraging existing relationships with key strategic partners under uncertain conditions. Managing relationships with primary funding sources and all levels of government, as well as provincial tennis associations. These are priorities to maintaining national vision for sport. Social Innovation Meeting challenges posed by Canadian changing demographics, Tennis Canada agility to capitalize on nature and behaviours of an aging population. Tennis as a life-long sport is well positioned to keep Canadians in better health while providing a connector to strengthen a social fabric susceptible to dramatic change. Technological Advancement Tennis Canada will need to manage the stresses posed by an increasing rate of technology change to ensure their priorities can be achieved throughout the spectrum of tennis players, as well as policing the sport to maintain an agreed upon level of purity. Revenue Diversication as with many business entities, having a diverse nancial base is a key factor in continued success. For Tennis Canada, reliance on Rogers Cup as primary source of revenue exposes benet and risk within the same mechanism. A model for diversication protects Tennis Canada from potential restriction of activities.
Why use Strategic Foresight and look at longrange planning horizons?

A broader scope for investigation strategic foresight looks beyond the scope of normal business operations to anticipate external factors and conditions, which could impact business viability. In essence, minimize the surprise of the future.
cc
Other research possiblities

Government policy design Policy designed to meet healthcare, demographic and shifting funding considerations impacting sport service and delivery under increasingly economically austere conditions. International federation comparison Understanding conditions, training regimes, nationwide distribution and logistics. How the use of technology drives recruitment, enhances training capabilities and fosters inclusivity. Dive into Big Data The use of Big Data to predict success and determine possible individualized training and development that are are personally attributed to a given athlete, directed to specic physical, emotional, and psychological needs. Embracing the need for innovative technology. Ethics and Sport Tennis Canada must be diligent in addressing the ethical implications of nanotech, bio-enhancement and new technology that can be used to change the nature of the athlete. 9
Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial license. Photo by taberandrew, Flickr
Conclusions
Sport can engage minds and bodies, and provide a social outlet that is benecial to a participants physical, mental and emotional wellbeing. This study examined tennis position within Canadian culture, at present and into the future. The study serves as an 8
1 Introduction
Sport has a unique character whereby business and commercial interests are balanced with social and cultural benets.
At the same time that sport is a product of social reality, it is also unique. No other institution, except perhaps religion, commands the mystique, the nostalgia, the romantic ideational cultural fixation that sport does
Frey & Eitzen, 1991
Photo: After All, Youre Still You (Flickr), available under
cc
10
11
The era of modern sport has introduced a complex set of economic activities supporting the continuum of play from a beginners introduction to a professionals triumph at the highest level. There is a paradox between the social wellbeing inherent within ideas of fair play and inclusivity as a national doctrine for Canadian sports and the commercial activities that support them. By examining the contradiction, valuable insights can be found to guide Canadian sport through an uncertain present towards a new viable future, and provide new processes applicable for other types business. The social promise of sport permeates our society, from local communities to national success that is embraced by all Canadians. It is the sharing of a common experience and celebration of our collective achievement that illustrates sports capacity for change. In doing so, participants have the guarantee of achieving amazing heights if they have the capability, without exception. Our social connection to sport and our appreciation crosses all segments of our nation and constitutes a primary driver of Tennis Canadas business model. Moreover, perpetuation of a business cycle success commerce player development success is critical to ensure Tennis Canadas longevity and their vision of tennis in Canada. However, an unsettling question arises from the inquiry:
The Federal Government, Sport Canada & Tennis Canada Sports are a reection of cultural and societal values and therefore are connected to public wellbeing. The Canadian federal government recognizes the benet of sports to the public at a national level by placing national sporting initiatives within a federal government ministry, specically Canadian Heritage. The ministrys mission states that Canadian Heritage should promote an environment in which all Canadians take full advantage of dynamic cultural experiences, celebrate our history and heritage, and participate in building creative communities (Canadian Heritage, 2012). The federal government promotes multiculturalism and diversity as core Canadian values, both nationally and internationally, and this is reected in the vision of Canadian Heritage (2012): [Canadian Heritages] vision is one of a Canada where all Canadians can celebrate our rich cultural diversity, our shared experiences and values, and where all can gain a greater understanding and appreciation of our history, heritage, and communities. We see a Canada that invests in the future by supporting the arts, our two ofcial languages and our athletes. Canadian Heritages perspective is relevant to this study as Sport Canada is governed by the ministrys mandate and adopts its vision and values. The themes of equality, celebration of diversity and inclusion are the foundation of Sport Canadas mission: The mission of Sport Canada is to enhance opportunities for all Canadians to participate and excel in sport. This is achieved by enhancing the capacity and coordination of the Canadian sport system, encouraging participation in sport and enabling Canadians with talent and dedication to achieve excellence in international sport. (Sport Canada, 2012) Tennis Canada is the non-prot, national sporting association responsible for the development and governance of tennis in Canada (Tennis Canada, 2012a). Tennis Canada is partially supported by public funds, provided through Sport Canada. In accordance with the mandates of Sport Canada and Canadian Heritage, Tennis Canadas mission, vision and values are representative of a public desire to have sport (and tennis) reect the cultural diversity of the nation.
What if Tennis Canada cant achieve its vision for Canadian tennis?
The preferred future for Tennis Canada and Sport Canada is one that expresses a vision of sport that is representative of Canadas diverse national character. The research begins with a premise of open, equitable access to tennis and resources (i.e. facilities, programs, and support funding) that is essential to achieve Tennis Canadas vision and ensure long-term economic viability. Resolving the challenges in meeting such a future will assure nancial stability and continue growth solidifying tennis as a top national sport. Conversely, failure to overcome barriers and challenges may result in tennis losing public attention and venturing towards irrelevance. Hence, equity and inclusion are critical strategies not only to ensure tennis maintains its current prominence, but also has opportunity to continue growing as one of Canadas top sports. 12
Determining the viability of a business future requires Tennis Canadas programs to develop communitycentric tennis and foster participation as well as player the collection, analysis and synthesis of a broad range development are expressions of this desire and policy: of inputs. Specic tools and models are needed to produce evidence-based conclusions that can assist in strategic planning. This study uses Tennis Canada as a Tennis Canada shall lead the growth, promotion and case study to demonstrate the value of the strategic showcasing of the sport of tennis in Canada, build a foresight approach. The scope of the research is system that helps produce world class players, and demonstrated in the primary research questions: What foster the pursuit of excellence for all. In addition, it trends and drivers might affect Tennis Canadas business is notable that diversity and equity are promoted as some of the key values that ground the organization as outlook over the next decades? How might Tennis Canada reach its preferred future? The research explores present a whole. (Tennis Canada 2012) issues and tensions that will affect the future of tennis in Canada over the next 10 15 years. Tennis Canadas business model is a self-sustaining loop, wherein success at the professional level helps The intent is to determine how strategic foresight can to generate revenue from commercial activities. be integrated with conventional strategic planning to Increased revenue then provides funding for programs enhance current practices, and thus lead to exible, and player development at all levels, which in turn helps to ensure success at competitive and elite levels. adaptive and responsive actions that can support businesses operating under increasing uncertainty. As Tennis Canadas CEO Michael Downey asserts, the This study provides an example of a strategic foresight perfect model [here] is when its a circle between methodology for medium-sized businesses. The develop[ment] and commercial. Commercial raises aim is to analyze the current business and to offer money that helps development, development has success that helps raise money that helps commercial assessments and recommendations that can be used as inputs for longer-term strategic planning. The result (Michael Downey, personal interview, August 2012). of this study is a research structure that integrates Tennis Canadas role as the governing body for Canadian strategic foresight and traditional business modeling tennis means that their mandate is to establish tennis techniques (e.g. a SWOT analysis). The structure is applicable to other enterprises in different as a top national sport that reects our national industry sectors. character. This study explores the concept of access as a fundamental driver of this preferred outcome, The long time horizon of 10 -15 years allows the in which continued growth ensures future economic analysis to consider factors that are beyond the stability. Access is dened as the ability of Canadians to participate in tennis, such that participants are able scope of 4-5 year planning cycles. Causal factors with inuences that are spread over decades can be to achieve individual goals, through fair, open and equitable measures. Consequently, the research centres explored. For example, disruptive social upheavals may be the culmination of many discrete events that on the examination of issues affecting individual and are the result of decades of political repression; these group participation. trends cannot be identied using shorter analysis windows. The longer time frame also allows the Case Study and Meeting a Preferred Future broader, long-term external factors that have the The research study revolves around two central potential to impede business operations to be modeled practices. First, a case study of Tennis Canada to determine the unique characters related to its business and analyzed, and the gaps and deciencies within an organization or governing system to be identied. model and sport in general. Second, the modeling Essentially, a long horizon allows planners to consider of strategic foresight techniques to evaluate legacy a wider set of criteria that inuence business conditions of persistent socio-cultural themes as operations in the past, present and future. Tennis Canada attempts to reach a preferred future enshrined by its vision for tennis in Canada.
13
1.1 Strategic Foresight and the Three Horizons Model

Predicting the future is impossible; however, understanding the trends that may shape the future is an important part of developing a strategy that can manage uncertainty and minimize risk. Strategic foresight is designed to aid in long-term strategic planning. Strategic foresight methodologies help to analyze the disconnected signals of change, and to identify potential future outcomes. Understanding the forces that drive change is fundamental to planning for a sustainable future.
Foresight is designed to complement the planning process. It evaluates diverse, unrelated and varied sources of information in order to distil the trends in the present conditions that may affect a future state. Thus, the nature of foresight is to broaden an investigation to include indicators, signals of possible change and driving forces from various domains. This study focuses on foresight methods to illustrate their contribution to the planning process.
1.2 Three Horizons

This study employs the Three Horizon model to structure the strategic foresight analysis. The model examines past and present conditions, processes and behaviours that may create conditions for a future desired state. The Three Horizons model connects past conditions to the present structure of a dominant system. The model considers how historical, social and cultural tensions can shape a transition and determine a new outcome. The use of multiple horizons for strategic planning derives from the work of Curry and Hodgson (2008), who developed the Three Horizons model, in which future desired states are explored using three horizons, each indicating a chronological progression. Curry and Hodgson describe the model as follows:
Foresight versus Forecasting Forecasting is a common business tool, used to predict possibilities arising from predicted future conditions. Predictive models and forecasting are dominant forms of future looking within economics and the business world. Forecasting is limited by the need to have known boundaries for analysis; it predicts possible future(s) Sustainability1 is dened in accordance with the based on what is known about a prescribed area of study system to which it is being applied. For the purposes of (Cuhls, 2003). In contrast, foresight allows for research this study, sustainability means the economic viability into strategic possibilities that prepare for possible future of the commercial interests associated with tennis conditions. As Cotes (1985) points out, it is predicated on in Canada. Specically, this means that sufcient the role of uncertainty within the boundaries of analysis. revenue is available to fund the programs that allow Tennis Canada to achieve its vision. The economic Foresight includes qualitative and quantitative means for sustainability of Tennis Canada is contingent on monitoring clues and indicators of evolving trends and Canadians participating in tennis. Their participation developments and is best and most useful when directly is necessary to ensure that tennis will continue to grow linked to the analysis of policy implications. Foresight at all levels, from initial entry, to competitive streams, prepares us to meet the needs and opportunities of the to professional tours, and to solidify tennis as one of future. (as cited by Cuhls, 2003, p. 96) Canadas top sports. Forecasting is not used in this study. The use of Strategic foresight methodology has a number of forecasting in conjunction with strategic foresight advantages for long-term strategic planning. It is may offer mutual benet, as cross-disciplinary research not prescriptive, but provides a technique to observe techniques may add rigor and redundancy to an analysis. the current conditions that shape possible futures; However, this study focuses on foresight to demonstrate knowledge of the future impact of these conditions can its advantages for strategic planning; in particular, how then inform operations and policy. Coates presents the foresight permits analysts to change the parameters relationship between foresight and planning as follows throughout the process. Forecasting uses a quantitative (as cited in Cuhls, 2003, p. 96): approach based on known variables, and does not incorporate factors that emerge during research. However, Foresight is the overall process of creating an its predictive quality is useful and a combination of understanding and appreciation of information generated techniques encourages informed results, leading to better by looking aheadForesight prepares us to meet decision-making. the needs and opportunities of the future. Foresight in government cannot dene policy, but it can help 1. In this study, sustainability is modeled on the Quadruple Bottom Line condition policies to be more appropriate, more exible, (QBL), an extension of John Elkingtons (1997) Triple Bottom Line model and more robust in their implementation, as times and presented in Cannibals with Forks The triple bottom line of 21st century Sustainable business practices bounded by QBL balance environcircumstances change. Foresight is, therefore, closely tied business. mental, social, cultural (including governance), and economic factors when to planning. It is not planningmerely a step in planning. determining business viability. 14
The Three Horizons method begins with an initial horizon (Horizon 1) indicating a past & present environment representing the dominant system, characterized by incremental change and an incompatibility of t as conditions along the timeline change; a second horizon (Horizon 2) is an intermediate space in which the rst and third horizons collide. This is a space of transition typically unstable. It is characterized by clashes of values in which competing alternative paths to the future are proposed by actors (pp. 2-3). The clash of values experienced in Horizon 2 produces a turbulent mix of tactics, processes and behaviours, some from the current system and others generated from visions of a possible future. The nal horizon (Horizon 3) envisions a new system that ts the changed conditions. As an idealized state, Horizon 3 may be infused with value judgments and subjective biases about how conditions will react and drive change.
Figure 1 Schematic the future-oriented Three Horizons Model (Source: Curry & Hodgson, 2008)
STRATEGIC FIT Degree of strategic fit with external environment
1st Horizon
Visions of the Future
2nd Horizon
Pockets of future embedded in present 3rd Horizon TIME

15
Historical and Socio-Cultural Themes (Horizon 1) Historical socio-cultural themes such as class-based economies, race and gender inuence the dominant systems in society and sport. The elements of the current dominant system are detailed in Section 2, which describes their relationship to governance and resource allocation in Canada. Social conditions and the speed with which they do or do not change affect sports, and continue to shape the social systems surrounding tennis today. Consequently, a review of the historical development of tennis is useful for the analysis of long-term socio-cultural trends and their implications for the present and possible future outcomes. These conditions are global, and must be considered when examining the conditions within Canada. Tennis has a rich history from its French origins to its association with the English aristocracy through to the development of the modern game. This historical legacy is characterized by a tradition of exclusion. As participation is dependent on access to resources and facilities, investigating how these origins have shaped the structure of the sports governance helps us to understand the present circumstances. Tennis is perceived as a sport of means and, in fact, success in tennis requires considerable nancial resources to foster talent and to play year-round in Canada. Canadian tennis is not exempt from the legacy exclusion; rather, it is complicit with it. Exploring the origins of this bias helps us to identify this inuence where it still exists. Although tennis may require substantial resources to play year-round, entry into the sport is relatively low cost and it can be easily played during the summer months. Therefore, issues of access may have more to do with control over year-round facilities and long-term equipment and support costs. The situation is comparable to hockey in Canada. Yearround hockey participation is contingent on indoor facilities, but while indoor hockey facilities tend to be publically available, access to tennis facilities requires membership. Case Study and a Preferred Future (Horizons 2 and 3) Modern sports operate through a highly organized, hierarchical structure, where organizational objectives are communicated and coordinated from a centralized source. Tennis Canada is the Canadian national 16
organization governing tennis. It is central to the promotion of tennis in Canada and is integral to its future. Tennis Canada has identied key areas for development, including player development, increased participation, achieving success at elite international competitions, and ensuring the overall health and sustainability of the sport in Canada. As stated in their vision, Tennis Canada shall lead the growth, promotion and showcasing of the sport of tennis in Canada, build a system that helps produce world class players, and foster the pursuit of excellence for all (Tennis Canada, 2012b). This study analyses the trends and drivers in these areas that are contributing to possible future conditions. Possible futures are evaluated using foresight methods and business analysis tools, and the effect of these forces on Tennis Canadas ability to achieve their objectives is considered. The purpose is to generate insight into how future conditions may affect processes and operations. The outputs from the research study include material designed to help in long-term strategic planning. The model used in the case study is the Three Horizon model, which denes a transitory state (Horizon 2) between a legacy system (Horizon 1) and a desired outcome (Horizon 3). The transitory stage is a period of ux where processes and activities that may lead to the desired outcome are established, but the shift into a new system of organization has not occurred. The analysis of the preferred state, Horizon 3,considers the effects of current trends and drivers, and their implications for Tennis Canadas business model. It uses a SWOT analysis to illustrate internal and external constraints.
cc
1.3 Research Methodology and Signicance
Past, present and future states are modeled as Horizon 1 (past), Horizon 2 (present, transitory) and Horizon 3 (future), respectively. The preceding diagram shows the methodology workow that combines business analysis from a case study framework, strategic foresight techniques, and synthesis of approaches illustrated through a future facing SWOT analysis.
This study examines the factors, such as the availability of facilities and supporting resources that affect Canadians ability to access and participate in tennis. A case study of Tennis Canadas is used to examine The rest of this paper is organized as follows: economic viability and social acceptance in the sport. The case study framework demonstrates how strategic A. Horizon 1: Dominant existing system foresight methods can help in strategy decision making, i. Literature review Tennis, Socio-Cultural while being sensitive to existing operational and planning Themes cycles. Tennis Canada is a medium-sized enterprise, dened as a business with 50 250 employees (European B. Horizon 2: Transition state to new system Commission, 2012). The International Tennis Federation i. Expert interviews Tennis Canada, players, (ITF) tenniss international governing body located industry professionals in London, United Kingdom uses the same denition ii. Horizon scan providing a common frame of reference for all ITF member iii. Trends and Drivers analysis nations. iv. Case Study Tennis Canada Strategic Foresight Research Framework C. Horizon 3: New desired system The research methodology uses a strategic foresight i. Case Study Tennis Canada (Preferred Future) approach and a case study. A multiple horizon view, ii. Implications from trends and drivers commonly known as the Three Horizon model (Curry iii. Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and and Hodgson, 2008), examines past, present and Threats (SWOT) Analysis (future facing) future conditions to generate implications relevant for iv. Key Findings and Conclusions business planning.
Figure 2 Research Project Flow

legacy system
horizon 1
transition state
horizon 2
preferred future
horizon 3
Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial license. Photo by Basil D Soufi - Dubai, Flickr
horizon scan trend analysis literature review expert interviews business analysis business initiatives key factors case study SWOT analysis drivers implications
next steps
strategic planning
17
Details Literature Review The literature review involved a review of previous research, including internal documents from Tennis Canada, journal articles, government white papers and books on social issues, sports, and tennis that were concerned with change over time. The review provided a basis for understand the existing system for tennis, in essence describing the rst horizon within the Three Horizons model.
Technological, Economic, Environmental, Political and Values). For this research, the scan was broad-based, and categorized issues into the STEEPV categories. Starting from the six categories, the trends were synthesized into the three categories that have the most impact on Tennis Canada. The categories were called business (economic), technological and social wellbeing (social, values).
cc
Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial license. Photo by y.caradec3, Flickr
Trends and Drivers The data from the horizon scan informed the analysis Expert Interviews of the indicators or signs of changes in society, sport Eleven expert interviews were conducted to collect and tennis. Trends and drivers were identied and information about Tennis Canada and its role as a classied as belonging to one of three categories: national sporting agency, as the owner and operator business, technology or social wellbeing. The of The Rogers Cup (Canadian Open tennis tournament), categories were chosen for their potential to disrupt and as a support system for high-performance tennis the status quo. Tennis Canadas business model players. The expert interviews were 45 minute semidetermines how conditions such as technological structured sessions that allowed participants to include advances and social change, will be experienced relevant information related to their personal expertise nancially, internally and externally. and their vision of Canadian tennis. The interviewees included senior leaders at Tennis Canada, current ATP/ Case Study WTA professional tennis players and external industry The case study framework focused the strategic professionals. The interviews provided data on current foresight techniques on a single, primary actor conditions, relevant to Horizon 2. Although the sample within a larger system. The case study provided more size was relatively small, it is representative as the detail about the organizations motivations and the number of Canadian professional tennis players and conditions shaping its operations. This information senior leaders at Tennis Canada is also small. assisted in the trend and driver analysis. SWOT Analysis A SWOT analysis is a common business tool used in strategic analysis. For this study, the SWOT used the implications from the trends and drivers analysis to construct a representation of the preferred future.
cc
A SWOT analysis independently examines the internal and external factors affecting a business. Thus, organizational changes needed to achieve success can be contrasted with external conditions acting against success. Tennis Canada also uses SWOT analysis for planning, making the model familiar and accessible to the intended audience. Signicance The Three Horizon model determined the research methods that were used to collect, analyse and synthesize the data, and to generate the outputs for each horizon. Horizon 1 A literature review was used to construct the history of tennis and its socio-cultural conditions. The data gathered in this phase was used to analyze the longterm effects of socio-cultural phenomenon on the existing tennis system. In the second phase of research, expert interviews were conducted. The interviewees were leaders within Tennis Canada, professional tennis players and industry professional; they included people connected with the tennis industry and individuals associated with other sports elds. The interviewees were chosen because of their roles within Tennis Canada and their strategic knowledge of Tennis Canadas operations. Professional tennis players, past and present, provided details on player relationships with Tennis Canada and their experience while on the professional tours; external industry professionals, some with strong ties to Tennis Canada, provided relevant information about Tennis Canadas position and role as a national sporting agency and how their promotion of tennis was viewed by various
industry sections. The sample size was small but representative, as the number of senior leaders in the organization, and the number of Canadian tennis players is small. Again, each experts testimony focused on a particular area. The interviews helped explain the business of tennis and its position in Canadian sport. Horizon 2 The horizon included a qualitative analysis of the expert interviews; the aim was to understand the present conditions in Tennis Canada and the tennis industry. A horizon scan was used to identify signals and trends, which were classied into three categories: business, technological advances and social wellbeing. The driving forces were also dened, and their inuence on the system of tennis examined. The expert interviews were synthesized to help clarify both the stated and inherent business qualities and objectives. Horizon 3 The implication process used in this horizon examined the existing processes and their ability to deliver the changes required to reach the nal, preferred state. The result guides the recommendations for strategic decisions that will make the organization resilient and responsive, with enough exibility in its structure to accommodate changes and stresses from economic and social sources. Business sustainability implies economic viability and public acceptance. However, the effects are experienced differently throughout the system. Details of how the SWOT analysis operates on multiple levels are provided in Appendix B Additional Detail for Opportunities and Threats (SWOT Analysis).
Horizon Scan The horizon scan reviewed a broad range of current media to determine the current conditions surrounding sport, tennis and Canada. The data from the horizon scan was classied using a STEEPV framework (Social,
Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial license. Photo by y.caradec, Flickr
18
19
2 Sport, Society & Tennis

Sport and culture are intimately linked, as cultural structures inform the organization, forms of competition and consumptive patterns of sports activities.
Socio-cultural structures can contribute to the tensions, barriers and friction that inhibit the transformation of our society, culture or sports. Themessuch as class-structure, gender, race and ethnicity and their associated tensionsrepresent mega-drivers2, that is large-scale, complex forces that affect society. The effects can be manifested in multiple, far-reaching systems, including global economics, social and cultural structures, and ecology.
Photo by Kris Abildgaard (Flickr), available under
cc
20
21
The Three Horizons model argues that the dominant system, Horizon 1, continues to inuence events during the transition towards a preferred state, Horizon 3. The transition period between the existing and preferred states exposes the tensions between processes in decline and those that are emerging and struggling to establish control. The transitional state, which is presently occurring, is Horizon 2. The examination of social themes reveals their persistence in our society; this persistence limits societys ability to change. Moreover, the analysis of social themes over time makes it possible to identify intrinsic structural conditions, which may either facilitate or limit the rate and scale of change. Social Themes and Tennis Tennis Open Era (Professional) was established in 1968 (Jenkins, 2011). It removed barriers between professional and amateur athletes, allowing them to compete in the same tournament events. At the
time, the social climate in North America was typied by advocacy for civil and gender rights. This focus on equality was manifested in professional sports, including tennis. Socio-economic and socio-cultural themes are ongoing structural inuences that may jeopardize the successful transition toward a preferred future. The tensions, stresses and complications may establish a wicked problem (Rittel & Webber, 1973), where solutions may be both improbable and impractical to implement. There may in fact be no viable solution within the existing social system. One benet of a strategic foresight approach is its ability to identify the effects and reveal the connections between historical factors, present processes and future conditions.
2. Mega-drivers contribute to global changes and developments changes that will affect our life in the future. Current mega-drivers include bio-science, technology, demographics, health, communication, environment, media and treats and fears. (Lenau & Lauritsen, 2009)
2.1 Sports Institutions & Social Organization

The sport of tennis has a rich history. It was originally a kingly sport played in the royal houses of Britain and France. The modern game barely resembles its distant ancestor, yet the legacy continues to have social, cultural, economic and psychological effects on the games organization, nances and participants. Institutions, facilities and organizational structures perpetuate the perception of tennis as elitist and exclusive. The institutions themselves can contribute to this public perception and bias, although they may be attempting to change it. Modern sport has been closely linked to the structural developments of our class-based society. The hierarchy of class, in particular segmentation between controlling elites and the proletariat, has been imprinted onto tennis organizational structure, both professionally and recreationally. Within Canada, the club system was based on a need to enforce separation between those with means and the workers that maintained the system, [Modern] sport in Canada and the rst opportunities for high-performance sport was fashioned in the nineteenth century by urban middle- and upper-class males of British background. They agreed upon and codied rules, and formed clubs and sports-governing bodies to enforce them (Kidd, 1997, p. 288). Tennis in Canada relies on a club-based system, where indoor facilities are available for year-round play in public, semi-private and private clubs. Membership in these clubs is restricted, primarily through the nancial resources required to join. This reinforces an already rigid structure, limiting both recreational and professional participation. Those without resources are excluded from belonging to or accessing facilities. The uneven development of the Canadian economy and its class and gender structure did not skew participation in favour of middle- and upper-class males, the ideology and practices of patriarchal amateurism did. In terms of class, from the beginning, the men who organized Canadian sports employed amateurism to limit participation and public acclaim to members of their own classes. (Kidd, 1997, p. 289)
The player represents both the subject and object in the social construct of the sport. As subject, a player is complicit in the practice of the sport; as object, the player represents an agent driving the related social, political and economic activities. Changes in the modern game are intertwined with changes in the players; players strategies for training and preparation for competitive play can contribute to adaptations and modications within the sport. Socially, images of a tennis player may still be inuenced by traditional ideas of tennis players as upper-crust gentleman, clad in white attire, strolling through pristine lawns and attended to by a myriad of staff, whose job is to ensure the pleasure of the participants and the attendees. These visions of a bygone age still affect public acceptance of the sport, and are perpetuated by a portion of the club system in Canada. Therefore, issues of access are not merely functional, but in fact, represent the challenge of overcoming a prejudice, psychologically and emotionally established in the public domain. Prior to the modern era, the idealized amateur athlete was a revered member of the social and professional elites. The privileged position of the amateur athlete was enforced through sporting political structures (e.g. the International Olympic Committee). This began to change in1961, when the Olympics were opened to professionals: The contemporary organizational structure is the end result of the transformation of sport, which has moved from chaos to the age of techno-bureaucratic organization. This organizational structure is itself historically specic, affected by the social currents that run through contemporary society. (Harvey & Cantelon 1997, p. 89) Amateur status remained integral to tennis until the merging of the professional and amateur tours in 1968. Prior to their amalgamation, the professional and amateur tours had differing agendas, participatory rules and regulations, and tournament scheduling and were frequently competing for players, resources and audience. The Open Era characterized by the development of the institutions, which administer modern tennis such as the ITF, ATP and WTA streamlined the tours into one cohesive professional stream.
Figure 3Legacy System (Horizon 1) (Adapted from Source: Curry & Hodgson, 2008)
horizon 1
horizon 2
horizon 3
legacy system
(lasting influence)
22
23
2.2 Modern Sport and Professionalism

The club system separated the players goals from the communitys goals, as competitive players required nancial resources and access to facilities to continue their development, independent of broader community concerns. Todays professional tennis player is a single, business entity, operating as an independent agent, determining where and when to participate. To participate in sanctioned events, and to receive nancial compensation, players must be aligned with governing sports agencies, including players associations, professional tours, the International Tennis Federation (ITF), the International Olympic Committee (IOC), and other regulating bodies. The professional tours, ITF and IOC recruit top-ranked players to compete in their events. This mutually benecial relationship provides players with nancial compensation in return for compliance with the rules and regulations that govern the sport.
cc
Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial license Photo by basheertome, Flickr
There is a tension within governing sports organizations, as the administrative structure of the sport supports the interests of the organization itself. Therefore, change is not based on the health of the sport, but on whether or not the changes can be incorporated into the existing system. The state has even initiated the establishment of agencies that, although based in principle on private association, are nonetheless extensions of its own apparatus. This applies to the Coaching Association of Canada, Hockey Canada, and Participaction. (Harvey & Cantelon, 1997, p. 90) The connection between sporting agencies and the social, economic, cultural and political structures reinforces a rigidity within the system, so that the processes of change may require broader, societal inuence to be effective. For any organization, awareness of the relationship between its organizational structure and the social system is critical for the evaluation of its ability to affect change and reach a desired outcome; barriers to the proposed change must be recognized before they can be overcome.
2.3 Gender Equity and Body Image

Equality has been historically absent in mens and womens sports. Males in positions of authority prescribed the ideals of sporting excellence, which in turn, limited womens exposure and access to sports, and, critically, shaped public perceptions of beauty, athleticism and female etiquette. Van Sterkenbury and Knoppers (2004) point out the socio-cultural norms that shaped this attitude: Dominant meanings given to gender and race/ ethnicity help support a socialeconomic hierarchy in which being perceived as white and Anglo-Saxon are generally rated more positively than being black and non-Anglo-Saxon; similarly, being a man is often assigned greater value than being a woman. (p. 301) Congruently, the media has had an inuential role in the continuation of this perception of gender. The media, as a male-dominated cultural form, perpetuates gender stereotypes. At the same time, the growing amount of nancial contributions from sponsorship and broadcast rights has paved the way for pay equity. Modern sports media, a male dominated institution in structure and ideology, contributes to a perpetuation of ideals surrounding sport and gender (van Sterkenbury and Knoppers, 2004). The relationship between media and sports is causal and mutually reinforcing; both sides benet from the others continuation. Such a relationship challenges attempts to change the system, as there is a strong motivation to reinforce the status quo. Pay Equity Tennis has always practiced the gender segregation that was the historical, cultural norm at the time of its origin. Modern professional tennis has made efforts to eradicate gender inequality, especially in the areas of media and nance. Pay equity has been a widely discussed issue since the 1960s. The womens professional tour has lobbied tournament administrations to allocate prize money equal to that of the mens tour. One obstacle to achieving this goal is the belief that differences in physical endurance constitute grounds for the disparity in
Canadas codication of a sport ethos in 1961 served as a primary catalyst to transform sport and sports organizations into the present, modern system. Modern sport agencies are examples of the transposition of socio-cultural structures into administrative processes:
This differentiated itself from leisure activities, with a loose organizational structure, open access, and lowgovernance. Modern sport, by contrast, appears to be fundamentally different a measure of its association with the broader social transformation of western Many of the organizational, competitive and economic societies. Modern sport is vastly more organized, structures inherent in modern sport, have origins highly structured, and regulated than was sport in dating back decades, even centuries. The modern the past. Unorganized, periodic, and localized forms sporting landscape developed in tandem with the of individual and community-based expressions of social and political organizations in Canada, and pleasure, entertainment, physical prowess, and ritual reects the historical, class-based structure. British display have been replaced by an elaborate system of and French cultural norms are evident in Canadas regionally, nationally, and internationally scheduled administration of modern sports, particularly at activities. (Gruneau, 1997, p. 249) the provincial level, where cultural ideology guides program development. These two cultural forms The formal development of sports organizations and [mass culture, professional culture] dominate the the codication of rules and regulations gave rise to type of sports promoted, clearly inuence the social the sporting professional, an individual who beneted conception of sport as much in the connotation from the organizational, administrative, ideological, that the term takes on as in the norms of sports and technical aspects of modern sport. This included participation (Harvey & Boulanger, 1997, p. 248). a wide-range of professionals who derive nancial Federally, governing bodies promote national cultural compensation from the sport and its related activities. identity through a codied ideology, exemplied by Sporting professionals become involved with fostering national pride for athletic accomplishments organizations to improve their health and quality of in international competitions, most notably through life and to achieve higher levels of performance. the Olympic and Paralympic games. Sports professionals such as physical educators and The concept of modern sport, including the organizers infest the media, especially television, elimination of amateur status, reects the and pressure the state to intervene in the eld of sport maturation of sporting systems, where nancial to promote and improve sports participation by the and nationalistic interests are expressed through general public. (Boulanger, 1997, p. 249) international competition. In Canada, Sport
Photo by Australian Paralympics, Flickr cc Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial license.
24
25
nancial compensation. The argument is that men play longer (best of 3 out of 5 sets), than the women (best 2 out of 3) (Hodgkinson, 2006), and therefore equal compensation is not warranted. This premise is discussed in the article Women in tennis what the deuce?!: Tennis is blatantly sexist. Like many sports, most of the markers and rules for achieving success are geared around masculine ideals of strength, stamina, power and speed. Because women cannot compete on these terms, tennis enforces strict gender segregation, with two totally different competitions for each gender, two separate world rankings, and even different sets of tactics and rule variations. Womens matches are shorter and rely less on the power of ones serve (though the closer to a male-type serve you can achieve, the better you will do). Until 2007, men earned more prize money than women for the same accomplishments. (Women in tennis what the deuce?!, 2010) Physical endurance is a major consideration in tennis. However, it is not the only measure of performance, and overemphasis on it dilutes notions of equality and fairness, irrespective of physicality. Critics of pay equity and feminist ideals about gender equality argue that in fact women do not maintain the idea of equal pay for equal work (Rhoads, 1994). The argument itself shows the subjectivity and bias inherent in the structure of sport, which uses measures based on a male dominated criterion. Criteria such as training regiments, psychological and mental fatigue, or
quality of play, make measurement of duration a less important aspect of the game. The founder of the Womens Sports Foundation, Billie Jean King, makes a similar argument: The length of the competition does not matter; it is the top celebrity athlete at the competition, male or female, who fascinates and draws the viewers and ticket buyer. Male volleyball players use a volleyball net that is higher than the womens volleyball net. Should they get paid more? The nature, length and characteristics of the sporting event are appropriate to male and female athletes and their differences should not justify valuing one over the other. (Womens Sports Foundation, 2011) The discussion surrounding pay equity in sports, including physical determinants for evaluation, reveals the perpetuation of a dominant, male-oriented evaluation of sport that focuses on physical attributes. This discourse effects media representations, nancial considerations and public perceptions of tennis and other sports. Sexploitation and Body Image Body image, marketing, brand awareness and empowerment tend to be connected for female athletes today. Sexualized body images, as part of personal brand recognition, rather than an emphasis on skill and performance, are part of the stereotyping of females in male-dominant sporting culture. The discussion about female athletic images is both current and historical. As Pappano (2012) points out there has been little change in the discussion because the discourse has been too simplistic to adequately account for the nuances: We are stuck, I think, for three reasons: 1) Despite Title IX3 and progress, we are still unsure what the job description female athlete entails; 2) Sports and sex appeal are linked, but that link is more fraught for women; 3) Womens bodies are still not, culturally speaking, their own.
The Australian Sports Commission (ASC), Australias national sporting agency, echoes this sentiment: Women in sport often feel that the only way to get media attention and a focus on womens sports is to emphasise the sexual attributes of females athletes, especially the visibility of their bodies. (Australian Sports Commission, 2011) Todays media has an important role in shaping the public perception of the female athlete. Even with the advances in gender equity since the 1970s, there remains an undercurrent of gender specic discrimination. Huffman et al. claim, Not only are women in sport under-represented by the media, commercially driven agendas often place beauty and sexuality (in particular, heterosexuality) before athletic aptitude (as cited Kentel, 2012, p. 137). Anna Kournikova was once the most photographed woman in sports, primarily because of her physical appearance, as her sole major tennis title was a doubles Grand Slam triumph with Martina Hingis (Kentel, 2012, p. 137). Both men and women professional players are subjected to this style of marketing, as indicated by the numerous news and magazine lists of the Hottest Tennis Players (Maxim, 2009), SI Swimsuit Editions (Sports Illustrated, 2004, 2006) and tennis players included in the Sexiest Men/Women issues of various magazines (FHM.com, 2002). However, the hyper-sexualisation of women as a marketing by-product distorts their athletic accomplishments, like Anna Kournikova, Sharapovas marketability relates largely to her physical appearance rather than to her feats on the court, even though she is far more accomplished than the former (Travers, 2009, p. 85). Physicality and the Ideal Female Athlete Recently, the Womens Tennis Association (WTA) has prescribed changes to its code of conduct to address excessive grunting in the womens game. The reasons given vary, some citing that the noise itself gives players an unfair advantage over their opponent as it disrupts concentration. Earlier this week the Womens Tennis Association outlined their plan to, as WTA chairman Stacey Allaster said, drive excessive grunting out of the game for future generations. That plan includes educating younger players, designing a handheld device to measure the volume of infractions, and establishing
guidelines that more precisely dene whats considered a hindrance to the game. (Bleacher Report, 2012) The discomfort with the issue of grunting is reminiscent of other issues that arose with the advent of the womens power game. Arguably, the Williams sisters most signicant contribution to the womens game was the sheer power of their overall game, from serves clocked at over 130 MPH, to devastating ground strokes that limited opponents ability to respond. As Allen (2012) states, When the Williams sisters emerged on the scene in the late 1990s as teenagers, the womens game changed forever. The serve became more than getting play underway; it became a weaponthe underpinning of the new power game in womens tennis. The Williams sisters were big, powerful, athletic women who eventually dominated womens tennis and changed the game forever (Allen, 2012). In the past decade, facilitated by racquet technology, tness and nutrition, there have been a number of talented female tennis players that have continued the shift in female tennis player: Victoria Azarenka, Maria Sharapova, Caroline Wozniacki, Petra Kvitova and Anna Ivanovic. Women have certainly never hit harder and not just on account of improved equipment. Theyre stronger, bigger, faster, better trained and pushed above all by the example of the Williams sisters. Serena, glorious and musclebound, and Venus, long-limbed and tall, have redened the sport around power. (Kimmelman, 2012) The new physical nature of the womens game acknowledges a shift, where training and conditioning are more essential and consistent across gender lines. Conversely, attitudes towards womens tennis are still subject to a lingering, historical perception of female athletes and what constitutes appropriate behaviour on and off the court. The Importance of Pay Equity and Equality Sport and its supporting infrastructure is an expression of cultural ideals. Emile Durkheim (2008) argued that sports encapsulate symbolically the social natures, relations and identities of the collectivities that generate them. Sport, therefore, is perceived as a form of collective representation that may be invested with great social signicance (as cited in Goodger and
Photo by Edwin Martinez, Flickr cc Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial license.
3. Title IX of the Educational Amendments of 1972 is the landmark legislation that bans sex discrimination in schools, whether it be in academics or athletics. Title IX states: No person in the U.S. shall, on the basis of sex be excluded from participation in, or denied the benets of, or be subjected to discrimination under any educational program or activity receiving federal aid.
26
27
Goodger, 1989). As an extension of popular culture, sports organizations risk perpetuating the social perception of the inferiority of women: The impact of unequal purses goes beyond the issue of money. Sport is too potent a force in society and our media culture to ignore. The implications of unequal pay extend beyond the playing eld. When our sons and daughters watch a national network telecast and see the most celebrated female athletes valued less than their male counterparts, they are learning to believe that it is okay that females are less respected and less rewarded in our society. We are promulgating values for generations to come; we must be sure that the accepted values are acceptable ones. (Billie Jean King, as cited in Womens Sport Foundation, 2011) Examining the tensions that continue to exist between the perception of mens and womens games, irrespective of equal prize money, pinpoints a highly visible, manifestation of the gender equity conversation. It is in this discussion that broader social forms can be identied and perhaps altered. Pappano (2012) makes this point in her discussion of the broader impact on society of female athletes vs. female role models: But seeking real equity for female athletes means learning to appreciate female athletes performances on their own. We may be desperate for role models for daughters and want proper, PR-friendly sunnydispositioned stars. But equality means not making girl-next-door comportment a condition of our support The United Nations, Division for the Advancement of Women, makes this point even more strongly: The potential for sport to contribute to the social, economic and political empowerment of women and girls is clear and has been recognized by Governments, the United Nations system, NGOs and other actors. (United Nations, 2007) The debate concerning gender equity in sport underscores the perpetuation of existing social tensions, within sport and society.
2.4 Race & Representation in Tennis

The phenomenal success of Venus and Serena Williams overshadows the historic reality of racism and exclusion within the cultural fabric of tennis. Traditionally exclusive clubs not only limited membership to those of a particular social standing, but used exclusion criteria based on ethnicity. Entry to clubs, organizations and governing associations was restricted. Although the history of tennis includes other notable women of colour (e.g. Althea Gibson in the 1950s), Serena and Venus Williams have arguably had the most signicant impact on diversity in womens tennis. The Williams sisters have been a dominant presence for the past 15 years, since Venus Williams reached her rst US Open nals in 1997. Tennis had seemingly found its Tiger Woods. Venus Williams, no longer a curiosity or a teen pumped up by hype, emerged as a legitimate claimant to the future of womens tennis. Despite the inspirations of Althea Gibson and Arthur Ashe, few African Americans rose to the upper echelons in professional tennis. No one since Ashe won a Grand Slam event until Serena Williams captured the Womens Singles at the 1999 US Open. (Spencer, 2001, p. 87) The signicance of the Williams sisters based on achievement alone is impressive; together they have won 22 Grand Slam titles (singles), 13 Grand Slams doubles titles, 3 doubles Olympic gold medals, and 1 singles Olympic gold medal (Serena). The nancial importance is also considerable as Venus Williams was the worlds highest paid female athlete until Maria Sharapova surpassed her in 2011. In Canada, sports have been a testing ground for integration, as exemplied by the rst black athletes participating entering professional hockey and baseball via Canadian farm teams. Montreal was the setting for Jackie Robinsons debut as the rst black professional baseball player. Blacks in Canada have had a rich tradition in sport in general, although,
historically, tennis has not assimilated people of colour as readily as other sports such as baseball, basketball and football. Although Canada embraces the policy of multiculturalism, translating that into open and equal access, and representation across socio-economic, cultural and ethnic lines has been challenging: Playing in mainstream leagues or broad-based competition signals for any distinct group its integration into the larger society. For groups like First Nations, Chinese, Japanese and Blacks, however, this path to integration has been more problematic. Over the years Canadians smugly asserted their own countrys tolerant culture in race relations but, as this story of Black participation in sports demonstrates, the record is far more troubling. Canadas record in matters of race has been a disturbing mixture of occasional good intentions and ugly practices. (Humber, 2004, p. 15) The fact that Canada has been seen as promoting tolerance and equity hides incidences of blatant ethnic discrimination, from the residential schools that devastated First Nations communities, to the removal of Africaville in Nova Scotia. In sports it has included omissions such as allowing the history of Canadas black hockey league from the 1920s to fall
into obscurity. Ethnicity in Canada and its relationship to sport reects both a societal desire to embrace new cultural inuences and to incorporate them into our national identity, but also the inequity of representation within sports. Immigration and Multiculturalism The Canadian sporting landscape has been shaped by Canadian immigration policy, in particular, in the 1970s and 1980s, when multiculturalism was synonymous with the notion of national cultural identity. The legacy of immigration has seen sporting superstars become national heroes, including both rst generation Canadians such as Donovan Bailey (sprinter), Lennox Lewis (boxing), and second generation Canadians such as Paul Kariya (hockey), Jerome Iginla (hockey), and Patrick Chan (ice skating). Immigration has also shaped Canadian tennis, with rst generation Canadians such as Daniel Nestor and Milos Raonic, and second generation Canadian Aleksandra Wozniak. Immigration is a necessity in Canada for a number of reasons, such as falling population growth rates, and declining birth rates. The commitment to immigration reinforces our societys diversity in ethnicity and country of origin. The result is a shift in Canadian cultural identity; however, our full ethnic diversity
Photo by Rob Bogaerts, National Archief Fotocollectie Anefo, WikiCommons cc Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial license.
28
29
remains under-represented in many sports. Lack of representation reduces the likelihood of an individual identifying with a particular sport and in turn, impairs the motivation to participate.
2.5 Persistence of Socio-Cultural Themes

Exploring the historical context, cultural organization, socio-economic structures, and political administration of tennis provides the foresight analysis with a wider dataset for detecting trends, drivers and barriers that persist and limit growth in Canadian tennis. Analyzing the nationwide formation and organization of tennis helps to identify the role and impact that Tennis Canada, as an example of a modern sports institution, has on the growth of the sport. Sports organizations, which are based on the socio-economic class-based structures of the 1900s, have had a lasting legacy and inuence on who has access to the programs and the agency to affect change. Economic class structure, and race and gender biases are persistent in society today, and their continued
existence hampers efforts to provide fair and equitable access to tennis. To increase the participation base in Canada, barriers established by these mega-drivers must be addressed. Canadian cultural tolerance is a foundational premise for our society and a source of national pride; it nurtures a society based on multiculturalism. Yet the historical legacy of exclusion in tennis continues to be evident in the entry criteria for certain tennis clubs. The social system of Canadian tennis is complex and connected to larger systems that lie outside the scope of this research. Simplifying the system dynamics makes it easier to analyze the structures and determine their impact on sports. For example, in Canada, national sporting policy is inuenced by the interaction between national and international committees such as the International Olympic Committee (IOC); these interactions shape the organization, policies, regulations and enforcement of standards that regulate participation, especially at the professional level. Investigation into the interrelations of national and international organizations is beyond the scope of this research, but it is necessary to acknowledge that external inuences are potential areas for further research.
Figure 4 Persistence over time of socio-cultural themes, (Adapted from Source: Curry & Hodgson, 2008)
horizon 1
horizon 2
horizon 3
historic origin socio-cultural themes

(class, race, gender)
30
31
3 Business Case Study: Tennis Canada

The complex interrelation of sport, society and commerce bounds the system in which tennis operates. A business case study provides understanding of Tennis Canadas operations and their affect on tennis in Canada. The business case also contributes to the analysis of factors that may affect Tennis Canadas ability to meet a preferred future.
Photo by r.nial.bradshaw (Flickr), available under
cc
32
33
Tennis Canada is the national association governing the sport of tennis in Canada. Like many nonprot organizations, it needs a diverse mandate to attain the funding required to achieve its business objectives and to maintain operations. Growth in Canadian tennis is both a business aim and a cultural focus for the organization. Specically, we are committed to the development and growth of our game by stimulating participation and excellence in tennis. Put another way, we want more people to play This case study observes the present conditions, including the tensions and underlying system dynamics and those currently playing to get more out of the game and themselves (Tennis Canada, 2012b). that govern possible changes. Tennis Canada has a
Social systems are complex structures made up of many sub-systems, each with their own behaviours, relationships and attributes. When analyzing a complex system, it can be helpful to adopt the perspective of a principal actor within the system; this provides a context and a perspective on how the system operates and allows the various interactions to be related to a single focal point. This study uses Tennis Canada, tennis national governing body, to identify the dynamics and relationship possibilities within the system of tennis in Canada. Tennis Canadas commercial activities generate the revenue necessary to maintain its operations, and its community outreach programs promote tennis and encourage player development. Therefore, Tennis Canada is related to most of the internal and external conditions affecting the future of Canadian tennis.
great deal of inuence within its immediate system. However, social systems do not act in isolation; they are affected by their proximity to adjacent external systems and by internal sub-systems, such as coaching certication programs or player development. For example, sport funding is used internally to support ongoing player development and community outreach, while federal policy dictates resource allotment to national sporting agencies as a function of the federal budget.
Establishing tennis as one of Canadas top sports, one that is representative of Canadas national character, is a part of Tennis Canadas mission. To achieve this goal requires an orchestrated effort with multiple external stakeholders. Participation in many organized sports has been in decline over the past 30 years with a marked decrease in participation rates between 1998 and 2005. Recent trends such as increased childhood obesity in Canadian youth may be related to the fact that participation in sport overall has declined. This decrease has been observed in many sports, even in hockey, Canadas national sport: Enrolment in Hockey Canada teams is currently 572,000 players, down more than 200,000 from its peak. And the prospects are grim. In the next decade, some say there could be 200,000 fewer kids playing the game. (Therien, 2012) Tennis in Canada recently surpassed 5 million active participants (Tennis Canada, 2013). However, the increase is arguably related to population increases; the provinces that are experiencing the greatest
increases in participation are the ones in which interprovincial migration tends to be higher. Recognizing Tennis Canadas strategy and objectives helps to identify the forces that underlie its organizational and nancial structure. This is an important step in the application of the Three Horizon model. The description of the current state denes the Second Horizon, which is characterized by a mix of constraints emanating from the legacy system and elements of change that are the pathways to the preferred state.
Figure 5 - Active participation rates in the top ten sports in Canada, 1998 and 2005 (Source: Statistics Canada, 2011a)
Tennis Cycling Downhill/alpine skiing Volleyball Baseball Basketball Soccer Swimming Ice Hockey Golf 0 1998
34
Figure 6 Transition between an existing state and a preferred future (Horizon 2) (Adapted from Source: Curry & Hodgson, 2008)
horizon 1
horizon 2
horizon 3
10 15 participation rate (percentage) 2005
20
25
35
3.1 Background
1990s, Tennis Canadas main priority was establishing and promoting competitive and high performance Tennis Canadas character and operations are athletes. Supporting Canadian professional inuenced by its own historical legacy and by the tennis players that were visible to the public and legacy of tennis. Tennis Canada was established internationally successful was a key business model. as a national administrative body in 1890, with a More recently, commitment to community development mandate to promote tennis across Canada. In 1924, the and grassroots participation has balanced these older International Lawn and Tennis Federation, later known strategic objectives; the new aim is to establish as the International Tennis Federation (ITF), codied success at elite levels by ensuring popular appeal and rules and regulations and created consistent guidelines proper skill development. for competition in international tennis. The national Revenue and Finances tennis federations afliated with the ITF enforced Tennis Canadas nancial situation is different than these rules and regulations at the national level in that of other Canadian sports agencies. As owners order to establish consistency for international play: and operators of The Rogers Cup (ATP Masters 1000, The ITF administers and regulates the game through WTA Premiere, formerly the Canadian Open), Tennis over 200 afliated National Associations, together Canada receives the majority of its revenue from a with six Regional Associations. The ITF is responsible single source. Approximately 90% of Tennis Canadas for the Rules of Tennis, including the technical revenue is derived from commercial activities specications for courts and equipment, and associated with The Rogers Cup. This revenue supports the running and enforcing of a joint anti-doping internal operations and funds community and player programme (ITF, 2013). development. The Rogers Cup allows a funding model that is unique within national associations in Canada, The global administration and governance of tennis is allowing Tennis Canada to remain almost entirely a hierarchical structure, with national bodies working independent of traditional funding streams. For most in concert with the ITF and professional tours and other national associations, funding supplied through tournaments to determine the nature of competitive Sport Canada represents a much higher percentage of and professional play. From the 1960s through the their operating budgets.
3.2 Business Initiatives
Table 1 - Comparison of Funding Sources, Tennis Canada and Hockey Canada (Sources: Tennis Canada, 2012c & Hockey Canada, 2012)
Tennis Canada Funding Sources Canadian Open Events Tennis Development Other Tournaments Rexall Centre Sport Canada Support Services Tennis Matters Foreign Exchange Gains on Contracts 86% 1% < 1% 5% 2% < 1% 5% < 1% Hockey Canada Funding Sources Sponsors Events Branch Assessments Goods and Services Physical Activity and Sport Act Funding Agencies Fundraising Interest and Other Sources 27% 24% 8% 10% 12% 5% 7% 7%
development. In the past, the development of elite athletes has tended to be competition heavy, focusing on training Tennis Canada has numerous business activities that to prepare players for tournaments, with reduced promote tennis in Canada. The following section emphasis on skills development. Tennis Canadas Longdescribes several initiatives in order to illustrate term Athlete Development Program (LTAD) is a program the operations and the constraints typical of the designed to balance competition-focused training, organization. Analyzing these activities in relation to which focuses on short-term success, with life-time new trends will provide insight into the barriers that player development (Tennis Canada, 2008). The program are preventing the fulllment of Tennis Canadas stated is suitable for all levels of players, and is designed mission and vision. to promote participation and involvement in the sport. Player development is grounded in research on High Performance Tennis age appropriate development. It is not a professional High performance tennis is an important business driver training program, but an effective sporting system for Tennis Canada. Ensuring success at international that will lead to success at all levels, as indicated by competitions, particularly in professional tours (ATP, Balyi, The health and well-being of the nation and WTA) is a mechanism that allows the organization to the medals won at major games are simple by-products benet nancially through audience growth. High of an effective sport system (cited by Tennis Canada, performance tennis incorporates player development 2008, p. 19). and competition at the highest level including professional tours, and The Davis Cup and Fed Cup The development of skills, mental acuity and maturity events. Recently, Canadian professional tennis has been in competition are important characteristics of boosted by the accomplishments of Milos Raonic, Daniel competitive and successful players. A lack of maturity Nestor and Aleksandra Wozniak. The recent successes of can be a concern for young players, as overexposure junior players (Carol Zhao, Eugenie Bouchard and Filip may lead to burnout. Tennis Canadas player Peliwo), who have been winning the junior equivalents development strategy is structured to enable players, of Grand Slams, demonstrates the expertise of the through skill development and competition, to achieve new generation of tennis players and their potential the best results. It balances competitive playing and to compete at the highest levels of international skills development, as well as mental and physical competition. conditioning (Tennis Canada, 2008). The success of Canadian players at the highest levels increases the popularity of the sport and this leads to media coverage and audience growth. This generates revenue for Tennis Canada through increased spectator attendance and commercial activities related to The Rogers Cup. There is no absolute, direct correspondence between the success of professional players and increased participation in the sport, as other factors are involved (Hinds, 2009). Nevertheless, higher participation levels are observed when media attention and overall public exposure is strengthened (Dawson & Downward, 2009, p. 3) Player Development Player development is a cornerstone of Tennis Canadas strategy to develop competitive and elite level athletes able to compete on the international stage. Player development requires considerable investment, both in facilities and programs, and a comprehensive agenda that balances skill development and competition Child and Youth Development Progressive tennis is a youth-centred program developed by ITF to encourage young people to participate in tennis. One limitation for this group is that children do not possess the physical capabilities to play on full-sized tennis courts, and may have difculty with the size and weight of equipment designed for adults. In response, the ITFs Progressive Tennis program provides a graduated system that not only reduces the size of courts and the height of the net, but also species the weight and size of racquets and balls for children. They have a range of tennis balls starting with balls that are softer and easier to hit, progressing through to normal size balls and racquets. In addition, the advent of moveable nets allows for play in non-traditional tennis locations, such as driveways, gyms and community centres. Tennis Canada, along with provincial tennis associations
36
37
Coordination with Provinces Growth in participation and player development Coaching and Certication depends on the coordinated efforts of Tennis Canada Coaching is a fundamental part of tennis. Coaches and a variety of other stakeholders. Strategic infuse young players with a passion for playing the partnerships with provincial tennis associations and sport, and foster an appreciation for the physical community tennis facilities are additional areas for nature of running and hitting a ball. As most people development. For example, at the provincial level, are introduced to the sport through their primary the Ontario Tennis Association uses a structured social circle, coaches also have a role in managing architecture to manage junior player development: expectations and providing appropriate information the Junior Development Pyramid (Ontario Tennis about both the demands of competition and the social Association, 2010, p. 16). The pyramid provides an benets of participating in the sport. At the higher integrated foundation for both competitive and highlevels of competition, as developing greater technical performance streams, allowing all players to achieve skills becomes more important, access to a variety results (See Appendix C). There are uid boundaries of coaching and training styles may be warranted between the streams and players may shift back and as different players respond to different types of forth between competition and non-competitive motivation and style. development, based on changes in players capabilities and/or interests. The goal is to provide integrated I would like to see the coaching [in Canada] improve levels of competition that help player development I dont think our coaching in tennis is comparable consistently across the provinces and to develop a to that of other sports like hockey I think we system that can not only identify potential talent, but understand that coaching is very important. Tennis provide appropriate opportunities to participate in Canada is doing their best to make sure our coaching reaches the level of other countries, [such as Spain]. The the national training program. The national training Spanish tennis federation has great coaching that is why program prepares players for international and professional play. they have great players. (Michael Emmett, Director of Tennis Mayfair Clubs, personal interview, 2012)
Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial license. Photo by Billy Nata , Flickr
cc
and tennis clubs, has adopted progressive tennis techniques into their development programs, providing new opportunities for children to be introduced to the sport and diversifying the locations where tennis can be played (Tennis Canada, 2010, p. 3). Progressive tennis programs and the technology that support them, has made it possible for Tennis Canada to form partnerships with school boards to introduce tennis into school physical education programs.
Tennis Canada and the Canadian Coaching Association provide coaching certication and regulation for the professionals that provide training and coaching for players at all levels. Tennis Canadas national coaching system uses experts from around the world, so that a variety of styles are available to guide competitive players as their careers progress.
Facility Construction An important consideration for growing tennis in Canada is providing adequate facilities for seasonal and year-round community participation. Increasing year-round facilities in communities across Canada has been a mission for Tennis Canada. Partnering with both public and private ventures to construct indoor facilities is a vital part of Tennis Canadas overall strategic plan to grow the sport of tennis by giving more people the opportunity to play tennis year round. Grassroots Participation in Tennis In the 1990s, there was a marked decline in the publics interest in tennis, partly due to the speed at which players could serve and hit the ball. Points were fast and short (relatively few rallies), and audiences became dissatised, citing the length of actual play as a primary factor in their disinterest. Tennis became boring to watch, dominated by a powerful serve and a quick nish to the point. In 1994, Sports Illustrateds cover article story, Is Tennis Dying outlined these changes and the approaches necessary to save the sport from audience apathy. As Jenkins (1994) articulated, On those rare occasions when a player with a recognizable name takes the court, nothing happens. If you want action, go to a basketball game. In the average mens hard-court match the ball is in play less than nine minutes per hour, and on grass its less than four minutes.
As Daniel Nestor notes, the nature of the game changed in the 1990s, altering the dominant style of play and the demands on the athlete: [In the 1990s] balls were lighter and harder in those days and I would say there was a good mix of serve and volleyers and baseliners in 70s and 80s when tennis was peaking popularity wise and then in the 90s it started leaning towards too many net rushers as the racquets became more and more powerful and there was no adjustments to the courts or balls so the game was getting too fast and the rallies were too short and popularity started to suffer. Obviously changes were made but the sport needs to be careful that it doesnt swing too much the other way and become too repetitive from the baseline. (Daniel Nestor, personal interview, 2012) There was a marked decline in participation rates between 1998 and 2005 from the height of participation in the 1990s (Statistics Canada, 2011a). Although participation has recently been gaining momentum, growth in the number of people playing tennis seems to be linked to population growth. Professional tours and the ITF have altered the rules and regulations, reducing the speed of the game, by introducing slower courts and heavier balls. This has helped to win back audiences, and renewed interest in the game, and is also a contributing factor to the increasing participation in the sport.
Table 2 Canadian tennis participation, 20082012 (Source: Tennis Canada, 2013 & Statistics Canada, 2012)
Year 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Participation 4,030,000 4,490,000 4,755,000 4,900,000 5,055,000 Percentage Change N/A 10.2 5.6 3.0 3.0 Population 33,317,700 33,726,900 34,126,500 34,484,000 34,880,500 Percentage Change 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.0 1.1
38
39
Community Development The tennis community in Canada is an essential element in the overall development of the sport. Community development and advocacy leads to increased participation, fan support and enriched fan engagement with professional players. Tennis Canadas Mission Statement for Community Tennis is to lead and develop the sustainable growth of tennis by building a system accessible to all Canadians. We know that if tennis is well supported at the community level, our sport is healthy and growing. (Tennis Canada, 2012) The tennis community has a number of critical functions, including developing a market for tennis merchandise, supporting connections within the community and a cultural connection via sporting events. Tennis Canada promotes community development with programs that encourage involvement by establishing a variety of points-ofentry into the sport. These programs are designed to increase exposure for kids and to provide access to tennis equipment and facilities. To build community involvement in tennis (and sport in general) it is necessary to focus on ingress, retention and growth. The nature of the ingress to a sport reects the characteristics of the sports community. The things that motivate individuals and groups to participate in a particular sport may be common, shared values, such as tness, cooperation or social connections. Additionally, a community structure, logistically and culturally, may promote an individuals connection with a sport. How do you affect change, make more people smile, [make] more people like the sport how do we make this sport great, lets get some kids from Saskatoon, lets get some kids form Prince Edward Island, lets make this a national sport. (Pierre Lamarche, personal interview, 2012) Participation in the sport may be based on simple motivations, such as fun, positive reinforcement, group dynamics and friendship. Retaining peoples connection to a sport requires sensitivity to changes in motivations. As a player improves, there may have a tendency to seek out additional networks, including joining associations, employing tennis professionals 40
and participating in competitive programs and tournament events. Communities can play an important role in this development; as needs change, the programs and offerings available must change to meet those needs. There is a growing trend for sponsors to align themselves with communities; corporations fund community-based events as part of their commitment to social responsibility and public wellbeing. As Rogers Communications says, From providing a dynamic, healthy and rewarding workplace, to demonstrating environmental stewardship, to supporting universal human rights, corporate social responsibility (CSR) is an ongoing journey at Rogers (Rogers, 2012). Supporting tennis at the community level helps to expand the reach of brands into communities, providing benets for both the community and the sponsor. Tennis Canadas Little Aces Integrated Community Development Little Aces is an example of an integrated community approach that promotes tennis in major markets. The program, focused on children under 12 years of age, integrates participation and community development at various levels, through community leaders, partners and schools. The aim is to identify key individuals with a passion for tennis and to make them community leaders, and to then provide structured development and training within these communities. Together these approaches can create excitement about the game, and take advantage of that excitement by provide a structured path, involving skills, fun and access. The Little Aces strategy integrates participation and athletic development in a community setting. There are multiple levels of partnership, from private and semi-private tennis clubs, to school-based and public or community sponsored facilities, as well as comprehensive, structured programs and activities to expose, grow and maintain participation and interest in a single community. Initiatives that are highly localized allow tennis activities to remain close to home and schools, reducing the need for expensive travel and limiting the time commitment required of parents and other caregivers. The Little Aces program exhibits Tennis Canadas commitment to the growth of tennis-centric
communities that are led by passionate individuals, who have adequate resources for technical skill development. The goal of the Building Tennis Communities (BTC) Strategy is to bring more people into the game of tennis and to keep them playing for life -- facilitating growth and sustainability. The approach is based on the philosophy that tennis has a role to play in community development and thus, if seen by community leaders as a valuable asset to the community, will be supported accordingly. (Tennis Canada, Little Aces, 2006) Moreover, developing programs around a community hub facilitates an individuals progression within the sport and grounds passion, fun and excitement in appropriate skills development, while providing access to suitable competitive channels.
Sponsorship and Philanthropy The interplay between governing institutions, media and commercial activities has altered how athletes position themselves as competitors and commodities. Sports professionals have become integral to the game, and are dependent on the industry for their nancial livelihood. The audiences view of athletes and competitions has also changed, and notions of entertainment, spectacle and religion are woven into the fabric of sports. Active sponsorship brands sporting events, teams and players, and even the audience. Sporting events commonly include sponsors and the revenue generated constitutes a considerable part of operational budgets. New media offer new opportunities for sponsorship and global context will become increasingly signicant; although traditional media sources may be declining in prominence, other new possibilities for international sponsorship may emerge. Where I think well be able to branch more into things down the road is as you get into digital signage and geoblocking and those types of things like that, if youre sitting in Spain and you know we know how much Spain loves Nadal and the Spanish players because theyve got lots of them that do well, is youre sitting there and youre watching Toronto and youre thinking Rogers, that means nothing unless you come to Canada how bout in France we could use BNP on the back wall and Australia could be you know if they allow a Fosters Beer, whatever it is that those brands that are there. (Derek Strang, personal interview, 2012) Additionally, philanthropic donations provide a personal relationship and connection to sporting programs, while generating revenue for the organization. For Tennis Canada, philanthropic donations make up approximately 5% of the total revenue. The resulting relationships between donors, players and the organization foster a sense of passion and community and ensure that donors remain involved over the long-term. Commercial Activities Fund Player Development Sport is big business and its nancial underpinnings have existed for centuries. Modern sport is a commercial venture worth billions and billions of dollars. In the past sport may have possessed a degree of autonomy from
3.3 Key Factors in the Business Model

Tennis Canadas strategic initiatives identify a number of key factors that shape the organizations current operations, level of services and long-term development plans.
cc Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial license. Photo by y.caradec, Flickr
41
prot-driven regimes, but this separation no longer exists: If mist-eyed nostalgia exaggerates the extent of this long lost independence, then the sport industrys gross annual revenues of some $324 billion worldwide nearly half of which is generated in the United States alone make it inconceivable to think of sport as anything but an important arm of global capitalist order. (Andrews, 2004) Tennis Canada faces the challenge of balancing commercial interests with encouraging participation and player development at all levels. Tennis Canadas ownership of The Rogers Cup provides the organization with more revenues than corresponding organisations in other sports. However, too much emphasis on professional player success may result in too little attention to grassroots participation. In short, professional success and grassroots growth need to both be recognised as business objectives.
The areas of elite and community sport are strongly related and the link needs to be reected at the policy and strategic level. There is an obvious link between the size of the participation base and the ow of talented athletes to the elite end. Elite sports are now recognising that building and owning their grassroots participation structures is an avenue to securing new revenue streams and elite success. (Crawford Report, 2009, p. 14) The relationship between a large base and success at the elite levels is reciprocal; consistent elite success is contingent on the existence of broad based community participation. Institutional Character The social, economic and cultural forms of a sport reect the institutions that surround it, and their commercial structures. As Andrews (2004) notes, sport and commercial interests have always been connected:
Federal / Provincial Support To operate efciently, the programs initiated by Tennis Canada require support from key stakeholders. Provincial tennis associations are important strategic partners in Canada, establishing connections between communities, clubs and other national agencies. The relationship between provincial tennis associations and provincial governments determines the availability of funding. The Ontario Tennis Associations nances are a mix of government grants, membership dues (club and player), training and certication revenues, as well as sponsor, donor and additional sources of revenue (Ontario Tennis Association, 2009). The operating budgets for Ontario, Quebec, Alberta and British Columbia are larger than those of the other provinces and territories. The revenue potential of membership fees creates an incentive to grow and encourages provincial afliations. Therefore, aligning provincial business objectives with the national agenda of Tennis Canada is an important part of managing change at a systemic level. For example, Tennis Canadas programs to promote tennis must be integrated with provincial funding and programs, to eliminate redundancy and the chance of competing tennis bodies. Provincial tennis associations in Canada operate at the community and local level, thus diminishing the role of the national organization at the grassroots level. In contrast, the United States Tennis Association (USTA) employs a membership structure organized at the national level, where ranking and tournaments run under the USTA umbrella rather than at a state (or provincial) level. Community Support and the Club System The tennis community is another key stakeholder in Canadian tennis. Participation is keenly inuenced by primary relationships, including family, friends, schools and local community. An understanding of community dynamics, and sensitivity to cultural arrangements (including mobility), may improve the effectiveness of participatory programs. Perception and social approval are driven in part by community interests. Aligning the sport with the interests of different communities may encourage the adoption of tennis in communities where it has not traditionally been popular. Community tennis is interconnected with the club system in Canada, which includes public, semi-private
and private tennis facilities. Membership in these clubs is dependent on varying levels of nancial resources, but the cost is often prohibitive. The club system maintains indoor facilities, as the Canadian climate limits year-round play, and provides access to courts, programs and tennis coaching. Media, Audience and Commercial Activities The audiences view of athletes and competitions has changed, and sports now contain elements of entertainment, spectacle and religion. In Montreal, The Rogers Cup manages to nd a balance between being a sporting event and being an entertainment spectacle, attracting an audience that is unlike other sporting events. As Eugne Lapierre commented: Montreal has all those international events, the Jazz Festival, Just for Laughs, Grand Prix Formula One, and we raised the [Rogers Cup] tournament to the same level of international uniqueness we also brought in local artists and hockey players accessible stars to show our local public that everyone likes our event. Now it is an attraction, a show, like theatre, it is more like the symphony orchestra, much more than like hockey or football. (Eugne Lapierre, personal interview, 2012) Tennis Canada has also made tournament events accessible, allowing the public to view tennis at the highest competitive level at minimal cost: Since we built the stadium, it changed everything we [have] made it very accessible, I dont want to hear from any Montrealer that it is too expensive. Everybody can come and watch because the rst three days are free and there are very affordable seats for the rest of the week. (Eugene Lapiere, personal interview, 2012) Creating a system in which people can come to watch the worlds top players for free, shows Tennis Canadas commitment to provide the public with open access, to attract a new audience and to create passionate connections through rst person experiences, including access to The Rogers Cup at no cost. Tennis Canada manages to balance its commitment to providing access with its revenue generating commercial activities. Ensuring audience growth helps to maintain current levels of funding, which in turn builds programs across Canada.
By codifying sporting practice (regulated participation) and sanctioning cathartic release (mass spectatorship), Success in the Sport Growth Model the patrician-industrial power bloc ensured that sport Audience growth and increasing participation are key helped to constrain working bodies to the demands business objectives for Tennis Canada; they ensure consistent revenue, fund support services and maintain and disciple of the industrial workplace, while program development. Success, particularly of Canadian simultaneously contributing to the commercialism of urban leisure culture. (p. 3) professional players, is a key part of the model, as identication with Canadian players and their success Many institutions derive their character and structure increases audience support. Childrens identication with sporting heroes may help to spur participation. A from the dominant economic system. Therefore, be like my hero attitude creates a sense of possibility their structure may resist changes in the prevailing system. Change requires knowledge of how a system because another Canadian has done it already: is organized, what barriers and friction exists within its structure, and how those factors may limit the [I mean] lets face it, the best thing that could have possibility for change. In tennis, nancial concerns, happened to Canadian tennis is happening now with professional services, and media demands may exert Milos [Raonic]. Hes putting tennis on the map Every pressures to maintain the status quo, or to change in time hes playing a match hes on TV which is what we a particular direction. need and thats the most important thing to inspire kids and to have kids more involved in tennis is to have it on Systemic change aligned with the public wellbeing television, Canadians on television. [There was] Borg in has the potential to overcome the negative effects Sweden, Becker in Germany, [and] all of a sudden theres a boom and kids are playing tennis instead of soccer and of the socio-cultural themes discussed in the previous section, including historical perceptions of the game. ice hockey. (Daniel Nestor, personal interview, 2012) A healthy organizational culture can respond to new opportunities and create conditions that lead to Research also shows a positive correlation between professional or international sporting success (e.g. the preferred outcomes. Olympics) and participation. Additional factors such as media coverage, public perception and changing social values also create shifts in participation levels. 42
43
4 Future Looking: Scanning, Trends & Drivers

Strategic foresight provides methods to help classify and understand tensions, their behaviours and impact on larger social systems. One such method is a horizon scan, which classifies signals and trends into categories: social, technological, economic, ecologic, political, and values.
Photo by cdsessums (Flickr), available under
cc
44
45
The research study used three of the six categories within its analysis of trends to better understand the continued impacts of their behaviours. Additionally, examining the persistence of mega-drivers provides further information about system dynamics and formation of structures found in present day. For example, indoor facilities are largely independent clubs that use exclusive membership as a way to ensure revenue. The club systems origins are an extension of a class-based structure, which limited access based on nancial resources. The presence of private and semi-private tennis clubs today continues to inuence the Canadian tennis system. By examining a systems legacy, aspects relevant to changing its structure can be appreciated. Why Horizon Scanning? There are important differences between an environment scan and a horizon scan. Typically, an environment scan deals with scanning, analyzing
and interpreting elements and factors that inhabit a predened space. Although an environment scan may include external factors, there is a tendency to look at preexisting relationships that govern known behaviors and relationships within a predened system (Elenkov, 1997). By contrast, a horizon scan, particularly within strategic foresight, is designed to broaden the viewpoint of analysis, looking at potential factors that are not currently included within the dened boundaries of analysis (Horizon Scanning Centre, 2012). Looking at weak signals, which may indicate impacts to present conditions, allows for divergent investigation, moving beyond the normal. Horizon scanning is concerned with emergence, determining parameters as they surface in the process, while still providing discipline and rigor through a structured methodology for research. Trends and Change Drivers Identication of trends and change drivers (or simply, drivers) progresses the analysis beyond horizon scanning taking its results to identify representative
cc Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial license. Photo by orangetaki, Flickr
trends. Signals may indicate possible change, yet may not be signicant on their own. A collection of like signals may constitute a trend. As Adam Gordon (2009) articulates, A trend is a sequential pattern of change in recorded data a change evidenced by a rise or fall of variables when measured between at least two points over time. (p.133). A measureable relationship over a discrete period of time identies a trend as something that isnt persistent, and therefore, does not constitute a foundational change. The forces of change behind a trend, commonly called change drivers are what underpin trends and make that what they are (Gordon, 2009, p. 141). Trends have a limited life expectancy, whereas their underlying change drivers comprise a longer-term perpetuation of events, behaviours, conditions or activities. It is through these drivers that signicant change may occur. Friction and barriers (or blockers) may impede the progress or rate at which change can be brought about within the system (Gordon, 2009, p. 142), acting against trends and drivers.
Figure 7 Horizon 2 (Transitional State) (Adapted from Source: Curry & Hodgson, 2008)
horizon 1
horizon 2
evidence of change
horizon 3
(indicators, signals) (friction, barriers)
limiting factors
leading to preferred future
reinforcing legacy system

cc Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial license. Photo by Richard Norman
46
47
4.1 Trends
A key benet of using strategic foresight is identifying trends and how their inuence may bring about change. The following section of the research study identies nine trends categorized by their relationships, effects, and impacts within the larger social system for tennis. The categories are business model, technology, and social wellbeing, corresponding to designations from the horizon scan, economy, technology, and society. The format for each trend identies signals and indications that the trend is occurring. Impacts are also identied and in some cases barriers and friction are stated, however, not all trends have signicant barriers or friction acting upon them.
4.1.1 Business Unusual

The economic crisis of 2008 raised concerns about the fragility of the global economy, ushering a new era of nancial uncertainty. The results remain unresolved, where once dominant national economies struggle to remain competitive internationally. Continued recessions in the European Union, pressure from emerging markets, and uctuating consumer condence indicate the enduring nature of the crisis and reconguration of global economics. As a result, nancial decisions continue to reect a high degree of uncertainty. In North America, the US economy still has yet to rebound from a major recession, and although Canada did not experience such a dramatic downturn, sustained slow economic growth represents a new nancial reality. Economic uncertainty inuences nancial planning and necessitating contingencies to mitigate risks, previously unimaginable. Other factors are impacting the situation, including new middle-class in China, Brazil, and India, which increases demand for consumer goods and services driving their strong economic performance. Signals European Economic Crisis The economic crisis in Europe continues to persist. The fragile balance within the European Union emphasizes growing disparities between have and have-not countries. Ongoing economic difculties in Greece, and increasing inequalities, high unemployment, and political disruptions in other nations, such as Spain and Italy, further accentuate tensions within the EU.
Indicators EU recession continues; growing fear that there
surpass established national economies (Farzad, 2010).

Indicators Emerging Markets are new focus for investment
worldwide. North American prosperity now linked to investment in emerging markets. Slow rates of growth in North America. Higher economic growth in Next 11, economic engine shifting. Rise of a New Middle Class Middle-class consumer spending is a signicant contributor to domestic economies. The decline of middle-class purchasing power in North America is a contributing factor to the instability of North American economies (Lewenza, 2011). In contrast, the signicant increase in middle-class incomes in China and Brazil creates a need for goods and services not experiences in past decades.
Indicators Middle class growth in China and Brazil creates
cc Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial license. Photo by jozerC, Flickr
Table 3 Categorized Trends
Business Model
Trends Trends
Technology
Trends
Social Wellbeing
Business Unusual Whos Funding Whom? From East to West
Build Me a Player My Custom Morning Jacket Big Data, Big Role
Social-Digi-Net Inuence Wheres the Middle Gone? Rise of the Elder Class
immense consumer spending power. In Brazil, 52% of total population now considered middle class. Growth of South African and Indian middle class provides economic advantage for their respective national economies, creating increased demand for consumer products. Media Trends | Revenue and Consumption Patterns Television broadcast revenue still continues to dominate media nances, yet there are growing signs that this is under threat and may be replaced in the coming decades, where shifts to web-based and independent delivery is more common (Houpt, 2012). New competition to existing media conglomerates, customized, personal, and on-demand consumption are becoming the new norm. Demographics play a major role in the shift, as youth seek alternative forms of media broadcast, over traditional television.
Indicators Media trends and consumer tendencies associated
Additional indicators for each trend provided in Appendix B.
will be a triple dip recession in UK. Additional countries at risk of economic collapse and on-going crisis in Greece European Union in political disarray. BRIC and Emerging Economies In addition to Brazil, Russia, India and Chinas (BRIC) continued economic importance, a number of other emerging economies indicate a shift in the global nancial picture. Sometimes referred to as the Next 11, economies such as Mexico, South Africa, Turkey, and Indonesia show continued economic growth, which may
with media access creates uncertainty for viewership, revenue and long-term viability of media sources. Youth tendencies are moving away from traditional media forms (newspaper, television) towards ondemand web based access points.
cc
Photo by PhotographYeah!, Flickr Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial license.
48
49
growth risk from internal domestic strife. Impacts Changes in Consumer Spending Power Indicators Middle class growth continues in countries with strong Russia facing growing unrest, potential threats economic performance (Brazil, Indonesia, Turkey, to security for major events, such as 2014 Winter China, and Mexico) and increases demand for goods Olympics in Sochi. Increase scrutiny internationally and services, including entertainment. The additional based on growing evidence of human rights abuses. pressure on tournaments to maintain their presence in China potential exposure to international current locations deepens as middle class demand grows cyber espionage, creating unease within global for luxury goods and services. Brazil hosting the World community. China also source of cyber threats, Cup (Soccer) in 2014 is one such example. For tennis, as potential launched by government agencies. demand intensies, there is pressure to establish tennis tournaments in emerging markets. Such pressure may shift BRIC | Corruption in Russia, China, India, tournament events away from North America and Europe South Africa to satisfy new markets, while existing tournaments, such Calls of corruption in BRIC nations and emerging as Dubai Open (ATP Masters 500, WTA Premiere Event), vie economies may jeopardize a nations appeal to host for increased prestige. internationally sanctioned sporting events (i.e. Olympics, World Cup, ITF tournaments). Domestic Resources to Manage Increased Risk Potential anger and increasing social unrest may be determining An uncertain economic future presents difculties for factors in maintaining existing sporting events (such nancial planning requiring contingencies to avert risk. as ATP Masters 1000, WTA Premiere tournaments in Such contingencies may require increased allocation of China and Russia), as other equally lucrative and resources (nancial, stafng) even though the issues more stable nations also vie for tournaments and may appear out of scope. The severity of impact on international recognition. businesses ignoring the risks may jeopardize their Indicators long-term viability. Once stable economies (North Charges of corruption, nepotism and involvement America and Europe) are under pressure to remain of organized crime in Russia may deter investment relevant, which may change patterns of consumer and growth long-term. condence and consumption habits. Uncertainty about South African stability and ongoing calls of corruption hamper investment and Revenue shifts from Media cast shadow on recent economic growth. Changes to traditional forms of media consumption impacts broadcast revenues associated with primarily television. As a new generation of sports consumers emerges, traditional forms of media, in particular television may experience decline, in turn affecting lucrative contracts with sporting associations, cascading through to support for existing programs. Barriers and Friction Security Threats Security concerns in China and Russia run counter to their powerful economies, where political unrest, regional disparities and potential human rights violations creates conditions ripe for security breeches. Potential domestic terrorism and increased political repression are concerns as Russia prepares for the 2014 Olympic Winter Games. The ability to host incident-free, major sporting events may determine whether or not International sporting federations continue to support a country or do they retract invitations based on 50
cc
4.1.2 Whos Funding Whom?
Image by GDS Infographics, Flickr Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial license.
western nations, such as The United Kingdom and United States (Gibson, 2012). The long-term effects of a more sedentary lifestyle, growing childhood obesity, and decreases in funding creates a situation where sporting associations may need to increase their Funding for sport and physical activity is in presence and role, to deliver programs in school for decline in Canada, compared to growing costs physical education. of participation (Kingston, 2012). As the Indicators expense of sports increases, the ability for Funding cuts in education and teacher unrest put sport organizations, communities and extracurricular programs at risk may exacerbate families to maintain current participation levels may the decline in participation and overall activity in be jeopardized. Although government funding children and youth. reductions may not affect Tennis Canadas nances, Increasing reduction in funding for physical other grassroots service providers are vulnerable. At activity does no correspond to recent program the same time as funding restrictions are being initiatives of federal government. Disparity experiences at the community grassroots level, funding between educational funding provincial and federal for high-performance athletics has been maintained. desire for healthy lifestyles. Federal emphasis on international performance, while declining participation remains a reality in many Impacts sports, represents a policy and funding contradiction. Health care | Prevention Future funding to satisfy budgetary shortfalls may be a Determining responsibility for public health is a new reality for sports institutions, as government complicated debate, with a wide variety of stakeholders. allowances no longer meet necessities. Healthcare costs are of primary concern for federal and provincial governments. Increasing calls for innovative, Signals preventative methods of health care provision and Focus on High Performance Athletics promotion of healthy lifestyles are at the forefront International success in sport attracts funding from of this discussion. Sporting agencies, such as Tennis our federal government, in hopes of raising the prole Canada, will need to be increasingly aware of the of Canada as a sporting nation. Funding initiatives discussion, and potential areas that may impact their such as Own the Podium helped high performance business operations. athletes in preparation of 2010 Winter Olympics in Vancouver (Arthur, 2012). Federal commitment to high Whos Filling the Gap? performance has remained consistent, whereas funding Funding cuts for education and social programs in other areas related to physical activity and sport are presents a dilemma in providing services. There is declining relative to economic indicators. need to supplement funding to maintain existing Indicators levels of services, or the services will be left to Federal funding, Own the Podium continues to have decline or be eliminated altogether. The benet of federal support maintaining existing levels. physical education in learning, physical wellbeing, and Falling rates of sport participation including a community development counters growing trends of more sedentary lifestyle for youth; disparity with childhood obesity, social disconnection in youth, and funding, where top level continues and grassroots falling educational standards (Ifedi, 2008, p. 54). The in decline. balance of funding and escalating costs will continue to inuence political and economic decisions, federally Physical Education | Funding Cuts and provincially; while an immediate concern exists, Provincial ministries are under increasing budget long-term commitment is necessary. pressure to deliver the same level of services while nancially constrained. Physical education and levels of extracurricular activities in education has experienced a decline, forcing pressure to fund sports and other activities through other means (Foster, 2013). The same issues are being experienced in other
51
4.1.3 From East to West

Population growth, economic power and political restructuring focused in the west indicates a shift is occurring, positioning western Canada as a new political and economic powerhouse. Although regional disparities have always been present in Canada, the traditional economic engine of Ontario and Quebec is being supplanted by economic gains in western provinces. Economic opportunities are attracting highly skilled labour and new immigrants to thriving western communities. As resources (and other economic factors) continue to drive economic and political interests, the current shift may establish a new economic structure for Canada. Signals Wests Growing Economic Power Resource booms and an increasingly diverse economic base highlight the importance of the western Canada to our national economic future (Hirsch, 2011). The dominance of Ontario and Quebec is declining, and as momentum continues for western growth, the traditional formation and power structures are also under threat.
Indicators Canadian census statistics indicate that population
Richest cities in Canada are no longer the largest centres (i.e. Toronto, Vancouver, and Montreal). Richest and fastest growing urban economies are small western and northern centres.
4.1.4 Build Me a Player

Talent denes potential, yet competitive advantage is dictated by contributions from a wide variety of professionals, supporting the growth and maturation of a player. Kinesiology, bioscience, training programs, nutrition, and psychological preparation characterize todays competitive and professional players. The rate of technological advancement, particularly in biotechnology, may change the very nature of human beings and is an area of concern for sport. No longer will unfair advantage be based solely on chemical agents. Nanotechnology and genetic alteration may be a new normal for athletes, for injury recovery, training and even mental or emotional preparation. Technology may even allow us methods to predict where the best athletes are located and why they are superior, identifying talent before they even are aware.
development will increase in frequency and complexity.

Indicators Ethical governance of human enhancements is
Impacts New Focus for Community Development Increasing economic and political power in the west provide new regional opportunities, which in turn, may change where Tennis Canada organized player development centres in Canada. Additionally, community tennis growth outside the major centres may affect distribution of resources to support new growth areas. Increasing presence facilities, media attention, public awareness in areas with thriving economies may provide interesting opportunities for future growth in the sport. Centralized Governance and Regional Disparity Addressing regional disparity is difcult in Canada, as distance creates administration challenges to support programs aimed at changing circumstances. As new development sites emerge in the west, shifting resources and stafng to western locations may be required. Barriers and Friction The Establishment With the continued emphasis on western economic and political power, increasing conict with established systems, particularly in Ontario, will continue to exert considerable inuence. Tennis Canada having national facilities in Montreal and Toronto will continue to have an eastern focus.
lagging behind emerging technologies. A gap between change and our ability to manage its outcome, in society and sport, is increasingly difcult. What constitutes an able-bodied, human athlete may be difcult to determine in future decades. New emergent technologies, nanotech, human enhancement offer new opportunities for injury recovery, training and tness, and competitive advantage during sporting events.
growth is unevenly distributed across Canada, with recent trend of considerable growth in western provinces and northern territories, mostly based on economic opportunities. Federal government seeking to address political inequity between eastern and western provinces. Small Centre Growth | Urban Shift The Canadian population continues to be centralized in urban centres, where 90% of the population is now considered urban. Although devastating for rural communities, this phenomenon has been ongoing for decades. The urban centres of choice are not only the large urban cities (Toronto, Montreal, Vancouver), but also smaller centres are being selected, as they offer distinct advantages such as a higher quality of life (Kirby & Alini, 2012).
Indicators Youth demographic shifts show suburbs and smaller
Impacts Monitoring The impact of Lance Armstrongs admission of drug use and orchestration of a sophisticated illegal doping program highlights the difculty with monitoring and enforcement of illegal or band substances. Although tennis remains relatively unscathed by scandal, the ability of enforcement agencies to maintain a level Signals playing eld will become increasingly difcult. Human Enhancements | Biotech Emergence | Allocating resources and devising suitable responses Nanotechnology Technological advances in the biotechnology are one of to emerging human enhancement via technology will be imperative as the character and denition of unfair the most important technology trends that will affect advantage become ambiguous. Public reaction to a the condition of humans through the next century. major scandal may affect tennis growth and overall Advances in human enhancement may see any number of human disabilities remedied. Ethical questions aside, participation. Therefore, awareness and management technological advances will affect the future of sports of potential threats may require new emphasis for and the nature of what constitutes an athlete (Knight, governing organizations. 2012). Challenges of governance for new and emerging technologies and their inuence on training and player
urban centres are attractive to youth employment markets. 52

Photo: leo Monahans Texas Pr Do Sol Texas Ocidental, Pixabay cc Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial license.
Image by darkart.cz, Google Web cc Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial license.
53
4.1.5 My Custom Morning Jacket

The band, My Morning Jacket, attribute their name to a found jacket with initials MMJ embroidered inside. Lead singer, Jim James, interpreted the initials to refer to My Morning Jacket (Staff Writer, The Independent, 2008). Shifts in technology present a similar scenario, where individuals are both inuenced by shared or found experience, and the interpretation is one of personal connection. The role of technology in society shows a rise of a highly customized, personal experience and relationship to our activities. Signals Custom Coaching and Training | The Personalized Approach Advances in augmented and virtual reality, access to information, and its effects on training could revolutionize what we understand as sport training and coaching today. The ability for coaches and trainers to monitor athletes, develop personalized training programs, and customize all aspect of a players development will be possible.
Indicators Wearable computing and data recording is
Recording real time data, accessible on site and used for custom training regimes; development of equipment designed with monitoring embedded, rather than add-on.
Personal Interactive Experience | Augmented and Virtual Reality | Virtual Simulation New data provides personalize approaches to training, while advanced computer simulations, gamication of education and augmented reality will provide innovative methods to experience sport, including an ability to decentralize training and competition. With new simulated environments, augmented and virtual environments can be used in a number of capacities. Currently, virtualized training simulations may provide great opportunity for injury recover. In the coming decades, the extension of such environments could revolutionize how training is provided, and perhaps competition.
Indicators Sensors in tennis Babolat racquet records personal
The Next Wave | Embracing a New Digital Frontier New opportunities emerge from implementing technology to bridge distance, offering simultaneous training from one central source to multiple satellite locations, and exploring the world of data itself. Adopting a position where technology is the driver rather that the afterthought be establish a long-term, competitive advantage for sporting agencies as wells as athletes.
4.1.6 Big Data, Big Role

Personal data collection and evolution of wearable computing is one of the most important advances in our digital mobile world. Our ability to ask new questions, analyze trends, and model data may facilitate prediction of consumer tendencies, a major benet for businesses. In tennis, more effective training may develop as a result of new data models, analysis of captured data, and prediction of biologic and emotional responses during training sessions, thus, adding to a players development on all levels. The advance of data capture, storage and analysis of massive data sets provides opportunities that have not been available in the past. Incorporation of behavioural, emotional and biochemical evaluation of response may enhance understanding of motivation and identify conditions leading to peak performance. For example, interpreting players responses may indicate potential burnout, allowing steps to be taken before it occurs. Signals Personal Data Recording | Wearable Computers The growth of wearable computing is extensive. Personal data collection devices are connected through mobile computing. The next generation of wearable computers will extend our ability to collect and process data, including emotional and behaviour responses (Staff Writer, The Next Web, 2012). The potential for training and skill development for sport will be vast, as data collected during training and competition will become standard.
Indicators Mobile implants, Google glasses and wearable
Big Data Analysis Big data will be inuential in our near future, complementing the ease of data capture and massive storage capacity. New modeling and analysis techniques extend our abilities to link previously disjointed data sets together. Emergent relationships and correlations can be sought that not possible using past tools. The possibilities for sport development and training may radically alter training programs, nutrition, and medical treatments for recovery. Additionally, new predictive modeling techniques may identify peaks in athletic development with greater accuracy. As a result, resources to ensure maximum success may be distributed more effectively with real time responses to an athletes performance needs.
Indicators Predictive analytics from deep dives into Big Data
provide greater accuracy to market predictions and consumer insights. Impacts Analyze for Prediction New analytic modeling possibilities developed in conjunction with amassing immense datasets may have been previously impractical as correlations between data sets may have been too expensive produce. Big Data will establish relationships where none were present before. Easy data collection and cheap storage allow for new types of data to be collected allowing possibilities for analysis to move beyond impact and implication to prediction with increasing accuracy.
data. Using simulations for training and injury recovery, as well as gamication of tness emerging Impacts Individual vs. Collective Needs The ability to monitor and analyze personal data for personal development is the new technological reality within sport. The balance between individual concerns and collective approaches may strain existing techniques for sport and community development. The ability for organizations to adapt and embrace new technologies may affect relevance and success. Cost has been a barrier for many to adopt technology on a personal level. However, as the rate of technological advance increases, a corresponding drop in cost accompanies the advance, presenting an interesting opportunity. The biggest opportunities in the sports industry today lie in providing exciting, high-value opportunities for sports fans, such as high-tech recreational gear at reasonable prices; spectator sports ticket packages that represent good value; exercise/tness services and programs that will appeal to aging baby boomers; and equipment and apparel that represents high value and exciting design. Consumers still want to play, but they want to do so at a reasonable cost. (Plunkett, 2012)
becoming inexpensive and easy to integrate, allowing for continuous data capture during training.
Image by Keoni Cabral, Flickr cc Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial license.
computing creates huge opportunity for data gathering. Constant data gathering and wearable computing provide new platform for mobile technology. All in light of amassing data, analyzing consumer trends.
cc
Image by mrflip, Flickr Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial license.
54
55
Our ability to predict with greater accuracy will change the types of questions asked by imagining new connections, looking for greater insights, and making better use of available resources. Sports agencies may develop competitive advantage through use of data and analytics. Personal use of captured data and analytic capabilities will change the relationship between individuals and sporting professionals regarding training and long-term development.
for commercial activities. Generally, social network use to engage and grow participation is limited and under utilized (Viasport, 2012). Signals Social Media | Primary Social Inuence Our new digital reality emphasizes online social connections, changing the nature of interaction, social organization and peer inuence. The impact on youth is most noticeable, although social media penetration is (unevenly) distributed across participating demographics. Inuence, connection and organization emanating from digital social networks provide a new set of determinants for children and youth and shaping their focus and participation (Wilms, 2012).
Indicators Fan engagement is concentrating more on social
4.1.7 Social-Digi-Net Inuence

Close personal social networks carry more inuence to determine our behaviour than perhaps any other group. What a friend or family member tells us is authoritative and inuences our decisions concerning our activities. For sport, entry tends to be facilitated through a primary social connection: friend, family, or close community member. Therefore, the impact of digital social networks and challenges around physical tness related to participation is signicant. Social media for sport tends to be focused on brand awareness, fan engagement, and targeted marketing
cc Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial license. Image by Marc_Smith, Flickr
within a select social group. Within this digital space, The future ability of consumers to maintain current sports now compete with shifting popularity, diversity levels of spending remains inconclusive. The result of choice, and rapid decision-making, which sometimes creates increasing pressure for limited consumer dollars is isolated from conventional forms of media inuence. for entertainment, luxury items, and sports activities. In the past, a child might participation in multiple sports, whereas, new economic constraints may limit The popularity, reach (media, commercial), and national prominence of a sport may shape participation, this to one preferred sport. and the (digital) conversation surrounding it becomes Indicators integral to ensure its future. Sporting agencies need Economics point to a middle class that is losing it comprehensive digital strategies to engage in online consumer buying power, shifting many middle class networks to contribute to the conversation and help households into lower income brackets. entice individuals to participate in sport. Future predictions of continued trends reducing
networking and web based tools. Social inuence governs decision-making for youth, and sport participation.
4.1.8 Wheres the Middle Gone?

Family inuence is a vital factor in sports participation for children and youth. The family constitutes an important element in a childs primary social group, providing strong motivation to continue participation as part of the familys culture. Support remains vital to ensure continuing participation to a sport (Fredricks & Eccles, 2004). In tennis, entry into sport tends to be low cost, involving a local neighbourhood or community level connection. However, long-term involvement particularly at higher competitive levels requires increasing levels of resources to maintain connection. Not only is access to year-round facilities expensive, but also the time commitment to transport kids to and from training sessions. Thus, competitive tennis still manages to be dominated by families with means, largely considered middle- or upper- class. Recent indications of decline in middle-class demographics may jeopardize this position. The representation of family is not necessarily traditional rather it serves as a denition of a social structure. Signals Consumer and Political Power In North America, the middle class historically represented economic and political power. As the middle class shows a decline, shifts in political and economic power favours populations in western Canada (The Canadian Press, 2012c). Long-term impacts may affect funding for social services as disparities arise elative to cost of living.
the inuence and number of the middle class in Canada and United States. Impacts Maintaining Connection to Tennis Involving children at an early age helps to foster a long-term relationship with that sport. Elite players tend to be exposed in childhood allowing for the requisite number of hours of development to reach mastery of their chosen sport. As consumer spending decreases within middle class, a reduction in choice and increase in specialization may occur as the number of sports a child participates in declines. Thus,
Impacts Whos Controlling the Message? The behavioural character of social networks has changed how individuals exert inuence within their peer group. A single comment, a like or even ignoring a post may produce a subtle catalyst to change our tendencies, which becomes a pervasive inuence
Photo: Allegheny_Ludlum_Steel_Corp_Scrap_Piles, WikiCommons cc Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial license.
56
57
increasing the need to ensure a connection with tennis as sport of choice. Available Resources Tennis participation tends to be characterized by individuals having means (income and available resources) to ensure family members can access the sport. Therefore, income distribution is an important consideration for the nancial model supporting Canadas tennis system. Currently, demographic emphasis on middle- and upper-class families who can accommodate the time and resource commitments required to have children participate in tennis has been the norm. A middle class decline may require a different focus to maintain participation levels in the sport.
the elder class (Statistics Canada, 2011). Declining population growth rates imply a complex intertwining of steady (but not increasing) immigration rates, falling birth rates, and a general shift in values, where single child or no-child families are more common. These factors contribute to conditions leading to a greater aging population, and social issues related to a higher population of elderly citizens. Signals Shape of Canadian Demographics As the elder class continues to grow, strains on healthcare and social services to support its growing numbers may impact political and social structures, both related funding and administration of services. Such changes also impact our labour force and consumer spending patterns.
Indicators Government statistics show a dramatic growth
Impacts Health and Longevity As Canadian population grows older, the impact on healthcare provision will be immense. To deect some of the stress, emphasis on healthy lifestyles, including physical activity will increase in importance. Sporting agencies may need to adjust current programs to increase opportunities and support for greater numbers of older participants rather than only focusing on child and youth involvement. Philanthropy and Baby Boomers As demographics continue to shift, and Canadian population grows older, increasing resources concentrated with the Baby Boomer generation will be released. Philanthropic donations may prove to be appropriate outlets for some boomers, contributing to public wellbeing as well as continuing a legacy of personal connection to a cause.
4.2.1 Recalibration of Global Economy

In 2008, the global nancial collapse restructured nancial, political and social institutions, and redened economic superiority, broadening to include emerging economies. The results create challenges for economic forecasting, as new models must adapt to growing uncertainty. Although such global economic transformations have occurred in the past, present conditions are signicant. As a driver, recalibration of the global economy profoundly affects Canada, and by extension, sports within Canada. The implications identify reinforcing the status quo as one pole along its spectrum, where dominance by North America and Europe continues to be the norm. At the other pole, a radical shift establishing new emerging economies as the global economic engine, will reorganize our global structure, socially, politically, and nancially. Tennis Canadas business model may experience challenges and stresses, as the underlying economic system establishes a new equilibrium. Adapting to changes in consumer purchasing, media distribution, sponsorship and funding affect business objectives, and ultimately, challenge reaching the preferred future.
4.1.9 Rise of the Elder Class

Canadas declining growth rate and aging baby boomer generation will have profound impact on societys demographics, pointing to a new reality of the dramatic growth in
cc Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial license. Photo by m_dougherty, Flickr
in the elder class, both due to baby boomer generation growing older and reduction in population growth, particularly falling birth rates. Potential healthcare crisis from number of Canadian requiring more health care services in association with advanced age.
4.2 Drivers
Change drivers act as foundational and causal forces that shape our society and produce transformations in a system. Drivers act at lower levels within systems, and are based on a longer-term time horizons (Gordon, 2009, p. 133). Greater understanding can be gained by examining the effects of driver-based changes on system dynamics, and their creation of pathways leading to the preferred future. Three drivers have been identied due to their ability to signicantly impact the system of Canadian tennis. The drivers are categorized as having inuence on the business model, technology or social wellbeing.
58
59
4.2.2 Governance of Technologys Advance

Modern society and technology are inextricably linked. However, change is accelerating at a remarkable rate, which is unprecedented in human history. Our collective ability to police technologys rate of change, and evaluate its outcomes will reshape our society. Ethical questions raised by biotechnological enhancements confront our imagination of future consequences. The impacts on sport will be signicant, as even the denition of a human athlete may become vague.
Our capacity to manage technological change is a societal concern. Sport is a highly visible extension of our society, where issues are scrutinized in a public forum. Advancements may challenge cultural values forcing governing bodies to weigh the potential benet against unintended consequences. Governance of technologys advance as a driver provides a continuum to represent the tensions in our current capacities in sporting administration. Exercising full control will restrict the use of technology until all possible outcomes are determined, revealing our fears of human enhancement. At the other end of the spectrum, open access would allow any and all genetic or biological enhancements to be used in sports.
As a driver, the changing nature of Canadas character present challenges for our existing institutions. Their responses may dictate whether or not preferred future, Horizon 3, is reachable. Retreating to a historic, traditional view Canadian identity will shape public service provision; what areas receive funding and which services will be prioritized. Embracing a new identity, typifying diversity (cultural, socio-economic and age) and processes to ensure inclusivity, shift our social organization towards the suggested preferred future.
4.2.1 Changing Character of Canadian Demographics

Changes to Canadas demographics show that the median age of our population continues to rise. There are a number of factors that contribute to this phenomenon, including a falling birth rate and baby boomer generation advancing along the population pyramid. The impacts on society will be dramatic requiring increased healthcare spending and social programs geared to an
aging population. Immigration becomes increasingly important to maintain population growth, while increasing diversity and ethnic population as a result, changes the nature of Canadian representation. Such demographic shifts will affect rates of participation in sport, altering emphasis to older generations, rather than traditional youth market. Additionally, concentration of resources in growth centres will be necessary, as well as, focusing on funding for sport and recreational activity that is age appropriate in a particular community. Healthcare concerns will also inuence focus on physical activity and promotion of active, healthy lifestyles. Increases in immigration may counter some of the impacts, and increase the cultural diversity of our national character.
60
61
5 Meeting a Preferred Future

The strategic foresight approach is designed to engage the imagination, and to model futures based on emerging trends in the contributing systems.
Photo by ChadCooperPhotos (Flickr), available under
cc
62
63
Benets of the Preferred Future State This study adopts an idealized vision for Canadian tennis, where tennis is one of Canadas top 5 sports and wholly representative of Canadas population. Although current participation totals for tennis have In this study, the preferred future state is based on surpassed 5 million participants, the rate of change the visions of Sport Canada and Tennis Canada. Sport Canadas mission represents an extension of the federal is only slightly higher than the growth rates for the entire population (Statistics Canada, 2008 & Canadian governments mandate as presented by Canadian Heritage. The vision to embrace Canadian diversity and Heritage, 2012). There are two important strategies that will contribute to growth in tennis. First, provide encourage sport participation in accordance with our national character embodies Sport Canadas core values. resources that allow people long-term access to tennis facilities. Second, manage tennis relevance as a Multiculturalism and immigration are cornerstones of sport in Canada by developing campaigns to grow the Canadian society that are still valued today, and are audience. expressed through our sports organizations. Tennis Canada encourages similar precepts for tennis, which
One of its advantages is its ability to expand in scope, to move beyond the probable, to examine things that might be possible. Broadening the context strengthens the strategic analysis by including a greater number of external factors. The Three Horizons model predicts the cumulative effect of many changes on a possible desired future state. The preferred future serves as a target, and business operations can be evaluated according to their ability to achieve this target.
seeks to promote participation among all Canadians. The trends and drivers that are selected for study have a high impact on existing structures, and on the dynamics of the system. Assessing the impacts of persistent socio-cultural themes identies areas where their inuence is still being felt.
Socially, Canada is composed of a diverse immigrant population, with countries of origin in Asia, Eastern Europe and Africa. The population continues to grow older with the median age for Canadians now reaching 40 years of age. Economically, emerging national economies are diminishing the dominance of North America and Europe in global nancial markets. Ontario and Quebecs nancial stability is under threat for a number of reasons, such as increased economic prosperity in the west. Increasing participation in tennis remains a primary method to ensure that the sport remains economically viable, as statistically increased participation in tennis increases the chances of producing top level professional players, which in turn fuel commercial activities, audience support and media sponsorship. This analysis shows that increasing access, which includes reducing the obstacles created by socioeconomics, gender bias and cultural representation, is necessary to achieve this vision for tennis, and to stabilize tennis economic viability. Making tennis
appeal to a wider audience and fostering personal connections will help to make tennis one of Canadas top sports, and will address the lack of diversity within tennis. As tennis can be a sport for life, promoting tennis as a sport designed for adult life may be an important part of this strategy. Tennis Canadas business model benets from a reinforcing loop, as success at the professional level helps to generate revenue, which supports player development to produce further professional players and success at the top-levels. Attracting the best athletes to join tennis is the result of a wellestablished, structured development program that produces the highest quality professional tennis players with the best chance of succeeding. By identifying and working towards a preferred future, Tennis Canada will reinforce this cycle of success and player development; as levels of participation grow, the probability of developing a greater number of professional athletes who are successful at international levels increases, although it is not guaranteed.
Figure 8 Preferred State (Horizon 3) (Adapted from Source: Curry & Hodgson, 2008)
Figure 9 - Participation Spire
horizon 1
horizon 2
horizon 3
preferred state
(stated vision, mission)
64
65
Participation rates for tennis in Canada have surpassed 5 million, and yet producing top-level professional players who win international tournaments has remained an elusive goal. The likelihood of becoming a successful professional tennis player is statistically small. Growing the participation base for the sport increases the probability of producing professional athletes. Providing support for players as they progress through competitive levels is also critical, as the cost of participating is still high. Therefore, ensuring that many Canadians participate in tennis and are continually supported throughout their tennis careers increases the likelihood of producing top-level professionals. To meet this vision requires more access and stronger support structures at the community level.
5.1 Implications
In this study, emerging drivers are aligned with their economic, technological and social contexts and their effects on Tennis Canadas business activities are considered. This analysis identies the key operational processes that are the most affected and therefore are the greatest potential risks to the organization. The results can be used to generate recommendations for strategic planning and used to build actionable plans related to business objectives. Implications are also affected by the persistence of social themes (class, gender, race) or mega-drivers, which are broad-scale sources of friction that work against change. The impacts of mega-drivers cascade throughout our society and are visible in tennis and sport in Canada. Mitigating the negative effects of mega-drivers on tennis is vital to moving towards the preferred future. However, as mega-drivers operate at a societal level, eliminating their impact is beyond the scope of sport, or tennis.
5.1.1 Economic Environment

Economic Environment Trends Driver Economic Tensions Business Tensions Business Unusual Whos Funding Whom? From East to West Recalibration of Global Economy Agility of current business model, adapting to change Accuracy of nancial projections in growing uncertainty Maintaining program levels, securing funding Commercial interests Professional success, funding player development Federal / Provincial funding
including increasing levels of program services, may stress existing resources, and there is a need to nd alternative sources of revenue. Additional shifts in demographics, immigration and ethnic and socio-economic diversity also require new funding to meet growing demand. Value shifts and demographic changes, including an aging population, will re-focus social priorities, which in turn may inuence government allotments to public services. Governmental commitment to high-performance sport will be maintained through 2014, a carry-over from the commitment to maximize Olympic performance in Vancouvers 2010 Winter Olympic Games. Although international sporting success increases commercial interest in a sport, the correlations between high-level success and increases in general participation are not conclusive. Thus, the conict between federal and provincial interests creates competing priorities for service provision. Healthcare and education operate as provincial mandates, while national sporting agencies operate in conjunction with federal policy, independent of provincial agencies. Ensuring social wellbeing, and healthy lifestyles through the promotion of physical tness is disjointed between provincial and federal mandates. As Tennis Canada relies primarily on private sources of funding, the ability to maintain existing programs and operational goals has not changed in the current climate. However, the relationships between provincial tennis associations and Tennis Canadas goals are inextricably linked. Funding reductions for provinces may increase
cc Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial license. Photo by Viditu, Flickr
Metrics, Forecasting and Validating Economic Assumptions The uncertain national and global economy increases the need to nd reliable methods to measures and interpret factors inherent in the instability. Business models need to account for an increased range of possible risks and to develop contingencies to maintain existing levels of productivity. Forecasting bases its measures and predictability on known parameters. However, using weak signals to ground forecasting assumptions may introduce higher degrees of uncertainty than are permissible in the model. Models based on nancial assumptions prior to 2008 are no longer valid or require modication to remain congruent with current trends. Slower economic recovery in Canada and the emergence of powerful economies around the world has changed the nature of global economics. Validating assumptions that underlie strategic decision-making is increasingly important. Existing models may no longer account for the actual level of variability and uncertainty, which may lead to business failure. Social Service Gulf The reduction of funding for social services in this difcult economic climate creates a deciency in our social service network. Government funding alone will not meet the increasing and diverse demands for services. Flexible and responsive approaches to public needs are necessary. Sport and sporting agencies rely on and contribute to the social health of a nation. The ability of agencies to achieve business objectives,
66
67
pressure on Tennis Canada to contribute more of its operational budget to the provinces. Western Power Emergence Canadas nancial and political power has historically been centred in the east. Toronto and Montreal have been the two major urban centres providing the infrastructure for this domination. In the 1970s, Toronto and Montreal competed for economic and political power. However, the social and political conditions resulting from the potential separation of Quebec from Canada made Montreal less attractive as a headquarters for businesses.
The growing economic and political power of the west is related to a number of factors. New smaller urban centres are attracting people with economic opportunities and a good standard of living. Many desirable smaller centres are located in western provinces. Economic power may also force the relocation of nancial headquarters to western cities, similar to what occurred in the 1970s, when many institutions left Montreal for Toronto. Although the circumstances are different, the political and economic ramications are equally signicant.
5.1.2 Technology & Sport Governance

Technology and Sport Governance Trends Driver Environment Tensions Business Tensions Build me a Player My Custom Morning Jacket Big Data, Big Role Governance of Technologys Advance Maintaining tennis image, public relations in post Lance Armstrong era The Unfair Advantage Technology to counter regional disparity Commercial interests Training programs, coaching and tennis professionals
Scandal, Finances and Ethics The next generation of designer drugs and the ability to monitor and catch potential rule-breakers will continue to be an issue for all sports. The recent high-prole exposure of Lance Armstrongs network, which supported continued doping throughout his career, shows the difculties in policing sports and the considerable money and resources required to be effective. Banned substances are only the tip of the iceberg as genetic manipulation, nanotechnology and human enhancements provide new innovations for athletes. Sports institutions ability to govern may be compromised by the speed of change and the types of new technologies available to athletes. Testing methods are currently not designed to identify new chemical, microbiological or genetic enhancements, and this compromises the effectiveness of enforcement procedures.
sets and infer causation is now far beyond what was possible in the past, and this provides a unique advantage for businesses and organizations using this resource. In addition, the democratization of information will continue and personal access and specialized analysis will give individuals the ability to analyze their own personal performance and development with greater ease and accuracy. Information will no longer by under organizational control, facilitating the emergence of new data conglomerates, such as Amazon, Google, and Nike. Access to data analysis tools and information will no longer be isolated within specialized silos. Innovative organizations will implement such technology as a business advantage, in turn attracting talent, both athletes and staff.
In Canada, travel distance is a limiting factor for sports competition and for the distribution of Another persistent issue in the discussion of resources, and contributes to regional disparity. New technological advancements is that access is limited by nancial considerations. There is still a considerable technologies, such as training simulators and advanced communications, provide a means to reduce the impact cost associated with new forms of technology, even of distance, particularly in training. Advances in as older-forms become much cheaper. The rate of technological advancement and our ability to consume computer simulation, telecommunications and real time data analysis, provide new possibilities for training it may reinforce existing disparities between the athletes in remote locations, providing face-to-face haves and have-nots, locally, nationally and globally. interaction and real-time responses from coaches who Ethical issues arising from the augmenting of humans are reviewing and monitoring performance. via biotechnology, nanotechnology or other forms of human manipulation will be increasingly difcult to manage as the speed of technological innovation continues to increase. In the sporting community, questions of performance enhancement will move beyond chemical additives to genetic and biochemical manipulation. Sporting institutions are ill equipped to deal with this new situation, as effective testing regimes, and the monitoring and enforcement of behaviours require considerable resources. In relation to sport and the governance of sport, new types of training regimes, bio-enhancements and alterations to what constitutes a human being will require diligent scrutiny to determine whether or not an unfair advantage exists. The resources required to adequately monitor an athlete must keep pace with the technologies that mask its use. Data Emergence Big data facilitates new possibilities in data analysis and research. The ability to analyze disparate data
cc
Photo by tpower1978, Flickr Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial license.
cc Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial license. Photo by Keith Allison, Flickr
68
69
5.1.3 Social Environment

Social Environment Trends Driver Environment Tensions Social-Digi-Net Inuence Wheres the Middle Gone? Rise of the Elder Class Changing Character of Canadian Demographics Communities in ux New / existing Canadians identifying with tennis as sport of choice Active lifestyle versus growing health care concern, sedentary population Legacy system, equity and access for participation Organization and administration Participation and access
accommodate the impacts of such a dramatic shift in our social structure. The aging population will require new and innovative systems to address their needs and current service requirements may not even be recognized. Maintaining health later in life will help ease health care related costs. Physical activity will be one element within a comprehensive, long-term strategy, and sport may be an important part of these changes, not only for tness, but also for facilitating social connections. Children and youth continue to be the main focus of sporting organizations, which are seeking to maintain participation levels. However, adult populations are growing in importance, both as continuing and new and returning participants.
particular sport. Maintaining a vibrant presence is part of remaining relevant in digital communities and helps to guide the discussion surrounding a sport.
5.2 Strengths, Weaknesses Opportunities& Threats

A Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats (SWOT) analysis illustrates how implications can be used to evaluate potential risks and prospects arising from future conditions, and to examine strategic objectives and future successes based on current business activities. Tennis Canada uses SWOT analysis in their strategic planning process and this creates an opportunity to combine a familiar business tool with strategic foresight. This provides a means to evaluate conditions over a 10-15 year period, to examine the business activities that will benets or limit an imagined future. To provide a context a descriptive narrative is provided which details a target, a situation, and a narrative to help imagine what a preferred future may resemble. The target is Tennis Canadas idealized vision. The situation is a description of what conditions may exist 10-15 years from now. The narrative provides an example of how the future might look as extrapolated from the analysis of trends and drivers. The narrative resolves issues associated with mega-drivers as part of achieving the preferred future, although they are not prescribed as part of the story. In part, this version of the future predicts the elimination of any lasting, negative effects class, gender, and race. This stance helps to identify gaps where adding or altering existing business activities might help to achieve such an outcome. Environmental factors, such as volatile climatic events, are mentioned as a known uncertainty (IPCC, 2012), although not incorporated into the research.
business efciencies (threat), restricting a businesss capacity to meet its business objectives. The opportunities and threats are imagined as occurring 10-15 years into the future. The strengths and weaknesses sections look at how current activities might be affected if they continued for 10-15 years, and what affects that might have on organization structure. The target The target describes the preferred future, an ideal imagining of what might result if the vision is achieved. The imagined future includes ubiquitous participation in tennis across Canada. This participation is representative of Canadian diversity and open and
Business Tensions
strengths
weaknesses internal
Reducing the Inuence of Socio-cultural Themes (Mega-trends) As the composition and character of the Canadian population continues to change, overcoming stereotypes and out-dated perceptions will be critical in ensuring continued and increasing participation in tennis. Immigration continues to shape our cultural identity, as immigrants from increasingly varied countries of origin contribute to Canadas cultural diversity. New Canadians create opportunities to establish strong connections with particular sports, as existing cultural groups have done in the past. European immigration increased Canadians connection to football (soccer), creating an administrative and competitive infrastructure for the sport. New Canadians will shape which sports continue to grow and which ones will decline. Identication with athletes and sports is an important factor in continued participation, and a sport must create a culture where diverse socio-economic, cultural and ethnic communities are seen to be welcome. Ensuring diversity not only fullls the government mandate, but also helps to grow the participatory base, as new participants enter into the sport, because they are comfortable that the sport embodies their cultural character and identity.
opportunites
threats external
New Communication and Engagement Strategies Traditional primary relationship groups (family, neighbours, community) are being replaced by relationships that are established or reinforced in electronic spaces. Social networks extend primary relationship groups beyond normal social interaction, and increase the frequency with which an individual is connected to the group. The result inuences children and youths decision-making, including which sports to participate in. Digital engagement and communication strategies Sport and Youth Focus As Canadian societys median age continues to increase, are new priorities for organizations, which are now prioritizing their control of the conversation about a changes to our social service network will need to 70
equitable access is present regardless of location or nancial resources. Positive connections with individuals, families and communities foster a sense of inclusivity, and there is a collective effort to balance support for gifted athletes with general participation. Tennis thrives as a top national sport, in which all Canadians can imagine themselves achieving success.
The situation The purpose of the situation is to provide context for the audience to understand what the impacts and The SWOT then analyzes various aspects of these implications might look like when projected into the future conditions, describing their impact on the proposed time horizon. In this narrative, the situation organization, from both an internal and external describes a future 15 years from the present, as a perspective. Strengths and weaknesses relate to the backdrop for the preferred future. capabilities or deciencies of the business (internal), Fifteen years from now, the economy has still not whereas opportunities and threats are external fully recovered from the deep, triple recession conditions that may increase competitive advantages, felt worldwide, which caught Canada unprepared. grow (opportunity) businesses prospects, or diminish Increased provincial and regional disparity has
71
stretched provincial governments ability to provide social services. Sport is in crisis as support has dramatically decreased except for allocated funding for the highest levels of competitive sport with an international focus. Western Canada has steadily grown in economic and political power, and parliamentary reform has responded by distributing additional seats to the west and north. Healthcare is in dramatic need of innovation and has earmarked substantial funds to promote healthy lifestyles for those over 45, the new median age for Canadians. Climate proves unpredictable, with more frequent and extreme climate events. The narrative, a possible future for tennis A narrative of a possible future is an attempt to incorporate the analysis of trends and drivers, and show what the preferred future might resemble, economically and socially. Canada, once again, is in the nals of the Fed Cup, on a strong showing from Iman Nassar and Wendy Ko. The Calgary Open the 5th major in the new 35+ ATP/WTA tour is underway, with Dechen Yexe, a new Canadian resident, originally from Tibet, competing for the rst time with a regrown knee joint. Tennis equipment sales top all sports, as every kid wants to have Babolats new AeroSurge 10G a fully integrated, responsive racquet with a 500 credit bonus to access Babolats virtual training facility, partnering with Li Nas training system from Shanghai. From Dartmouth to Abbotsford, from Inuvik to Saskatoon, tennis is the new IT sport, as youth connect with virtual, social tennis galleries and elder players play in new, full-service mature living centres, converting ofce towers into a fully integrated, activity focused residences.
performance tennis, positions Tennis Canada as a focal point to engage audiences and promote awareness in Canada, through strategic alliances with major media sponsors. Established relationships with provincial and federal government and related ministry agencies provide strong communication channels related to sport governance and national policy decisions. Tennis Canada has existing strong ties with ATP, WTA, ITF, and Olympic and Para-Olympic Committees. The organization supports a diverse set of programs promoting participation across Canada. Established outreach programs and other community engagement activities, including programs based on Progressive Tennis such as Little Aces, also attempt to counter existing systemic barriers to playing tennis. Ownership of The Rogers Cup establishes a unique revenue stream, not available to other Canadian sporting agencies. The tournament also helps to support other ITF tournaments across Canada. Staff loyalty and advocacy for tennis creates a passionate internal culture, embodied in its activities, including The Rogers Cup.
The preferred future state requires attention to new forms of program development and community outreach. Having a committed, responsive staff may allow the organization to meet new challenges, while still maintaining the supporting infrastructure.
success at higher levels of competition. Therefore, broadening participation provides the best insurance for continuing success and ensures that the sport survives nancially.
The strengths
Strengths represent positive attributes of the organization that provide a competitive advantage or add to its ability to achieve its business objectives. Tennis Canada has a legacy as the national sporting agency for tennis. This puts the organization at the forefront of tennis development for professional and high-performance tennis in Canada. Brand recognition, particularly for high
Discussion Tennis Canadas established relationships are critical, as communication and being present at discussions will be important in future decades. Establishing a new high level tour, such as a new professional 35+ tour, may be improbable due to nancial constraints and competition for existing tour resources. However, if it is established, Tennis Canadas relationship with the existing professional tours, the existence of The Rogers Cup, and the economic inuence of the west, could create an opportunity to host a major tournament, perhaps in Calgary. Tennis Canadas existing organization and its administration of The Rogers Cup lends itself to adding another major tournament of considerable scale. Existing programs are attempting to look at community development through enhanced integration, the use of alternative facilities and community outreach. The changing nature of Canadian society requires awareness, sensitivity and diligence to make tennis the sport for the future. Tennis Canada can use its brand as a bridge into communities that are isolated, at-risk or under-represented in tennis.
The complicated relationship with provincial tennis The weaknesses associations and by extension, provincial governments, creates a situation where organizations have different Weaknesses refer to conditions, activities or strategic objectives no matter how closely aligned operations that generate circumstances reducing an they appear. The effects are visible at various scales, organizations ability to achieve business objectives, and affect the coherence of the vision. This is further internally or externally. complicated as club activities and access to club Tennis Canada has a major presence as a promoter facilities remain independent, and therefore, are of high-performance tennis. Lower competitive governed by other business interests, specically levels are associated with provincial tennis those of individual clubs, regardless of whether associations creating a confused branding situation. membership is private, semi-private or public. Tennis Canadas relationship with provincial Shifting the membership model will require a tennis associations and provincial governments concerted effort from key stakeholders. is accepted, yet uneasy. Provincial government funding focuses capital and resources budgets Counteracting the overall decline in sport participation within provincial budgets, establishing loyalty and in Canada requires a new type of coordination and cobrand awareness at local levels with the province, operation between all of the key stakeholders, across rather than with the national agency. sporting spheres. The reasons for the decline are varied, Sports generally focus engagement programs to but nancial cost and declining levels of physical attract children and youth to sport. However, activity among youth are signicant challenges and are social and demographic shifts increased older reasons for concern. Technological changes, including population, youth not engaging in sport may digital communities, cannot be ignored as they are affect engagement strategies as the number pathways that are only becoming more important, of available children declines as a percentage as children become more integrated and perhaps of population, and an increasingly sedentary congruous with technology itself. population reduces the overall focus on sport. National sports agencies in Canada have difculty The opportunities in establishing relevancy in digital communities. Opportunities refer to circumstances or conditions Professional tours and individual sporting that an organization could capitalize on to increase brands are more savvy and are well-established, performance or functions related to business contributing signicant resources to ensuring that objectives. the digital community is maintained. The club system maintains the majority of indoor facilities, promoting the role of membership as the Multiple ATP Masters 500 / 250, WTA Premier or primary mechanism for year-round participation. International Tournaments The dynamics of the club system also perpetuate Securing ATP Master 500 and 250 Level tournaments, the public perception of the sport as elitist. or WTA International tournaments to add to and/or replace The Rogers Cup (Master 1000) could balance Discussion regional emphasis, establishing high-level tournaments High-performance tennis has been the historical focus in Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton, or Halifax. Such for Tennis Canada. In the past, player development tournaments could enhance partnerships with and lower levels of competition received little provincial tennis associations and encourage provincial attention or investment, limiting the transition of governments to build or upgrade facilities. Local players into the professional level. Growth in the ownership helps create media presence and public sport participation base increases the probability of awareness of new tournaments, helping to keep tennis
72
73
Changing the Game Personalized training regimens, digital social connectivity, 3D simulators, and data analytics are all Additional tournaments may also help to balance possible developments for new sports technologies. revenue, so that the organization is not principally The recording and analyzing of detailed information funded by a single event. in real time, integrated into personalized training regimes, will be available at low-cost. The evolution of Local issues related to weather and scheduling may training, skill development and even talent recruitment be diffused throughout the year. Creating facilities are all part of new technologies. Canadas national that promote competition on clay, grass, or indoors may also provide opportunities. Creating tournaments sports associations have an opportunity to adopt a technology-friendly stance, pushing beyond existing on these alternative surfaces reduces the risk of boundaries and established protocols. scheduling conicts, and gives each tournament a Technology also provides new possibilities for unique character, adding to the overall appeal of training programs. Issues of distance and access to Canada as an event provider. top-quality training and coaching across Canada are a concern for fostering talent without relocating Canada as Global Technology Leader Technological advances create potential opportunities, players. The new possibilities for virtual reality particularly for coaching and training. Fully embracing simulation, data collection and analysis, will allow for virtual connections to training facilities across technological innovations may differentiate Canada Canada, providing consistent, high-level expertise as a world leader in the use of new technologies for through high end telecommunication and simulated player development. Allowing technology to ow training environments. The commitment to advances in freely, introducing cutting edge facilities, utilizing technology may determine Canadas future prominence technology to reduce location and distance disparity, and adopting technology as a catalyst to bring about a in tennis, in both player development and coaching. proposed vision for the future of tennis in Canada are Embracing New Western Communities (Shifting all important opportunities for growth. Centres of Excellence) A resource rich western (and northern) economy in Using Big Data to Predict Success Canada reduces the dominance of eastern provinces, Big Datas inuence on consumer analytics and in particular Ontario and Quebec. Federally, Canadian market research is gaining momentum. The inherent potential of such tremendous amounts of data, and its political power has been consolidated in a western conservative base. Further parliamentary reforms ability to nd yet unrealized relationships, is its true may help western provinces attain more inuence in power. Will it be possible to predict where talent will emerge? Big data has the potential to determine causal coming decades. Inter-provincial migration highlights relationships between skills development, location and the importance of thriving western and northern communities, where skilled and non-skilled labour are potential success and to help in the procurement and attracted to high wages, and more disposable income development of talent, young and old. Establishing for residents. Canada as a global leader in Big Datas application for sport and tennis is possible, provided a long-term Moreover, these thriving communities in Western and commitment to technology becomes a core driver, Northern Canada are potential revenue streams, as a paving the way for innovation to permeate through different aspects of tennis. For example, personal data high standard of living enables families to support participation in sport. Programs that go where the collection could be used to address issues of mental and emotional wellbeing for athletes, and may help to money is may focus efforts on communities that determine support protocols before problems escalate, previously were not seen as viable. Partnering with these communities may facilitate the construction leading to burnout, injury or other more serious of indoor and outdoor facilities. Awareness of the outcomes. emergence of the west means that Tennis Canada could develop programs specically designed for these markets. in the public eye, through local pride and commitment. 74
Diversication of Funding Sources Diverse revenue sources provide stability and a greater assurance of long-term support for programs. New revenue sources may be available from healthcare initiatives designed to promote the benets of healthy lifestyles, including physical activity. Possible new strategic partners Health Canada, academic health networks, health-based foundations may emerge to ll the funding gaps left as provincial and federal governments reduce funding for particular social services. Additional funding may be available to address issues of equity and regional disparity across Canada, including new Canadians and underserviced communities. Development programs designed to penetrate isolated communities could establishes a new focus and presence for Tennis Canada as a community leader, countering perceptions of tenniss exclusiveness.
Downgrading of The Rogers Cup Currently The Rogers Cup is part of the ATP Masters 1000 and WTA Premier Class of tennis tournaments, which guarantees top level players, helping to ensure audience numbers. Tennis Canadas revenue model relies on The Rogers Cup (and related activities), which generate approximately 90% of its total revenue. Downgrading The Rogers Cup to a lower tier would jeopardize this revenue model. Organizational Agility Lack of organizational agility may stress operational processes and limit the ability to continue offering existing levels of service for communities and players. If conditions, including revenue generation, dramatically change (e.g. downgrading of The Rogers Cup), the existing infrastructure would need to be able to adapt to meet new requirements, including stafng and resource allocation. Provincial Tennis Associations (Strategic Alliances) Strategic alliances, particularly with the provincial tennis associations, are crucial to achieving the preferred future state, and therefore, maintaining alignment under funding uncertainties is critical. Addressing inequality, regional disparities and cultural
The threats
Threats refer to external conditions or circumstances that may limit an organizations ability to achieve their business objectives.
cc Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial license. Photo by CORE-Materials, Flickr
75
differences depends on evaluating programs, especially their reach within communities and their ability to fulll strategic objectives. For community development, jurisdiction falls to the provincial governments, with mandates that may not be in the best interests of Tennis Canada. Shifting Media: Adapting to New Media Forms Much of sport revenue generation is tied to media sponsorship, chiey television broadcast rights. As more and more viewers opt for alternative forms of media consumption, potential reductions in revenues and exposure for tennis may constrict audience growth, regardless of the current level of commitment by major broadcasters (i.e. Sportsnet, TSNs commitment to broadcast all ATP, WTA high-level tournaments). Competition from Apple TV, Google TV and others may disrupt traditional television delivery, providing choice and exibility, while remaining difcult to monetize to the same extent as traditional broadcast. Conversely, new revenue streams may emerge from these new media forms.
history to help mitigate the risk of scandal. However, such regulation requires a considerable investment in infrastructure to ensure proper enforcement. New innovations in nano- and biotechnology may be important advances for injury prevention and recovery, but the related ethical issues need to be addressed, and rules need to be created to monitor new types of technology. As was demonstrated in Lance Armstrongs case, enforcement is a backward facing endeavour, as testing techniques are most effective retroactively.
The downside is any disruption or shortcomings in The Rogers Cup, such as changes in its tournament status for the ATP or WTA tours, or increased competition through scheduling, creates difculties for the business operation. Diversifying the tournament roster, even in the event of a downgrade of The Rogers Cup, has the potential to bolster regional interest in tennis. The result may balance revenue generation across a number of events. Demographic shifts offer potentially benecial and possibly negative changes to tennis and Tennis Canadas ability to achieve its vision. Maintaining growth in participation among children and youth may be increasingly challenging, while providing new opportunities to enhance adult programs may emerge. Development strategies with provincial tennis associations and funding allocations from provinces continues to be divergent from national strategies, and harmonizing the collaboration between governments and stakeholders would offer benets, for example, providing a national membership program would help to solidify Tennis Canadas central role as promoter of tennis in Canada. NOTE: Additional details for the Opportunities and Threats are provided in Appendix B Additional Detail for Opportunities and Threats (SWOT Analysis).
Discussion A future-facing SWOT analysis provides valuable insights for strategic planning. Combining a common business analysis tool with strategic foresight and imagining a future state makes it possible to examine how an organizations positive and negative features may respond as conditions change in a predicted future. Adopting an internal perspective centred on risk mitigation may help an organization to realize its shortcomings and to maintain positive business activities, while eliminating less desirable traits. An organizations strengths will change over time, and a SWOT analysis can identify issues arising from shifting Adapting to New Canadian Demographics business conditions. For example, strong partnerships The aging population may reduce overall long-term may be viewed as an important strength, but future growth in audience and participation. conditions may render these same partnerships Designing new engagement opportunities for an inconsequential. Therefore, an organization can older population may emerge as a focus for sporting imagine what allowances are necessary to nurture new organizations, requiring additional investment and resources. Prioritizing new initiatives may take funding relationships, giving them time to mature over coming decades. away from current programs. Global Tennis Scandal A high prole scandal in tennis would have profound effects on the public perception of the sport. The Lance Armstrong scandal in cycling has brought the challenges of regulating sports and policing banned substances into public awareness, and has generated discussion about how to effectively police illegal use. A scandal in tennis could affect sponsorship and philanthropy, as donors distance themselves, as Nike, Oakley and others did in the aftermath of Armstrongs transgressions. Managing public image becomes more important as media and public opinion affect audience and participation levels. In tennis, there is increasing interest in ensuring the sports clean image, and top players such as Roger Federer and Andy Murray are calling for increased scrutiny and long-term management of biological 76
Reducing the inuence of mega-drivers is a multifaceted challenge, as the legacy of clubbased systems continues to foster a class-based organizational structure, with controlled access and limited opportunities to participate in tennis yearround. Additionally, the business model based on The Rogers Cup contributes to the perpetuation of certain characteristics that reinforce the status quo. Perpetuation of a cycle that focuses on commercial activities and professional success to fund player development and participation may also reinforce issues related to class-base structures and media representation. Tennis Canadas existing partnerships provide stability. Existing sponsors, particularly Rogers Communications, and the organizations ownership of The Rogers Cup, provide the potential for long-term revenue generation.
77
6 Conclusions
The purpose of this study was to investigate how strategic foresight could aid in strategic planning. The research demonstrated that the use of a strategic foresight framework provided value and structure to the analysis of a preferred future state. It also uncovered noteworthy factors that were relevant to successfully achieving the prescribed future.
Photo by Robert S. Donovan (Flickr), available under
cc
78
79
6.1 Key Findings

The key ndings are consolidated into a number of categories that are explained in more detail. They are as follows:
Agency who has role, responsibility, and ability
to affect change; Mega-drivers mitigating impacts to ensure preferred future can be reached; Technology positive and negative effects for governance and human capacity; Pubic perception longstanding issues with perception versus actual conditions; Qualitative analysis lack of ethnographic research to expand quantitative measures.
including sport and recreational activities. The importance of maintaining healthy lifestyles will increase in coming decades; as our population ages, healthcare costs will strain provinces nances. Promoting active lifestyles in the aging population lessens the burden on health care services. Encouraging participation in sport, particularly sports that can be played throughout a persons life, is part of a strategy to promote healthy lifestyles. To achieve this outcome, all levels of government, sports agencies, education and health care must be committed to designing and implementing a new, innovative strategy. Sporting institutions may need to pressure government to fulll their obligations to uphold public wellbeing. Addressing Mega-drivers The enduring nature of mega-drivers affects a social systems ability to change and specically, to reduce the lasting, negative effects, which are compromising tennis ability to be open, accessible and equitable for all Canadians. However, the scope and complexity of mega-drivers tends to make them wicked problems; it may not be possible to achieve solutions using current capabilities.
responsibility for programs may gain the momentum necessary to eliminate the negative consequences of existing social problems. Media and advertising also have important roles in modifying the public perception of tennis and promoting new forms of athletic, cultural or gender norms. It is in the best interest of tennis and Tennis Canada to promote visible diversity, to address inclusivity concerns, and to guide media portrayals of athletes (particularly women), thus helping to reshape public perceptions, and making tennis even more attractive to a demographically and culturally diverse Canada. Overcoming the social issues still impacting potential participation in tennis will help to maintain the economic model for Tennis Canada, whereby success at the top levels provides a driver of revenue as audience supports commercial activities, and the revenue generated in turn funds player development. By reducing barriers to access, participation can continue to be critical to ensure economic stability in the preferred future.
human enhancement. Providing coherent and up to date rules and guidelines, while allowing technology to help advance sports, will require governing bodies to balance the potential benets of new technologies against their potential drawbacks. The ethical implications of human enhancement are of critical importance to the nature of sport. Tennis will undoubtedly be forced to grapple with the ramications of new biotechnology and genetic manipulation, particularly for professional tours. The nancial incentive of success at the professional level provides an attraction, which may lead some players to consider biological or genetic manipulation. Implicit barriers are exacerbated as only those with means will have access to new technologies, much in the same way as current training, coaching, medical resources, and facilities are currently limited to those that can afford them. The World Anti-Doping Association (WADA) has put forward arguments against the use of performance enhancing drugs. The issue of preserving the spirit of sport remains at the centre of the position against doping wherein the integrity of the sport is persevered as pure and natural. The argument has its critics whom point to the nature of sport changing in modern society and athletes being able to make informed choices about their own physical condition. Savulescu et. al (2004) argue this point,
Agency The preferred future state of tennis identied by Tennis Canada, Sport Canada and Canadian Heritage emphasizes fair and equitable access, sensitivity to Canadas rich and diverse cultural and ethnic composition, and the expression of our national character. The federal government has the responsibility to ensure that all Canadians have access to services. Sport Canada has the responsibility of channelling resources to particular sports and recreational activities in order to achieve the stated goal. Tennis Canadas vision is to promote tennis throughout Canadian society. Therefore, it is clear that the there is a common mandate and a desire to make the preferred future a reality; and yet, the processes driving the change are complex and difcult to implement.
Social issues, such as the class-based economic structure, race and ethnicity barriers, and gender inequality, inuence participation in tennis, but are also systemic challenges that affect all of Canadian society. As a result, existing practices designed to counter these negative issues in tennis may be insufcient to eradicate such deeply rooted issues. The This study provided evidence of the challenges responsibility for change involves multiple actors on presented by current social issues, and how the question the local, regional, national and global levels. of agency and responsibility affects change. There are overlapping and contradictory agendas among Tennis Canada has a number of strategies designed the levels at government that determine funding for to engage communities and increase participation. sporting organizations. For example, federal programs Increasing participation is necessary to ensure the to encourage Canadian diversity, equity and inclusion sustainability of player development, from grassroots are limited by provincial budgetary restrictions, and entry to international competition. However, these reduced funding in areas of social assistance. In sports, efforts may not be sufcient to alter the dynamics of the government promotes high-performance success the system. In fact, such broad-scale issues require in international competitions, while reducing physical comprehensive efforts, including policy design, that education and tness in schools. The result is a create measures to modify system dynamics, including confused state, where legislative and budget priorities the reorganization of resources, facilities and access may be in conict and efforts to implement change do within the club-system and the promotion of tennis in not attain the expected results. Canada. Key stakeholders (i.e. government, tennis associations, tennis clubs), working together to establish shared
Technology Technological advances are an undeniable driver of modern society. The advent of personal data collection, big data and the ability to determine causal effects with increasing certainty may alter training, coaching and the development of players and programs in tennis, and other sports. Embracing emerging technologies and Humans are not horses or dogs. We make choices and their applications may establish Canada as a leader in exercise our own judgment. We choose what kind of bioscience training and management techniques. For training to use and how to run our race. We can display example, technology may lead to more decentralized courage, determination, and wisdom. We are not program delivery, reducing the effects of distance and ogged by a jockey on our back but drive ourselves. It creating new strategies for long-term development. is this judgment that competitors exercise when they Furthermore, the use of qualitative research coupled choose diet, training, and whether to take drugs. We with quantitative and predictive modeling that uses can choose what kind of competitor to be, not just big data will provide richer analytics on the issues affecting tennis. Emerging, innovative analytic models through training, but through biological manipulation. will provide new methods to analyze training, coaching Far from being against the spirit of sport, biological manipulation embodies the human spiritthe capacity and player development techniques. The results will to improve ourselves on the basis of reason and encourage better management, communication and judgment. (p. 667) monitoring in Canadian tennis. The ITF, professional tours and national tennis federations have a vested interest in safeguarding tennis as a clean sport. Advances in technology can present signicant challenges for sport in the form of the need to police players to maintain a level playing eld and to determine answers to ethics surrounding The complexity of the argument also contains an underlying economic motivator wherein maintaining the integrity of sport has considerable monetary value. Public perception of a sports clean-ness can sway popularity in turn affecting commercial interests.
The federal government has both nancial and social incentives to provide support for social services, 80
81
Public Perception of Tennis This study has revealed a gap between the public perception of tennis that it is an elite sport, requiring deep nancial resources and the reality, which is that entry into tennis is low-cost. The public perception is fuelled by the med ia and by the sports legacy, but in fact, entry into tennis generally does not require vast resources. The expert interviews shared a common theme that entry into the sport was possible without major nancial investment. Daniel Nestor, Sylvain Bruneau and Alekandra Wozniak spoke of being brought to the game through personal connections (a neighbour or family member), and using makeshift facilities, such as gymnasiums, to play year-round (Sylvain Bruneau, personal interview, 2012). Doug Coombs (personal interview, 2012), VP of Marketing for Wilson, said that his connection to the sport began with little nancial outlay. Working with the media, government agencies and private companies to promote positive models of success within tennis is one of Tennis Canadas mandates. Successful Canadian professional tennis players are necessary to create public identication with the sport, this becomes a source of national pride and motivates people to play tennis. Inspiring a new generation through individual and collective successes in international showcases, such as the Davis and Fed Cup is an important part of sustainability. This success also creates opportunities to raise awareness of social issues and highlight the existing measures by Tennis Canada and provincial tennis associations to redress the negative biases in Canadian society. For example, tennis is one of the few sports where participation levels between men and women are balanced, and professional pay equity is a reality. Presenting positive messages of social change across media, government and social programs will establish tennis, not only as a top sport in Canada, but also as representative of a desirable future for Canadian society.
Acknowledging that perceptions, culture, and social barriers inuence a sport can lead to better program designs that address the needs of different communities. For example, providing transportation, food4, or social services may be as important as providing equipment and facilities to an underserviced community.
6.2 Business Benets of Strategic Foresight

Strategic foresight has a number of benets for business strategy and long-term planning. The research methodology provides an illustration of how methods can be combined together to produce additional information to be considered in subsequent planning exercises. The following section details the benets as applied to the research study: Broader scope using a horizon scan, trends, and driver analysis to move beyond conventional analysis; Future facing SWOT combining common business tools with future conditions; Adaptable approach modied methods as conditions emerge; Foresight and quantitative analysis combining qualitative, future facing techniques and quantitative measures.

A Broader Scope for Investigation A strategic foresight framework benets businesses by broadening the range of inputs into an analysis, including business activities that are not commonly used in conventional strategic planning. A systematic expansion of fact-nding means that as new elements emerge, they can be integrated into the framework, giving the analysis exibility, while maintaining robustness. The foresight methodology permits emerging new conditions to be tested and evaluated against existing priorities. For an organization, this Qualitative Research divergent style of analysis encourages a culture of This studys literature review exposed a lack of problem solving. qualitative data and analysis in previous research. The factors that contribute to audience engagement, digital By not predetermining the parameters of the analysis, inuence and community development cannot be identied solely through quantitative measures. For 4. In lower income neighbourhoods, issues relate to food security are more acute. Children may not have adequate food available within their homes. Proexample, qualitative research methods are needed grams that not only promote tennis, but also provide additional nutrition, simito investigate the behavioural characteristics that lar to the Breakfast Clubs of Canada, not only bridges public goodwill, but also provide needed physical and emotional support for underprivileged children. inuence motivation and individual preferences. 82
The problem of how to simplify a complex, interdeterminant collection of activities, processes and outcomes, so that they can be effectively modeled and used to make long-term decisions is common to many business models. Understanding how potential delays and barriers might affect strategic objectives increases the probability of success, as contingencies can be developed. However, external conditions are not static, and their relationships overlap with other competing forces. Understanding the connection between neighbouring systems and where an organization can exert its agency is an important factor in an organizations ability to affect change. The concept of actors is different than that of stakeholders, who are typically treated as static entities. Actors can actively change a situation or generate new conditions. For example, understanding how federal and provincial Addition strategic foresight methods horizon scan, trend analysis, driver identication, and implications governments determine resource allocation may allow an actor to identify services gaps that an organization, allow the traditional scope of business analysis to such as Tennis Canada, can supply. be expanded. Using the implications to construct a future narrative and conduct a future facing SWOT Understanding the uid and dynamic nature of external analysis also illustrates how techniques can be used in combination to provide new inputs for consideration in systems leads to a better assessment of tactics. Observing these dynamics over time, allows actors to the strategic planning process. identify the challenges to their success. Viewing Externals as Dynamic Systems An Adaptive Method Many conventional business analysis techniques have The Three Horizon model used in this research was the difculty recognizing changing external conditions as uid, dynamic actors that are part of a broader system. most appropriate model to accommodate emerging new opportunities and potential challenges may be given additional attention, whether they are related to planning objectives or mitigating risk. Foresight analysis encourages an organization to suspend rigid thinking patterns and information silos, and to move away from the thats not possible category towards what happens if. As a structured, proven process to investigate and plan for future possibilities, it instils decision makers with greater condence in its outcomes. The approach helps to create a future-thinking mindset, and encourages staff from all business areas to engage in foresight projects. A future-thinking organizational culture focuses on possibilities, not the status quo and this adds to the passion within the organization to commit to its mission and values.
83
parameters as part of the process of discovery. The research methodology did not specify a particular foresight model; it dened a process wherein different models could be evaluated before use. The Three Horizons model proved to be the best t due to the following conditions: a known future, preferred state; uncertainty concerning the conditions and processes required to establish the preferred state; a pervasive legacy system exerting inuence on present conditions; an incomplete transition from the legacy system to the proposed future; emerging processes to bring about change.

for strategic decision-making. The literature review examined the assumptions, limitations and biases of the previous studies, which could compromise their usefulness. The horizon scan widened the scope of the problem nding and decision making to build condence in the accuracy and relevance of the results. For example, examining a studys methodology may pinpoint deciencies that can be overcome with current data or new analysis. Moreover, using qualitative research in conjunction with quantitative measurements allows for concrete measures and descriptive interpretations to be combined, leading to a more complete understanding of conditions. Determining the effects and implications of the identied trends and drivers on future outcomes, particularly their potential negative or positive repercussions on business activities, is an important part of a foresight analysis. For example, the current global economic uncertainty presents advantages and hazards to Tennis Canada, such as changes to professional tour tournament schedules. Assessing the inuence of trends (10, 20 and 50 years into the future) allows decision makers to imagine how a business might respond to these trends. This may lead to new pathways to achieve a new outcome (opportunity) or avert a risk (threat). In this study, the use of SWOT analysis to assess conditions that may occur 10-15 years in the future is an example of how existing business tools may be used in conjunction with strategic foresight techniques, enriching the process and leading to more valuable outcomes. Using forecasting within a strategic foresight analysis
6.3 Additional Research
As the project progressed, different research techniques were introduced or removed depending on the changing circumstances. The exible structure permitted the use of other analysis techniques, such as forecasting or qualitative and ethnographic research. In the case study, a SWOT analysis was used to analysis a possible future state, a technique already employed by Tennis Canada. Mutual Benets of Strategic Foresight and Forecasting This study assembled a number of methods in a strategic foresight frame, to gather, analyze and synthesize data. The aim was to provide recommendations for future planning. The literature review and the horizon scan investigated previous research, assessing the appropriateness of the ndings
cc Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial license. Photo by Morisawa81, Flickr
Including external stakeholders, such as community partners, industry experts, sponsors and donors, and operational staff, in this process may also be worthwhile, as their specic knowledge may offer insight into tactics and the deployment of programs. A foresight process should always involve multiple authors The scope of this study is limited by the research and consider all stakeholders, who will each represent question and its application. The techniques used to different areas of uncertainty. For example, it would engage experts and analyze causal conditions within be valuable for the collective group to consider the the system surrounding tennis were not exhaustive, implications of Rogers pulling out as major sponsor or presenting an opportunity for further research. The the downgrading of The Rogers Cup. What would the following section provides detail to areas in which revenue implications be for Tennis Canada or the tennis further research may be benecial. industry in Canada? The scenarios would be similar to the story provided for the SWOT analysis above, but Stakeholder engagement continuing engagement they would be collaboratively crafted, and based on through workshops, stakeholder cooperation, and agreed upon inputs and conditions. strategic planning; Policy design collaborative approach to harness The strategic foresight methodology provides a strengths of multiple agencies; framework to explore the changing demographics of Exploration of Big Data new technologic Canadian society, and the new barriers and issues of advancements in data modeling and big data identication or organization. It is crucial that Tennis analysis; Canada develops policy objectives and tactics to Ethics and human manipulation understanding counter regional disparities, address the specic needs ethical discussion surrounding human biotechnical of cultural groups, and accommodate new requirements, and genetic enhancement; as Canadas demographics change. Ethnographic International tennis federations comparative research, using primary research techniques, engages analysis of tennis federations looking at strengths the studied groups, helping to reduce the barriers and weaknesses in relation to future conditions; between subjects and researchers, and encourages Quadruple bottom line and Sustainability trust and sensitivity to a communitys unique character. business analysis using a sustainability model As the vision presented by Canadian Heritage, Sport moving beyond economic and environmental Canada and Tennis Canada has not currently been measurement. achieved, new procedures are warranted. Foresight-informed Strategic Planning Stakeholder Engagement Tennis Canada provided the researcher with exceptional access to key leaders within the organization. The research was designed to understand Tennis Canadas situation within the system of Canadian tennis, and to use this as a context to frame the study. The results of the study could be developed in additional workshops and working sessions and used to guide strategic planning. A process, such as wind tunneling, is a logical next step. In this process, current strategic Government Policy Design Healthcare, Population and Funding Policy design emerged as an important method to manage the challenges and issues of Canadas changing character. Policies are necessary to counter trends that reinforce inequality and the uneven distribution of resources in society and in sport. Safeguarding sport through monitoring, regulation and enforcement requires rm guidelines, grounded in research and analysis. Further research into the policies, programs and agencies that administer sport could help the
may be another fruitful combination. Forecastings focus on quantitative measures to predict future possibilities tends to limit its ability to account for variable conditions and unpredictable changes within the research frame. Foresights ability to accommodate uncertainty alleviates this challenge. Combining the exibility of foresight with forecastings evidencebased measurements could improve both methods.
positions and objectives are tested against future state conditions. Groups in workshops can collectively generate scenarios that consider the interactions between various critical, uncertain and impactful concerns and current strategies.
84
85
federal government improve its promotion of grassroots participation in tennis. Better policy design may lead to increased coordination between the federal, provincial and municipal programs that fund sports, and promote healthier and more active lifestyles. Identifying the new demands of the aging population is one area in which strategic foresight could be used to design and promote effective human-centric programs that improve quality of life. Modeling possible future conditions based on research into healthcare policy may identify the relationships between long-term sports activity and healthcare concerns, including physical, emotional and social wellbeing.
bringing issues to the forefront of public opinion and legislative discussion. There is urgency to advance the dialog before challenges force unprepared and reactive responses. Moreover, reactionary or shortsighted actions will not address the complexity compounding potential adverse effects.
International Tennis Federation Comparison Comparative analysis of other national tennis federations may yield important outcomes. In particular, identifying alternative approaches to fund national programs and player development may enrich Tennis Canadas current business model. The research study identied that other federations have had greater success producing professional players, and understanding their strategies, training methods, player selection, and infrastructure may provide insights to Exploring Big Data and Technology improve conditions for Canadian tennis. Additionally, One exciting area of research is big data and its highlighting Tennis Canadas institutional strengths may possible uses in training, talent monitoring and acquisition, and coaching. Research to improve training, serve as a model for other Canadian national sporting agencies or international federations to full their own nutrition and skills development will continue to be mandates. If Tennis Canada is able to meet their desired a focus for sports science, and is an area in which big vision, the success may also increase the ability to data may present real value. The potential to predict lobby federal sources to increase funding. causal factors leading to injuries prior to damage (physical, psychological or emotion) safeguards players and help ensure that players can maximize their potential. Using new forms of data models and Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial license. Photo by y.caradec, Flickr analytics will be a signicant part of sport in the next decades.
cc
Quadruple Bottom Line and Sustainability Sustainability is an important consideration for future business strategy. Sustainability was identied as underlying postulate in the research to investigate future business viability. Researching the relationship between Tennis Canadas business model and a quadruple-bottom-line may be an appropriate to evaluate current activities transitioning towards the future. The quadruple bottom line (QBL) identies social, economic, social and ecological factors to develop a truly sustainable business strategy. Although the implied need for long-term business viability is predicated on sustainability, addressing the complexity of supplementary business constraints may be valuable in determining which business activities show be preserved and other to be discarded.
change within the system surrounding tennis and its cumulative effect within the proposed future timeframe. National Consortium of Sporting Associations Tennis Canada establishes a consortium with other national sporting agencies to lobby government for funding and establish long-term research commitment. Present Readiness Medium Future Impact High Association with other national sporting agencies beyond Sport Canada allows for peripheral observations of activities and practices useful for exerting political inuence or developing new economic models. Comparative analysis and research of Canadian sporting structures may detect gaps or overlaps in levels of government and may promote sharing between sporting organizations. For example, public outreach techniques used by Canada Basketball may be appropriate for tennis, and therefore developing a stronger partnership between Tennis Canada and Canada Basketball may identify a common objective resulting in shared resources and increased growth for both sports. Enables Collective discussions with federal government to harmonize sporting development, removing redundancy and aiding in cross sport innovation. Comparative research shared between sporting organizations to identify social, economic and political barriers to sport participation and longterm development strategies Barriers Momentum to establish collaboration between organizations and competing mandates that maintain isolated areas of speciality. Extent of inuence to guide government in policy decisions Harmonizing Federal, Provincial, & Municipal Support Tennis Canada acts as focal point to harmonize mandate and funding for tennis from all government sources with particular emphasis on public facility construction. Present Readiness Low Future Impact High
6.4 Recommendations
Meeting a preferred future is not an assured outcome. Rather conditions and processes act collectively to generate prescribed results. The research study methodology is designed to generate outcomes that can be useful in further strategic planning by working collaboratively with stakeholders to prioritize tactics and corroborate the usefulness of strategic objectives. The study results point to specic implementations in key areas. The following section states recommendations for Tennis Canadas positioned as suggestions to overcome obstacles inhibiting attaining a preferred future goal. The goal is to facilitate discussion to imagine possibilities designed to help enhance the connection between tennis and Canadian society.
Ethics and Human Manipulation Discussion about the ethics of human enhancement and biotechnology is already occurring. Advances in biotechnology, genetics and nanotechnology may change the face of modern sport and the idea of what it means to be an athlete. The ethical relationships between technology and sport and society, may also be related to existing barriers and social concerns; for example, the notion of what is an unfair advantage or a disability is blurring as advanced technology allows athletes previously deemed disabled to compete in able-bodied games. Additional research may identify core issues in the conversation surrounding human enhancement that are pertinent for sport and its related activities. There is considerable research already being conducted within the eld of sport ethics. A coordinated effort from existing institutions, agencies and researchers may provide the necessary collaboration to raise attention, 86
6.4.1 Strategic Partners

Tennis Canada has strong strategic partners and the need to assure continued connection to external stakeholders is an important concern in meeting a preferred future. Enhancing Tennis Canadas existing relationships or developing new partnerships provides momentum for directed change in specic areas where current business activities may be vulnerable. Each of the recommendations indicates a present readiness that refers to the likelihood of implementation based on current situations and Tennis Canadas business model. The future impact indicates the strength of
87
There is need to establish new forms of governance to better integrate sport with social advocacy that is responsive to community needs and active in improving public wellbeing. Tennis Canada has an opportunity to serve as a central connector to imagine a more effective activation of funding for tennis: a responsibility that is shared between federal, provincial and municipal governments. A consolidation of effort streamlines overlapping mandates and jurisdictional redundancy. Harmonizing provincial and federal interests becomes important for public identication with tennis as a true national sport, wherein players at any level identify with a national identity, rather than a regional distinction. Moreover, harmonizing funding aids efciency and ensures a balanced, committed, and directed effort to overcome socio-economic barriers and provide greater access for local communities throughout Canada. A consortium should include levels of government as well as sponsors, non-prots and sporting agencies to nd common ground and develop consistent policy in combatting regional disparity and inequity. A collective approach would function as a policy innovator similar to the Canada-Ontario-Toronto Memorandum of Understanding (MOU), which streamlines policy decisions for immigration in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA)5. Enables Removal of redundant and inefcient processes and mandates that constrict funding. Focus on facility construction in public domain similar to hockey rink construction where combination of public and sponsor money ensures public access. Barriers Difculty in getting all levels of government to coordinate efforts and discussions. Signicant shift in governance model. Rebranding Provincial Tennis Associations Tennis Canadas brand is established as premiere brand for tennis in Canada and provincial tennis associations are incorporated into brand structure. Present Readiness Medium Future Impact Medium 88
The discontinuity of provincial tennis associations (PTA) and Tennis Canada as national brand needs to be addressed. Although strong partnership relations exist with provincial tennis associations, congruency with a national presence is more desirable. The result does not diminish the need and role of the PTAs, but provides continuity for tennis players, communities and supporting professionals to promote tennis while ensuring connection of tennis to national identity. A rebranding of Tennis Canada and PTAs may function similar to Nikes brand structure whereby Tennis Canada serves as master brand (i.e. Nike) and provinces are afliated using the master brand for consistency (i.e. Nike Golf, Nike Running). For example, the Ontario Tennis Association (OTA) becomes Tennis Canada Ontario. The result helps to remove the ambiguity in communications for all tennis related activities, as Tennis Canada becomes the hub for relevant information regarding competition, from children and youth through to professional. The result is stronger identication of players with a national presence, and professional success as a direct relationship of Tennis Canadas mandate. Furthermore, digital communications can be centralized through one brand reducing the confusion of where the most relevant information for player development may be found, helping to promote a unied message across Canada regardless of region where the player is most active. Enables Consistent communication strategy for tennis development in Canada. Removal of redundancy and ambiguity in player development providing a single targeted mandate. Barriers Provincial barriers and legacy of PTAs in Canada. Funding relationships between provinces and PTAs has revenue implications.
5. The MOU establishes a framework for the federal, provincial and municipal governments to discuss matters related to immigration and settlement in the City of Toronto. It focuses on improving outcomes for immigrants through several areas of interest to all three governments, including citizenship and civic engagement, and facilitating access to employment, services, and educational and training opportunities (Citizen and Immigration Canada, 2006).
Barriers Determining most appropriate community to pilot Sport has a long tradition as social connector and new style of program. facilitator of change, which is exemplied by efforts of Funding and resources to design and manage sporting professionals giving back to a community via additional program activities. the sport where they achieved public recognition and nancial success. Tennis Canada has activities working Adult Program Development to help build communities. Therefore, a commitment Tennis Canada coordinates adult development to promote social capital is an appropriate extension. programs designed to deliver family support for The effort provides greater connection across a wider higher levels of competition and connect adults to cross-section of society helping to grow sport and the sport. increase its reach across Canada. Investing in social capital becomes a structural response to address Present Readiness High inequity. Decker et al (2001) dene social capital as Future Impact Medium [Social capital] is about the value of social networks, bonding similar people and bridging between diverse Support for disadvantaged children is an important people, with norms of reciprocity (as cited by Claridge, consideration for tennis development. However, 2004). The goal of the investment is to strengthen addressing the needs and concerns of primary ties through communities and promote tennis as a caregivers such as providing support networks mechanism for change. within particular communities is perhaps of greater consequence. Providing logistical support is critical to ensure primary caregivers have the opportunity to Little Aces Extension Program continue their children in tennis regards of nancial Tennis Canada uses the success of Little Aces in constraints. Moreover, there is an opportunity to promoting tennis to also address areas of social connect primary caregivers to tennis the sport if one inequity and personal development. does not already exist. Developing passion for tennis in adults (supporting their children) may increase Present Readiness High the likelihood of children and youth continuing their Future Impact Medium participation. Leveraging the Little Aces program as a catalyst to The needs of adult caregivers are diverse and require address social issues beyond participation, passion additional research to determine individual, local, and fun, such as personal or social development. and regional concerns in order to design exible and Capitalizing on the expertise of established customizable approaches to support them. The variety organizations, such as Right to Play, presents an of programs may range from simple transportation opportunity to design specic programs using tennis as a facilitator of social development enhancing public and access, to entertainment, socialization, and relationship building. wellbeing. Right to Play has a proven track record in international social and community development. The Enables possibility of using their program delivery adjusted for Ability for primary caregivers to continue support a Canadian context could provide an interesting and of children in tennis into higher competitive levels. alternative approach to bridge social inequity within Fosters passion and connection of primary Canada. caregivers to the sport that their children are playing. Enables Partnering with established, prominent agency to Barriers promote social wellbeing and personal growth. Creates social dialog between communities and Financial cost of supporting programs requires new sports beyond conventional methods. funding sources (e.g. philanthropic donor long-term commitment). Attracting participants with potential that are not able to afford existing programs and academies.
6.4.3 Social Innovations
89
Club InitiativesSocial Programs & Inter-club Leagues Tennis Canada facilitates design and development of programs to provide disadvantaged children the ability to participate in local clubs at minimal or no cost. Additionally, Tennis Canada supports an Interclub league at a semi-professional level focusing on local representation. Present Readiness Medium Future Impact Medium Local tennis clubs are an important factor in increasing participation in tennis and support for year round player development. The challenge is clubs operate as private and semi-private enterprises not necessarily focused on social capital and community growth. Tennis Canadas relationship with clubs throughout Canada provides a foundation that can be built upon. Establishing social programs for clubs requires a nancial outlay and will reduce revenue in the short term. However, the benets from an enhanced corporate image as that is responsible to social wellbeing will lead to greater public exposure and possible new forms of funding from sponsors, donors, and government. Formal partnering with Tennis Canada may help smooth nancial fears from clubs governors while displaying a long-term development strategy to create stronger community ties beneting tennis and a clubs nancial future.
Barriers Logistics in managing new form of competitive league structure may need focus in major metropolitan areas. Cost of establishing true academy structure may be beyond nancial means for most clubs. Social Agency and Multiculturalism Tennis Canada promotes diversity through marketing initiatives coupling international professionals with ethnic communities within Canada. Present Readiness High Future Impact Medium Canada establishes part of its national identity through the promotion of multiculturalism. In fact, immigration and multiculturalism has been a major force in the development of Canadian tennis. Exploring the relationship of ethnicity and sport may also provide alternatives to a singular focus on a national identity for tennis, especially for audience development. Embracing and promoting connection with countries of origins through establish local communities may offer advantage to encouraging tennis. For example, using Novak Djokovics prestige as world number one to galvanize connection with Canadas Serbian community or Li Na as representative of China and the Chinese community in Canada.
Data Capture and Analysis for Player Development Tennis Canada embraces innovative monitoring and data capture as integral part of training and player development. Present Readiness Low Future Impact High Tennis Canada has an opportunity to develop longterm adoption of new technology into traditional development and training practices. Accessing new models for physical, emotional and mental wellbeing fosters an accountable, proactive, and sensitive development style to account for all of a players needs. Developing new partnerships and sponsorship opportunities with companies such as Nike align social and player development, with innovative companies at the forefront of sport advancement. Adopting a commitment technology may lead to better monitoring of a wider set of responses during training and may uncover new methods to address player burn out and player instabilities.
Present Readiness Medium Future Impact Medium Social media and digital engagement is an important strategy to ensure the future of sport. Techniques employed by other industry sectors to secure fan engagement often centre on involved community members to drive conversation. Often, engagement requires an access to a community that cannot be driven from a corporate institution using a hierarchical structure as conversations are not structured and cannot be tightly controlled. Concentrating on seeded youth led initiatives involving specic, highly active community members will help drive the conversation around tennis. Tennis Canada participates as an involved member of the community but not forcing the conversation. Co-led initiatives using prominent media and industry partners may also help raise prole and connection to audience. Enables New forms of connection and communication with untapped audiences. Progressive relationships with digital communications and social interests of next generation.
Enables Formalizing an interclub league with nancial backing Promotes Canadian diversity through tennis and and prize money is beyond the scope of inter-club connects superstars with communities. leagues presently. With a league that has momentum Helps drives tennis promotion through and prestige and an incentive of participating in Tennis identication with hero. Canadas national program may help attract the best athletes and players to tennis. In turn, clubs can serve Barriers as academies for player development. The club based Commitment of professional tennis players to system for soccer in Europe served as the primary participate. mechanism to develop young talent, grooming them Not Canadian success focus detracting from for professional careers. A similar long-term strategy accomplishments of Canadian professional tennis could be employed based on connection with a localized players. competitive league. The academy model provides a mechanism to reduce socio-economic barriers as the academies could offer scholarships or varied membership pricing for top prospects to help reduce exclusion based on nancial means. The commitment to technological innovation is arguably the most difcult and uncertain area for sport as the Enables speed and rate of change in technology is difcult for Incentive for clubs to have more active role in established institutions to maintain abreast let alone competitive player development in Canada. maintain a leadership role.
Tennis Canada also has the opportunity to provide open access to training processes helping to democratize the development of players by providing a reciprocal cycle of feedback from coaches, players and interested parties all capturing valuable data to analyze. For example, developing a training program titled Train like Barriers Community development requires continuous Milos detailing Miloss training techniques distributed scrutiny and in not assured. by Tennis Canada. The delivery and infrastructure costs Conversation opens possibility of criticism and could be managed through partnerships from sponsors negative sentiment. like Nike whose interests are focused on technology and information gathering. Enables Tennis Canada as leader in technological innovation for player development. New style of partnership with sponsors centred on data and information sharing. Barriers Professional commitment and priority nature of training regimens. Transparency and open access requires changes to culture of professional sport. Youth Led Digital Engagement Tennis Canada commits to developing youth led and seeded programs to drive social connection through digital platforms.
6.4.4 Revenue diversication

Tennis Canadas relationship to The Rogers Cup is an uncommon funding situation. The Rogers Cup success as a Masters 1000 level / WTA Premiere tournament (and related commercial activities) provide the majority of revenue for Tennis. However, the reliance also constitutes a vulnerable nancial position if The Rogers Cup is downgraded or lost altogether. The loss of revenue would restrict funding for player development initiatives. Lastly, the relationship between economic drivers, successful player development, and enhanced participation contains a tension, as the nancial aspirations are reliant on systemic structure that
6.4.3 Technology
90
91
perpetuates limitations to access. Diversifying sources of revenue for Tennis Canada is an important consideration to ensure long-term viability and exibility in manoeuvring through socio-economic challenges to a preferred future. Accessing Ultra, High-End Donors Tennis Canada develops specic programs to entice additional ultra high-end donors to contribute to programs and tennis development in Canada. Present Readiness Low Future Impact Medium Engaging ultra high-end donors is a growing focus for philanthropy in general. Providing offerings that cater to the interests of donors willing to contribute millions of dollars is a key strategy for many charitable organizations resulting in an increasingly competitive market. However, securing committed donors willing to contribute at a high level over a long-term would establish an additional source of revenue. The offerings need a level of exclusivity that is exceptional in order to attract and retain such a commitment. Foundrie 47s purchase of AK47s from war zones and conversion of the metal into exclusive, high-end jewellery is an example of this style of offering. To gain access to purchasing parties, a donor has to be invited and possess considerable means beyond the reach of even upper-class donors. Enables New personal connection to tennis and exclusive offering to motivate continued commitment. New sources of revenue to help reshape existing revenue model.
Present Readiness High Future Impact High Adding a new tournament to Tennis Canadas existing roster of tournaments is a logical extension. The commitment to a new tournament, either by increasing the importance of an existing tournament or committing to purchase of a new tournament requires considerable capital investment. However, the addition would increase Canadas importance as a global player in tennis. As Michael Downey, CEO of Tennis Canada points out, there are possible Canadian locations where this could be achieved: Vancouver is a big enough market that it should have an ATP or WTA event (Michael Downey, personal interview, 2012). Additionally, increasing the prominence of other tournaments, such as an ITF Seniors Tour is an alternative option that is sensitive to Canadas changing demographics. Enables Promotes new regional centre for tennis in Canada. New sources of revenue to help reshape existing revenue model. Barriers Capital costs associated with purchase or promotion of new tournament in Canada. Necessity to attract the top professional players to a new tournament to help ensure its success.
leading to irrelevancy and decline. The study used strategic foresight techniques to guide the analysis of reaching a preferred future and illustrated its complementary use in conventional strategic planning practices. Strategic foresight provided a frame to widen the scope for strategic business planning; in particular, it moved beyond forecasting and prediction to evaluate emerging trends and to consider their implications on future business activities. The study employed a 10-15 year time horizon to extend strategic planning beyond the conventional 4-5 year planning that currently informs Tennis Canadas decision-making. The Three Horizons proved to be a more appropriate strategic foresight model than the 2x2 matrix or Cone of Plausibility models. The Three Horizons structure guided the research, but was exible enough to incorporate appropriate methods as required. As the known preferred state (Horizon 3) was articulated in the mission and vision of Tennis Canada, Sport Canada and Canadian Heritage, the analysis focused on the present conditions and their ability to manifest the future state. There was less emphasis on the emergence and development of possible futures, as the future target for Canadian tennis was identied. Although a 2x2 matrix approach can be modied to image a preferred state, the approach is more complex as it uses four scenarios based on critical uncertainties. The Three Horizons is a simpler structure that can also be integrated with a SWOT analysis in a coherent manner, which was suitable for the intended audience. Unlike conventional business analysis, such as SWOT, TOWS, PEST, PESTLE or gap analysis, the Three Horizons model makes it possible to incorporate external systemic pressures into the evaluation of future states. Systematically assessing future conditions and the effects of current activities provides a method to suspend focus on a current state, allowing for greater collaboration, communication and imagination based on agreed uncertainty. The result is a greater understanding of risks and opportunities in a possible future. The SWOT was an appropriate tool to communicate the outcomes of the study, as Tennis Canada already uses this technique. The study showed that achieving a preferred state, where all Canadians experience equitable access to sport and tennis, will require a considerable
commitment from Tennis Canada, all levels of government, sponsors and key stakeholders. The main efforts must be centred in the following areas:
Agency identication of roles and responsibilities,
funding commitments Funding sources Tennis Canada will succeed with the help of partners and sponsors Technology embrace global leadership role, use technology above and beyond the normal models The case study of Tennis Canada, which is a primary stakeholder, provided a focal point for understanding and evaluating the system surrounding Canadian tennis. The study evaluated whether or not Tennis Canada could achieve a shared-vision of inclusion, access and equity that promoted the values and sentiments of Canadas national character, and was aligned with Sport Canada and Canadian Heritage. There is evidence that persistent social themes and mega-drivers, continue to hamper efforts to realize this vision, and new, innovative processes and activities may be required to reduce the impact of these social, cultural and economic barriers. Sport can engage minds and bodies, and provide a social outlet that is benecial to a participants physical, mental and emotional wellbeing. This study examined tennis position within Canadian culture, at present and into the future. The study serves as an illustration of how strategic foresight framing can help in the planning of strategic options over long-term horizons. It is particularly suitable for medium-sized businesses that are typically focused on much shorter planning cycles. Ultimately, this study has performed a preliminary investigation on the topic and will hopefully encourage further study that will contribute to the longevity of tennis in Canada.
6.5 Summary
The research study focuses on topics related to Tennis Canada and its role in Canadian tennis. The study illustrated the use of a case study to determine Barriers operational activities for Tennis Canada as a medium Highly competitive market for ultra, high-end sized business. The research also looked at the benets donors and usually requires existing passion for of using a strategic foresight approach to advance tennis to motivate commitment. conventional practices for strategic planning. Within Focuses attention on exclusivity, which is one the study, the results identied a tension between of the barriers that Tennis Canada is trying to the existing structure of tennis and its ability to mitigate. appropriately reect Canadas national character. Tennis Canadas vision is also stated on concepts of inclusion, Adding New High Level Tournaments diversity, and multiculturalism reecting Canadian Tennis Canada commits to purchasing a new Canadian society. However, tenniss legacy contributes barriers professional tournament at ATP Masters / WTA and restrictions to having tennis fully be representative Premier or International level. of Canadas diversity. An inability to reach the stated vision also could inhibit the prominence of tennis 92
cc
Photo by sacks08, Flickr Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial license.
93
7 Cited Works
Expert Interviews:
Pierre Lamarche Michael Downey Derek Strang Eugene Lapierre Doug Coombs Daniel Nestor Aleksandra Wozniak Sylvain Bruneau Amanda Quinn Thomas Breistein Michael Emmett Ace Tennis / Toronto Tennis City CEO Tennis Canada COO Tennis Canada VP Pro Tennis / Coupe Rogers VP Wilson Canada ATP Player WTA Player Fed Cup Captain Fit Chicks, Owner Training and Capacity Building Specialist Director of Tennis Development, Mayfair Clubs
Photo by Seor Codo (Flickr), available under
cc
94
95
Publications Andrews, D. L. (2004). Sport in the Late Capitalist Moment. In T. Slack (Ed.), Commercialization of Sport (pp. 3258). Florence, KY, USA: Routledge. Retrieved from http://site.ebrary.com/lib/oculocad/docDetail. action?docID=10162769 Arthur, B. (2012, August 8). Canadas failed Olympic gold rush heartbreaking but were OK | canada.com. Canada.Com. Retrieved January 1, 2013, from http://o.canada.com/2012/08/08/owning-the-podium-tougher-indeep-olympic-summer-eld/ Australian Sports Commission. (2011). Sexploitation. Retrieved December 8, 2012 from http://www.ausport.gov. au/participating/women/resources/issues/sexploitation. Baum, G. (2009, November 18). Crawford wants sport to be for all, not just the privileged. The Age. Retrieved January 1, 2013, from http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/society-and-culture/crawford-wants-sport-to-be-forall-not-just-the-privileged-20091118-il27.html Burrus, D. (2012, November 14). Daniel Burrus: 20 Game-Changing Technology Trends That Will Create Both Disruption and Opportunity. The Hufngton Post. Retrieved February 14, 2013, from http://www.hufngtonpost. com/daniel-burrus/20-gamechanging-technology-trends_b_2124924.html Canadian Heritage. (2012). Canadian Heritage - Vision and Mission. Government of Canada - Canadian Heritage. Retrieved September 14, 2012, from http://www.pch.gc.ca/eng/1310495889171 Canadian Heritage. (2005). Sport Excellence Strategy: Achieving Podium Results at Olympic and Paralympic Games. Ottawa, ON, Canada: Canadian Heritage. Retrieved from http://site.ebrary.com/lib/oculocad/docDetail. action?docID=10104229 The Canadian Press. (2012a, August 6). Controversy for Canada at Day 9 of the London Olympics - The Globe and Mail. The Globe and Mail. Retrieved January 1, 2013, from http://www.theglobeandmail.com/sports/olympics/ controversy-for-canada-at-day-9-of-the-london-olympics/article4464519/ The Canadian Press. (2012b, September 12). No gains for Canada at London Olympics. Metro News. Retrieved January 1, 2013, from http://metronews.ca/sports/334281/no-gains-for-canada-at-london-olympics/ The Canadian Press. (2012c, February 8). Canadas political power shifts westward with population - Politics CBC News. Candian Broadcasting Corporation (CBC). Retrieved December 19, 2012, from http://www.cbc.ca/news/ politics/story/2012/02/08/pol-census-politics-west.html CBC Sports. (2011, December 6). Hockey Night In Canada in Punjabi returns on CBC. Candian Broadcasting Corporation (CBC). Retrieved April 18, 2013, from http://www.cbc.ca/sports/hockey/nhl/story/2011/12/05/sphnic-punjabi.html Claridge, T. (2004, January 7). Denitions of Social Capital. Social Capital Research. Retrieved April 18, 2013, from http://www.socialcapitalresearch.com/literature/denition.html Coates, J. (2009, November 19). Less sports cash a national tragedy | The Australian. The Australian. Retrieved January 1, 2013, from http://www.theaustralian.com.au/opinion/less-sports-cash-a-national-tragedy/storye6frg6zo-1225799480158 96
Crawford Report Panel. (2009). The Future of Sport in Australia (Crawford Report). Canberra (AUST): Commonwealth Department of Health and Ageing. Cuhls, K. (2003). From forecasting to foresight processesnew participative foresight activities in Germany. Journal of Forecasting, 22(2-3), pp. 93111. doi:10.1002/for.848 Dawson, P. & Downward, P. (2009). Participation, Spectatorship and Media Coverage in Sport. Working Paper. Department of Economics, University of Bath, Bath, UK. Retrieved from http://opus.bath.ac.uk/16651/1/2409. pdf Durkheim, E. (2008). The elementary forms of the religious life. Dover Publications. Elenkov, D. S. (1997). Strategic Uncertainty and Environmental Scanning: The Case for Institutional Inuences on Scanning Behavior. Strategic Management Journal, 18(4), pp. 287302. doi:10.2307/3088142 Elkington, J. (1997). Cannibals with Forks: The triple bottom line of 21st Century Business, UK: Capstone. European Commission. (2012). What is an SME? - Small and medium sized enterprises (SME) - Enterprise and Industry. European Commission | Enterprise and Industry. Retrieved January 12, 2013, from http://ec.europa.eu/ enterprise/policies/sme/facts-gures-analysis/sme-denition/index_en.htm Farzad, R. (2010, November 17). The BRIC Debate: Drop Russia, Add Indonesia? - Businessweek. Bloomberg Businessweek. Retrieved March 15, 2013, from http://www.businessweek.com/stories/2010-11-17/the-bric-debatedrop-russia-add-indonesia Faulkner, Cynthia. (2003, May 7). Is Sea Island tourney Kournikovas last hope? ESPN.com. Sport News. Retrieved December 10, 2012, from http://a.espncdn.com/tennis/s/2003/0505/1549544.html FHM.com. (2002, January 27). 100 Sexiest Women in the World 2002 the Top Ten. FHM.com. Mens Magazine. Retrieved December 10, 2012, from http://www.fhm.com/girls/100-sexiest-women-in-the-world-2002--the-topten-20100127 Fredricks, J. A., & Eccles, J. S. (2004). Parental Inuences on Youth Involvement in Sports. Development in Sport and Exercise Psychology: A Lifespan Perspective, Fitness Information Technology Inc, WV, USA, pp. 145-164 Frey, J. H., & Eitzen, D. S. (1991). Sport and society. Annual Review of Sociology, 503-522. Gibson, O. (2012, July 18). Drop in school sport support blamed on funding cuts. The Guardian| UK. Retrieved March 15, 2013, from http://www.guardian.co.uk/education/2012/jul/18/school-sport-drop-funding-cuts Goodger, J.M, Goodger, B.C (1989) Excitement and Representation: Toward a Sociological Explanation of the Signicance of Sport in Modern Society, Quest, 41(3), pp. 257-272 Gordon, A. (2009). Future savvy: identifying trends to make better decisions, manage uncertainty, and prot from change. Amacom Books. Hall, M.A. (1996) Feminism and Sporting Bodies: Essays on Theory and Practice. Human Kinetics. Champaign, IL
97
Harvey, J. & Cantelon, J. (1997). The Organizational Structure of Sport, Not Just A Game: Essays in Canadian Sport Sociology. Ottawa, ON, CAN: University of Ottawa Press. pp. 89-120, Retrieved from http://site.ebrary.com/ lib/oculocad/docDetail.action?docID=10132502 Harvey, J. & Boulanger, R. (1997). Class Cultures and Sports in Quebec, Not Just A Game: Essays in Canadian Sport Sociology. Ottawa, ON, CAN: University of Ottawa Press. pp. 247-266, Retrieved from http://site.ebrary. com/lib/oculocad/docDetail.action?docID=10132502 Hinds, R. (2009, November 18). Olympic glory has had no impact in child obesity. The Sydney Morning Herald. Retrieved January 1, 2013, from http://www.smh.com.au/news/sport/olympic-glory-has-had-no-impact-in-childobesity/2009/11/17/1258219840230.html
Kentel, J.A. (2012). Getting Naked: Aspirations, delusions, and confusions about gender equity in youth sport. Ethics in Youth Sport: Policy and Pedagogical Applications. Routledge. Kingston, G. (2012, October 26). Winter sports funding shortfall has Canadian ofcials worried. Vancouver Sun via Canada.com. Retrieved March 15, 2013, from http://www2.canada.com/topics/news/story.html?id=7455687 Kimmelman, Michael. (2010, September 25). How Power Has Transformed Womens Tennis - NYTimes.com. New York Times - Magazine. News, Information. Retrieved December 11, 2012, from http://www.nytimes. com/2010/08/29/magazine/29Tennis-t.html?pagewanted=all Kirby, J., & Alini, E. (2012, December 19). INTERACTIVE: Canadas richest cities - Canada, Econowatch - Macleans. ca. MacLeans.ca. Retrieved March 15, 2013, from http://www2.macleans.ca/2012/12/19/interactive-canadasrichest-cities/ Knight, M. (2012, August 4). High-tech kit speeds athletes into new era. CNN. Retrieved March 15, 2013, from http://www.cnn.com/2012/08/04/tech/innovation/olympics-technology-debate-future Knoppers, A. & Elling, A. (1999) Gender, etniciteit en de sportmedia: Een inventarisatie van reguliere en Olympische berichtgeving (Gender, Ethnicity and the Sport Media: An Inventory of Olympic and Regular Coverage). Utrecht and Tilburg: Utrecht School of Governance and Leisure Studies. Lenau, T. & Lauritsen, S.B. (2009). Foresight, trends and materials inspiration for future products, Nordcode Retrieved March 29, 2013, from http://www.designskolenkolding.dk/leadmin/PDF/Forskning/Nordcode_09/ Foresight__Trends_and_Materials___Inspiration_for_Future_Products.pdf Lewenza, K. (2011, June 11). Stormy Skies for Canadas Middle Class - Yahoo! News Canada. The Mark News. Retrieved March 15, 2013, from http://ca.news.yahoo.com/stormy-skies-canadas-middle-class-151419160.html Maxim.com. (2009, January 16). The Hottest Women of Tennis | Maxim. Maxim. Mens Magazine. Retrieved December 10, 2012, from http://www.maxim.com/girls-of-sports/the-hottest-women-of-tennis Ontario Tennis Association (2009). Yearbook Report, Ontario Tennis Association, Retrieved from http://www. tennisontario.com/UserFiles/uploads/les/OT_Yearbook09[1].pdf Ontario Tennis Association (2010). Yearbook Report, Ontario Tennis Association, Retrieved from http://www. tennisontario.com/UserFiles/uploads/les/OT_Yearbook10[1].pdf Pappano, Laura. (2012, Spring). Athletes and Magazine Spreads: Does Sexy Mean Selling Out?. On The Issues Magazine - The Progressive Womans Magazine Spring 2012. Womens Issues. Retrieved October 21, 2012, from http://www.ontheissuesmagazine.com/2012spring/2012spring_Pappano.php Plunkett Research. (2012). Sports Recreation Leisure Market Research Industry Trends. Plunkett Research. Retrieved February 14, 2013, from http://www.plunkettresearch.com/sports-recreation-leisure-market-research/ industry-trends Rhoads, S. E. (1994). Incomparable worth: Pay equity meets the market. Cambridge University Press. Rittel, H & Webber, M. (1973). Dilemmas in a General Theory of Planning, pp. 155169, Policy Sciences, Vol. 4, Elsevier Scientic Publishing Company, Inc., Amsterdam.
Hirsch, T. (2011, February 20). Western shift in Canadian economy gaining momentum. Troy Media. Retrieved March 15, 2013, from http://www.troymedia.com/2011/02/20/western-shift-in-canadian-economy-gainingmomentum/ Hockey Canada. (2012). Funding Source and Use. Hockey Canada. Retrieved March 13, 2013, from http://www. hockeycanada.ca/en-ca/Corporate/About/Basics/Funding.aspx Hodgkinson, M. (2006, April 27). Issue of gender tender for tennis big spender - Tennis - Sport - theage.com.au. The Age: News, Information. Retrieved October 8, 2012, from http://www.theage.com.au/news/tennis/issue-ofgender-tender-for-tennis-big-spender/2006/04/26/1145861420605.html Horizon Scanning Centre. (2012). HSC Toolkit - Horizon Scanning - About. Horizon Scanning Centre - Toolkit. Retrieved March 14, 2013, from http://hsctoolkit.bis.gov.uk/About-7.html Horne, J., Tomlinson, A., & Whannel, G. (1999). Understanding Sport: An Introduction to the Sociological and Cultural Analysis of Sport. Florence, KY, USA: Routledge. Retrieved from http://site.ebrary.com/lib/oculocad/ docDetail.action?docID=10164576 Houpt, S. (2012, June 15). The big question for TV: Where did the kids go? The Globe and Mail. Retrieved March 15, 2013, from http://www.theglobeandmail.com/arts/television/the-big-question-for-tv-where-did-the-kids-go/ article4267554/ Ifedi, F. (2008). Sport participation in Canada, 2005. Statistics Canada, Culture, Tourism and the Centre for Education Statistics Division. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC (2012). Managing the risks of extreme events and disasters to advance climate change adaption, Special report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, USA, Retrieved March 29, 2013, from http://ipcc-wg2.gov/SREX/images/uploads/SREX-All_FINAL. pdf Jenkins, B. (2011, March 8). Statistical physicists tennis rankings dont square with reality. Sports Illustrated | SI.com. Retrieved March 14, 2013, from http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2011/writers/bruce_jenkins/03/08/ scientic.journal.top.players/index.html Jenkins, S. (1994, May 9). The Sorry State Of Tennis. Sports Illustrated | SI.com. Retrieved December 11, 2012, from http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/vault/article/magazine/MAG1005166/1/index.htm?eref=sisf 98
99
Rogers Communications. (2012). Corporate Social Responsibility - Rogers. Rogers Communications - Canada. Retrieved December 17, 2012, from http://www.rogers.com/web/content/CSR Silk, M. (2004). Televised Sport in a Global Consumer Age. In T. Slack (Ed.), Commercialization of Sport (pp. 249288). Florence, KY, USA: Routledge. Retrieved from http://site.ebrary.com/lib/oculocad/docDetail. action?docID=10162769 Sport Canada. (2012). Canadian Heritage - Sport Canada - Mission. Canadian Heritage Ministry. Government of Canada. Retrieved December 17, 2012, from http://www.pch.gc.ca/pgm/sc/mssn/index-eng.cfm Sports Illustrated. (2006). Maria Sharapova SI Swimsuit Collection - 2006 - Sports Illustrated - SI Vault. Sports Illustrated. Sport News. Retrieved December 10, 2012, from http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/vault/swimsuit/ modelfeatured/maria_sharapova/2006/athletes/index.htm Sports Illustrated. (2004). Anna Kournikova SI Swimsuit Collection - 2004 - Sports Illustrated - SI Vault. Sports Illustrated. Sport News. Retrieved December 10, 2012, from http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/vault/swimsuit/ modelfeatured/anna_kournikova/2004/athlete/index.htm Staff Writer. (2008, April 11). Whats in a band name? Here are the stories behind the monikers - Features Music - The Independent. The Independent | Independent.co.uk. Retrieved February 14, 2013, from http://www. independent.co.uk/arts-entertainment/music/features/whats-in-a-band-name-here-are-the-stories-behind-themonikers-807597.html Staff Writer. (2012, November 4). Perpetually connected: Are wearable computers and bio-implants the future of mobile?. The Next Web. Retrieved March 15, 2013, from http://thenextweb.com/mobile/2012/11/04/perpetuallyconnected-are-wearable-computers-and-bio-implants-the-future-of-mobile/ Statistics Canada. (2011). Canadians in Context - Aging Population / Indicators of Well-being in Canada. Statistics Canada. Retrieved March 15, 2013, from http://www4.hrsdc.gc.ca/.3ndic.1t.4r@-eng.jsp?iid=33 Tennis Canada. (2013, January 23). TENNIS CONTINUES TO GAIN MOMENTUM IN CANADA TOPPING 5 MILLION PLAYERS. Tennis Canada. Retrieved March 13, 2013, from http://www.tenniscanada.com/index.php?title=TENNISCONTINUES-TO-GAIN-MOMENTUM-IN-CANADA-TOPPING-5-MILLION-PLAYERS&pid=4353 Tennis Canada. (2012a). Tennis Canadas Mission, Vision and Values. Tennis Canada. Retrieved September 1, 2012, from http://www.tenniscanada.com/index.php?title=mission-vision-values&pid=107 Tennis Canada. (2012b). Community Tennis. Tennis Canada. Retrieved December 17, 2012, from http://www.tenniscanada.ca/tennis_canada/Pub/DisplayPage.aspx?enc=WqmHTIXb3hZBDLgekBXg/ hTFNVXljEXChkpBW6ncrDYAinRZ1zHPljEGSMxuIxtOWo37re2dGSYMPoNqyCqI6Q== Tennis Canada. (2012c). Annual Report 2011. Tennis Canada. Retrieved March 13, 2013, from http://www. tenniscanada.com/index.php?title=ANNUAL%20REPORT&pid=117 Tennis Canada (2008). Long Term Athlete Development Plan for the Sport of Tennis in Canada, Tennis Canada, Canada Tennis Canada (2010). Little Aces Major Market Organization Guide (draft), Tennis Canada, Canada
Therien, E. (2012, January 4). The future looks bleak for Canadian minor hockey - thestar.com. The Toronto Star. Retrieved January 30, 2013, from http://www.thestar.com/opinion/editorialopinion/article/1110649--the-futurelooks-bleak-for-canadian-minor-hockey Travers, A. (2009). The sport nexus and gender injustice. Studies in Social Justice, 2(1), pp. 79-101. United Nations (2007). Women, gender equality and sport. Women 2000 and beyond. Division for the Advancement of Women, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Retrieved November 10, 2012 from http://www. un.org/womenwatch/daw/public/Women%20and%20Sport.pdf Walker, T. G. (2009). The role of the builder in community sport in Canada. (Doctoral dissertation, Urban Studies Program-Simon Fraser University). Walsh, A., & Giulianotti, R. (2006). Ethics, Money and Sport: This Sporting Mammon. Florence, KY, USA: Routledge. Retrieved from http://site.ebrary.com/lib/oculocad/docDetail. action?docID=10152314 Warren, M. R., Thompson, J. P., & Saegert, S. (2001). The role of social capital in combating poverty. Social capital and poor communities, 1-28. Wilms, T. (2012, August 6). The Democratization of Social Inuence. Forbes. Retrieved March 15, 2013, from http://www.forbes.com/sites/sap/2012/06/08/social-inuence-and-why-it-is-important/ Womens Sports Foundation. (2011). Purse Equity in Professional Sports. Womens Sports Foundation - Sports Foundation. Writer, S. (2010, July 1). Women in tennis what the deuce?! | Gender Agenda. Gender Agenda. Blog. Retrieved October 8, 2012, from http://www.gender-agenda.org.uk/discuss/484/women-in-tennis-what-the-deuce/ WTA. (2011, May 12). WTA Launches Strong Is Beautiful Campaign. Womens Tennis Association (WTA). Womens Professional Tennis Tour. Retrieved December 11, 2012, from http://www.wtatennis.com/news/20110512/wtalaunches-strong-is-beautiful-campaign_2256076_2358555 Van Sterkenburg, J. and Knoppers A. (2004). Dominant Discourses about Race/Ethnicity and Gender in Sport Practice and Performance. International Review for the Sociology of Sport, 39 (3), pp. 301-321 Viasport (2012). Sector Review Provincial Sports Organizations, British Columbia, Retrieve from http://www. viasport.ca/pdf/PSO%20Sector%20Review%20Final%20Report.pdf Vinciguerra, T. (2011, November 30). Converting AK-47s Into Jewelry. New York Times. Retrieved April 18, 2013, from http://www.nytimes.com/2011/12/01/fashion/converting-ak-47s-into-jewelry.html?_r=0
100
101
8 Appendix A
Additional Trend Information
Photo by Porto Bay Trade (Flickr), available under
cc
102
103
Business Unusual
Signals European Economic Crisis Indicators (2013) Continued recession in United Kingdom, retail slump emphasizing lack of consumer confidence, and willingness to spend money; continued uncertainty and unease for public limits recover. http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2013/feb/15/uk-retail-sales-drop-triple-dip-recession (2012) Evidence showing European recession deepening, not isolated to Greece, Spain, Italy, but slow economic growth present in Germany and United Kingdom. http://www.globalresearch.ca/global-economic-crisis-europe-slides-deeper-into-recession/5319352 (2012) Crisis timelines showing the important crisis points, categorized by country and year. http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/interactive/2012/oct/17/eurozone-crisis-interactive-timeline-threeyears Emerging Economies | Threat to Status Quo Effects on Global Economy Indicators (2013) Emerging Markets attractive for investors, trend continuing, China and other markets particularly. http://nance.yahoo.com/news/emerging-markets-big-story-2013-135459153.html (2012) Global Economy projected with uneven and cautious recovery, Euro still in recession, emerging economies are better positioned for economic growth. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a4Pe2IqFvyc&feature=youtu.be (2012) New Opportunities in emerging markets, in comparison to United States. http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/careers/management/to-bolster-prosperitybusinesses-look-to-emerging-markets/article6461152/ Rise a of New Middle Class Indicators (2011) China middle class increase is important global event. http://www.forbes.com/sites/helenwang/2011/12/21/the-biggest-story-of-our-time-the-rise-of-chinasmiddle-class/ (2012) India, South Africa middle class growth, upward mobility and appetite for consumer goods, affect politics and social organization. http://www.cipe.org/blog/2012/10/18/the-rise-of-the-middle-class-in-brazil-india-and-south-africa/#. UR57cFriqoc (2012) 52% of Brazil population, diverse and with considerable consumer buying power. http://www.brasil.gov.br/para/press/press-releases/november-1/brazilian-middle-class-reaches-52-oftotal-population/br_model1?set_language=en Media Trends | Revenue and Consumption Patterns Indicators (2012) Media changes are affecting politics. http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-x/wp/2012/10/01/the-rapidly-changing-media-landscapeand-what-it-means-for-politics-in-1-chart/ (2012) Television remains the most important media as new trends emerge around consumer tendencies related to digital platforms. http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/tv-holding-its-own-in-changing-media-landscape/ article4518322/ 104
(2012) Youth market not accessing media through television, may affect advertising revenue for media outlets. http://www.theglobeandmail.com/arts/television/the-big-question-for-tv-where-did-the-kids-go/ article4267554/
Barriers and Friction Security Threats Indicators (2013) Russia political and social unease does not create ideal conditions to host 2014 Olympics, citing repressive measures to ensure athletes safety and growing concerns of terrorist reprisal. http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2013/jan/02/sochi-2014-winter-olympics-political-tinderbox (2012) Averted terror plot from Islamist fundamental group, stockpiled arsenal of weapons to carry out an attack on venues in Sochi during Olympic games in 2014. http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/may/10/russia-plot-sochi-winter-olympics (2012) Russian preparedness in question, both related to providing infrastructure to ensure venues meet standards for international competition and ability to provide security for athletes, workers and spectators. http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1261918-2014-olympics-is-sochi-russia-ready-for-winter-games BRIC | Corruption in Russia, China, India, South Africa Indicators (2012) Corruption threatens fabric of Communist part in China. Russia removes key leaders (national defense, military) on charges of fraud. International scrutiny increases, threatening investments as security and stability are questioned. http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2012/11/corruption-threatens-bric-giants/ (2013) South Africa issues of corruption affecting foreign investment and stability of economy. Crack down on corruption and fraud, within government imminent and necessary to redress international condence. http://www.timeslive.co.za/local/2013/02/15/corruption-biggest-threat-to-sa-bmf (2012) Statements form UK bands and government ministries issue warnings about Russia corruption and political instability, as potential threats to economic and social stability. http://www.ukti.gov.uk/export/countries/europe/easterneurope/russia/overseasbusinessrisk.html
Whos Funding Whom?

Signals Focus on High Performance Athletics Indicators (2012) Federal funding remains untouched, Own the Podium funding in place for Sochi games. http://www.canadiansportcentre.com/en/news/newsletter-archives/76-april-2-2012/591-sports-fundinguntouched-in-federal-budget (2012) Federal grant money maintained in preparation for 2015 Pan-Am games in Toronto. Praised by Canadian Pan-AM, IOC, but questions remain whether funding will remain post games. http://www.theglobeandmail.com/sports/olympics/sports-grants-untouched-in-federal-budget/ article4096612/ (2012) Canadian federal mission related to sport and sport excellence, working through Sport Canada, relevant to all national sporting agencies, including Tennis Canada.
105
http://www.canada2010.gc.ca/mmedia/kits/fch-9-eng.cfm Physical Education | Funding Cuts Indicators (2012) Sport funding in United Kingdom decreasing by up to 92%. Effects on physical education in schools, and overall health raise warnings, congruent with education funding cuts in Canada. http://www.guardian.co.uk/education/2012/jul/18/school-sport-drop-funding-cuts (2012) Obesity study from Harvard identifying relationship between obesity and inactivity, showing the benets of physical activity for greater overall health and weight loss. http://www.hsph.harvard.edu/obesity-prevention-source/obesity-causes/physical-activity-and-obesity/ (2011) Health and physical education linkages through study conducted in Canada, focusing on need for physical activity delivered through school system and adverse effects of recent cuts. http://www.peopleforeducation.ca/wp-content/uploads/2011/07/Health-and-Physical-Education-inSchools-2011.pdf
Build Me a Player
Signals Human Enhancements | Biotech Emergence | Nanotechnology Indicators (2011) Ethical discussion about human enhancements, citing recent advances in drug therapy could increase human capacity for work, longer hours, higher pain thresholds. Implications raising alarm. http://io9.com/5958604/scientists-raise-the-alarm-on-human-enhancement-technologies (2007) Trans-human trends including cryogenics, artificial intelligence and mind backups (human memory digitally stored. http://www.singularity2050.com/2007/08/top-ten-transhu.html (2013) Alternative perspective on Lance Armstrong as pioneer in human enhancement, again bringing ethical arguments to light, in face of new technology. http://www.wired.co.uk/news/archive/2013-01/30/lance-armstrong (2012) (Dis)ability ethics, where are our obligations around disability and potential eradication of impaired communities, deaf, blind etc. Does technology constitute unfair advance even if Oscar Pitorius did not win at 2012 Olympics? http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/olympics/athletics/9405113/London-2012-Olympics-Games-legendMichael-Johnson-believes-Oscar-Pistorius-has-an-unfair-advantage.html
From East to West

Signals Wests Growing Economic Power Indicators (2011) Statistics Canada population and migration numbers related to movement of population to western provinces. http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/story/2012/02/08/census-2011-main.html (2012) Political shift occurring as population growth and economic power increases in resources rich provinces, west of Ontario. http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/story/2012/02/08/pol-census-politics-west.html (2013) Economic growth in prairies forecasted to be leaders in Canada, citing Regina and Saskatoon as urban centres with high rate of economic growth. http://www.leaderpost.com/business/Prairies+lead+country+economic+growth+this+year/7966700/story. html Small Centre Growth | Urban Shift Indicators (2012) Youth demographic shifts, higher unemployment and post-graduate debt loads, reduced opportunities forcing migration to economic growth areas, west and north, but urban rather than rural. http://www.vitalsignscanada.ca/les/vitalyouth/2012_VitalYouth%20Research%20Summary.pdf (2012) Suburban growth, new trends in livability, where commute to work, quality of life outweigh big house with large yard. http://ca.nance.yahoo.com/blogs/insight/city-suburbs-urban-centres-become-moredesireable-173117659.html (2012) Small city spurring growth across country, attractive alternative to big city living. http://www.forbes.com/sites/joelkotkin/2012/05/08/small-cities-are-becoming-the-main-engine-ofeconomic-growth/
My Custom Morning Jacket

Signals Custom Coaching and Training | The Personalized Approach Indicators (2013) Wearable computing new normal in biosensor feedback, revolutionary advances in computing, leading to massive data capture. http://www.hufngtonpost.com/keith-hanson/wearable-computing_b_2433946.html (2012) Virtual reality training, already available and being used in training (American football). Technology is moving at rapid pace, and coaching training will be under constant pressure to adopt and adapt. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tyugr_rNqHg (2012) Cycling training simulator, using existing technology; future advances will link with virtual reality, creating realistic simulation of environment conditions. http://fuelimage.com/tness/virtual-reality-cycling/ Personal Interactive Experience | Augmented and Virtual Reality | Virtual Simulation Indicators (2012) Sensors in tennis racquet, new form of feedback useful for coaching and skills development. Customization of equipment based on body type, playing style and competitive goals. http://www.technologytrends.co.za/technology/sports-technology/sports-technology-babolat-playconnect-interactive-tennis-racquet/ (2013) Medical recovery, use of virtual reality in assessment and treatment of post-concussive injury. http://gantdaily.com/2013/01/14/penn-state-pioneers-virtual-reality-to-help-athletes-afterconcussions/ (2012) Alternative training, 3D simulations integration into sports community and training.
106
107
http://www.3dseriousgamesandsimulations.com/blog/a-natural-match-3d-simulations-serious-gamesand-the-sports-industry/
Wheres the Middle Gone?

Signals Consumer Power and Political Power Indicators (2013) Canadian middle class in decline, hallowing out reducing consumer and political power. http://www.hufngtonpost.ca/2013/02/26/hollowing-out-middle-class-canada_n_2765929.html (2012) Middle class no longer emphasis politically as once were, middle class wages have stagnated and increases in middle class income related to highly educated women entering workforce in unprecedented numbers. http://www.thestar.com/opinion/editorialopinion/2012/10/30/canadian_middle_class_left_out_of_the_ growth_equation.html (2011) Future projections about Canadas middle class, and its continued decline. http://ca.news.yahoo.com/stormy-skies-canadas-middle-class-151419160.html
Big Data, Big Role

Signals Personal Data Recording | Wearable Computers Indicators (2012) Mobile trends with implants include bio implants integrated into the body, connected to clothing or wireless interaction with mobile devices. http://thenextweb.com/mobile/2012/11/04/perpetually-connected-are-wearable-computers-and-bioimplants-the-future-of-mobile/ (2012) Google glasses, although not perfect, show the progression of display and mobile computing. http://www.theverge.com/2012/6/26/2986317/google-project-glass-wearable-computers-disappoint-me (2012) Platform innovation through wearable computers, will transform how we envision interacting with technology and our world. http://bits.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/04/17/wearable-computers-are-the-next-platform-wars-report-says/ Big Data Analysis Indicators (2013) Predictive analytics next impact from big data; higher degree of accuracy for decision-making and future predictions based on quantitative and qualitative measurement. http://www.informationweek.com/big-data/news/government/information-management/predictiveanalytics-improve-miami-city/240149707 (2012) Performance monitoring during sporting competition and post-event analysis big gains for training and coaches, understanding tendencies and performance indicators as means to predict possible results. http://www.informationweek.com/big-data/news/big-data-analytics/soccer-wonks-learn-tough-big-datalesson/240006932?queryText=sports
Rise of the Elder Class

Signals Shape of Canadian Demographics Indicators (2011) Government statistics on the growing age distribution of Canadian population. http://www4.hrsdc.gc.ca/.3ndic.1t.4r@-eng.jsp?iid=33 (2012) Aging population will create new dependencies for Canadian healthcare, straining existing distribution of resources and services provision. http://www.theglobeandmail.com/commentary/editorials/canadas-aging-population-will-strain-thehealth-care-system/article543638/ (2012) Owners of small businesses are at risk of failing due to poor succession planning as owners are increasingly close to retirement age. http://www.theglobe andmail.com/report-on-business/small-business/sb-money/valuation/agingpopulation-set-to-sideswipe-canadas-small-businesses/article5226576
Social-Digi-Net Inuence
Signals Social Media | Primary Social Inuence Indicators (2012) Research into how children are influenced through primary relationships and its relationship to physical activity. http://eurpub.oxfordjournals.org/content/early/2012/10/28/eurpub.cks149.abstract (2012) Fan Engagement linked to online and social media presence, rather than traditional media, inuences advertising and marketing. http://www.mediapost.com/publications/article/183207/sports-fans-turn-more-to-web-social-media. html#axzz2LSFXwsVm (2012) Study looking at the concept of obesity being contagious within social networks. Influence from peers to remain inactive or shy away from particular sports. http://www.stritch.luc.edu/depts/prevmed/main/Publications/newpapers/papers_tong/2012PLoS_ Shoham.pdf 108
109
9 Appendix B
Additional Detail for Opportunities and Threats (SWOT Analysis)
Photo by derekGavey (Flickr), available under
cc
110
111
Opportunity
Multiple ATP Masters 500 / 250, WTA Premier or International Tournaments
Relevance: Business | High
Possible Impacts / Outcomes Securing ATP Master 500 and 250 Level tournaments, or WTA International tournaments to add to and/or replace Rogers Cup (Master 1000) may balance regional emphasis, establishing high-level tournaments in Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton, or Halifax. Enhanced partnerships with provincial tennis associations and provincial governments to build or upgrade facilities. Ownership, media presence and public exposure are primary concerns for new tournaments. Balanced revenue throughout the year, rather than being contingent on one major event to secure revenue to fund organization, player and community development. Additional tournaments at lower level may focus attention regionally, less specific as Canadian event, helping to grow regional centres.
Opportunity
Changing the Game: Distributed Training, 3D Simulations, Virtual Competition
Possible Impacts / Outcomes Become global leader in high-tech training, using cutting edge simulators and digital training techniques (including virtual or augmented reality for competition). Allows for integrated monitoring and assessment of players in decentralized approach, limited necessity for travel. Faceto-face contact could be lessened, but still have players benet from national coaching (virtualized). Develop new Canadian coaching talent through technology adoption, distributed worldwide. Canada could become global leader, attracting top-level coaches to training facilities to learn new innovative techniques.
Relevance: Community | Medium

Possible Impacts / Outcomes Facilities, including simulators and virtualized training systems, could be used by community-centric and sports professionals in cooperation with Tennis Canada and technology sponsors. Extend notion of corporate social responsibility to support technology at regional and local levels. Benefits include brand exposure and funding to support technology. Provide greater access to premier facilities, including top-level coaches as funding coming from technology sponsors who wish to showcase latest tech. Penetrate specific cultural, socio-economic groups by showcasing talent and access, portability of technology could lead to use in schools, community centres, or local gyms.

Possible Impacts / Outcomes Securing additional high-level tournaments provides new tennis focusing attention locally, creating interest via sport and entertainment. Community partners and outreach programs centred on event, similar to configuration for Rogers Cup, add resiliency to outreach program already provided by Tennis Canada. Localization of funding arrangements could create residual revenue to cycle back into community; event as localized, economic driver.
Relevance: Player | Low

Possible Impacts / Outcomes Reduce need for expensive travel to compete or receive coaching. Tennis Canada provides distributed and decentralized training and coaching, increase number of players that could benet from national programs. Ability to assess and monitor new talent, while being sensitive to mental and emotional preparedness of the athlete; remain close to familiar locales.

Possible Impacts / Outcomes Presents opportunity to compete in more than one high level Canadian tournament, increasing personal exposure; generating pride in Canadian presence on international stage. Player development in more regional centres, reducing travel while maintaining level of competition and training; new centres of excellence; programs developed for diverse communities, can be more specialized based on needs.
Notes Balancing high-level tournaments across Canada would have a number of advantages, while still providing secure revenue generation. Although perhaps not as highly touted as the Master 1000, WTA Premiere level tournaments, the lower level tournaments still maintain credibility and, as with the Master 500 tournament in Dubai, may be solidied as a players favourite tournament, attracting top-level talent. Having additional tournaments across Canada also establishes a distributed national presence, indicative of Sport Canada and Tennis Canadas vision. Operational concerns, management, and administration require attention to mitigate additional resource requirements.
112
113
Opportunity
Using Big Data to Predict Success
Possible Impacts / Outcomes Establish Canada as global leader in Big Data use for sport and tennis; provide analytics from broad based data capture not possible in the past. Determine casual relationships between skills development, location and potential success; help in procurement and development of talent, young and old. Use of personal data collection to bridge issues of mental and emotional wellbeing for athletes. Possibility to determine issues and provide support before problems escalate, leading to burnout, injury or other serious outcomes.
Opportunity
Embracing New Western Communities (Shifting Centres of Excellence)
Possible Impacts / Outcomes New communities, concentrated in Western and Northern Canada add potential source of economic wealth to be exploited, generate revenue depending on relationship with provincial and Tennis Canada. Go where the money is. Add strategic relationships in areas with increased wealth and opportunity, resources may drive opportunities and participatory growth. Partner with communities to construct facilities, indoor and outdoor, determine marketing approach to maximize new points of access. Sensitivity to shifts in economic and political centre of Canada may increase funding from provincial partners and addition of major sponsors.

Possible Impacts / Outcomes Accountability for programs and success based on objectives could have role for Big Data, determining best implementation strategy to achieve most favourable results. Monitoring, comparison and contrast with other centres, across Canada and globally; a sporting Vital Signs style report card for different communities. Evaluate local conditions; customize specialized programs to meet needs unique to a given community. Compare and contrast varying factors across Canada to get complete picture of contributing factors to success or failure, audience engagement and participation strategies.
Relevance: Community | High

Possible Impacts / Outcomes Potential issues with public perception. Tennis Canada, as national governing agency, centred in Toronto and Montreal, shift west drives need for additional resources in new hub, may also require public relations campaign to help with shifting emphasis. Rich urban centres present opportunities to establish facilities and programs. Need to provide regionally sensitivity, for players and public.
Relevance: Player | High

Possible Impacts / Outcomes Long-term benefits from greater ability to identify appropriate training and development programs, customized for players individual needs and performance goals. Use of emotional and mental monitoring, predict outcomes, peaks and valleys for training, better competitive outlook
Relevance: Player | Medium

Possible Impacts / Outcomes Wealthier urban centers with funding to establish new facilities, particularly as extension of Tennis Canada or Sport Canadas mission. Higher levels of training might be available at new regional hubs, reducing travel costs and time away from players home base
Notes Big data, personal data capture be leader in big data business and monitoring for sport. Leading edge of tech involvement with competitive / professional training regimes. Industry / world leader in tech based, remote and asynchronous training disciplines.
114
115
Opportunity
Diversication of Funding Sources
Possible Impacts / Outcomes Securing additional funding provides stability, diversify revenue portfolio, augmenting The Rogers Cup focus. New revenue sources based on tennis benefits (fitness and healthier lifestyles) may attract new strategic partners i.e. Health Canada, Academic Health Networks Funding sources may address shortfalls, allowing penetration into new immigrant groups and countering legacy perception of tennis as elite sport. Fund programs to support secondary networks, where primary funding sources (federal government, donors) are unable to continue level of commitment. Look for opportunities in non-traditional centres experiencing economic growth (Western Canada Top 8 growing cities, highest income per capita).
Threat
Organizational Agility
Possible Impacts / Outcomes Lack of organizational agility may stress processes and ability to continue maintaining level of service, for community and players. To reach the preferred future (horizon 3) without the revenue stability of Rogers Cup, existing infrastructures may need to adapt to meet new requirements. Shifts in existing infrastructure, programs and services may force new stafng and resource allocation.
Relevance: Community | Low

Possible Impacts / Outcomes Apart from funding for community development, organizational structure and the administration of programs related to communities largely dependent on external staff to Tennis Canada, lessening dependency of communities on Tennis Canada for implementation.

Possible Impacts / Outcomes Community development relies on secure, continuous funding. New sources offer ability to sustain existing programs and offset cuts from provinces. New sources could create additional training centres and / or programs across nation.

Possible Impacts / Outcomes Changes to supporting infrastructure and dynamics of athletic training may have long-term effects on players. Ability to foster talent and support infrastructure players depend on for success may become challenge if conditions dramatically change and organization lacks ability to respond to changed environment.

Possible Impacts / Outcomes Funding to support new tournament establishes additional presence internationally. Competitive player development based on facilities, sources of funding may support additional programs and facilities to help grow focus on tennis. Opportunity to create new centres of excellence; programs developed for diverse community outreach.
Notes Tennis Canada has the advantage of considerable funding generated from Rogers Cup, however, if this primary funding source is compromised, additional funding would be required to ensure that the same level of programming is provided. Potential funding sources include: Federal Ministries Health Canada Other healthcare providers and academic learning networks High-level philanthropic donors, able to fund specific, high exposure programs
116
117
Threat
Provincial Tennis Associations (Strategic Alliances)
Relevance: Business | Medium
Possible Impacts / Outcomes Strategic alliances, particularly with provincial tennis associations, are crucial to achieving the preferred future state. Ensure positive and continued alignment in face of funding uncertainties. Addressing inequality, regional disparities and cultural differences depend on evaluating programs, their reach within communities, and ability to fulll strategic objectives. Ensuring provinces are aligned with national policy while still maintaining autonomy to respond to regional differences may create friction or barriers, as provincial pressures (funding, services) may conict with Tennis Canadas tactics. National membership model, similar to the United States Tennis Association (USTA) may prove to be most appropriate vehicle to accomplish goal, but create additional issues for provincial execution, and strained relationships with provincial government.
Threat
Shifting Media: Adapting to New Media Forms
Possible Impacts / Outcomes Audience growth and awareness of tennis contingent on frequency and exposure through media. Revenue generation also tied to media (namely television broadcast rights). As viewership opts for new forms of media consumption, reduced revenues and potential reduction in media presence may counter recent gains (i.e. Sportsnet, TSN commitment to broadcast all ATP, WTA high-level tournaments). Potential revenue streams may emerge from new media forms. However, decline in television viewership and broadcast revenue may be too great to offset, creating a shortfall. Increase viewership in other media, on demand web-based delivery, geo-locational representation for localized sponsorship. Whether or not overall revenue levels will be comparable to television remains inconclusive. Apple TV, Google TV and others disrupt traditional television delivery through telecoms. Alliances with existing sponsorship related to media exposure.

Possible Impacts / Outcomes Provincial tennis associations have a vested interest and long standing relationships with Tennis Canada, while maintaining individual operation within their jurisdiction. If Tennis Canada is unable to fund programs, community promotion and facility development, provincial organizations will be increasingly under pressure to do so. The result may generate new power dynamics and autonomy for particular regions.
Relevance: Community | Low

Possible Impacts / Outcomes Media impact on communities overall will be relatively low. Audience and participation relationship low impact at community level. Prevalence of sport in public domain may change public opinion of sport and representational connection.

Possible Impacts / Outcomes Player support shifting to national organization provides continued connection and removes limitations of jurisdiction for competitive play.

Possible Impacts / Outcomes Player relationship to sport and competition are less affected by shifts in media forms. Transition from fan to participant is not necessarily linked. Interest and exposure to the game may lead to continued interest for existing players. On-demand, web-based delivery provide opportunities to maintain audience connection, continuing to foster passion for sport.
118
119
Threat
Adapting to New Canadian Demographics
Possible Impacts / Outcomes Aging population may reduce overall audience growth long-term. Need to address inequity across different communities and traditional population base shifting towards new cultural groups. Opportunities emerging for older population. Programs would require new investment and resources. May involve new strategies for deployment.
Threat
Global Tennis Scandal
Possible Impacts / Outcomes Decline in sponsorship and philanthropic support based on tarnished image. Managing public image increases in priority as media and public opinion affects audience viewership and participation levels. New focus on ensuring level playing field requires international support for monitoring, enforcements. Additional resources required supporting agencies in policing and removal of undesirable conditions. Question as to ability to manage policing of new technology. Tarnished image require investment in public relations to counter damage perpetrated by scandal. Reaction to scandal may be international, not simply an issue confined to national boundaries; difficulties in shifting perception after the fact (i.e. sport still considered dirty even after efforts to eliminate future infractions).

Possible Impacts / Outcomes Changing demographics has risk of shifting existing community structures. Result may affect participation levels. Accountability to new community composition may require re-engineering of traditional delivery and engagement policies. Urban centres still focus attention but may not be traditional centres, i.e. Toronto, Montreal, Vancouver, and Calgary. Regional differences may affect growth and opportunities.

Possible Impacts / Outcomes Public outcry may detract from sport; shift primary relationships advocate for sports other than tennis. Need to increase education and prevention programs to ensure that new technologies, chemical or other, and any potentially illegal devices are eliminated. Difculty in enforcement at community level, little monitoring or enforcement. Continue to focus on grassroots campaigns to foster interest in participation, while public attitudes are played out in media and other discussion forums.

Possible Impacts / Outcomes Opportunities to participate continue to shape mandates, related to community and competitive levels. Engagement will need to focus on representation: How am I reflected in this sport? Older populations present new challenges and opportunities for competition, participation for older age groups.

Possible Impacts / Outcomes Potential decrease in participation and hence, competitive players directly affected by public image crisis. Technological advances may present opportunities previously unimagined to players. Rate of technological change may allow for new training techniques, medical treatments to be used before international or federal approval. Financial rewards offer incentive to engage in new technologies, regardless of threat of consequence.
System Relevance Key

High Impact Dramatic impact on system and primary stakeholder; multiple stakeholders affected; possible change to entire system dynamic
Medium Impact Signicant impact on system and primary stakeholder; possible effects on system Low Impact Negligible impact on system and stakeholders
120
121
10Appendix C
Additional Tables and Stakeholder Matrices
Photo by Craig Sunter from Manchester - UK (Flickr), available under
cc
122
123
Table 4 Business Stakeholder Matrix Social Connection

Fans / Audience
Table 6 Elite / High Performance Player Stakeholder Matrix Economic Political

ATP / WTA Tours ITF Provincial Tennis Associations
Technology Inuencers
Facilities
Values
Community Health / Social Good Health and Wellness Diversity Social Acceptance
Social Connection
Family / Friends Community Connection Tennis Club
Equipment Suppliers Tennis Canada Tennis Professionals Facilities
Economic
Political
Values
Tennis Clubs Family / Friends Schools
Rogers Cup Sponsors Retailers
International TenFamily / Friends nis Federation (ITF) Equipment Manufacturers Community Connection
Community Leaders Equipment Suppliers Rogers Cup Tennis Professionals Sponsors Staff Tennis Professionals ITF Training / Coaching Association Grand Slam Committee ATP / WTA Tours
Professional Players Federal Government Provincial Tennis Associations Program administration Provincial Government Municipal Government(s) Master Series Committee
Equipment Retailers Provincial Health Care Provincial Tennis Associations Tennis Canada Sport Canada Media Industry Sponsors National Health Care Social Connection Tennis Professionals Provincial Tennis Organizations
Audience Support Professional Success Equipment Manufacturers International Tennis Federation (ITF)
Table 5 Community Stakeholder Matrix Social Connection

Family / Friends
Professional Tours (ATP / WTA)
Equipment Suppliers
Economic
Individual donors Community based Funders Provincial Tennis Associations Tennis Canada Sport Canada Equipment Suppliers Sponsors Media
Political
Municipal Government Provincial Government Provincial Tennis Associations Tennis Canada Sport Canada International Tennis Federation (ITF)
Values Table 7 Competitive Player Stakeholder Matrix

Community Health / Social Good Health and Wellness Creating Opportunities Social Cohesion Neighbourhood development
Community Leaders Tennis Canada Programs Tennis Professionals Community Outreach Schools Clubs / Other Organizations Tennis Professionals Facilities Equipment Manufacturers International Tennis Federation (ITF)
Social Connection
Social Connection Family / Friends Community Connection Tennis Club
Technology Inuencers Equipment Suppliers Tennis Canada Tennis Professionals Facilities Equipment Manufacturers International Tennis Federation (ITF)
Economic
Economic Tennis Clubs Equipment Manufacturers
Political
Motivation / Participation Family / Friends Community Connection
Values
Community Interaction Tennis Clubs Family / Friends Schools
Equipment Retailers Provincial Health Care Provincial Tennis Associations Tennis Canada Sport Canada Media Industry National Health Care Social Connection Tennis Professionals Provincial Tennis Organizations
Sponsors
124
125
Table 8 Recreational Player Stakeholder Matrix Social Connection

Family / Friends Community Connection Tennis Club
Table 10 Sport Funding 2011-2012 (Top Canadian Sports) Political

Family / Friends Community Connection
Equipment Suppliers Tennis Canada Tennis Professionals Facilities Equipment Manufacturers International Tennis Federation (ITF)
Economic
Tennis Clubs Equipment Manufacturers
Values
Tennis Clubs Family / Friends Schools
Association Royal Canadian Golf Association Canadian Hockey Association Swimming Canada Canadian Soccer Association Canadian Basketball
2011 Contribution $829,000 $3,368,500 $5,269,825 $3,345,500 $3,669,200 $590,000 $50,000 $50,000 $245,000 Hosting Contribution $884,500 $3,098,000 $5,337,225 $3,459,500 $3,709,500 $996,500
2012 Hosting
% Change % Change Hosting Contribution 6.2 N/A N/A -96.7 80.0 64.0 -145.0
$350,000 $300,000 $250,000 $139,005 $100,000
-8.7 1.2 3.2 1.1 -0.7
Equipment Retailers Provincial Health Care Provincial Tennis Associations Tennis Canada Sport Canada Media Industry Sponsors National Health Care Social Connection Tennis Professionals Provincial Tennis Organizations
Canadian Fed$1,003,500 eration of Amateur Baseball Alpine Canada Volleyball Canada Cycling Association Tennis Canada Canadian Snowboard Federation % Change % Change Hosting Contribution -1.6 N/A -34.0 -229.3 -28.9 N/A N/A -23.1 18.1 11.5 -64.3 3.5 -96.7 Sport Canada Grand Total $4,795,700 $2,006,000 $2,913,648 $925,500 $2,277,532
$349,998 $49,999 $524,997 $100,000 $372,499 $24,138,189
$4,775,328 $2,122,000 $3,375,010 $824,500 $2,389,318 $148,872,221
$349,999 $349,998 $379,998 $135,000 $584,856 $23,121,852
-0.4 5.5 13.7 -12.2 4.7 1.1
-0.0 85.7 -38.1 26.0 36.8 -4.3 0.9
Table 9 Sport Funding 20072008 (Top Canadian Sports)

Association Royal Canadian Golf Association Canadian Hockey Association Swimming Canada Canadian Soccer Association Canadian Basketball Baseball Canada Alpine Canada Volleyball Canada Cycling Association Tennis Canada Canadian Snowboard Federation Sport Canada Total Sport Canada Grand Total 2007 Contribution $661,000 $3,220,600 $2,855,928 $1,430,008 $2,049,480 $996,331 $3,032,869 $1,413,754 $1,565,784 $1,197,910 $1,346,870 $92,660,769 $137,687,800 $199,860 $166,862 $226,130 $104,609 $65,000 $19,727,031 $37,407 $99,805 $2,365,000 $76,790 Hosting $650,000 $3,647,500 $3,050,400 $1,520,271 $2,416,000 $1,021,000 $4,319,199 $1,400,000 $1,634,000 $1,224,000 $1,634,000 $78,300 $162,322 $203,850 $254,234 $63,656 $67,391 $27,906 $30,312 $1,835,000 2008 Contribution Hosting
Sport Canada Total $147,146,704
$197,105,538
$198,908,005
11.7 6.3 5.9 15.2 2.4 29.8 -0.9 4.2 2.1 17.3 8.8 -0.6
(Source: Canadian Heritage, 2012, Retrieved from http://www.pch.gc.ca/pgm/sc/cntrbtn/index-eng.cfm)
Table 11 Sport Canada - Total Sport Funding, Rate of Change 2008-2012) Year
2008 % Change 2009 % Change 2010 % Change 2011 % Change 2012 % Change
Contributions
$101,642,449 8.8 $111,347,030 8.7 $112,145,934 0.4 $147,146,704 23.8 $148,872,221 1.1
Hosting
$10,034,132 -96.7 $14,402,017 30.7 $21,541,253 33.1 $24,138,189 10.8 $23,121,852 -4.3
Athlete Assistance Program

$25,313,598 0.05 $26,486,000 4.4 $26,426,161 -0.2 $25,820,645 -2.3 $26,913,932 4.1
Grand Total
$136,990,179 -0.6 $152,235,047 10.0 $160,113,348 4.9 $197,105,538 18.8 $198,908,005 0.9
$101,642,449 $10,034,132 $136,990,179
126
127
Photo by basheertome (Flickr), available under
cc

Meeting A Preferred Future - A Case Study of Tennis Canada - Richard Norman

Uploaded by

Document Information

Original Title

Copyright

Available Formats

Share this document

Share or Embed Document

Sharing Options

Did you find this document useful?

Is this content inappropriate?

Copyright:

Available Formats

Meeting A Preferred Future - A Case Study of Tennis Canada - Richard Norman

Uploaded by

Copyright:

Available Formats

Meeting a Preferred Future:

A case study of Tennis Canada

Master of Design in Strategic Foresight and Innovation

Meeting a Preferred Future: A case study of Tennis Canada

Meeting a Preferred Future: A case study of Tennis Canada

10 Appendix C Additional Tables and Stakeholder Matrices .................................................................. 123 23 24 25 28 30

LIST OF TaBLES anD FIGUrES

Meeting a Preferred Future: A case study of Tennis Canada

Meeting a Preferred Future: A case study of Tennis Canada

Photo by sukhchander (Flickr), available under

Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial license.

Meeting a Preferred Future: A case study of Tennis Canada

Meeting a Preferred Future: A case study of Tennis Canada

What were the Key Findings?

What are the Recommendations to achieve a Preferred Future?

Why use Strategic Foresight and look at longrange planning horizons?

Other research possiblities

Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial license. Photo by taberandrew, Flickr

Meeting a Preferred Future: A case study of Tennis Canada

Photo: After All, Youre Still You (Flickr), available under

Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial license.

Meeting a Preferred Future: A case study of Tennis Canada

Meeting a Preferred Future: A case study of Tennis Canada

Meeting a Preferred Future: A case study of Tennis Canada

1.1 Strategic Foresight and the Three Horizons Model

1.2 Three Horizons

Visions of the Future

Pockets of future embedded in present 3rd Horizon TIME

1.3 Research Methodology and Signicance

Figure 2 Research Project Flow

Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial license. Photo by Basil D Soufi - Dubai, Flickr

Meeting a Preferred Future: A case study of Tennis Canada

Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial license. Photo by y.caradec3, Flickr

Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial license. Photo by y.caradec, Flickr

Meeting a Preferred Future: A case study of Tennis Canada

Meeting a Preferred Future: A case study of Tennis Canada

2 Sport, Society & Tennis

Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial license.

Meeting a Preferred Future: A case study of Tennis Canada

Meeting a Preferred Future: A case study of Tennis Canada

2.1 Sports Institutions & Social Organization

Meeting a Preferred Future: A case study of Tennis Canada

Meeting a Preferred Future: A case study of Tennis Canada

2.2 Modern Sport and Professionalism

Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial license Photo by basheertome, Flickr

2.3 Gender Equity and Body Image

Photo by Australian Paralympics, Flickr cc Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial license.

Photo by Edwin Martinez, Flickr cc Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial license.

Meeting a Preferred Future: A case study of Tennis Canada

2.4 Race & Representation in Tennis

Meeting a Preferred Future: A case study of Tennis Canada

Meeting a Preferred Future: A case study of Tennis Canada

2.5 Persistence of Socio-Cultural Themes

historic origin socio-cultural themes

Meeting a Preferred Future: A case study of Tennis Canada

Meeting a Preferred Future: A case study of Tennis Canada

3 Business Case Study: Tennis Canada

Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial license.

Meeting a Preferred Future: A case study of Tennis Canada

Meeting a Preferred Future: A case study of Tennis Canada

10 15 participation rate (percentage) 2005

Meeting a Preferred Future: A case study of Tennis Canada

Meeting a Preferred Future: A case study of Tennis Canada