The PICK

NFL Week 6 Outlook

by Smitty
Last week, I had a respectable 10-4 record picking games straight up for week 5 of the NFL season. I bounced back from a mediocre 8-7 record from the week before. I am now 56-22 overall picking NFL games outright for the entire season. The games that I lost on last week included the Saints @ Bears, Ravens @ Dolphins, Chargers @ Raiders, and Jets @ Falcons. After the Lions hung 40 points on the Bears the week before in a loss, surely the Bears would bounce back at home and knock the Saints from the ranks of the unbeaten. Bears quarterback Jay Cutler played well, but the Bears fell short to the Saints as they upped their record to 5-0. I would have possibly had the chance to have the Dolphins pick correct. However, Miami kicker Caleb Sturgis 57-yard field goal attempt with 38 seconds remaining in the game sailed wide left. The kick would have knotted up the contest with the Ravens and potentially sent the game into overtime. Terrelle Pryor returned to quarterback the Oakland Raiders last week. It was enough to spark the Raiders and their defense to a surprising 27-17 victory over the high-octane offense of Philip Rivers and the San Diego Chargers. The week before, Pryor was sidelined with a concussion and was replaced by backup quarterback Matt Flynn in a 24-14 home loss to then winless Washington. Flynn threw a pick in the dying moments of that game against the Redskins. Flynns career as a quarterback died as a result and the Raiders promptly cut Flynn from the squad this week. The New York Jets and rookie quarterback Geno Smith surprised on Monday night against the Falcons in a game that the Atlanta needed to win. Smith quickly grew up before our eyes, throwing for three touchdowns and leading the game winning drive to set up kicker Nick Folks 43-yard field goal as time expired. The loss dropped the Falcons to 1-4 on the year. Atlanta had only lost three games during the entire regular season last year. Marquee matchups in the NFL this week include the Packers traveling to Baltimore to face off against the Ravens, and those still undefeated Saints going to Foxboro to play the Patriots. One of the great NFL rivalries continues on Sunday night with the Redskins battling the Cowboys in an NFC East showdown. Another game shaping up to be a good one is the contest between the Colts and the Chargers on Monday night. Heres how I see the entire slate of NFL games shaping up for week 6 of the NFL season. The home team is on the right.

Sunday, 12:00 PM CT

Both the Green Bay Packers and the Baltimore Ravens enjoy significant home field advantages at their respective stadiums. However, this week the Ravens will enjoy the cozy confines of M&T Bank Stadium where they are 2-0 this year. Just when Baltimore seems like a down and out team on the decline, coach John Harbaugh and quarterback Joe Flacco rally the troops. The Ravens always seem to save their best for the stiffest competition, and the Packers will certainly fill that role this week. Like the Ravens, the Packers can never be counted out of a game, especially under the auspicious play of quarterback Aaron Rodgers. Both teams are coming off victories last week, with the Ravens sweating it out against the Dolphins 26-23 and the Packers manhandling division rival Detroit 22-9. The PICK: Ravens 27-24.

Sunday, 12:00 PM CT The Bills will start quarterback Thad Lewis on Sunday against the Bengals. Lewis was just elevated from the practice squad because starter E.J. Manuel went down with a right knee injury against the Cleveland Browns last week. Coach Doug Marrone claims that Thad Lewis knows the Bills playbook and should be prepared for Sundays game. Who am I to doubt Marrone? He has worked miracles with rookie E.J. Manuel who looks like he will have a bright future with the Bills if he stays healthy. However, NFL quarterbacks starting their first game following an injury to the starter this season has been a mixed bag. For every Brain Hoyer (Browns) and Matt Cassel (Vikings) who had success in their first game, there was Ryan Fitzpatrick (Titans), Mike Glennon (Buccaneers), and Matt Flynn (Raiders) who did fare so well. Look for the Bills to try to make Lewis successful via short passes and handing the ball off to running backs Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller. Jackson and Spiller have the Bills ranked third in rushing in the entire NFL at 152.6 yards a game. The Bengals cranked up the heat defensively on Pats quarterback Tom Brady last week, sacking him four times, intercepting him once, and ending Bradys streak of throwing a touchdown pass in 52 consecutive games. This was the way the Bengals defense was expected to play from the beginning of the season. The Cincy D currently ranks 8th in the NFL allowing 316.8 yards per game and 7th in points allowed with 17.4 per game. However, Cincinnatis offense hasnt lived up to its billing. Third year quarterback Andy Dalton was supposed to take the next step this year and become one of the premier signal callers in the NFL. Dalton has looked more like a game manager instead, and the Cincy offense has struggled. Like Tom Brady last week, Dalton also failed to throw a touchdown pass for his team. Dalton should be lighting it up every week with the weapons he has at wide receiver and tight end catching the ball. The Bengals have looked horrible on the road, going 0-2 and scoring a total of 27 points. However, Geno Atkins and the rest of the Cincinnati defense should pester inexperienced Bills quarterback Thad Lewis enough to score the victory on Sunday. The PICK: Bengals 26-17.

Sunday, 12:00 PM CT The Browns have met with success recently under quarterback Brian Hoyer, winning their last three games. Unfortunately, Hoyer was placed on injured reserve after tearing the ACL in his right knee last week. Quarterback Brandon Weeden who started the season for the Browns is now back at the helm. However, Weeden has not been able to make the Browns an offensive juggernaut and the talk a few weeks ago was how the Browns were looking for their quarterback of the future. Weeden has cement shoes in the pocket and has been sacked 16 times this year which is tied for the third highest total in the NFL. In the two games that Weeden started this year, the Browns scored a meager 16 points and went 0-2. It will be up to the Browns 4th ranked defensive unit to save the day, but will it be enough to keep the win streak going? The Lions have their own offensive problems and that was evident last week when they were beat by the Packers 22-9. It was a sad sight to see the best wide receiver in the game on the sideline. The Lions offensive woes were directly correlated to Calvin Johnsons absence on the field. Johnson has been suffering from swelling in the knee. The good news is that he practiced for the second straight day today sans the knee brace. However, he remains a game time decision for the Lions. This game is the hardest to handicap this week now that Weeden has taken over the controls for the injured Hoyer at quarterback for Cleveland. Also, the status of wide receiver Calvin Johnsons health for Sundays game creates a wealth of uncertainty. Johnson is one of a handful of players in the NFL that can be absolutely dominant and singlehandedly dictate the outcome of a game. Detroit will have to find other weapons to elevate their offensive game if Johnson doesnt play. Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford is head and shoulders above his counterpart Brandon Weeden and the Lions are still smarting from last weeks loss. The Browns wont score enough to win. The PICK: Lions 24-17.

Sunday, 12:00 PM CT The Rams were supposed to be the thorn in the side in the NFC West this year. After all, St. Louis showed last year they were capable of hanging with playoff contenders Seattle and San Francisco, going 1-1 against the former and 1-0-1 against the latter. Instead, the Rams have regressed in the absence of a running game that ranks 30th in the NFL. As a consequence, Rams quarterback Sam Bradford has had to throw way too much. Bradford is 4th in the league with 216 pass attempts and the unbalanced offense ranks 29th in the league. St. Louis has played against mediocre and poor teams fairly well, knocking off lowly Jacksonville last week 34-20. However, they have had their heads handed to them this year on the road by Dallas and San Francisco by a combined

score of 66-18. The Rams currently sit at 2-3 in the stacked NFC West and at their current pace will finish in the cellar of the division. The Texans were a sexy pick to make the Super Bowl this year. Houstons window of opportunity was wide open this year. They won the AFC South two years in a row and made it to the AFC Divisional Playoffs both years. This was the year that the Texans took the next step and advanced even further. However, Houston now resides at 2-3 and skepticism remains as to whether this team has the mental toughness to win it all. At the center of doubt is Texans quarterback Matt Schaub. Schaub set a dubious NFL record last week by recording a pick-six for the fourth consecutive game. Defenses are apparently on to this guy and he is having trouble disguising what hes going to do. However, Houston coach Gary Kubiak says he is going to stick with Schaub this weekend at quarterback. Hopefully, Schaub has regained his confidence this week for the sake of Houstons playoff chances. Look for the Texans to bounce back this week against a mediocre Rams team that has shown that they cant play well on the road against above average NFL teams. The Texans boast the NFLs #1 ranked defensive unit and are also tops against the pass. This will only make matters worse for Rams QB Bradford. The PICK: Texans 31-17.

Sunday, 12:00 PM CT The Raiders welcomed back quarterback Terrelle Pryor last week after he sat out for a week with a concussion. Pryor and underdog Oakland shut down division rival San Diego last week 27-17. The Raiders were projected to be one of the worst teams in the NFL this year, largely in part to Pryors inexperience. However, the team currently has a 2-3 record behind Pryors respectable 68.3% completion percentage and 229 yards on the ground. The Chiefs remain one of the NFLs undefeated teams. The acquisition of coach Andy Reid and quarterback Alex Smith has turned around a squad that finished with only two wins last season. The play of the Chiefs this year comes as a surprise to many. However, both Reid and Smith were successful in previous stints with other NFL teams. Kansas City also had six players make the Pro Bowl last year, which is amazing considering the teams paltry record of 2-14. So, the cupboard wasnt necessarily bare when Andy Reid and Alex Smith came aboard this year. The improved play of Kansas City is largely due to the teams defense. The Chiefs are #1 in scoring defense allowing a stingy 11.6 points per game. The unit ranks 7th in yardage allowed and is 4th in defending the pass. Oakland will not only have to contend with Kansas Citys defense, but also with the crowd noise at Arrowhead. A representative from the Guinness Book of World Records will be on hand tomorrow to see if the fans can break a month old record of 136.6

decibels set at CenturyLink Field, home of the NFLs Seattle Seahawks. The PICK: Chiefs 24-17. The Best of the Rest in the NFL Panthers @ Vikings Sunday, 12:00 PM CT The Vikings are allowing an average of 31 points per game this year and their lone win came against a winless Steelers team in London. One has to wonder if the Vikings best offensive weapon, Adrian Peterson, will be up for this game following the death of his son. The Panthers boast the NFLs third ranked defense in holding the Seahawks to 12 points and shutting out the Giants 38-0. The Panthers should be smarting from a 22-6 loss last week to the Arizona Cardinals. The PICK: Panthers 31-24 Steelers @ Jets Sunday, 12:00 PM CT The Steelers remain one of the NFLs worst teams in the absence of a running game. They also have had 74 points scored on them in the last two weeks. There doesnt seem to be any sign of improvement in sight. Everybody was projecting the Jets to finish at the bottom of the NFL this year. The rumors of the Jets demise were greatly exaggerated. New Yorks offensive and defensive lines are extremely physical, and the defense ranks second in the league and second against the rush. The Jets are only 1point favorites in Sundays game. I dont see it that way. The PICK: Jets 24-17. Eagles @ Buccaneers Sunday, 12:00 PM CT The Eagles are the NFLs version of a schizophrenic. The Eagles claim the second ranked offense in the league, first in rushing. However, Philly ranks 31st in defense and 30th in scoring defense, allowing a whopping average of 31.8 points per game. The 0-4 Bucs are dreadful offensively, scoring an average of 11 points per game, which is only behind Jacksonville. However, Tampa Bays defense has been formidable, allowing an average of 17.5 points per game. The Bucs have lost three games by a total of six points and hung tough with the undefeated Saints. If the Bucs defense cant contain the Eagles offense, maybe a case of MRSA will slow Philly down. The news out of Tampa this week is that three players have been infected with the antibiotic resistant bacteria. I think the Bucs get off the schneid this week and get in the win column. The PICK: Buccaneers 23-17. Jaguars @ Broncos Sunday, 3:05 PM CT The only drama here is how many points will quarterback Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos hang on the woeful Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday. The line opened at 28 this week and tied the record for the largest NFL point spread in history. The

Broncos defense is suspect and the Jags might possibly stay within the large number, which is currently at 27. The PICK: Broncos 45-20 Titans @ Seahawks Sunday, 3:05 PM CT I hope the Titans brought their earplugs because it is going to be loud at CenturyLink Field in Seattle, which has become the NFLs best home field advantage. The Seahawks look to extend their home winning streak to 11 games, as quarterback Russell Wilson has never lost a game there since taking over the team as a rookie. The Titans probably would have fared better if injured quarterback Jake Locker played in this game. Locker was beginning to come into his own posting big wins this year against the Jets, Chargers, and Steelers. Backup quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick is prone to throwing the big 4th quarter interception when the game is on the line. Expect Fitzpatrick to feel the pressure of the swarming Seahawks defense which may have the best secondary in the league. The PICK: Seahawks 30-20 Saints @ Patriots Sunday, 3:25 PM CT The Patriots rebound from a miserable loss last week to the Bengals where Tom Brady failed to throw a touchdown pass for the first time in 52 consecutive games. The Saints are possibly the best team in league and surprised me by beating the Bears on the road last week. However, it is difficult to win back-to-back games on the road, especially in Foxboro. The PICK: Patriots 23-20

Cardinals @ 49ers Sunday, 3:25 PM CT Arizona put together a terrific defensive effort last week in picking off Cam Newton three times in a 22-6 win at home against Carolina. However, the Cardinals are another Jekyll and Hyde team that plays better at home and gets pounded by superior teams on the road. The 49ers have found their mojo once again after struggling earlier this year. They looked like the team that went to the Super Bowl last year when they dismantled the Texans and the Rams the last two weeks by a combined score of 69-14. San Franciscos success is due in large part to the authoritative running of Frank Gore and a once again opportunistic defense. The PICK: 49ers 31-13 Redskins @ Cowboys Sunday, 7:30 PM CT

The Skins problems are well-documented this year as quarterback Robert Griffin III has not been able to lead his team to the same level of greatness that he did last year. However, he can blame much of that on the defense which ranks dead last in the NFL, allowing a monstrous 440.5 yards per game. The 1-3 Redskins better tighten up the defense quickly before the season gets away from them. Luckily, they are playing in a weak NFC East, led by 2-3 Dallas. The Cowboys are coming off a painful 51-48 loss to the Broncos where Dallas quarterback Tony Romo matched Denver QB Peyton Manning stride for stride before being picked off late in the game. The Cowboys may suffer an emotional letdown against the Redskins who really need a win. However, I think Dallas is still a better squad then Washington and Romo should exploit that horrible Redskins defense. The PICK: Cowboys 31-24 Colts @ Chargers Monday, 7:40 PM CT How long can the magic of the Colts last? There seems to be no end in sight to the winning ways of Indy as long as their quarterback is named Luck. The Colts have scored big victories this year against powerhouses San Francisco and Seattle. This week poses another tough task as Indy goes to face the San Diego Chargers. Its never easy for eastern teams to play teams on the West Coast. The Colts will have to do it for the second time in four weeks. They also are coming off a grueling win against the Seattle Seahawks last week. San Diego is coming off a bitter loss to division rival Oakland last week in a game that the Chargers were favored to win. The Chargers have alternated wins and losses this year, scoring 63 points in their two wins. Though I think Indy is the better team, I have to wonder if this is week Indianapolis will come crashing down to earth and San Diego will rise to the occasion. The PICK: Chargers 30-27