QUAMET1 Notes

Probability - an index which measures the chance or likelihood that an event resulting from a statistical experiment will occur. Statistical Inference - process of using sample information to draw conclusions about certain characteristics of a population that is under study.

The study of probability and statistical inference aids in the translation of sample information into something conclusive or inconclusive about the scientific system under study. It allows us to quantify the strength or confidence that we have in our conclusions. More importantly, the conclusion drawn about the scientific system being studied helps an individual in the decision-making process.

Experiment - a process which generates an observation or a measurement commonly referred to as raw data or information. An experiment is considered to be a random or chance process if:
1. all possible outcomes are known before the experiment is performed 2. no particular outcome can be predicted with certainty before the performance of the trial or experiment

Sample Space (S) - a list of all possible outcomes of an experiment defined in such a way that exactly one of the elements will occur. Sample Point (x) - refers to each possible outcome or element in the sample space

Three Ways of Defining a Sample Space:

1. Listing/Roster Method - done by enumerating all the

elements of the sample space 2. Defining Property Method - done by choosing a property or characteristic common to all sample points and then using this common characteristic to define the sample space 3. Tree Diagram - uses a tree to express the sequence of events of an experiment in chronological order.

Note: The way by which the sample space is defined is depends on how an individual defines the sample points of the experiment.

1.

a) Toss a coin two times b) Toss a coin, roll a die, then toss a coin c) A product comes out of a production line either as defective or non defective. Two products are inspected, one at a time.
2.

Define the sample space of the following experiments:

Two ordinary dice are tossed and we define the sample points (denoted by x) to be the sum of the numbers turning up. Use the defining property method to define the sample space. Define the sample space if sample points are defined as the difference between the numbers turning up

Event - subset of a sample space Simple Event - an event which consists of only one outcome Compound Event - an event which consists of more than one outcome and may be decomposed into simple events

Roll a die and observe the number appearing on the upper face. The following are some of the possible events:
A - event that an odd number appears B - event that an even number appears C - a 1 appears D - a 2 appears E - a 3 appears F - a 4 appears G - a 5 appears H - a 6 appears

Events A & B are known as compound events while events C to H are simple events.

1.

includes the possibility that only event A will happen or only event B will happen, or both A and B will happen at the same time. Terms used to imply union of events:
either event A or event B will occur one or the other will occur at least one of the two events will occur one of the two events will occur a/an event will occur

A U B - the set whose elements belong to A or B or both; referred to as the union between events A and B

2.

means that both events will happen at the same time Terms used to imply intersection of events:

A B - set whose members are elements of both A and B; referred to as the intersection between A & B

Note: If two events cannot happen at the same time, then they are said to be mutually exclusive events or disjoint events.

both A and B will happen neither event A nor B will happen (intersection of the complements)

3.

4.

The complement of A, A, is the set of all elements not found in A. A represents the event that A will not happen. If we let S be the sample space, then the complement of S (S) is known as the impossible event/empty set/null set.
S = ; S = S

 A Venn Diagram is a picture in which the universal U is represented by points In simple (usually circular) regions in the rectangle. Each circular region is labelled by a symbol designating the set for which it stands. The Venn Diagram was first employed by Leonhard Euler (1707 - 1783) and subsequently named after John Venn (1834 - 1923). Venn Diagram representations of the union bet. 2 events, intersection bet. 2 events, mutually exclusive events, and the complement of an event

AB
A B

A
A A

AUB
A B

AB=
A B

Venn Diagrams for more than 3 sets

4 sets

5 sets

Source: http://www.combinatorics.org/Surveys/ds5/VennGraphEJC.html

Suppose that out of a total group of 150 athletes surveyed, it is found that 90 take Vitamin A 53 take both A and B 88 take Vitamin B 55 take both A and C 97 take Vitamin C 57 take both B and C and 32 take all three. Question: How many take none of the three vitamins?

In a survey of 30 consumers of detergents, 5 people said they are loyal to brand A, while another 5 are loyal to brand B. Seven surveyed said they do not use either brands A, B nor C, but use some other detergent not included in the survey. A total of 10 consumers said they prefer brand A, and a total of 11 consumers said they prefer brand C. There were no one who used both brands B and C. Further, almost peculiarly, no one said they used A, B and C simultaneously. Find the number of consumers who:
Preferred brands A and B. Preferred brands A and C. Preferred brands A or B.

Preferred brands A or C.

There are 5 candidates for the EVP position and 6 candidates for the VP-Academics position in a certain student organization. Five candidates are listed in the VP-Activities, but closer inspection shows that there are 2 individuals listed as candidates in all three positions. Three individuals are running for both VP Activities but not for EVP. Two candidates are vying for the EVP position alone. What is the total number of individuals are running for the officerships?

Counting Theory - a set of techniques used for identifying the total number of possibilities of a statistical experiment without enumerating the elements of the sample space
Multiplication Rule - If an experiment can be performed in n1 ways on trial 1, and for each of these n1 ways, it can be performed in n2 ways on trial 2, and for each of these n2 ways, it can be performed in n3 ways on trial 3 and so on for k trials, then the total number of ways (nT) by which we can perform the entire experiment is:

nT = n1 x n2 x n3 x ...... x nk

 Addition Rule - If k outcomes are mutually exclusive, and outcome 1 can be performed in m1 ways, outcome 2 can be performed in m2 ways, and so on for k outcomes, then the total number of outcomes is given by:

mT = m1 + m2 + ...... + mk

1.

2.

Five chips numbered 1 to 5 are in a container. You are asked to get 3 chips from the container, one at a time. In how many ways can this experiment be performed or how many possible outcomes are there if sampling is done without replacement? with replacement? Consider the same problem as in # 1 above but this time, you are to get only one chip from the container. If the number on the chip is even, you have to roll a die. On the other hand, if the number on the chip is odd, you have to toss a coin. How many possible outcomes are there in this experiment?

3. Three boys and three girls are to sit in 6 chairs arranged in a straight line. How many seating arrangements are possible if:
a) there are no constraints? b) two girls quarrelling over one guy refuse to sit beside each other? c) if boys and girls are to alternate? d) The 3 boys and 3 girls actually form 3 couples. How many seating arrangements are possible if couples should sit beside each other? e) How many arrangements are possible if 3 people prefer to be seated together?

4. Given the numbers 0,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9

a) How many 3 digit numbers can be formed without repetition? b) How many of these 3 digit numbers are even? How many are odd? c) How many of these numbers are greater than 342? d) How many of the numbers greater than 342 are even? e) How many 3 digit numbers can be formed with repetition?

Simple Permutation - an ordered arrangement of distinct objects Symbol: nPr

where n = the total number of distinct objects to be arranged r = number of objects to be taken from n

Formula:

n nPr = -------(n-r)!

In how many ways can you arrange the 5 letters A, B, C, D and E if you take:
1. 2. 3. 4. 2 letters at a time? 3 letters at a time? 4 letters at a time? all letters at the same time?

Simple Combination - an arrangement of distinct objects without regard to order Symbol: nCr Formula: n! nCr = ----------r! (n-r)!

Consider 3 letters A, B and C. How many combinations of 2 letters are possible?

Circular Permutation - arrangement of objects in a circle Technique: In order to arrange objects in a circle, it is important to have a reference point. This is done by fixing one of the objects. Symbol: Pnc read as permutation of n objects in a circle Formula: Pnc = (n-1)!

1. 2.

In how many ways can we arrange four boys in a round table? In how many ways can we arrange 3 boys and 3 girls in a circular table if:
a) 2 boys hate each other and would not want to sit beside each other? b) boys and girls are to alternate? c) the 3 boys and 3 girls form 3 couples and they are to sit beside each other?

Arrangement of Similar Objects

Objective: To find the number of permutations of n objects all taken at the same time; n1 of which are of type 1, n2 of which are of type 2, ..., nk of which are of type k, where:

Formula:

In how many ways can we arrange 5 objects, 3 of which are A and 2 are B? In this problem, we have n=5; n1=3 and n2=2 Enumerating the total number of ways, we have the following: AAABB BABAA ABABA BBAAA 5! AABAB BAAAB Ans. = 10 ways or ----- = 10 ways AABBA BAABA 3! 2! ABBAA ABAAB 2. Given a true-false exam, if you know that 6 of the items have true as answer and 4 have false as answer, in how many ways could you answer the exam? 10! Ans. = ---------- = 210 ways 6! 4!
1.

Partitioning of n objects into cells

Objective: To find the number of permutations of n objects all taken at the same time; n1 of which are to be placed in cell 1, n2 of which are to be placed in cell 2, ..., nk of which are to be placed in cell k where:

Formula:

In how many ways can 4 people occupy 2 rooms if 2 people are to occupy each room? 4! Ans. = ------- = 6 ways 2! 2! What if there are no constraints? Room 1 Room 2 Case 1: 1 3 4!/1!3! = 4 ways Case 2: 2 2 4!/2!2! = 6 ways Case 3: 3 1 4!/3!1! = 4 ways Ans. = 14 ways

Let: A - a particular event in the sample space P(A) or PA - probability that event A will occur Axiom 1: 0 PA 1 Axiom 2: PA = 1 is the certain event or the probability of the entire sample space. Axiom 3: PA = 0 is the improbable event. Axiom 4: If the probabilities of events in the sample space are added, the result should be unity.

Ways of Measuring Probability 1. Classical Concept - the probabilities of events can be known even w/o data gathering. - used in classical experiments such as the rolling of a die or the tossing of a coin.
where: n(A) - subset of the sample space pertaining to event A N - total sample space

A coin is tossed 5 times. What is the probability that:

a) exactly 3 heads will occur? b) at least 2 heads will occur?

Ways of Measuring Probability 2. Relative Frequency - makes use of historical data or survey results to determine probabilities.
where: fA frequency of occurrence of A fT - total number of observations 3. Subjective Assessment - an expert in the field gives an educated guess of the probability.

1.

where: P(AB) - probability that both A and B will happen at the same time P(A) - includes the possibility that event B will happen P(B) - includes the possibility that event A will happen From the above definition of P(AUB), it follows that: P(AUBUC) = P(A) + P(B) - P(AB) + P(C) - P(AC) P(BC) + P(ABC)

probability that at least one of the 2 events will occur (A only, B only, both A & B)

P(AUB) = P(A) + P(B) - P(AB)

2. P(AUB) = P(A) + P(B) if A and B are mutually exclusive events.

It follows that: P(A1UA2UA3U ... Ak) = P(A1) + P(A2) + P(A3) + ... + P(Ak) if all events are mutually exclusive
3.

P(A) = 1 - P(A)

probability that event A will not happen

From the Venn Diagram, the probability of the entire sample space can actually be expressed as: P(Sample Space) = P(AB) + P(AB) + P(AB) + P(AB)

Contingency Table - a tool used to facilitate the calculation of probabilities involving two events. B B Total -------------------------------------A P(AB) P(AB) P(A) A P(AB) P(AB) P(A) -------------------------------------Total P(B) P(B) 1

In an office, there are 2 secretaries. The probability that secretary 1 is present in any given day is 92% while the probability that secretary 2 is present in any given day is 98%. The probability that both will be present in a given day is 91%. In a given day, what is the probability that: a) either secretary 1 or secretary 2 is present b) neither secretary 1 nor secretary 2 is present c) only secretary 1 is present d) a secretary is not available to do a job e) exactly one secretary is absent

Conditional Probability - probability that an event will occur given that some other event has already occurred.
serves to limit or reduce the sample space Symbol: P(A/B) read as probability of A given B

Formula:

P(AB) P(A/B) = -------------P(B)

Roll a die twice.

a) What is the probability of getting a 4? b) What is the probability of getting a 4 given that the other die shows a 5?

From the conditional probability formula: P(AB) P(A/B) = ------- P(AB) = P(B) * P(A/B) P(B) P(AB) P(B/A) = -------- P(AB) = P(A) * (B/A) P(A) P(AB) = P(A) * P(B) if 2 events are independent of each other, meaning, the probability of occurrence of event B is not affected by the probability of occurrence of event A and viceversa.

Instead of being concerned with deducing the consequences arising from a given hypothesis, Reverend Thomas Bayes concentrated on making hypotheses from the observation of the consequences. Normally, we are always interested in finding the P(effect/cause). Bayes theorem, on the other hand, tries to find the P(cause/effect).

There are 3 bins containing red and green pens. Bin 1 contains 4 red pens and 2 green pens. Bin 2 has 2 red pens and 3 green pens while bin 3 has 6 red pens and 1 green pen. A red pen was obtained. What is the probability that the red pen obtained was from bin 2?