World population

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Population density (people per km²) by country, 2006

Population by region as a percentage of world population (1750–2005)

The term world population commonly refers to the total number of living humans on
Earth at a given time. As of 9 July 2009 (UTC), the Earth's population is estimated by the
United States Census Bureau to be 6.77 billion.[1] The world population has been growing
continuously since the end of the Black Death around 1400.[2] There were also short term
falls at other times due to plague, for example in the mid 17th century.[citation needed] The
fastest rates of world population growth (above 1.8%) were seen briefly during the 1950s
then for a longer period during the 1960s and 1970s (see graph). According to population
projections, world population will continue to grow until around 2050. The 2008 rate of
growth has almost halved since its peak of 2.2% per year, which was reached in 1963.
World births have levelled off at about 134-million-per-year, since their peak at 163-
million in the late 1990s, and are expected to remain constant. However, deaths are only
around 57 million per year, and are expected to increase to 90 million by the year 2050.
Since births outnumber deaths, the world's population is expected to reach about 9 billion
by the year 2040.[3][4]

Contents
[hide]
 • 1 Population figures
• 2 Rate of increase
o 2.1 Models
o 2.2 Milestones
o 2.3 Years for Population to Double
• 3 Distribution
• 4 The world's most populous nations
• 5 Ethnicity
• 6 Demographics of youth
• 7 Forecast
• 8 Predictions based on population growth
• 9 Number of humans who have ever lived
• 10 See also
• 11 Further resources
• 12 References

• 13 External links

[edit] Population figures

A dramatic population bottleneck is theorized for the period around 70,000 BCE (see
Toba catastrophe theory). After this time and until the development of agriculture, it is
estimated that the world population stabilized at about one million people whose
subsistence entailed hunting and foraging, a lifestyle that by its nature ensured a low
population density. It is estimated that over 55 million people lived in the combined
eastern and western Roman Empire (300–400 AD).[5] The Plague of Justinian caused
Europe's population to drop by around 50% between 541 and the 700s.[6] The Black
Death pandemic in the 14th century may have reduced the world's population from an
estimated 450 million to between 350 and 375 million in 1400.[7]

At the founding of the Ming dynasty in 1368, China's population was reported to be close
to 60 million, and toward the end of the dynasty in 1644 it might have approached 150
million.[8] New crops that had come to Asia from the Americas via the Spanish colonizers
in the 16th century contributed to the population growth.[9] Encounters between European
explorers and populations in the rest of the world often introduced local epidemics of
extraordinary virulence. Archaeological evidence indicates that the death of 90 to 95% of
the Native American population of the New World was caused by Old World diseases
such as smallpox, measles, and influenza.[10] Over the centuries, the Europeans had
developed high degrees of immunity to these diseases, while the indigenous peoples had
no such immunity.[11]

During the Agricultural and Industrial Revolutions, the life expectancy of children
increased dramatically.[12] The percentage of the children born in London who died before
the age of five decreased from 74.5% in 1730-1749 to 31.8% in 1810-1829.[13] Europe’s
population doubled during the 18th century, from roughly 100 million to almost 200
million, and doubled again during the 19th century.[14] The population of the Indian
subcontinent, which stood at about 125 million in 1750, had reached 389 million by
1941.[15]

Below is a table with historical and predicted population figures shown in

millions.[16][17][18][19]
The availability of historical population figures varies by region.

World historical and predicted populations (in millions)[20]

Region 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 1999 2008 2050 2150
World 791 978 1,262 1,650 2,521 5,978 6,707 8,909 9,746
Africa 106 107 111 133 221 767 973 1,766 2,308
Asia 502 635 809 947 1,402 3,634 4,054 5,268 5,561
Europe 163 203 276 408 547 729 732 628 517
Latin
America and
16 24 38 74 167 511 577 809 912
the
Caribbean *
Northern
2 7 26 82 172 307 337 392 398
America *
Oceania 2 2 2 6 13 30 34 46 51
World historical and predicted populations by percentage distribution
Region 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 1999 2008 2050 2150
World 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
Africa 13.4 10.9 8.8 8.1 8.8 12.8 14.5 19.8 23.7
Asia 63.5 64.9 64.1 57.4 55.6 60.8 60.4 59.1 57.1
Europe 20.6 20.8 21.9 24.7 21.7 12.2 10.9 7.0 5.3
Latin
America and
2.0 2.5 3.0 4.5 6.6 8.5 8.6 9.1 9.4
the
Caribbean *
Northern
0.3 0.7 2.1 5.0 6.8 5.1 5.0 4.4 4.1
America *
Oceania 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
Estimated world population at various dates (in thousands)
Latin Northern
Year World Africa Asia Europe Oceania Notes
America * America*
70,000 [21]
< 1,000
BCE
10,000
1,000
BCE
9000
3,000
BCE
[22]
8000 5,000
 BCE
7000
7,000
BCE
6000
10,000
BCE
5000
15,000
BCE
4000
20,000
BCE
3000
25,000
BCE
2000
35,000
BCE
1000 [22]
50,000
BCE
500 [22]
100,000
BCE
[23]
1 200,000
1000 310,000
1750 791,000 106,000 502,000 163,000 16,000 2,000 2,000
1800 978,000 107,000 635,000 203,000 24,000 7,000 2,000
1850 1,262,000 111,000 809,000 276,000 38,000 26,000 2,000
1900 1,650,000 133,000 947,000 408,000 74,000 82,000 6,000
1950 2,518,629 221,214 1,398,488 547,403 167,097 171,616 12,812
1955 2,755,823 246,746 1,541,947 575,184 190,797 186,884 14,265
1960 2,981,659 277,398 1,674,336 601,401 209,303 204,152 15,888
1965 3,334,874 313,744 1,899,424 634,026 250,452 219,570 17,657
1970 3,692,492 357,283 2,143,118 655,855 284,856 231,937 19,443
1975 4,068,109 408,160 2,397,512 675,542 321,906 243,425 21,564
1980 4,434,682 469,618 2,632,335 692,431 361,401 256,068 22,828
1985 4,830,979 541,814 2,887,552 706,009 401,469 269,456 24,678
1990 5,263,593 622,443 3,167,807 721,582 441,525 283,549 26,687
1995 5,674,380 707,462 3,430,052 727,405 481,099 299,438 28,924
2000 6,070,581 795,671 3,679,737 727,986 520,229 315,915 31,043
2005 6,453,628 887,964 3,917,508 724,722 558,281 332,156 32,998
Jul. 1,
6,706,993 972,752 4,053,868 731,683 577,147 337,168 34,375 [1]
2008
Latin Northern
Year World Africa Asia Europe Oceania Notes
America* America*

* Northern America comprises the northern countries and territories of North America:
Canada, the United States, Greenland, Bermuda, and St. Pierre and Miquelon. Latin
America comprises Middle America (Mexico, the nations of Central America, and the
Caribbean) and South America.
[edit] Rate of increase
Main article: Population growth

Population evolution in different continents. The vertical axis is logarithmic and is

millions of people.

Different regions have different rates of population growth. According to the above table,
the growth in population of the different regions from 2000 to 2005 was:

237.771 million in Asia

92.293 million in Africa
38.052 million in Latin America
16.241 million in Northern America
1.955 million in Oceania
-3.264 million in Europe
383.047 million in the whole world

In the 20th century, the world saw the biggest increase in its population in human history
due to lessening of the mortality rate in many countries due to medical advances and
massive increase in agricultural productivity attributed to the Green Revolution.[24][25][26]

In 2000, the United Nations estimated that the world's population was growing at the rate
of 1.14% (or about 75 million people) per year,[27] down from a peak of 88 million per
year in 1989. In the last few centuries, the number of people living on Earth has increased
many times over. By the year 2000, there were 10 times as many people on Earth as there
were 300 years ago. According to data from the CIA's 2005–2006 World Factbooks, the
world human population increased by 203,800 every day.[28] The CIA Factbook increased
this to 211,090 people every day in 2007, and again to 220,980 people every day in 2009.
Map of countries and territories by fertility rate

Globally, the population growth rate has been steadily declining from its peak of 2.19%
in 1963, but growth remains high in Latin America, the Middle East and Sub-Saharan
Africa.[29]

In some countries there is negative population growth (i.e. net decrease in population
over time), especially in Central and Eastern Europe (mainly due to low fertility rates)
and Southern Africa (due to the high number of HIV-related deaths). Within the next
decade, Japan and some countries in Western Europe are also expected to encounter
negative population growth due to sub-replacement fertility rates.

The United Nations states that population growth is rapidly declining due to the
demographic transition. The world population is expected to peak at 9.2 billion in
2050.[2]

Population (est.) Population (est.) 10,000 World population

10,000 BC–2000 AD. BC–2000 AD in log y Increase rate 1950–
1950–2000
scale 2000

[edit] Models

Hoerner (1975) proposed the following formula:[30]

where

• N is current population
• T is the current year
• C = 2·1011
• T0 = 2025

but this represents hyperbolic growth with an infinite population in 2025.

According to Kapitza (1997)[31], the population grew between 67000 b.c. and 1965, and
the word population growth formula is:

where

• N is current population
• T is the current year
• C = (1.86±0.01)·1011
• T0 = 2007±1
• τ = 42±1

The transition from hyperbolic growth to slower rates of growth is called demographic
transition.

[edit] Milestones

World Population Milestones (Billions - estimated).

World population estimates milestones .
Population 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
(in billions)
Year 1804 1927 1959 1974 1987 1999 2012 2025 2040
Years elapsed 123 32 14.75 13.25 12.25 12.33 13 15

There is currently no estimation on the exact day the world's population surpassed both
the 1 and 2 billion marks. The day of 3 and 4 billion were not officially celebrated, but
the International Database of the U.S. Census Bureau places them around July 1959, and
April 1974. The United Nations did determine, and celebrate, the "Day of 5 billion" (July
11, 1987), and the "Day of 6 billion" (October 12, 1999). The U.S. Census bureau,
International Programs division, currently estimated that the world reached 6 billion on
April 21, 1999 (several months earlier than the official UN day). The "Day of 7 billion"
has been targeted by the Census Bureau to be in February 2012.[32]

[edit] Years for Population to Double

Including some more estimates (together with an interpolated number for year 950), the
world population has been doubled or will double in the following years (with two
different starting points). Note how, during the 2nd millennium, each doubling has taken
roughly half as long as the previous doubling. However, it is unlikely that there will be
another doubling in the current century.[33]

Years for Population to Double

Starting at 250 million Starting at 375 million
Population 0.25 0.5 1 2 4 8 0.375 0.75 1.5 3 6
(in billions)
Year 950 1600 1804 1927 1974 2025 1420 1720 1875 1959 1999
Years elapsed 650 204 123 47 51 300 155 84 40

[edit] Distribution

Population density map of the world in 1994, when the world's population was 5.6
billion; Observe the high densities in the Indo-Gangetic and North China plains, the
Sichuan Basin, the Nile river delta, Southern Japan, Western Europe, Java, and the
Boston-Washington corridor.
Main article: Population density
Asia accounts for over 60% of the world population with almost 3.8 billion people. The
People's Republic of China and India alone comprise 20% and 17% respectively. Africa
follows with 840 million people, 12% of the world's population. Europe's 710 million
people make up 11% of the world's population. North America is home to 514 million
(8%), South America to 371 million (5.3%), and Australia to 21 million (0.3%).

[edit] The world's most populous nations

Further information: List of countries and dependencies by population density and List of
countries by population

Map of countries by population

The 10 most densely populated countries
Area Density (Pop per
Rank Country Population Notes
(km²) km²)
[34]
1 Monaco 32,719 1.95 16,779
2 Singapore 4,620,657 707.1 6,535
[35]
3 Vatican City 824 0.44 1,873
4 Maldives 385,375 298 1,293
5 Malta 404,032 316 1,279
[36]
6 Bahrain 723,967 665 1,089
[37]
7 Bangladesh 155,688,660 147,570 1,055
Palestinian
8 4,223,760 6,020 702
territories
9 Nauru 13,918 21 663
Republic of China [35]
10 22,955,395 36,190 634
("Taiwan")
Population by region, 2007
The 16 countries with the largest total population:
Country / % of world
Rank Population Date Source
Territory population
China March 25, Chinese Population
1 (excluding Hong 1,329,740,000 19.66% Clock[38]
Kong and Macau)
2009
March 3, Indian Population
2 India 1,145,174,000 16.94% clock
2009
European January 1,
— 499,673,300 7.39% Eurostat estimate
Union 2009
March 2, Official USA
3 United States 305,924,270 4.53% Population clock
2009
March 3, Indonesian
4 Indonesia 229,631,355 3.4% Population clock
2009
March 3, Brazilian Population
5 Brazil 190,765,170 2.82% clock
2009
April 15, Pakistani Population
6 Pakistan 166,137,500 2.45% clock
2009
March 2, Private Bangladeshi
7 Bangladesh 155,688,660 2.3% Population clock
2009
8 Nigeria 148,235,170 2.19% UN estimate
March 3, Russian Population
9 Russia 141,849,333 2.1% Clock
2009
March 2, Japanese Statistics
10 Japan 127,170,110 1.88% Bureau
2009
11 Mexico 111,077,375 March 2, 1.64% Private Mexican
 2009 Population Clock
March 2, Private Filipino
12 Philippines 93,843,460 1.39% Population Clock
2009
March 2, Private Vietnamese
13 Vietnam 86,709,095 1.28% Population Clock
2009
December Federal Statistical
14 Germany 82,060,000 1.21% Office of Germany
2008
Ethiopia Central
15 Ethiopia 79,221,000 July 2008 1.18% Statistics Agency
March 3, Egyptian Population
16 Egypt 75,973,137 1.12% Clock
2009

Approximately 4.51 billion people live in these 16 countries, representing roughly two-
thirds (66.7%) of the world's population as of February 2009.

Countries ranking in the top 40 both in terms of total population (more than 29 million
people) and population density (more than 310 people per square kilometer):
Density (Pop. per
Country Population Notes
km²)
India 1,160,139,960 352.9 Second largest country
Largest fast growing
Bangladesh 155,688,660 1,055.0
country
Japan 127,170,110 336.5 Declining in population
Philippines 93,843,460 312.8 Fast growing country
South Korea 49,354,980 493.4 Steady in population

[edit] Ethnicity
Main article: List of ethnic groups

The world is made up of thousands of ethnic groups. The single largest ethnic group on
the planet by far is Han Chinese, which represents 19.73% of the global population. For
comparison 6.06% of the planet's population is of full or partial Spanish ancestry, and on
a wider scale 14.2% of earth's population is of Sub-Saharan descent (those identifying as
'Black')[citation needed].

[edit] Demographics of youth

According to the 2006 CIA World Factbook, around 27% of the world's population is
below 15 years of age.[39]
Before adding mortality rates, the 1990s saw the greatest number of raw births
worldwide, especially in the years after 1995, despite the fact that the birth rate was not
as high as in the 1960s. In fact, because of the 163 million-per-year raw births after 1995,
the time it took to reach the next 109 reached its fastest pace (only 12 years), as world
population reached 6 billion people in 1999, when at the beginning of the decade, the
reaching was designated for the year 2000, by most demographers. These people aged 9
through 18 make up these births today, and are either from the late Generation Y group,
or are in the Generation Z group.

1985–1990 marked the period with the fastest yearly population change in world history.
Even though the early 1960s had a greater growth rate than in the mid and late 1980s, the
population change hovered around 83 million people in the five-year period, with an all-
time growth change of nearly 88 million in 1990. The reason is that the world's
population was greater in the mid- and late-1980s (around 5 billion) than in the early
1960s (around 3 billion), which meant that the growth rate in the 1980s was no factor on
the dramatic population change. People aged 19 to 24 make up these births today, and are
a part of Generation Y.

[edit] Forecast
Main article: World population estimates
See also: Overpopulation
UN (medium variant, 2008 rev.) and U.S. Census Bureau (June 2009) estimates[40][41]
UN est US est
Year Diff. Diff.
(billions) (billions)
2000 6.1 - 6.0 -
2010 6.9 0.8 6.8 0.8
2020 7.7 0.8 7.6 0.8
2030 8.3 0.6 8.3 0.7
2040 8.8 0.5 8.8 0.5
2050 9.1 0.3 9.3 0.5
In the long run, the future population growth of the world is difficult to predict and the
UN and US Census Bureau give different estimates. Birth rates are declining slightly on
average, but vary greatly between developed countries (where birth rates are often at or
below replacement levels), developing countries, and different ethnicities. Death rates can
change unexpectedly due to disease, wars and catastrophes, or advances in medicine. The
UN itself has issued multiple projections of future world population, based on different
assumptions. Over the last 10 years, the UN had consistently revised these projections
downward, until the 2006 revision issued March 14, 2007 revised the 2050 mid-range
estimate upwards by 273 million.

The United States Census Bureau issued a revised forecast for world population that
increased its projection for the year 2050 to above 9.4 billion people (which was the UN's
1996 projection for 2050), up from 9.1 billion people. A new US Census Bureau revision
from June 18, 2008 has increased its projections further, to beyond 9.5 billion in 2050.
Other projections are that the world's population will eventually crest, though it is
uncertain when or how. In some scenarios, it will crest as early as around 2050 at under 9
billion, or 10 to 11 billion, due to gradually decreasing birth rates.[16]

In other scenarios, disasters triggered by the growing population's demand for scarce
resources will eventually lead to a sudden population crash, or even a Malthusian
catastrophe (also see overpopulation and food security).

UN estimates (in thousands).[16][18][42]

Latin US and
Year World Africa Asia Europe Oceania
America Canada
795,671 3,679,737 727,986 520,229 315,915 31,043
2000 6,070,581
(13.1%) (60.6%) (12.0%) (8.6%) (5.2%) (0.5%)
887,964 3,917,508 724,722 558,281 332,156 32,998
2005 6,453,628
(13.8%) (60.7%) (11.2%) (8.7%) (5.1%) (0.5%)
984,225 4,148,948 719,714 594,436 348,139 34,821
2010 6,830,283
(14.4%) (60.7%) (10.5%) (8.7%) (5.1%) (0.5%)
1,084,540 4,370,522 713,402 628,260 363,953 36,569
2015 7,197,247
(15.1%) (60.7%) (9.9%) (8.7%) (5.1%) (0.5%)
1,187,584 4,570,131 705,410 659,248 379,589 38,275
2020 7,540,237
(15.7%) (60.6%) (9.4%) (8.7%) (5.0%) (0.5%)
1,292,085 4,742,232 696,036 686,857 394,312 39,933
2025 7,851,455
(16.5%) (60.4%) (8.9%) (8.7%) (5.0%) (0.5%)
1,398,004 4,886,647 685,440 711,058 407,532 41,468
2030 8,130,149
(17.2%) (60.1%) (8.4%) (8.7%) (5.0%) (0.5%)
1,504,179 5,006,700 673,638 731,591 419,273 42,803
2035 8,378,184
(18.0%) (59.8%) (8.0%) (8.7%) (5.0%) (0.5%)
1,608,329 5,103,021 660,645 747,953 429,706 43,938
2040 8,593,591
(18.7%) (59.4%) (8.0%) (8.7%) (5.0%) (0.5%)
1,708,407 5,175,311 646,630 759,955 439,163 44,929
2045 8,774,394
(19.5%) (59.0%) (7.4%) (8.7%) (5.0%) (0.5%)
1,803,298 5,217,202 653,323 767,685 447,931 45,815
2050 8,918,724
(20.2%) (58.5%) (7.3%) (8.6%) (5.0%) (0.5%)

[edit] Predictions based on population growth

In 1798 Thomas Malthus incorrectly predicted that population growth would outrun food
supply by the mid 19th century. In 1968, Paul R. Ehrlich reprised this argument in The
Population Bomb, predicting famine in the 1970s and 1980s. The dire predictions of
Ehrlich and other neo-Malthusians were vigorously challenged by a number of
economists, notably Julian Lincoln Simon. Agricultural research already under way, such
as the green revolution, led to dramatic improvements in crop yields. Food production
has kept pace with population growth, but Malthusians point out the green revolution
relies heavily on petroleum-based fertilizers, and that many crops have become so
genetically uniform that a crop failure would be very widespread. Food prices in the early
21st century are rising sharply on a global scale, and causing serious malnutrition to
spread widely.[43]

From 1950 to 1984, as the Green Revolution transformed agriculture around the world,
grain production increased by 250%. The energy for the Green Revolution was provided
by fossil fuels in the form of fertilizers (natural gas), pesticides (oil), and hydrocarbon-
fueled irrigation.[44] The peaking of world hydrocarbon production (Peak oil) may test
Malthus and Ehrlich critics.[45][46] As of May 2008, the price of grain has been pushed up
by increased farming for use in biofuels,[47] world oil prices at over $140 per barrel,[48]
global population growth,[49] climate change,[50] loss of agricultural land to residential and
industrial development,[51][52] and growing consumer demand in China and India[53][54].
Food riots have recently occurred in many countries across the world.[55][56][57]

The world population has grown by about four billion since the beginning of the Green
Revolution and most believe that, without the Revolution, there would be greater famine
and malnutrition than the UN presently documents (approximately 850 million people
suffering from chronic malnutrition in 2005).[58]

[edit] Number of humans who have ever lived

In the 1970s it was popular to believe that 75% of all the people who had ever lived were
alive in the 1970s, which would have put the total number of people who ever lived as of
the 1970s as less than the current number of people alive today. This view was eventually
debunked as a myth.[59] A more recent estimate of the total number of people who have
ever lived was prepared by Carl Haub of the Population Reference Bureau in 1995 and
subsequently updated in 2002; the updated figure was approximately 106 billion.[60][61]
Haub characterized this figure as an estimate which required "selecting population sizes
for different points from antiquity to the present and applying assumed birth rates to each
period".[61] Given an estimated global population of 6.2 billion in 2002, it could be
inferred that about 6% of all people who had ever existed were alive in 2002.[60]

Other estimates of the total number of people who have ever lived range approximately
from 45 billion to 125 billion, with the more robust of these falling in the 90–110 billion
range.[citation needed] It is difficult to estimate for the following reasons:[citation needed]

• The set of specific characteristics which define a human being and distinguish
early Homo sapiens from earlier or related species continues to be a subject of
intense research and debate. It is thus not possible to know when to begin the
count, nor which hominids to include. See in this regard also Sorites paradox.
• Even if the scientific community reached wide consensus regarding which
characteristics distinguished human beings, it would be nearly impossible to
pinpoint the time of their first appearance to even the nearest millennium because
the fossil record is simply too sparse. Only a few thousand fossils of early humans
have been found, most no bigger than a tooth or a knucklebone. These bone
fragments are used to extrapolate the population distribution of millions of early
human beings spread across the continents.
 • Robust statistical data only exist for the last two or three centuries. Until the late
18th century, few nations, kingdoms, or empires had ever performed an accurate
census. In many early attempts, such as Ancient Egypt and in the Persian Empire
the focus was on counting merely a subset of the people for purposes of taxation
or military service.[62] All claims of population sizes preceding the 18th century
are estimates, and thus the margin of error for the total number of humans who
have ever lived should be in the billions, or even tens of billions of people.
• A critical item for the estimation is life expectancy. Using a figure of 20 years and
the population estimates above, one can compute about 58 billion. Using a figure
of 40 yields half of that. Life expectancy varies greatly when taking into account
children who died within the first year of birth, a number very difficult to estimate
for earlier times.

Ibd