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Monday, 08 December 2008

Six Party Talks: What does the Future Hold?

Mr. Leonard C. Perkins, CIV; USFK J2/JIOC-K OSINT

Summary: The main issue for this round of Six Party Talks (6PT) will be getting the approval
and signatures of the members of the 6PT on an agreement on how to verify the DPRK’s
nuclear declaration. Despite government officials from the US, ROK, Japan, and Russia
claiming the 6PT should continue and increased US-DPRK bilateral discussions shouldn’t affect
the 6PT process, there is ample evidence in the media to indicate that there is considerable
angst in the ROK and Japan on their role and the future of the talks. There is also concern the
new US administration may replace the existing 6PT negotiators with new ones, thus disrupting
the continuity and familiarity established between the US and DPRK representatives. In the
end, it appears the 6PT will continue in their present form for at least this meeting. If the DPRK
does not obtain the concessions it seeks in this round of talks, it will most likely wait until the
new US administration comes into power and then seek more direct talks with the US. It
remains to be seen whether US-DPRK bilateral discussions will actually take place and if they
do, whether it will have the feared effect of reducing the influence of other 6PT members and
endangering the overall future of the process.

Please direct your questions and comments to MAJ Steve Sin, Chief, USFK J2 OSINT:
DSN – (315) 725-5045, Commercial – +82-2-7915-5045, or Email – CIOCCAOSINT@us.army.mil

Information contained in this document is entirely derived from unclassified, open source, information.
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Copying and dissemination is prohibited without permission of the copyright owners.

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6PT Current Status

The 6PT chief negotiators meeting will begin today

in Beijing after a five month recess. The last chief
negotiators meeting was held in Beijing from 10 – 12
Jul.

The main issue for this meeting will be getting the

approval and signatures of the members of the 6PT
on an agreement on how to verify the DPRK’s
nuclear declaration.

The main sticking point in this agreement will be the

use of the term “sampling”, what that entails, and whether the DPRK will allow samples to be
taken out of the country for independent verification.

Chief negotiators from the US, Japan, and ROK met in Tokyo on 03 Dec to seek common
ground on a document to commit the DPRK to allow inspectors to take samples from its nuclear
facilities.

After the trilateral meeting in Tokyo, Japan’s chief negotiator said “There must be a clear
commitment in writing" on allowing inspectors to take samples from North Korean nuclear
facilities, "There can not be any misunderstanding regarding the verification procedures."

Christopher Hill told Kyodo News in Tokyo after the meeting that he is not particularly worried
about establishing a written six-way protocol for verifying North Korea's declaration of its nuclear
programs as he is more concerned about ''getting to the actual verification process.''

Sung Kim, the U.S. special envoy to the 6PT, also hinted at some flexibility in the disputes over
sampling “The wording itself is important. But a common understanding among all the related
parties is more important," he said during his trip last week to Jeju Island for a U.N.
disarmament forum.

This trilateral meeting was in advance of a one-on-one meeting between US chief negotiator
Christopher Hill and DPRK chief negotiator Kim Kye Kwan in Singapore on 04 Dec. Hill said the
bilateral talks in Singapore were aimed at clarifying a deal made with Kim in October on ways to
verify the DPRK’s declaration of its nuclear assets.

Another item likely to be discussed will be energy resources provided to the DRPK as
compensation for halting its nuclear program. This will include discussions on providing energy
to the DPRK from countries outside of the 6PT. This is in response to Japan’s refusal to provide
its share of the promised energy aid until the DPRK makes progress on its pledge to look further
into the abductees issue.

Lastly, this will be the final chief negotiators meeting during the Bush administration and is only
the second 6PT meeting for delegates from the ROK, PRC, Japan, and Russia, all of whom
joined the 6PT in early 2008. No delegates from the first 6PT meeting remain, though the
DPRK’s Kim Kye Kwan has been involved since 2003 and US’ Christopher Hill since 2005.

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Country 2003 2008

DPRK Kim Yong Il Kim Kye Gwan
ROK Lee Soo Hyuck Kim Sook
PRC Wang Yi Wu Dawei
Japan Mitoji Yabunaka Akitaka Saiki
Russia Alexander Losiukov Alexei Borodavkin
US James Kelly Christopher Hill

6PT Countries’ Activity during Recess

DPRK: During the recess, chief negotiators from the DPRK and US met
in Oct and agreed to a verification protocol. Shortly thereafter, the US
removed the DPRK from its SSTL, which the DPRK stated was a
prerequisite for continued cooperation. As a result, the DPRK resumed
work on dismantling its nuclear related facilities at Yongbyon.

But in what is surely to be the next hurdle to overcome in the 6PT, the
DPRK announced it will not allow any samples to be taken from its
nuclear facilities for the purpose of verifying its nuclear declaration. The
DPRK insists it never agreed to the removal of samples of atomic
material. It says outside verification of its nuclear inventory will involve
only field visits, confirmation of documents, and interviews with Kim Kye Kwan
technicians. DPRK Negotiator

In regards to accepting energy from outside parties, DPRK officials

stated they are willing to accept energy resources from anywhere, as
long as it receives the amount of resources agreed to by the other
members of the 6PT.
The DPRK has called for Japan to be excluded from the 6PT since, in
their view; Japan has reneged on their promise to provide energy
resources.

ROK: The ROK continues to participate in the 6PT in accordance with

President Lee’s “Policy of Mutual Benefits and Common Prosperity” of
pragmatic and result-oriented approaches. It continues to encourage
Kim Sook
North Korea to give up its nuclear programs through the 6PT in return ROK negotiator
for economic assistance from SK.

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The ROK foreign Minister stated “We're not just in a wait-and-see position but making active
efforts to have the second-phase process be completed by the end of the year, so that the 6PT
framework will be able to maintain momentum under the new U.S. government, which will
inevitably review the DPRK nuclear issue.''

PRC: PRC President Hu Jin Tao met with US President George W

Bush at the APEC meeting in Peru. They discussed the 6PT and
agreed to try to convene a 6PT meeting on 08 Dec in Beijing.

PRC Foreign Ministry Spokesman Qin Gang stated on 25 Nov that

China had proposed to hold the next six-party delegation heads
meeting on the DPRK nuclear issue on 08 Dec in Beijing.

Citing a diplomatic source, the ROK’s Yonhap reported, “the PRC has
not made a formal announcement of a schedule for the new talks
because it is probably waiting for North Korea's final answer after the Wu Dawei
Singapore talks.” The report adds “The six parties would not return to PRC Negotiator
the table without the prospects for
a deal on the verification issue.”

Japan: Foreign Minister Hirofumi Nakasone welcomed plans to hold

the next round of 6PT on 08 Dec and reiterated Japan's hopes to put in
writing a verbal agreement on verification methods, including the
collection of samples.

Japan has continued its policy of not providing energy resources to the
DPRK until progress is made on the abductees issue. Japan wants
Pyongyang to account fully for Japanese nationals kidnapped by the
North in the 1970s and 1980s to train its spies.

Members of the main opposition party, the Democratic Party of Japan Akitaka Saiki
Japan Negotiator
(DPJ), have drafted a proposal that would impose more sanctions and
ban all travel to the DPRK if the abductees issue is not resolved or significant progress is not
made. A person concerned with the DPJ pointed out: "The Aso cabinet should impose additional
sanctions. Our proposal can be utilized in a DPJ administration, which may appear in a next
Lower House election.”

Japan reacted negatively to the US decision to remove the DPRK from

its SSTL. Japanese officials expressed dissatisfaction with the US for
not informing and/or discussing the decision with Japan beforehand
and voiced doubts on the US’s commitment to address Japan’s
concerns on the abductees issue.

Russia: Russian deputy foreign minister Alexei Borodavkin stated that

Russia wants to keep the current format of the 6PT and to change it
would be unreasonable. This was in response to reports that North
Korea demanded Japan be excluded from the six-party talks for Alexei Borodavki
Russian negotiator
refusing to meet its obligations to supply fuel oil to Pyongyang.

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US: The US officially removed the DPRK from its SSTL on 11 Oct in
response to the DPRK’s agreement to a disablement verification
protocol.

US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said on 26 Nov the U.S. has

initialed an agreement with the DPRK on the verification of their
nuclear program, which will have to be signed by all members of the
6PT. Getting the approval and signatures of the members of the
multilateral dialogue will be a key focus in next month's negotiations
Christopher Hill
The US, trying to keep the nuclear disarmament process on track, has US Negotiator
asked countries outside of the 6PT to contribute energy resources to the DPRK in place of
Japan. While the European Union, Australia, and New Zealand have indicated they are willing,
implementation will not take place until the issue is discussed at the next 6PT meeting and a
formal request is made to the parties concerned.

Chief US negotiator for the 6PT, Christopher Hill, and DPRK chief negotiator Kim Kye Kwan met
in Singapore on 04 Dec for a preliminary meeting. This comes a month after Hill met DPRK
Foreign Ministry director general for North American affairs Ambassador Ri Gun at a conference
in New York on 06 Nov.

6PT Participants’ Reactions to Obama Election on the 6PT Future

DPRK: The DPRK has not released an official announcement on how it views the Obama
election in regards to the 6PT, but the Chosun Sinbo newspaper published by pro-Pyongyang
residents of Japan, which is thought to represent Pyongyang's position on sensitive political
issues, said the ROK will become less of a diplomatic priority for the DPRK if the new US
administration aggressively pursues dialogue with the DPRK.

Ri Gun, director general of the American affairs bureau of North Korea's Foreign Ministry,
remarked that the DPRK is ready to deal with any US administration, regardless of whether it
takes a hard-line approach or seeks engagement.

Many experts and political pundits speculate that the DPRK will make the most of direct talks
with the US and request the establishment of diplomatic missions in both countries ahead of the
completion of the nuclear verification process with the ultimate goal of normalizing relations with
the US.

ROK: Media in the ROK have speculated President-elect Obama will maintain the 6PT
framework but will put more emphasis on "US-DPRK bilateral talks." Reports indicate there are
concerns the new U.S. government could make too many concessions if dialogue with the
DPRK goes well, while others say dialogue could encourage the DPRK to communicate solely
with the US and freeze out the South.
Lee Young-hwa, an expert on Korea and an economics professor at Kansai University in Osaka,
told Asia Times Online that to engage in direct diplomacy with North Korea would make the 6PT
exist only in name. "The six-party talks will become a mere facade, but the US alone cannot
share the burden of economic incentives, standing up to North Korea. It still needs to pursue
multinationalism by consulting and working with other nations such as Australia. It does not

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have to [only] be the members of the six-party talks."

To counter these concerns, ROK President Lee Myong Bak stated he is in favor of direct DPRK-
US discussions and that it is a misconception to think this will freeze out the ROK. He added
that US negotiations with the DPRK will be coordinated with the ROK.

Citing reports that the conservative ROK government may have difficulty coordinating a policy
on the DPRK with the incoming liberal U.S. administration, the ROK Foreign Minister noted that
many key foreign policy advisers to US President-elect Barack Obama served under the Clinton
administration and "We have experience in close policy cooperation with the Clinton
administration and share a common goal of denuclearizing North Korea."

Japan: Media in Japan have speculated that more emphasis on "US-DPRK bilateral talks" will
lead to a marginalization of Japan in the 6PT framework. Many are worried this will in turn lead
to less attention being paid to Japan’s request for the DPRK to take action on the abductees
issue.

The Asahi Shimbum reported on 25 Nov, Japanese officials are keeping a close eye on U.S.
President-elect Barack Obama's position on key issues related to the 6PT. At a meeting with
Prime Minister Taro Aso on 22 Nov, President Bush was quoted as saying that he understood
the importance of the abduction issue to Japan, and that he would urge his successor to work
toward a resolution. However, it remains to be seen just how much consideration the incoming
Obama administration will give to the thorny question of the North's abduction of Japanese
nationals, officials said.

A top Foreign Ministry official also expressed concern that a change of government
in the US could lead to a change of negotiators, which could leave verbal promises made by the
North to the US in doubt.

US: Chief US 6PT negotiator Christopher Hill indicated on 03 Dec that he does not foresee ''big
changes'' in the 6PT after U.S. President-elect Barack Obama takes office in Jan.

Conclusion

Securing a verification regime with the DPRK would represent a huge diplomatic success in the
waning months of the Bush administration and many expect that the Bush administration may
reluctantly make concessions. Analysts say North Korea, sensing the US team is looking for a
diplomatic success before leaving office in Jan, may try to squeeze last-minute concessions at
this round of 6PT.

Despite government officials from the US, ROK, Japan, and Russia claiming the 6PT should
continue and increased US-DPRK bilateral discussions shouldn’t affect the 6PT process, there
is ample evidence in the media to indicate that there is considerable angst in the ROK and
Japan on their role and the future of the talks.

There is also concern the new US administration may replace the existing 6PT negotiators with
new ones, thus disrupting the continuity and familiarity established between the US and DPRK
representatives.

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In the end, it appears the 6PT will continue in their present form for at least this meeting. If the
DPRK does not obtain the concessions it seeks in this round of talks, it will most likely wait until
the new US administration comes into power and then seek more direct talks with the US. It
remains to be seen whether US-DPRK bilateral discussions will actually take place and if they
do, whether it will have the feared effect of reducing the influence of other 6PT members and
endangering the overall future of the process.

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USFK J2 Korea Open Source Report

References:

1. N. Korean nuclear envoy heads to Singapore: source

Yonhap
12/02/2008
2. N. Korea, U.S. likely to meet next week on nuke
Yonhap
11/27/2008
3. Sampling core part of verification deal with N. Korea: U.S. official
Yonhap
11/26/2008
4. U.S. envoy denies rift with N. Korea on nuclear verification
Yonhap
11/24/2008
5. Six-way nuclear talks look set to resume
Yonhap
11/23/2008
6. S. Korean, U.S. nuke envoys to attend U.N. disarmament forum
Yonhap
11/20/2008
7. N. Korea nixes nuclear sampling
Yonhap
11/12/2008
8. N. Korea, U.S. set for make-or-break talks in Singapore
Yonhap
12/03/2008
9. North nuke verification must be in writing: Saiki
Japan Times
12/04/2008
10. Hill foresees no big changes in 6-way denuke process under Obama
Kyodo
12/03/2008
11. Powers to press North Korea at swan-song talks
Rueters
12/03/2008
12. N.Korea Seeks to Sideline Japan in 6-Way Talks
Chosun Ilbo
10/22/2008
13. Obama, Seoul 'See Eye to Eye on N. Korea'
Chosun Ilbo
11/11/2008
14. Six-Party Talks 'to Resume in Early December'
Chosun Ilbo
11/24/2008
15. Six-Party Talks Must Produce Visible Results
Chosun Ilbo
11/25/2008
16. The Six-Party Talks on North Korea’s Nuclear Program
Council on Foreign Relations

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USFK J2 Korea Open Source Report

10/14/2008
17. North Korea Nuclear Verification: Has the U.S. Blinked?
Heritage Foundation
10/31/2008
18. On the Record Briefing
US Department of State
10/11/2008
19. OBAMA AND JAPAN / Concern rising over abduction issue
Yomiuri
11/20/2008
20. Six-Party Talks Due in China Dec. 8
Korea Times
11/24/2008
21. North Korea 'Ready to Deal' With Obama Administration
Fox News
11/07/2008
22. Nuclear officials see no U.S. shift in North policies
Joong Ang Daily
11/11/2008
23. INSIGHTS INTO THE WORLD / 'Perfidious Columbia'
Yomiuri
11/03/2008
24. All eyes on Obama in dealing with North
Asahi
11/25/2008
25. Predictions: Obama Administration Policy on North Korea
Daily NK
11/05/2008
26. 'Six-Party Talks Should Be Made Permanent'
Korea Times
11/27
27. Will Lee Get Along With Obama?
Korea Times
11/26/2008
28. Obama Seeks Verifiable Ban on Nukes
Korea Times
11/19/2008
29. Advent of Obama Doctrine
Korea Times
11/12/2008
30. Obama-Kim Summit
Korea Times
11/11/2008

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USFK J2 Korea Open Source Report

31. Lee Says He Won’t Oppose Obama-Kim Jong-il Talks

Korea Times
11/11/2008
32. Liberal America vs. Conservative S. Korea
Korea Times
11/10/2008
33. S. Korean Official Meets Key Obama Aide on NK Nukes
Korea Times
11/10/2008
34. Obama’s Direct Dialogue With N. Korea Won’t Hurt S. Korea
Korea Times
11/06/2008
35. Japan as Spoiler in the Six-Party Talks: Single-Issue Politics and Economic
Diplomacy Towards North Korea
Asia-Pacific Journal: Japan Focus
10/21/2008
36. OBAMA AND JAPAN / Concern rising over abduction issue
Yomiuri
11/20/2008
37. Bush assures Aso he'll urge Obama to work on abduction issue
Japan Today
11/23/2008
38. Clock ticking, Bush says to ask Obama on NKorea: Japan
Haveeru
11/23/2008
39. Kim could make Obama Flinch
Asia Times
11/06/2008
40. Japan insists North Korea clear up mystery around abductees
International Herald Tribune
10/14/2008
41. North Korea Will Reset the Nuclear Negotiations with Obama
Daily NK
11/17/2008
42. North Korean Foreign Minster: We Welcome the U.S. Measure
Daily NK
10/14/2008
43. Australia, NZ, EU Invited to Aid N. Korea
Korea Times
10/31/2008

44. Six-party talks countries, IAEA to check N.Korea nuclear data

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USFK J2 Korea Open Source Report

http://en.rian.ru/world/20081023/117920510.html
10/23/2008
45. U.S. asks Australia, NZ, EU for N.Korea aid
China Post
11/02/2008
46. Six-nation nuclear talks doubtful
UPI Asia
12/04/2008
47. N. Korea envoy says talks with U.S. aimed at laying groundwork
Breitbart
12/02/2008
48. Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Qin Gang's Regular Press Conference
Chinese Embassy in US
11/25/2008
49. N.Korea Will Need the South Soon Enough
Chosun Ilbo
11/11/2008
50. Chinese and DPRK diplomats meet over six-party talks
China Daily
11/13/2008
51. China, DPRK meet over six-party nuclear talks
China.org
11/14/2008
52. Japan hopes to resume six-party talks at an early date
Xinhua.net
11/23/2008
53. Six-Party Talks to Resume in Beijing on Dec. 8
Chosun Ilbo
11/25/2008

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