SWI Security Report Vol 3 Issue 11

FEBRUARY 18, 2013
SWI Security Report Vol 3 Issue-11
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SWI Security Repo rt Vol 3 Issue-4
AR Y1 the Indian 7, 20 13 Homeland Security and Defence Markets
JAN
NORTHEAST INDIA
The Untapped Potential and the Perennial Paranoia
November 3, 201
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CONTENTS
LEAD ANALYSIS:
Is India Ready For 2014? Is India Ready to Defend Its National Assets? The Possibility of Defence Spending Cut and Its Impact India Security Review: Understanding Terror Threats to Megacities pg 2 pg 9 pg 11 pg 13
SPECIAL FEATURE
Incident in Haldia is a lesson for indian Industry Insights into Indian Terrorism pg 16 pg 18
BUSINESS OPPORTUNITIES
TheIndianHomeland Security and Defence Market- heading For convergence. pg 19
Contributors: Sandeep Bhardwaj, David LR Ralte, Pathikrit Payne Copyright Security Watch India 2012 Security Watch India (SWI) is a non-partisan, not-for-profit organization that addresses issues in the space of the relatively new homeland security sector. SWI works towards a secure tomorrow by enhancing security awareness and consciousness in Indian industry and civil society. SWI also guides and facilitates potential investors interested in the Indian homeland security business. Security Watch India is not responsible for the facts, views or opinion expressed by the author(s) in this report. Republication or re-dissemination of the contents of this document are expressly prohibited without the written consent of Security Watch India. You can avail these reports for a year by joining Security Watch Indian Membership program or independent annual subscription for just Rs. 5000 (100USD). The subscription will afford you latest and most relevant information on Indian Homeland Security situation that will help you make right decisions for your business. For more information please contact: info@securitywatchindia.org.in www.securitywatchindia.org.in
FEBRUARY 18, 2013
LEAD ANALYSIS
Is India ready for 2014?
Are we staring at a two-frontal war with Pakistan & China and decisive battle against Maoist coinciding at the same time? Or is it that 2014 would usher in a new era of economic prosperity and tranquility for South Asia and China? Pathikrit Payne
The recent spate of discussions in the Indian parliament regarding the security preparedness of India primarily in the context of Indian Armed Forces equipment obsolescence issues vis--vis the growing nexus between Pakistan and China brings to the fore the need to discuss the impending crisis around 2014. So why is 2014 important for India? Well, if one connects the dots, an interesting picture of the emerging scenario comes up and needless to say that the picture is not essentially a rosy one. It can be now said with surety that by 2014 ISAF or International Security Assistance Force, the international coalition led by US Armed Forces would completely quit Afghanistan leaving behind a bloody trail and vindicating once more why Afghanistan has always been the quintessential graveyard for marching armies. To understand what might emerge out of the exit of US led forces in 2014, one should look at what emerged out of the disintegration of Soviet Union and end of Cold War in late eighties of the last century. That disintegration not only ended the Cold War but also as a consequence of that, brought an abrupt end to the Afghan war. With the end of Cold War, the Western World lost interest in the Mujahids who were nourished and groomed to take on the Soviets in Afghanistan, and exited the region. They left behind an unruly militia numbering in hundreds of thousands, many of whom were volunteers from other Islamic states who had come to fight a holy war for Islam against the communist invasion. Needless to say the Mujahids credited themselves for the collapse of Soviet Union and their defeat in Afghanistan, even though nothing can be far from the truth. Yet ironically that victory essentially left hundreds of thousands of Mujahids without a job in hand. And there is nothing more dangerous than an unemployed mercenary. For Pakistan, the real problem was to manage and contain this huge army of mercenaries many of whom had married local women in the Af-Pak region and have settled down in its own restive NWFP and FATA region. But amidst this problem was also an opportunity for it to give shape to its low intensity conflict game plan it had prepared for Kashmir to settle score for the 1971 debacle and loss of Siachen. And thus the trained, battle hardened Mujahids were the best lot to give shape to it. One can look back and see that there was an amazing coinciding of the end of the Afghan War and the beginning of terrorism in Kashmir. Those Mujahids who had gone back to their home states after the end of the war started similar campaigns over there too against the incumbent regimes. But the bloodiest of spates of terrorism was witnessed in Kashmir where the foreign mercenaries eventually hijacked the Kashmir agenda and started the waging of a new wave of bloody terrorism on the Indian state. The false indoctrination was that after Afghanistan it was turn of Kashmir to get liberated.
The Repeat of History- Would South Asia become a Future Economic Paradise or a Perpetual Place of Anarchy?
More than two decades down the line, this year seems to be a harbinger of the repeat of history about to happen, even though things have changed much in both Kashmir and Pakistan. It can now be stated with impunity that the exit of US and its allied forces from Afghanistan would be similarly portrayed by Taliban as its victory against the West, the way they had portrayed the withdrawal of the Soviets as their victory. While US might have to a great extent succeeded in neutralizing the ability of Al Qaeda to plot another 9/11 from their bases in Afghanistan, Taliban continues to remain a potent force and perhaps a much stronger one than what it was a few years back. It now has an equally strong offshoot in Pakistan known as TTP or Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan with support base and solidarity from a wide section of Pakistanis who have been distraught with relentless drone strikes. Today the Pakistani establishment faces severe threat from not just the TTP but also from several other radical groups who are slowly galvanizing against the government, which they consider nothing more than a pawn in the hands of the West. The exit of US and allied forces would invariably embolden the Talibans counterpart in Pakistan to increase their war against the government and dislodge it in the same manner. For the Taliban in Afghanistan, the Pakistani regime would be perhaps their next target and would throw
FEBRUARY 18, 2013
LEAD ANALYSIS
all its might behind their counterpart in Pakistan for fulfilling the objective. Thus for a hapless Pakistani Government the only way to salvage itself from the predicament would either be to create massive employment opportunities for the radicalized lot through substantial reforms in their economy and education sector, or take a shorter path by channelizing this huge disgruntlement, rage and negative force towards an external common adversary. Needless to say, that common adversary for the Pakistani Army, ISI and the radical Islamists groups would be India and the Kashmir agenda, an emotive issue for them on which all of them converge. One can also state that the radicals might get so much emboldened in Pakistan after the exit of US from Af-Pak region that even if the Pakistani Government is reluctant to take the path of proxy war all over again, the radicalized lot might just do it anyway even if it means going against the wish of the state. Thus for the Pakistani establishment, the twin challenges would invariably be to prevent the radicals from overwhelming their own state and also perhaps make sure that they dont make a repeat of 26/11 a norm, which would only plunge the whole of South Asia into a massive crisis in case India is forced by its public opinion to retaliate. Therefore the near failure of cross-border terrorism in J&K and the disillusionment of the populace over there notwithstanding, there is a very high chance of the resurgence of cross-border terrorism in J&K. The profundity and the probability of the same can be gauged from the fact that Indias active participation in the modernization of the Afghan economy as well as its infrastructure and military is not something to the liking of the Taliban. And therefore their antagonism for India is compounded by these factors in addition to the fact that for the radical Islamist groups, India is a key part of the axis, which consists of Israel and US among others. Thus, for Taliban, the Pakistan based terror groups like LeT and JeM, and the remaining fringe elements of Al Qaeda, US and Israel might be distant targets difficult to hit but India in the immediate neighborhood remains very much a possible and viable ground for continuing the mayhem. This resurgence of terrorism might become even bloodier for the fact that this time it might not at all get any support from the Kashmir populace, and from a large section Pakistani moderates fed up with radicalism, which would antagonize the radicals even more leading more internal turmoil in Pakistan.
A Well Governed and Prosperous Pakistan is in Indias Interest

While defense preparedness against any kind of external misadventure is essentially the need of the day, it is also in Indias interest to make sure that Pakistan is not overwhelmed by radicals and devastated as a society. India can never be an oasis of development surrounded by failed states. It is thus imperative for India to create opportunities and make them a part of the growth story. Easier said than done perhaps, but perhaps it is through increased economic integration and by making Pakistan have stake in South Asias growth story that one can eventually defeat radicals and help the moderates in Pakistan have a greater say. In the recent past World Banks Vice President for South Asia Region Isabel Guerrero stated, If Pakistan can have more trade with India, it would have a huge impact first of all in the bilateral relations, but also for Pakistans growth. That is the answer to get out of the low equilibrium through high growth.
Commission, in an article in Newsweek namely, The Real War with India published in July 2011 wrote :
Sixty-four years ago, Pakistan and India started out evenly enough in terms of education and skilledworkforce levels. India has overshot us and is now competing with the big boys, swiftly and dedicatedly catching up with the developed world in higher education, science, technology, innovation, and research. Pakistan cannot afford to be left behind. We cannot allow security threats, the financial and ideological allure of Islamist radicalism, and bad governance to defeat us
Javed R Laghari , Chairman of Pakistans Higher Education
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LEAD ANALYSIS
In the same article he had further stated that Pakistan needs to take a leaf out of Indias book to realize the possible. But nevertheless the fear of a resurgence of terrorism and radicalism does remain which has the potential to wreak havoc in the whole of South Asia. And Pakistans moderates would invariably need a helping hand from India to defeat this menace.
Is Chinas military build-up mere posturing or is it a harbinger of something worse?

A couple of more dangerous factors would thus perhaps compound the possible resurgence of terrorism around the 2014 period. For quite some time now it has become evident that China has been spending massively to shore up its military preparedness not just in South China Sea region but also in the Tibetan plateau right across the Indian border. It now has almost 22 army divisions or around 330000 personnel in addition to a wide array of Dong- Feng series of MRBM and ICBM, S-300 Surface to Air Missiles and several squadrons of frontline Su-27 and Su-30 deployed there. The Qinghai-Lhasa train network can rapidly deploy several brigades of personnel in no time from the hinterland to the borders. Likewise, there have been substantial infrastructure upgradations with construction of motorized roads right up to the border. Similar infrastructure development and deployment by China can be witnessed in Aksai Chin along the LAC as well as in Pakistan Occupied Kashmir. The issue therefore that needs deliberation is whether all these are mere casual indulgence on the part of the Chinese establishment or is it that there are some sinister game plan gradually taking shape behind the faade of unassuming infrastructure development? Chinas creeping acquisition of territory along the LAC, by taking advantage of the undefined border, has been going on for long. Add to this its complete intransigence with respect to settling border issues through talks and an uncanny similarity to the way things had build up before the 1962 Indo-China war. The same smiling faces and lectures on peaceful rise of China continue even while military build-up and occasional loose talks by Chinese diplomats reveal something else. While India might no longer be the passive dove it was in 1962, the presumption and the
The China Factor- Would Globalization thwart a face-off or would economic rivalry instigate one?
While the fact remains that the tentacles of globalization have invariably made full scale war between any two developing and globally integrated nations extremely difficult, on the flip side, it is this quest for higher economic growth, the quest to defeat rival nations in the economic war, and the insatiable thirst for hitherto unexplored sources of energy to fuel this economic growth, that has the potential to bring competing nations to confrontation. One has to keep in mind that Japans preemptive attack on Pearl Harbor that pulled in US into the Second World War was essentially because of USAs oil embargo on Japan which was about to put severe strain on oil-starved Japans imperial agenda. One also has to keep in mind that Germanys invasion of Soviet Union and its determination to keep Romania under its fold had more to do with the reserves of fossil fuel in those places than issues of Aryan superiority.
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general perception in China still remains that it can any day browbeat India to subservience. If the massive military buildup in Tibet is only for military posturing, and to have a better control over the restive province of Tibet, then probably it would not be that big a cause of worry. But if it is for a repeat of 1962 then it is surely a cause of a major anxiety. warships, frictions with China or Pakistan would essentially be land based with air force and army playing bigger roles that navy. Unfortunately Indian Air Force would continue to be lacking far behind China with the first combat plane from the MMRCA deal not reaching the IAF kitty before 2016 and that too only if the deal with Dassault for Rafale is signed by this year. By the admission of the Indian Defense Minister in the parliament, the first of the Fifth Generation Fighter Aircraft namely Su-50 that India is jointly developing with Russia would not be forthcoming before 2019. Moreover it would perhaps not be before 2014 that Agni V would be made operational. The Mountain offensive Corps that India is planning to raise would perhaps take a minimum five years to be operational. And even though India has considerable missile deterrent in terms of its vast array of Agni series of missile in addition to Brahmos and a newly developed ballistic missile shield, the army is plagued by the lack of modern artillery whose procurement has started only now and would take time to replenish the depleted arsenal. Therefore if some hawkish elements in Chinese Establishment indeed have some sinister design in mind then perhaps it would try to execute it around 2014 because in another few years from that time the Indian Armed Forces would be completely modernized. However, certain alacrity that has been shown by the Indian Government for the past few years, in terms raising two mountain divisions, sanctioning construction of several hundred kilometers of roads in Indo-China border, deployment of squadrons of Sukhois, Brahmos and Agni missiles in Northeast in addition to recent clearance of purchase of M777 ultra light howitzers that are specifically meant to be airlifted at short notice for mountain warfare, all point towards urgency in preparing for any eventuality. Lately though, Indian state is waking up to the threats.
The Energy-Water Conundrum.

Indo-Chinese rivalry in energy is well known. It is also a known fact that China has been considerably successful in wresting the initiative to have a strong energy footprint in Central Asia and Africa with India not lagging far behind. But as if the energy rivalry between energy starved India and China was not enough, the emerging water rivalry certainly adds more to the growing list of geopolitical stress in South Asia. Chinas alleged construction of dams and its endeavor to divert the path of the Brahmaputra (known as Tsangpo in Tibet) would have cataclysmic effects on both the ecology and economy of Northeast India. So if it eventually happens that way, what are the options left for India? Therefore, even though war is in nobodys interest, face-offs cannot be ruled out, and thus, spending on defense has to be shored up keeping the geopolitical fluidity of the region in mind.
The Maoist Factor- Indias Biggest Threat

Yet the story does not end here only. The period of
Modernization of Indias Armed ForceSteady But Too Slow.

With respect to Indias military modernization, even though by early next year India would have two nuclear submarines in its arsenal (indigenously built Arihant and INS Chakra taken on lease from Russia) and an additional aircraft carrier in its kitty in addition to several newly commissioned
2014 would also be the time when the war against Maoists in India reach a decisive phase. The Government of Indias official figures now put the armed Maoist cadres somewhere close to 46000, which is perhaps more than the strength of armed forces of several smaller European nations. Out of this, an estimated 8000 Maoist cadres are heavily armed with sophisticated weapon systems. Recent arrest of some
FEBRUARY 18, 2013
LEAD ANALYSIS
Concluding Remark- Prepare for the worst but hope for a Serene South Asia
The moot question therefore that needs deliberation is whether India is prepared to face external and internal aggressions at the same time from 2014 onwards in case such a scenario arises.. A full-blown war like scenario at a time when India is besieged with internal security issues is what Indias adversaries would consider an ideal situation for them. The issue therefore for us to deliberate is whether India as a nation is prepared for that or not. Fact remains that Indias armed forces have gone through considerable transformation in the last one decade time since Kargil happened in the summer of 1999. Since then, according to SIPRI, India imported arms worth $50 billion while it is on the verge of acquiring arms worth $100 billion in the next one decade. The last decade saw several major deals getting cleared including the deals for 123 AJT Hawks for Indian Air Force, 230 Su-30MKI, eight P-8I Posiedons, six C-130j tactical transport aircrafts(order for another six being negotiated), 10 C-17 strategic air lifters, 80 Mi-17V helicopters for Air Force ( order for another 59 is being negotiated), Smerch Rocket launchers, induction of Pinaka MBRL,, Akash and Brahmos missiles, acquisition of T-90s and Arjun Main Battle Tank , while two aircraft carriers and three nuclear are being constructed in addition to Scorpene Submarines being build. While Indian Navy would be acquiring 90 new ships in the next one decade, Indian Coast Guard which has been undergoing substantial revamp since the happening of the 26/11 seaborne terror attack in Mumbai, is expected to induct 250 ships and 100 aircrafts in the next five years. Yet there is much more that is needed to be done at the grassroots level and especially in modernizing the foot soldier. It is not just the modernization but the pace at which it is happening is important especially when armies in the neighborhood are doing it at a breakneck speed. Likewise a considerable amount of revamp in undergoing in the internal security arena also. In the last three years alone, as per data released by Union Home ministry, India purchased the following for its Central Armed Police Forces primarily for counterinsurgency operations. 89,641 light weight BP jackets, 67,965 AK-47 rifles;
of the top Maoist leaders have also revealed the extent of expertise they have developed in terms of producing weapons systems on their own and the extensive supply chain they have in place. Yet somewhere down the line governments own confusion with respect to how it should deal with the menace is making the situation more complex. It still continues to think it is a law & order issue to be dealt by individual state governments. Lack of decisive action and continuing with the belief that it is more of a socioeconomic problem in spite of the evidences suggesting otherwise is only creating the stage for eventually bringing the army into it for a full-scale military offensive. The Maoist agenda is pretty clear with respect to toppling the Indian political economic system someday and they are gradually penetrating into newer regions as well as creating an environment of terror through targeted killings and kidnappings. By 2014 Indias economy would be a near $2.5 trillion and as per reports of Indias Intelligence Bureau, Maoists have it in their game plan to hit India hard by targeting its economic infrastructure, something that India can ill afford. Such economic casualties would hit India perhaps more than anything else .Needless to say, a full-scale conflict scenario would invariably be a bloodied one. One also has to take into account the consolidation of all the northeastern insurgent groups that is taking place in Myanmar with Paresh Baruah group of ULFA, PREPAK, NDFB, KYKL and NSCN(K) all coming together under a new umbrella to wage a renewed war against the Indian state. Add to this fact that there are clear evidence of growing nexus between the northeast based insurgent groups and Maoists.
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LEAD ANALYSIS
Yet in spite all this, much more is needed to be done to tackle the menace of left wing and Islamist terrorism. India is far from being completely secure from all kinds of internal and external aggression and the government needs to realize that spending on internal and external security is not wastage but a key investment in securing the economy. There is also a need for cohesive action and Indian states should realize that they are part of one republic and not individual states of a confederation. Therefore till the time centre-state relations are given a new meaning, India security would suffer. Preventing the Central Government from having greater say in internal security matters in the name of federalism is essentially harming India.
The Worst Case Scenario

In the worst case scenario, a two-frontal war would completely tie up the army and spurt in terrorism in Kashmir would stretch the army manned Rashtriya Rifles to the limit, giving it very limited leeway to release men and material for the anti-Maoist operations. The CRPF too would be stretched to the hilt while taking on both the terrorism in J&K and Maoists. Therefore keeping all this in mind, it is time for Indian Government to realize that military preparedness cannot be done at snails pace without taking into account the worsening situations both internally and externally. It is therefore also time to make security a shared responsibility and allow the private sector have at least the wherewithal to guards its own assets through armed private security contractors. It is also time to shed the inhibitions with respect to defense spending and realize that economic well-being and a vibrant society is good only till the time the nation is able to protect it. Or else, self created impediments through ignoring the plight of the armed forces and their concerns, being miserly in security spending to appease the self-proclaimed peaceniks, not trusting and taking India Inc into confidence, not giving the foot soldier his due respect and amenities would only be a perfect prelude to a spectacular disaster.
16,430 Assault rifles; 2537 X-95 assault rifles for CRPF 34377 Carbine Machine For BSF 1,805 Automatic Grenade Launchers; 2,608GlockPistols; 1,164 hand-held Thermal Imagers; 1,576 MP-5s; 8,109 PNS Weaponssights; 105 Mine protected vehicles; 8 ALH Helicopters; 118 Light ArmouredTroop Carriers; 3,174 Deep Search Metal Detectors; 9,792 Passive Night Vision Binoculars etc 25 Remote Controlled Improvised Explosive Devices, RCIED Jammers for CRPF Road Opening parties. 16,791 Digital VHF/UHF hand held radio sets for BSF has been sanctioned. Under the Modernisation of Police Force scheme, the state level police forces have been provided with 26465 bullet proof jackets, 1077786 assualt rifles and 17824 vehicles.
Time to redefine South Asia- Name it Greater South Asia by Including China in it
While preparation for war is one way of avoiding a real war, the other important way is essentially to make every stakeholder in South Asia, including China
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LEAD ANALYSIS
discord, coupled with desperations of government to keep the unemployed, disgruntled flock intoxicated with passion that drives nations to war. Integrated economic progress is thus perhaps the best bet against it.
have a sense of shared responsibility in the future of the region. Today more than two-fifth of humanity exist in South Asia and China. In the next few decades two of the three largest economies of the world would be India and China and as the theatre of global economy shifts to Asia, the prominence of South Asia and China can only go northwards. As per the estimates of Standard Chartered Bank, Indias GDP would be $30 trillion by 2030 compared to Chinas $73 Trillion and USAs $38 trillion. The World economy that time would be $308 trillion meaning that nearly one-third of the global GDP by 2030 would be in Greater South Asia by 2030. Therefore in spite of the looming shadows of face-offs, rivalries and haunting past when nations in South Asia fought with each other, the future of this place hold magnetic possibilities given the enormous potential of its human resource and increasing technological prowess. No doubt the world would benefit immensely from it. But it is also important for India and China to make people in the neighborhood benefit from it. For, it is only through more economic progress that the quality of life of so many people living in Greater South Asia can be improved. In spite of considerable geopolitical tensions between US and China, they never think about a war for the simple reason of strong economic stakes they have in each other. While Chinese economy depends much on US markets, the Chinese SEZs are imbued with American investments be it from GE, Microsoft or Intel and many others. It is time for India and China to develop such shared stakes in Greater South Asia. It is only then that none would think the destruction of other as beneficial and none would presume development as mutually exclusive. It is perhaps only then that true peace and progress would usher in extended South Asia without lowering guard. And it Is only then that radicalism can be truly defeated in the real sense, for, it is lack of economic opportunity and social
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LEAD ANALYSIS
Threat to Critical Infrastructure- Is India Ready to

Defend its National Assets?
Pathikrit Payne
planning to target Indias critical economic infrastructure and vital installations is not new as in the last couple of years, on several occasions; Intelligence Bureau did send terror alerts to several states regarding plans of cross border jihadi groups like LeT planning to strike dams and nuclear installations. Indias economic and industrial infrastructure today spans across the length and breadth of the country and is no longer restricted to a mere few corridors. Even some of relatively economically backward but resource rich states like Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh and Odisha have recorded massive investment commitments from Indian and global industrial houses. In 2011, the four of the worst Maoist affected states of India attracted combined investments worth Rs 26.19 lakh crore. While Odisha attracted investment proposals worth Rs 12.09 lakh crore, Jharkhand received proposals worth Rs 9.13 lakh crore followed by Chhattisgarh at Rs 4.56 lakh crore and Bihar with Rs 2.38 lakh crore.
On 28th August, 2012, as per Press Information Bureau, the Minister of State for Home, Jitendra Singh stated in the Parliament that since 2009, there have been 1183 incidents of Maoist attacks that targeted economic infrastructure. Such infrastructures that have been at the receiving end of Maoist mayhem included properties of Public Sector/Private Sector Units, Railways property, power infrastructure, telephone exchanges in addition to schools and panchayat buildings. The Minister had also stated that Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Bihar and Orissa are the worst affected states in terms of Maoist violence. Further, the MoS had informed in the Parliament that seven Delhi districts are now Maoist influence which vindicates the fact that the Maoists are gradually shifting their focus towards urban bases. Likewise, the massive terror crackdown in South India last week which resulted in the arrest of 17 suspects from Maharashtra, Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh exposed that the alleged conspirators had planned among others to target Indias prime nuclear installations like that of Kaiga Nuclear Power Plant along with several other defence establishment spread over South India. The common thread that runs between the threat from both the Maoist and the Islamic terror groups, as can be gauged from recent revelations, is that both are now seriously planning to target Indias critical economic infrastructure. The issue of radical Islamic terror groups
It is a foregone conclusion now that the Maoists are not fighting for development but for their own hegemonic power interests and therefore any kind of industrialisation which might bring jobs and development and wean away the erstwhile distraught populace of their bastions towards progress would be violently thwarted and disrupted by them. If that is one reason for their systematic targeting
FEBRUARY 18, 2013
LEAD ANALYSIS
of economic infrastructures, the other primary reason invariably is to hit India where it hurts the most, i.e. the economy. For the Islamic terror groups too, they know that hitting any major or critical economic infrastructure would not just give them instant mileage and global footage but would also wreak havoc for the economy in terms of the psychological impact it would have on the potential investors. The incident of 26/11 and the psychological impact it created was a testimony to that. Therefore the moot question that needs deliberation is whether India is prepared to deal with this kind of attempted physical onslaught on its infrastructure or not. While there has been a considerable augmentation in the numbers of central and state level police forces fighting Maoists as well as much money has been spent on the development of Quick Reaction Teams for cities to deal with 26/11 type incident, nevertheless it would be impossible for the state to provide blanket security to every critical infrastructure, most of which now are in the private sector domain, without making security a shared responsibility. Even though many state governments are gradually coming up with their own industrial security forces on the lines of CISF, still such forces can only come for restoration of order or for countering a terror attack. They cannot be permanently there for point defence or pre-empting a terror attack or thwarting a Maruti Suzuki type mayhem by an unruly mob of employees. For that, the private industrial houses would have to essentially depend on the private security companies. But the Maruti Suzuki incident in Manesar showed that mere presence of private security personnel would be of no help unless they are specially trained for riot control and counter terror operations and have a well laid Standard Operation Procedure (SOP) to follow in case of any eventuality. Therefore the need of the hour is essentially to train Indias huge but ill trained force of private security personnel most of whom know nothing better than merely saluting in attention. There are an estimated 5 million private security personnel and their training is of utmost critical importance if India has to protect its critical infrastructure. It is also very important on the part of the government to proceed on the issue of granting license for bulk procurement of arms by select private security companies for their personnel. Even though the government had issued advisories (as per media reports) to major companies possessing critical national assets to deploy trained manpower to counter possible acts of terror, security of any major private sector company requisitioning the service of a private security company can never be absolutely fool proof unless they have the permission to carry some or the other kind of sophisticated small arms to defend themselves.
Should India Inc invest money to its own security companies?

While this issue is still preposterous but nevertheless given the kind of unprecedented threat that Indian economy is facing from terror groups of all shades and colours, it would not be surprising if India Inc essentially starts thinking on that line. The issue at stake is not just to safeguard investments inside India but also abroad. Recently AFISCO, an Indian consortium of steel companies led by SAIL and which also includes NMDC, Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited, JSW Steel, Jindal Steel and Power, have been given mining rights in Hajigak for the purpose of setting up a 7 million tonne steel plant and an 800 MW power plant. The mine in Hajigak is estimated to have 1.8 billion tonne of high grade iron ore reserves. The entire estimated investment that India would make there would be to the tune of $11 billion. Invariably such a scheme of thing would be a sore in the eye of Indias bte noire Pakistan and Taliban and therefore in the aftermath of the American exit from Afghanistan in 2014, it would become imperative for India to develop the wherewithal to protect such vital overseas investments. Needless to say Indias private security agencies would have a key role to play to secure such investments but before that, they have to train their manpower to that level. Overall, as things stand today, the threat to Indias critical infrastructure would only keep increasing and in addition to the efforts of the Government of India, India Inc too would have to spend or say invest a part of its revenue in the development of a well equipped security manpower to safeguard Indias investments.
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LEAD ANALYSIS
The Possibility of Defence Spending Cut and its Impact on Indias Operational Preparedness.
It would not augur well for India if India reduces its much needed spending on defence and homeland security arena.
-Pathikrit Payne
It was earlier this year that the previous Chief of Staff of Indian Army, General (Retd) V K Singh had informed the Government about the depleting stock of critical ammunitions with Indian Army including the stock of Tank ammunitions wherein in a letter to the Defence Ministry he had stated that the stock of Indian artillery and air defence ammunitions might just not last for more than two days in the event of a possibility of a war. Against this background the Government of India in the recent past had to clear deals for the purchase of 25,000 Invar Missiles for T-90 tanks, 10,000 Konkur Missiles for mechanised infantry among several other deals. Reports also emerged recently that the incumbent Chief of Army Staff General V K Singh is slated to meet the Prime Minister and brief him about the critical shortages of key equipment and ammunitions that the Indian Army faces.
The possibility of India going in for a Rs 20,000 crore defence spending cut in the current fiscal might not be too good a news for either the defence establishments, internal security establishments or the defence equipment manufacturers who have been betting on the Indian market against the backdrop of major defence spending cuts across Europe and US markets. For the present fiscal, as per the reports that emerged in the media, the Government of India has asked the Ministry of Defence to prioritise the defence procurements and go in for only those equipments whose purchase is extremely critical under the present circumstances. Incidentally this itself comes against the backdrop of Defence Ministry talking about an additional Rs 45000 crore allocation for the current fiscal to continue with Indias defence modernisation which is already quite a few years behind schedule. The issue of the possible defence spending cut should be seen from three major perspectives. They are: 1. The geopolitical scenario across South Asia, including the deteriorating situation in Pakistan 2. The modernisation of Pakistan and Chinese Defence establishments and their increasing coordination. 3. The possible impact of such defence spending cut on the homeland security aspect of India.
The issue of defence modernisation, critics would claim, is a continuous process and that even if there is a temporary lull in it and the purchases are carried forward for the next year, would not have that much impact on the operational preparedness of the nations armed forces. However, anyone conversant with the way Indias acquisition process drags on for decades and often gets mired in red tape, bureaucratic juggernauts as also issues of impulsive and random blacklisting of defence product manufacturers, would appreciate the discomfort among the defence establishments regarding the ramification of such defence spending cuts. Take for example the cases of some critical deals which might get affected because of such expenditure cut. The near $20 billion deal for 126 MMRC Jets with Dassualt of France for their Rafale aircraft is still being negotiated after the concerned companys product was declared L1 in the recent past. For more than a decade now the Indian Air Force has been facing a critical shortage or a gap in its air superiority because of the near obsolescence of the MiG-21 jets, which were almost half the fleet of IAF for a long time. The other reason for the critical gap had been the relentless delay in the induction of the homegrown LCA Tejas which is yet to get the Final Operational
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LEAD ANALYSIS
Clearance. Thus, IAF had been pitching on the fleet of its Su-30MKI, ongoing modernisation of Mig-29s and Mirage2000s and the induction of the Dassault Rafale MRCA as quickly as possible. However, if the negotiations and the final signing of the contract are pushed to the next year, the delivery of the aircrafts would also be similarly delayed as the norm is that the delivery starts almost four years from the signing of the contract. The other critical deals that might also be affected would be that of the purchase of 22 Apache AH-64 LongBow helicopters and 15 Chinook Helicopters from Boeing, as also the deal for an additional six C-130 J aircrafts and M-777 ultra Light Howitzers. Each of these acquisition programmes is extremely critical from the Armed Forces point of view as these deals are key to fructifying its ability to implement the Cold Start Doctrine as also the ability to fight a two frontal war. There is also the deal for an additional six MRTT (Multi Role Tanker Transport) hanging in balance for which the two bidders were Airbus with its A-330 MRTT and IL-78 of Russian origin. This too is critical as mid air refuel tankers act as major force multipliers. It would not portend good for India if the signing of contracts for all these projects is postponed to the next year. against the Maoists reaching a decisive stage, Indian can hardly afford to cut on police modernisation and leave the forces in the lurch. It would also have to be kept in mind that whenever a nation has been invaded from outside, its internal radical and secessionist forces have always sided with the invaders against the state. Therefore weakening Indias war preparedness and the possibility of any flareup with Pakistan or China would only embolden Indias Maoists and other radical groups to increase their subversive activities and hit the state harder.
The other critical issue which needs equal deliberation is that of the impact of Governments austerity measure on the homeland security aspect of India. While nothing concrete has so far been stated, it would not be surprising if the spending cuts in the defence arena are followed by similar measures in internal security spending. India is going through a very critical stage so far as its internal security is concerned with major modernisation drive of the Central Police Forces as well as the State Police Forces going on in order to improve their firepower and operational preparedness. This has become critical because of the triangular threat that India is now facing in its internal security theatre from the Maoists, the home-grown radical elements like Indian Mujahideen, SIMI, insurgent groups of northeast India as well as secessionist radical elements like LeT which are backed by Pakistan. Therefore the operational preparedness of the Indian internal security forces would have to be up-graded to execute both urban counter-terror measures as well as jungle warfare capabilities. Such upgradation of capabilities of nearly 800,000 Central Police Personnel and near 2 million state police personnel needs major investments on communication systems, firepower, combat clothing, accommodation, vehicles, logistics as also surveillance and airlifting capabilities. With the battle
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Therefore, from the perspective of Indias risk environment with the possibility of a two frontal war with Pakistan and China no longer being a distant but a distinct possibility, with the deteriorating situation in Pakistan and the increasing possibility of a new wave of terrorism from that place being rammed into India and with the Maoists arming themselves with more lethal firepower, India can hardly afford to reduce its defence and internal security spending as most of these spending. The unfortunate saga is that the axe would invariably fall on capital expenditure as revenue expenditures or non-planned expenditures can hardly be curtailed. The Issue of containing the fiscal deficit is no doubt important from the economic point of view, but that can also be achieved through augmentation of revenue through disinvestments on a large scale as also cutting down on major wasteful expenditures in other areas instead of putting the axe on defence spending. In its quest to make Indian economy strong, any effort to reduce defence expenditure might make India vulnerable from external and internal aggressions which would have a far bigger cascading effect on investor sentiment and economic wellbeing of the nation. Remember 26/11?
FEBRUARY 18, 2013
LEAD ANALYSIS
India Security Review: Understanding Terror Threats to Megacities
This is the first article of a series titled India Security Review that will provide a comprehensive assessment of Indian Homeland Security over coming months. The next article on regional perspectives on Indian security will be published in the next issue of SWI Security Intelligence Report
o anticipate nature of future attacks, it is important to examine the terrorist and insurgent groups that have or may target megacities. By analyzing their attack strategies, tactics and capabilities, important insights can be collected. While there are many terrorist organizations actively targeting India, they have been categorised in five loose groupings based on their ideologies, capabilities and tactics. While from intelligence or law enforcement perspective, it is important to scrutinize each organization individually, for the purposes of this study, it would suffice to identify the general attack strategy. they have safe havens beyond Indian borders as well as in insurgency-affected areas within India. This means that they have better capability of recruiting and training their cadres and more time to plan an attack undisturbed by security forces crackdown. This allows them to be more efficient in their attacks. The time gained by not being under constant pressure of evading arrest, allows these groups to time their attacks to more symbolic date and time. This is an important inference. For example, the widely-accepted explanation for why there was no attack after the killing of Osama bin Laden was that Al Qaeda did not have a spectacular attack planned waiting to be launched on a special date. They were under constant pressure to execute each attack as soon as it was planned, lest its secrecy was compromised under pressure from security forces. However, for terror groups capable of waiting in safety of their havens, free from such pressure, an attack can easily be time to coincide a specific date that may carry meaning. It should be also noted that many of these groups, especially LeT and JeM receive sponsorship from a large group of foreign donors including government institutions, which allows them greater resources and technical know-how. Most vehement example of such resources is David Headley, an American citizen who reconnoitred possible targets for LeT before the Mumbai Terror Attack. A terrorist with American passport is truly a valuable resource for South Asian terror groups. On the other hand, their dependence on foreign safe havens and sponsors also means that they are at mercy of international events and diplomatic pressure. This has been validated by the decrease in number of attacks by Pakistanbased groups in the last four years, which are believed to have been pressurized by Pakistani Government agencies as well as their diverted attention towards the War in Afghanistan. Moreover, their foreign nature also makes it more difficult for them to operate in the megacities as their cadres are obviously outsiders. This allows an important advantage for security forces in their efforts towards prevention.
International Jihadist Network

The International Jihadist Network is a collective label for all Islamist terror organizations based in Pakistan or Bangladesh like Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT), Jaish-eMohammed (JeM), Harkat-ul-Jihad-al-Islami (HUJI-B) etc. While markedly different in their leadership structure, ideologies and objectives, these groups have been known to share similar tactics, capabilities and strategies. Moreover, in many occasions they have cooperated with each other. These groups have been collectively responsible for a majority of the attacks carried out in Delhi and Mumbai, including most audacious attacks like Mumbai Terror Attack of 2008 and Attack on the Parliament in 2001. First distinguishing feature of these groups is the fact that
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Another aspect of their foreign nature is that they are capable of sea borne attack which would not be risked by an India-based group which would be subject to scrutiny on both port of departure as well as arrival. Thus coastline of Mumbai presents a severe vulnerability in their case. These groups have been known to use superior explosive devices and better finances. They are also the only groups capable of implementing a fidayeen attack. However, their greatest strength is the ability to foster other groups within India and supplying them with resources and the technical know-how. This brings us to the other threat namely indigenous groups. far superior tactics than any international group, especially in the case of synchronization of explosions and use of secondary device. For example, the Ahmedabad Bombings of 2008 perpetrated by IM consisted of 21 explosions citywide within 70 minutes, which is much superior to any attack by an international group in India. More importantly, IM used secondary devices in this particular case, planting devices to go off in hospitals with enough time-lag to hit the victims of first wave of blasts being rushed in. This indicates that they had studied the emergency response times, inner-city distances and pattern of ambulance services. On the similar logic, a hypothesis can be proposed that due the very lack of resources may propel indigenous groups to be more effective and adaptive in their behaviour. This is akin to the resource curse theory that overabundance of resources remove incentives for nations to develop. Similarly, it may be the case that paucity of resources may force indigenous groups to evolve and adopt more effective tactics since they face greater challenges. If so is the case, they may end up posing a far greater threat for India in the coming future.
Indigenous Islamist Groups

The indigenous Islamist groups - most notable being Indian Mujahideen (IM) - have been existent in India for a long time, but seem to have become more active in the recent groups. This may be attributed to greater pressure on Pakistan-based groups to limit their activities in India, which has led them to pass the baton. Barring the Mumbai Attack of 2008, these groups are believed to have been behind all the attacks carried out in Megacities since 2007. These groups, being of Indian origin, face completely opposite advantages and handicaps compared to the international groups. They are constantly under pressure from security forces and therefore have are unlikely to waste time waiting for the right date. However, given their permanent presence in India, they have a much quicker turnaround time and can launch attacks in quick succession, as was seen in 2008. Similarly, lack of safe havens and greater international support means that they are the poorer cousins of LeT. This means that since training is hard to come by, their personnel are more valuable. They are unlikely to carry out any risky missions that may result in loss of good cadres. It also means that even small number of arrests by security forces may disrupt their operations, as was seen after 2008 nationwide arrests and encounters of IM operatives. This paucity of their resources is also reflected in their inferior explosive devices, which are usually based on ammonium nitrate, instead RDX which is common for international groups. However, what they lack in resources is made up in tactics and organization. The indigenous groups have displayed
Hindu Right-wing Terrorist Organizations

Hindu Right-wing Terrorist Organizations are relatively new phenomenon comprising of lesser-known groups like Abhinav Bharat. These groups have loose ideologies and unclear objectives. Given that they have repeatedly refused to take responsibility for any attack, it is very difficult to identify which attacks are they responsible for. However, they have been suspected in at least four attacks across India. The Hindu terror groups have displayed a much inferior
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technical know-how and technical capabilities than previously discussed groups. They have been known to use fuel bombs indicating lack of resources. They have also shown a surprising lack of operational security. Most important information to be drawn from their case is linkages of crime and terrorism. According to the confession by Swami Aseemanand, a member of Abhinav Bharat, lacking the technical capabilities of building explosive devices, the group had hired outsiders to build and deploy bombs. Notably, these mercenaries were Muslims. This indicates that there are certain individuals active in India who are available for hire as bomb-makers and they operate independent of ideologies. An important factor to note with regards to Hindu rightwind groups is that given their loosely-defined ideology it is very difficult to ascertain their preferences or motives. This means that it is much more difficult to predict their target choices or attack strategies since their activities are based on inconsistent logic. In other words, of all terrorist groups, Hindu terror groups have displayed an extraordinary amount of irrationality in their behaviour. Accordingly, it is very difficult to anticipate their next attack. An attack carried out by Maoists would most likely be an assassination attempt of a specific individual, probably a government official or a political figure. Choice of such target would like be either revenge or an attempt to gain political capital in their area of operation. Therefore, the target is likely to be someone directly involved in counterinsurgency operations or someone in responsible for a controversial policy being opposed by traditional political base of the Maoists. Another attack possible by the Maoists may be a desperate attempt to force Government to ease military pressure on them. Such an attack would most likely be made on military installations or critical infrastructure. Given the need for popular support, Maoists usually refrain from indiscriminate violence against civilians. Therefore, an attack on crowded areas is unlikely. Attack on defence or paramilitary installations is plausible but given the security of such targets, it would be very difficult for the Maoists to execute such an attack with using suicide attackers. If so, such suicide attack by the Maoists would be their first. More likely, they may attack a critical infrastructure by sabotaging/ bombing. In such attacks, Maoists have proficiency, and if such an attack is large enough, it is bound to serve its purpose.
International Terrorist Groups

Finally, there is the threat of International terrorist groups. These are the groups that have are not ideologically opposed to India but to a third country or entity, which they may target within Indian boundary. For example, Palestinian terrorist groups may attempt an attack on Israeli citizens or buildings in India similar to their attack on Israeli athletes during Berlin Olympics. While such an attack has not taken place until now, it is entirely plausible. In fact, it is more likely than an attack by the Maoists. Such an attack would most likely be carried out against foreign embassies, consulates or diplomats. However, specific religious institutions and businesses may also be at threat.
Maoists
Maoists, especially the Communist Party of India (Maoist), have been leading insurgency in the eastern India for several decades. Although politically motivated, the Maoists have never been known to have attacked either Megacity. In fact, they have little presence in either Delhi or Mumbai. According to their military doctrine, Maoists are likely to refrain from any insurgent activity in an urban area for decades to come. However, this does not stop them from executing a one-time terrorist attack in Delhi or Mumbai.
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SPECIAL FEATURE
Industrial SecurityWhen State Governments Dont Cooperate
Incident in Haldia is a lesson for Indian Industry
-Pathikrit Payne
at gunpoint and were later released with stern warning to leave Haldia and never to return again. Reports state that in spite of repeated distress calls to Haldia Police, help never reached on time which is being seen as reluctance on the part of the ruling party to take stringent action against the alleged perpetrators who have allegiance to their labour union and any action to protect the interest of the company would send so-called wrong signals to the voters in a season of crucial Panchayat elections in the state. The shocking aspect of the entire incident has been that even though the Calcutta High Court had ordered the state government to provide adequate security to the concerned company and its officials, and even though for that purpose the company had already deposited Rs 17, 45,730 as a payment for security provision, nothing was done to prevent the criminal acts of abduction and intimidation. As a result of this imbroglio, the management of HBT eventually decided to quit the operations in Bengal which is reminiscent of the manner in which the TATA employees in Singur were continuously intimidated resulting in the eventual pullout of the TATAs from Singur.
The incident of Haldia Bulk Terminals, a joint venture between ABG Ports and LDA of France, stalling its operations in Haldia and deciding to quit the state of West Bengal citing law & order problem, brings to the forth the important issue of industrial security and what options are left with the industry when a state government allegedly does not provide adequate security. Law & Order being a state subject in India, the responsibility of the providing adequate security for industrial hubs and maintaining a conducive environment lies solely with the respective state governments. In case of Haldia Bulk Terminals, which invested around Rs 164 crore and entered into a contract with Calcutta Port Trust to operate two of the four mechanised berths of Haldia Port, it has been alleged that the state government and the local police has been reluctant to provide adequate security to the personnel of the concerned company in the wake of a labour unrest arising out of the retrenchment of 275 workers due to paucity of work. It is alleged, as per media reports, that Calcutta Port Trust was not giving enough work to Haldia Bulk Terminals and was instead diverting work to another company which handles operations in the non-mechanised berths. As per media reports Haldia Bulk Terminals have been incurring loss of an estimated Rs 2 crore per year, as it was not getting enough cargo from the Calcutta Port Trust for handling. As a result it was forced to retrench 275 employees which resulted in major law & order crisis in the region. As per media reports, three officials of HBT and their family members were abducted by unidentified assailants
THE HELPLESSNESS OF INDUSTRY

The issue at hand which is a concern for the industry as a whole is what can a company do when the protection of its assets and employees become secondary to petty political calculations of the government and polity? How can a business house operate if the state police machinery turns a blind eye towards alleged criminal acts under political pressure? Who then takes care of the massive amount of money already invested in the assets? Hindustan Times reported CEO of HBT Gurpreet Malhi stating, We wereforced to walk out from Haldia as the agencies entrusted with law and order openly abandoned their responsibility. The existence of a business organisation in a particular place and sound execution of business activities not only benefits the concerned organisation and its employees, but also the state government in terms of tax payment, and the immediate economic environment through the development of ancillary businesses. The success of one major business organisation in a particular place also works as a catalyst in terms of attracting more investments in the region. On
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SPECIAL FEATURE
the contrary, exit of a business house due to worsening law & order situation or labour crisis invariably results in major slump in economic activities in the region. A case in point in Singur which was gradually thriving based on the major investments of the Tata Group in the small car factory and was about to become a major industrial hub. But after the exit of Tatas from that place owing to law & order problem and continued political opposition to the proposed small car factory, Singur now resembles almost a desert owing to lack of job opportunities and drying up of any investment. Meanwhile Tata Motors relocation of the plant to Sanand in Gujarat acted as a catalyst to bring in more investment from automobile sector in that place with both Ford and Maruti Suzuki lining up major investments in Gujarat. Haldia is likely to face the same fate as that of Singur with the exit of HBT as more of the ships would prefer to dock at Paradip.
ALLOW PRIVATE SECTOR TO SEEK CENTRAL HELP DIRECTLY IF STATE GOVERNMENTS DO NOT PROVIDE ADEQUATE SECURITY
Law & Order being a state subject in India, police have often been found to towing to the line of the ruling party and rarely does it take a neutral stand. Even in the case of the HBT, the Calcutta High Court expressed shock at the sheer apathy of the local administration and rued the fact that in spite of major tensions in the Haldia dock, no senior police officer visited that place. Given this kind of a situation, it is time to both allow private sector to have its own armed security for securing its men and material and also giving it the option to directly requisition central help in case it finds that help from state police machinery is not forthcoming. Giving that option would invariably force the states to realise that their responsibility towards industry is paramount and that it cannot be made secondary to petty political issues. Starting a business and executing it properly is not a matter of joke and it takes a considerable amount of risk taking and human endeavour. Sudden pullout or lockout results in the inability of the company to pay back to the creditors which results in bad debt for the banks and thus, something like this happening in a large scale would result in major economic crisis for the nation. It is high time India stops taking its industry for granted and ensure its safety for the economic security of the nation.
WHAT IS THE BEST PRACTICE IN DEVELOPED NATIONS?

In most of the developed countries, major business organisations are allowed to hire armed private security contractors for perimeter security. In India private security companies have not yet been granted the permission to procure small arms on their own. As a result, industry is often found to be guarded by unarmed personnel and completely depend on the local police for security related issues. The security of employees of any organisation is no doubt the responsibility of that organisation but what can any business organisation do if it is not provided adequate help by the states police machinery owing to political pressure? Does it then have any other option left other than to pullout from that place?
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Insights into Indian Terrorism
In an effort to counter terrorism in major cities, SWI did an in-depth analysis of the trends of terror attacks that have happened in Mumbai and New Delhi over the last two decades. Following are the insights gleaned from it.
overriding concern for terrorists rather than maximizing the damage. This is an important lesson to be drawn, especially if urban design can in some way ensure that minimize the possibility of damage in terrorists most favoured targets. In doing so, it can be confident that the terrorists will not change their target preferences only because of diminishing returns. For example, if by architectural design, it can be ensured that open-air crowded markets have lower density of traffic, thereby minimizing the effect of any blast, then it is unlikely that the terrorists will switch targets merely over this consideration. There have been some attacks on targets that may have carried symbolic value. However, these attacks were not more effective than attacks carried out elsewhere. However, they were usually better-planned. This may be explained by the fact that many buildings with symbolic value or international recognition are usually better protected, which helps in deterring the attacks as well as minimizing the damage done by them. Most attacks on Government buildings have been essentially ineffective by design i.e. terrorists did not attempt to maximize the damage. Instead, purpose of such attacks seems to be sending political message. By far, the greatest threat is to communal spaces such as open-air markets, where overwhelming number of attacks have been carried out. Minimal security, ease of access and the general perception that a blast in a crowded market would create panic, explain this trend. Over the years, the number of attacks has decreased; however, their quality has increased. In fact, attacks carried out since 2007 have been considerably more effective in raking up causalities than any attack before, other than the 1993 Mumbai Blasts. This indicates a growing sophistication in the know-how of the terror groups.
Almost all attacks have been made against stationary targets a building or a geographic location, rather than a person or a group of people. It is reasonable to assume that this trend will continue. Attacks on Mumbai have been traditionally betterplanned and more deadly. Accordingly, the counterterrorism efforts should give the city higher priority over Delhi. Additionally, effort should be made by Mumbai city security forces to emulate Delhis counter-terror efforts. Most favoured target for the terrorist has been public places with little or no security followed by transportation infrastructure, namely buses and railways, and Government Buildings. Political organizations and religious institutions remain relatively unaffected. Deterrence works. There has been only one instance of terrorists attempting to breach a security perimeter. In almost all the cases, visible security measures, even if merely pro forma, are enough deter would-be terrorists. The attackers seem to be more concerned about where to attack than how much causality. In other words, the fact that explosion does happen seems to be
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BUSINESS OPPORTUNITY
The Indian Homeland Security and Defence Markets
Heading for Convergence
-Pathikrit Payne
In the post 26/11 era, the world suddenly realised the importance of giving equal attention to the concept of internal security or Homeland Security by taking much of the cue from USA. Several of the major defence contractors who have hitherto only focussed on products meant for securing a nation from an external enemy in a conventional warfare or invasion type scenario, have started new divisions to primarily cater to the homeland security requirements of nations. It is a foregone conclusion that with increased integration of the national economies in the international arena and with increased commercial and human interactions in the real and the virtual world, the chances of the responsible and developed (including developing) countries going for conventional warfare with each other is gradually coming down. That does not though mean that their defence budgets would automatically reflect that. Defence spending would continue at the pace at which it has been going on in the past but more than quantity it is quality of weapons systems that would get enhanced and is evident in case of most countries. However the decrease in the possibilities of conventional warfare does not necessarily make the world a safer place to live in, as it has gone hand in hand with an exponential increase in the possibilities of asymmetric warfare with non-state actors who in certain cases act based on an ideology and have pan-continental presence while in certain other cases have been found to be working with tacit blessings of some governments. Whatever the case might be the criticality of protecting every infrastructural facility, public place and institutes of national importance have increased phenomenally. With increasing sophistication and complexities of the way the terror and extremist organisations have been operating, the law enforcement agencies and the federal police forces, who most of the time are entrusted with containing and deactivating them, have been facing the ardent challenge of increasing their own weapons and other combat systems. So much so that in certain spheres there is not much difference between the kind of weapon systems and associated combat gears that the conventional armed forces personnel would use and what the law enforcement agencies need to use in the changing circumstances. Thus while as of yet it has been witnessed that the homeland security market has been defined as a separate market from that of the market for defence products, one can easily find considerable amount of convergence between the two. This convergence or common ground is only going to increase with time. This article would attempt to make a select list of areas where one can witness considerable convergence in the Indian market.
ASSAULT RIFLES
Gone are the days when top notch assault rifles were meant only for the armed forces and the police being given the vintage Lee Enfield .303 rifle and a wooden stick (call lathi) for general policing. With most states in India facing the risk of either Maoists terrorism or Islamic terrorism or both at the same time and with some of Indias states also facing separatist elements, almost all the states have been attempting a major makeover of their state level police machineries. Among the frontline police organisations which have started this initiative are invariably the Central Armed Police Forces, which, in addition to border guarding, are tasked with the mandate to assist the state level forces as a force multiplier. In the last few years the Union Home Ministry bought, a. 69,965 AK-47 Rifles b. 16,430 Assault Rifles
THE CONVERGENCE OF HOMELAND SECURITY AND DEFENCE MARKETS

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c. 2537 X-95 Assault Rifles from Israel d. 34,377 Mx4 Storm Carbine from Beretta for BSF e. 1576 MP-5 Submachine Guns f. 2608 Glock Pistols. g. For the year 2012, Delhi Police has plans to procure another 1368 MP5 Sub Machine Guns and 3440 Glock pistols. h. In 2010 itself, Delhi Police had bought around 10,000 9mm pistols and 3450 Glock Pistols. In the next few years state level police forces in India would try to augment their strength of armed police which is at present having a deficit of around 4 lakh personnel. Further, Central Armed Police Forces like ITBP, SSB and CISF are also increasing the strength of their personnel. Even though majority of them are likely to be equipped with the indigenously made INSAS 5.56 mm and SLR 7.62 mm rifles, considerable opportunities do still exist for the procurement of other varieties of assault rifles and pistols. Further, under the Modernisation of Police Force Scheme, during the period 2009-2011, state level police forces were provided with 107786 weapon systems, primarily assault rifles and pistols. Moreover reports state that an estimated order for nearly 30,000 MP5 have been given by the Union Home Ministry after clubbing together the requirements of National Security Guard along with that of the various state level law enforcement agencies and Special Forces. A case in point is the Tavor Assault Rifle which is now being used by the Special Forces of Indian Army, Navys Marcos as well as the CRPF, vindicating the level of convergence between the need of armed forces and police forces. police forces involved in anti Maoist operations. In 2009, the Comptroller and Auditor General stated that there is a shortfall of about 1.86 lakh bullet proof jackets in Army . There is an urgent need to bridge this deficit. The qualitative requirements would almost be perhaps the same as that required for the Central Police Forces, with the prime requirement being that of being lightweight and also being able to withstand a 7.62 mm bullet. Further there are special requirements for the Special Forces of India which includes the NSG, Garud, Marcos, Sagar Prahari Bal, Paras and Ghatak of Indian Army, Cobra of CRPF as well as the SPG. Under the Modernisation of Police Force Scheme, state police forces have also been provided with 26465 bullet proof jackets. Thus for companies dealing with bullet proof vests and helmets, the homeland security market and the defence market are not different but one grand market with different customers.
HAND-HELD THERMAL IMAGERS, PASSIVE NIGHT VISION BINOCULARS AND WEAPONS SIGHTS
During the period from 2008-2011, the Union Home Ministry procured the following for the Central Armed Police Forces: 1164 hand Held Thermal Imagers 8109 PNS Weapons Sights 9792 Passive Night Vision Binoculars.
BULLET PROOF VESTS AND HELMETS

The demand for bullet proof jackets has been increasing not just in case of the armed forces but also for the central armed police forces as well as the state level Special Forces. In the last three years the Union Home Ministry purchased 89,641 light weight bullet proof jackets and more are being purchased for the state level
20
As the fight against the Maoists intensifies, and the
FEBRUARY 18, 2013
security forces penetrate deep into the Maoist bastions in treacherous forests of Dantewada and elsewhere, there would be huge requirements for such hand held thermal Imagers, Weapons Sights and Night Vision Binoculars. Similar requirements and perhaps in much larger scale also exist for Indias armed forces to equip the Special Forces and the infantry soldiers. Indian Armys ambitious F-INSAS programme (Future Infantry Soldier As A System) endeavour to equip its personnel with similar equipments. In the recent past CRPF also came out with tenders for 4000 specialised Human Detecting Night Vision Devices and 3000 night vision binoculars. Motors recently supplied five Mine Protection Vehicles to Jharkhand Police, it has an order for 32 Mine Protection Vehicles from Maharashtra State Police. As per media reports Jharkhand Police has already procured more than hundred Mine Protection Vehicles. Meanwhile the Indian Army too have considerable requirements for Mine Protection Vehicles, Mine Sweeping Vehicles and Mine Laying systems. The Indian Army has in its arsenal a substantial number of Mine Protection Vehicles. As per a press release by Mahindra & Mahindra, BAE Systems have supplied more than 165 Casspir Mine Protection Vehicles to Indian Army. Incidentally Mahindra & Mahindra now has a joint venture with BAE Systems namely Defence Land Systems India (DLSI) which has already started delivering Mine Protection Vehicles to states like Jharkahnd and DLSI has also been shortlisted for Indias ambitious Future Infantry Combat Vehicle (FICV) Programme.
MINE PROTECTION VEHICLES
HANDHELD GPS DEVICES COMMUNICATION SYSTEMS
AND
OTHER
Over the years, it has been seen that the Maoists have relied heavily on IED (Improvised Explosive Devices) in their fight against the Security Forces since the Maoists have limitations with respect to firepower and can never match the security forces in face to face gun battles. However it is mostly during the troop movements in trucks on unpaved jungle roads that they are most vulnerable to attacks through IEDs detonated by Maoists. Keeping this in mind several modifications have been made in the Standard Operation Procedure (SOP) of the Security Forces and wherever possible, efforts are being made to avoid the use of vehicles to reduce the chances of falling in the trap of IEDs. Meanwhile efforts have also been made to procure a large number of Mine Protection Vehicles which can give at least a certain amount of protection to the troops from any kind of IED detonation. During the period 2008-2011, the Union Home Ministry procured 105 Mine Protection Vehicles for the Central Armed Police Forces, especially CRPF which is at the forefront of fight against Maoists. Further, states like Jharkhand and Maharashtra which are at the forefront of fighting Maoists have also been procuring large number of Mine Protection Vehicles. While TATA
One of the key aspects of the Central Governments Modernisation of Police Force Scheme is major improvement in the communication systems of the state police forces including that for Megacity Policing as well as Desert Policing. This includes Static set (HF/UHF), Static sets (VHF) and Mobile sets (Hand held) UHF repeaters, Tetra hand held sets, PA Systems as also satellite phones. In the recent past the Union Home Ministry has sanctioned for the procurement of 16,791 Digital VHF/UHF hand-held radio sets for BSF. Most of the Cobra Personnel of CRPF involved in Anti Maoist Operations are equipped with hand held GPS systems.
FEBRUARY 18, 2013
21
Likewise a major modernisation of the communication system is being undertaken by Indian Army keeping the future in mind. Currently the Indian Army is working on the development of a Tactical Communication System as well as a Battlefield Management System. Further, under the F-INSAS programme of Indian Army, plans are afoot to equip every soldier with hand held GPS Navigation System. Eventually one would witness considerable convergence between the communication devices being used by Indias Armed Forces and Central Police Forces as well as other Law Enforcement Agencies. UAVs for Indian Air Force and Indian Navy, Indian Army has come out with a separate RFP for the procurement of MiniUAVs. Specifically Indian Army intends to procure 24 MiniUAVs for counter Insurgency operations in J&K. The market for UAVs and Mini UAVs would be one of the most lucrative markets in the coming years and apart from DRDO which is already developing UAVs like Nishant and Rustom, Indian private majors like Tata Advanced Systems have already started developing Mini UAVs. Much akin to the market for Mini-UAVs, the market for helicopters too would see major upward trends in the coming years. While Indian Air Force is already procuring 80 MI-17V5 Medium Lift Helicopters and would be giving orders for another 59 of the same, it has already selected Boeing for the purchase of 22 Apache AH-64 Helicopters and 15 Chinook Heavy Lift Helicopter among others. In the next one decade Indian Armed Forces would be inducting around 1000 helicopters and there is a very high possibility that many of Indias Central Armed Police Forces too would have their own air wing. While BSF already has its own air wing, it is highly likely that both ITBP and CRPF would have their own air wing in the near future with a considerable number of medium and light helicopters as air assets in order to reduce their dependence on Indian Air Force.
MINI UAVS AND HELICOPTER
The emergence of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV) or drones have literally revolutionised the concept of counterinsurgency warfare. The American Armed Forces have been extensively using drones namely the Reaper and Predator in their battle theatre in Afghanistan and the restive North West Frontier Province of Pakistan. In India, even though UAVs or helicopters have not yet been used for any kind of offensive operations, a certain number of UAVs from the stable of Indian Air Force are already been used from time to time for surveillance and reconnaissance purpose in the forested terrains of Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand. While the Indian Air Force operates more than 150 UAVs of Israeli origin namely Searcher and Heron as also Harpy, the Indian Navy and Indian Army also uses large number of UAVs for surveillance purpose. Meanwhile BSF and CRPF has till now been using mini UAVs like Netra, but now as recent media reports suggest that CRPF is contemplating the raising of their own air surveillance units and want to procure more advanced UAVs. Likewise, while the Defence Ministry has sent out Request For Proposal (RFP) for 95
22
On a concluding note it can be stated with impunity that the Indian Defence and Homeland Security Markets are definitely heading for a convergence in certain respects and instead of having separate verticals to cater to defence and homeland security market, companies would do better to have product verticals which can then cater to both the Indian Armed Forces and Central as well as State Level Police Forces considering them as similar if not the same market.
FEBRUARY 18, 2013
June 2013
THE ASIAN HOMELAND SECURITY& COUNTER TERROR SUMMIT
24 -25
th
th
The Queen Elizabeth II Conference Centre London, UK
BRINGING ASIA TO YOUR DOORSTEP

Securing Asia is the only Asia focused interactive platform where representatives of Asian nations and Western security suppliers can meet and address vital issues and business opportunities related to Homeland Security and Counter Terror measures. Securing Asia 2013, aims to create profit from participation for all its partners and will once again attract the international security and intelligence communities comprising of governments, academia, research and industry professionals who will share their experiences, knowledge and expertise in tackling the various problems currently faced by Governments and Agencies around the world and also provide a neutral platform to explore and sign new business deals and partnerships. Securing Asia 2012 witnessed participation from Defence, Police, Military and Para-military forces of over 22 countries including Bangladesh, Brunei, Georgia, India, Japan, Jordan, Myanmar, Nepal, Oman, Poland, Saudi Arabia, Somalia, Taiwan and UAE among others. THE SECTOR FOCUS FOR 2013: AVIATION & TRANSPORT SECURITY CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE PROTECTION & CBRNE CYBER SECURITY & FORENSICS IED DETECTION & COUNTER MEASURES MARITIME SECURITY & ANTI-PIRACY
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Over the course of two days (24th and 25th June 2013), the Summit will encompass a conference, a business exhibition, numerous networking opportunities and access to specialised concierge and business facilitation services. Attendees will exchange knowledge and technical know-how in order to arrive at customised security solutions.
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FEBRUARY 18, 2013 23 www.securingasia.com
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FEBRUARY 18, 2013