Airbus Global Market Forecast 2013-2032 Slides

Global Market Forecast 2013-2032
Presented by: JOHN LEAHY COO, Customers
Global Market Forecast 2013: Highlights

GMF 2013 key numbers and 20-year change
World Fleet Forecast
2012
2032
% Change
RPK (trillions)
Passenger aircraft fleet New passenger aircraft deliveries Dedicated freighters New freighter aircraft deliveries
5.5
16,094
13.9
33,651 28,355
151%
109%
1,645
2,905 871
77%
Total New Aircraft Deliveries
29,226
Market value of $4.4 trillion

Passenger aircraft 100 seats, Freight aircraft 10t Source: Airbus GMF
AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
20-year demand for 29,230 new passenger and freight aircraft

20-year new deliveries of passenger and freight aircraft
20,242 single-aisle aircraft

+724 aircraft over GMF 2012
7,273 twin-aisle aircraft

+299 aircraft
1,711 very large aircraft

+5 aircraft
29,226 new aircraft

+1,028 aircraft
Passenger aircraft ( 100 seats) Jet freight aircraft (>10 tons)
Source: Airbus GMF
Market value of $4.4 trillion
Passenger traffic is outperforming GDP growth

August Passenger Traffic World real GDP and passenger traffic (year-over-year) 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Real GDP World passenger traffic (ASKs)
+7.1%
-2%
-4% J Q1 M Q2 M J Q3 S Q4 N J Q1 M Q2 M J Q3 S Q4 N J Q1 M Q2 M J Q3 S Q4 N J Q1 M Q2 M J Q3 S Q4 N J Q1 M Q2 M J Q3 S Q4 N J Q1 M Q2 M J Q3 S Q4 N
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
World air transport is recovering after 12 months of slower growth

Source: IHS Global Insight (August 2013 data), OAG (ASKs data), Airbus
A two-speed world
Comparison of year-over-year GDP growth
Real GDP growth (%) 10%
History Forecast
8%
6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018
Emerging economies*
Mature economies
54 emerging economies. Data Source: IHS Global Insight, Airbus

Air transport growth is highest in expanding regions

China India Middle East Asia Africa CIS Latin America Eastern Europe Western Europe North America Japan
Emerging/Developing
Yearly RPK growth 2013 -2032
6
billion
people 2013
Advanced
1
billion
people 2013
Billions of people will increasingly want to travel by air

Source: IHS Global Insight, Airbus
Passenger traffic growth varies by region

ASKs year-over-year monthly evolution (%)
Emerging Markets Traffic
16%
+13.2%
12%
Western Europe Traffic
8% 4% 0% -4% -8% -12%
+4.6%
US Traffic
+2.4%
J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Strong growth on Emerging Markets, US and Europe with positive growth

Source: OAG, Airbus
Page 7
Emerging economies are driving future growth

Today 28%
of worldwide GDP
69%
of worldwide population (4.9 billion people)
39%
of world passenger trips
39%
of world fleet-inservice
2032 40%
of worldwide GDP
67%
of worldwide population (5.7 billion people)
54%
of world passenger trips
51%
of world fleet-inservice
Emerging economies (54 countries) All other countries (150 countries)
Emerging economies represents 50% of new aircraft demand over the next 20 years
More new fliers from the emerging markets

Trips* per capita over GDP per capita Trips* per capita - 2012 10
China - 2032 .95 trips per capita
1
India - 2032 .25 trips per capita
United Kingdom 1.91 trips per capita
USA 1.53 trips per capita
0.1
China .26 trips per capita India .05 trips per capita
0.01
of the of the of population population of the emerging the emerging countries will countries took take a trip aa trip in year in2012 2032
2/3 1/5
0.001
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000 120,000 2012 GDP per capita ($US)
Source: Sabre (annualized September 2012 data), IHS Global Insight, Airbus * Passengers originating from respective country
Air travel has proved to be resilient to external shocks

World annual traffic (RPKs - trillions)
Oil Crisis
5.0
Oil Crisis
Gulf Crisis
Financial Asian WTC SARS Crisis Crisis Attack
67%
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0 1967
1972
1977
1982
1987
1992
1997
2002
2007
2012
67% growth through multiple crises over the last ten years
Source: ICAO, Airbus
2013 Airbus order backlog by region

Europe & CIS
North America
18%
12%
Middle East Lessors
8%
Asia Pacific
19%
Latin America Africa
36%
6%
1%
Backlog of 5,190 aircraft

As at end August 2013 Corporate, MRTT and undisclosed 1%
Main drivers of traffic and fleet growth

Aviation increasingly at the centre of peoples journeys More people, more wealth, bigger cities urban population set to grow from 51% today
to over 60%
Emerging markets, more first time flyers and a growing middle class which will
grow from 2.2 billion today to 5.2 billion
Growing tourism and internationalisation will stimulate demand More liberalisation to come, particularly in Asia, Africa and Latin America Replacement of less eco-efficient aircraft - 2/3 of existing fleet will be replaced
Low cost model set to grow in Asia-Pacific and Africa

Growth in the number of Aviation mega-cities driving demand for VLAs
Month 200X
Traffic will double in the next 15 years

2012-2032
World annual RPK (trillion)

16
ICAO total traffic
Airbus GMF 2013

2022-2032
4.7%
4.4%
14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 1972
2012-2022
5.1%
Air traffic has doubled every 15 years Air traffic will double in the next 15 years
1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 2012 2017 2022 2027 2032
Source: ICAO, Airbus
Asia-Pacific to lead in world traffic by 2032

RPK traffic by airline domicile (billions)
0
Asia-Pacific
1,000
2012 traffic
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
% of 2012 world RPK
20-year growth
% of 2032 world RPK
2012-2032 traffic
29%
5.5%
34%
Europe
26%
3.8%
22%
North America
25%
3.0%
18%
Middle East
8%
7.1%
12%
Latin America
20-year world annual traffic growth
5%
6.0%
7%
CIS
4.7%
4%
5.8%
4%
Africa
3%
5.1%
3%
Domestic PRC will be the largest flow in 2032

Largest O&D flows in 2032
2012 2032 Billions RPK Domestic PRC Domestic USA Intra Western Europe Western Europe - USA Asia - Western Europe Domestic India Asia - PRC Domestic Brazil Intra Asia Western Europe - Middle East Western Europe - South America Domestic Asia Asia - Middle East Western Europe - PRC Indian Sub - Middle East Asia - USA PRC - USA Central Europe - Western Europe South America - USA Indian Sub - USA 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 2012 2032
20-year CAGR 7.0% 1.9% 2.9% 3.0% 4.3% 9.8%
6.2%
7.0% 6.1% 4.8% 4.8% 5.7% 8.0%
5.7%
6.1% 4.2% 6.5% 5.9% 5.3% 6.6%
Single-aisle: 69% of units; Wide-bodies: 59% of value

20-year new deliveries of passenger and freighter aircraft
20,000
29,226
16,000 12,000 8,000 4,000 0
Single-aisle Small twin-aisle Intermediate twin-aisle
GMF 2012 GMF 2013
New Deliveries
2013 -2032
Very Large Aircraft
% units % value
69% 41%
17% 26%
8% 17%
6% 16%
Passenger aircraft ( 100 seats) and jet freight aircraft (>10 tons) Source: Airbus
Approaching 10,000 A320 Family sales

9,821 firm orders 5,715 deliveries 4,106 firm order backlog (1,758 ceo, 2,348 neo)
A take-off or landing every 2.5 seconds, with 99.6% reliability

End August 2013
High oil prices here for the long-term

Long-term oil price forecast
180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Brent oil price (current US$ per bbl)
History
Forecast
Source: EIA, IHS CERA (May 2013), Airbus
A320neo offers environmental benefits

Annual fuel savings of 15% equate to:
1.4 m litres of fuel: the consumption of 1000 mid size cars
3,600 tonnes of CO2

the CO2 absorption of 240,000 trees
NOx emissions 50% below CAEP/6 500nm more range

or 2 tonnes more payload
Aircraft noise up to 15dB below Stage IV

Significant environmental improvements
A320neo leads the 737 MAX in orders and customers
42 customers
A320neo 2,348 orders 61%
737 MAX 1,498 orders 39%
20 customers + 8 unannounced orders
A320neo is the preferred market option

Data to end August 2013, Source: Airbus Orders & Deliveries, Boeing.com
A330 Family deliveries pass 1,000

1,256 firm orders 1,008 deliveries 248 backlog
A take-off or landing every 25 seconds, with 99.0% reliability

To end August 2013
Maintaining market leadership
Delta order 10 x 242t A330-300s to add to their current A330-200/300 fleet
242t A330-200 matches mature 787-8 range

European capability Trans-Pacific capability
MADRID
TOKYO
ADDIS ABABA
NEW YORK DALLAS ORLANDO
MAURITIUS
787-8 7,350nm range with 246 pax

A330-200 7,250nm range with 246 pax
Pax weight = 95kg, JAR 3% flight profile, LRC, 200nm diversion 787-8 227.9t MTOW, A330-200 242t MTOW
A350 XWB
682 firm orders 35 customers 682 backlog
To end August 2013
MSN1 First flight June 14th, 2013
10% of flight test completed 51 flights, 251 hours flown

Data for 19 September 2013
A350 XWB a complete long-range family

Airbus
A350-1000
Boeing
777-9X 777-8X
A350-900
777-300ER 787-10 787-9 787-8
A350-800
One New Family of technically superior aircraft
Two aircraft types a generation apart
A step ahead of the 787, a generation beyond the 777
Unrivalled A350-1000 efficiency

A350-1000 is unbeatable
LHR
+ 40T
SIN
MTOW
777-300ER requires +40t higher MTOW (+20 t. Fuel burnt + 20 t. Structure)
The A350-1000 provides a step change in efficiency

6,500 nm mission, 350 passengers
42 cities in the world handle more than 10,000 long haul passengers per day
2012 Aviation Mega-Cities
42
Aviation Megacities
0.8M
Daily Passengers: Long Haul traffic to /from/via Mega Cities traffic
93%

>50 000 daily long-haul passengers >20 000 daily long-haul passengers >10 000 daily long-haul passengers
of long-haul traffic on routes to/from/via 42 cities
Long-haul traffic is concentrated on a few main aviation centres

Source: GMF 2013; Cities with more than 10,000 daily passengers Long haul traffic: flight distance >2,000nm, excl. domestic traffic;
and by 2032 there will be 90 Mega-cities

2032 Aviation Mega-Cities
89
Aviation Megacities
2.2M
Daily Passengers: Long Haul traffic to /from/via Mega Cities
99%

>50 000 daily long-haul passengers >20 000 daily long-haul passengers >10 000 daily long-haul passengers
of long-haul traffic on routes to/from/via 90 cities
Long-haul traffic is more and more concentrated on main aviation centres

Source: GMF 2013; Cities with more than 10,000 daily passengers Long haul traffic: flight distance >2,000nm, excl. domestic traffic;
A380
262 firm orders 20 customers 154 backlog
120,000 revenue flights 1 million flight hours 44 million passengers carried A take-off or landing every 5 minutes
Orders/backlog August 2013
A380 is the markets VLA of choice

Cumulative net orders for passenger aircraft in airline use 300 250 11% 200 89% 150 100 50 0 2001
747-8 31orders 4 airlines
Market share (number of orders) 747-8 A380
A380 261 orders 19 airlines
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Outselling the competition 8 to 1

As at end August 2013, Source: Airbus Orders & Deliveries, Boeing.com Does not include VIP versions
The next chapter for BA
A380 in service between LHR-LAX, TODAY!
Demand for over 29,200 new aircraft

Fleet in service evolution; 2013-2032
40,000 35,000 30,000 18,817 25,000 20,000 15,000 17,739 Growth New aircraft 29,226
+ 3.7% per annum
36,556
10,409
10,000 5,000 0 Beginning 2013 2032
Replaced
7,330
Stay in service & Converted
Source: Airbus Note: Passenger aircraft 100 seats, Freighter aircraft 10 tonnes
Summary
Strong growth in passenger traffic resilient growth through a difficult,
but improving economic period
Demand for over 29,000 new aircraft by 2032 ~28,300 passenger

aircraft and nearly 900 freighter aircraft
Replacement of ageing fleets 20 year demand for nearly 11,000

passenger aircraft for replacement, largely in the single-aisle segment
Single-aisle aircraft represent 70% of demand in units, but widebody aircraft represent 60% of value
VLA demand driven by aviation mega-cities more than 99% of all

long-haul passengers will fly to, from or through these cities by 2032
Global Market Forecast 2013-2032

Presented by: Bob Lange SVP, Market & Product Strategy
Airbus Global Market Forecast

A 20 year aircraft demand and passenger traffic forecast
Market Research
Trends Analysis
Consumer & Travel Surveys Tourism Migration Traffic flows Passenger demands
Forecast
Traffic
Economics and Econometrics Fuel costs Yields Load Factors Trade and Value of Goods
Airlines
Business Models Operations Competition Geopolitics
Network Development
Route planning Origin and destination demand Population centers
Governments & Regulators

Liberalization/ deregulation Investments and constraints Geopolitics
Fleet trends
Aircraft economics Utilization Fleet age and retirements
Understanding the reasons for peoples journeys is key to understanding the market
27%
Immigration flow by region
of all trips are for Visiting Friends and Relatives (VFR)

Pacific North America Latin America Europe/CIS
Asia/Middle East Africa Origin

Source: UN WTO, UN DESA, Airbus
Destination
International students further driving travel

Evolution of the students studying abroad
Millions of students
0
1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007
The number of international students has nearly doubled since 2000

Source: OECD, Airbus
What drives the demand of the future?
World urban population to reach 5 billion by 2030

10 9 Population (billions) History
Urban population Rural population Urbanisation rate
Urbanisation rate Forecast
100% 90% 80%
8
7 6 5 4 3 2
70% 60% 51%
70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%
1
0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Urban population: 1.3B
2.3B
3.5B
5.0B
6.4B
Source: UN Population Division, Airbus
Global Middle Class to more than double

Global Middle Class*
(Millions of people)
5,211
x2.4
5,000
4,000
Other Asia-Pacific North America Europe & CIS 2,228

432 856
3,576
757
578 3,526
3,000
x4.1
2,000
2,038
1,000
265 675
262 698 2022
253 675 2032
0 2012
7,100 32%
7,800 46%
8,400 62%
World Population % of world population
Source: Kharas and Gertz (OECD), Airbus * Households with daily expenditures between $10 and $100 per person (at PPP)
Month 200X
Emerging regions will drive economic growth

Real GDP forecast by period and region
9.0% 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0%
2013 2014 20-year CAGR
World Averages
20-year CAGR 2014 2013
3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% Japan Europe North America Pacific CIS Central America Middle East Asia South America Africa PRC Indian Sub Continent
Source: IHS Global Insight (September 2013), Airbus
Diverse emerging economies spread across the globe
Emerging economies (54 countries) All other countries (150 countries)

Aviation shapes the world

Origin-destination passenger traffic per city, 2013 2032 growth and 2032 volume
2012
2022
2032
Traffic growth (20-year CAGR) Traffic volume (monthly O&D PAX)
0%
12
13%
25 mio
0.1
Source: Sabre, Airbus
Emerging economies grew strongly through the crisis

Offered capacity for emerging and advanced economies (ASKs)
(Base 100 in 2007) 160 150 140 130
Emerging ASKs
+55%
To/from/within emerging economies*
120
110 100 90 80 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
To/from/within advanced economies**
Advanced ASKs
+4%
Source: OAG, Airbus * 54 emerging economies ** 31 advanced economies

Long-haul traffic grows stronger than short haul traffic

Evolution of long-haul vs short-haul traffic (ASKs), 1973-2013,
Index 100 = 1973 *
1000 900 800 700
Long-haul traffic
x9.1
Short haul Long haul
600
500 400 300 200 100 0 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 2013
Short-haul traffic
x6.2
Since 1973, Long-haul traffic has grown 1% per year faster than short-haul traffic
Source: OAG * Long haul traffic: flight distance >2,000nm
Long-haul traffic consolidation

Evolution of traffic per long-haul airline (ASKs), 1973-2013,
Index 100 = 1973 * 400 350 300 250 200 ASKs per Airline Number of Airlines
150
100 50 0 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 2013
Since 1973, the amount of ASKs carried per airline has nearly quadrupled
Source: OAG, Airbus * Long haul traffic: flight distance >2,000nm
Todays Aviation Mega-Cities will continue to drive a huge amount of long-haul traffic
Passenger traffic at cities with more than 10,000 daily passengers
Source: Sabre, Airbus
Cabin Supplier Council
13/09/2013
Details behind the forecast
>200 global traffic flows
>10.000 country pairs >200.000 O&D city pairs >1.000.000 O&D city pair routings
Macro traffic forecast
Micro network forecast
Airbus GMF Methodology to Seabury
GMF 2013 new routes
The GMF 2013 has around 4,000 new airline / airport-pairs by 2032
Airbus Global Market Forecast
Nearly 800 airlines and their subsidiaries are analyzed

Airlines distribution per region
Number of airlines 120 109 100 100 82 80 64 60 41 40 30 19 16% 50 43
20%
Airlines distribution per type
Installed seats in service (outside circle) Number of airlines (inside circle)
81
8%
5%
11% 6% 5%
37
32
36 5% 17 8%
49%
9%
58%
20
0 Global Network Major Network Small Network LCC Regional & Affiliate Charter
Page 52
driving future demand of twin-aisle & VLA segments

20-year demand by category
Worldwide Demand Single-aisle: 20,242 Twin-aisle & VLA: 8,984 Europe CIS Asia Pacific
North America
Middle East
Africa Aircraft Demand Latin America
Twin-aisle/ SingleVLA aisle
Source: GMF 2013
Worldwide demand for 29,226 passenger aircraft

North Latin Asia-Pacific Middle Europe Africa World CIS America America East
30 25
20 Year Aircraft Demand

(Thousands) Africa CIS Latin America Middle East North America
2032 RPKs
(Trillions)
14 12 10 8
20
15
Europe
6 4
10
10,941 29,226 2,307 2,075 5,847 5,952 1.116 988 Aircraft Aircraft Aircraft
5
AsiaPacific
2 0
Traffic by domicile:
~14 12% 18% 22% 34% 3%trillion 4% 7% of of2031 2031 RPKs World World in
RPKs 2031
0 Aircraft Demand RPKs

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Global Market Forecast 2013-2032

Presented by: JOHN LEAHY COO, Customers

Global Market Forecast 2013: Highlights

World Fleet Forecast

Total New Aircraft Deliveries

Market value of $4.4 trillion

20-year demand for 29,230 new passenger and freight aircraft

20,242 single-aisle aircraft

7,273 twin-aisle aircraft

1,711 very large aircraft

29,226 new aircraft

Market value of $4.4 trillion

AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.

Passenger traffic is outperforming GDP growth

World air transport is recovering after 12 months of slower growth

AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.

54 emerging economies. Data Source: IHS Global Insight, Airbus

Air transport growth is highest in expanding regions

Billions of people will increasingly want to travel by air

AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.

Passenger traffic growth varies by region

8% 4% 0% -4% -8% -12%

Strong growth on Emerging Markets, US and Europe with positive growth

AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.

Emerging economies are driving future growth

Emerging economies (54 countries) All other countries (150 countries)

AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.

More new fliers from the emerging markets

United Kingdom 1.91 trips per capita

USA 1.53 trips per capita

100,000 120,000 2012 GDP per capita ($US)

Air travel has proved to be resilient to external shocks

Financial Asian WTC SARS Crisis Crisis Attack

AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.

2013 Airbus order backlog by region

Backlog of 5,190 aircraft

AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.

Main drivers of traffic and fleet growth

Low cost model set to grow in Asia-Pacific and Africa

AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.

Traffic will double in the next 15 years

World annual RPK (trillion)

ICAO total traffic

Airbus GMF 2013

Source: ICAO, Airbus

AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.

Asia-Pacific to lead in world traffic by 2032

% of 2012 world RPK

% of 2032 world RPK

20-year world annual traffic growth

AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.

Domestic PRC will be the largest flow in 2032

AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.

Single-aisle: 69% of units; Wide-bodies: 59% of value

GMF 2012 GMF 2013

Very Large Aircraft

Approaching 10,000 A320 Family sales

A take-off or landing every 2.5 seconds, with 99.6% reliability

AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.

High oil prices here for the long-term

Source: EIA, IHS CERA (May 2013), Airbus

AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.

A320neo offers environmental benefits