= n nE 1 =nn

k=0

1 n 1 n
k

k e k!

1 36-217, 2013 ) )k n Fall ((1 =n n e Homework 3 k ! k=0 Due September 26 = n n e e(11/n)

We recognize this as the powe series for an exponential.

= n n e/n . 1. You choose n random points in succession on the unit circle. (That is, on the perimeter not in the disk.) The position ofis each point chosen uniformly the many circle, pages and the positions When large, theismonk will need toover recopy on average;of all points are independent. Let A be the event that all the points are contained in some semicircle. Let Ai denote when is small, only a few copies will be needed. the event that all the points lie in the semicircle beginning at the i-th point and going clockwise for 180deg, i = EXAMPLE 1 . . . , n. 4.60. Within a Semi-Circle You choose points in succession on the unit circle. (That is, (a) Express A in terms n ofrandom the Ai s. on perimeter not in the disk.) The position of each point is chosen (b) Are the Aithe s disjoint? uniformly over the circle, and the positions of all points are independent. (c) Show that 1 within a semi-circle, or Find the probability that the n points all lie 1 n P ( A ) = n . in other words that they all lie within a 180 2 arc on the circle. (See the Figure below for examples.) See the Figure below for examples.

68 Figure. Example results o the experiment.

All points lie within a semi-circle

All points do not lie within a semi-circle

You can assume that the probability that, for any two points, the line connecting them goes through the center of the circle is 0. 2. Three dierent machines M1 , M2 and M3 produce 20%, 30% and 50% respectively of a large batch of some manufactured item. The percentages of defective items produced by machines M1 , M2 and M3 are 1%, 2% and 3%, respectively. Suppose one item was selected at random and found to be defective. What is the probability that this item was produced by machine M2 ? 3. Suppose we want to generate the outcome of a ip of a fair coin but that all we have at our disposal is a biased coin which lands on heads with some unknown probability 0 < p < 1, which needs not be equal to 1/2. Consider the following procedure for accomplishing our task: (a) Flip the coin. 1

(b) Flip the coin again. (c) If both ips land heads or both land tails returns to step (a) (d) Let the result of the last ip be the result of the experiment. Show that the result is equally likely to be either heads or tails. (Hint: you may want to use the following result, proved in class: suppose A and B are disjoint events of positive probability such that P (A) + P (B ) < 1 and that independent trials of the experiments are performed. Then, the probability that A is observed before B is P (A) . P (A) + P (B ) A simpler procedure would be to continue to ip until the last two ips are dierent and then let the result be the outcome of the last ip. Show this procedure, however, will not result in equally likely outcomes if p = 1/2. 4. A simplied model for the movement of the price of a stock supposes that on each day the stocks price either moves up one unit with probability p or it moves down one unit with probability 1 p. The changes on dierent days are assumed to be independent. (a) What is the probability that after two days the stock will be at its original price? (b) What is the probability that after three days the stocks price will have increased by one unit? (c) Given that after three days the stock price has increased by one unit, what is the probability that it went up on the rst day? 5. Sarah and Dick go target shooting. Suppose that each of Sarahs shots hits the target with probability 0 < p1 < 1, while each shot of Dicks hits the target with probability 0 < p2 < 1. Suppose they shoot simultaneously at the same target and that the events that they each hits the target are independent. If the wooden target is knocked over (indicating that it was hit), what is the probability that (a) both shots hit the duck; (b) Dicks shot hit the dock?