US - Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)

by Eduardo Petazze
Last updated: December 21, 2015
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index moved down to -0.30 in November 2015 (our previous estimate +0.23) from a revised -0.17 in
Oct15 (previous estimate -0.04). For December 2015 no change is expected.
The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 existing monthly indicators of the U.S. economic activity.
It is constructed to have an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one
A zero value for the index indicates that the national economy is expanding at its historical trend rate of growth; negative values
indicate below-average growth; and positive values indicate above-average growth
Latest CFNAI Release: Economic Growth Slowed in Novemberr 2015 pdf, 2 pages

2014:01
2014:02
2014:03
2014:04
2014:05
2014:06
2014:07
2014:08
2014:09
2014:10
2014:11
2014:12
2015:01
2015:02
2015:03
2015:04
2015:05
2015:06
2015:07
2015:08
2015:09
2015:10
2015:11
2015:12
Own estimate
Last data
Summary
LT-avg
St. Dev
2011 average
2012 average
2013 average
2014 average
2015 average
2016 average

Employment,
Personal
Production and
Sales, Orders,
Unemployment Consumption
Income
and Inventories
and Hours
and Housing
-0.34
0.11
-0.27
-0.22
0.42
0.08
-0.08
0.14
0.28
0.21
-0.07
0.11
0.02
0.27
-0.09
-0.01
0.06
0.14
-0.15
0.07
0.11
0.26
-0.11
0.05
0.23
0.10
-0.11
0.28
-0.13
0.08
-0.08
-0.21
0.15
0.18
-0.14
0.01
0.08
0.22
-0.08
0.07
0.48
0.28
-0.06
0.07
-0.08
0.23
-0.11
0.09
-0.16
0.11
-0.09
-0.04
-0.23
0.12
-0.22
-0.09
-0.10
-0.04
-0.10
0.05
0.02
0.09
-0.06
0.11
-0.15
0.07
-0.05
-0.19
-0.13
0.12
-0.08
0.05
0.40
0.13
-0.06
0.03
-0.05
-0.07
-0.08
-0.05
-0.19
-0.04
-0.07
0.17
-0.11
0.08
-0.11
-0.03
-0.27
0.05
-0.06
-0.02
-0.31
0.07
-0.08
0.02

-0.01
0.43
0.03
-0.00
-0.02
0.11
-0.11
-0.39

-0.00
0.39
0.13
0.09
0.10
0.18
0.06
-0.08

-0.00
0.14
-0.29
-0.21
-0.15
-0.11
-0.09
-0.07

-0.00
0.22
0.03
-0.00
0.02
0.04
0.00
-0.03

CFNAI

CFNAI
MA3

-0.71
0.56
0.53
0.19
0.11
0.30
0.51
-0.33
0.19
0.30
0.77
0.13
-0.18
-0.43
-0.19
0.16
-0.32
-0.04
0.50
-0.24
-0.13
-0.17
-0.30
-0.30

-0.07
-0.07
0.13
0.43
0.28
0.20
0.31
0.16
0.12
0.05
0.42
0.40
0.24
-0.16
-0.26
-0.15
-0.12
-0.07
0.05
0.07
0.04
-0.18
-0.20
-0.25

DIFFUSION
-0.02
-0.03
0.20
0.38
0.33
0.27
0.33
0.19
0.12
0.11
0.36
0.32
0.20
-0.09
-0.18
-0.11
-0.05
-0.03
0.09
0.02
-0.05
-0.25
-0.20

CFNAI
less MA3
-0.64
0.63
0.40
-0.24
-0.16
0.10
0.20
-0.49
0.07
0.25
0.35
-0.27
-0.42
-0.27
0.08
0.31
-0.20
0.02
0.46
-0.32
-0.17
0.01
-0.10
-0.04

-0.01
0.99
-0.10
-0.12
-0.05
0.21
-0.14
-0.57

Difference: CFNAI less MA3

< -0.7
Increasing likelihood that a recession has begun
> -0.7
Increasing likelihood that a recession has ended
>+0.2
Significant likelihood that a recession has ended
>+0.7
Increasing likelihood that a period of sustained increasing inflation has begun
>+1.0
Substancial likelihood that a period of sustained increasing inflation has begun

Chicago Fed National Activity Index, by Categories, and CFNAI-MA3

Notes:
On average for 2016, the projection of the overall indicator was revised down to -0.57 from -0.32 projected last month.
The reduction is driven by production-related indicators, while indicators related to employment, although showing a
slowdown, would remain at acceptable levels.
For purposes of the projection for 2016 is taken as the most probable scenario of evolution of interest rates in the US, an
equivalent growth and driven by the scheduled increase of 100 basis points in the federal funds rate during 2016.
The increased cost of financing is the main driver of a slowdown in the growth rates of the new housing construction and
durable goods consumption and projected investments will remain in mining (including O&G) in heavily depressed
levels.
Also see:
Cfnai Background
U.S. Federal Open Market Committee - Federal Funds Rate