Tobin's Q

EQUITIES AND TOBINS Q
Edited by the Research Team of
The bottom line of monetary policy is its effect on capital investment, in business plant and equipment, residences, inventories, and consumer durable
goods. The effect is not well represented by the market interest rates usually cited, or by quantities of money or credit. Our approach to monetary economics
and macroeconomics led us naturally to a different measure, closer to investment decisions. This has become known as Tobins q. James Tobin
With
John Mihaljevic, CFA

Managing Editor,
The Manual of Ideas

john@manualofideas.com
About This Report

Equities and Tobins Q, 1900-2009
Evaluating the Market Outlook in
the Context of a Century of History
Report Date: September 21, 2009
Publishing Frequency: Quarterly
Website: www.manualofideas.com/q
Inside This Report

Quarterly Update . p. 1
Putting Q in Historical Context . p. 4
Q in Investment Management .. p. 6
Intangibles and Tobins Q p. 7
Q Estimates For 1,000 Largest
Public Companies p. 9
Economic Rationale p. 30
Q and Warren Buffett p. 33
Calculating Tobins Q p. 34
Selected Charts and Data p. 36
Additional Resources p. 44
About The Author

John Mihaljevic, CFA, served as James
Tobins research assistant from 1996-98 and
worked with Professor Tobin to refine the Q
estimation method. Mr. Mihaljevic was also
involved in research projects at the Cowles
Foundation, including researching James
Tobins Money, Credit and Capital.
Mr. Mihaljevic graduated summa cum laude
from Yale, having earned distinction in the
study of economics. In addition to working for
and studying under Mr. Tobin, Mr. Mihaljevic
studied under Yale Chief Investment Officer
David Swensen and Sterling Professor of
Economics William Nordhaus.
Mr. Mihaljevic has worked as an investment
banker, equity analyst and investment
manager. He currently serves as managing
member of Mihaljevic Capital Management
and managing editor of The Manual of Ideas.
Dear Subscriber,
Tobins Q increased from 0.61 at the end of the first quarter to 0.73 at
the end of the second quarter, based on data provided by the Federal
Reserve in a Z.1 (flow of funds) release on September 17th. The sequential
increase in Q of 20% was driven by a 24% increase in the numerator (market
value), partially offset by a 3% rise in the denominator (replacement cost).
See page 34 for an explanation of our Q estimation method.
We estimate that Tobins Q has increased another 18% since June 30th,
to 0.86 as of the market close on September 18th, based on second-quarter
figures contained in the Feds Z.1 release, adjusted to reflect the 17% return
of the S&P 500 Index since the end of the second quarter. As our current
estimate of Q is based partly on data expected to be updated by the Federal
Reserve in the next Z.1 release on December 10th, we base the market
outlook in this report both on the second-quarter estimate of Q as well as on
our admittedly imprecise estimate of the Q ratio as of September 18th.
Tobins Q Ratio, December 31, 2007 to September 18, 2009

1.00
0.89
0.86
0.90
0.80
0.73
0.70
0.70
0.58
0.59
1Q08
2Q08
0.61
0.55
0.60
0.50
4Q07
3Q08
4Q08
1Q09
2Q09
9/18/09
Source: The Federal Reserve, The Manual of Ideas.
We conclude that Q currently sends a neutral one-year market signal

and bearish signals over three, five and ten years. The medium- to longerterm outlook has deteriorated significantly as a result of the relentless rise in
the S&P 500 Index since the end of the second quarter. If the S&P 500 fell
back from 1,068 to 919, the index level on June 30th, the medium- to longterm outlook would move from bearish to neutral.
We derive our neutral near-term and bearish longer-term outlook
primarily from putting recent increases in Q in historical context,
drawing on proprietary data from 1900-2009. Of the five historical instances
when Q increased to at least 0.73, i.e., the level reached on June 30th, Q was
higher one year later in three instances. Four out of five times, it was higher
three years after the initial increase. Five years and ten years after the initial
increase, Q was higher in only one of five instances and unchanged in
another instance. Meanwhile, of the eleven instances since 1900 when the Q
EQUITIES AND TOBINS Q is published quarterly by BeyondProxy LLC, P.O. Box 1375, New York, NY 10150. Website: www.manualofideas.com. Email: support@manualofideas.com. Please
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may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated in this report. John Mihaljevic, Chairman of
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September 21, 2009
ratio increased to at least 0.86, i.e., the level reached on September 18th, Q
was higher one year later in five instances and unchanged in one instance.
Only three out of eleven times, Q was higher three years after the initial
increase (it was lower in seven instances). And now for the rather remarkable
long-term data point, which we highlight as a separate bullet point:
Ten years after each initial increase in Q to at least 0.86 in any year
since 1900, the Q ratio was lower in ten out of ten instances (one more
historical data point remains to be determined, as in one instance the increase
in Q to 0.86 or above occurred from 2002-03, i.e., less than ten years ago).
Given the consistently bearish historical experience when measured over
ten-year time horizons, investment managers deciding to buy equities today
at an estimated Q of 0.86 are implicitly arguing that this time will be
different. However, as the near-term market outlook based on Tobins Q is
much less clearer than the long-term outlook, managers may face significant
short-term career risk by choosing to aggressively limit equity exposure.
When Tobins Q Rises to 0.86+, Is It Higher or Lower After One Year,

Three Years, Five Years and Ten Years?
(percentage of instances when subsequent Q was higher;
based on data from 1900-2009)
45%
27%
9%
One Year
Later
Three Years
Later
Five Years
Later
0%
Ten Years
Later
Source: The Manual of Ideas analysis.
There is one important caveat regarding the bearish mid- to long-term

outlook for U.S. equities: Erosion of Tobins Q may not necessarily
translate into declining equity prices if replacement cost increases at an
accelerating pace, perhaps due to inflation. The replacement cost of
structures, equipment, software, and inventories represents the denominator
of the Q ratio. Replacement cost has historically increased at a single digit
annual pace, though increases have been higher during inflationary periods.
For Tobins Q to remain unchanged while replacement cost goes up, market
value must increase at the same pace as replacement cost. Put differently, if
replacement cost rises sharply, Tobins Q could decline even as market value
remains constant or increases. If the Feds quantitative easing and other
liquidity-boosting measures, coupled with the governments record fiscal
stimulus, produce an inflationary environment, equity prices could rise.
Replacement cost rose 3% sequentially in the second quarter, reversing
a 1% decline in Q1, suggesting that deflation is not a material concern.
While some economists and market observers have argued that the implosion
of the credit bubble could have deflationary consequences, we stated in our
last quarterly update that it was unlikely that replacement cost would decline
for the full year 2009. Q2 data released by the Federal Reserve supports this
view. Replacement cost is up 3% year-to-date through June 30th.
Publisher: BeyondProxy LLC
Edited by the Research Team of The Manual of Ideas
www.manualofideas.com/q
September 21, 2009
The mere absence of deflation in light of the unprecedented implosion in

credit and the destruction in household net worth suggests that inflation may
indeed become a serious threat as the economy recovers. As a result, the
possibility that the direction of equity prices diverges from the direction of
Tobins Q over a multi-year period is non-negligible. What should
investment managers do in this context? We believe that investors should
seek exposure to equities whose market prices are likely to outperform
future increases in replacement cost, i.e., stocks that do well in
inflationary environments. These stocks include companies with pricing
power due to a wide competitive moat as well as companies engaged in
mining for natural resources and oil and gas exploration.
Tobins Q Ratio, 1900 September 18, 2009

2.0
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
This chart consists of two data sets: 1900-1944: We use a modified Blanchard, Rhee, Summers series.
We adjust the data to reflect the series upward bias as compared to the Tobin (new) methodology
developed by James Tobin and John Mihaljevic. 1945-2009: We use the Tobin (new) series. We believe
this combined set of data from 1900-2009 provides the most accurate historical rendering of the Q ratio.
Source: The Federal Reserve; Blanchard, Rhee, and Summers; The Manual of Ideas.
Finally, we take this opportunity to lament the lack of reliability of data

provided by the Federal Reserve in the quarterly Z.1 statistical release.
Those who rely on data contained in the Z.1 release may have noticed that
most if not all of the prior-period data used to calculate Tobins Q is revised
by the Fed each quarter. No explanation is provided for these revisions,
making it extremely difficult to know the drivers behind the changes. We
view this lack of transparency as a symptom of the Feds trust us attitude
(some may remember the discontinuance of M3 data at a critical time).
Sincerely,
September 21, 2009
Putting Todays Q Ratio in Historical Context

The following table analyzes historical instances in which Tobins Q initially
increased to 0.73 or above, i.e., the level reached on June 30th. The analysis is based on
annual data from 1900-2009. Of the five historical instances when this occurred, Q was
higher one year later in three instances. Four out of five times, it was higher three years
after the initial increase. Five years and ten years after the initial increase, Q was higher in
only one of five instances and unchanged in another instance.
Analysis of Instances When Q Increased to 0.73 or Above, 1900-2009 1

19011902
19271928
19331934
19601961
19901991
20082009
YTD
What Happened?
Q increased from 0.68 in 1901 to 1.04 in 1902
Q fell to 0.83 in 1903
Q rebounded to 0.91 in 1904 and 1.08 in 1905 but
fell back to 1.00 in 1906
Q rose to 1.06 in 1929
It fell in subsequent years, to 0.93 in 1930, 0.59 in
1931 and 0.30 in 1932
Q rose further to 0.98 in 1935
It was mixed in subsequent years, rising to 1.08 in
1936, falling back to 0.97 in 1937 and 0.75 in 1938
Q declined slightly to 0.75 in 1962
Q rose to 0.80 in 1963, 0.90 in 1964 and 0.97 in
1965 before falling back to 0.80 in 1966
Q increased again to 0.96 in 1992
It embarked on recorded increased in subsequent
years, to 1.03 in 1993, topping out at 1.88 in 1999
Q increased from 0.55 at yearend 2008 to 0.61 as
of March 31, 2009 and 0.73 as of June 30, 2009
Was Q Higher or Lower In Years

Following Rise to 0.72 or Higher?
One year later: Q was lower
Three years later: Q was higher
Five years later: Q was lower
Ten years later: Q was lower
One year later: Q was higher
Three years later: Q was lower
Five years later: Q was the same
Ten years later: Q was the same
Five years later: Q was higher
Ten years later: Q was higher
One year later: TBD
Three years later: TBD
Five years later: TBD
Ten years later: TBD
The table on the following page analyzes historical instances in which Tobins Q
initially increased to 0.86 or above, i.e., the level reached on September 18th. Of the
eleven instances when this occurred, Q was higher one year later in five instances and
unchanged in one instance. Only three out of eleven times, Q was higher three years after
the initial increase (it was lower in seven instances). Q was higher in only one instance five
years after the initial increase (it was lower in ten instances). Finally, ten years after each
initial increase in Q to at least 0.86 in any year since 1900, the Q ratio was lower in ten out
of ten instances (one more historical data point remains to be determined, as in one instance
the increase in Q to 0.86 or above occurred from 2002-03, i.e., less than ten years ago).
Based on adjusted Q ratio estimates from 1900-2009.

September 21, 2009
Analysis of Instances When Q Increased to 0.86 or Above, 1900-2009 1

19011902
19031904
19081909
19281929
19341935
19381939
19631964
19661967
19711972
19911992
20022003
20082009
YTD
What Happened?
Q rebounded to 0.91 in 1904 and 1.08 in 1905 but
fell back to 1.00 in 1906
Q rose to 1.08 in 1905
Q dropped to 1.00 in 1906 and 0.76 in 1907 but
increased slightly to 0.78 in 1908
Q decreased slightly to 0.87 in 1910
Q dropped to 0.82 in 1911 and remained relatively
flat at 0.83 in 1912 and 0.82 in 1913
Q decreased to 0.93 in 1930
It plummeted to 0.59 in 1931 and 0.30 in 1932
before rebounding to 0.48 in 1933
Q rose further to 1.08 in 1936
It decreased to 0.97 in 1937 and 0.75 in 1938, but
rebounded to 0.91 in 1939
It fell further to 0.57 in 1941 and 0.43 in 1942, but
increased to 0.54 in 1943
Q increased further to 0.97 in 1965
Q fell to 0.80 in 1966 but rose to 0.96 in 1967 and
1.05 in 1968
Q increased further to 1.05 in 1968
Q decreased to 0.82 in 1969 and 0.75 in 1970,
rebounding to 0.80 in 1971
Q plummeted to 0.61 in 1973
Q crashed to 0.29 in 1974 and then proceeded to
rebound to 0.49 in 1975 and 0.53 in 1976
Q increased again to 1.03 in 1993
It fell back to 0.96 in 1994 before proceeding to
1.14 in 1995 and 1.26 in 1996
Q remained flat at 1.07 in 2004
It decreased to 0.91 in 2005 and 2006, then to 0.89
in 2005
Q increased from 0.55 at yearend 2008 to 0.61 as
of March 31, 2009 and 0.73 as of June 30, 2009
Was Q Higher or Lower In Years

Following Rise to 0.72 or Higher?
Five years later: Q was higher
One year later: Q was the same
Ten years later: Q was TBD
One year later: TBD
Three years later: TBD
Five years later: TBD
Ten years later: TBD
Based on adjusted Q ratio estimates from 1900-2009.

September 21, 2009
INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT
The Q Ratio as an Input into Investment Decision-Making Processes
Several studies have shown that stock market investments at times when the Q ratio was less
than parity have produced above-average long-term returns. For example, Matthew Harney
and Edward Tower, authors of Rational Pessimism: Predicting Equity Returns using Tobins q
and Price/Earnings Ratios, summarize their conclusion as follows: We discover that q beats all
variants of the PE ratio for predicting real rates of return over alternative horizons. Access the
Harney and Tower paper as follows: http://www.econ.duke.edu/Papers/Abstracts02/abstract.02.29.html
The Manual of Ideas has analyzed three series of historical data on Tobins Q in order to draw
conclusions on specific Q values that might be used as buy or sell signals for U.S. equities.
The data series include James Tobins old and new methodologies and data provided
by Olivier Blanchard, Chanyong Rhee and Larry Summers in 1992.
The Tobin (new) methodology was developed jointly by James Tobin and John Mihaljevic
in 1996-97. The Tobin (new) dataset accompanies this report and is available in Excel.
Blanchard, Rhee and Summers (BRS) calculated the Q ratio going back to 1900. Their
calculation showed Q at 1.26 in 1929, immediately prior to the Great Depression. Due to
their series upward bias as compared to the Tobin (new) methodology, we adjust the BRS
estimate of Q downward to 1.06 for 1929. Similarly, we adjust their low estimate of Q of
0.36 in 1932 down to 0.30.
Based on the adjusted BRS series and the Tobin (new) series, we conclude that a successful
market-timing strategy over the past century would have been to buy U.S. equities when the
Q ratio hit 0.40 or below, and to sell U.S. equities when then Q ratio hit 1.00. 1
Tobins Q Ratio Historical Buy and Sell Signals, 1900 September 18, 2009
2.0
Sell
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
Sell Sell
Sell
Sell
Sell
1.0
0.8
0.6
Buy
0.4
0.2
Buy
Buy
1920
1930
Buy
Buy
Buy
0.0
1900
1910
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
Source: The Federal Reserve; Blanchard, Rhee, and Summers; The Manual of Ideas.
1
Empirical evidence suggests that a parity Q ratio (Q=1) should have been read as a sell signal. Without the
benefit of historical experience, one might have assumed that Q=1 merely signaled fair value. However, if
one adopts a bargain hunter mentality, it is quite easy to agree that it makes little sense to buy assets at
market prices when such prices exceed replacement cost, even if the premium is very small. Entrepreneurship
drives the American capitalist system, and the empirical parity Q sell signal suggests that, investment costs
being equal, Americans have preferred to start a new business rather than invest in an existing one.
September 21, 2009
CALCULATING TOBINS Q
Adjusting Q To Reflect Increasing Importance of Intangible Assets (Beta)
This quarter, we introduce a new methodology of normalizing historical Tobins Q to
reflect the fact that intangible assets have increased as a proportion of total corporate assets
over time. This methodology is still in beta, as we intend to improve both the quality of the data
inputs as well as the adjustment mechanism itself in future quarters. Nonetheless, we hope you
will find some value in this initial attempt at normalizing Q for intangibles.
A criticism of the Tobins Q approach to valuing equities has been that the Q ratio fails to
incorporate intangible assets, which have played an increasingly important role in the U.S.
economy over time. Critics argue that by ignoring intangibles, Tobins Q understates true
replacement cost. This results in estimates of Q that are higher than true Q, making some assets
appear overvalued when they are fairly valued or even undervalued.
There is no dispute that intangibles play a greater role in our economy today than a decade
or a century ago. As the following chart shows, intangible net worth as a percentage of total book
value of companies in the S&P 500 Index has increased from 2% in 1975 to 43% in 2005. We find
it quite remarkable that intangibles accounted for only 2% of book value as late as 1975.
S&P 500 Intangible Book Value as % of Total Book Value

43.2%
19.2%
1.9%
1975
4.5%
1985
1995
2005
Source: Ocean Tomo, Ned Davis Research.
The following chart compares Tobins Q as calculated elsewhere in this report to Tobins Q
adjusted for intangible assets. The two time series are identical from 1900 through 1945, as we
assume that intangibles were negligible until 1945. We further assume that intangible net worth as
a percentage of book value started climbing from zero in 1945 to 1.9% in 1975, etc.
Tobins Q versus Tobins Q Adjusted for Intangible Assets, 1900-2009

2.00
Tobin's Q
Tobin's Q (including intangibles)
1.80
1.60
1.40
1.20
1.00
0.80
0.60
0.40
0.20
0.00
1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
September 21, 2009
The following chart is identical to the preceding chart, except that we make the differences
between the two time series more noticeable by showing data since 1975 only. As the chart
shows, Tobins Q adjusted for intangible assets has been materially lower than traditional Q over
the past two decades.
Tobins Q versus Tobins Q Adjusted for Intangible Assets, 1975-2009

2.00
Tobin's Q
1.80
1.60
1.40
1.20
1.00
0.80
0.60
0.40
0.20
0.00
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
The following chart shows the same comparison on a quarterly basis since the fourth
quarter of 2007, including the most recent data point as of September 18th, 2009. Once again, the
difference between the two time series is rather striking. Obviously, the choice of time series will
have a pronounced impact on conclusions regarding the outlook for equities. Since we regard our
analysis in this regard as a work in progress, we are not yet inclined to make predictions based
on Tobins Q adjusted for intangible assets.
Tobins Q versus Tobins Q Adjusted for Intangible Assets, 4Q07 9/18/09

0.89
0.90
0.86
0.80
0.70
0.70
0.60
0.58
0.59
0.61
0.50
0.55
0.50
0.40
0.73
0.33
0.34
0.49
0.40
0.30
0.41
0.31
0.35
0.20
0.10
0.00
4Q07
1Q08
2Q08
Tobin's Q
3Q08
4Q08
1Q09
2Q09
9/18/09
September 21, 2009
PUBLIC COMPANIES
Estimating Tobins Q for 1,000 Largest Public Companies
In this section, we present Tobins Q estimates for the 1,000 largest U.S.-listed public
companies (ranked by market value). The table shown on the following pages includes three
estimates of Q for each company: a current estimate, last quarters estimate, and an estimate of
Tobins Q one year ago. The table is sorted by economic sector and industry classification in order
to allow for easy comparison of companies within particular industries.
The Tobins Q estimates presented in the following table are based on an estimation method
developed by finance professors Kee H. Chung and Stephen W. Pruitt in a 1994 paper
entitled, A Simple Approximation of Tobins q. Chung and Pruitt presented a formula that can be
calculated using publicly available and easily verifiable company-specific accounting and market
pricing data. Chung and Pruitt show that at least 96.6% of the variability of Tobins q, as
calculated more elaborately by Lindenberg and Ross (1981), is explained by the approximate Q
presented herein.
Chung and Pruitt define approximate Q as follows:
where
MVE equals the market value of the common equity of a firm;
PS equals the liquidating value of the firms preferred stock;
DEBT equals current liabilities minus current assets, plus book value of long-term debt;
TA equals the book value of the total assets of the firm.
Company-specific Tobins Q ratios vary significantly from industry to industry and, to a
lesser degree, within industries, as evidenced in the table below. The variability across industries
is primarily due to the fact that companies in some industries employ relatively little capital and
therefore generate unusually high returns on capital. Those types of companies typically trade at
higher Q ratios than companies in capital-intensive, cyclical industries.
The Q estimation method used herein has one major drawbackit is not good at dealing
with truly exceptional businesses, i.e., companies that have a large off-balance sheet intangible
source of sustainable business value. Companies that fall into this category may include the likes
of Coca-Cola, Microsoft and Walt Disney. That said, the Q ratios shown on the following pages
can also serve as a valuable reality check to investors: If a company has a Q ratio meaningfully
in excess of parity, the market may be pricing in sustainable long-term outperformance. In such
cases, investors may want to verify their assumptions about the true sustainability of a companys
high returns on capital.
September 21, 2009
Tobin's Q
to Reach
Price
Sector
Basic
Materials
Industry
Chemical
Manufacturing
Chemicals
Plastics and Rubbers
Containters &
Packaging
Fabricated Plastic
& Rubber
Forestry & Wood
Products
Gold & Silver
Last
Last
($)
Low
High
($bn)
($bn)
Book
Recent
Quarter
Year
Agrium (AGU)
Air Products & Chem (APD)
Airgas (ARG)
Akzo Nobel (AKZOY)
BASF (BASFY)
Braskem SA (BAK)
Celanese (CE)
CF Industries (CF)
E.I. du Pont de Nemo (DD)
FMC Corp. (FMC)
Lubrizol Corp. (LZ)
Monsanto Company (MON)
Mosaic Company (MOS)
PPG Industries (PPG)
Praxair (PX)
Sasol Limited (ADR) (SSL)
Sigma-Aldrich Corp. (SIAL)
Sociedad Quimica y M (SQM)
Syngenta AG (ADR) (SYT)
Terra Industries (TRA)
53.55
80.2
49.84
62.53
54.65
12.14
26.95
90.19
33.74
57.99
71.63
79.92
54.25
59.65
81.05
40.45
53.25
40.15
50.19
36.27
-59%
-48%
-47%
-56%
-55%
-70%
-79%
-58%
-52%
-51%
-67%
-21%
-60%
-53%
-42%
-53%
-41%
-68%
-46%
-69%
64%
10%
20%
0%
6%
3%
56%
40%
43%
19%
0%
52%
81%
17%
9%
13%
7%
1%
3%
27%
8
17
4
16
53
3
4
4
30
4
5
44
24
10
25
27
6
11
23
4
10
21
6
20
65
7
6
3
38
5
6
45
23
13
30
26
7
11
26
3
1.9x
3.4x
2.5x
3.8x
1.9x
1.1x
>9.9x
2.7x
4.2x
4.0x
2.8x
4.1x
2.8x
3.1x
5.4x
2.4x
4.2x
7.3x
3.3x
3.0x
.8
1.6
1.2
.8
.8
.6
.8
1.5
.9
1.3
1.1
2.3
1.7
.7
2.1
1.3
2.3
4.1
1.2
1.4
.5
1.4
1.1
.5
.6
.6
.7
1.2
.7
1.1
.8
2.1
1.4
.6
2.0
.8
2.3
4.1
1.5
.9
.9
1.3
1.3
.7
.8
.5
.7
1.5
1.0
1.2
.6
3.0
2.5
.7
1.8
1.6
2.3
3.3
1.4
1.0
Albemarle (ALB)
Dow Chemical Company (DOW)
Eastman Chemical (EMN)
Koninklijke DSM N.V. (RDSMY)
Solvay S.A. (ADR) (SVYSY)
34.52
26.75
54.51
10.4
114.8
-55%
-78%
-67%
-53%
-55%
5%
49%
20%
25%
21%
3
31
4
7
10
4
56
5
9
12
2.8x
1.9x
2.5x
1.0x
1.5x
1.3
.7
.9
.5
.6
.9
.5
.7
.4
.4
1.0
.6
.8
.5
.6
Amcor Limited (AMCRY)

Avery Dennison Corp. (AVY)
Ball Corp. (BLL)
Bunzl (BZLFY)
Crown Holdings (CCK)
MeadWestvaco Corp. (MWV)
Owens-Illinois (OI)
Pactiv Corp. (PTV)
Rexam PLC (ADR) (REXMY)
19.7
35.48
50.93
50.64
26.39
22.89
37.32
26.56
22
-51%
-52%
-46%
-31%
-49%
-67%
-74%
-60%
-31%
5%
55%
2%
30%
3%
20%
5%
145%
85%
4
4
5
3
4
4
6
4
4
5
6
7
5
7
6
9
5
8
1.5x
3.3x
3.7x
3.7x
n/m
1.3x
4.3x
4.1x
1.3x
.6
1.1
1.0
1.1
.9
.6
1.0
1.1
.8
.5
.8
.9
.8
1.0
.5
.9
1.0
.7
.6
.9
.9
1.5
.9
.6
.7
1.1
.7
Ashland (ASH)
43.65
-88%
3%
.9x
.4
.3
.0
Rayonier (RYN)
Weyerhaeuser Company (WY)
Agnico-Eagle Mines (AEM)
AngloGold Ashanti (AU)
Barrick Gold (ABX)
Compania de Minas (BVN)
Eldorado Gold Corp. (EGO)
Freeport-McMoRan Cop (FCX)
Gold Fields Limited (GFI)
Goldcorp (USA) (GG)
Harmony Gold Mining (HMY)
IAMGOLD Corp. (USA) (IAG)
Kinross Gold Corp. ( (KGC)
Lihir Gold Limited ( (LIHR)
42.74
39.65
68.75
43.65
37.05
34.05
11.7
70.14
14.16
41.16
11.37
14.79
22.18
26.27
-48%
-53%
-70%
-69%
-53%
-74%
-80%
-78%
-67%
-66%
-52%
-85%
-69%
-69%
16%
65%
5%
5%
14%
3%
5%
10%
6%
5%
17%
7%
7%
18%
3
8
11
16
32
9
4
29
10
30
5
5
15
7
4
13
11
17
35
8
4
38
11
30
5
5
16
6
3.3x
2.0x
4.0x
5.0x
2.0x
5.0x
5.1x
8.1x
1.9x
2.0x
1.6x
2.3x
2.8x
2.1x
1.8
.8
2.9
1.7
1.4
3.5
4.2
1.5
1.3
1.5
1.1
1.8
1.9
1.8
1.7
.6
2.3
1.9
1.3
2.5
3.3
1.2
1.2
1.3
1.0
1.0
1.6
1.5
2.0
.8
2.6
1.1
1.4
2.5
3.0
.7
.9
1.2
.9
.7
1.4
1.5
Company (Ticker)
52-Week
MV
EV
Price/
Most
10
September 21, 2009
Tobin's Q
to Reach
Price
Sector
Industry
Iron & Steel
Metal Mining
Misc. Fabricated
Products
Non-Metallic
Mining
Paper & Paper
Products
Capital
Goods
Aerospace and
Defense
Last
Last
($)
Low
High
($bn)
($bn)
Book
Recent
Quarter
Year
44.96
73.91
12.51
10.89
40.5
8.49
13.35
8.82
41.45
16.18
49.7
106.03
17.85
27.44
49.03
14.06
6.12
29.96
16.92
66.96
57.01
30.04
33.75
1.75
11.79
179.05
29.8
15.73
27.1
22.06
-53%
-70%
-80%
-70%
-62%
-66%
-69%
-38%
-57%
-84%
-49%
-62%
-71%
-83%
-66%
-65%
-67%
-76%
-63%
-63%
-63%
-61%
-65%
-77%
-87%
-67%
-69%
-80%
-90%
-60%
11%
3%
7%
10%
67%
57%
27%
32%
12%
53%
7%
2%
28%
3%
116%
96%
105%
9%
35%
4%
4%
3%
139%
5%
10%
85%
1%
3%
36%
16%
22
6
4
8
61
4
19
5
11
7
16
33
4
6
7
14
4
16
45
186
159
12
4
14
4
81
25
11
16
115
24
5
4
8
84
6
26
14
15
12
17
32
6
7
8
23
4
17
56
191
12
5
14
5
120
26
12
26
133
2.4x
8.0x
3.0x
1.2x
1.1x
1.3x
2.0x
1.0x
1.6x
2.3x
2.1x
2.1x
2.0x
1.1x
1.4x
1.1x
1.3x
2.5x
1.8x
4.7x
n/m
3.0x
2.0x
3.0x
>9.9x
4.8x
7.4x
2.2x
1.5x
2.9x
1.3
6.3
2.7
.9
.6
.6
.8
.5
.6
1.0
1.2
1.3
1.0
.4
.4
.6
1.2
1.4
1.0
2.4
n/a
1.8
1.1
1.6
6.1
1.3
4.7
.9
.9
1.4
1.2
5.6
1.8
.7
.5
.5
.6
.5
.6
.6
1.0
1.1
.9
.3
.3
.4
.8
1.1
.9
2.1
n/a
1.4
.8
1.0
3.0
1.0
3.4
.6
.6
1.3
1.1
3.5
1.7
.6
.5
.6
1.1
.5
.4
.9
.6
2.1
.7
.2
.6
.6
1.7
1.0
1.1
2.6
n/a
1.5
1.2
.7
2.4
1.2
2.5
.4
.9
1.3
Allegheny Tech (ATI)

Companhia Siderurgic (SID)
Parker-Hannifin Corp (PH)
Sealed Air Corp. (SEE)
SKF AB (ADR) (SKFRY)
34.86
30.17
55.18
20.58
16.29
-57%
-74%
-50%
-50%
-60%
30%
1%
10%
16%
1%
3
23
9
3
7
4
25
11
5
9
1.6x
>9.9x
2.1x
1.6x
3.0x
.7
6.0
1.0
.8
.9
.7
5.1
.8
.8
.6
.5
3.8
.9
.9
.8
Potash Corp. (POT)
97.14
-51%
90%
29
32
5.2x
2.8
2.8
3.6
Aracruz Celulose SA (ARA)

International Paper (IP)
Kimberly-Clark (KMB)
Stora Enso OYJ (ADR) (SEOAY)
UPM-Kymmene Corp. (A (UPMKY)
Votorantim Celulose (VCP)
21.75
23.14
57.88
7.59
13.1
15.8
-76%
-83%
-26%
-55%
-57%
-75%
138%
28%
15%
56%
41%
77%
3
10
24
6
7
7
7
19
29
11
13
9
3.9x
2.1x
5.3x
.8x
.7x
4.1x
1.2
.6
1.6
.5
.5
1.7
.8
.6
1.5
.4
.4
.5
.9
.5
1.6
.5
.6
.5
Boeing (BA)
Embraer - Empr Bras (ERJ)
FLIR Systems (FLIR)
General Dynamics (GD)
Goodrich Corp. (GR)
Honeywell Internatio (HON)
L-3 Communications H (LLL)
Lockheed Martin (LMT)
53.02
23.16
27.97
64.61
55.49
40.17
82.19
80.08
-45%
-60%
-33%
-45%
-55%
-43%
-31%
-28%
15%
53%
40%
34%
4%
17%
28%
47%
39
4
4
25
7
30
10
31
43
5
4
27
8
36
13
32
>9.9x
1.9x
4.1x
2.3x
2.6x
3.6x
1.6x
>9.9x
.8
.4
2.7
.9
.8
1.0
.8
1.0
.7
.3
2.1
.8
.7
.8
.7
1.0
.9
.5
4.2
1.1
.6
.9
1.0
1.6
Company (Ticker)
Newmont Mining Corp. (NEM)
Randgold Resources (GOLD)
Silver Wheaton Corp. (SLW)
Yamana Gold (USA) (AUY)
ArcelorMittal (MT)
Gerdau Ameristeel Co (GNA)
Gerdau SA (ADR) (GGB)
Kobe Steel, Ltd. (AD (KBSTY)
Kubota Corp. (ADR) (KUB)
Mechel OAO (ADR) (MTL)
Nucor Corp. (NUE)
POSCO (PKX)
Steel Dynamics (STLD)
Ternium S.A. (ADR) (TX)
United States Steel (X)
Alcoa (AA)
Alumina Limited (AWC)
Aluminum Corp. China (ACH)
Anglo American (AAUKY)
BHP Billiton Limited (BHP)
BHP Billiton plc (BBL)
Cameco (CCJ)
Cliffs Natural Resou (CLF)
Grupo Mexico (GMBXF)
Ivanhoe Mines Ltd. ( (IVN)
Rio Tinto plc (ADR) (RTP)
Southern Copper Corp (PCU)
Sterlite Industries (SLT)
Teck Cominco Limited (TCK)
Vale (VALE)
52-Week
MV
EV
Price/
Most
11
September 21, 2009
Tobin's Q
to Reach
Price
Sector
Industry
Construction Machinery
Construction
Materials
Construction
Services
Construction
Supplies
Misc. Capital
Goods
Conglomerates
Conglomerates
Last
Last
($)
Low
High
($bn)
($bn)
Book
Recent
Quarter
Year
Northrop Grumman (NOC)

Rockwell Collins (COL)
Rolls-Royce (RYCEY)
Caterpillar (CAT)
CNH Global N.V. (ADR (CNH)
Deere & Company (DE)
Fastenal Company (FAST)
Joy Global (JOYG)
Komatsu Ltd. (ADR) (KMTUY)
51.82
51.1
40.8
53.42
17.38
45.07
38.98
47.45
78.4
-35%
-46%
-58%
-59%
-67%
-46%
-34%
-70%
-58%
28%
7%
1%
39%
81%
45%
45%
18%
1%
16
8
15
33
4
19
6
5
19
19
8
14
62
13
40
6
5
26
1.4x
4.6x
2.5x
4.6x
.6x
2.6x
4.9x
5.5x
2.2x
.7
1.7
.5
.8
.2
.9
3.7
1.6
.9
.6
1.5
.5
.6
.2
.8
3.2
1.2
.7
.7
1.8
.5
.9
.2
.8
5.2
1.6
.6
Cemex (CX)
Lafarge S.A. (ADR) (LFRGY)
Martin Marietta Mate (MLM)
Vulcan Materials Com (VMC)
14.2
23.85
100.62
57.42
-73%
-61%
-42%
-40%
44%
29%
24%
75%
12
17
4
7
11
30
6
10
.9x
1.1x
3.6x
1.8x
.4
.6
1.6
1.1
.6
.5
1.2
.9
.7
.7
1.8
1.2
CRH PLC (ADR) (CRH)

D.R. Horton (DHI)
Fluor (FLR)
Foster Wheeler (FWLT)
Jacobs Engineering G (JEC)
KBR (KBR)
NVR (NVR)
Pulte Homes (PHM)
Quanta Services (PWR)
Sun Hung Kai Propert (SUHJY)
Technip (TKPPY)
Toll Brothers (TOL)
URS Corp. (URS)
29.86
13.25
56.05
34.26
48.53
23.07
670.43
12.71
23.96
14.85
67.84
22.2
43.94
-42%
-71%
-49%
-63%
-46%
-58%
-54%
-49%
-56%
-59%
-69%
-39%
-55%
1%
17%
19%
40%
35%
7%
4%
83%
31%
5%
1%
26%
21%
21
4
10
4
6
4
4
3
5
38
7
4
4
29
6
8
4
5
3
4
5
4
43
5
4
4
1.5x
1.7x
3.4x
6.8x
2.3x
1.7x
2.5x
1.5x
1.7x
1.4x
2.2x
1.4x
1.0x
.8
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.0
.4
1.8
1.0
1.1
.9
.7
1.0
.5
.6
.9
1.1
1.0
.9
.3
1.4
.8
1.1
.7
.6
.8
.6
.5
.9
1.2
1.3
1.4
.2
1.5
.8
1.2
.7
.6
.9
.5
Plum Creek Timber Co (PCL)

Precision Castparts (PCP)
Tenaris S.A. (ADR) (TS)
31.8
102.66
36
-28%
-54%
-59%
79%
1%
40%
5
14
21
8
14
21
3.4x
2.7x
2.5x
1.7
1.8
1.4
1.6
1.3
.9
2.4
1.5
1.3
Cummins (CMI)
Flowserve Corp. (FLS)
Hitachi, Ltd. (ADR) (HIT)
Illinois Tool Works (ITW)
Ingersoll-Rand (IR)
ITT Corp. (ITT)
Metso Oyj (ADR) (MXCYY)
Mitsui & Co., Ltd. ( (MITSY)
United Technologies (UTX)
W.W. Grainger (GWW)
3M (MMM)
Dover Corp. (DOV)
Emerson Electric Co. (EMR)
Fortune Brands (FO)
General Electric (GE)
Leucadia National (LUK)
LVMH Moet Hennessy L (LVMUY)
Norsk Hydro ASA (ADR (NHYDY)
Raytheon Company (RTN)
RWE (RWEOY)
Siemens AG (ADR) (SI)
46.06
97.82
33.71
44.37
32.08
52
28.75
282.18
62.82
90.91
74.62
39.37
41.12
45.78
16.5
25.39
20.28
6.7
48.33
93.09
97.68
-62%
-62%
-29%
-42%
-64%
-39%
-68%
-51%
-40%
-35%
-45%
-45%
-41%
-61%
-65%
-60%
-56%
-59%
-31%
-38%
-55%
32%
13%
117%
13%
19%
19%
9%
13%
8%
3%
1%
20%
17%
39%
77%
80%
90%
14%
32%
9%
5%
9
5
11
22
10
9
4
26
59
7
52
7
31
7
175
6
48
8
19
50
85
9
6
35
25
14
10
5
51
66
7
55
8
35
11
637
8
55
5
19
59
98
2.8x
3.5x
1.0x
2.8x
1.5x
2.7x
1.9x
1.1x
3.4x
3.2x
4.8x
1.9x
3.6x
1.4x
1.6x
1.7x
2.6x
.5x
2.0x
3.0x
2.1x
.9
1.3
.2
1.5
.6
.9
.6
.4
1.1
1.7
2.0
1.0
1.6
.7
.7
1.3
1.1
.1
.8
.5
.7
.7
1.0
.2
1.3
.5
.8
.4
.4
.9
1.6
1.8
.9
1.3
.6
.6
1.3
.8
.1
.8
.3
.6
.7
1.3
.3
1.3
.5
1.0
.5
.3
1.0
1.7
1.8
1.0
1.4
.8
.7
1.3
2.2
.2
.9
.4
.7
Company (Ticker)
52-Week
MV
EV
Price/
Most
12
September 21, 2009
Tobin's Q
to Reach
Price
Sector
Consumer
Cyclical
Industry
Apparel/
Accessories
Appliances &
Tools
Audio & Video

Equipment
Auto & Truck

Manufacturers
Auto & Truck

Parts
Footwear
Furniture &
Fixtures
Photography
Recreational
Products
Textiles
Non-Apparel
Tires
Consumer
Non-Cyclical
Beverages
(Alcoholic)
Beverages
(Non-Alcoholic)
Last
Last
($)
Low
High
($bn)
($bn)
Book
Recent
Quarter
Year
Textron (TXT)
Tyco International L (TYC)
19.44
34.18
-82%
-56%
98%
22%
5
16
14
19
1.8x
1.3x
.3
.7
.1
.6
.3
.6
Coach (COH)
Polo Ralph Lauren Co (RL)
V.F. Corp. (VFC)
33.63
75.5
72.65
-66%
-59%
-47%
1%
9%
16%
11
8
8
10
7
9
6.3x
2.7x
2.2x
3.8
1.4
1.1
3.4
1.0
.9
3.4
1.4
1.2
Electrolux AB (ADR) (ELUXY)

Makita (MKTAY)
Stanley Works, The (SWK)
Whirlpool Corp. (WHR)
47.64
33.18
42.43
73.02
-74%
-62%
-47%
-74%
1%
1%
14%
26%
7
5
3
5
8
4
5
8
3.6x
1.5x
1.9x
1.6x
.8
.7
.9
.5
.4
.4
.8
.4
.2
.1
.8
.5
Koninklijke Philips (PHG)

Panasonic (PC)
SANYO Electric Co., (SANYY)
Sharp Corp. (ADR) (SHCAY)
Sony Corp. (ADR) (SNE)
25.31
15.39
13.4
11.65
28.46
-45%
-31%
-51%
-55%
-45%
23%
26%
7%
4%
16%
23
32
5
13
29
25
28
10
19
29
1.2x
1.1x
n/m
1.1x
.9x
.6
.4
.5
.6
.3
.4
.3
.5
.5
.3
.5
.3
.3
.4
.2
AB Volvo (VOLVY)
Daimler AG (USA) (DAI)
Fiat S.p.A. (ADR) (FIATY)
Ford Motor Company (F)
HONDA MOTOR CO., LTD (HMC)
Nissan Motor Co., Lt (NSANY)
PACCAR (PCAR)
Tata Motors Limited (TTM)
Toyota Motor Corp. ( (TM)
Volkswagen AG (ADR) (VLKAY)
9.51
49.58
13.12
6.94
31.07
13.75
39.63
12.85
83.58
33.55
-68%
-57%
-67%
-85%
-44%
-59%
-49%
-76%
-34%
0%
11%
18%
23%
28%
10%
14%
15%
6%
10%
592%
19
51
16
22
56
28
14
6
131
67
38
125
42
131
98
69
19
234
142
1.9x
1.1x
1.1x
n/m
1.3x
1.0x
2.9x
n/m
1.2x
1.3x
.6
.4
.3
.8
.6
.4
.8
n/a
.6
.4
.5
.4
.2
.8
.5
.3
.6
n/a
.6
.7
.3
.4
.2
.7
.5
.3
.6
n/a
.5
.8
BorgWarner (BWA)
Genuine Parts Compan (GPC)
Magna International (MGA)
NIKE (NKE)
30.86
37.64
41.66
58.59
-53%
-34%
-53%
-35%
29%
17%
49%
16%
4
6
5
28
4
6
4
26
1.7x
2.4x
.7x
3.3x
.9
.8
.2
1.7
1.0
.7
.2
1.6
.7
.9
.2
2.2
Masco Corp. (MAS)

Fujifilm (FUJIY)
14.13
30.65
-74%
-45%
56%
7%
5
15
8
14
1.8x
.8x
.8
.3
.6
.3
.8
.2
Harley-Davidson (HOG)
Hasbro (HAS)
Kawasaki Heavy Indus (KWHIY)
Mattel (MAT)
24.91
28.9
10.45
18.53
-68%
-27%
-49%
-44%
93%
44%
9%
7%
6
4
4
7
8
5
8
7
2.6x
2.9x
1.4x
3.1x
.9
1.2
.3
1.4
.4
1.1
.3
1.3
1.2
1.5
.2
1.3
Mohawk Industries (MHK)

Bridgestone (BRDCY)
Continental AG (ADR) (CTTAY)
Goodyear Tire & Rubb (GT)
52.19
37.25
54.35
17.08
-67%
-34%
-73%
-81%
44%
10%
90%
10%
4
15
9
4
5
22
25
8
1.2x
1.3x
1.3x
7.3x
.6
.5
.6
.3
.5
.4
.5
.2
.6
.4
.6
.1
Companhia de Bebidas (ABV)

Constellation Brands (STZ)
Diageo (DEO)
Heineken N.V. (ADR) (HINKY)
Kirin Holdings Compa (KNBWY)
Molson Coors Brewing (TAP)
79.93
15.55
64.44
23.44
14.85
47.8
-62%
-31%
-36%
-48%
-40%
-36%
1%
51%
20%
0%
4%
6%
49
3
40
23
14
9
52
8
53
37
20
10
4.3x
1.5x
7.6x
3.2x
1.4x
1.3x
2.5
.7
1.7
1.2
.6
.9
2.0
.7
1.3
1.1
.7
.9
2.1
.8
2.2
1.2
.6
.8
Cadbury (CBY)
Coca-Cola Company (KO)
Coca-Cola Enterprise (CCE)
51.66
53.76
21.15
-47%
-30%
-66%
3%
2%
0%
18
125
10
21
128
19
3.4x
5.4x
>9.9x
1.5
2.8
1.1
1.3
2.7
1.0
1.1
2.7
.8
Company (Ticker)
52-Week
MV
EV
Price/
Most
13
September 21, 2009
Tobin's Q
to Reach
Price
Sector
Industry
Food Processing
Household
Products
Tobacco
Energy
Coal
Oil & Gas

- Integrated
Last
Last
($)
Low
High
($bn)
($bn)
Book
Recent
Quarter
Year
Coca-Cola FEMSA (KOF)

Coca-Cola HBC (CCH)
Dr Pepper Snapple (DPS)
Fomento Economico Me (FMX)
Hansen Natural (HANS)
Pepsi Bottling Group (PBG)
PepsiAmericas (PAS)
PepsiCo (PEP)
Archer Daniels (ADM)
Bunge (BG)
Campbell Soup (CPB)
ConAgra Foods (CAG)
Danone (DANOY)
General Mills (GIS)
H.J. Heinz Company (HNZ)
Hershey (HSY)
Hormel Foods Corp. (HRL)
J.M. Smucker Company (SJM)
Kellogg Company (K)
Kraft Foods (KFT)
McCormick (MKC)
Perdigao SA (ADR) (PDA)
Ralcorp Holdings (RAH)
Sara Lee Corp. (SLE)
Tyson Foods (TSN)
Unilever N.V. (ADR) (UN)
Unilever plc (ADR) (UL)
49.47
25.68
27.84
36.37
34.97
36.82
28.7
59.86
29.12
62.5
32.29
22.32
12.13
60.31
39.71
39.61
37.15
53.13
48.82
26.73
35.04
51.85
59.03
10.68
12.7
28.56
27.92
-48%
-63%
-58%
-48%
-41%
-57%
-49%
-27%
-54%
-56%
-24%
-39%
-30%
-23%
-23%
-24%
-33%
-36%
-27%
-22%
-20%
-60%
-14%
-36%
-65%
-41%
-39%
19%
1%
1%
20%
26%
0%
0%
26%
10%
22%
27%
1%
26%
19%
31%
12%
5%
5%
20%
31%
16%
6%
25%
27%
12%
4%
2%
9
9
7
13
3
8
4
93
19
8
11
10
29
20
13
9
5
6
19
39
5
6
3
7
5
82
80
10
12
10
15
3
13
6
23
15
14
13
34
26
17
11
5
7
24
58
6
8
5
9
7
94
92
2.1x
2.3x
2.4x
1.7x
5.8x
4.6x
2.2x
6.7x
1.4x
1.2x
>9.9x
2.1x
3.6x
3.8x
7.7x
>9.9x
2.3x
1.3x
9.5x
1.6x
3.6x
2.8x
1.3x
3.7x
1.0x
5.6x
5.6x
1.3
1.2
1.1
1.1
3.4
.9
1.0
2.7
.5
.4
2.3
1.0
1.3
1.4
1.6
3.0
1.2
.8
2.1
.9
1.7
1.1
.8
1.0
.5
1.8
1.8
1.1
1.0
1.0
1.0
3.2
1.0
1.0
2.6
.4
.4
2.1
.9
1.2
1.3
1.6
2.7
1.2
.8
2.1
.9
1.6
.9
.9
1.0
.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
.9
1.0
1.3
4.1
.8
.8
3.1
.3
.2
2.5
.8
1.9
1.5
1.8
2.6
1.3
.9
2.2
1.0
1.8
.8
1.2
1.0
.5
1.7
1.7
Avon Products (AVP)

Brown-Forman (BF.B)
Church & Dwight Co. (CHD)
Clorox Company, The (CLX)
Colgate-Palmolive Co (CL)
Ecolab (ECL)
Estee Lauder Compani (EL)
Newell Rubbermaid (NWL)
Procter & Gamble (PG)
Shiseido (SSDOY)
Altria Group (MO)
British Am. Tobacco (BTI)
Imperial Tobacco Gro (ITYBY)
Lorillard (LO)
Philip Morris (PM)
Reynolds American (RAI)
Arch Coal (ACI)
CONSOL Energy (CNX)
Peabody Energy Corp. (BTU)
Walter Industries (WLT)
Yanzhou Coal Mining (YZC)
32.16
48.1
56.49
57.93
76.1
47.05
36.79
15.78
57.32
18.09
17.96
64.75
57.41
75.22
48.18
45.06
22.52
46.68
38.74
62.19
15.49
-55%
-27%
-20%
-21%
-29%
-38%
-46%
-71%
-23%
-29%
-20%
-33%
-27%
-30%
-33%
-30%
-54%
-60%
-59%
-82%
-74%
31%
27%
16%
12%
3%
10%
45%
29%
27%
32%
17%
7%
22%
4%
9%
22%
103%
39%
68%
13%
9%
14
7
4
8
38
11
7
4
167
7
37
64
29
12
93
13
4
8
10
3
8
15
8
4
11
41
12
8
7
201
7
50
79
37
12
105
15
5
9
13
3
6
>9.9x
4.0x
2.7x
n/m
>9.9x
6.2x
4.4x
2.5x
2.7x
2.0x
>9.9x
5.8x
>9.9x
>9.9x
>9.9x
2.1x
2.1x
4.8x
2.9x
>9.9x
1.9x
2.3
2.0
1.4
2.4
3.8
2.3
1.4
.9
1.5
1.0
1.4
1.9
2.5
4.1
3.1
.9
1.2
1.3
1.3
2.9
1.2
1.8
1.8
1.5
2.4
3.9
2.1
1.2
.7
1.4
.8
1.2
1.6
2.1
3.9
3.1
.8
.8
.9
1.1
1.1
1.1
3.0
2.5
1.7
2.5
3.7
2.3
1.9
.9
1.7
1.1
2.2
2.4
2.6
4.9
3.0
1.0
1.5
1.4
1.5
1.5
1.2
BP (BP)
Chevron Corp. (CVX)
China Petroleum & Ch (SNP)
54.79
72.64
88.62
-38%
-24%
-48%
3%
24%
6%
171
146
77
203
150
106
1.8x
1.7x
1.5x
.8
.9
.9
.8
.8
.9
.6
1.0
.9
Company (Ticker)
52-Week
MV
EV
Price/
Most
14
September 21, 2009
Tobin's Q
to Reach
Price
Sector
Industry
Oil & Gas

Operations
Last
Last
($)
Low
High
($bn)
($bn)
Book
Recent
Quarter
Year
ConocoPhillips (COP)
Eni S.p.A. (ADR) (E)
Hess Corp. (HES)
Imperial Oil Limited (IMO)
Marathon Oil Corp. (MRO)
PetroChina (PTR)
Petroleo Brasileiro (PBR)
Repsol (REP)
Royal Dutch Shell pl (RDS.A)
StatoilHydro ASA (AD (STO)
Suncor Energy (USA) (SU)
TOTAL S.A. (ADR) (TOT)
YPF SA (ADR) (YPF)
46.8
51.57
55.81
38.63
33.53
119.82
45.13
27.9
58.7
22.93
37.03
61.51
39.5
-27%
-41%
-36%
-38%
-42%
-53%
-67%
-49%
-35%
-44%
-61%
-31%
-60%
71%
13%
85%
21%
30%
3%
11%
14%
10%
23%
38%
9%
25%
69
93
18
33
24
219
198
31
183
73
35
137
16
99
121
22
33
31
231
228
46
203
86
43
156
17
1.2x
1.4x
1.5x
4.0x
1.1x
1.8x
2.5x
1.1x
1.4x
2.3x
2.7x
1.8x
3.2x
.7
.7
.8
2.2
.7
1.2
1.4
.6
.7
.9
1.4
.8
1.7
.6
.6
.8
2.2
.7
1.2
1.5
.5
.6
.8
1.2
.7
1.3
.7
.7
1.0
2.3
.7
1.1
1.3
.7
.5
.9
1.6
.8
2.0
Anadarko Petroleum (APC)

Apache Corp. (APA)
BG Group (BRGYY)
Cabot Oil & Gas (COG)
Canadian Natural (CNQ)
Chesapeake Energy (CHK)
Cimarex Energy Co. (XEC)
CNOOC (CEO)
CNX Gas Corp. (CXG)
Continental Resource (CLR)
Denbury Resources (DNR)
Devon Energy Corp. (DVN)
Ecopetrol S.A. (ADR) (EC)
EnCana Corp. (USA) (ECA)
Energy Transfer Equi (ETE)
Enerplus Resources F (ERF)
Enterprise GP Holdin (EPE)
Enterprise Products (EPD)
EOG Resources (EOG)
EXCO Resources (XCO)
Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM)
Husky Energy (HUSKF)
Lukoil (LUKOY)
Murphy Oil Corp. (MUR)
Newfield Exploration (NFX)
Nexen (USA) (NXY)
Noble Energy (NBL)
Occidental Petroleum (OXY)
OMV Aktiengesellscha (OMVKY)
Penn West Energy Tru (PWE)
Petrohawk Energy Cor (HK)
Pioneer Natural Reso (PXD)
Plains All American (PAA)
Plains Exploration & (PXP)
Questar (STR)
Range Resources Corp (RRC)
Santos Limited (ADR) (STOSY)
Sinopec Shanghai Pet (SHI)
Southwestern Energy (SWN)
63.14
94.19
92.76
37.74
69.2
27.85
42.45
140.73
32.15
41.93
15.71
70.76
27.92
57.82
27.66
22.55
28.74
28.76
81.86
16.86
69.99
28.66
55.25
60.43
44.01
23.76
68.88
77.15
41.2
14.42
23.63
35.3
47.87
28.43
36.85
51.26
53.68
45
44.03
-61%
-46%
-47%
-53%
-62%
-65%
-64%
-61%
-56%
-71%
-64%
-46%
-50%
-41%
-54%
-43%
-50%
-44%
-45%
-76%
-19%
-33%
-60%
-41%
-65%
-55%
-55%
-48%
-46%
-53%
-64%
-66%
-51%
-46%
-44%
-54%
-57%
-68%
-57%
5%
32%
19%
16%
25%
56%
27%
4%
1%
11%
53%
57%
7%
29%
10%
81%
9%
2%
24%
29%
20%
60%
37%
26%
9%
18%
2%
9%
29%
88%
14%
71%
5%
42%
29%
6%
32%
16%
6%
31
32
62
4
38
18
4
63
5
7
4
31
57
43
6
4
4
13
21
4
336
24
47
12
6
12
12
63
12
6
7
4
6
3
6
8
11
3
15
40
36
67
4
48
30
4
58
5
8
5
38
1.6x
2.1x
3.0x
2.1x
2.2x
1.5x
1.9x
2.6x
3.3x
7.6x
2.2x
2.3x
n/m
1.8x
n/m
1.0x
2.3x
2.2x
2.2x
>9.9x
3.2x
1.9x
.9x
1.7x
2.3x
1.9x
2.0x
2.2x
1.1x
.8x
2.4x
1.2x
1.7x
1.3x
1.9x
3.3x
1.9x
1.5x
6.9x
.8
1.3
1.7
1.3
1.3
1.0
1.2
1.8
2.3
3.5
1.4
1.4
n/a
1.1
1.2
.8
.7
1.2
1.3
1.7
1.5
1.1
.6
1.0
1.3
.8
1.1
1.5
.5
.7
1.6
.8
.9
.8
1.0
1.8
1.0
1.0
3.7
.7
1.0
1.4
1.0
1.0
.9
.9
1.7
1.8
2.4
1.2
1.2
n/a
.9
1.2
.8
.6
1.1
1.2
1.5
1.5
1.1
.5
.9
1.0
.7
1.0
1.3
.4
.6
1.4
.7
.9
.8
.9
1.4
1.0
.9
3.3
.7
1.3
1.9
1.4
1.4
1.0
.7
2.0
2.2
3.8
1.6
1.0
n/a
1.2
1.1
1.2
.5
1.1
1.7
1.0
1.5
1.6
.6
1.0
.8
.8
1.0
1.4
.4
.9
1.0
1.0
.7
.7
1.3
1.7
1.9
.3
2.8
Company (Ticker)
52-Week
MV
EV
Price/
Most
50
13
4
18
23
23
6
330
26
56
12
8
18
13
64
16
10
9
7
11
5
9
10
10
4
16
15
September 21, 2009
Tobin's Q
to Reach
Price
Sector
Industry
Oil Well
Services
Financial
Health
Insurance
Insurance
(Miscellaneous)
Investment
Services
Last
Last
($)
Low
High
($bn)
($bn)
Book
Recent
Quarter
Year
Sunoco (SUN)
Talisman Energy (USA (TLM)
Ultra Petroleum Corp (UPL)
Ultrapar Participaco (UGP)
Valero Energy (VLO)
Williams Companies (WMB)
XTO Energy (XTO)
28.44
17.86
50.49
40.05
20.22
18.37
42.91
-25%
-64%
-43%
-66%
-31%
-48%
-45%
67%
4%
25%
1%
79%
55%
32%
3
18
8
5
11
11
25
6
20
8
1.2x
1.7x
>9.9x
2.1x
.7x
1.3x
1.4x
.5
.9
4.5
1.0
.4
.7
1.0
.5
.8
3.6
.9
.3
.7
.9
.5
.9
4.1
.6
.5
.7
1.4
Baker Hughes (BHI)

BJ Services (BJS)
Cameron (CAM)
CGG Veritas (ADR) (CGV)
Diamond Offshore Dri (DO)
Enbridge (USA) (ENB)
Enbridge Energy Part (EEP)
Energy Transfer Part (ETP)
Ensco International (ESV)
FMC Technologies (FTI)
Halliburton Company (HAL)
Helmerich & Payne (HP)
Kinder Morgan Mgmt (KMR)
McDermott (MDR)
Nabors Industries (NBR)
Nat.-Oilwell Varco (NOV)
Noble Corp. (NE)
Oceaneering Internat (OII)
Pride International (PDE)
Schlumberger (SLB)
Smith International (SII)
TEPPCO Partners, L.P (TPP)
Transocean (RIG)
Weatherford Internat (WFT)
44.01
19.82
38.77
23.99
93.99
38.03
44.88
42.82
41.25
54.36
28.15
38.3
47.49
26.73
20.41
43.68
38.11
58.77
29.77
61.85
28.58
35.35
86.45
22.48
-45%
-58%
-58%
-60%
-43%
-31%
-50%
-48%
-47%
-63%
-55%
-56%
-35%
-78%
-60%
-60%
-50%
-69%
-64%
-43%
-36%
-52%
-51%
-66%
57%
18%
18%
55%
25%
8%
7%
11%
69%
2%
37%
42%
2%
30%
42%
49%
31%
11%
11%
51%
141%
2%
49%
48%
14
6
9
4
13
14
5
7
6
7
25
4
4
6
6
18
10
3
5
74
6
4
28
16
14
6
8
5
13
25
9
13
5
7
28
4
4
5
9
17
10
3
5
76
9
39
22
1.9x
1.6x
3.2x
.8x
3.7x
2.2x
1.5x
1.7x
1.1x
7.4x
3.1x
1.6x
1.7x
4.0x
1.1x
1.4x
1.7x
2.9x
1.1x
4.0x
1.3x
2.5x
1.5x
1.9x
1.0
1.1
1.2
.6
2.3
1.1
1.1
1.2
.8
2.0
1.5
1.0
1.6
1.3
.8
.7
1.3
1.7
.8
2.2
.5
1.2
1.0
1.1
.8
.7
.9
.4
2.1
1.0
1.0
1.1
.7
1.4
1.0
.9
1.4
1.0
.6
.5
1.1
1.4
.6
1.9
.5
1.1
.9
1.0
1.5
1.1
1.3
.8
2.9
1.2
.9
1.0
1.5
1.5
1.8
1.4
1.8
1.3
.9
.8
1.9
1.6
.9
3.1
1.5
.8
1.4
1.3
Aetna (AET)
AFLAC (AFL)
Assurant (AIZ)
CIGNA Corp. (CI)
Humana (HUM)
Torchmark (TMK)
Transatlantic (TRH)
UnitedHealth Group (UNH)
Unum Group (UNM)
WellPoint (WLP)
30.8
42.75
31.99
31.84
39.89
44.86
50.76
28.58
22.46
54.4
-54%
-75%
-61%
-75%
-53%
-64%
-48%
-49%
-66%
-49%
43%
59%
88%
34%
18%
47%
39%
6%
33%
2%
13
20
4
9
7
4
3
33
7
26
16
20
4
10
2
5
4
37
10
34
1.5x
3.1x
.9x
1.9x
1.3x
1.4x
.9x
1.5x
1.0x
1.2x
.5
.3
.2
.3
.4
.3
.3
.9
.2
.7
.4
.2
.2
.2
.3
.3
.3
.8
.2
.7
.5
.4
.3
.3
.5
.4
.3
.9
.2
.7
Aon Corp. (AOC)

MetLife (MET)
Willis Group Holding (WSH)
41.72
39.32
28.15
-21%
-71%
-34%
20%
67%
24%
11
32
5
13
64
7
2.0x
1.2x
2.2x
.5
.1
.4
.5
.1
.4
.6
.1
.4
32.76
30.3
207.19
15
17.61
304
-64%
-49%
-57%
-76%
-39%
-49%
52%
42%
20%
30%
63%
45%
8
36
28
17
20
20
6
(19)
27
16
13
23
1.0x
1.3x
2.2x
5.0x
4.4x
1.1x
.1
.3
1.4
2.2
.4
.6
.1
.3
1.2
.4
.4
.6
.1
.3
1.2
.3
.6
1.0
Company (Ticker)
Ameriprise Financial (AMP)

Bank of NY Mellon (BK)
BlackRock (BLK)
Blackstone Group (BX)
Charles Schwab Corp. (SCHW)
CME Group (CME)
52-Week
MV
EV
Price/
Most
17
17
34
16
September 21, 2009
Tobin's Q
to Reach
Price
Sector
Industry
Life Insurance
Misc. Financial
Services
Last
Last
($)
Low
High
($bn)
($bn)
Book
Recent
Quarter
Year
Credit Suisse Group (CS)

Eaton Vance Corp. (EV)
Franklin Resources (BEN)
Goldman Sachs (GS)
IntercontinentalExch (ICE)
Invesco Ltd. (IVZ)
Jefferies Group (JEF)
JPMorgan Chase (JPM)
Legg Mason (LM)
Morgan Stanley (MS)
NASDAQ OMX Group (NDAQ)
Nomura (NMR)
NYSE Euronext (NYX)
Och-Ziff Capital Man (OZM)
SEI Investments (SEIC)
State Street Corp. (STT)
T. Rowe Price Group (TROW)
TD Ameritrade Holdin (AMTD)
UBS AG (USA) (UBS)
AEGON (AEG)
AXA (AXA)
China Life Insurance (LFC)
Genworth Financial (GNW)
ING Groep N.V. (ADR) (ING)
Lincoln National (LNC)
Manulife Financial C (MFC)
Principal Financial (PFG)
Prudential Financial (PRU)
Prudential Public Li (PUK)
Reinsurance Group (RGA)
Sun Life Financial ( (SLF)
Swiss Re (ADR) (SWCEY)
55.35
29.55
103.46
183.18
97.63
22.56
25.22
44.95
32.6
31.38
22.62
7.7
30.29
11.32
19.26
54.39
46.52
19.71
18.75
8.34
25.53
70.02
13.04
16.85
26.31
21.22
28.29
52.69
18.66
45.27
29.75
45
-66%
-60%
-64%
-74%
-49%
-63%
-68%
-67%
-68%
-79%
-34%
-49%
-52%
-72%
-52%
-73%
-57%
-53%
-62%
-73%
-72%
-52%
-95%
-82%
-82%
-67%
-81%
-80%
-70%
-53%
-61%
-77%
2%
49%
24%
0%
25%
29%
15%
13%
43%
8%
72%
101%
52%
45%
25%
27%
51%
19%
14%
37%
41%
1%
24%
78%
128%
77%
92%
70%
20%
42%
28%
35%
65
3
24
94
7
9
4
177
5
43
5
20
8
4
4
27
12
12
60
13
53
132
6
34
8
34
9
24
24
3
17
16
(181)
4
20
365
7
9
7
137
6
240
6
91
10
5
3
22
11
7
243
20
123
8
263
11
28
7
36
27
5
14
19
1.9x
>9.9x
3.2x
1.7x
3.3x
1.4x
2.0x
1.2x
1.0x
1.2x
1.0x
1.2x
1.2x
n/m
4.4x
2.2x
4.6x
3.4x
1.8x
.6x
1.0x
4.5x
.6x
.7x
.9x
1.4x
1.6x
1.3x
3.0x
1.1x
1.1x
.7x
.2
3.6
2.1
.3
.3
.9
.3
.2
.6
.4
.5
.3
.7
2.6
2.3
.2
4.0
.8
.2
.1
.1
.8
.1
.1
.1
.2
.1
.1
.1
.2
.1
.2
.2
3.4
1.5
.3
.5
.8
.3
.2
.5
.4
.5
.3
.7
.8
2.2
.2
3.8
.9
.2
.0
.1
.7
.1
.1
.1
.2
.1
.1
.1
.2
.1
.1
.2
4.6
1.8
.2
1.8
.7
.2
.3
.4
.2
.8
.3
.7
.8
3.1
.2
4.6
.6
.2
.0
.1
.8
.1
.1
.1
.4
.1
.1
.1
.2
.2
.2
Cheung Kong (Holding (CHEUY)

Diamonds Trust, Seri (DIA)
Energy Select Sector (XLE)
Financial Select Sec (XLF)
iShares Dow Jones Se (DVY)
iShares FTSE/Xinhua (FXI)
iShares IBoxx $ Inve (LQD)
iShares Lehman 1-3 Y (SHY)
iShares Lehman Aggre (AGG)
iShares Lehman TIPS (TIP)
iShares MSCI Brazil (EWZ)
iShares MSCI EAFE In (EFA)
iShares MSCI Emergin (EEM)
iShares MSCI Japan I (EWJ)
iShares MSCI Pacific (EPP)
iShares MSCI Taiwan (EWT)
iShares Russell 1000 (IWD)
iShares Russell 1000 (IWF)
iShares Russell 2000 (IWM)
iShares Russell 2000 (IWN)
12.9
98.1
55.18
15.14
42.24
43.36
105.79
83.81
104.24
101.94
65.31
55.6
39.03
10.17
39.72
12.18
56.63
46.8
61.92
58.36
-45%
-34%
-32%
-61%
-39%
-55%
-28%
-1%
-17%
-17%
-59%
-43%
-53%
-33%
-51%
-47%
-41%
-35%
-45%
-46%
3%
18%
41%
60%
53%
2%
1%
2%
1%
3%
1%
15%
1%
12%
1%
0%
37%
29%
39%
42%
30
8
6
7
4
11
12
7
10
15
10
36
34
6
3
3
8
11
12
3
34
8
6
7
4
11
12
7
10
15
10
36
34
6
3
3
8
11
12
3
1.0x
1.1x
1.5x
1.6x
1.2x
2.0x
1.4x
1.0x
1.0x
1.5x
2.6x
1.3x
2.0x
1.4x
1.9x
2.9x
1.4x
1.3x
1.5x
1.3x
.7
1.1
1.4
1.5
1.2
1.7
1.4
.9
.6
1.0
2.5
1.2
1.8
1.4
1.7
2.9
1.3
1.2
1.4
1.2
.6
1.1
1.0
.9
.7
.9
1.0
.7
.6
.7
.8
.6
.7
.8
.7
.9
.7
.8
.7
.6
.7
.8
1.1
.6
.8
.8
.9
.7
.7
.7
1.2
.8
.9
.7
.8
.7
.9
1.0
.5
.9
Company (Ticker)
52-Week
MV
EV
Price/
Most
17
September 21, 2009
Tobin's Q
to Reach
Price
Sector
Industry
Money Center
Banks
Property &
Casualty Insurance
Last
Last
($)
Low
High
($bn)
($bn)
Book
Recent
Quarter
Year
iShares Russell 3000 (IWV)

iShares Russell Midc (IWR)
iShares S&P 500 Grow (IVW)
iShares S&P 500 Inde (IVV)
iShares S&P 500 Valu (IVE)
iShares S&P MidCap 4 (IJH)
iShares S&P SmallCap (IJR)
iShares Silver Trust (SLV)
Market Vectors Gold (GDX)
MidCap SPDRs (ETF) (MDY)
PowerShares QQQ Trus (QQQQ)
ProShares UltraShort (SDS)
SPDR Gold Trust (ETF (GLD)
SPDR Trust, Series 1 (SPY)
Technology SPDR (ETF (XLK)
Vanguard Emerging Ma (VWO)
Vanguard Growth ETF (VUG)
Vanguard REIT ETF (VNQ)
Western Union Compan (WU)
62.93
79.57
54.77
107.64
52.06
70.22
53.59
16.7
45.93
127.35
42.44
39.67
98.67
106.72
20.89
38.68
49.76
43.6
19.56
-39%
-44%
-34%
-38%
-41%
-43%
-44%
-49%
-66%
-43%
-41%
-2%
-30%
-37%
-38%
-52%
-35%
-54%
-49%
26%
36%
24%
32%
41%
21%
42%
3%
5%
19%
3%
236%
1%
20%
6%
11%
24%
53%
39%
3
4
6
21
4
6
5
5
5
8
17
3
35
73
4
11
4
3
14
3
4
6
21
4
6
5
5
5
1.4x
1.3x
1.3x
1.4x
1.5x
1.7x
1.5x
1.3x
1.2x
n/m
n/m
.8x
1.2x
n/m
1.5x
1.7x
1.1x
2.5x
>9.9x
1.4
1.2
1.2
1.4
1.4
1.5
1.3
1.3
1.2
n/a
n/a
.8
1.2
n/a
1.5
1.7
1.1
2.5
2.9
.8
.7
.8
.8
.7
.7
.7
1.0
1.6
n/a
n/a
.5
1.0
n/a
.7
2.1
1.2
.5
2.6
.9
.8
1.0
.8
.8
.9
.8
.9
.8
n/a
n/a
2.3
1.2
n/a
.9
.8
.8
.8
3.6
Allied Irish Banks (AIB)

Alpha Bank (ALBKY)
Australia and NZ (ANZBY)
Banc Santander-Chile (SAN)
Banco Bilbao Vizcaya (BBV)
Banco de Chile (BCH)
Bancolombia (CIB)
Bank of America (BAC)
Bank of East Asia (BKEAY)
Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS)
Barclays (BCS)
Can. Imperial Bank (CM)
Citigroup (C)
Deutsche Bank (DB)
HDFC Bank Limited (A (HDB)
ICICI Bank Limited ( (IBN)
Itau Unibanco (ITUB)
Lloyds TSB Group plc (LYG)
Mitsubishi UFJ Finan (MTU)
National Australia B (NABZY)
National Bank of Gre (NBG)
Royal Bank of Canada (RY)
Royal Bank of Scotla (RBS)
Societe Generale (SCGLY)
Swedbank AB (ADR) (SWDBY)
Toronto-Dominion Ban (TD)
U.S. Bancorp (USB)
Westpac Banking (WBK)
9.84
4.05
20.22
53.89
17.98
48.25
39.25
17.63
3.71
45.72
24.57
61.76
4.26
77.05
108.54
35.41
18.8
7.32
5.85
25.81
6.64
53.73
18.39
15.98
12.75
64.21
22.76
108.5
-93%
-73%
-63%
-53%
-69%
-56%
-62%
-86%
-63%
-58%
-89%
-55%
-77%
-73%
-59%
-73%
-68%
-72%
-37%
-61%
-69%
-62%
-84%
-71%
-84%
-60%
-65%
-58%
152%
48%
0%
1%
2%
0%
1%
124%
8%
5%
32%
5%
452%
17%
2%
5%
2%
216%
57%
1%
41%
1%
365%
26%
32%
1%
86%
1%
4
7
51
10
67
7
8
153
7
47
68
24
48
48
15
20
85
50
68
48
20
76
52
46
7
55
44
63
47
(114)
158
36
108
49
.2x
n/m
3.0x
3.6x
1.6x
2.8x
2.5x
.8x
1.6x
2.6x
1.1x
2.5x
.6x
.9x
5.2x
2.2x
n/m
.9x
1.1x
1.9x
1.9x
2.8x
.6x
.8x
.6x
1.7x
1.9x
2.1x
.0
n/a
.4
.6
.3
.4
.3
.3
.2
.1
.0
.1
.3
.1
.4
.4
n/a
.1
.1
.3
.1
.1
.0
.0
.6
.2
.3
.1
.0
n/a
.3
.5
.3
.4
.2
.3
.1
.1
.0
.1
.2
.1
.5
.4
n/a
.0
.1
.2
.1
.1
.0
.0
.6
.2
.3
.1
.1
n/a
.3
.5
.3
.4
.3
.2
.1
.1
.0
.1
.3
.1
.4
.4
n/a
.1
.1
.2
.2
.1
.0
.0
.6
.2
.4
.1
50.03
39.91
12.16
30.64
-38%
-83%
-55%
-55%
36%
186%
31%
57%
17
5
55
16
18
179
69
22
1.0x
.1x
1.1x
1.1x
.3
.2
.1
.2
.2
.2
.1
.1
.3
.2
.1
.2
Company (Ticker)
ACE Limited (ACE)

AIG (AIG)
Allianz (AZ)
Allstate (ALL)
52-Week
MV
EV
Price/
Most
3
35
4
11
4
3
15
66
16
(264)
10
5
423
(6)
12
(131)
34
(71)
14
(2)
(228)
(121)
51
(12)
(60)
18
September 21, 2009
Tobin's Q
to Reach
Price
Sector
Industry
Company (Ticker)
Regional Banks
Arch Capital Group (ACGL)

Axis Capital (AXS)
Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A)
Chubb Corp., The (CB)
Cincinnati Financial (CINF)
CNA Financial Corp. (CNA)
Everest Re Group, Lt (RE)
Fairfax Financial (FFH)
Fidelity National (FNF)
Hartford Financial S (HIG)
Loews Corp. (L)
Odyssey Re (ORH)
PartnerRe Ltd. (PRE)
Progressive Corp., T (PGR)
RenaissanceRe Holdin (RNR)
SCOR SE (ADR) (SCRYY)
Tokio Marine Holding (TKOMY)
Travelers Companies (TRV)
W.R. Berkley Corp. (WRB)
XL Capital (XL)
Zurich Financial (ZFSVY)
Banco Bradesco SA (BBD)
Banco Santander (STD)
Bank of Ireland (IRE)
Bank of Montreal (BMO)
BB&T Corp. (BBT)
Comericaorporated (CMA)
Commerzbank AG (ADR) (CRZBY)
Credicorp Ltd. (USA) (BAP)
Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB)
HSBC Holdings (HBC)
KB Financial Group ( (KB)
KeyCorp (KEY)
M&T Bank (MTB)
Mizuho Financial Gro (MFG)
Nedbank Group Ltd. ( (NDBKY)
PNC Financial Servic (PNC)
Regions Financial Co (RF)
Shinhan Financial Gr (SHG)
SunTrust Banks (STI)
United Overseas Bank (UOVEY)
Wells Fargo (WFC)
Woori Finance Holdin (WF)
Retail Financial
Services
S&Ls/Savings
American Express (AXP)

Capital One (COF)
Discover Financial S (DFS)
Dun & Bradstreet (DNB)
Fidelity National (FIS)
Metavante Technologi (MV)
SLM Corp. (SLM)
Visa (V)
Hudson City Bancorp (HCBK)
52-Week
Last
Last
($)
Low
High
($bn)
($bn)
Book
Recent
Quarter
Year
66.93
29.48
102200
49.16
25.92
25.54
86.09
371.27
15.88
27.21
34.79
62.58
74.63
17.09
52.89
2.72
28.85
47.37
24.99
16.89
23.8
18.58
16.39
19.29
50.18
29.25
30.65
13.29
76.65
10.24
59.53
50.05
6.63
66.04
4.28
32.95
45.98
6.13
79.04
23.71
23.6
28.49
42.35
-51%
-41%
-31%
-32%
-47%
-75%
-36%
-43%
-58%
-88%
-50%
-50%
-36%
-43%
-40%
-63%
-38%
-39%
-33%
-85%
-55%
-60%
-70%
-97%
-61%
-56%
-62%
-79%
-61%
-90%
-62%
-71%
-34%
-56%
-24%
-63%
-65%
-62%
-68%
-75%
-56%
-73%
-80%
20%
22%
44%
41%
35%
20%
10%
1%
44%
166%
42%
1%
3%
17%
8%
1%
31%
24%
25%
26%
38%
2%
3%
63%
3%
55%
76%
81%
0%
105%
45%
6%
179%
64%
180%
0%
91%
223%
21%
170%
10%
57%
4%
4
4
159
17
4
7
5
7
4
9
15
4
4
12
3
5
23
27
4
6
33
57
134
5
28
19
5
16
6
8
206
17
6
8
24
7
21
7
16
12
18
133
9
4
4
173
21
5
10
6
8
4
16
24
3
4
14
4
4
21
33
5
4
31
1.0x
1.0x
1.4x
1.2x
1.0x
.9x
.9x
1.2x
1.2x
.8x
1.0x
1.2x
.9x
2.4x
1.2x
7.8x
1.1x
1.0x
1.2x
.8x
1.3x
n/m
1.4x
.5x
1.5x
1.3x
.9x
.4x
3.2x
.8x
1.7x
n/m
.7x
1.2x
n/m
1.4x
.8x
.5x
n/m
.7x
1.5x
1.5x
n/m
.3
.3
.7
.4
.4
.2
.4
.3
.6
.1
.3
.4
.3
.7
.5
.3
.1
.3
.3
.2
.1
n/a
.1
.1
.1
.2
.3
.2
.3
.2
.1
n/a
.2
.3
n/a
.1
.2
.2
n/a
.2
.2
.3
n/a
.2
.3
.7
.4
.3
.1
.3
.2
.5
.0
.3
.3
.3
.7
.5
.2
.2
.3
.3
.1
.1
n/a
.1
.0
.1
.2
.3
.2
.3
.2
.1
n/a
.2
.3
n/a
.1
.1
.2
n/a
.2
.2
.3
n/a
.3
.4
.9
.5
.4
.2
.4
.3
.6
.1
.4
.3
.3
.7
.5
.1
.2
.3
.3
.1
.1
n/a
.1
.1
.1
.3
.3
.3
.3
.2
.1
n/a
.2
.3
n/a
.1
.3
.1
n/a
.2
.2
.4
n/a
34.77
37.5
16.06
74.26
24.93
33.53
8.81
73.79
13.8
-72%
-79%
-71%
-14%
-55%
-66%
-65%
-43%
-46%
18%
69%
6%
32%
2%
1%
90%
1%
82%
41
17
9
4
5
4
4
62
7
3.1x
.7x
1.4x
n/m
1.3x
8.0x
1.3x
2.7x
1.4x
.8
.2
.3
3.0
.9
1.8
.7
1.8
.1
.7
.2
.2
3.3
.8
1.5
.7
1.5
.1
.7
.3
.2
3.7
.7
1.2
.8
1.6
.2
MV
EV
Price/
Most
(77)
11
62
47
15
479
5
18
(78)
18
19
(1)
30
22
31
11
356
81
31
2
5
7
5
173
58
21
19
September 21, 2009
Tobin's Q
to Reach
Price
Sector
Health Care
Industry
Banks
Biotechnology
& Drugs
Healthcare
Facilities
Major Drugs
Last
Last
($)
Low
High
($bn)
($bn)
Book
Recent
Quarter
Year
Northern Trust Corp. (NTRS)

NY Community Bancorp (NYB)
People's United Fin. (PBCT)
TFS Financial (TFSL)
58.73
11.31
16.23
11.71
-42%
-32%
-9%
-12%
46%
95%
34%
18%
14
4
6
4
2
8
3
3
2.3x
.9x
1.1x
2.0x
.3
.1
.3
.3
.2
.1
.3
.3
.3
.2
.3
.4
Alexion Pharma (ALXN)

Allergan (AGN)
AmerisourceBergen (ABC)
Amgen (AMGN)
Biogen Idec (BIIB)
Cardinal Health (CAH)
Celgene (CELG)
Cephalon (CEPH)
Covance (CVD)
Dendreon Corp. (DNDN)
Edwards Lifesciences (EW)
Eisai Co., Ltd (ADR) (ESALY)
Elan Corp., plc (ADR (ELN)
Forest Laboratories (FRX)
Genzyme (GENZ)
Gilead Sciences (GILD)
Hospira (HSP)
Inverness Medical In (IMA)
Life Technologies (LIFE)
McKesson (MCK)
Mylan (MYL)
Novo Nordisk (NVO)
Sanofi-Aventis (SNY)
Shire Plc. (ADR) (SHPGY)
Teva Pharmaceutical (TEVA)
Vertex Pharmaceutica (VRTX)
Warner Chilcott Ltd. (WCRX)
Watson Pharmaceutica (WPI)
45.89
57.43
21.76
60.8
50
27.89
52.54
58.49
57.36
29.2
67.26
37.64
7.18
28.95
57.55
45.76
43.12
40
48.46
58.46
16.08
64.25
36.76
52.24
51.88
37.55
19.85
36.81
-39%
-50%
-39%
-26%
-26%
-29%
-30%
-10%
-45%
-91%
-33%
-31%
-32%
-37%
-18%
-22%
-51%
-69%
-60%
-52%
-64%
-36%
-35%
-39%
-31%
-51%
-53%
-45%
2%
4%
0%
7%
11%
35%
30%
39%
69%
2%
2%
14%
65%
3%
44%
16%
4%
5%
0%
3%
0%
2%
1%
2%
6%
3%
16%
0%
4
17
6
62
14
10
24
4
4
3
4
11
3
9
16
41
7
3
9
16
5
45
100
10
46
7
5
4
4
18
7
61
14
12
22
4
4
3
4
14
5
6
15
42
8
5
12
15
10
43
103
11
51
6
6
4
>9.9x
4.0x
2.3x
2.9x
2.3x
1.1x
6.2x
2.2x
2.8x
>9.9x
3.8x
2.3x
n/m
2.0x
2.0x
8.0x
3.2x
1.2x
2.3x
2.5x
1.7x
6.9x
1.5x
6.2x
2.6x
9.3x
3.4x
1.7x
7.5
2.5
.6
1.5
1.5
.4
4.5
.8
1.8
9.2
2.3
1.0
2.9
1.0
1.4
4.8
1.4
.8
1.2
.6
.8
4.3
.9
2.5
1.5
4.4
2.2
.9
6.7
2.1
.5
1.4
1.5
.3
4.2
1.0
1.6
>9.9
2.6
1.0
2.5
.9
1.6
5.4
1.3
.8
1.1
.4
.8
3.2
.8
1.9
1.4
3.3
1.6
.9
7.9
2.4
.6
1.8
1.8
.5
6.2
1.7
3.3
3.2
2.2
1.1
3.6
1.4
2.2
6.3
1.3
.7
1.1
.6
.6
3.1
.8
2.2
1.4
4.4
1.7
.8
Community Health Sys (CYH)

DaVita (DVA)
Fresenius Medical Ca (FMS)
Lab Corp. of America (LH)
Quest Diagnosticsorp (DGX)
Abbott Laboratories (ABT)
Alcon (ACL)
AstraZeneca (AZN)
Bayer (BAYRY)
Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY)
Eli Lilly & Co. (LLY)
GlaxoSmithKline (GSK)
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)
Merck (MRK)
Novartis (NVS)
Pfizer (PFE)
Roche Holding (RHHBY)
Schering-Plough Corp (SGP)
34.27
55.57
49.36
63.5
51
45.97
139.65
45.2
70.55
22.52
32.86
39.1
60.78
31.88
48.22
16.51
40.95
27.96
-69%
-26%
-31%
-17%
-24%
-10%
-52%
-34%
-40%
-29%
-17%
-31%
-24%
-37%
-31%
-30%
-36%
-57%
4%
6%
8%
23%
18%
32%
28%
5%
18%
6%
45%
16%
20%
4%
15%
17%
3%
3%
3
6
15
7
9
71
42
66
54
45
38
101
167
67
109
111
141
46
12
9
20
8
12
80
40
70
69
43
42
116
166
61
111
100
173
52
1.7x
2.8x
2.3x
3.4x
2.5x
3.6x
8.7x
3.7x
2.2x
3.2x
4.4x
7.9x
3.6x
3.3x
2.2x
1.8x
>9.9x
4.8x
.8
1.1
1.2
1.6
1.5
1.6
5.2
1.4
.8
1.4
1.5
1.9
1.8
1.2
1.3
.7
2.2
1.6
.7
1.1
1.1
1.7
1.6
1.7
3.9
1.5
.7
1.3
1.6
1.6
1.8
1.1
1.2
.7
1.3
1.6
.8
1.2
1.3
1.9
1.5
2.1
6.2
1.5
.8
1.5
1.6
2.3
2.1
1.3
1.3
.9
1.5
1.2
Company (Ticker)
52-Week
MV
EV
Price/
Most
20
September 21, 2009
Tobin's Q
to Reach
Price
Sector
Industry
Medical
Equipment
Services
Advertising
Broadcasting
& Cable TV
Business
Services
Last
Last
($)
Low
High
($bn)
($bn)
Book
Recent
Quarter
Year
48.01
-42%
1%
64
60
3.1x
1.2
1.2
1.0
Baxter International (BAX)

Becton, Dickinson (BDX)
Boston Scientific (BSX)
C.R. Bard (BCR)
CareFusion (CFN)
Covidien Ltd. (COV)
DENTSPLY Internation (XRAY)
Henry Schein (HSIC)
Hologic (HOLX)
Intuitive Surgical (ISRG)
Luxottica Group S.p. (LUX)
Medtronic (MDT)
Patterson Companies (PDCO)
ResMed (RMD)
Smith & Nephew plc ( (SNN)
St. Jude Medical (STJ)
Stryker Corp. (SYK)
Varian Medical (VAR)
Zimmer Holdings (ZMH)
Interpublic Group (IPG)
Omnicom Group (OMC)
Publicis Groupe S.A. (PUBGY)
WPP PLC (ADR) (WPPGY)
58.36
70.26
10.97
80.15
21.81
41.48
34.65
55.41
16.47
247.92
26.58
37.46
27.77
45.52
45.74
38.45
47.16
43.21
51.12
7.47
38.07
40.59
43.66
-22%
-17%
-51%
-14%
-21%
-34%
-37%
-42%
-43%
-66%
-56%
-36%
-43%
-37%
-34%
-35%
-35%
-37%
-40%
-66%
-47%
-54%
-49%
19%
21%
26%
27%
3%
37%
18%
6%
26%
18%
2%
44%
17%
3%
24%
20%
39%
48%
42%
18%
17%
0%
7%
35
17
17
8
5
21
5
5
4
9
12
41
3
3
8
13
19
5
11
4
12
7
11
37
17
22
7
5
23
5
5
6
9
16
47
4
3
9
14
16
5
11
4
14
9
17
5.4x
3.2x
1.2x
3.7x
.9x
2.6x
3.0x
2.4x
1.7x
7.4x
3.0x
3.2x
2.7x
3.1x
4.3x
3.5x
3.1x
4.4x
1.9x
2.1x
3.1x
2.4x
1.3x
2.2
1.7
.8
2.5
.5
1.2
1.7
1.2
1.0
6.0
1.4
1.9
1.5
2.0
1.8
2.0
1.8
2.2
1.3
.5
1.0
.6
.6
2.2
2.1
.7
2.3
.0
1.1
1.6
1.0
.9
4.3
1.2
1.7
1.2
2.0
1.6
2.4
1.6
1.8
1.2
.4
.9
.5
.4
2.6
2.3
.8
3.4
n/a
1.7
1.8
1.2
.8
7.2
1.3
2.6
1.7
2.0
2.1
2.6
2.7
3.4
2.0
.5
.9
.6
.6
British Sky B. (BSY)

Cablevision Systems (CVC)
CBS (CBS)
Comcast Corp. (CMCSA)
DIRECTV Group (DTV)
Discovery Comms (DISCA)
DISH Network (DISH)
Grupo Televisa, S.A. (TV)
Liberty Entertain. (LMDIA)
Liberty Global (LBTYA)
Liberty Media Int'l (LINTA)
Naspers Limited (ADR (NPSNY)
Net Servicos de Comu (NETC)
News Corp. (NWSA)
Scripps Networks Int (SNI)
Shaw Communications (SJR)
Time Warner (TWX)
Time Warner Cable (TWC)
Viacom (VIA.B)
Walt Disney (DIS)
35.27
25.08
12.6
17.29
26.33
29.6
18.09
18.63
29.89
24.49
11.32
34.7
10.85
12.21
37.28
18.14
29.58
42.67
28.19
28.44
-44%
-63%
-76%
-47%
-57%
-66%
-54%
-42%
-68%
-63%
-83%
-66%
-64%
-59%
-51%
-26%
-48%
-53%
-59%
-47%
4%
11%
35%
23%
4%
1%
45%
36%
1%
30%
34%
4%
6%
18%
21%
26%
9%
85%
5%
23%
15
8
9
50
26
8
8
10
15
6
7
11
4
32
6
8
35
15
17
53
19
19
15
79
29
11
12
11
17
26
13
11
7
40
6
11
46
37
24
63
n/m
n/m
1.0x
1.2x
5.6x
1.4x
n/m
3.6x
1.3x
2.3x
1.1x
9.2x
n/m
1.4x
4.8x
3.4x
1.0x
1.9x
2.3x
1.5x
2.6
2.0
.6
.7
1.9
1.1
1.8
1.2
1.0
.8
.7
4.3
2.0
.7
3.1
1.4
.7
.9
1.2
1.0
1.9
1.9
.4
.7
1.9
1.2
1.8
.9
.9
.8
.5
3.2
2.3
.6
2.4
1.3
.6
.8
1.0
.9
2.3
1.9
.4
.8
1.9
.6
1.9
1.5
.8
.9
.7
3.4
1.5
.6
2.7
1.6
.5
.6
1.1
1.1
Accenture (ACN)
AECOM Technology (ACM)
Automatic Data (ADP)
EDD Helms (EDHD)
Equifax (EFX)
Global Payments (GPN)
Hewitt Associates (HEW)
35.84
28.79
39.39
620
28.8
45.47
35.88
-31%
-50%
-22%
-13%
-33%
-40%
-37%
20%
15%
16%
65%
26%
9%
14%
26
3
20
7
4
4
3
22
3
18
7
5
3
3
8.7x
1.9x
3.7x
>9.9x
2.5x
3.5x
4.1x
1.9
.7
.7
>9.9
1.4
2.1
1.2
1.8
.8
.6
>9.9
1.3
2.0
1.1
1.8
.7
.9
>9.9
1.6
2.2
1.3
Company (Ticker)
Wyeth (WYE)
52-Week
MV
EV
Price/
Most
21
September 21, 2009
Tobin's Q
to Reach
Price
Sector
Industry
Casinos
& Gaming
Communications
Services
Last
Last
($)
Low
High
($bn)
($bn)
Book
Recent
Quarter
Year
28.27
27.38
58.03
23.88
223.57
23.59
29.68
27.42
6.48
17.39
-41%
-70%
-61%
-28%
-49%
-35%
-32%
-49%
-88%
-49%
13%
31%
1%
54%
7%
70%
14%
5%
224%
20%
6
16
5
13
29
6
11
4
4
24
9
21
4
15
26
7
10
4
3
21
2.9x
2.0x
1.8x
2.2x
>9.9x
n/m
8.0x
4.3x
2.4x
2.1x
1.3
.9
.6
1.0
3.9
3.6
2.0
2.7
1.2
1.5
1.4
.7
.4
.8
3.2
4.1
1.5
2.1
-.2
1.4
1.2
.8
.3
1.1
3.2
5.6
2.2
2.0
2.5
1.5
Las Vegas Sands Corp (LVS)

MGM MIRAGE (MGM)
Wynn Resorts, Limite (WYNN)
18.86
13.22
69.16
-93%
-86%
-79%
149%
180%
50%
12
6
9
21
18
12
3.2x
1.2x
4.6x
1.3
.8
1.8
.8
.7
1.0
1.7
.9
1.9
Advanced Info (AVIFY)

America Movil (AMX)
American Tower (AMT)
AT&T (T)
BCE (BCE)
Brasil Telecom Part. (BRP)
Brasil Telecom SA (BTM)
BT Group (BT)
CenturyTel (CTL)
China Mobile (CHL)
China Telecom Corp. (CHA)
China Unicom (Hong K (CHU)
Chunghwa Telecom Co. (CHT)
Clearwire Corp. (CLWR)
Crown Castle Interna (CCI)
Deutsche Telekom (DT)
Equinix (EQIX)
Ericsson (ERIC)
France Telecom SA (A (FTE)
Hellenic Telecom Org (OTE)
Koninklijke KPN N.V. (KKPNY)
KT Corp. (KTC)
Magyar Telekom Plc. (MTA)
MetroPCS Communicati (PCS)
Millicom Internation (MICC)
Mobile TeleSystems O (MBT)
NII Holdings (NIHD)
Nippon Telegraph & T (NTT)
NTT DoCoMo (ADR) (DCM)
Philippine Long Dist (PHI)
Portugal Telecom, SG (PT)
PT Telekomunikasi In (TLK)
Qwest Communications (Q)
Rogers Communication (RCI)
Rostelecom (ROS)
SBA Communications C (SBAC)
SK Telecom Co., Ltd. (SKM)
Sprint Nextel Corp. (S)
2.94
45.45
37.63
27.05
25.01
49.63
24.76
22.76
31.61
50.28
50.7
14.7
17.48
9.2
30.95
13.69
91.72
10.66
27.48
8.47
16.47
16.84
21.95
10.14
77.1
48.68
29.86
23.72
16.36
48.84
11
34.54
3.5
28.76
29.2
27.71
16.08
4.28
-44%
-49%
-49%
-23%
-33%
-56%
-62%
-57%
-35%
-32%
-49%
-42%
-32%
-71%
-72%
-22%
-64%
-48%
-25%
-37%
-41%
-41%
-54%
-25%
-68%
-62%
-66%
-27%
-25%
-26%
-51%
-52%
-41%
-32%
-25%
-66%
-22%
-68%
12%
21%
15%
15%
52%
4%
3%
42%
27%
18%
11%
16%
12%
36%
23%
18%
3%
2%
9%
25%
2%
15%
13%
87%
1%
38%
69%
18%
24%
22%
2%
7%
39%
26%
129%
14%
26%
77%
9
75
15
160
19
4
5
18
9
202
41
35
19
7
9
60
4
34
68
8
28
7
5
4
8
18
5
63
68
9
10
18
6
18
4
3
10
12
9
82
19
229
31
4
6
38
12
167
53
38
16
6
15
113
4
29
109
14
45
12
6
6
10
21
6
105
71
13
18
19
18
26
3
5
14
28
4.1x
6.2x
4.8x
1.6x
1.5x
1.2x
1.5x
n/m
3.0x
2.9x
1.3x
1.2x
1.7x
3.5x
3.1x
1.1x
3.2x
1.7x
1.7x
5.3x
5.9x
.9x
1.7x
1.7x
4.4x
6.0x
2.1x
.8x
1.4x
5.4x
>9.9x
5.2x
n/m
4.4x
1.9x
4.7x
1.2x
.6x
2.4
2.7
2.2
.9
.9
.4
.6
.9
1.6
1.8
1.0
1.0
1.2
.7
1.5
.7
1.6
.6
1.0
.9
1.3
.6
1.0
.9
1.8
2.1
1.0
.5
.9
1.9
.8
2.2
.9
1.8
1.2
1.7
.8
.5
2.2
2.3
2.0
.8
.8
.3
.5
.8
.8
2.0
1.0
.9
1.3
.0
1.2
.6
1.6
.5
.9
.9
1.2
.5
.7
1.1
1.5
1.8
.8
.4
.8
2.0
.7
2.0
1.0
1.6
1.9
1.6
.8
.6
1.9
3.4
2.3
.9
1.1
.5
.6
1.0
.9
2.5
.9
1.9
1.4
1.2
1.4
.7
1.6
.6
1.0
1.0
1.3
.6
1.1
1.2
1.9
2.1
1.2
.5
1.0
1.9
.9
2.1
.9
2.0
1.6
1.8
1.0
.6
Company (Ticker)
Iron Mountainorporat (IRM)
Johnson Controls (JCI)
Manpower (MAN)
Marsh & McLennan Com (MMC)
MasterCard (MA)
Moody's (MCO)
Paychex (PAYX)
Robert Half Internat (RHI)
Satyam (SAY)
Yahoo! (YHOO)
52-Week
MV
EV
Price/
Most
22
September 21, 2009
Tobin's Q
to Reach
Price
Sector
Industry
Hotels
& Motels
Motion Pictures
Personal Services
Printing
& Publishing
Printing Services
Real Estate
Operations
Last
Last
($)
Low
High
($bn)
($bn)
Book
Recent
Quarter
Year
Swisscom AG (ADR) (SCMWY)

Tele Norte Leste Par (TNE)
Telecom Corp of New (NZT)
Telecom Italia S.p.A (TI)
Telecomunicacoes de (TSP)
Telefonica S.A. (ADR (TEF)
Telefonos de Mexico (TMX)
Telekom Austria AG ( (TKAGY)
Telenor ASA (ADR) (TELNY)
Telephone & Data Sys (TDS)
Telmex Internacional (TII)
Telstra Corp. Limite (TLSYY)
TELUS Corp. (USA) (TU)
TIM Participacoes SA (TSU)
Turkcell (TKC)
United States Cellul (USM)
Verizon Communicatio (VZ)
Vimpel-Communication (VIP)
Virgin Media (VMED)
Vivo Participacoes S (VIV)
Vodafone Group Plc ( (VOD)
Windstream Corp. (WIN)
36.7
18.52
9.46
18.22
25.01
82.32
18.84
36.1
32.07
30.83
14.71
14.2
31.03
25.08
17.18
39.91
29.59
17.95
12.71
24.47
22.91
9.72
-35%
-45%
-43%
-52%
-33%
-43%
-33%
-42%
-57%
-31%
-56%
-31%
-28%
-59%
-45%
-32%
-22%
-73%
-77%
-68%
-33%
-35%
2%
1%
3%
2%
4%
1%
44%
12%
32%
68%
1%
27%
20%
23%
2%
28%
18%
42%
2%
1%
6%
23%
21
7
4
35
13
129
17
8
18
3
13
35
10
6
15
3
84
18
4
9
122
4
32
13
5
88
14
197
17
13
26
4
50
16
8
13
4
148
24
14
12
183
9
4.2x
1.3x
1.9x
1.0x
2.2x
5.5x
6.0x
2.2x
2.1x
.9x
n/m
3.3x
1.4x
1.4x
2.9x
1.0x
2.0x
4.2x
1.5x
1.9x
.9x
>9.9x
1.4
.5
1.2
.7
1.3
1.4
1.2
1.2
1.0
.5
n/a
1.5
1.0
.8
1.7
.7
.7
1.7
1.0
1.0
.8
1.2
1.2
.5
1.1
.7
1.2
1.2
1.6
1.1
.9
.5
n/a
1.4
.9
.6
1.3
.7
.7
1.3
.9
.8
.8
1.1
1.6
.4
1.0
.7
1.3
1.2
1.9
1.2
1.4
.6
n/a
1.7
1.1
.7
1.4
.9
.7
>9.9
.8
2.2
.9
1.3
City Developments Li (CDEVY)

Host Hotels & Resort (HST)
InterContinental Hot (IHG)
Marriott Internation (MAR)
Royal Caribbean Crui (RCL)
Starwood Hotels & Re (HOT)
Dolby Laboratories (DLB)
Cintas Corp. (CTAS)
Ctrip.com (CTRP)
Expedia (EXPE)
H&R Block (HRB)
7.33
11.55
13.44
27.16
23.46
34.09
39.33
29.77
56.05
24.48
17.58
-64%
-73%
-56%
-57%
-77%
-74%
-38%
-39%
-71%
-75%
-22%
3%
54%
6%
8%
14%
15%
12%
8%
3%
2%
59%
7
7
4
10
5
6
4
5
4
7
6
9
12
5
12
11
10
4
5
4
7
6
1.7x
1.2x
n/m
6.8x
.7x
3.5x
3.5x
1.9x
>9.9x
2.9x
5.0x
.8
1.1
1.9
1.3
.8
1.1
2.6
1.2
7.3
1.4
1.5
.6
.9
1.5
1.1
.7
.9
2.6
.9
7.2
1.1
1.3
.7
1.1
1.6
1.2
.7
.9
2.7
1.2
7.1
.7
1.9
Marvel Entertainment (MVL)

McGraw-Hill (MHP)
Reed Elsevier (ENL)
Reed Elsevier (RUK)
Thomson Reuters Corp (TRI)
Thomson Reuters PLC (TRIN)
Washington Post (WPO)
R.R. Donnelley & Son (RRD)
49.95
26.81
23.78
32.11
34.38
199.5
462.5
21.27
-54%
-36%
-18%
-19%
-44%
-57%
-35%
-74%
0%
60%
31%
39%
4%
4%
31%
41%
4
8
8
10
29
28
4
4
4
9
8
10
35
34
4
8
8.6x
6.1x
>9.9x
>9.9x
1.5x
1.4x
1.5x
1.9x
4.8
1.6
>9.9
>9.9
1.0
1.0
.9
.7
3.3
1.8
9.1
9.2
.9
.9
.7
.5
3.2
1.8
3.8
5.5
1.1
n/a
1.0
.7
AMB Property (AMB)

Annaly Capital (NLY)
AvalonBay (AVB)
Boston Properties (BXP)
Brookfield Asset (BAM)
Brookfield Prop. (BPO)
CB Richard Ellis (CBG)
Digital Realty (DLR)
Equity Residential (EQR)
Federal Realty (FRT)
24.85
18.75
75.74
70.55
23.7
11.64
12.48
44.8
31.75
65.41
-65%
-47%
-49%
-58%
-53%
-65%
-81%
-60%
-51%
-44%
130%
1%
49%
50%
23%
89%
44%
14%
54%
45%
4
10
6
10
14
5
4
3
9
4
7
60
10
15
44
18
6
6
18
6
1.4x
1.2x
2.0x
2.2x
2.4x
1.4x
>9.9x
3.7x
1.8x
3.6x
1.0
.2
1.3
1.4
.8
.9
1.3
1.6
1.2
1.5
.8
.1
1.1
1.1
.8
.9
1.0
1.4
1.0
1.3
1.1
.1
1.6
1.6
.8
1.0
.8
1.7
1.4
2.0
Company (Ticker)
52-Week
MV
EV
Price/
Most
23
September 21, 2009
Tobin's Q
to Reach
Price
Sector
Industry
Recreational
Activities
Rental & Leasing
Restaurants
Retail (Apparel)
Retail
(Dep't & Discount)
Retail (Drugs)
Retail (Grocery)
Last
Last
($)
Low
High
($bn)
($bn)
Book
Recent
Quarter
Year
HCP (HCP)
Health Care REIT (HCN)
Kimco Realty (KIM)
Liberty Property (LRY)
Nationwide Health (NHP)
ProLogis (PLD)
Public Storage (PSA)
Regency Centers (REG)
Simon Property (SPG)
SL Green Realty (SLG)
Ventas (VTR)
Vornado Realty (VNO)
30.05
43.44
14.94
34.57
32.15
12.55
77.71
41.05
73.97
43.19
38.94
68.16
-53%
-40%
-58%
-66%
-44%
-82%
-42%
-50%
-68%
-82%
-56%
-61%
40%
24%
220%
29%
20%
259%
32%
99%
38%
96%
34%
53%
8
5
6
4
3
6
13
3
21
3
6
12
14
8
10
6
5
14
17
6
36
8
9
23
1.6x
1.5x
1.3x
1.8x
2.0x
.7x
2.4x
2.0x
5.0x
.8x
2.4x
2.1x
1.2
1.3
1.0
1.2
1.4
.6
1.8
1.3
1.6
.8
1.6
1.2
.9
1.1
.8
.9
1.2
.4
1.6
1.2
1.3
.6
1.3
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.5
1.2
1.5
.8
2.0
1.7
1.7
.8
1.8
1.3
Carnival Corp. (CCL)

Carnival plc (CUK)
Hertz Global (HTZ)
ORIX Corp. (ADR) (IX)
Darden Restaurants (DRI)
McDonald's (MCD)
Sodexo SA (ADR) (SDXAY)
Starbucks (SBUX)
Tim Hortons (USA) (THI)
Yum! Brands (YUM)
American Eagle (AEO)
Gap, The (GPS)
Guess? (GES)
Limited Brands (LTD)
Nordstrom (JWN)
Ross Stores (ROST)
TJX Companies, The (TJX)
Urban Outfitters (URBN)
32.26
33.62
11.4
31.82
37.12
57
61.15
20.76
29.29
34.74
16.9
22.02
37.66
16.86
31.88
47.39
38.04
31.29
-54%
-55%
-86%
-70%
-64%
-20%
-35%
-66%
-32%
-38%
-59%
-57%
-73%
-65%
-79%
-54%
-53%
-61%
31%
10%
5%
126%
11%
15%
8%
1%
8%
16%
7%
2%
14%
30%
16%
2%
1%
22%
27
28
5
6
5
62
10
15
5
16
4
15
3
5
7
6
16
5
37
38
14
56
7
71
11
16
6
19
3
13
3
7
9
6
16
5
1.3x
1.4x
2.6x
.4x
3.2x
4.7x
3.2x
5.4x
4.9x
>9.9x
2.4x
3.2x
3.9x
2.9x
5.1x
5.5x
5.7x
4.6x
1.1
1.2
.9
.6
1.5
2.5
1.0
2.9
3.1
2.9
1.4
1.7
2.1
.9
1.2
2.2
1.9
3.4
1.0
1.0
.8
.6
1.4
2.6
.9
2.1
2.7
3.0
1.2
1.3
1.4
.8
.8
1.8
1.8
2.2
1.1
1.0
.7
.6
1.3
2.6
1.1
2.1
3.7
2.9
1.4
1.4
2.1
1.0
1.2
1.8
1.8
3.9
Dollar Tree (DLTR)

J.C. Penney Company (JCP)
Kohl's Corp. (KSS)
Macy's (M)
Sears Holdings (SHLD)
Target (TGT)
Wal-Mart (WMT)
Wal-mart de Mexico (WMMVY)
CVS Caremark Corp. (CVS)
Express Scripts (ESRX)
Medco Health Solutio (MHS)
Walgreen Company (WAG)
Companhia Brasileira (CBD)
Delhaize Group (ADR) (DEG)
J Sainsbury plc (ADR (JSAIY)
Koninklijke Ahold N. (AHONY)
Kroger (KR)
Mead Johnson (MJN)
Safeway (SWY)
SUPERVALU (SVU)
SYSCO Corp. (SYY)
48.3
34.11
55.01
18.03
68.09
48.79
50.11
37.65
35.98
78.93
55.42
34.5
54.84
70.48
21.83
12.31
20.72
40.08
19.51
15.46
25.67
-43%
-60%
-56%
-72%
-61%
-49%
-8%
-53%
-36%
-46%
-46%
-38%
-61%
-38%
-31%
-32%
-6%
-36%
-12%
-44%
-24%
7%
22%
3%
26%
60%
22%
27%
1%
8%
1%
2%
1%
1%
7%
26%
5%
40%
3%
40%
85%
36%
4
8
17
8
8
37
193
32
52
22
26
34
6
7
10
15
13
8
8
3
15
4
9
18
16
10
54
231
31
62
21
29
34
7
11
13
14
21
9
13
11
17
3.3x
1.8x
2.4x
1.7x
.9x
2.5x
2.9x
6.0x
1.4x
7.0x
4.6x
2.4x
2.1x
1.2x
1.4x
2.5x
2.3x
n/m
1.2x
1.2x
4.4x
1.8
.7
1.4
.7
.3
1.0
1.4
3.8
.9
2.2
1.6
1.2
.9
.8
1.0
.8
.9
4.9
.8
.7
1.5
1.6
.5
1.1
.6
.3
.9
1.4
2.8
.8
3.3
1.4
1.1
.6
.7
.9
.5
.9
4.3
.8
.6
1.3
1.6
.5
1.4
.5
.4
1.1
1.7
3.9
1.0
4.1
1.5
1.3
.6
.7
1.0
1.0
1.2
-.1
.9
.6
1.9
Company (Ticker)
52-Week
MV
EV
Price/
Most
24
September 21, 2009
Tobin's Q
to Reach
Price
Sector
Industry
Retail (Home
Improvement)
Retail (Online)
Retail (Specialty)
Retail
(Technology)
Schools
Waste Management
Services
Technology
Communications
Equipment
Computer
Hardware
Computer
Networks
Computer
Peripherals
Computer
Services
Last
Last
($)
Low
High
($bn)
($bn)
Book
Recent
Quarter
Year
Tesco PLC (ADR) (TSCDY)

Whole Foods Market (WFMI)
19.27
28.6
-37%
-75%
16%
5%
51
4
71
5
2.4x
2.5x
1.0
1.3
1.2
1.0
1.7
1.1
Home Depot, The (HD)

Lowe's Companies (LOW)
Sherwin-Williams (SHW)
eBay (EBAY)
Advance Auto Parts (AAP)
Amazon.com (AMZN)
AutoNation (AN)
AutoZone (AZO)
Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY)
CarMax (KMX)
Costco Wholesale (COST)
Family Dollar Stores (FDO)
O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY)
Staples (SPLS)
Tiffany & Co. (TIF)
28.23
21.97
62.04
24.34
39.28
90.28
17.92
152.09
39.28
19.06
57.55
26.42
37.42
23.29
38.76
-40%
-41%
-32%
-59%
-39%
-62%
-78%
-44%
-59%
-70%
-47%
-25%
-47%
-42%
-57%
5%
25%
5%
2%
21%
5%
19%
12%
1%
9%
23%
32%
15%
13%
16%
48
32
7
31
4
39
3
8
10
4
25
4
5
17
5
56
36
8
29
4
36
4
10
9
4
24
4
6
19
5
2.5x
1.7x
4.8x
2.6x
3.0x
>9.9x
1.4x
n/m
3.3x
2.6x
2.6x
2.6x
2.1x
2.8x
2.9x
1.2
1.0
1.7
1.7
1.2
4.9
.8
2.0
1.9
1.4
1.2
1.2
1.1
1.3
1.2
1.1
.9
1.5
1.3
1.3
5.0
.7
2.1
1.5
1.1
1.0
1.4
1.2
1.2
.7
1.1
1.2
1.4
1.7
1.3
4.7
.4
1.9
1.7
1.0
1.4
1.3
1.0
1.2
1.1
Best Buy (BBY)

GameStop (GME)
Apollo Group (APOL)
DeVry (DV)
ITT Educational (ESI)
Pearson PLC (ADR) (PSO)
37.9
26.79
69.02
52.5
103.26
12.5
-57%
-37%
-30%
-27%
-39%
-35%
29%
55%
30%
23%
30%
1%
16
4
11
4
4
10
17
5
10
4
4
13
2.7x
1.7x
>9.9x
4.0x
>9.9x
1.5x
1.0
1.1
4.5
2.6
6.2
.8
.9
.9
4.4
2.3
6.0
.6
1.0
1.5
5.6
3.4
6.4
.8
Rentokil Initial plc (RTOKY)

Republic Services (RSG)
Sims Metal Managemen (SMS)
Stericycle (SRCL)
Waste Management (WM)
9.54
27.3
20.44
48.03
30.75
-78%
-45%
-66%
-8%
-28%
0%
34%
34%
37%
18%
3
10
4
4
15
5
18
5
23
n/m
1.4x
n/m
5.3x
2.5x
1.7
.9
n/a
2.6
1.1
1.3
.9
n/a
2.9
1.1
1.4
1.6
n/a
3.4
1.2
Alcatel-Lucent (ALU)
Corning (GLW)
Harris Corp. (HRS)
Juniper Networks (JNPR)
Motorola (MOT)
Nokia (NOK)
QUALCOMM (QCOM)
Research In Motion L (RIMM)
4.32
15.27
36.57
27.62
8.96
15.7
44.46
83.62
-75%
-52%
-30%
-55%
-67%
-46%
-37%
-58%
5%
16%
42%
1%
5%
37%
11%
29%
10
24
5
14
21
58
74
47
10
23
6
13
18
56
64
46
1.7x
1.7x
2.6x
2.5x
2.2x
3.1x
3.9x
7.3x
.3
1.1
1.2
1.8
.7
1.0
2.5
5.0
.2
1.3
.8
1.5
.5
.9
2.7
4.6
.3
1.2
1.2
1.3
.3
1.2
3.2
6.2
185.02
16.69
46.15
122.11
9.14
-58%
-53%
-45%
-43%
-72%
1%
10%
7%
2%
3%
166
33
109
160
7
142
24
113
177
5
6.4x
7.1x
2.6x
>9.9x
2.1x
3.1
.9
1.0
1.7
.6
2.5
.9
.9
1.5
.6
2.6
1.1
1.2
1.5
.3
Dassault Systemes S. (DASTY)

NetApp (NTAP)
55.8
24.75
-44%
-58%
5%
1%
7
8
6
7
3.3x
4.3x
1.8
1.4
1.1
1.1
2.0
1.2
Canon (CAJ)
Cisco Systems (CSCO)
Lenovo Group Limited (LNVGY)
Logitech Internation (LOGI)
40.49
23.4
8.97
18.36
-48%
-42%
-63%
-59%
11%
4%
47%
35%
50
135
4
3
43
111
3
3
1.7x
3.5x
3.2x
3.4x
.9
1.7
.7
1.8
.7
1.4
.6
1.3
.7
2.0
.5
2.3
Affiliated Computer (ACS)
46.43
-25%
13%
1.7x
.8
.8
1.0
Company (Ticker)
Apple (AAPL)
Dell (DELL)
Hewlett-Packard (HPQ)
International Busine (IBM)
Sun Microsystems (JAVA)
52-Week
MV
EV
Price/
Most
25
September 21, 2009
Tobin's Q
to Reach
Price
Sector
Industry
Computer
Storage Devices
Electronic
Instruments
Office
Equipment
Semiconductors
Last
Last
($)
Low
High
($bn)
($bn)
Book
Recent
Quarter
Year
18.77
63.96
399.98
70.93
11.18
52.4
49.43
35.3
491.46
52.76
45.24
163.78
54.2
22.1
26.38
16.89
-51%
-64%
-75%
-57%
-41%
-54%
-44%
-57%
-50%
-45%
-67%
-72%
-64%
-70%
-58%
-70%
26%
3%
2%
0%
0%
1%
8%
0%
1%
14%
4%
3%
20%
5%
6%
2%
3
3
14
6
3
8
8
14
156
3
6
7
4
24
5
25
3
6
13
6
3
10
11
19
136
3
5
7
3
45
4
24
1.9x
>9.9x
>9.9x
4.0x
1.6x
1.3x
2.7x
1.8x
4.9x
3.4x
6.2x
8.2x
5.3x
5.4x
5.3x
7.6x
1.4
1.1
>9.9
2.7
.9
.5
1.2
.5
3.8
2.2
4.6
4.5
2.6
.9
2.6
4.1
1.5
.9
>9.9
2.4
.8
.5
1.1
.4
3.4
2.1
3.7
3.4
2.9
.8
2.4
2.8
1.6
1.4
>9.9
1.8
.9
.5
1.2
.3
3.8
2.3
2.7
1.8
1.8
.7
2.3
2.6
Brocade Comms (BRCD)

EMC Corp. (EMC)
SanDisk Corp. (SNDK)
Seagate Technology (STX)
Western Digital Corp (WDC)
7.89
17
22.84
15.26
36.22
-74%
-51%
-78%
-80%
-74%
14%
2%
3%
2%
2%
3
34
5
8
8
4
30
5
9
7
2.0x
2.4x
1.6x
5.0x
2.5x
1.2
1.3
.9
1.2
1.3
1.2
1.0
.5
.9
1.0
.9
1.0
.5
.6
.8
ABB (ABB)
Agilent Technologies (A)
Amphenol Corp. (APH)
Arrow Electronics (ARW)
AU Optronics Corp. (AUO)
Avnet (AVT)
Cooper Industries, L (CBE)
Eaton Corp. (ETN)
Energizer Holdings (ENR)
Furukawa Electric (FUWAY)
LG Display Co Ltd. ( (LPL)
Molexorporated (MOLX)
Nidec Corp. (ADR) (NJ)
Rockwell Automation (ROK)
TDK Corp. (TTDKY)
Tyco Electronics Ltd (TEL)
20.48
28.37
39.37
28.51
9.89
26.22
37.71
59.76
66.54
48
14.18
20.36
20.23
44.19
61.6
23.8
-56%
-58%
-53%
-59%
-51%
-55%
-50%
-50%
-54%
-46%
-62%
-52%
-60%
-60%
-57%
-69%
8%
16%
19%
12%
20%
10%
25%
19%
35%
0%
12%
31%
1%
2%
3%
29%
47
10
7
3
9
4
6
10
5
3
10
4
11
6
8
11
41
10
7
4
12
4
7
13
7
7
11
3
11
7
9
12
3.7x
3.9x
4.5x
1.2x
1.1x
1.4x
2.3x
1.5x
2.6x
2.1x
1.5x
1.7x
3.5x
3.9x
1.4x
1.5x
1.2
1.5
2.3
.3
.8
.4
1.0
.7
1.0
.6
.7
1.0
1.5
1.4
.6
.6
.9
1.1
1.9
.2
.7
.2
.9
.6
.9
.4
.7
.6
1.0
1.0
.4
.5
1.1
1.2
2.4
.2
.6
.2
1.1
.6
1.1
.4
.7
.8
1.0
1.0
.3
.6
25.44
73.1
9.48
5.7
3.95
27.21
20.48
27.28
13.03
29.33
29.98
36.2
156.15
7.37
-31%
-43%
-57%
-72%
-66%
-61%
-37%
-44%
-45%
-57%
-57%
-65%
-45%
-83%
57%
6%
38%
5%
5%
0%
11%
9%
26%
4%
2%
8%
60%
10%
5
11
8
4
4
5
6
8
17
13
15
3
13
6
10
16
16
7
5
4
5
7
15
12
13
3
13
7
n/m
1.0x
1.2x
n/m
2.2x
2.8x
6.7x
3.2x
2.5x
5.1x
3.9x
2.7x
5.8x
3.4x
1.1
.4
.6
.8
1.1
1.7
2.6
1.9
1.4
2.2
2.7
2.0
4.3
.7
1.0
.4
.5
.6
.9
.8
2.0
2.0
1.1
1.4
2.3
1.6
5.5
.4
1.2
.3
.6
.7
.8
.6
2.7
2.0
1.5
.9
1.7
1.2
8.7
.3
Company (Ticker)
Akamai Technologies (AKAM)
Alliance Data Sys. (ADS)
Baidu.com (BIDU)
Cerner Corp. (CERN)
CGI Group (USA) (GIB)
Computer Sciences Co (CSC)
Fiserv (FISV)
Fujitsu Limited (ADR (FJTSY)
Google (GOOG)
IHS (IHS)
NetEase.com (NTES)
priceline.comorporat (PCLN)
Shanda Interactive (SNDA)
SOFTBANK CORP. (USA) (SFTBF)
Teradata Corp. (TDC)
Wipro Limited (ADR) (WIT)
Pitney Bowes (PBI)

Ricoh Company Ltd. ( (RICOY)
Xerox Corp. (XRX)
Advanced Micro (AMD)
Advanced Semi (ASX)
Advantest (ATE)
Altera Corp. (ALTR)
Analog Devices (ADI)
Applied Materials (AMAT)
ASML Holding N.V. (ASML)
Broadcom (BRCM)
Cree (CREE)
First Solar (FSLR)
Flextronics (FLEX)
52-Week
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EV
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Tobin's Q
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Price
Sector
Industry
Software &
Programming
Technical
Last
Last
($)
Low
High
($bn)
($bn)
Book
Recent
Quarter
Year
Infineon Tech (IFNNY)

Intel (INTC)
KLA-Tencor Corp. (KLAC)
Kyocera (KYO)
Lam Research Corp. (LRCX)
Linear Technology Co (LLTC)
LSI Corp. (LSI)
Marvell Technology G (MRVL)
Maxim Integrated (MXIM)
MEMC Electronic (WFR)
Microchip Technology (MCHP)
Micron Technology (MU)
National Semiconduct (NSM)
NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA)
ON Semiconductor Cor (ONNN)
Siliconware Precisio (SPIL)
STMicroelectronics N (STM)
SunPower Corp. (SPWRA)
Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM)
Texas Instrumentsorp (TXN)
United Microelectron (UMC)
Xilinx (XLNX)
5.25
19.56
35.54
89.37
34.07
26.69
5.45
16.07
18.4
18.94
27.11
8.2
14.76
15.22
8.27
7.13
9.67
33.09
10.87
24.06
3.68
22.81
-91%
-38%
-58%
-49%
-57%
-34%
-57%
-72%
-42%
-47%
-40%
-81%
-39%
-62%
-72%
-56%
-61%
-44%
-47%
-44%
-60%
-37%
57%
6%
4%
0%
4%
23%
15%
4%
6%
84%
19%
5%
26%
9%
10%
15%
30%
223%
10%
5%
4%
12%
4
109
6
16
4
6
4
10
6
4
5
7
3
8
3
4
8
3
56
30
10
6
4
99
5
12
4
6
3
9
5
3
4
9
4
7
4
4
9
3
49
28
8
5
1.7x
2.8x
2.8x
1.1x
3.0x
n/m
2.7x
2.6x
2.2x
2.0x
3.4x
1.5x
>9.9x
3.7x
4.1x
2.6x
1.2x
2.4x
4.3x
3.3x
1.6x
3.3x
.7
2.0
1.4
.5
1.8
4.5
1.0
1.9
1.4
1.1
1.5
.7
1.9
2.1
1.7
1.8
.5
1.3
2.9
2.3
1.2
1.8
.5
1.7
.9
.3
1.2
3.8
.7
1.4
1.1
1.1
1.2
.5
1.7
1.5
1.4
1.5
.3
1.1
2.5
2.0
.8
1.6
.3
1.8
.9
.3
1.0
4.7
.7
1.0
1.1
1.8
2.1
.2
2.1
1.1
1.2
1.3
.5
3.0
2.4
1.9
.5
2.0
Activision Blizzard (ATVI)

Adobe Systems (ADBE)
Amdocs (DOX)
ANSYS (ANSS)
Autodesk (ADSK)
BMC Software (BMC)
CA (CA)
Check Point Software (CHKP)
Citrix Systems (CTXS)
Cognizant Technology (CTSH)
Electronic Arts (ERTS)
Infosys Technologies (INFY)
International Game T (IGT)
Intuit (INTU)
Lender Processing Se (LPS)
McAfee (MFE)
Microsoft (MSFT)
Nuance Communication (NUAN)
Oracle (ORCL)
Red Hat (RHT)
Rovi Corp. (ROVI)
SAIC (SAI)
salesforce.com (CRM)
SAP (SAP)
Symantec Corp. (SYMC)
Synopsys (SNPS)
Trend Microorporated (TMICY)
Verisign (VRSN)
VMware (VMW)
AMETEK (AME)
11.79
32.95
26.65
38.54
23.54
38.18
22.51
27.28
37.22
38.49
18.71
48.68
21.83
27.77
38.21
42.55
25.26
14.7
21.62
25.84
31.59
17.71
58.17
50.38
15.65
22.47
37.15
23.26
40.77
35.5
-31%
-52%
-45%
-53%
-50%
-46%
-47%
-38%
-49%
-63%
-24%
-57%
-69%
-27%
-60%
-42%
-41%
-58%
-36%
-71%
-73%
-10%
-64%
-42%
-36%
-38%
-44%
-30%
-58%
-31%
47%
26%
9%
15%
59%
2%
3%
5%
3%
1%
141%
2%
7%
15%
1%
7%
10%
6%
6%
1%
3%
17%
4%
17%
34%
1%
10%
21%
1%
41%
15
17
5
3
5
7
12
6
7
11
6
28
6
9
4
7
225
4
108
5
3
4
7
61
13
3
5
4
16
4
12
15
4
3
4
6
11
5
6
10
4
25
8
9
5
6
199
4
103
4
3
4
7
60
12
2
4
4
14
5
1.3x
3.7x
1.8x
2.8x
3.9x
6.2x
2.6x
2.7x
3.3x
5.0x
2.0x
6.7x
6.6x
3.5x
>9.9x
3.5x
5.7x
2.1x
4.1x
4.4x
2.2x
1.7x
9.1x
5.8x
3.1x
1.9x
4.6x
6.7x
6.9x
2.7x
.9
2.6
1.0
1.9
2.1
1.9
1.1
1.8
2.3
3.7
.9
5.2
1.8
1.9
2.2
1.7
2.7
1.4
2.0
2.5
1.5
.6
4.6
2.8
1.4
.9
1.9
1.6
3.6
1.4
1.0
2.1
.8
1.6
1.6
1.7
.9
1.6
2.1
2.7
1.1
4.2
1.4
1.8
1.8
1.8
2.8
1.1
2.3
1.9
1.1
1.4
3.2
2.1
1.4
.8
1.7
1.4
2.4
1.4
>9.9
3.5
1.1
2.9
2.9
1.5
1.1
1.8
1.7
2.7
1.6
4.0
1.4
2.3
1.3
1.5
3.2
1.2
2.2
1.3
.6
1.6
4.7
3.2
1.0
.9
2.1
2.0
2.9
1.6
Company (Ticker)
52-Week
MV
EV
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September 21, 2009
Tobin's Q
to Reach
Price
Sector
Transportation
Industry
Instruments
Air Courier
Airline
Misc.
Transportation
Railroads
Utilities
Trucking
Electric Utilities
Last
Last
($)
Low
High
($bn)
($bn)
Book
Recent
Quarter
Year
Beckman Coulter (BEC)

Danaher Corp. (DHR)
Garmin (GRMN)
Illumina (ILMN)
Millipore Corp. (MIL)
Mindray Medical Inte (MR)
Pall Corp. (PLL)
Qiagen NV (QGEN)
Roper Industries (ROP)
Thermo Fisher Scient (TMO)
Waters Corp. (WAT)
FedEx Corp. (FDX)
TNT N.V. (ADR) (TNTTY)
United Parcel Servic (UPS)
Air France - KLM (AFLYY)
British Airways (BAIRY)
Delta Air Lines (DAL)
Lan Airlines S.A. (A (LFL)
Lufthansa (DLAKY)
Ryanair Holdings (RYAAY)
Southwest Airlines C (LUV)
69.6
68.15
36.66
41.22
72.43
31.88
34.18
22.74
51.78
44.87
55.32
76.17
27.62
58.77
17.9
38.61
8.96
12.83
17.83
29.87
9.68
-48%
-31%
-61%
-54%
-40%
-61%
-47%
-45%
-33%
-41%
-46%
-55%
-52%
-35%
-56%
-57%
-61%
-46%
-46%
-47%
-49%
4%
16%
6%
8%
1%
20%
5%
3%
36%
34%
12%
27%
22%
19%
35%
6%
41%
6%
26%
10%
68%
5
22
7
5
4
3
4
5
5
18
5
24
10
58
5
4
7
4
8
9
7
5
23
6
5
5
3
4
5
6
19
5
24
12
66
10
8
19
6
9
10
8
3.0x
2.1x
3.0x
5.5x
2.8x
6.3x
3.6x
2.9x
2.2x
1.2x
7.2x
1.7x
3.5x
8.6x
.3x
1.2x
7.1x
3.9x
.9x
2.4x
1.4x
1.1
1.2
1.9
3.1
1.6
3.9
1.3
1.7
1.3
.8
2.8
1.0
1.3
2.0
.3
.5
.6
1.3
.4
1.1
.7
1.0
1.2
1.2
3.1
1.6
3.6
1.1
1.5
1.2
.8
2.9
.7
1.1
1.7
.3
.3
.5
1.3
.3
1.1
.6
1.2
1.3
1.9
4.6
1.6
5.0
1.3
1.5
1.5
1.0
2.7
.9
1.2
1.9
.4
.5
.4
1.4
.4
.9
.5
C.H. Robinson (CHRW)

Expeditors Internati (EXPD)
Burlington Northern (BNI)
Can. Nat. Railway (CNI)
Can. Pacific Railway (CP)
CSX Corp. (CSX)
Norfolk Southern Cor (NSC)
Union Pacific Corp. (UNP)
J.B. Hunt Transport (JBHT)
AES Corp. (AES)
Allegheny Energy (AYE)
Am. Electric Power (AEP)
Ameren Corp. (AEE)
Calpine (CPN)
CenterPoint Energy (CNP)
CLP Holdings Limited (CLPHY)
Co. Energetica Minas (CIG)
Companhia Paranaense (ELP)
Consolidated Edison (ED)
Constellation Energy (CEG)
CPFL Energia S.A. (A (CPL)
Dominion Resources (D)
DTE Energy Company (DTE)
Duke Energy Corp. (DUK)
E.ON AG (ADR) (EONGY)
Edison International (EIX)
EDP-Energias de Port (EDPFY)
Empresa Nacional de (EOC)
Enersis (ENI)
Entergy (ETR)
58.69
37
83.91
51.02
49.03
45.26
46.34
62.4
32.33
14.39
27.64
32.06
26.05
12.24
12.49
6.71
15.28
17.37
41.48
32.57
53.56
34.33
35.25
15.96
42.4
34.99
45.27
47.53
18.65
80.89
-38%
-36%
-39%
-42%
-49%
-54%
-42%
-47%
-44%
-67%
-26%
-25%
-25%
-61%
-32%
-20%
-51%
-55%
-22%
-54%
-35%
-21%
-34%
-27%
-47%
-34%
-39%
-40%
-46%
-26%
2%
11%
31%
8%
20%
40%
57%
28%
22%
5%
45%
30%
62%
31%
22%
23%
7%
0%
12%
2%
14%
30%
25%
20%
24%
20%
1%
21%
8%
17%
10
8
29
24
8
18
17
31
4
10
5
15
6
5
5
16
9
5
11
7
9
20
6
21
81
11
17
13
12
16
10
7
38
30
12
25
23
40
5
26
9
32
14
15
14
22
11
5
22
14
12
38
14
36
133
22
30
16
10
26
9.0x
5.4x
2.4x
2.4x
1.4x
2.1x
1.7x
2.0x
7.1x
2.2x
1.5x
1.2x
.8x
1.2x
2.0x
2.1x
2.4x
1.1x
1.2x
1.9x
2.9x
1.9x
.9x
1.0x
1.5x
1.2x
2.3x
3.9x
2.1x
1.8x
5.1
3.3
1.0
1.3
.9
.9
.9
1.0
2.6
.7
.8
.7
.6
.7
.8
1.3
1.4
.7
.6
.7
1.3
.8
.6
.6
.6
.5
.7
1.5
.5
.7
4.7
3.0
.9
1.1
.7
.8
.8
.9
2.5
.6
.7
.7
.5
.6
.7
1.3
1.4
.6
.6
.6
1.3
.8
.5
.6
.5
.5
.6
1.5
.5
.7
4.1
2.9
1.2
1.3
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.2
2.6
.6
.9
.7
.7
.7
.8
1.8
1.7
.6
.7
.4
1.4
1.0
.6
.6
.6
.6
.9
1.5
.7
.8
Company (Ticker)
52-Week
MV
EV
Price/
Most
28
September 21, 2009
Tobin's Q
to Reach
Price
Sector
Industry
Natural Gas
Utilities
Water Utilities
Last
Last
($)
Low
High
($bn)
($bn)
Book
Recent
Quarter
Year
Exelon Corp. (EXC)

FirstEnergy (FE)
FPL Group (FPL)
Huaneng Power Intern (HNP)
International Power (IPRPY)
Korea Electric Power (KEP)
National Grid plc (A (NGG)
Northeast Utilities (NU)
NRG Energy (NRG)
NSTAR (NST)
OGE Energy (OGE)
Pepco Holdings (POM)
PG&E Corp. (PCG)
Pinnacle West Capita (PNW)
PPL Corp. (PPL)
Progress Energy (PGN)
Public Service (PEG)
SCANA Corp. (SCG)
Southern Company, Th (SO)
Spectra Energy Corp. (SE)
TransAlta Corp. (USA (TAC)
United Utilities Gro (UUGRY)
Wisconsin Energy Cor (WEC)
Xcel Energy (XEL)
51.37
46.98
55.03
29.55
48.83
14.21
50.59
24.47
27.9
32.45
33.07
15.19
41.06
33.03
30.64
39.11
31.99
35.52
32.03
19.5
20.22
15.19
45.26
20.02
-25%
-25%
-39%
-44%
-46%
-52%
-28%
-30%
-48%
-21%
-41%
-34%
-35%
-32%
-21%
-20%
-31%
-27%
-17%
-43%
-31%
-18%
-23%
-23%
35%
53%
10%
18%
42%
33%
33%
14%
18%
23%
1%
58%
4%
15%
31%
17%
22%
24%
25%
43%
57%
71%
3%
12%
34
14
23
9
7
18
25
4
7
3
3
3
15
3
12
11
16
4
25
13
4
5
5
9
45
28
40
25
17
40
69
10
15
6
6
10
27
8
19
23
25
9
46
22
7
14
10
18
2.8x
1.6x
1.8x
1.6x
1.2x
.5x
3.8x
1.2x
1.0x
1.9x
1.6x
.8x
1.5x
1.0x
2.1x
1.2x
1.9x
1.3x
1.8x
2.0x
1.7x
2.2x
1.5x
1.3x
.9
.8
.9
1.0
.7
.5
.9
.7
.5
.8
.8
.5
.7
.6
.8
.7
.8
.7
.9
1.0
.9
.9
.8
.7
.9
.8
.9
1.0
.7
.4
.9
.6
.5
.7
.8
.5
.6
.6
.9
.7
.8
.7
.9
.9
.9
.9
.7
.7
1.2
1.0
.8
.9
1.0
.4
1.2
.7
.6
.8
.8
.5
.6
.6
.9
.7
.9
.8
1.0
1.1
1.2
.8
.8
.7
Boardwalk Pipeline (BWP)

El Paso Corp. (EP)
Energen (EGN)
Equitable Resources (EQT)
Hong Kong and China (HOKCY)
Kinder Morgan Energy (KMP)
MDU Resources Group (MDU)
National Fuel Gas Co (NFG)
NiSource (NI)
ONEOK (OKE)
Oneok Partners LP (OKS)
Sempra Energy (SRE)
TransCanada Corp. (U (TRP)
American Water Works (AWK)
Companhia de Saneame (SBS)
25.3
10.22
44.85
41.99
2.45
53.94
20.56
47.82
13.48
36.76
53.15
50.92
30.97
20.25
39.08
-45%
-49%
-49%
-51%
-54%
-34%
-38%
-44%
-42%
-51%
-36%
-33%
-35%
-20%
-64%
3%
47%
16%
17%
1%
4%
46%
5%
20%
25%
7%
14%
20%
10%
2%
5
7
3
5
16
15
4
4
4
4
5
12
21
4
4
8
21
4
7
17
26
5
5
10
9
9
19
38
9
8
1.4x
3.2x
1.6x
2.5x
4.0x
2.5x
1.6x
2.3x
.8x
1.8x
1.7x
1.5x
1.5x
.9x
.7x
1.2
1.0
1.0
1.2
2.3
1.4
.9
1.1
.6
.7
1.2
.7
.9
.7
.7
1.1
.9
.8
1.1
2.0
1.3
.8
.9
.5
.7
1.1
.7
.9
.7
.6
.8
.9
1.3
1.4
2.9
1.3
1.0
1.0
.6
.7
1.1
.8
1.1
.7
.6
Company (Ticker)
52-Week
MV
EV
Price/
Most
29
September 21, 2009
BACKGROUND
Tobins Q Economic Rationale
Tobin conceptualized the Q ratio as a measure of over- or undervaluation of publicly traded
assets. In its simplest form, Q equals market value divided by replacement cost.
If the market value of an asset exceeds the cost of replacing it (Q>1), an incentive exists
to recreate the asset and immediately sell it in the market at a premium to cost. As a result,
incremental real investment will tend to force high Q ratios back down to parity (Q1).
No straightforward balancing mechanism exists in the case of low Q ratios, i.e., when
the market is valuing an asset below its replacement cost (Q<1). When Q is less than
parity, the market seems to be saying that the deployed real assets will not earn a sufficient
rate of return and that, therefore, the owners of such assets must accept a discount to the
replacement value if they desire to sell their assets in the market. If the real assets can be
sold off at replacement cost, for example via an asset liquidation, such an action would be
beneficial to shareholders because it would drive the Q ratio back up toward parity (Q1).
In the case of the stock market as a whole, rather than a single firm, the conclusion that
assets should be liquidated does not typically apply. A low Q ratio for the entire market
does not mean that blanket redeployment of resources across the economy will create
value. Instead, when market-wide Q is less than parity, investors are probably being overly
pessimistic about future asset returns.
James Tobin explained the concept of Q as follows:
The bottom line of monetary policy is its effect on capital
investment, in business plant and equipment, residences,
inventories, and consumer durable goods. The effect is not
well represented by the market interest rates usually cited, or
by quantities of money or credit. Our approach [the approach
of James Tobin, William Brainard and other colleagues at
Yale] to monetary economics and macroeconomics led us
naturally to a different measure, closer to investment
decisions. This has become known as Tobins q. It is the
ratio of the market valuation of capital assets to their
replacement costs, for example, the prices of existing houses
relative to the costs of building comparable new ones. For
corporate businesses, the market valuations are made in the
securities markets. It is common sense that the incentive to
make new capital investments is high when the securities
giving title to their future earnings can be sold for more than
the investment cost, i.e., when q exceeds one. We see the
reverse in takeovers of companies whose qs are less than one
it is cheaper to buy their productive assets by acquiring their
shares than to construct comparable facilities from scratch.
That is why in our models q is the link from the central bank
and the financial markets to the real economy. 1
1
Tobin, James, Volume 4: Essays in Economics: National and International, Cambridge, MA: MIT Press,
1996, pp. 14-15.
30
September 21, 2009
Tobin expounded on the adjustment mechanism associated with Q in his book Money, Credit,
and Capital:
old [i.e., existing] capital, adjusted for depreciation, and
new are perfect substitutes in production. Therefore they
should, as argued above, generally command the same price,
at least in equilibrium [i.e., Q should equal 1]. However, the
arbitrage necessary to maintain this parity does not operate
instantaneously. A boom in the stock market increases the
valuation of the plants and machines to which the owners of
common shares hold title. The prices of new plants and
machines do not rise as fast or as much. They will rise only as
new orders are placed, production is raised, and marginal costs
are increased. Meanwhile the discrepancy of market value
from reproduction cost, of q from 1, of the valuation of
existing capital from the price of new capital goods, works in
two ways to restore portfolio balance equilibrium
temporarily.
First, if the supply of currency is too large and that of
[tangible] capital too small, increasing the market valuation of
capital tends to correct the proportion by raising the share of
capital in private wealth. Second, an increase in the market
valuation of existing capital means a reduction in its market
return. Wealth owners will therefore be satisfied to hold a
smaller share of their wealth as capital. The marginal
productivity of capital is a technological fact and is not altered
by events in the stock market or other markets for used capital.
It is the value of the yield of a unit of capital. But if the market
price that must be paid to obtain the yield of a unit of capital
exceeds its replacement cost, the return on the market price is
smaller than the marginal productivity. Suppose that 100 units
of capital, value at reproduction cost, yield in productive use a
return of 10 per year. If the corresponding shares command
200 in the stock market, their market return is 5 percent
instead of 10 percent. All this can occur within the financial
and capital markets themselves, without any repercussions on
commodity prices, production, and employment.
A third way that equilibrium can be restored is that arbitrage
opportunities stimulateor in the opposite case deterthe
production of new capital goods. Discrepancy of market
valuation from reproduction cost, with the corresponding
discrepancy in the opposite direction of market return from
marginal productivity, cannot be a permanent equilibrator of
asset demands and supplies. The arbitrage opportunityfor
example, buy a machine for 100 and collect 200 by selling
shares in itwill presumably induce actions that tend
somehow to eliminate the discrepancy.
This third equilibrator mechanism is slower and more
fundamental. Any sustained and abnormal excess of the
market value of capital goods over their costs of reproduction
is an incentive to production of new capital goods. Or, to put
the same point another way, capital formation is stimulated
31
September 21, 2009
when the market return from owning capital goods is smaller

than their marginal productivity. An increase in the physical
stock of capital may gradually take the place of the previous
inflation valuation of the smaller existing stock. Moreover,
relative abundance of capital will drive its actual marginal
productivity down toward its market return. In this way a
portfolio balance that initially required a large discrepancy of
market value over reproduction cost can be maintained while
the discrepancy is being eliminated. In a sense the stock
market acts out in advance and in purely financial terms the
subsequent and much slower adjustment of the physical stock
of capital an its basic return.
A fourth possibility of adjustment is change in the expected
real return on currency. If the supply of currency is excessive,
one way to make wealth owners content is to increase the
expected return on currency, to make them expect price
deflation or slower inflation. Note, however, that the natural
reaction to an excess supply of currency is to raise prices, as
people try to buy capital. As already observed, the higher level
of prices works in an equilibrating direction. But the rising
prices themselves, and expectations of future price inflation,
work the other way, damping the demand for currency an
increasing demand for capital.
Thus the interaction of asset demands and asset supplies can
be an important determinant of the course of prices and
economic activity 1
A critique of Tobins Q may include the following observations:

Q may be less relevant in an economy increasingly driven by intellectual property. As
the Q ratio does not consider the replacement cost of intangible assets (although it does
include software), critics have pointed out that a fair value of Q should be higher today
than several decades ago. We agree that an equilibrium value of Q is likely increasing
slowly over time, but we also note that Q remains an important and reliable indicator of
asset overvaluation. The Q ratio sent a strikingly bearish signal at the height of the Internet
bubble, despite some critics observation at the time that the Q ratio should not have been
relied upon because it excluded intangible assets.
The economic rationale behind the Q ratio is sound, but the underlying adjustment
mechanism may take longer than most equity market investors can tolerate. We agree
with the observation that Tobins Q should not be used a short-term market timing tool.
The Q ratio derives its mean-reverting property from processes that take place in the real
economy and, therefore, do not happen overnight. As a result, it may take years for the
market value of equities to align closely with levels suggested by the Q ratio. However, at
extreme levels of Q below 0.40 or above 1.50 Qs short-term signaling power
increases markedly. As a result, in times of extreme market dislocation, the Q ratio may be
able to provide some guidance even to investors with relatively short time horizons.
Tobin, James, Money, Credit, and Capital, Boston, MA: Irwin McGraw-Hill, 1998, pp. 106-107.
32
September 21, 2009
INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT
Warren Buffetts Intuitive Use of the Q Ratio
Buffett is famous for advocating investment in businesses with wide moats, i.e., with sustainable
competitive advantage. As the following quote from Buffett shows, this idea dovetails nicely with
the concept of replacement value (Tobins Q). The cost of replacing a business with a wide moat
would likely be significantly higher than the GAAP book value of that firm. Said Buffett,
The test of a franchise is what a smart guy with a lot of
money could do to it if he tried. If you gave me a billion
dollars, and first draft pick of fifty business managers
throughout the United States, I could absolutely cream both
the business world and the journalistic world. If you said, Go
take the Wall Street Journal apart, I would hand back the
billion dollars. Reluctantly, but I would hand it back to you.
The real test of a business is how much damage a competitor
can do, even if he is stupid about returns. The trick is to find
the ones that havent been identified by someone else. 1
By citing the Wall Street Journal as an example of a company with a wide moat, Buffett may have
wanted to point out that some companies have built value over time, value that cannot be equaled
even if significant capital is deployed to create a replica. Those companies have components of
value into which financial capital is not readily convertible. In other words, those aspects of value
(e.g., reputation, long-term customer contracts) have evolved over time or for other non-financial
reasons and can only be reasonably replaced through similar processes. Most of Buffetts equity
investments are good examples of companies with wide moats, including Coca-Cola, GEICO,
Wells Fargo, Gillette, and American Express. We would argue that the following companies also
have wide moats and would be great long-term investments at the appropriate price: Sony, due to
its brand and design leadership in consumer electronics, despite high competition and pricing
pressure in its industry; BMW, due to a defensible niche and intensely loyal customer base,
despite tough industry conditions; and eBay, due to large barriers to entry and scale advantage.
A note on using replacement value as a basis for investment decisions: It is a necessary but not
sufficient condition that the replacement cost of a company exceed the equity market value.
If replacement value is below market value, competitors are likely to enter the industry. If
replacement value exceeds market value, the investor should verify that returns on invested capital
exceed the cost of capital. There is no use investing in a company with a high replacement value if
no one would want to replace it anyway because of unattractive industry conditions.
Train, John, Money Masters of Our Time (New York, New York: HarperCollins Publishers, 2000): 16-17.
33
September 21, 2009
MECHANICS
Calculating Tobins Q
Tobins Q is impossible to calculate with precision, as the concept of replacement value is
inherently subjective. For example, rational investors are likely to disagree on the replacement
value of The Coca-Cola Company, as investors will have divergent views on the value of Cokes
brand equity. As a result, the calculation of Q requires a number of estimates and approximations.
In this report, we focus on estimating Q for the market as a whole rather than any single stock.
The data used to estimate Q can be found in the Federal Reserve Boards Z.1 statistical
release entitled Flow of Funds Accounts of the United States. Before proceeding with this brief
tutorial, we suggest that you access the FRBs website and print out the relevant page from the
latest Z.1 release. To do so, simply go to http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/z1/ and click on
the date of the current Z.1 release. Then click on PDF file labeled Balance sheet tables. The file
will contain several pages, but you only need the page entitled B.102 Balance Sheet of Nonfarm
Nonfinancial Corporate Business. All references below to lines that contain certain data relate to
line numbers in the B.102 table. For your convenience, we have reproduced on the next page the
data used to calculate Q from 1945 thru 2008.
Q = (market value of debt & equities net liquid assets land value) /
replacement cost of structures, equipment & software, and inventories,
where
The market value of debt can be estimated by using book value of debt as a proxy for
market value; book value of debt outstanding in any particular year is the sum of the
following line items contained in balance sheet B.102 of statistical release Z.1: Municipal
Securities (line 24), Corporate Bonds (line 25), and Mortgages (line 28). 1
The market value of equities is found in line 35 of B.102. Equity market value can be
updated through the present by adjusting the value provided in the Z.1 statistical release
to reflect the subsequent change in a major market index, such as the S&P 500 Index.
Net liquid assets = total financial assets (total liabilities municipal securities
corporate bonds mortgages) = line 6 (line 21 line 24 line 25 line 28)
Land value is approximated as the market value of real estate the replacement cost of
residential and nonresidential structures, i.e., land value = line 3 line 33 line 34.
The replacement cost of structures, equipment & software, and inventories is the sum of
lines 4, 5, 33, and 34 of B.102.
1
It is possible to estimate the market value of debt more accurately than by using book value as a proxy. In
order to do so, long-term debt can be modeled in the form of 10-year, Baa-grade bonds with semiannual
coupons. (Historical data on Moodys Baa interest rates is available on the FRBs website.) The market value
of the debt outstanding in year t would then equal the sum of the market values of debt issued in years t-9
through t. The book value of bonds issued in year t equals the book value of debt outstanding in year t
(calculated as noted in text above) minus the book value of debt outstanding in year t-1 plus the book value of
debt outstanding in year t-10. The market value of debt issued in year t can be estimated as the book value of
debt issued in year t. The market value of debt issued in years t-9 through t-1 can be estimated via a net
present value formula using the applicable Moodys Baa interest rates.
34
September 21, 2009
The table below shows data inputs for the following formula:
Q
market value / replacement cost =
(market value of debt & equities net liquid assets land value) /
replacement cost of structures, equipment & software, and inventories
mv / rc = (mvd + mve nla lv) / (rcs + rces + rci)
Calculating Tobins Q Key Variables, 19452009

q
Year
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
1Q09
2Q09
9/18/09
Tobin's
Q
0.48
0.39
0.31
0.29
0.30
0.35
0.38
0.36
0.34
0.46
0.55
0.55
0.47
0.62
0.68
0.68
0.80
0.75
0.80
0.90
0.97
0.80
0.96
1.05
0.82
0.75
0.80
0.90
0.61
0.29
0.49
0.53
0.43
0.40
0.41
0.46
0.38
0.41
0.45
0.40
0.49
0.54
0.53
0.55
0.64
0.63
0.84
0.96
1.03
0.96
1.14
1.26
1.45
1.61
1.88
1.40
1.18
0.82
1.07
1.07
0.91
0.91
0.89
0.55
0.61
0.73
0.86
mv
Market
Value
84
81
76
77
82
106
127
125
122
170
220
244
222
297
336
344
413
400
444
527
606
544
712
849
725
726
838
1,028
802
468
867
1,025
924
980
1,165
1,479
1,387
1,550
1,741
1,671
2,107
2,425
2,483
2,742
3,389
3,449
4,711
5,527
6,211
6,145
7,694
8,878
10,743
12,360
14,890
11,829
10,343
7,410
9,870
10,698
9,901
10,591
10,860
7,045
7,786
9,640
11,353
rc
Replacem ent
Cost
176
206
242
266
271
300
332
348
362
371
402
444
470
477
492
505
517
535
554
583
624
684
741
807
888
970
1,053
1,148
1,311
1,589
1,759
1,939
2,154
2,442
2,815
3,229
3,606
3,788
3,895
4,135
4,313
4,450
4,689
4,995
5,258
5,511
5,603
5,770
6,041
6,396
6,743
7,045
7,410
7,680
7,922
8,470
8,755
8,997
9,231
9,960
10,822
11,642
12,230
12,881
12,797
13,238
13,238
m vd
m ve
nla
lv
Book
Value of
Debt
33
35
39
45
49
52
56
62
66
71
76
80
88
96
100
105
111
119
126
134
142
157
176
192
208
232
255
275
315
338
373
403
447
487
516
544
588
619
682
765
868
1,001
1,127
1,242
1,333
1,387
1,454
1,506
1,585
1,625
1,738
1,864
2,017
2,269
2,553
2,754
3,165
3,349
3,593
3,728
3,994
4,308
4,727
4,997
5,108
5,198
Market
Value of
Equities
104
97
95
94
104
127
148
147
144
195
244
268
246
325
362
365
438
424
466
546
624
548
712
843
714
712
836
1,049
820
562
761
935
825
864
1,028
1,346
1,225
1,386
1,630
1,553
1,917
2,241
2,287
2,559
3,145
2,967
4,014
4,370
4,852
4,812
6,435
7,619
9,661
11,561
15,160
12,685
10,805
7,839
10,845
12,086
12,684
14,328
15,252
9,554
8,990
10,315
Net
Liquid
Assets
32
22
22
25
33
31
30
36
39
46
46
43
46
56
59
56
62
66
68
69
69
64
73
73
68
74
93
116
123
186
-8
9
7
-16
-67
-95
-143
-164
-86
-52
-61
46
120
188
153
102
171
82
211
259
448
572
677
902
2,239
2,915
3,255
3,368
3,834
4,310
4,758
5,264
6,017
6,158
5,916
5,874
Land
Value
21
29
37
37
38
42
47
48
50
50
55
62
66
68
68
70
74
77
80
84
91
97
104
114
130
144
161
180
210
245
275
304
341
387
445
506
569
619
658
700
739
772
811
871
936
803
586
267
14
34
31
33
257
568
583
695
373
411
734
806
2,019
2,781
3,102
1,347
395
0
rcs
rces
rci
Replacem ent Cost of

Structures
Equipm ent
Inventories
& Softw are
111
32
33
130
39
36
151
48
42
162
56
47
166
61
43
178
69
53
194
77
61
203
83
62
209
89
63
215
94
62
230
104
69
251
117
76
263
129
78
269
134
74
275
141
77
280
146
80
285
150
82
292
156
87
299
163
93
310
173
99
329
187
108
350
210
124
375
232
134
406
257
144
445
285
159
489
314
167
542
336
175
599
360
189
686
400
226
802
495
292
896
567
295
981
629
330
1,079
709
366
1,213
806
423
1,379
934
501
1,574
1,087
568
1,773
1,212
621
1,896
1,280
612
1,930
1,332
634
2,032
1,400
703
2,115
1,485
713
2,164
1,576
709
2,273
1,652
765
2,417
1,751
827
2,536
1,854
869
2,637
1,972
901
2,668
2,048
887
2,745
2,123
902
2,886
2,220
935
3,040
2,349
1,007
3,172
2,501
1,070
3,321
2,633
1,091
3,499
2,770
1,140
3,635
2,865
1,180
3,806
2,864
1,252
4,069
3,067
1,334
4,322
3,167
1,266
4,474
3,220
1,303
4,635
3,250
1,345
5,129
3,351
1,480
5,719
3,501
1,602
6,229
3,715
1,698
6,532
3,896
1,802
7,050
4,083
1,748
7,030
4,083
1,685
7,263
4,322
1,654
Source: The Federal Reserve, The Manual of Ideas.
35
September 21, 2009
SELECTED CHARTS AND HISTORICAL DATA

Tobins Q Tobin (New) Methodology, 19452009
2.0
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
Source: Federal Reserve, The Manual of Ideas.
36
September 21, 2009
Tobins Q Comparative Chart, 19002009

2.00
1.80
1.60
Tobin
(New)
1.40
Blanchard, Rhee,
and Summers
1.20
Tobin (Old)
1.00
0.80
0.60
0.40
0.20
1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
37
September 21, 2009
Tobins Q Comparative Chart, 19452009

2.00
1.80
1.60
Tobin
(New)
1.40
1.20
Blanchard, Rhee,
and Summers
1.00
Tobin (Old)
0.80
0.60
0.40
0.20
1945
1955
1965
1975
1985
1995
2005
38
September 21, 2009
Tobins Q Summary Data (incl. Unadjusted Blanchard, Rhee, Summers), 1900-2009 1, 2
Q average value: 0.76; Q median value: 0.75
Q minimum value: 0.29 (1948 and 1974); Q maximum value: 1.88 (1999)
Q less than 1.00 (number of years): 84; Q greater than 1.00 (number of years): 25
Year
1900
1901
1902
1903
1904
1905
1906
1907
1908
1909
1910
1911
1912
1913
1914
1915
1916
1917
1918
1919
1920
1921
1922
1923
1924
1925
1926
1927
1928
1929
1930
1931
1932
1933
1934
1935
1936
1937
1938
1939
Tobins
Q
0.61
0.81
1.24
0.99
1.09
1.28
1.19
0.90
0.93
1.06
1.03
0.97
0.99
0.98
0.79
0.81
0.78
0.54
0.40
0.39
0.39
0.36
0.47
0.50
0.50
0.63
0.68
0.79
0.98
1.26
1.11
0.71
0.36
0.57
0.91
1.17
1.28
1.15
0.89
1.08
Year
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
Tobins
Q
0.82
0.67
0.51
0.64
0.63
0.48
0.39
0.31
0.29
0.30
0.35
0.38
0.36
0.34
0.46
0.55
0.55
0.47
0.62
0.68
0.68
0.80
0.75
0.80
0.90
0.97
0.80
0.96
1.05
0.82
0.75
0.80
0.90
0.61
0.29
0.49
0.53
0.43
0.40
0.41
Year
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
9/18/09
Tobins
Q
0.46
0.38
0.41
0.45
0.40
0.49
0.54
0.53
0.55
0.64
0.63
0.84
0.96
1.03
0.96
1.14
1.26
1.45
1.61
1.88
1.40
1.18
0.82
1.07
1.07
0.91
0.91
0.89
0.55
0.86
Data shows estimated Tobins Q ratio at each yearend, unless otherwise noted.
Data from 1900-1944 is derived from Blanchard, Rhee, Summers series of Q estimates; data since 1945
represents Tobins Q estimates based on Tobins Q (new) methodology.
2
39
September 21, 2009
Tobins Q Summary Data (incl. Adjusted Blanchard, Rhee, Summers), 1900-2009 1, 2, 3
Q average value: 0.70; Q median value: 0.68
Q minimum value: 0.29 (1948 and 1974); Q maximum value: 1.88 (1999)
Q less than 1.00 (number of years): 92; Q greater than 1.00 (number of years): 17
Year
1900
1901
1902
1903
1904
1905
1906
1907
1908
1909
1910
1911
1912
1913
1914
1915
1916
1917
1918
1919
1920
1921
1922
1923
1924
1925
1926
1927
1928
1929
1930
1931
1932
1933
1934
1935
1936
1937
1938
1939
Q Ratio
(Adjusted)
0.51
0.68
1.04
0.83
0.91
1.08
1.00
0.76
0.78
0.89
0.87
0.82
0.83
0.82
0.66
0.68
0.65
0.45
0.33
0.33
0.33
0.30
0.39
0.42
0.42
0.53
0.57
0.66
0.82
1.06
0.93
0.59
0.30
0.48
0.76
0.98
1.08
0.97
0.75
0.91
Year
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
Q Ratio
(Adjusted)
0.69
0.57
0.43
0.54
0.53
0.48
0.39
0.31
0.29
0.30
0.35
0.38
0.36
0.34
0.46
0.55
0.55
0.47
0.62
0.68
0.68
0.80
0.75
0.80
0.90
0.97
0.80
0.96
1.05
0.82
0.75
0.80
0.90
0.61
0.29
0.49
0.53
0.43
0.40
0.41
Year
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
9/18/09
Q Ratio
(Adjusted)
0.46
0.38
0.41
0.45
0.40
0.49
0.54
0.53
0.55
0.64
0.63
0.84
0.96
1.03
0.96
1.14
1.26
1.45
1.61
1.88
1.40
1.18
0.82
1.07
1.07
0.91
0.91
0.89
0.55
0.86
Data from 1900-1944 is derived from Blanchard, Rhee, Summers series of Q estimates; data since 1945
represents Tobins Q estimates based on Tobins Q (new) methodology.
2
Blanchard, Rhee, Summers series of Q estimates has been adjusted to conform more closely to Tobins Q
(new) methodology used for years since 1945. The adjustment is based on an analysis of overlapping Q
estimates for the period from 1945-1990, for which both methods provide a set of estimates. Our analysis
found that the Blanchard, Rhee, Summers estimates exceeded the Tobin (new) estimates by 19%, on average.
As a result, the original Blanchard, Rhee, Summers series from 1900-1944 used in the table above has been
adjusted as follows: Each Blanchard, Rhee, Summers data point from 1900-1944 was divided by 1.19.
3
Data shows estimated Tobins Q ratio at each yearend, unless otherwise noted.
40
September 21, 2009
Tobins Q Numerator and Denominator, 1958-2009 1
Year
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2Q09
Market value has exhibited significantly greater volatility than replacement cost
Tobins
Q
0.62
0.68
0.68
0.80
0.75
0.80
0.90
0.97
0.80
0.96
1.05
0.82
0.75
0.80
0.90
0.61
0.29
0.49
0.53
0.43
0.40
0.41
0.46
0.38
0.41
0.45
0.40
0.49
0.54
0.53
0.55
0.64
0.63
0.84
0.96
1.03
0.96
1.14
1.26
1.45
1.61
1.88
1.40
1.18
0.82
1.07
1.07
0.91
0.91
0.89
0.55
0.73
Market
Value
$297
336
344
413
400
444
527
606
544
712
849
725
726
838
1,028
802
468
867
1,025
924
980
1,165
1,479
1,387
1,550
1,741
1,671
2,107
2,425
2,483
2,742
3,389
3,449
4,711
5,527
6,211
6,145
7,694
8,878
10,743
12,360
14,890
11,829
10,343
7,410
9,870
10,698
9,901
10,591
10,860
7,045
9,640
Replacement
Cost
$477
492
505
517
535
554
583
624
684
741
807
888
970
1,053
1,148
1,311
1,589
1,759
1,939
2,154
2,442
2,815
3,229
3,606
3,788
3,895
4,135
4,313
4,450
4,689
4,995
5,258
5,511
5,603
5,770
6,041
6,396
6,743
7,045
7,410
7,680
7,922
8,470
8,755
8,997
9,231
9,960
10,822
11,642
12,230
12,881
13,238
Changes in
Market
Replacement
Value
Cost
34%
2%
13%
3%
3%
3%
20%
2%
-3%
3%
11%
4%
19%
5%
15%
7%
-10%
10%
31%
8%
19%
9%
-15%
10%
0%
9%
15%
9%
23%
9%
-22%
14%
-42%
21%
85%
11%
18%
10%
-10%
11%
6%
13%
19%
15%
27%
15%
-6%
12%
12%
5%
12%
3%
-4%
6%
26%
4%
15%
3%
2%
5%
10%
7%
24%
5%
2%
5%
37%
2%
17%
3%
12%
5%
-1%
6%
25%
5%
15%
4%
21%
5%
15%
4%
20%
3%
-21%
7%
-13%
3%
-28%
3%
33%
3%
8%
8%
-7%
9%
7%
8%
3%
5%
-35%
5%
37%
3%
Based on Tobins Q (new) methodology. U.S. dollars in billions.

41
September 21, 2009
Tobins Q Components of Numerator (Market Value), 1960-2009 1
Year
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2Q09
Tobin's
Q
0.68
0.80
0.75
0.80
0.90
0.97
0.80
0.96
1.05
0.82
0.75
0.80
0.90
0.61
0.29
0.49
0.53
0.43
0.40
0.41
0.46
0.38
0.41
0.45
0.40
0.49
0.54
0.53
0.55
0.64
0.63
0.84
0.96
1.03
0.96
1.14
1.26
1.45
1.61
1.88
1.40
1.18
0.82
1.07
1.07
0.91
0.91
0.89
0.55
0.73
Market Value
344
413
400
444
527
606
544
712
849
725
726
838
1,028
802
468
867
1,025
924
980
1,165
1,479
1,387
1,550
1,741
1,671
2,107
2,425
2,483
2,742
3,389
3,449
4,711
5,527
6,211
6,145
7,694
8,878
10,743
12,360
14,890
11,829
10,343
7,410
9,870
10,698
9,901
10,591
10,860
7,045
9,640
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
Market
Value of
Debt 2
105
111
119
126
134
142
157
176
192
208
232
255
275
315
338
373
403
447
487
516
544
588
619
682
765
868
1,001
1,127
1,242
1,333
1,387
1,454
1,506
1,585
1,625
1,738
1,864
2,017
2,269
2,553
2,754
3,165
3,349
3,593
3,728
3,994
4,308
4,727
4,997
5,198
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
Market
Value of
Equities
365
438
424
466
546
624
548
712
843
714
712
836
1,049
820
562
761
935
825
864
1,028
1,346
1,225
1,386
1,630
1,553
1,917
2,241
2,287
2,559
3,145
2,967
4,014
4,370
4,852
4,812
6,435
7,619
9,661
11,561
15,160
12,685
10,805
7,839
10,845
12,086
12,684
14,328
15,252
9,554
10,315
Net
Liquid
Assets 3
56
62
66
68
69
69
64
73
73
68
74
93
116
123
186
-8
9
7
-16
-67
-95
-143
-164
-86
-52
-61
46
120
188
153
102
171
82
211
259
448
572
677
902
2,239
2,915
3,255
3,368
3,834
4,310
4,758
5,264
6,017
6,158
5,874
Land
Value
70
74
77
80
84
91
97
104
114
130
144
161
180
210
245
275
304
341
387
445
506
569
619
658
700
739
772
811
871
936
803
586
267
14
34
31
33
257
568
583
695
373
411
734
806
2,019
2,781
3,102
1,347
0

Generally approximated with book value of debt. Reliable market value aggregates are generally
unavailable. While the market value of debt can be estimated by valuing debt tranches based on book value
and an appropriate interest rate (typically Baa), such estimates can be unreliable.
3
Equals financial assets minus total liabilities (excl. municipal securities, corporate bonds and mortgages).
2
42
September 21, 2009
Tobins Q Components of Denominator (Replacement Cost), 1960-2009 1
Year
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
1Q09
2Q09
Tobin's
Q
0.68
0.80
0.75
0.80
0.90
0.97
0.80
0.96
1.05
0.82
0.75
0.80
0.90
0.61
0.29
0.49
0.53
0.43
0.40
0.41
0.46
0.38
0.41
0.45
0.40
0.49
0.54
0.53
0.55
0.64
0.63
0.84
0.96
1.03
0.96
1.14
1.26
1.45
1.61
1.88
1.40
1.18
0.82
1.07
1.07
0.91
0.91
0.89
0.55
0.61
0.73
Replacement
Cost
505
517
535
554
583
624
684
741
807
888
970
1,053
1,148
1,311
1,589
1,759
1,939
2,154
2,442
2,815
3,229
3,606
3,788
3,895
4,135
4,313
4,450
4,689
4,995
5,258
5,511
5,603
5,770
6,041
6,396
6,743
7,045
7,410
7,680
7,922
8,470
8,755
8,997
9,231
9,960
10,822
11,642
12,230
12,881
12,797
13,238
Replacement Cost of
Structures 2
Equipment Inventories
& Software
280
146
80
285
150
82
292
156
87
299
163
93
310
173
99
329
187
108
350
210
124
375
232
134
406
257
144
445
285
159
489
314
167
542
336
175
599
360
189
686
400
226
802
495
292
896
567
295
981
629
330
1,079
709
366
1,213
806
423
1,379
934
501
1,574
1,087
568
1,773
1,212
621
1,896
1,280
612
1,930
1,332
634
2,032
1,400
703
2,115
1,485
713
2,164
1,576
709
2,273
1,652
765
2,417
1,751
827
2,536
1,854
869
2,637
1,972
901
2,668
2,048
887
2,745
2,123
902
2,886
2,220
935
3,040
2,349
1,007
3,172
2,501
1,070
3,321
2,633
1,091
3,499
2,770
1,140
3,635
2,865
1,180
3,806
2,864
1,252
4,069
3,067
1,334
4,322
3,167
1,266
4,474
3,220
1,303
4,635
3,250
1,345
5,129
3,351
1,480
5,719
3,501
1,602
6,229
3,715
1,698
6,532
3,896
1,802
7,050
4,083
1,748
7,030
4,083
1,685
7,263
4,322
1,654
1
2

Includes replacement cost of residential and non-residential structures.
43
September 21, 2009
BIBLIOGRAPHY
Selected Sources of Additional Information
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Z.1 statistical releases and historical data,
http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/z1/current/default.htm
Blanchard, Olivier, Changyong Rhee, and Lawrence Summers, The Stock Market, Profit and
Investment, Quarterly Journal of Economics, Cambridge, Mass., June 1992.
Chung, Kee H. and Stephen W. Pruitt, A Simple Approximation of Tobins q, Financial
Management, vol. 23, no. 3, autumn 1994, pages 70-74, accessed at
http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=957032
Gross, Bill, Investment Outlook: Dow 5,000 Redux, PIMCO, December 2008, accessed at
http://www.pimco.com/LeftNav/Featured+Market+Commentary/IO/2008/IO+Dow+5000+Gross+Dec+08.htm
Harney, Matthew and Edward Tower, Rational Pessimism: Predicting Equity Returns using
Tobins q and Price/Earnings Ratios, The Journal of Investing (forthcoming), January 2, 2003,
accessed at http://www.econ.duke.edu/Papers/Abstracts02/abstract.02.29.html
Tobin, James, Money, Credit, and Capital, Boston, MA: Irwin McGraw-Hill, 1998.
Tobin, James, Volume 4: Essays in Economics: National and International, Cambridge, MA: MIT
Press, 1996, pp. 14-15.
Tobins Q web page by The Manual of Ideas: http://www.manualofideas.com/q
Members-only website: http://www.manualofideas.com/members/q/index.html
Tobins Q insight and snapshot of historical ratios by sector:
http://wps.aw.com/aw_carltonper_modernio_4/0,9313,1424978-content,00.html
Tobin resource page at the New School: http://cepa.newschool.edu/het/profiles/tobin.htm

Wikipedia page on Tobins Q: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tobin%27s_q
44
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EQUITIES AND TOBINS Q

Edited by the Research Team of

John Mihaljevic, CFA

The Manual of Ideas

About This Report

Inside This Report

About The Author

Tobins Q Ratio, December 31, 2007 to September 18, 2009

Source: The Federal Reserve, The Manual of Ideas.

We conclude that Q currently sends a neutral one-year market signal

EQUITIES AND TOBINS Q

September 21, 2009

When Tobins Q Rises to 0.86+, Is It Higher or Lower After One Year,

Source: The Manual of Ideas analysis.

There is one important caveat regarding the bearish mid- to long-term

Publisher: BeyondProxy LLC

Edited by the Research Team of The Manual of Ideas

EQUITIES AND TOBINS Q

September 21, 2009

The mere absence of deflation in light of the unprecedented implosion in

Tobins Q Ratio, 1900 September 18, 2009

Finally, we take this opportunity to lament the lack of reliability of data

Publisher: BeyondProxy LLC

Edited by the Research Team of The Manual of Ideas

EQUITIES AND TOBINS Q

September 21, 2009

Putting Todays Q Ratio in Historical Context

Analysis of Instances When Q Increased to 0.73 or Above, 1900-2009 1

Was Q Higher or Lower In Years

Source: The Manual of Ideas analysis.

Publisher: BeyondProxy LLC

Based on adjusted Q ratio estimates from 1900-2009.

EQUITIES AND TOBINS Q

September 21, 2009

Analysis of Instances When Q Increased to 0.86 or Above, 1900-2009 1

Was Q Higher or Lower In Years

Source: The Manual of Ideas analysis.

Publisher: BeyondProxy LLC

Based on adjusted Q ratio estimates from 1900-2009.

EQUITIES AND TOBINS Q

September 21, 2009

Publisher: BeyondProxy LLC

Edited by the Research Team of The Manual of Ideas

EQUITIES AND TOBINS Q

September 21, 2009

S&P 500 Intangible Book Value as % of Total Book Value

Source: Ocean Tomo, Ned Davis Research.

Tobins Q versus Tobins Q Adjusted for Intangible Assets, 1900-2009

Source: The Manual of Ideas analysis.

Publisher: BeyondProxy LLC

Edited by the Research Team of The Manual of Ideas

EQUITIES AND TOBINS Q

September 21, 2009

Tobins Q versus Tobins Q Adjusted for Intangible Assets, 1975-2009

Source: The Manual of Ideas analysis.

Tobins Q versus Tobins Q Adjusted for Intangible Assets, 4Q07 9/18/09

Tobin's Q (including intangibles)

Source: The Manual of Ideas analysis.

Publisher: BeyondProxy LLC

Edited by the Research Team of The Manual of Ideas

EQUITIES AND TOBINS Q

September 21, 2009

Publisher: BeyondProxy LLC

Edited by the Research Team of The Manual of Ideas

Tobin's Q

Tobin's Q