The Uphill Task staring the Ruling Dispensation for Elections 2013/4

By: Amit Bhushan Date: 15th Sept. 2013

The ruling dispensation faces some uphill challenges bracing it for coming elections. The foremost amongst them is the Mining/Coal-scam for which it has been offering lame excuses like the Mr. Xs conduct being an open book instead of cogent replies. It cannot deny that it has created an unlevel playing field by distributing the mines to its cronies and this is likely to have a far reaching impact on the sector for years to come as every new entity wishing to make investments will shy off competing with those having free mines. Indias energy appetite is likely to grow fivefold from presently installed capacities by around 2030, so where will the countries find new investors. Its argument that withdrawal of coal blocks will have a negative impact is eyewash to save its skin since the foreign financial have already lost trust on the ruling dispensations capacity to govern at least this sector in a sustainable manner, gimmickry around some newly inducted faces notwithstanding. A consistent ambivalent position & firefighting mode of governance is leading to an image of admission of guilt already, though an official no confidence is still in making in all probability. The other significant challenge faced by the government is overcoming the general slowdown and reduction in employment opportunities. While it has been high on rhetoric by announcing new & upcoming laws, however unless the institutional action kick starts investment and employment fast say in real estate/construction/projects sector, this is likely to remain a paper pushing exercise. While the businesses may remain obligated and yield funds, vote potential of such exercise is for pundits to debate. One of the lacunas of decision making in the current regime is that it focuses on large value projects only and focus on projects which are quick rollout with high people impact or a balancing impact of say CAD/IRR to government is minimal. What suffers is efficiency of service to people, since people are supposed to pay for such extravagance which may initially be funded with foreign money/loans (including delays/corruption/requirement changes), however subsequent burden falls on the taxpayers. One of the principal causalities of such approach is practical thinking, smart policy making and focus on implementation/roll-out of benefits. This is because it gives to much credence to having a large canvass and creates dependencies of funding agencies especially foreign funds even as

implementation of such ideas/projects continues to suffer at the hands of under-trained/inexperienced bureaucracy. It also blows out any small but smart ideas which I am sure would exist aplenty in babudom but for which no one has time. Thus there is a rupture of relations with bureaucracy as well as judiciary and an ever-growing disenchantment in public. The engagement of government with different social groups, especially the groups like middle class professionals and the rural landless worker. Post MNREGA, it seeks to put the blame of the condition of rural workers on the village government which can easily use the MNREGA money to swing votes in conjunction with the local government since there are gaps in the scheme and any central fiat to stop disbursement actually would go against the ruling party. The urban worker as well as the middle class has been left to fend for itself since most of the robust employment growth sector like telecom, financial services have come to a grinding halt while kick-start of manufacturing is a pipedream of the piped pipers in government. It is in this context, that the ruling dispensation has to brace for elections where its control on service delivery is minimal while its contradictions have made it extremely vulnerable for blame and it is finding it extremely difficult to embark on any clear growth path.