Climate Change Global climate change will have profound implications for the quality of life of hundreds of millions

of people. The prospect of human-induced climate change illustrates for the first time in history that humankind is in a position to exercise a significant influence on the global environment.1 This is a testimony to our inventiveness and power on the planet but also a warning about its possible harmful consequences. The Third Assessment Report (TAR) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2001) firmly established climate change as a political issue on the global agenda. The Fourth Assessment Report, currently being finalized (IPCC, 2007: 3) has estimated it to be very likely that human activities have contributed significantly to the observed temperature increase in the recent half century, i.e. an assessed probability in the interval 9099%. The IPCC has also outlined a series of probable effects of climate shifts on a plethora of natural systems. These in turn are likely to impact on human activities. Given the potential range and scope of consequences of climate change, it is not surprising that there is a concern about its security implications. Indeed, this began to surface soon after the TAR was published and has recently accelerated, even though the issue is peripheral in the IPCC reports. On 17 April 2007, climate change was debated in the Security Council, which established it as a security issue. Despite the breadth of this security concern in the public debate, statements about security implications have so far largely been based on speculation and questionable sources. Even the IPCC, which rightly prides itself of being a synthesis of the best peer-reviewed science, has fallen prey to relying on secondor third-hand information with little empirical backing when commenting on the implications of climate change for conflict. The research frontier is being pushed forward in both climate change research and conflict research, but given the combined uncertainties of the two fields, the gaps in our knowledge appear daunting. However, social scientists are now beginning to tackle this dual challenge. This special issue makes a contribution to a more systematic theoretical and empirical assessment of the potential security implications of climate change. Above all, we aim to show that these issues are researchable and should be made a research priority. Of course, caution must be exercised in drawing conclusions from the articles published here and particularly in formulating policy recommendations. Nevertheless, this special issue demonstrates that the concern about the conflict implications of climate change is warranted even though some of the apocalyptic visions currently disseminated by NGOs as well as some governments are less than solidly founded.

Possible Causes of Climate Change Atmospheric Gases CO2 and CH4 currently contribute ca. 81% of the total radiative forcing of long-lived greenhouse gases, but it is too simplistic to say that control of CO2 levels will be the complete solution, as is often implied by politicians and the media. It is certainly true that concentration levels of CO2 in the earth's atmosphere are a serious cause for concern, and many countries are now putting in place targets and policies to reduce them. CO2 levels in the atmosphere correlate

strongly with lifestyle of the population, and with serious efforts, especially in the developed world huge reductions are possible. The challenge is to effect policies to reduce CO2 concentration significantly without seriously decreasing the standard of living of the population and negating all the benefits that technology has brought. The earth is a planet in dynamic equilibrium, in that it continually absorbs and emits electromagnetic radiations. It receives ultra-violet and visible radiation from the sun, it emits infrared radiation and energy balance says that energy in must equal energy out for the temperature of the planet to be constant. This equality can be used to determine what the average temperature of the planet should be. Widespread surface Solar Radiation The flux density and wavelength of electro-magnetic radiation depend on its temperature. On the earth's surface the wavebands that contain the most energy, are therefore of prime interest in the context of climate influences, and are those emitted by the sun and the earth. Global radiation (Eg) is the total solar radiation falling on a horizontal surface of the earth, that is, at the bottom of the atmosphere (BOA). Precise wide-spread measurements of Eg began in the early twentieth century and although it was first assumed that no multiannual trends in this quantity occurred, by the 1970s there was evidence of significant decreases at some sites. As the evidence for large multi-decadal trends in Eg grew, the relationship between decreasing solar radiation (or global dimming) and wide spread decreasing pan evaporation was noticed. The energetic similarity of these changes led to scientific recognition that changes in Eg play a significant role in climate change. Previous assumptions that other parts of the earth's radiation balance were unchanging have subsequently come under scrutiny. Space Weather and Cosmic Rays Many factors from space and anthropogenic activities can influence the Earth's climate. The initial response was that space factors are unlikely to be responsible for most of the present climate change. However, it is important that all possible space factors be considered, and from an analysis of past climate changes, one could identify the present phase and could predict future climates. During the last several hundred million years the Sun has moved through the galactic arms several times with resultant climate changes. At present the Earth is in a slight cooling phase. When considering cosmic ray (CR) variations as one of the possible causes of long-term climate change, it is needed to take into account not only CR modulation by solar activity but also the change of geomagnetic cutoff rigidities. The effects of space factors on the climate can be divided into two types: the gradual type, related to changes on time scales ranging from 108a to 1122a, producing effects which could be greater than that produced from anthropogenic factors, and the sudden type, coming from supernova explosions and asteroid impacts. Volcanic and anthropogenic factors are also sudden factors in their effect on climate change. It is necessary to investigate all of the possible sudden factors, to develop methods of forecasting and also for protecting the biosphere, and the Earth's civilization from big changes in

climate and environment. The chapter emphasizes on the formation of clouds and the influence CR plays in their formation. Volcanic Activity Volcanic activity is an important natural cause of climate variations because tracer constituents of volcanic origin impact the atmospheric chemical composition and optical properties. Volcanic eruptions force all elements of the climate system, producing long-term climate signals in ocean. At present, a weak volcanic activity results in gas and particle effusions in the troposphere (lower part of atmosphere), which constitute, on an average, the larger portion of volcanic mass flux into the atmosphere. However, the products of tropospheric volcanic emissions are short-lived and contribute only moderately to the emissions from large anthropogenic and natural tropospheric sources. Chemical transformations and gasto-particle conversion of volcanic tracers form a volcanic aerosol layer that remains in the stratosphere for 23 years after an eruption, thereby impacting the Earth's climate, because volcanic aerosols cool the surface and the troposphere by reflecting solar radiation, and warm the lower stratosphere, absorbing thermal IR and solar near-IR radiation. Volcanic eruptions produce longterm impacts on the ocean's subsurface temperature and steric height that accumulate at the current frequency of explosive volcanic events. The vertical distribution of the ocean temperature change signal is asymmetric at high latitudes. A cooling signal penetrates to depth at high southern latitudes, while a warming signal penetrates to depth at high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. This chapter focuses on recently discovered forced stratosphere troposphere dynamic interaction and long-term ocean response to volcanic forcing. Variations of the Earths Orbital The climate of the Earth is characterized by trends, aberrations and quasi-periodic oscillations varying over a broad range of time-scales. The trends are largely controlled by plate tectonics, and thus tend to change gradually on a million year (Ma) time scale. Aberrations occur when certain thresholds are passed and are manifested in the geological record as unusually rapid or extreme changes in climate. The quasi-periodic oscillations are mostly astronomically paced; they are driven by astronomical perturbations that affect the Earth's orbit around the Sun and the orientation of the Earth's rotation axis with respect to its orbital plane. These perturbations are described by three main astronomical cycles: eccentricity, precession, and obliquity, which together determine the spatial and seasonal pattern of insolation received by the Earth, eventually resulting in climatic oscillations of tens to hundreds of thousands of years. The expression of these astronomical-induced climate oscillations is found in geological archives of widely different ages and environments. The role of orbital forcing in climate change has been unequivocally shown by their characteristic patterns in sedimentary archives, ice cores and proxy records. Although the knowledge of orbital forcing is concerned with long-term natural climate cycles, it is of fundamental importance to assess and remediate global climate change problems on short-term periods. In particular, the integration of climate modeling experiments with geological observations will provide these insights required for a better understanding of climate change in the past and near future. Considerable challenges are needed to be addressed

before the full spectrum of orbital-induced climatic variability has been unraveled, including the phase behavior of different parts of the climate system, feedback mechanisms and the impact on ecosystem dynamics. Indicators of Climate and Global Change Changes in Atmospheric Circulation Weather Pattern Changes in Tropics and Mid-Latitudes Bird Ecology Mammal Ecology Temporal and Spatial Mismatches in Insect Communities Sea Life (Pelagic and Planktonic Ecosystems) Changes in Coral Reef Ecosystems Changes in Marine Biodiversity Intertidal Indicators Plant Ecology Change on Crop Production Rising Sea Levels Sea Temperature Change Ocean Current Changes Ocean Acidification Ice Sheets Lichens Coastline Degradation Plant Pathogens

REFERENCES: Nordas, R. & Gleditsch, N.P. (2007). Climate Change and Conflict. Political Geography, 26 (6), 627-638 Letcher, T. (2009). Climate Change: Observed Impacts on Planet Earth. 1st Ed. Oxford. Elsevier B.V.
Burney, J. A., Kennel, C. F., & Victor, D. G. (2013). Getting serious about the new realities of global climate change. Bulletin Of The Atomic Scientists, 69(4), 49-57. doi:10.1177/0096340213493882