Brooke Jensen (b2793023) Social Change Midterm - UGANDA

Uganda is a country persistently characterized by social change. Despite its recent improvements in healthcare, its budding education system, and the recent disbandment of the Lords Resistance Army, however, Ugandas trends of social change in its past, present, and future, are characterized by unsavory circumstances. These entail situations such as extremely diverse ethnic, cultural, and ideological differences, an increasing disapproval of Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni, and an extremely high population growth rate. Each of these conditions can be explained by social change concepts and predictions including growth of cultural clashes, decreasing trust toward national leaders and social institutions, and ominous threats of overpopulation. Perhaps the most pervasive trend operating within Uganda revolves around the growing cultural clashes within its boundaries. Outlined by the Harper and Leicht, this is the prediction that future conflicts will not exist between mere nation-states, but instead will be prevalent between civilizations over more intrinsic characteristics such as ethnicity, language, religion, and traditions (2011:319). But while the premise of this definition relates to globalization and the future conflicts expected as a result, the phenomenon of these conflicts extending beyond mere boundaries on a map (and instead developing from dissonance between the most basic of characteristics) is customary in Ugandas present. Samuel Huntington coined this phenomenon the clash of civilizations in his article Foreign Affairs, stating that the fault lines between civilizations will be the battle lines of the future (1993:22). Since Uganda was awarded its independence from Britain in 1962, it has commonly been referred to as an

Brooke Jensen (b2793023) Social Change Midterm - UGANDA

ethnic mosaic, with more than 52 diverse tribal groups herded together by its awkwardly redesigned boundaries (Byrnes 1995). Because of such drastic variances in ideologies and traditions present in Ugandas cultural melting pot, ethnic-related conflicts have dominated its history, most of which involve military coups and violent regime changes associated with the endless movement of power from one ethnic group to the next (Rohner, Thoenig, and Zilibotti 2012:2). Although the conflicts between varying cultures have been detrimental to Ugandas hope for an optimistic and nationalistic society, they have at least created a strong solidarity between Ugandan people with similar backgrounds and ideologies. A study examining country level data echoes these assertions in its revelation that, despite the fact that there is a significant decline in identity and loyalty to Uganda as a whole, there is also an increase in allegiance between likeminded groups: studies have found that fighting and conflict events have a statistically significant effect on reports of trust toward other people from Uganda, and those who live within more violence-ridden areas are more likely to report higher self-identification with their own ethnic group in relationship to their affiliation to Uganda (Rohner, Thoenig, and Zilibotti 2012:5). However, the social trend of a decreasing loyalty to Uganda in its entirety does not flawlessly represent the clash of cultural theory because it is not facilitated by the spread of communications technology and global immigration as predicted by the (Harper and Leicht 2011:319), but instead is a result of the complete deficiency of nationalism between Ugandas diverse ethnic groups at the time of its independence (Byrnes 1995). Moreover, because the clash of civilizations was

Brooke Jensen (b2793023) Social Change Midterm - UGANDA

initially theorized in order to predict the future of the new world, it is incapable of making assumptions concerning the future of Uganda: if the nation already has been, and still remains to be, experiencing ethnic and cultural struggles, one cannot predict if it will be inclined to achieve peace when the rest of the world falls victim to the cultural clash, or if the conflict in Uganda will simply worsen. Ugandas cultural conflicts and its resulting decrease of national loyalty has also inevitably led to a drastic decline in the Ugandan peoples trust in national leaders and social institutions. The text emphasizes the prevalence of the belief that the interests of people are not adequately being addressed by their leaders and the resulting doubt and pessimism spreads easily, encouraging discord and causing the public to fear speaking up (Harper and Leicht 2011:78). Uganda has experienced a tumultuous leadership history, leading with the election of its first prime minster Milton Obote, who tightened his reign over the country by conducting corrupt deals with the military in return for their unending support, followed by leader Idi Amin Dada who led an eight year reign of terror thought to be one of the worst of all African regimes, (Raffaele 2005), and somewhat subsiding with Yoweri

Brooke Jensen (b2793023) Social Change Midterm - UGANDA

Museveni, once he exiled Amin to Saudi Arabia and took the leadership position himself in 1986. Despite the fact that Musevenis first few years were marked by significant economic, health, and lifestyle improvements, citizens feel that he has grown heavy-handed as he clings to power in his twentyseventh year, and that they desire change (Burnett 2012). In the hope to constrain the publics doubt, government officials are currently scrutinizing nongovernmental organizations and their impact on the perception of the government, putting public and political tensions at an all-time high and causing NGO representatives to censor their own work in order to continue their work among such hostile conditions (Human Rights Watch 2012). Although social trust based leadership roles do not necessarily guarantee immediate gain of full economic and social rights, social trust does construct a context in which the poor and less powerful feel free to challenge governmental extremes without persecution (Nkhata 2012: 46), an important element of government that Uganda seems to neglect. Despite the fact that this dissonance between NGOs and the overarching government perfectly 4

Brooke Jensen (b2793023) Social Change Midterm - UGANDA

reiterates the cultural trend of the decreasing trust that the Ugandan people have in national leaders and social institutions, the theory was initially created in order to explain cultural change only in the United States (Harper and Leicht 2011:78). Because this theory is founded upon evidence derived from studies only on American trends and because the types of institutions present in the United States and Uganda vary greatly, the reasons behind the publics distrust in them cannot easily be generalized from one country to the next. Extending beyond Ugandas lack of trust in political and institutional leaders and its seemingly endless culture clash lies an even greater dilemma: Uganda hosts an estimated 34 million people, a huge increase from its reported 26 million in 2006, indicating that more than 1 million people are added to the population every year (Lanyero and Ayebazibwe 2012). The threat of overpopulation, therefore, is a concern that currently supersedes Ugandas other troubles: conflicting ethnic groups and disapproval of President Museveni seem rather mild issues when confronted with the risk of widespread famine and the inability to fulfill the most basic of human needs 5

Brooke Jensen (b2793023) Social Change Midterm - UGANDA

(Harper and Leicht 2011:336). The State of Uganda Population report 2012 emphasized the true threats of overpopulation and its potential to wreak havoc on the already diminishing Ugandan economy by stating that more than 80% of Ugandans depend on fertile land and a thriving agricultural economy for their source of revenue, but telltale signs of degrading agricultural lands, soil erosion and reduced land capacity have become prominent in recent research (Oluka 2011). The Report also states that at least 69% of Ugandan citizens are below the age of 24, with the average Ugandan woman mothering seven children (The World Factbook), supporting the notion that the world is becoming overpopulated because it is so poor, rather than the opposite belief that the world is becoming so poor because it is overpopulated. In developing nations such as Uganda, it is common for people to have large families in order to offer support to the elderly and offer economic and financial benefits through their additional labor (Harper and Leicht 2011:336). Because of these additional benefits gained through having larger families, it is unsurprising that Uganda presently maintains a population 6

Brooke Jensen (b2793023) Social Change Midterm - UGANDA

growth rate of 3.2 percent, currently the fourth highest in the world, (The World Factbook), which has caused population experts to predict that by 2050, a staggering 103 million people will reside in Uganda (Oluka 2011). Below is a graph demonstrating the fluctuation in Ugandas population growth rate throughout the last 52 years, wherein one can easily note the

Brooke Jensen (b2793023) Social Change Midterm - UGANDA

unfortunate stability of the rate within in the last ten yearsindicating that Ugandas population is likely to continue to increase at an incredibly dangerous pace, which will inevitably and drastically affect the provision of health, education, housing, food, and employment services (Oluka 2011).

However, although

Brooke Jensen (b2793023) Social Change Midterm - UGANDA

Source: CIA World Factbook

(https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/ug.html)

Harper and Leicht claim that overpopulation can be solved through the empowerment of women since women are often forced to marry young in order to begin families and earn social and economic security (2011:337-338), this is no longer the case in Uganda. Due to a recent proposal of The Marriage and Divorce Bill, which would create legislation that would fix the minimum legal age for marriage at eighteen, allow women to choose their spouse, and offer them the option of divorce if treated poorly (FIDH 2012), the texts proposed solution to overpopulation can be considered inefficient and inapplicable to Uganda.

Uganda hosts a vast amount social change within its history and among its present. Between its dramatic variations in ethnic traditions and ideologies which causes cultural clashes, an increasing disapproval of Ugandan President Museveni and an overarching reluctance to speak against the government creating a lack of trust in social leaders, and a stable,

Brooke Jensen (b2793023) Social Change Midterm - UGANDA

threateningly high percentage growth rate leading to menacing overpopulation predictions, Uganda undoubtedly faces an ominous and volatile future. If social change does not soon occur in the opposite direction, that is, begins to prosper rather than decline, the Pearl of Africa may indeed lose its luster altogether.

References: Burnett, John. 2012. Ugandas Leader: 26 Years In Power, No Plans To Quit. NPR. Retrieved from: http://www.npr.org/2012/10/08/161542159/ugandas-leader-26years-in-power-no-plans-to-quit Byrnes, Rita M. 1995. "Uganda: A Country Study." Federal Research Division of the Library of Congress. Retrieved from: http://onlinelit.harvey.lib.il.us/africa/country%20studies/uganda%20country%20st udy.txt FIDH. 2012. Womens rights in Uganda: gaps between policy and practice. Retrieved from: http://www.fidh.org/Women-s-rights-in-Uganda-gaps Harper, Charles L. and Kevin T. Leicht. 2011. Exploring Social Change: America and the World. Upper Saddle River, NJ: Prentice Hall. 10

Brooke Jensen (b2793023) Social Change Midterm - UGANDA

Human Rights Watch. 2012. Uganda: Growing Intimidation, Threats to Society. Retrieved from: http://www.hrw.org/news/2012/08/21/uganda-growingintimidation-threats-civil-society Huntington, Samuel P. 1993. The Clash of Civilizations? Foreign Affairs 72:3 22-49. Lanyero, Flavia and Agatha Ayebazibwe. 2012. Experts warn on population growth. Daily Monitor. Retrieved from: http://www.monitor.co.ug/News/National/Experts-warn-on-population-growth//688334/1643418/-/vg1ml7/-/index.html Nkhata, Mwiza, J. 2005. The Social Trust and Leadership Roles: Revitalising Duty Bearer Accountability in the Protection of Social and Economic Rights in Malawi and Uganda. Centre for Human Rights LLM Dissertations. 268: 1-67. Retrieved from: http://repository.up.ac.za/handle/2263/1153 Oluka, Benon H. 2011. Ugandas population to hit 100m in 2050. Daily Monitor. Retrieved from: http://www.monitor.co.ug/News/National/-/688334/1262424//bhgqenz/-/index.html Raffaele, Paul. 2005. Uganda: The Horror. Smithsonian Magazine. Retreived from: http://www.smithsonianmag.com/people-places/uganda.html Rohner, Dominic, Mathias Thoenig and Fabrizio Zilibotti. 2012. Seeds of Distrust: Conflict in Uganda. Households in Conflict Network Working Papers 112: 1-52. Retrieved from http://ideas.repec.org/p/hic/wpaper/112.html The World Factbook. 2013. Uganda. Retrieved from: https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/ug.html

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