DSA Alert August-2011

editor-in-chief
he announcement of a troop withdrawal by President Obama has sent many theorists over the top, but there is much happening under the radar that suggests Armageddon is not imminent. And if the game is played well and fairly, that doomsday can safely be prevented till eternity. But that of course depends on the inimitable 'if' of regional politics and global visions. There are many imponderables enroute and much to happen before the last western soldier leaves the dust and destruction of Afghanistan behind. For starters it isn't even certain how the withdrawal of NATO / ISAF troops will pan out. There is a commitment to withdraw troops and there will be a departure. But there is no certainty to the scale of it. As of now the commitment stands for 2014, but between now and then there are yet many hurdles to overcome and many more baddies to neutralise. Even as the Afghan National Army and other domestic security forces take up greater responsibilities, a western military presence will remain in the country.
To support, train, even occasionally conduct a raid, but most certainly to keep the global alliance informed about the true conditions on the ground. Despite the presence of every conceivable snooping technology available, boots on the ground are still the most important intelligence asset. And it is unlikely that the western alliance, which freed Afghanistan from the horrors of the Taliban, will give up that greatest advantage.
There are two scenarios commonly doing the rounds in the minds of the analysts and the practitioners. The first believes that the Taliban will roll into Kabul even as the last flight hurriedly leaves for the west.
The other believes that the current formulation of governance will hold out in Afghanistan, pick up a battering and some serious bruises, but still prevent the Taliban from taking power. The former scenario is inspired by the visuals of Saigon 1975 and the latter by the indomitable spirit of late President Mohammad Najibullah of Afghanistan. Conditions globally, as wellv as regionally, suggest that the latter course is the more likely one to be realised.
Battling terror in Afghanistan has certainly lost its sheen for the citizens of western countries that have troops in combat roles. A war that was once considered just is now not the priority for people reeling under an economic crisis. But then the scenario of 1990s Afghanistan constantly rears its head as a reminder of what happens when a vacuum is allowed to develop in the Hindu Kush. The world as a whole has learned lessons from vacating the space in Afghanistan and allowing hell to appear on earth. That is a scenario unacceptable at any cost. And which will propel a larger alliance than that currently exists as boots on the ground. There is little likelihood of another Najibullah as a lone warrior holding out on his own.
For the preachers of terror will not any longer be allowed to make Afghanistan a home to horrors. The world is more experienced now and will mend its ways, even if every neighbour has yet not done.
August 2011 Defence AND security alert
publishers view
executiv editor
A
Vo l u m e 2 I s s u e 1 1 A u g u s t 2 0 1 1
chairman shyam sunder publisher & ceo pawan agrawal editor-in-chief manvendra singh executive editor maj gen (dr) g d bakshi (retd) SM, VSM director shishir bhushan corporate consultant k j singh art consultant divya gupta central saint martins college of art & design, university of arts, london corporate communications tejinder singh ad-sales rajeev chathley ishani bhowmik creative vivek anand pant administration shveta gupta representative (Jammu and Kashmir) salil sharma correspondent (Europe) dominika cosic production dilshad & dabeer webmaster sundar rawat photographer subhash circulation & distribution ranjeet dinesh e-mail: (first name)@dsalert.org info: info@dsalert.org articles: articles@dsalert.org subscription: subscription@dsalert.org online edition: online@dsalert.org advertisement: advt@dsalert.org editorial & business office 4/19 asaf ali road new delhi-110002 (India) t: +91-011-23243999, 23287999,9958382999 f: +91-11-23259666 e: info@dsalert.org www.dsalert.org
nother terrorist attack in Mumbai! Killing 19 innocents and injuring more than 118 persons who had no reason to die or get injured on 13.07.2011. 13/7 has just been added to the litany of dates that remind us of the sheer impotence of our nation in the face of such repeated attacks. Why are we such a Sitting duck target for the terrorists? The frequency of such attacks is increasing day by day. I have to ask myself sometimes if there is any co-relation between the escalation of these attacks and the increase in our budgetary provisions for internal security! Today, we are more insecure in spite of spending so much more for a safety infrastructure that finds itself at sea whenever terrorists strike at will. The more we spend the less safety we seem to get.
Clarion call!
The basic question that we need to address is why are we such sitting ducks in the face of repeated terrorist attacks? The simple answer is that we perhaps lack the basic political will to defend ourselves. Our leadership seems more obsessed with ensuring its reelection by pandering to certain sections of the population in the mistaken belief that going soft on terror will help them secure their votes and allegiance. The tragic fact is that terrorist strikes are indiscriminate. They kill Hindus, Muslims, Sikhs, Christians, all segments of our population with no regard whatsoever for caste, creed or community. Terrorism is a crime against humanity. To equate it with any particular faith or community is to insult them in a most grievous manner. There is also the callous lack of concern for the lives of ordinary Indian citizens who do not rate the Zulu category. For them there are instead bizarre platitudes to stop whining, to grin and bear it and most insulting of all - to show resilience and act as if nothing at all had happened. Terrorism in India cannot stop till such time as we insist on being purely reactive and defensive in our basic approach to counter terrorism. Our liberals and intellectuals are far more interested in protecting the human rights of the terrorists. They have little patience with the need to defend the life of the man on the street. Let me take you back a few decades when terrorism in Punjab and the revived Naxal movement in the country had started. It was the time when Mrs. Indira Gandhi was leading the nation and she had been quite tough in handling such situations. There had been some instances where political compulsions had necessitated some relaxation but by and large she handled the situation very effectively and competently because she displayed the requiste political will and toughness to defend the nation-State and its citizens. In fact, she was ruthless in the pursuit of national interests. The current political leadership will have to show that spine if we are to put an end to such terrorist depredations. It will have to display such will in defending our interests in Jammu and Kashmir and in Afghanistan where we seem willing to crawl when we are asked to bend. By the end of the 20th century things had gone so much out of control in India that it seems that anti-national elements can strike at will at any time and place of their choice so that they can get publicity commensurate to the number of innocent men, women and children killed or wounded or security personnel slaughtered. Our entire gang of NGOs and Civil Liberties Groups are hell-bent on stopping or at the very least hampering the Operations of our security forces and creating a permissive environment in which terrorist groups can strike at will and leave the State in a paralysis. Is there some force which is orchestrating this whole phenomenon in our country? Is there any connection between the mafia groups, arms suppliers and some anti-national people in our country? Is there a long term anti-India campaign masterminded by forces inimical to India? Is our security policy being ghost-driven by the same international coterie that is destabilising Afghanistan? Is there a larger game plan to subvert India as a mirror-image of Afghanistan? Is all this part of a sinister design and machinations of anti-India forces hell-bent upon destabilising and balkanising India? The US and NATO forces appear to be in retreat from Afghanistan. The US forces have started going back to save their face, leaving the problem unresolved, nay, worse confounded, aggravating further the misery of our Afghan brothers who are going to face harsh realities once these forces are pulled back completely from Afghanistan in the near future.What has happened in Afghanistan may happen to us tomorrow if we do not become alert to our security realities immediately. Our government has to take a tough stand and must show very strong political will to handle this situation otherwise India and Indians will be heading for trying times. The recent revelation that the man lobbying in the US for the right to self-determination for the people of Kashmir was being paid by the Pakistan Army Inter-Services Intelligence rips the veil from the ugly face of Pakistani State-sponsored terrorism and the covert war of annexation it is conducting in Jammu and Kashmir. The ISI has been using American money to buy Americans to back the terrorism unleashed in the name of the Kashmir cause. What is worse is the number of educated Indians who can be seduced to ridicule and condemn their motherland for the price of a foreign junket. I demand that a separate ministry for Internal Security be formed for the modernisation and up-gradation of security and intelligence organs of the State. We should urgently procure the same sophisticated technologies that America is using to combat Pak-sponsored terrorism in Afghanistan. The bleeding of India through a thousand cuts will equally affect America as it seeks to balance the rising power of an aggressive and assertive China. Jai hind!
The country comes first always and every time.
cosmetic draw down of American troops was expected to be announced in July this year. President Obamas withdrawal time table however has been far more substantial, 10,000 troops in the current year and 23,000 in 2012. Steep fiscal constraints, electoral considerations and rising levels of military competition with China have forced this somewhat hasty transition from a Counter Insurgency to a Counter Terrorism posture in Afghanistan. Is this pace of withdrawal too precipitate? There is no peace agreement visible with the Taliban. The Taliban attack on the Intercontinental Hotel in the heart of Kabul and the assassinations of Ahmad Karzai and Jan Mohammed were not a good augury. Counter Insurgency campaigns require the ability to sustain large troop concentrations for at least a decade and more to wear down and psychologically exhaust the adversary. Admiral Mike Mullen, Gen. Petraeus and even Hillary Clinton are said to have opposed this fairly rapid rate of troop withdrawals. It risks undoing all the gains made so far. However, the Joe Biden camp seems to have prevailed and there will now be a distinct transition from CI to a CT mode of operations. America is not quitting Afghanistan. However it is drastically reducing its footprint. It will establish permanent bases there in terms of Air power and Special Forces capabilities for intervention not only in Afghanistan but even more in Pakistan. Pakistan in fact is increasingly coming into focus as the main component of the problem and less and less of the solution. There is a clear change of orientation from Af-Pak to Pak-Af. Helping to reduce the number of US ground troops in Afghanistan will sharply reduce the logistical dependency on Pakistan and make it easier to target that country. Some pertinent points need to be made at this juncture about the conduct of operations in Afghanistan so far. A surge is a classic withdrawal tactic. You hit the enemy hard prior to a withdrawal - so that a retreat does not become a running fight or a rout. However post-surge the US-NATO operations have been more successful than has generally been recognised. The Americans brought in some 21,000 troops in the first surge in 2009 and another 33,000 in 2010. These were primarily employed in the Opium producing areas of Marjah, Helmand and Kandahar - the core area of the Taliban. Historically guerillas do not stand up and fight in the face of such an offensive. They roll with the punch. The Taliban however was overcome with hubris. It was convinced the Americans lacked the stomach for a sustained battle - so it stood up and fought to defend Helmand and Kandahar. In the bargain the Taliban has reportedly suffered some 2,000 killed and 4,000 supporters apprehended and lost its financial support base of the opium harvest. Additionally the US Operations have focused on Command and Control Attrition. US Special Forces operations have focused on night raids to eliminate the middle tier Taliban commanders (the top leadership is safely ensconced in Pakistan). In the brilliant operation Neptune Spear the SEAL Team 6 eliminated Osama bin Laden in the Pakistani cantonment of Abbottabad. The Pakistani reaction has not been shame faced. It has been brazen. The ISI arrested the informants of the CIA, who gave the leads on Laden and Gen Kayani apparently is doing the rounds of his cantonments placating his outraged officers. Anti-Americanism had never been at such a strident pitch in Pakistan. Is this an orchestrated pitch? So what impact does all this have on India? What are our stakes in Afghanistan? And more importantly what are the options that we have? That is the core topic that this issue of the DSA seeks to address. The prime need is to Afghanise the conflict by a rapid and meaningful capacity building of the Afghan National Army (ANA). It is here that India can and should play a meaningful role. Why cant we offer to raise, train and equip two additional Afghan Divisions? Why cant we gift T-55 Tanks and 105 mm artillery guns to raise an armoured and artillery brigade? Why cant we gift Dhruv Helicopters to strengthen the Afghan Air Corps? India does not need Pakistans permission to do so. Is India the aspiring global and actual regional power or is it Pakistan? Why is India behaving so timidly in Afghanistan? Why is it kowtowing to the Pakistani Generals on the Afghan issue? India is currently punching much below its weight and this needs to change - drastically and soon. As the Executive Editor, I look forward to the growth of the Defence and Security Alert as an invaluable forum for debate and discussion on issues of national security and for the generation of new and innovative ideas. The central credo of Team DSA is the identification and aggressive promotion of our national interests. The country comes first always and every time.
disclaimer all rights reserved. reproduction and translation in any language in whole or in part by any means without permission from Defence and Security Alert is prohibited. opinions expressed are those of the individual writers and do not necessarily reflect those of the publisher and / or editors. all disputes are subject to jurisdiction of delhi courts.
defence and security alert is printed, published and owned by pawan agrawal and printed at graphic world, 1686, kucha dakhini rai, darya ganj, new delhi-110002 and published at 4/19 asaf ali road, new delhi (india). editor: manvendra singh.
Maj Gen (Dr) G D Bakshi (retd) SM, VSM

contents
AFGHANISTAN SPECIAL ISSUE August 2011
Volume 2 Issue 11 August 2011
contents
6 8 12 regional rivalries Dr Harsh V Pant need for a regional solution 56 59 63 66 70 76 80
Maj Gen Afsir Karim (retd) AVSM
A R T I C L E S
interaction with Afghanistan ambassador

Team DSA
Maj Gen (Dr) G D Bakshi (retd) SM, VSM Iran's role in Afghanistan Dr Ahmad Reza Taheri US counter-terrorism strategy: lessons for India Dr Jagmohan Meher repercussions in the region Lt Gen V K Jetley (retd) Pakistans strategy after Osama Prof P M Kamath Pakistans likely role Brig Rumel Dahiya (retd) the new great game? Sandhya Jain US exit strategy: recipe for instability? Brig Gurmeet Kanwal (retd) future of Afghanistan: Indias role Dr Arvind Kumar Indias smart power strategy Brig Rahul K Bhonsle (retd)
regional imperatives Ambassador Rajiv Sikri endgame in Afghanistan: Indias stakes and options
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26 31 36 42 46 49 52
growing Af-Pak uncertainties Prof Chintamani Mahapatra time for realpolitik: is India ready? Lt Gen O P Kaushik (retd) stabilisation of Afghanistan Dr Tej Pratap Singh drugs and instability conundrum Dr Prem Mahadevan The Afghan national army: how prepared is it? Aditi Malhotra role of Russia Dominika Cosic India: intrepid benefactor Subimal Bhattacharjee Chinas conticent presence Dr Monika Chansoria
84 86 88
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Afghanistan
GRAVEYARD OF EMPIRES
Our Executive Editor Maj Gen (Dr) G D Bakshi (retd) SM, VSM with H E Dr Nanguyalai Tarzi, Afghanistan Ambassador
Team DSA
is Excellency Dr Nanguyalai Tarzi, Afghanistans Ambassador to India is a soft spoken, erudite and scholarly diplomat of royal lineage. In an effort to understand the fast changing situation in Afghanistan, the DSA Team led by the Executive Editor, spent over an hour in conversation with the Ambassador on 22nd July 2011 at the Afghan Embassy. Quite understandably, a large component of the discussion was off the record. He highlighted that the situation is highly fluid and dynamic and the key players are all keeping their cards close to the chest. His Excellency has served as Ambassador earlier in Pakistan in the Musharraf era. Prior to that, he was in Iran. He had done his PhD Thesis on the Russian-Afghan Border. His assignment to India he said was his most positive and refreshing challenge on how to exploit the massive potential inherent in this traditionally most friendly relationship. He felt so very much at home in New Delhi such a refreshing change from his earlier assignment, he said with a twinkle in his eyes. India he said is at the centre of all diplomatic and political activity in the region. Five foreign heads of States of the leading powers of the World (the Presidents of the United States, Russia, France and China and the Prime Minister of Great Britain) had all made their way to New Delhi in the recent past. India has its roots in the South Asian region but it is today a global player with enormous economic resources and clout. The size of Indias contribution to the economic reconstruction of Afghanistan (a whopping US$ 2 billion) speaks for itself. There is more in the pipeline he said. The end game in Afghanistan needs a concerted regional effort and positive contribution by all neighbouring countries. Zero-sum games can be highly counter-productive and create problems for the whole region. H E Dr Tarzai is a great scholar of Afghan history and has put together a most impressive and priceless montage of Afghan history in an exquisite collection of invaluable lithographs, ink sketches and historic photographs that makes his book an invaluable collectors piece. The Ambassadors deep insights and profound knowledge have helped us immensely in putting together this issue with its focus on the end game in Afghanistan. As a people, the Afghans have suffered most tragically from unending war and conflict in the last three decades. The 1979 Census had credited Afghanistan with a population of 15.3 million. The stark tragedy of Afghanistan is summed up in the following statistics:
Ambassador of Afghanistan
Since 1979 over 1.5 million Afghans have been killed. 5 million Afghans were forced to become refugees in Iran and Pakistan. 2 to 3 million Afghans have been internally displaced due to the fighting.
Interaction with H E Dr Nanguyalai Tarzi
The city of Kabul had been reduced to rubble and over 30,000 people were killed in this city alone. Like a phoenix Kabul today has risen from the ashes. The poppy crop acerage in Afghanistan had shot up from 20,000 acres in 2001 to over 4,77,000 acres in 2007. The Taliban had ensured that Afghanistan was producing 82 per cent of the worlds poppy and 93 per cent of its heroin to provide some US$ 4 billion each year to fund its insurgency against the Karzai government. The Resurrection. Paul D. Miller wrote in the Foreign Affairs Magazine (vol 90 No 1) that in 2001 there were some 3.8 million Afghan refugees still languishing in other countries and 1.2 million were internally displaced persons (IDPs). Of these, some 2 million external refugees and 2,50,000 IDPs have since returned to their homes. All Human Development Indices have shown remarkable improvement since then. One only hopes and prays that the world will at long last, leave the tragically suffering people of Afghanistan in peace; that the colonial ambitions of its eastern neighbour will not destroy all that which has been re-built at such great costs. Fed up of decades of languishing in refugee camps, the Afghan people are yearning for peace and stability and a chance to re-create their nation-State. It is earnestly hoped that the tragic and quixotic quest for Strategic depth will not once again reduce Afghanistan to rubble.
Afghanistan
GrAVeyArD Of eMPires
A cogently argued article that analyses the matrix of options for a regional approach to the final outcome in Afghanistan. Reports indicate that the US plans to retain a number of large air bases to be used for combat and reconnaissance aircraft, drones and for electronic surveillance. Afghanistans neighbours, however, will not accept a long-term US presence in Afghanistan, particularly if they suspect US motives. The principal concerns of the Central Asian countries and Russia are to keep Islamic fundamentalism at bay and to stem the flow of drugs from Afghanistan. Iran too worries greatly about the narcotics trade. It does not look kindly upon the prospect of a fundamentalist Sunni regime in power there. China supports Pakistans policies in Afghanistan, worries about the seepage of fundamentalism and terrorism to Xinjiang and wants to exploit Afghanistans mineral resources. For India, Afghanistan holds the key to a successful Central Asia policy. Any viable regional solution to Afghanistan has to be within the framework of a grand bargain involving the principal players viz. Afghanistan, Pakistan, US, Iran and India.
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August 2011 Defence AnD security Alert
Ambassador Rajiv Sikri
regional
imperatives
Afghanistan
Reports indicate that the US plans to retain a number of large air bases to be used for combat and reconnaissance aircraft, drones and for electronic surveillance. This should come as no surprise. In addition to providing security support for the regime in Kabul, a long-term US military presence in Afghanistan will enable the US to monitor and if needed put pressure on, countries in the region be it China, Iran, the Persian Gulf states, Central Asian countries, Russia, Pakistan, even India
The other key precondition for
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Afghanistan
The key to long term success in Afghanistan would hinge upon a successful Afghanisation of the Counter Insurgency campaign. It is here that India can play a very positive role by helping to raise, equip and train minimum two additional Afghan Infantry Divisions and at least an Armoured and Artillery brigade. Undue deference was being shown by the Americans so far to Pakistans hyper- sensitivities about Afghanistan. Pakistan wanted it treated as a virtual colony. After Abbottabad, this mindset will have to change. Pakistan is not a part of the solution in Afghanistan. As the Americans are rapidly beginning to recognise, it is the primary problem. Economic and domestic constraints have impelled President Obama to accelerate the pace of withdrawal beyond a point of prudence. Fairly evident military gains have been made post the Surge. However, these are fragile and could easily be reversed. That is all the more reason for India to step up its profile and stop punching so much below its actual weight.
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Maj Gen (Dr) G D Bakshi (retd) SM, VSM
ENDGAME IN AFGHANISTAN:
INDIAS STAKES AND OPTIONS
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Afghanistan
The economics of the campaign in Afghanistan needs to be grasped at the earliest. It costs the USA one million dollars to sustain each American soldier in Afghanistan. By sharp contrast each Afghan soldier costs the Americans just 12,000 dollars a year. The most cardinal error of the Afghan campaign was not to start the raising of a viable Afghan army after the rout of the Taliban in 2001
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Afghanistan
Afghanistan
Dr Ahmad Reza Taheri
Perhaps the key to any meaningful Indian role in Afghanistan lies with Iran. Iran alone can provide India access for trade or provision of military support. To that extent it is vital for India to understand the Iranian perspective and thinking on the vital subject of Afghanistan. This article provides most invaluable insights into Iranian thinking on the subject. Iran has traditionally been hostile to the Taliban. However in the given scenario, Iran, the writer states unequivocally, can either play a negative role by seeking to keep American and Western attention and resources tied down in Afghanistan or play a positive role by facilitating reconciliation and reconstruction. To that extent a prolonged US engagement in Afghanistan suits Iran tactically, even if it has to temporarily support the Taliban. However Iran, he says, can equally play a very positive role in the reconstruction and pacification of Afghanistan, provided it is permitted to do so. This may call for steps by the West to diplomatically engage Iran and reduce hostility with that State. However, the writer clearly spells out that a return of the Taliban in power in Kabul cannot be viewed favourably by Iran; that it can play the Tajik card and it may need help in doing so. An excellent espousal of the Iranian position which we need to study in great depth.
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August 2011 Defence AnD security Alert August 2011 Defence AnD security Alert
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Afghanistan
Therefore, to the US administration, the destructive role of
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Afghanistan
A very convincing analysis of some of the lessons India can learn from US operations in Afghanistan. The writer highlights the role of the CIA in intelligence gathering on the ground which facilitates the Drone strikes and Commando raids by the special forces. These have inflicted significant attrition on the Taliban leadership. He also highlights the use of innovative technology like the Predator UAVs and new airborne surveillance systems like the Gorgon Stare. He also highlights the very lethal use of local militias and contrasts this with the banning of the Salwa Judam by the Supreme Court.
US counter-terrorism strategy:
lessons for India
Dr Jagmohan Meher
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Afghanistan
CIA plays a very important role in Afghanistan with the largest Central Intelligence Agency station since the Vietnam War located in Kabul. Apart from its intelligence related responsibilities, the worlds most powerful spy agency command an Afghan paramilitary force in thousands and most part of clandestine war in Pakistan through armed drones is carried out by them. It has been reported that the CIA-directed Afghan militias known as Counter-terrorism Pursuit Teams have carried out a number of secret missions into Pakistans tribal areas
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Afghanistan
announcement
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Afghanistan
The writer has carried out a cogent analysis of the implications of the US withdrawal from Afghanistan upon the principal actors in the region. The number of US troops being left behind would eventually barely be sufficient to protect themselves. Phasing out troops from Afghanistan means that the US and its partners will be unable to prevent an even greater resurgence of the Taliban. The concern expressed by some of the senior American generals towards the withdrawal is therefore justifiable from the military point of view. The forthcoming withdrawal will also lend currency to the perception that the power and influence of the Western world, is on the wane in South Asia and elsewhere. Pakistan has kick-started its military campaign to control Afghanistan by the expulsion of US and British military and intelligence officials from Pakistan. Reports from Kabul also indicate that additional Chinese investments are underway. Given China's special relationship with Pakistan, it was to be expected that good friend Pakistan would canvass support for China. It would be prudent for India to be on the guard against Pakistans designs of unleashing out of job Taliban elements into Jammu and Kashmir.
Lt Gen V K Jetley (retd)
repercussions
in the region
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Afghanistan
India would do well to continue with its efforts to help Afghanistan and not get intimidated by Islamabads machinations in the region. When the withdrawal of the US and its partners gets underway it is possible that military operations in Afghanistan would either get reduced in scale and numbers or escalate. If the former happens then a lot of Taliban elements will be at loose ends. It would not surprise anyone if these out of job elements are used by Islamabad against us. It would be prudent therefore for India to be on the guard against Pakistans designs of unleashing these elements into Jammu and Kashmir
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Afghanistan
Afghanistan
Prof P M Kamath
Convoluted as is the Pakistani military mindset, it has not hesitated to posit China as its new polestar in Afghanistan. It remains to be seen how far Beijing will go along with the terrorism of the Taliban-Al Qaeda combine. Hitherto it has reaped huge geopolitical gains by using Pakistan (and hence its terrorist network) as its forward echelon against India and the US. Now that the faade has been torn away and Pakistan stands exposed as mentor and beneficiary of Taliban / Al Qaeda terrorism the Chinese will have to tread more cautiously in their relations with Pakistan. With drone attacks increasing by the day Pakistan may find itself left with few options by the time Barack Obama makes his bid for a second term in office.
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Pakistans strategy after Osama
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Afghanistan
The US current extreme fulmination against Pakistani duality of going with it as partner in international war on terrorism while promoting actively terrorism against US interests in Afghanistan, seems not to last beyond November 2012 elections. But India should continue to talk to political side of Pakistani government. Though it is not the task of India to promote democracy in Pakistan, if that is going to help Indian national interests, India should do it as it is involved in strengthening democracy in Afghanistan
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Afghanistan
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Afghanistan
A valuable examination of Pakistans stakes and options in Afghanistan. Continued instability in that country will have serious consequences for Pakistan. Its proclivity to overplay its hand and miscalculate its strengths has already fractured its polity, ruined its economy and caused immense suffering to its population. Pakistan no doubt has leverages which it is trying to exploit for achieving its objectives in Afghanistan, some of which are unachievable. It is also trying to exploit its vulnerabilities in a high stakes game of creating strategic depth in Afghanistan. Like many times in the past, it may again miss an opportunity to help in establishment of peace in the region if it continues to play a high stakes, zero-sum game at the cost of all its neighbours. There are limits to the patience of other stakeholders. USA appears to have reset its objectives and draw down of US and ISAF troops is on course. The writer outlines three plausible scenarios that could emerge. A useful exercise in perspective thinking.
Pakistans likely role
Brig Rumel Dahiya (retd)
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Afghanistan
Pakistan appears to be convinced that USA cannot win the war in Afghanistan and the only options available to it are to cut a deal with Taliban with full Pakistani involvement or concede defeat and withdraw after which Pakistani proxies will gain power in any case
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Afghanistan
Even if a Pakistan friendly regime is established in Afghanistan following the final withdrawal of ISAF, Afghan nationalism and Pakistani nationalism will ultimately clash
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Afghanistan
Sandhya Jain
A hard hitting article that provides some penetrating insights into recent events and happenings in Afghanistan. American attempts for a direct deal with the Taliban have raised hackles in Pakistan and Afghanistan. Its attempts to put in place permanent bases in this country have the regional powers worried. Iran has begun to play a more activist role. Most curious are the developments in the eastern Afghan provinces of Kunar and Paktia, from where US forces have pulled out but a whole host of Afghan and Pakistan Taliban groups have moved in and Pakistan has commenced heavy shelling and rocket attacks.
w e N e h T Great Game?
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New Delhi must remember how it allowed Washington to disrupt its traditional ties with Tehran, to no Indian advantage. Tehran is important to Indias energy security, and a major player in Kabul. India needs to disregard Washingtons shifting regional preferences and concentrate on its national interests
Naturally, all major imperial and
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A clinical analysis of President Obamas decision to accelerate the pace of withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan. General Petraeus has said candidly that though the momentum achieved by the Taliban has been arrested in much of the country and reversed in a number of areas, the successes are fragile and reversible. The writer concludes that while President Obamas domestic political compulsions are understandable, militarily the time is not ripe to commence withdrawing forces from Afghanistan.
Brig Gurmeet Kanwal (retd)
US exit strategy:
recipe for instability?
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Afghanistan
Afghanistan
Dr Arvind Kumar
A perceptive article that analyses the likely situation that will emerge in post- withdrawal Afghanistan and the ramifications of President Obamas declaratory strategy. It also examines Indias likely role. It states that the lack of competent security institutions in Afghanistan became the main reason for the continuing crisis. The challenge has always been to create a capable and effective government in Afghanistan. It recommends that India must work to create a regional environment which would be conducive to Afghanistans success. Regional players must desist from the temptation to carve up Afghanistan into local spheres of influence.
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future of Afghanistan: Indias role
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Afghanistan
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Afghanistan
Brig Rahul K Bhonsle (retd)
An interesting article that highlights the onset of a new phase of the Great Game in Afghanistan once the Americans leave in 2014. The writer calls it Great Game Five. He outlines a very cogent strategy for India post the US withdrawal that envisages a combination of hard and soft power aspects. The writer terms it the use of Smart power. He envisages the deployment of Indian troops under the UN flag and calls for the steel plating of our infrastructure?. and Soft power projects in Afghanistan to protect them in the more permissive environment that would result post the draw down of US troops.
Indias smart power strategy

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Afghanistan
Continuing with soft power tools by expanding aid and assistance, building tangible assets and creating favourable human capital in Afghanistan will remain an important part of the overall Indian strategy. Steel plating or hard wiring critical facilities and personnel will assume importance as the security grid may be diffused once ISAF leaves. While the Afghan National Army and Police are evolving rapidly, there will be elements suspect to subversion, thus providing higher levels of security will be necessary
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Afghanistan
Landlocked as Afghanistan is, India is effectively shut out. Pakistan has managed to force on President Hamid Karzai a trade and transit treaty that bans all Indian imports through the Wagah-Attari border on the Indo-Pak salient. India has tried to minimise the effect of this by opening up the Delaram-Zeranj road linking Afghanistan to the Iranian port of Chahbahar. It is still a bridge quite far. The alternative is for India to assert its rights in Jammu and Kashmir peacefully by seeking a
balance between the Sino-Pak road, rail and pipeline connectivity with an assured passage through Pakistan-occupied Kashmir through the Wakhan corridor to Kabul. If it cannot be done peacefully then it better find other ways of getting to Afghanistan because that is where the Great Game is yet to play itself out.
Dr Harsh V Pant
regional rivalries
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Afghanistan
Afghanistan
Maj Gen Afsir Karim (retd) AVSM
need for a regional solution

The writer highlights the need for a regional solution in Afghanistan. Post the assassination of Osama bin Laden, the Pakistani army is under siege and its stock has never been so low. The pity is that the stock of the civil government is even lower. Doubts about the timetable of troop withdrawal have been expressed by many who believe it is too fast and risky to thin out under the present conditions. The Pakistani military leadership is waiting for US withdrawal from Afghanistan so that the field is left wide open for them to install a favourable Taliban regime. India must firmly demand a legitimate role in Afghanistan based on its historical ties with that country and in matters related to trade and transit rights. Much, however, will depend on who eventually takes over the country after the American departure and that will depend on several unpredictable events.
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Afghanistan
"Enforcement is the most crucial element and the most difficult to sustain. After decades of civil war, the parties are unlikely to feel bound by provisions of any agreement. The Taliban especially will try to take over the coalition government or breach the cease-fire. In the absence of a plausible enforcement mechanism, a negotiation with the Taliban, whose forces remain while ours leave, will turn into a mechanism for collapse. An enforcement mechanism can be a residual American force, some international guarantee or presence, or - best - a combination of both. Total withdrawal is likely to be final; there should be no illusion of re-intervention" - Henry Kissinger
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GLOBAL DEFENCE AND SECURITY EVENTS / SHOWS August 2011
Tuesday 9th August 2011 Thursday 11th August 2011 International Symposium on Resilient Control Systems - ISRCS Boise Center on the Grove, Boise, USA Tuesday 9th August 2011 Friday 12th August 2011 Military Vehicles Exhibition & Conference Cobo Center, Detroit, USA Wednesday 10th August 2011 Thursday 11th August 2011 IDGA's MILITARY VEHICLES EXHIBITION & CONFERENCE Cobo Center, Detroit, USA Wednesday 10th August 2011 Friday 12th August 2011 POLICE-TREXPO EAST Dulles Expo & Conference Center, Chantilly, USA Thursday 11th August 2011 Saturday 13th August 2011 GIEPE - China (Guangzhou) International Explosion-proof Electric Apparatus & Technology Exhibition Canton Fair Pazhou Complex, Guangzhou, China Saturday 13th August 2011 Sunday 14th August 2011 Glendale Gun Show - Glendale, CA Glendale Civic Auditorium, Glendale, USA Saturday 13th August 2011 Sunday 14th August 2011 Florida Gun & Knife Shows - Panama City, FL Bay County Fair Ground, Panama City, USA Tuesday 16th August 2011 Sunday 21st August 2011 MAKS Airshow, International Aviation & Space Salon, Zhukovsky, USA Saturday 20th August 2011 Sunday 21st August 2011 MWCA Gun Show Forest Lake Sports Complex, Forest Lake, USA Monday 22nd August 2011 Wednesday 24th August 2011 Armoured Vehicles South Africa Sheraton Pretoria Hotel, Pretoria, South Africa Saturday 27th August 2011 Sunday 28th August 2011 CE Gun Show - Fishersville, VA Augusta Expo Land, Virginia Beach, USA
Prof Chintamani Mahapatra
growing Af-Pak uncertainties

The writer cogently analyses the endgame situation in Afghanistan and examines the likely scenarios that could emerge. Some of these see Pakistan gain its long coveted strategic depth and India almost losing all the investments it has made so far in that country. China, he argues, would retain its three billion dollar investment in Afghanistans copper mines and would gain influence there courtesy Pakistan. However he underlines that other regional players will not easily accept such a scenario. He rightly empahsises the need for a regional solution that avoids the kind of zero sum game that Pakistan is trying to impose.
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Courtesy: Pawitra International Private Limited, New Delhi, India www.pawitra.com
Afghanistan
A large grey area that falls within the best and the worst scenarios is most likely to prevail. The old Taliban is unlikely to return to power. Pakistan will not be allowed a free hand in Afghanistan. Iran, India and Russia will do nothing to isolate and weaken the factions that once came to be known as the Northern Alliance. The Americans will not leave an Afghanistan controlled by forces that could re-stage a 9/11 in the US or against US facilities and interests in various parts of the world. The most likely scenario is creation of a broad-based and ethnically inclusive governing structure through negotiations that would be asked to take charge of the country
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Afghanistan
The writer persuasively argues for a much more robust Indian policy towards Afghanistan which is derived from the compulsions of realpolitik. So far, Indian policy in Afghanistan has remained totally sub-servient to the US-led policy towards Afghanistan. The Taliban has been mounting terrorist attacks on Indian establishments, which are involved in carrying out development activities in that country. The US is ignoring Indias concerns in Afghanistan. Indian policy must take into account the above developments and should change. It is no longer viable or possible to expect the US to maintain huge forces for long period in Afghanistan. A measured pull-out of the US forces will eliminate US remaining dependent on Pakistan for its supply lines and will result in reduced financial aid to Pakistan. Another important role that India has to play is preparing, equipping and training the Afghanistan National Army. Afghans find it easy to train with us. The sooner the Afghan National Army gets ready, better it would be for India. They can then take on the anti-Taliban role which the US is so hesitant to accept.
Lt Gen O P Kaushik (retd)
time for realpolitik: is India ready?
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Afghanistan
We can start our diplomatic efforts with Iran, Russia and the Afghan-bordering Central Asian Republics to prepare a strong anti-Taliban base. Once such a base is ready and effective, the US may also stop yielding to Pakistan pressures in Afghanistan and a strategic unity of purpose may emerge among all these countries. Even China will get affected by events in Afghanistan and a conclave of Afghanistan, Pakistan and India as proposed will become an enlarged one with the inclusion of Russia, China, Iran and nearby Central Asian Republics. Since all major powers of the region will form part of the conclave, along with the US, it will certainly help in evolving a lasting and stable political system for Afghanistan
Afghanistan
Stabilisation of
This article examines the dynamics of inducing stability in Afghanistan. There are two competing groups of nations in this process, nations like Russia, India, Iran and CARs who want Afghanistan to stabilise as a modernist and inclusive State and the other grouping of Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and China, who want the Taliban reinstalled to maximise their geo-political gains. The US has now espoused modest, achievable objectives to ensure the face saving exist from Afghanistan. Americans have argued that State-building and nation-building is not the task of the US army, its sole task is to fight and win war and not build the nation-State. Pakistan is the most significant regional actor and major spoiler. Pakistan treats Islamic extremists as its strategic asset. Strangely, there is complete convergence between the Iran-India-US interests in Afghanistan. All three want destruction of Al Qaeda and Taliban; want to prevent the return of Taliban to power; Western and Iranian interests converge on the issue of drug trafficking emanating from Afghanistan. The Central Asian Republics want stable and strong government in Afghanistan, which can check the radicalisation of the region. The writer contends that there is no such thing as good or soft Taliban. They are by nature hardened criminals and so their integration is fraught with dangers.
Afghanistan
Dr Tej Pratap Singh
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Afghanistan
To succeed, the US has to dump Pakistan-Saudi Arabia and China and extend full support to India-Iran-Central Asian Republics-Russia efforts in the stabilisation of Afghanistan. Iran might be an adversary of the US in Middle East and its nuclear weapon programme has created grave threat to the security of the US and its allies but in Afghanistan there is complete convergence of the US-Iranian interests. At least for Afghan stabilisation, Iran must be engaged by the US. In case of India, the US is ambivalent. It appreciates the Indian contribution in the reconstruction of Afghanistan but under Pakistan pressure demands transparency from India in its developmental projects and suspects the motive of India in Afghanistan
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Afghanistan
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Afghanistan
drugs and instability

An excellent, informative article on the opium and heroin trade that finances the Talibans war in Afghanistan. During the 1980s, opium grown in Pakistani frontier regions accounted for 30 per cent of global heroin supply. By the end of the decade, drug money constituted 25 per cent of Pakistani GDP. Post the Soviet withdrawal, Afghanistan became a giant opium-growing hinterland for Pakistani drug lords. This division of labour, with Afghanistan being the supplier and Pakistan the managerial hub, has persisted ever since. The only change has been the emergence of new supply routes across Central Asia. In terms of volume, the bulk of Afghan heroin still passes through Pakistani territory (40 per cent as opposed to 25 per cent for Central Asia and 35 per cent for Iran). The Afghan drug trade poses a significant, albeit indirect, threat to India. It is a key source of funding for Dawood Ibrahims D Company, which in turn, works closely with Lashkar-e-Toiba.
conundrum
Dr Prem Mahadevan
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Afghanistan
Instead of terrorist funds, what sustained the Taliban occupation of Afghanistan between 1996 and 2001 was drug money the same factor that is fuelling the current Taliban resurgence. Opium and its main derivative, heroin, are the currencies that fill the Taliban war chest. While extortion and donations from wealthy Arab patrons buffer Taliban finances, the single-largest share (between 40 and 60 per cent according to most reports), comes from taxes levied on the drug trade. This trade is a crucial factor in the instability of Afghanistan and its controllers sit on both sides of the Durand Line
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Afghanistan
Th
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eA
fgh
an
N at
With President Obamas announcement of the accelerated schedule of withdrawal of the US-NATO forces from Afghanistan, a key factor for analysis is the state of readiness of the Afghan National Army (ANA) to take over and step into the breach. Is it prepared to undertake stand alone operations in the post withdrawal scenario? It is so far a largely straight-legged infantry force. Pakistan has been insisting that it should have no armour and artillery and India should have no role whatsoever in its raising or training. The writer points out that in 2009 only 34 units of the ANA were deemed fit to operate in a stand alone mode. A very perceptive evaluation of the current state of readiness of the ANA which does raise question marks over the pace of the current troop draw down.
t?
Aditi Malhotra
ion
al
Arm
y: H
ow
pre
pa r
ed
is i
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Afghanistan
Any hasty draw down of troops without strong planning and execution will result in turmoil in the country. This would further jeopardise every effort made by the allied forces till date and revert the country to a post-Soviet era, thus having serious implications for Afghanistan and the regional stability at large
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Afghanistan
Analysts in Europe are looking at the renewed Russian involvement in Afghanistan with trepidation. They recall the ignominy of the withdrawal of troops of the former Union of Soviet Socialist Republics and see no prospect of success even in a purely peacekeeping role for Russian troops in the near future. Nonetheless, none of the nations on the Afghan periphery can afford to remain mute spectators to the very likely return of the Al Qaeda / Taliban combine to Kabul and the relaunch of Islamic fundamentalist terrorists on a global scale more so the Russia of today. If the Chechens receive the military and ideological backing of a Taliban regime in Kabul it could well mean the further fragmentation of the extant Russian Federation as its Muslim-dominated segments fall prey to the pulls and pressures of the new Caliphate.
Dominika Cosic
The first steps of Russian involvement in Afghanistan have already been taken. After many months of negotiations between Kremlin and NATO secretary general, Anders Fogh Rassmusen, Moscow has agreed to help train the Afghan army and anti-narcotics troops. Earlier, Russia allowed the transportation of non-lethal supplies across its territory for the NATO-led International Security Assistance Force in Afghanistan
role of Russia
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Afghanistan
A populace that had been under the thrall of the intolerant Taliban regime is grateful for the kind of assistance that India has provided even in the worst of conditions of intimidation and violence. The Afghan people of any of the several ethnicities that prevail in Afghanistan see in Indias presence in their country a benign and selfless entity. By comparison Pakistan in its rapacity for strategic depth and undeserved sphere of influence is seen as the causal factor for the state of penury that exists across every province in the land. No wonder Pakistan feels threatened.
India: intrepid benefactor

Subimal Bhattacharjee
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Afghanistan
China has so far chosen to get minimally involved in the security sector in Afghanistan. Yet, to the great chagrin of the western States, it has managed to win the most lucrative US$ 3.5 billion contract for the Aynak copper mines, that includes a thermal power station and a railway line to Xinjiang and Pakistan. China is on track to win further contracts for the mining of iron ore and possibly gold and rare earths and metals. Even if the Taliban comes to power post the US withdrawal, Chinese investments would still be safe, courtesy its close relations with Pakistan, the primary mentor of the Taliban.
Dr Monika Chansoria
Chinas conticent presence
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Afghanistan
China has circumspectly aimed at projecting itself as a responsible player on the international stage to bolster its global ambitions. Going by this argument, the Afghan case provides a test for Beijing to play a far more crucial and balanced role as a regional player which simply does not limit / concentrate upon economic benefits, but also engages far more conscientiously while contributing towards the overall socio-political stability in the war-torn nation
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DSA Alert August-2011

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editor-in-chief

August 2011 Defence AND security alert

The country comes first always and every time.

Maj Gen (Dr) G D Bakshi (retd) SM, VSM

August 2011 Defence AND security alert

Volume 2 Issue 11 August 2011

interaction with Afghanistan ambassador

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Interaction with H E Dr Nanguyalai Tarzi

August 2011 Defence AND security alert

August 2011 Defence AND security alert

Ambassador Rajiv Sikri

The other key precondition for

August 2011 Defence AnD security Alert

August 2011 Defence AnD security Alert

Maj Gen (Dr) G D Bakshi (retd) SM, VSM

August 2011 Defence AnD security Alert

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August 2011 Defence AnD security Alert

Dr Ahmad Reza Taheri

Therefore, to the US administration, the destructive role of

August 2011 Defence AnD security Alert

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lessons for India

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Lt Gen V K Jetley (retd)

August 2011 Defence AnD security Alert

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Pakistans strategy after Osama

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The Most Established

Security and Fire Exhibition in South-east Asia

Held in Concurrent with

Safety & Security Asia 2011

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Fire & Disaster Asia 2011

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August 2011 Defence AnD security Alert

Pakistans likely role

Brig Rumel Dahiya (retd)

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August 2011 Defence AnD security Alert

Naturally, all major imperial and

August 2011 Defence AnD security Alert