Gwadar and Global Gaming

By Sabir Ali
"Any nation able to capture Middle East; its canal, coastal areas, and coaling resources,
will ultimately dominates the world." This was predicted by A.T.Mahan, an American
marine strategist, who constructed the term, "Middle East", in 1902.
Comparable to Mahan's naval perception, America's romance to Middle East was
galvanized on March 4, 1937, when Standard Oil Company pumped 3690 barrel crude oil
in the deserts of Damam. Americans are perhaps interested in Middle East, due to its
portrayal in fascinating stories, much before 1776. But today, American stations in
Middle East have purely economic and calculated needs and greed. Although
geographical experts don't take in Pakistan into Middle East, but Gwadar port has gained
more significance than Middle East, for America and rival powers.
Presented as a gift to King of Oman by Khan of Kalat, Gwadar was bought in 1958 by
government of Pakistan. Since then, it remained inattentive as per convention. In 1973,
government of Pakistan sought American finance to build a port in Makran, which was
declined. Since 1990s Gwadar was on government's drawing boards. In 2001, Chinese
government took initiative to construct Gwadar port. From that day Gwadar has been
painted as winner trophy. China, India, Russia, Iran, Japan, America, and many other EU
members found another ground for energetic exercises. At this moment in time, Gwadar
is an economic revival trigger for us but the world, gazing at Gas Republics of Middle
East, definitely has manifold interests. Let me talk about some of them.
Pakistan has two ports, Karachi and Bin Qasim, not including Gwadar. Karachi
became vulnerable in 1973, when Indian missiles found their way to it. This mishap
sensitized the future trade concerns and grim threats, making Gwadar obligatory. With
Chinese financial assistance of 198 million dollars, first phase started at March 22, 2002.
Global trade mostly depends upon sea routes and Gwadar is imperative for transportation
of Central Asian, Middle Eastern natural wealth. Gas fields of Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan,
and Uzbekistan insert other plus points. Gwadar is 250 miles away from Strait of
Hormuz, which contributes 40% to world oil trade. Pakistani trade, likely to grow up to
78 million tons by 2015, 95% of it depends upon sea routes. This expected climb in trade
makes Karachi and Bin Qasim incapable to handle future trade. Natural resources of
Blochistan have also been come under radar because of Gwadar port. 45000 tons
(expected) of Copper, mined from Saindak will fulfill domestic needs and leftover will
earn foreign exchange. Development in road and rail network will enhance exploration
process of diverse natural resources and Gwadar will make its easy access to global
market.
China, in the global state of affairs, has become a challenge to many power players.
Chinese economic roar has fueled its demand for oil and gas, making an active player in
geopolitics. China is now the second largest consumer of oil. In 1995 China's reliance on
oil imports was nothing whereas; in 2004 it was touching 40%. Middle East is at the top,
contributing 50% to Chinese oil and gas imports. Even though, alternatively China is
investing enormous amounts in Venezuela's oil companies and escalating dealings with
African Muslim States, however, Middle Eastern gas is ideal. This is why China invested
both wealth and engineered labor in Gwadar project.
From economic viewpoint, energy security, top most priority in Chinese foreign policy, is
accumulative of three parts; stable and reliable supply, delivery at appropriate destination
and price, and secure routes. As china's current trade routes are increasingly becoming
susceptible, china has mounting distrust in Malacca Strait. For the reason that American
Navy is warming up to play its part, Gwadar is highlighted once more. Evidently, China
is well-off in coal resources and Chinese economy is fueled by this coal, but it has serious
drawbacks and inconveniences, especially SO2 and CO2 pollutants. In this case outside as
well as inside forces will depress the coal practice on environmental issues, compelling to
use imported gas. China also wants to keep an eye on Indian and American navies
through Pakistan.
India, whose 97% trade tankers float across Indian Ocean, is much more anxious by
Gwadar project. Presently, India for her gas demands is ping ponged between two
proposed pipelines. One is IPI (Iran, Pakistan, India), from South Pars to terminals in
Pakistan and India. The other is TAPI (Tajikistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan, India),
transporting gas from Daulet Abad to Delhi. America is against IPI and favors TAPI.
India is aggrieved due to inclusion of Pakistan in both proposals. Naval presence at
Gwadar will entrap India from three sides. So India is trying to influence Afghanistan
going hand in hand with Iran. Assistance in the construction of Dil Aram Highway in
Afghanistan is intended to sidestep Pakistan.
In international relations India is perplexed; good relations with Russia, first choice
America, looking for better relations with China while maintaining army base in
Tajikistan. “If India’s relations are strong with USA, India will be wiped out of Central
Asia”, Russia has threatened.
Chabahar is the only port that is competing with Gwadar. Iran is upgrading it with Indian
collaboration. There are agreements with Pakistan to sell oil and gas at discounted prices
and to provide free electricity at Gwadar. In both cases, Pakistani economy will be
heavily dependent on Iran. Iran is making twofold policies supporting enemies and
friends of Pakistan alike.
American interests in Middle East are so simple: energy, security, and democracy. Four
million barrel per day oil production is expected by 2015 in Caspian region. Historical
conflict with Russia hampers to pass any trade traffic through pro-Russian states. Clinton
Doctrine was that any external power’s attempt to capture Middle East will be considered
direct attack on American interests. Given that America is trying to knock out China from
Malacca Strait, Sino-Russian unity in case of Gwadar cannot be neglected.
Turkmenistan wants to export its oil and gas through Iran, intolerable to America.
Tajikistan has also similar intentions but here, Sher Khan Bridge at Taj-Afghan border is
a barrier, being built by $21million American money. From NATO perspective, in case of
loss of Khyber Pass, Gwadar will be the best alternative. This entire situation obviously
signalizes.
China has planned to build a pipeline from Gwadar to its western autonomous province.
‘Of course, Chinese success depends upon stability of Baluchistan therefore; Beijing
needs tranquil Pakistan for future cooperation.’ Selig H. Harrison had warned in 198, ‘A
glance at the map quickly explains why strategically located Baluchistan (rich in gas, oil,
Uranium, copper) and its five million Baloch tribes could become focal point in
superpowers’ conflict.’
Now it depends upon us to realize whether this focal point is an endowment or ominous
for Pakistan. (1,113 words)

Sabir Ali s/o Ghulam Sarwar

CNIC No. 31103-4376386-3
Cell: 0312-4057033
sabirnastran@gmail.com
Institute of Communication Studies
Punjab University, Lahore