The Royal Society of Edinburgh RSE @ Lochaber Feeding 9 Billion People

Professor Maggie Gill OBE FRSE Friday 14 June 2013, Ben Nevis Hotel, Fort William Report by Kate Kennedy

The human population is expected to reach nine billion sometime around 2050. Given that, even at present, around one billion people dont have enough to eat, how can the world grow enough food to feed nine billion? The talk illustrated the many factors which affect the availability of food (e.g. climate, waste and choice of diet) and gave suggestions on what each of us can do to help ensure that nine billion people can indeed be fed. The current population of the world is just over seven billion people, of which 63 million live in the UK. Projections predict that by 2050, the world population will reach somewhere between nine and ten billion. In recent decades, the population has increased exponentially; in 1750, there were less than one billion people and by 1930, three billion. This rapid increase has been particularly prevalent in developing countries compared to developed countries; indeed, the population of Scotland is fairly static. In the late 1700s, the Reverend Thomas Malthus was the first person to draw attention to the exponential nature of population growth, compared to the linear increase in food supplies. He considered that the Earths resources were limited and this would lead to catastrophes that would in turn limit population growth. Today, the term Malthusian projection is associated with a pessimistic outlook. Experts involved in the agriculture and food production sector largely agree that the world can produce enough food to feed the current seven billion. However, whilst we have not yet experienced the catastrophes predicted by Malthus, the ever-increasing population brings with it cause for concern. In recent decades, issues surrounding food security have been important to governments and individuals; particularly in the early 1970s due to significant food price spikes. Following the introduction of reforms to the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) in the 1980s and 90s, food surpluses were commonplace within the European Union and butter mountains and milk lakes continued to grow and acted as buffers in terms of food price. Today, following further CAP reforms, these surpluses have been depleted and much less food is kept in reserve in Europe. Despite the fact that, between the 1970s and the 1990s, we were able to increase world food production by more than the increase in population, there are currently between 800 million and one billion people in the world who do not have enough to eat and are severely malnourished; reports of stunted children and children whose development is impaired are increasing. Professor Gill commented that further increasing food production levels will be made all the more difficult by changing diets and environmental issues. Climate change causes uncertainty in terms of crop yields, but also means that some of the crop varieties grown in the past can no longer be grown due to changes in temperature.

The pace of climate change has increased in recent years. Whereas in the past farmers have had time to adapt, it is widely recognised that the pace of change today is so fast that we need to up our game in terms of developing the scientific knowledge to ensure we meet these new challenges. Climate change does not only affect food production in developing countries; so far in 2013 it has been reported that one third of the United Kingdoms wheat crop has been lost to the winter floods. Uncertainty in crop yield leads to volatility in prices, which, whilst the UK is not particularly affected due its ability to import food to meet the populations needs, could cause major problems in other nations. In the UK we import a lot of our food, including cereals, fruit and vegetables. Many countries have more arable land and more suitable climates than we do for growing fruit and vegetables all year round and we are, therefore, somewhat dependent upon what happens in these countries. It is difficult, however, to predict where climate change is actually going to have the most impact; scientists are making predictions but nobody really knows what is going to happen. However, it can be predicted that large parts of the world will experience a decrease in crop yield and this will affect us in terms of imports and price. Professor Gill commented that arable food production may actually increase in some developed countries; however, this will be significantly outweighed by decreases in other parts of the world. These statistics are particularly concerning, given that the countries that are likely to experience decreased crop production are also those where population continues to rise most rapidly. Professor Gill noted that the increases in food production in the 1970s and 80s were at the expense of the environment, which at the time made little impact on the political agenda; a situation which has been very different in more recent times. Scientists have been measuring increasing levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere since 1958 and predicting the impact on the climate using mathematical models. However, it was many years before the evidence gathered was put to policy makers, and even longer before the Kyoto Protocol was agreed. Other environmental impacts relating to agriculture include: increased livestock in an area having an impact on the landscape, for example, forested areas being turned in to grassland; occurrences of illegal logging; and water pollution from chemicals and animal effluent. As a member of the European Union, the UK is subject to strong legislation which controls much of the environmental impact. However, in other countries, whilst legislation may exist, the implementation and regulation of this is less stringent. Professor Gill highlighted the potential for increasing food production whilst still having beneficial effects on the environment. She cited an example from Malawi, where a lady farmer had a small plot on which she planted maize but was having difficulty in feeding her family. She was doing some beneficial things for the environment; for example, planting legumes and pigeon peas to improve the soil nitrogen. Having acquired a little more knowledge, she planted five different tree species on the land, which in turn led to a seventeen-fold increase in her maize yield over five years. Because of this, she increased her income and was able to buy additional products for her family, moving in a small way to a market economy. Professor Gill commented that this example shows that a winwin situation can be achieved, increasing production whilst creating a sustainable environment known as sustainable intensification. However, Professor Gill also suggested that, in very recent years, due to the economic crisis in western countries, discussion about the environment has once again taken a slight back seat in political importance in these nations. It is, however, high on the agenda in developing countries, where the impacts of changing climate are increasingly having an impact on the livelihoods of poor people. Furthermore, an additional challenge is the change of diet in some countries with fast rates of economic growth; for example, India and China, where increased wealth

correlates with increased meat consumption. The UKs consumption of meat has remained fairly constant since the 1960s, but has experienced a rise in pig and poultry meat replacing beef and mutton. Intensification of poultry production has brought down the cost of the meat; a trend that is also the case in other countries. Pigs and poultry, however, need a lot of grain in intensive systems, whereas beef and sheep can grow on grass diets. Consequently, large areas of land that were used to grow grain for human food will be used to grow grain for livestock. Growing the crops to be eaten by livestock results in less total food yield than simply growing the grain to feed directly to the human population and, as such, the net contribution of producing meat to food security is considerably lower. Looking forward to 2050, it is projected that we need to increase our total food production by 70%, which includes an extra billion tonnes of cereal grains; half of which is projected to be consumed by livestock. Professor Gill asserted that we need to think about the different types of food we use and consume and think, as individuals, about the resources used in our food production. However, not all livestock farming is bad. In Scotland, there is very little arable land and, therefore, most Scottish beef and lamb is produced directly from the feeding of grass and heather and is therefore not in competition with grain. Different farming systems are appropriate for different areas. In terms of the world as a whole, there is twice as much land under grass than there is under arable production. Therefore, we need to use this land to feed our livestock and convert this into something we can eat. The challenge is that in countries where average income is increasing, people want to eat more meat, which puts more pressure on the environment. There is also a moral dilemma about telling people in other countries that they should not aspire to eat in the same way as we do in developed countries. In 2005, Peter Menzel photographed the weekly consumption of food by families around the world, which were published in the book, Hungry Planet What the World Eats. Professor Gill drew attention to the stark contrast between a Sudanese family living in a refugee camp in Chad and a German family. The Sudanese family subsisted on sorghum, corn, pulses, spices and very little meat and fish, costing little more than $1 per week. Conversely the German family consumed a much more varied diet, including a large amount of processed foods, meat, fruit and vegetables, at a cost of around $500 per week. Professor Gill made the point that it is these huge discrepancies in consumption styles that will cause difficulties in feeding nine billion people; it is not solely a matter of population numbers, but choice of diet and the resources required to meet this. In the last fifty years, processed food has become commonplace in developed countries and meeting this demand uses valuable energy and resources. Additionally, much of the fruit and vegetables eaten year-round in western countries are imported, again having an environmental impact. The current challenge, therefore, is not just how much food we can produce, but how we distribute it more evenly. So, how do we produce more food, improve the distribution of food and protect the environment at the same time? Professor Gill noted that when people talk about sustainable development, they are often considering future generations, but the people alive today are also likely to suffer the consequences if nothing is done to improve food security. Governments across the world are particularly interested in food security; if prices go up and people cant get enough to eat, it can destabilise a country. Governments will take action in such situations; for example, during the food price spikes in 2007, the Indonesian Government stopped the export of rice. These increased prices in 2007 also demonstrated how dependant countries are upon imports; Indonesias decision had an impact around the globe. Furthermore, countries no longer have the buffer supplies of previous decades, which affects the global food price. One of the key things we can do to improve the situation relates to food waste. 8.3 million tonnes of food waste is disposed of annually in the UK which,

in addition to the monetary cost, has an environmental cost in terms of landfill sites. Calculations show that 65% of waste is avoidable; of all food purchased, 17% is not consumed and this doesnt account for the large quantities of food that are wasted by restaurants and hotels. Vegetables, fruit and bread all have high levels of waste; indeed, 32% of bread purchased is not consumed. Fair Trade also has relevance; the proportion of food sold under the Fair Trade label has increased faster in total than that of organic food. This shows that there is a concern in the UK about the moral aspects of food production. Retail sales of Fair Trade have grown to 1.32 billion; indeed, 42% of bagged sugar sold is Fair Trade. Fair Trade is an example of where consumers have changed what is on offer in supermarkets. Professor Gill suggested we should also think about the impact on the environment when choosing the sort of food we eat, particularly with regard to seasonality and origin. For example, salad is now available to purchase all year round; but for this to happen in winter, the salad either has been grown under glass with heating or it has been imported both having negative effects on the environment. Imports of fruit and vegetables can also have negative impacts on the origin countries. For example, Spain has a lack of water, yet uses vast quantities to grow fruit and vegetables to export to other countries. Furthermore, the huge glasshouses used to grow these foods use high amounts of energy and cause light pollution. Professor Gill commented that people acting as individuals and making more thoughtful choices can have an effect on food production and future food security. Professor Gill concluded by restating the key messages; feeding nine billion by 2050 is not just about producing more food, but also about ensuring equitable distribution; thinking about the resources used to produce the food; considering the impact on the environment; and realising we can all make a contribution. We can continue to feed people, but we need to change some of the ways we produce food and need to change the ways we consume food.

A Vote of Thanks was offered by Professor Ian Parsons FRSE

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