editor-in-chief

he Wakhan Corridor connects India to Afghanistan. That is on the maps that India claims to represent its post-1947 boundaries. Until independence in 1947 India and Afghanistan were neighbours, just as with Iran. All that changed on 14 August with the creation of Pakistan, thereby leaving the Wakhan Corridor as the only Indian border with Afghanistan. This too changed when the Pakistan army launched the first of its many operations to wrest Jammu and Kashmir from India. The subsequent ceasefire and the later recognition of a Line of Control between the two countries has altered the boundaries between India and Afghanistan. Between Jammu and Kashmir, India and the Wakhan Corridor now lies the Northern Areas, or Gilgit-Balitstan as the area is now referred to officially.

There are a number of activists from Gilgit-Baltistan who accuse India of ignoring their plight. The accusation revolves around the well documented fact that India has long been focused on what is referred to as Kashmir, under Pakistani occupation or areas that comprise the state of Jammu and Kashmir in India. The activists believe that the tragedy that has befallen the people of Gilgit-Baltistan remains far removed from public discourse and policy formulation. 'If you believe this area to be under the illegal occupation of Pakistan and have a claim on us as Indians, then there is every reason for you to raise your voice in our favour', said one recently in a seminar in New Delhi. It was a compelling argument, for if India claims Gilgit-Baltistan to be a part of Jammu and Kashmir state, which it once was, there is every reason for it to pay greater attention to the people of this area and what has been happening to them.

Since the Siachen battles began in April 1984 the people of Gilgit-Baltistan have been at the receiving end of a brutal policy of subjugation forced through sectarian programmes unleashed by the Pakistan army. Repeated attempts by the Pakistan army to wrest the initiative on Siachen failed. But as the failures mounted so did the atrocities on the hapless people of Gilgit-Baltistan. The well-documented is of course the massacre of Shi'a Baltis in 1988 when the Pakistan army's Brigade Commander was a certain Pervez Musharraf. It is no coincidence that his failure to dislodge the Indian army from its gains on Saltoro and Siachen led to the massacres and his subsequent attempt to take the heights of Kargil and Drass. That too came a cropper and then began the diplomatic attempts to evict India from Siachen. The latest round of talks has just ended in another stalemate in Islamabad.

This only highlights that there is more than a geographical connection between the heights of Siachen and the happenings in Gilgit-Baltistan. Sectarian violence raised its head once again viciously in April when a bus load of Shi'a pilgrims was attacked. This caused a shutdown in Kargil, once again pointing out the deep linkages between the people of this area. It is those linkages that beckon a more informed Indian policy on Gilgit-Baltistan. As the judicious claimant the onus is on India to renew its links with the area and its people. Anything that improves their lives is a better policy than not having one at all. China has quietly stepped into the vacuum that currently exists, raising the stakes for India. If India wants to be a global player it should first begin to play the game in its neighbourhood.

manvendra singh

July 2012 Defence AND security alert

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Team DSA decided to highlight the strategic importance, role of Pakistan and the baleful shadow of China on this region which together are directly going to affect the geopolitics of not only India but the entire South-east Asia and prove deleterious in the times to come. We need to understand the emerging game plan of both to understand their motives to destablise India and create conditions that will severely curtail Indias role and importance in the region. Since Gilgit and Baltistan are sparsely-populated barren lands, then what is the reason that China has been showing so much interest in this region over the past several decades. Let us recollect the historical facts to understand Chinas interest in the region. Historically, the area has been a flashpoint of political and military rivalries amongst the Russian, British and Chinese empires. Rudyard Kipling described it as The Great Game. Immediately after the end of British rule in the sub-continent in 1947, the Muslim-dominated population was instigated by British agents to revolt against the government of the Hindu Maharaja of Kashmir. Since then this region was under the control of Pakistan government who later gifted away the Shaksgam segment on the north to China under the guise of a lease in 1963. Nonetheless the immutable fact remains that Gilgit-Baltistan was an integral part of the kingdom of Jammu and Kashmir which acceded to India in 1948; that Pakistan has no sovereign rights over Gilgit-Baltistan as confirmed by the Pakistan Supreme Court itself and therefore the transfer of Shaksgam to China and Chinas presence in Gilgit-Baltistan is a violation of international agreements, Indo-Pak bilateral agreements as well as the Sino-Pak provisional border agreement of 1963. Since 1963 Chinas involvement in Gilgit-Baltistan has increased multifold and it constructed the Karakoram Highway through this region. China is now planning to improve the infrastructure by constructing a railway and gas and oil pipelines none of which appear to benefit the people of the region but these devlopments are in the interests of the Chinese business groups who are largely involved in the mining business of gold and uranium. Chinese have been building many dams on the Indus River and it is very much evident that the Chinese army personnel disguised as civilians are involved in these activities as they are unable to get the local support from the people of Gilgit and Baltistan. At the Gomal Zam dam site two Chinese engineers were kidnapped and killed. The main reason for such Chinese interest in this region is the huge deposits of minerals, metals and uranium which Pakistan does not have the technology to exploit. Thus they are completely dependent on their all-weather friend China. So in a nutshell, Pakistan is parlaying the assets of the portion of Jammu and Kashmir which it has occupied by subterfuge for Strategic support from China to keep India confined by foreign instigated insurgencies within its homeland. The government of India and the Indian army have taken a strong stand on the Pakistan army chiefs suggestion of demilitarisation of the Siachen Glacier. India must also express its strong protest against the deployment of Chinese army in the name of so-called development works. The Chinese companies are actually the Chinese army engineering corps deployed in the region. Dear readers, team DSA is introducing two columns from this issue on homeland security. One by a highly qualified trainer on all aspects of homeland security and another by a very senior defence and security corporate leader on counter-terrorism and lessons for homeland security. I am sure you will enjoy the new columns. As new paradigms emerge on the defence and security horizon DSA will ensure that you get to read the most incisive and in-depth analyses on the topics of national and global interest. Jai Hind!

Sino-Pak Perfidy: Alarm for India

ot many in India and even in Pakistan know much about Gilgit and Baltistan.

The country comes first - always and every time.

he rising salience of the Gilgit-Baltistan area stems from Chinas muscular forays into this region. Selig Harrison had sent shockwaves by disclosing that 11,000 Chinese troops had entered this disputed region in 2011. Indian military sources place the current Chinese deployment at some 3-4,000 military engineering personnel working feverishly on widening the Karakoram Highway and creating a rail-road-cum-oil and gas pipeline corridor to the strategic Gwadar Port. This will help China bypass the critical Malacca choke point for her energy shipment and shorten the passage from 25 days to just 48 hours. There is also talk of China acquiring the Gilgit-Baltistan area on lease for 50 years. Will it be any surprise therefore if China simply declares a few years down the line that the Gilgit-Gwadar corridor is a core interest, even as Tibet, Taiwan and the South China Sea? There is speculation that the PLAAF may seek air bases at Gilgit, Chilas, Skardu etc. in a hot war scenario. In this issue a number of former Generals, Air Marshals and Admirals take a close look at the Gilgit-Gwadar corridor and the rising strategic salience of the Northern Areas. It is quite apparent that Jammu and Kashmir is fast becoming the theatre of choice for China and Pakistan to spark off a two front war with India. It is in this theatre they can attack India together. Why this sudden barrage of dovish noises from the Pakistani military establishment? The Pakistani civilians are fed up of constant conflict and their attempts to usher peace could help them marginalise and remove the stranglehold of the Pakistani army on its polity. For the time being however, the Pak army has pulled off a soft coup against PM Gilani and clearly shown who is in charge. What, however, are the motivations of the Pakistani army to seek peace now? The motivations are simple. With the US troop withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2014, the Pak army senses a historic opportunity to reduce Afghanistan to a vassal status and acquire its dream strategic depth. For this they need a temporary truce on their Eastern Front with India. Hence the Peace Blitz. On 7th April this year, the Pakistani army suffered a painful disaster in the Siachen Front. A major avalanche-cum-mud slide wiped out the Battalion HQ and Adm Base of the 6 Northern Light Infantry unit at Ghyari. Despite help from the Chinese, American and European rescue teams, not a single body could be recovered. The entire adm base, helipads and road infrastructure have been wiped out. The Pakistani forward troops below our Saltoro positions are now in a pitiable state. Their Siachen positions in the Central Glacier (especially at Bilafond La, Ali Brangsa are fast becoming untenable for the Pakistani army. If the Pakistani army cannot take it anymore, why dont they withdraw unilaterally? Their military and civilian sPoKesmen are claiming repeatedly that the area has no strategic significance whatsoever. Why then did they start the orographic aggression? They started the race for Saltoro and lost it. If this area really has no strategic significance - they are free to withdraw unilaterally. The insistence that India vacate its hard won edge is too clever by half. With the new China-Pak line up in Baltistan, it would be unwise for India to open its flanks to this pincer. Actually, what makes it worse for the Pak army is the fact that the Northern Light Infantry (NLI), which has borne the brunt of the casualties in Kargil and Siachen, has 49 per cent Shias, 23 per cent Ismailis and just 18 per cent Sunnis. 55 per cent of the Shias hail from the Gilgit area, 35 per cent from Baltistan. The Shias have been facing relentless persecution. In 1989, Gen Pervez Musharraf had brought in the blood thirsty Sunni Pathans to terrorise the Shias into submission. In the Kargil conflict the Pak army disowned the dead Shia troopers of the NLI and over 600 had to be buried by the Indians. The Anti-Shia pogrom continues. On 28 February this year, 18 Shia pilgrims were pulled out of buses and massacred in Pakhtunkhwa province. On 03 April 15-20 Shias were killed in Chilas and 50 were wounded. This led to riots where more Shias were killed. The Avalanche on 07 April therefore came as a climactic finale which shook the Shia troops. The legend of the Teram Shehr town, which was wiped out in a terrible avalanche, lives on in the folklore of Baltistan. The Shia troops are uneasy and restive and their Sunni commanders are deeply worried. That is why Gen Kayani was unnerved by the recent avalanche and the impact it has had on the unfortunate Shia troops of the NLI. That explains his smart moves to use the Indian softness in the head to get the Indian army off the Saltoro Ridge, which it had secured at such heavy cost in blood and treasure. Now we have mastered the logistical and environmental problems and can stay on, if need be, forever. If the Pakistani army has had it, they can withdraw and Indians will not interfere with their retreat in any way. The problem is their over-cleverness and lack of sincerity, based on the quest to gain an upper hand in Afghanistan by encouraging peace noises on the Eastern Front. The real problem is, this is a tactical gambit and not a sincere desire for peace. Hence, it would be foolish for us to get carried away by the gush of the "Aman Ki Asha brigade". We need to look at the overall geo-political scenario that will emerge in the wake of the US withdrawal in 2014 and the burning desire of some to give Pakistan a free hand to shape outcomes in Afghanistan is suicidal to say the least. Jammu and Kashmir and not Arunachal is the most likely theatre for the next two front war. Sino-Pak preparations / motivations to attack jointly here are plainly visible. The time is most inappropriate to lower our guard and accept that recipe for disaster dished out by our interlocutors. In the Features section of this issue we also cover the change of guard at the Army HQ. Team DSA welcomes Gen Bikram Singh and speculates about the agenda that he could / should set for himself - especially in terms of speedily addressing the hollowness in the armys arms and ammunition procurement, as also stemming the distressing frequency of scams that have left us all a bit bewildered. In this onerous task he needs the support of one and all.

disclaimer all rights reserved. reproduction and translation in any language in whole or in part by any means without permission from Defence and Security Alert is prohibited. opinions expressed are those of the individual writers and do not necessarily reflect those of the publisher and / or editors. all disputes are subject to jurisdiction of delhi courts.
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Maj Gen (Dr) G D Bakshi SM, VSM (retd)

July 2012 Defence AND security alert

pawan agrawal

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contents
Gilgit-Baltistan Special Issue July 2012

An ISO 9001:2008 Certified Magazine

Vo l u m e 3 I s s u e 1 0 J u l y 2 0 1 2

A R T I C L E S the unfolding great game in Gilgit-Baltistan: India needs to safeguard its security interests
Dr Arvind Gupta and Dr Ashok Behuria

C O L U M N S insurgencies and collective consciousness Dr Rupali Jeswal counter terrorism: global learnings Dr Vivek Lall

30 34

the Siachen imbroglio

Lt Gen Arvind Sharma PVSM, AVSM, VSM (retd)

12 16 22 27 38 41

the Gwadar-Karakoram-Xinjiang corridor plaaf-paf nexus in PoK

Vice Admiral Vijay Shankar PVSM, AVSM, ADC (retd) Air Vice Marshal A K Tiwary VSM (retd)

F E A T U R E S change of guard: the Indian army Maj Gen (Dr) G D Bakshi SM, VSM (retd) Indian army: new coas has his work cut out ... Brig Gurmeet Kanwal (retd) NATO summit- 2012 road ahead Dominika Cosic

70 74 77

red dragon in Indias north-west

Lt Gen Kamal Davar PVSM, AVSM (retd)

prison radicalisation: a global problem

Patrick Dunleavy

the red shadow in Gilgit-Baltistan: security implications for India

Pallavi Ade

would Gwadar slacken the sloc noose at malacca for China?

Rear Adm (Dr) S Kulshrestha (retd) Nitin Gokhale

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Gilgit-Baltistan-Gwadar: the vital Chinese artery Siachen magnanimity another Himalayan blunder?
Col Utkarsh S Rathore (retd) Cecil Victor

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geo-political dance macabre strategic importance of Gilgit-Baltistan region

Maj Gen Afsir Karim AVSM (retd) Col J P Singh (retd)

Gilgit-Baltistan on the boil Gwadar port: Indias achilles heel

Rahul Mishra and Sana Hashmi

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July 2012 Defence AND security alert

July 2012 Defence AND security alert

Gilgit-Baltistan

ALARMING DEVELOPMENTS

A
Dr Arvind Gupta The writer an IFS officer is presently on deputation to the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA), New Delhi, India as Lal Bahadur Shastri Chair in Strategic and Defence Studies. Prior to joining the IDSA, he was Joint Secretary at the National Security Council Secretariat. At the IDSA he heads the South Asia and Internal Security Clusters and edits the Institutes flagship bi-monthly journal Strategic Analysis.

new great game is beginning to take shape around Gilgit-Baltistan which is situated in a strategically pivotal area, at the confluence of central, west, east and south Asia. For China it is a crucial link to the Arabian Sea and a strategic outpost against regional powers like India. The Chinese efforts to access the Arabian Sea through Gwadar Port by developing road and railway links are being put under the scanner, especially after media reports since 2010 that the Chinese are stationing their troops and building critical infrastructure for strategic use. The recent reports of Pakistan considering proposal to lease out Gilgit-Baltistan to China for a period of 50 years in a local newspaper Roznama Bang-e-Sahar (13 December 2011) has raised the level of anxieties even further.

India Needs to Safeguard its Security Interests

The Unfolding Great Game in Gilgit-Baltistan:

Dr Ashok Behuria The writer is Fellow and Coordinator, South Asia Centre at IDSA. He is also coordinating the activities of the Project on Pakistan occupied Kashmir (PoK) at IDSA.

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ALARMING DEVELOPMENTS

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PARAMOUNTCY OF NATIONAL INTEREST

s it only our responsibility to try and reduce the trust deficit with Pakistan? Why should resolution of the Siachen issue precede other issues? Is it to fulfil a personal agenda of some elements in the two countries? Whatever be the case, we must deal with this issue with prudence. Any agreement on the Siachen issue must incorporate the following - the AGPL must be authenticated on maps related to present deployment of armies of both the countries; it must also be unequivocally stated that at no stage in the future,would any of the armies deploy on the Saltoro Ridge; adequate implementable safeguards need to be built into the agreement. Secondly, resolution of Siachen must never be considered in isolation; it must form part of the resolution of entire Kashmir. In the absence of resolution of the boundary issue with both Pakistan and China, vacating posts on the Saltoro Ridge would be committing hara-kiri. We also need to guard against the proclivity of our political leadership to give away at the negotiating table what has been gained on the battlefield, at the cost of lives of our soldiers. Very sage counsel from a former GOC of 14 Corps who was subsequently The Army Commander of Eastern Command.

THESIACHENIMBROGLIO

Lt Gen Arvind Sharma PVSM, AVSM, VSM (retd) The writer is a former General Officer Commanding-in-Chief of the Eastern Army Command. His operational responsibility encompassed borders with China, Myanmar and Bangladesh; all troops including Assam Rifles deployed in the north-eastern states for counter-insurgency operations were part of his command. An infantry officer, in his four decades plus of service in the Army, he has dealt with insurgency in Jammu and Kashmir and the north-eastern states.

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PARAMOUNTCY OF NATIONAL INTEREST

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STRATEGIC MOSAIC
n 1963, Pakistan ceded more than five thousand square kilometres of territory in the Karakoram region of Pakistan occupied Kashmir (PoK). This accommodated the construction of the Karakoram Highway that links Chinas Xinjiang region through the Khunjerab Pass with Pakistans Gilgit-Baltistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa regions. Started in 1959 and completed in 1979, the 1,300 km highway connects Kashgar with Islamabad and traverses some of the worlds most hostile terrain. This energy channel serves to provide an efficient alternative to the exposed and vulnerable sea passage through the Malacca / Sunda / Lombok Straits. At the southern end of the Karakoram corridor is Gwadar Port on the Arabian Sea. Pakistan has urged China to use and take maximum benefits from the Gwadar Port. For China, it is this factor of securing the right of passage in this troubled region that is of critical consequence. The Port of Gwadar with all its geostrategic features provides to its nascent blue water navy a reach and control capability that would assure security of its energy lines and sanctuary to its raw materials emanating from Africa. It is towards this end that Chinese strategic policy is directed. A former head of Indias Strategic Forces Command takes a close look at Chinas Malacca Bypass strategy.

The Gwadar-Karakoram-Xinjiang Corridor

Vice Admiral Vijay Shankar PVSM, AVSM, ADC (retd) The writer holds an MSc in Defence Studies and is a graduate of the Naval War College, Newport, Rhode Island, USA. He is the former Commander-in-Chief of the Andaman and Nicobar Command, C-in-C of the Strategic Forces Command and Flag Officer Commanding Western Fleet. His Command and operational experience are comprehensive and include Command of INS Viraat the aircraft carrier. He is a member of the adjunct faculty of the National Institute of Advanced Studies and he currently tenants the Admiral Katari Chair of Excellence at the United Services Institute.

Country

Economic type
Oil export Diversified economy Oil export Oil export Diversified economy Oil export Oil export Oil export Diversified economy Agriculture

Average annual trade, 2006-2010

18,627 166,86 6,445 5,774 5,384 4,155 4,154 3,241 2,548 2,097

(US$ million)

Share in total ChinaAfrica trade

21 per cent 18 per cent 7 per cent 6 per cent 6 per cent 5 per cent 5 per cent 4 per cent 3 per cent 2 per cent 76 per cent

Angola South Africa Sudan Nigeria Egypt Algeria Libya Republic of the Congo Morocco Benin

Weight of top ten trading partners in total China-Africa trade

Table 1: Chinas top 10 trading partners in Africa. Source: Capital Week

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STRATEGIC MOSAIC

Map 1: Chinas Oil Pipeline Import Options. Source: Michael Rodgers PFC Energy 2009-2010

1. Coakley, Robert W. Global Logistics and Strategy Chap 9: The Persian Corridor, Washington 1955. 2. Dasgupta, Saibal. Times of India e-newspaper 07 July 2010, China Plans Railway Link with Pakistan. 3. Newspaper, Daily Time Islamabad, 03 January 2010.

4. Newspaper, Asia Times, 09 May 2010. 5. LA Times 14 Mar 2012, Chinese bank pulls out of Pakistan-Iran pipeline project. 6. All statistics in this section from US Energy Information Administration 2010. 7. OMeara, Dina. Calgary Herald, 27 July 2010 US delays decision on Keystone XL. All computations and extrapolations are based on authors estimates. July 2012 Defence AND security alert

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STRATEGIC MOSAIC

8. Gwadar Fact Sheet, development and operations of the Port of Gwadar 2009. gwadarcity.info 9. Shahid, Saleem. Dawn e-news 14 May 2012, Review of Gwadar Port Feasibility Report Urged. 10. Reuters. Dawn e-news 08 Dec 2010, Supreme Court hears challenge to PSA deal. 11. Tom Wright, Jeremy Page, The Wall Street Journal 30 Sep 2011, China Pullout Deals Blow to Pakistan. Ali, Kalbe. Dawn e-news 22 May 2011 China Agrees to run Gwadar Port. 12. Corbett, Julian S. Some Principles of Maritime Strategy, Longmans Green and Co. London, 1911, p 88-90.

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SINO-PAK MACHINATIONS

A
Air Vice Marshal A K Tiwary VSM (retd) The writer commanded a MiG-29 Squadron in late 80s. His various command and staff appointments like Chief Operations Officer at a major Wing, operational planning at Command level, Director Concept Studies at Air HQ, Command of a major flying base, Head of the Training Team (Air) at Defence Services Staff College and Senior Directing Staff (Air) at National Defence College have conferred a rich practical experience. The air staff course at DSSC Wellington (TN), Command and Air War Course at the Air University, Maxwell Airbase, Montgomery (USA), all inducted and accelerated his interest in air war studies. After premature retirement he now flies as Commander on Boeing 737-800 NG.

very incisive article that highlights the possibility of Pakistan handing over its critical airbases of Gilgit, Skardu, Chilas, Chitral and Muzaffarabad to the PLAAF in the context of a two front war with India. The writer points out the existing air power constraints that China suffers in the Western Sector of Tibet and Jammu and Kashmir because it has only two Airbases in this sector. In the western area opposite Jammu and Kashmir China has airfields at Kashgar and Khotan. These are 800 km and 600 km away from Indian bases. This drawback can be overcome by using the Pakistani airbases in Gilgit-Baltistan and PoK. This adds a new and very dangerous dimension to the Sino-Pak nexus in this vital region.

PLAAF-PAF

NEXUS in PoK

Aircraft / Missiles
SU-30 MK SU-27/J 11 J-10 JH-7A J-8 II J-7 H-6 Cruise Missiles TBMs

Quantity
100 171 80 70 180 471 57 In thousands In thousands

Role
AD/GA AD/GA AD/GA GA AD AD Bomber Ground launched Conventional warhead

Remarks
200 more to come Production rate to go up. Indigenous. Indigenous Indigenous Indigenous ALCM armed

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SINO-PAK MACHINATIONS

2. IDSAs China Report-2011.

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SINO-PAK MACHINATIONS

Gilgit-Baltistan

RED DRAGON ININDIASNORTH-WEST

CHINESE PLOT

Lt Gen Kamal Davar PVSM, AVSM (retd) The writer is a distinguished soldier having served in all theatres of operations in his 41 years of service. A veteran of the 65 and 71 operations, he was wounded in action in the 1965 ops. He was the first armoured corps officer to be specially selected to be GOC Ladakh where he implemented many innovative operational and logistical innovations. He has been Chief of Staff of a Corps HQ in Jammu and Kashmir and then as GOC 11 Corps responsible for the defence of Punjab. He was especially selected by the Government of India to raise the Defence Intelligence Agency after the Kargil war. After retirement he writes and lectures on security issues. He is widely known to passionately espouse the cause of jointness in the Indian Armed Forces. As the first DG DIA, many intelligence initiatives including abroad were taken by him.

Airbase
Kashgar Khotan Shiquanhe Skardu Gilgit Chilas Muzaffarabad Chitral Rawalkot

Runway Length
2800 m 2860 m 3000 m 3600 m 2680 m 1500 m 1250 m 2000 m 1480 m

Elevation
1200 m 1380 m 4240 m 2300 m 1500 m 1100 m 800 m 1400 m 1600 m

Remarks
800 km. POL storage exists. 600 km. Rw appears as a road. 300 km PAF base In PoK In PoK In PoK In PoK In PoK

outh Asia scholar Selig Harrison was the first to break the news in August 2010 in The New York Times that an estimated 7,000-11,000 Chinese Peoples Liberation Army soldiers were deployed in Gilgit-Baltistan in the guise of engineering personnel and civil labour. Pakistan, of course, unconvincingly stated that China had sent a humanitarian team to Gilgit-Baltistan to assist in flood relief operations! Harrison succinctly termed this development as the unfolding of a quiet geopolitical crisis, India will do well to monitor the ever enlarging Chinese footprint in its north-west regions for now India will have to manage another front on its troubled peripheries with both China and Pakistan in unholy concert. As we delve deeper into the happenings of the last two years in Gilgit-Baltistan, it will be amply clear to all that in keeping with its long-term objectives, Chinas growing assertiveness in South Asia is not only manifesting itself in Afghanistan, awaiting the exit of US troops by 2014, but right across Indias north-west periphery in the area of Gilgit-Baltistan and the rest of PoK as also Balochistan which is up in arms against its own government. Since the last couple of years, the Chinese centre of gravity in land operations has been increasingly getting oriented towards Jammu and Kashmir and this is the sector where China and Pakistan could together plan to attack India if the need for them ever arises.

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homeland security

HOLISTIC ANALYSIS

Insurgencies and
Collective

The columnist is an Intelligence and Terrorism Analyst, Clinical Psychologist and Clinical Hypnotherapist based in South-East Asia. She has also received training in specialsed areas including counter-terrorism, intelligence and tactical operations. She specialises in cognitive learning processes and neural pathway response and how these factors apply to specialised trainings. She is an expert in the field of non-verbal micro and macro expression for deception and detection and also using non-verbal assets for psychological self-assessment in conjunction with Emotional Intelligence to enhance the human mind, personality, image and spirit. She is a member of ICPA (International Corrections & Prisons Association), IACSP (International Association for Counter-Terrorism and Security Professionals) and a member of APA (American Psychological Association), APP (Association of Professional Psychologists), UK Certified Hypnotherapist and General Hypnotherapy Register.

Consciousness

Dr Rupali Jeswal

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HOLISTIC ANALYSIS

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LESSONS FOR ALL

Effective counter-terrorism strategy

An effective counter-terrorism strategy based on domestic, regional and global threat perception is vital. Such a strategy should be articulated in clear terms to avoid mis-interpretations by stakeholders at the federal as well as at the state levels. The strategy should incorporate multi-dimensional threats and lay out comprehensive national objectives. A regular review of the strategy should become part of the strategy itself.

Counter Terrorism:
Global Learnings

The columnist is President and Chief Executive Officer, New Ventures, Reliance Industries Limited and Distinguished Fellow, Observer Research Foundation. Earlier he was Vice President and Country Head, Boeing Defence Space and Security and had also served as Managing Director of Boeing Commercial Airplanes in India. Prior to Boeing he worked for Raytheon and with NASA Ames Research Center in various multidisciplinary engineering fields. He has his PhD in Aerospace Engineering from Wichita State University in Kansas and his MBA from City University in Washington. He served as Chairman of the Defence Committee of the Association of Chambers of Commerce and Industry of India (ASSOCHAM). He also served as the Chairman, Defence Equipment Committee, AMCHAM and is on the panel of the FICCI Defence Task Force. He had the distinct honour of representing 2,500 companies as Regional President of the Indo-American Chamber of Commerce, the only US-India bilateral chamber. In April 2012, he has been appointed as Chairman of the Indo-US Strategic Dialogue by the Indo-American Chamber of Commerce.

Some countries that have succeeded in controlling terrorist attacks include France, England, Germany, USA and, nearer

Dr Vivek Lall

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LESSONS FOR ALL

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JIHADI TENTACLES

Patrick Dunleavy The writer is the former Deputy Inspector General for the New York Correctional System and author of The Fertile Soil of Jihad. He has also written for the Washington Times and the New York Post and teaches a class at the United States Military Special Operations School. Following September 11, 2001, at the request of various international agencies he has been a speaker on the topic of terrorist recruitment to organisations such as the FBI, CIA, Scotland Yard and Canadian Intelligence Services.

The writer, a former Deputy Inspector General for the New York Correctional System, provides chilling examples of radicalisation of prisoners while serving their prison sentences.He highlights the need to monitor such prisons and also address the sizable prison population who are most susceptible to radicalisation. Those common criminals who if left to themselves will only progress from bad to worse. Whether this is done by de-radicalisation programmes or counter radicalisation programmes is open for debate.

Prison Radicalisation:

A Global Problem

1. http://intelwire.egoplex.com/padilla011104.html 2. http://www.justice.gov/usao/ilc/press/2009/09September/24Finton.html 3. http://www.fbi.gov/newyork/press-releases/2009/nyfo052009.htm 4. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/1783237.stm

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JIHADI TENTACLES

Gilgit-Baltistan

DEVIOUS GAME PLAN

Pallavi Ade The writer is currently the Publications Manager at Centre for Land Warfare Studies (CLAWS), New Delhi. Before joining CLAWS, she has worked with Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security (RUSI), London. At RUSI, she researched on India and its neighbourhood and also worked as project manager for projects related to India. She has completed her MA in International Studies and Diplomacy from School of Oriental and African Studies (SOAS) in London. Her current research interests lie in strategic aspects of Indian Defence, India's defence modernisation and study of India's relations with its neighbours.

The Red Shadow in Gilgit-Baltistan:

Security Implications for India

C

5 . http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/email_news/6634901.stm 6 . http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-17456541 7 . http://www.jamestown.org/programs/gta/single/?tx_ttnews%5btt_ news%5d=853&tx_ttnews%5bbackPid%5d=181&no_cache=1 8 . http://www.historycommons.org/context.jsp?item=a02wtcbombersencourageqihad#a0 2wtcbombersencourageqihad

hinas increasing presence in the Gilgit-Baltistan region will complicate the Kashmir dispute for India, changing it from a bilateral concern into trilateral one. In the future, given the proximity Pakistan enjoys with China, it might demand a seat at the discussion table for China, on the Kashmir issue. Indian officials need to start taking these developments in Gilgit-Baltistan seriously as Chinas presence in the region has long term strategic and security implications for India. China is jockeying to be a major power in the region due to the strategic location of Gilgit-Baltistan which would give China a shorter access route to Middle-East and Africa, where most of its oil-resources come from. This would reduce Chinas dependency on the Sea Lines of Communication (SLOC) which pass through the narrow Malacca Strait.
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DEVIOUS GAME PLAN

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NEW EL DORADO?
il tankers from Gulf transit about 6,000 nm and those from the African coast transit about 10,000 nm before they discharge their energy cargo at Chinese ports. Both the tanker routes have to pass through Malacca Straits in addition to problem zones in their respective routes. If tankers can unload at Gwadar, they would have to travel only about 680 nm from the Gulf and about 3,000 nm from African coast. To overcome this major strategic vulnerability, China is making major investments in the Karakoram-Gwadar corridor. This explains the upsurge of Chinese activity in the Gilgit- Baltistan region and the Gwadar Port. In 2008 the then chief of Naval Staff, Indian navy Admiral Sureesh Mehta said Gwadar could be used by Pakistan to take control over the world energy jugular. This port and corridor pose a major threat to Indias energy security and would have grave implications in any two front war.

WOULD GWADAR SLACKEN THE SLOC

NOOSE AT MALACCA FOR CHINA?

Rear Adm (Dr) S Kulshrestha (retd) The writer has held the post of Director General Naval Armament Inspection at the NHQ prior to his superannuation. He is an ardent exponent of indigenisation and self-reliance in the field of military weapon systems and armament.

1. Robert D. Kaplan, Pakistans Fatal Shore, The Atlantic ,May 2009 http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2009/05/pakistan8217-s-fatal-shore/7385/ 2. Bulent Gokay, Caspian Uncertainties: Regional Rivalries and Pipelines Journal of International Affairs, Ankara, Volume, 3, No. 1, 1998, p. 49 3. Alam Shah. Pipeline Politics in the Caspian Basin. Strat Analysis, January-March 2002, p. 8 4. Shah Alam, Pipeline Politics in the Caspian Basin Strategic Analysis, January-March 2002,

5. Ibid.

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NEW EL DORADO?

6. Ziad Haider, Balochis, Beijing and Pakistan's Gwadar Port, Georgetown Journal of International Affairs, 2005, 95-112, 95 7. ibid 8. Robert D. Kaplan, Pakistans Fatal Shore, The Atlantic ,May 2009 http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2009/05/pakistan8217-s-fatal-shore/7385/ 9. Saleem Shahid, Gwadar Project Launched: Musharraf Lauds China's Assistance, Dawn, March 23, 2002. 10. Nirupama Subramanian, Musharraf cites Bhindranwale's killing, The Hindu, October 12, 2006.

11. Abdus Sattar Ghazali, India Alarmed as Chinese Built Gwadar Port of Pakistan Becomes Operational, Countercurrents.org, February 8, 2008 12. Ni Lexiong: Sea Power and Chinas Development, the Liberation Daily, 17, April, 2005

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NEW EL DORADO?

Gilgit-Baltistan

INDIAN SECURITY CONCERNS

GILGIT-BALTISTAN-GWADAR:

THE VITAL CHINESE ARTERY

Nitin Gokhale The writer, a journalist with 28 years of experience behind him in various conflict theatres, is currently NDTV's Security and Strategic Affairs Editor.

ew York Times columnist Selig Harrison has argued that it takes 16 to 25 days for Chinese oil tankers to reach the Gulf through the circuitous sea route whereas if there is a high speed rail or road link, the time taken to transport cargo across the Karakoram Highway is 48 hours. The aim would be to get to the Chinese-built Pakistani naval bases at Gwadar, Pasni and Ormara, just east of the Gulf, within 48 hours. Chinas immediate access and permanent presence in the Persian Gulf is a serious security concern for India which imports 70 per cent of oil from the Gulf. It is this Chinese Malacca Bypass strategy that explains the rising strategic salience of the Gilgit-Baltistan region. It is this region which serves to provide China with an opening to the Gulf. It is amazing that segments of the Indian state are now getting so keen to offer Pakistan major concessions in this vital region.

13. Annual Report to Congress, Military Power of the Peoples Republic of China 2007,(Washington, DC: Office of the Secretary of Defence, 2007). 14. Corey S. Johnston, Transnational Pipelines And Naval Expansion: Examining Chinas Oil Insecurities In The Indian Ocean, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA, June 2008.

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INDIAN SECURITY CONCERNS

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BEWARE SINO-PAK ANIMUS

otaries of peace at any cost with Pakistan tend to forget that Siachen means convergence of strategic interests of Pakistan and China against India. Like Pakistan, China also considers its boundary issue with India in the same sector as unsettled. Indian withdrawal from Siachen without iron-clad guarantees would mean linking up of Chinese-held Shaksgam Valley with Pakistan-held Gilgit-Baltistan through a trans-Karakoram movement of troops. Today the Indian army is deployed on Saltoro Range and controls major passes such as Turkistan La (connecting Shaksgam Valley with Siachen), Indira Col, Sia La, Bilafond La. Downgrading Siachens strategic importance just to facilitate demilitarisation will not only nullify Indian armys hard-fought advantage over Pakistan and China but also jeopardise defence of Aksai Chin, Turtuk and Leh sectors in the long-term. Indians have a knack of throwing away advantages.

SIACHEN MAGNANIMITY
ANOTHER HIMALAYAN BLUNDER?

Col Utkarsh S Rathore (retd) The writer was commissioned into Maratha Light Infantry in 1980. He has served in high altitude areas and counter-insurgency operations. He commanded an infantry battalion during Operations Rakshak and Parakram. He is a defence and security expert and threat and risk analyst.

Map-1

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BEWARE SINO-PAK ANIMUS

Map-2 Showing India and Pakistan Positions Along Actual Ground Position Line in Siachen Sector

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BEWARE SINO-PAK ANIMUS

Gilgit-Baltistan

SINO-PAK PLAYGROUND

Geo-political dance macabre

he situation in Gilgit-Baltistan attained such alarming proportions for the Pakistan-China entente cordiale that Beijing insisted that the security of the Karakoram Highway be transferred to the Peoples Liberation Army. This happened when the local population began to refuse to work on the Chinese aided project of expansion and upgradation of the Karakoram Highway with plans unveiled for railway line and gas and oil pipelines to run along it. Increasingly frequent demonstrations have blocked traffic on portions of the highway that are not affected by the landslide of 2010 that created a huge lake north of Gilgit at Attabad. China deployed (by US Central Intelligence Agency estimates) up to 9,000 personnel into the Northern Areas along the Karakoram Highway disguised as labourers and engineers. The situation in Baltistan is turning serious and merits a close watch by all those concerned with security in South Asia.

Cecil Victor The writer has covered all wars with Pakistan as War Correspondent and reported from the conflict zones in Vietnam, Laos and Cambodia in South East Asia as well as from Afghanistan. He is author of India: The Security Dilemma.

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SINO-PAK PLAYGROUND

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REGIONAL PERSPECTIVE

Maj Gen Afsir Karim AVSM (retd) The writer is a well known retired Indian army general and a military scholar who has authored several books on strategic affairs and military studies. He is a graduate of the Defence Services Staff College, Wellington and the National Defence College.

GILGIT-BALTISTAN

STRATEGIC IMPORTANCE OF

REGION

he writer, a reputed military analyst, provides a regional perspective to the Gilgit-Baltistan issue. The Gilgit-Baltistan region is the next door neighbour of Central Asia, Afghanistan, Xinjiang and Tibet. China has no intention of settling the border issue in a hurry and if our troops are pulled out from the glacier area it will make a link between China and Pakistan across the Karakoram Pass much easier. In these circumstances we cannot afford to vacate our positions from the Saltoro Ridge or base areas under any agreement to earn Pakistans goodwill; we will in fact need to strengthen the entire Shyok Valley sector from Daulat Beg Oldi to Turtuk and the entire Ladakh range particularly the Khardungla Pass to safeguard our areas. It is essential that India evolves a policy process that provides it a viable solution for safeguarding its national interests in view of the aggressive Chinese-Pakistani postures in this region.

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REGIONAL PERSPECTIVE

Gilgit-Baltistan

HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE

n interesting article on the Gilgit-Baltistan region. The writer provides an essential historical perspective and highlights the sharp sectarian fault lines that have riven this region. He recounts how till 1988 the people of Gilgit-Baltistan boldly fought for their democratic rights. Gen Zia-ul-Haq subverted their campaign by clamping martial law and dividing them on sectarian lines. Gen Zia posted Brig Musharraf (the architect of Kargil and later President of Pakistan) to suppress this regional uprising. Killing and vandalising the minorities is getting institutionalised in Pakistan. People have been attacked and butchered in mosques, schools, hospitals, in buses and other public places. Administration is paralysed in various towns and cities which emboldens brutalities and benefits terrorists and further creates unrest in the region. Sectarian killings in Gilgit-Baltistan have evoked reactions in Kargil and many places of Pakistan.

ON THE BOIL A

GILGIT-BALTISTAN
Col J P Singh (retd) The writer was commissioned in 4 BIHAR on 13 June 1971 from IMA Dehradun. He took part in 1971 war in Poonch sector of Jammu and Kashmir and later served in IPKF in Sri Lanka. On ERE, as a Capt served in Infantry School Mhow in the Weapons Wing, as a Major in NDA Khadakwasla as Squadron Commander and as Lt Col in Infantry School Belgaum as Senior Instructor and staff of HQ 26 Inf Div. As Col served in the NCC in Odisha and Maharashtra and in the staff at HQs Northern Command.

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HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE

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HIDDEN AGENDA
o other place has created as much anxiety in Indian corridors of power as the Gwadar Port. India maintains N that the port is a further step to strengthen the so-called Sino-Pakistan alliance. It has also been argued that motives behind the construction of the Gwadar Port were not simply economic but they have concealed expansionist, political and militaristic reasons behind the construction of such strategically important port. Strategic community in India reckons this to be a potential threat for Asias security. Indias recent decision to withdraw from Vietnam had pure economic reasons, it would still be called a strategically misplaced decision. India could very well use its presence on Vietnams coast as a counter to Chinese presence in Pakistan occupied Kashmir.

Gwadar Port:

Rahul Mishra The writer is a researcher at Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA), New Delhi, India.

Indias Achilles Heel

Sana Hashmi The writer is associated with Centre for Air Power Studies and her area of interest is China and its neighbourhood.

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HIDDEN AGENDA

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VISION FOR SUPREMACY

he Change of Guard has taken place at the Army HQ. The task of the new Army Chief is well cut out for him. He will need to calm down frayed nerves and tempers in the higher military echelons and try his bit to restore synergy between the civil military interface. The bureaucracy will have to shed its adversarial outlook and stop arrogating to itself the job of civilian control. In a democracy these controls are vested in the political authority and cannot be entirely usurped by the bureaucrats. Genuine integration of the Service HQs with the MoD will go a long way to redress this systemic problem. The New Chief must make the speeding up of the Arms acquisition process his key result area and primary focus. Moral Health of the upper echelons is also a concern that will also need the urgent attention of the new Chief.

CHANGE OF GUARD: THE INDIAN ARMY

Maj Gen (Dr) G D Bakshi SM, VSM (retd) The writer is a combat veteran of many skirmishes on the Line of Control and counter-terrorist operations in Jammu and Kashmir and Punjab. He subsequently commanded the reputed Romeo Force during intensive counter-terrorist operations in the Rajouri-Poonch districts. He has served two tenures at the highly prestigious Directorate General of Military Operations. He is a prolific writer on matters military and non-military and has published 24 books and over 100 papers in many prestigious research journals. He is also Executive Editor of Defence and Security Alert (DSA) magazine.

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VISION FOR SUPREMACY

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AGENDA AND PRIORITIES

eneral Bikram Singh has taken over the reins of the Indian army at a time when it is passing through a rough patch in its history. The higher leadership of the army has been facing criticism for putting self before service. A dispassionate SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, threats) analysis reveals that up to the level of combat units the army continues to remain a force to reckon with. However, a number of officers comprising the armys leadership ranks from Brigadier onwards appear to have lost their moral compass. The new COAS also has to simultaneously take stock of the armys preparedness for war and internal security challenges. The previous army chief, General V K Singhs leaked letter to the Prime Minister and the CAGs recent report have revealed that the state of defence preparedness is a cause for serious concern. Stocks of several critical varieties of ammunition for tanks and artillery guns have fallen to as low as less than 10 days war reserves. Also, ammunition has a shelf life of about 12 to 15 years, at the end of which it is no longer usable for combat but can still be used for training. Hence, the shortages continue to increase every year. Consequent to the leakage of the chiefs letter and the major he writer presents that a European perspective on Minister the recent uproar in Parliament resulted, the Defence is Conference on Afghanistan and Defence is pessimistic about and the reported to have approved the 12th Plan 2012-17 outcome. Mr Obama and the other2012. 27 NATO leaders agreed to a the LTIPP 2012-27 in early-April The new COAS has his modified of the plan coming outwill of the work cut version out for him. The government do Lisbon well to summit appoint in 2010. The aim is for Afghan forces to take the lead security a National Security Commission to take stock of the lack of role in three-quarters of the country before the end of this year preparedness of the countrys armed forces. and the other, most congested areas by the middle of 2013. The summit, she says only highlighted the weakness of NATO as an alliance - especially its failure to get the logistical routes via Pakistan, reopened.

Indian Army:

New COAS has his Work Cut Out Urgent action needed to restore moral health

Brig Gurmeet Kanwal (retd) The writer is a Delhi-based defence analyst.

and make up critical deficiencies

The mechanised forces in the plains are still partly night blind, the capability to launch offensive operations in the mountains continues to remain inadequate to deter conflict. The capability to launch precision strikes from ground and air-delivered firepower, which will pave the way for the infantry to win future battles, is much short of the volumes that will be required. The MoD must immediately ask for additional funds to kick-start the armys stalled modernisation process

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global security

EUROPEAN PERSPECTIVE

NATO SUMMIT- 2012

Road Ahead

Dominika Cosic The writer is a journalist and political correspondent based in Brussels. She specialises in NATO and European Union affairs. She is correspondent (Europe) of Defence and Security Alert (DSA) magazine.

he writer presents a European perspective on the recent Conference on Afghanistan and is pessimistic about the outcome. Mr Obama and the other 27 NATO leaders agreed to a modified version of the plan coming out of the Lisbon summit in 2010. The aim is for Afghan forces to take the lead security role in three-quarters of the country before the end of this year and the other, most congested areas by the middle of 2013. The summit, she says only highlighted the weakness of NATO as an alliance - especially its failure to get the logistical routes via Pakistan, reopened.

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EUROPEAN PERSPECTIVE

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