Professional Documents
Culture Documents
DEPARTMENT OF LABOR
america’s dynamicworkforce
August
2006
america’s dynamic workforce: 2006
TABLE OF CONTENTS
SECRETARY’S MESSAGE ......................................................III
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ......................................................... V
INTRODUCTION................................................................... VII
averaged 141.7
higher in terms of million workers in
real purchasing 2005, an increase of
power in 2005 than nearly 4.8 million
in 2000. Figure 1-2. Payroll Jobs Have Surpassed the
from 2001. 1
Pre-Recession Peak
EMPLOYMENT Millions RECESSION AND
Net growth in 136 RECOVERY
nonfarm payroll 134
Figure 1-2 shows in
employment totaled 132
detail the monthly
5.4 million from 130
levels of payroll
August 2003 through 128
employment from
the first half of 2006. 126
124 January 2000
Job growth during
122 through June 2006
2005 was 2.0 million.
120 (latest available for
In the first half of 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 this report). In
2006 a total of SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics program.
February 2001, just
865,000 net new jobs
1981 recession, which recorded a 3.1 percent SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey.
MINN.
North Central
Middle
Atlantic
VT.
MAINE
N.H.
MASS.
labor force.
NEB. N.J.
OHIO
NEV. ILL. IND. MD.
UTAH
COLO. DEL.
KAN. MO. W.VA.
KY.
VA.
79
83
87
91
95
99
03
productivity have hourly terms over
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
yielded real gains in SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Major Sector Productivity and Costs program.
the past five years.
compensation for The average level of
employees. Compensation includes both the CD-ECI in 2005 was 5.8 percent higher
wages and the cost of benefits such as health than in 2000; by comparison, the 1995 level
insurance, retirement plan contributions, paid was 3.0 percent higher than in 1990. The CD-
leave, and other benefits. ECI facilitates comparisons of changes in the
Figure 1-10 shows the index of real hourly wages and benefits components of
compensation of employees in the nonfarm compensation. In 2005, hourly wages were
business sector. In Figure 1-10, the recent 1.9 percent higher than in 2000. Between
real compensation growth experience appears 1990 and 1995, wages rose 1.1 percent.
similar to the 1947- Much of the increase
1970 trend and in compensation in
stronger than the Figure 1-11. Higher Paying Jobs Drove Much of the past five years
2001-2005 Employment Growth
trend of 1970 to Thousands Higher paying: 3.9 million Lower paying: 0.9 million
was due to higher
1995. 3,000
combined employment increase combined employment increase
benefits costs. In
In the late 1990s, the 2,000 1,582
1,225
1,950
2005, benefits costs
trend of real hourly 1,000 620 510
745 measured by the CD-
ECI were 16.0
157
compensation 0
t
n
t
e
n
s
al
or
en
ic
le
tio
t io
tio
et
n
pp
rv
Sa
io
em
ta
uc
of rising
ir,
uc
Se
s
Su
or
a
es
ag
od
tr
sp
s
of
.
an
Pr
in
on
an
Pr
dm
M
compensation in the
Tr
A
Figure 2-1.) 15
10
ia
ly
n
da
y
ce
ea
ne
U
ai
pa
an
U
It a
al
Development (OECD), the United States
or
an
a
zo
Sp
tr
an
Ja
K
Fr
us
ro
er
C
h
Eu
A
G
ut
ranked near the top in terms of GDP per
So
SOURCE: BLS and World Bank. Extracted from Chart 1.1, “A Chartbook of International Labor Comparisons,”
capita. Only Luxembourg, Norway, and U.S. Department of Labor, June 2006.
Ireland (not shown in the figure) had higher Figure 2-2. GDP Per Hour Worked in 2004,
per capita GDP. Among large major United States and Selected Other Nations
economies, U.S. per capita GDP was more U.S. Dollars
than 20 percent higher than that of Australia 60
35.9 37.1
38.9
37.2
Japan. 10
PRODUCTIVITY IS CRITICAL 0
ly
ia
S
K
y
in
ea
a
ce
an
U
ad
pa
Ita
al
a
or
an
Sp
tr
m
an
Ja
K
us
Fr
ro
er
C
h
Eu
A
G
High output per capita reflects efficiency Figure 2-3. Annual Hours Worked Per Capita in
(output per hour worked) as shown in Figure 2004, United States and Selected Other Nations
2-2 and effort (annual hours worked per Hours
capita) as shown in Figure 2-3. 1400
800
major economies shown in Figures 2-1 and 2-
698 678 698
617
600
2, only France achieved greater GDP per hour 400
worked ($47 per hour), but lower effort 200
K
US
lia
a
n
a
ne
ce
an
ai
re
ad
pa
Ita
ra
an
zo
Sp
Ko
m
an
Ja
st
Fr
ro
er
Au
C
th
u
So
efficiency, and the Eurozone as a whole had SOURCE: OECD Productivity Database, January 2006.
ly
S
ia
K
y
ea
n
a
ce
an
ai
U
ad
pa
U
It a
al
or
an
zo
Sp
tr
m
an
Ja
taking into account both the proportion of
K
s
Fr
ro
er
Au
C
h
Eu
ut
So
the population that is employed and the NOTE:
SOURCE:
The figures are standardized unemployment rates published by the OECD.
OECD Main Economic Indicators, August 2006.
throughout the U.S. labor market. 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004
SOURCE: Haver Analytics (Eurostat and Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey).
LABOR FORCE
1990-91 and 2001. 22.4
20 17.7
PARTICIPATION
Since 2003, the 11.8
9.6
ly
S
K
n
ia
5
ea
n
ce
a
an
ai
-1
U
ad
pa
Ita
al
or
an
Sp
EU
tr
m
an
Ja
K
Fr
us
er
C
h
G
rates for persons
A
European countries
ut
So
NOTE: Long-term refers to persons unemployed 12 months and over.
SOURCE: OECD Employment Outlook 2006.
have seen somewhat ages 15 or 16 to 64
stagnant employment across major OECD
Figure 2-7. Labor Force Participation Rates
growth, most notably and Employment-Population Ratios in 2005, economies in 2005.
France and United States and Selected Other Nations The U.S. labor force
Germany. Percent of persons ages 15 to 64
participation rate,
100 75.4 percent (for
On the surface, Labor force participation rate Employment-population ratio
ages 16-64) was
Japan’s very low 80
somewhat higher
unemployment rates 60
than the 71.3 percent
belie its employment 40 registered in the
woes. Japan saw six
20 European Union (for
consecutive years of
ages 15.64),
employment declines 0
y
ce
ia
n
da
US
ly
UK
a
n
-1
an
re
pa
ai
al
I ta
an
na
EU
Sp
Ko
tr
m
Ja
Fr
us
h
G
ut
NOTE: For the U.S., the participation rate is for persons ages 16 to 64.
So
with lower-paying
Retail trade Figure 3-2, but not
Transportation & warehousing
entirely.
jobs. As of 2005, Utilities
Information
weekly earnings in Financial activities The professional and
food and beverage business services
Professional & business services
Education & health services
0.9
1.5
years. Over the
professional and Farming, fishing & forestry 0.0
0.3 period, net job
related occupations Office & administrative 1.4
6.1
growth is expected to
and management, Sales and related 1.5
5.0
total 18.9 million. In
business and
8.0
addition to job
Service 5.3
Professional and related 5.5
financial operations Management, business & financial 2.2
2.8
6.0
growth, net
occupations. replacement for
-1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Professional and Millions
retirees and others
SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment Projections Program.
4 Education Pays
share with a bachelor’s degree or higher also
Sixty-five years ago only about one in twenty
more than doubled over the period (from 14.1
Americans ages 25 or older was a college
percent to 32.3 percent). In contrast, the
graduate. Many jobs required no more than
share of the labor force with less than a high
basic literacy and physical skills largely learned
school diploma declined markedly.
through experience. The change in the
educational attainment of the labor force In 2005, 32.3 percent (38.9. million) of labor
since the 1940s has been dramatic. force members age 25 to 64 had earned a
bachelor’s degree or higher, 27.8 percent (33.4
Figure 4-1 shows that by 1970, 14.1 percent
million) had undertaken some college but had
of the labor force ages 25 to 64 (8.7 million
not attained a baccalaureate degree, 30.1
persons) had completed four years of
percent (36.3 million) had attained only a high
college.18 In addition, 11.8 percent (7.3
school diploma (or GED certificate), and 9.8
million persons) had completed some college,
percent (11.8 million) had attained less than a
but were short of completing a four-year
complete high school education (no diploma
program. The group with some college
or GED certificate).
includes those with
two-year associate Figure 4-1. Rising Educational Attainment of the The number of
degrees or post- Labor Force Reflects Labor Market Changes people age 25-64 in
secondary vocational Percent of Labor Force Ages 25-64
the labor force with
certificates in 100
less than a complete
addition to college Bachelor's degree and higher high school
80
dropouts who did education fell by
not complete any 60 Some college or associate degree
nearly half (- 47.1
degree program. 40
percent) since 1970.
Over that period the
As recently as 1970, High school graduates, no college
20
number of persons
a high school Less than a high school diploma
with some post-
diploma was 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
secondary education
sufficient for most NOTE: Data are from the March 1970-2005 Current Population Survey and are for persons age 25-64. Data
beginning in 1992 are based on highest diploma or degree received; prior to this time, data were based on (some college,
jobs, and 38.1 years of school completed.
SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey. associate degree,
percent of the labor
bachelor’s degree or
force (23.5 million
higher) increased from 16.0 million (25.9
persons) had completed no education beyond
percent of the age 25-64 labor force) to 72.4
high school (12th grade). In 1970, 36.1
million (60.1 percent of the age 25 to 64 labor
percent of the labor force (22.3 million
force).
persons) had not completed high school.
The relationship between educational
RISING EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT
attainment and wages is strong and positive.
The proportion of persons ages 25 to 64 years Figure 4-2 shows that among workers 25
old with some college (or an associate degree) years old and over, median weekly earnings of
more than doubled between 1970 and 2005 wage and salary workers who usually work full
(from 11.8 percent to 27.8 percent). The time are nearly two and a half times more for
80 participation at older
those with bachelor’s 70 ages translates into a
degrees only were in 60
real economic
the labor force in 50
advantage for those
2005.20 Also among 40
who attain higher
the 65 and older age 30
20 education.
group, only 8.7 10
percent of persons 0
25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+
without a high SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey, annual average 2005.
distribution (median
many jobs available annual earnings greater than $28,770) and are
for those with less education. projected to experience higher-than-average
In addition to growth, the BLS projections job growth over the 2004-2014 horizon.
estimate openings because of net replacement Among the 18.9 million new jobs associated
needs – replacement of workers who with projected growth by 2014, 8.7 million fall
permanently leave occupations for retirement within the high-growth, high-wage group.
or other reasons. The beginning of retirement Figure 4-8 shows that among those
of the Baby Boom generation over the next occupations with both high growth and high
several years will contribute to replacement wages, 87.0 percent of new jobs are expected
openings across occupations all along the to be filled by workers with at least some
spectrum of education requirements. post-secondary education. Within the high-
Between 2004 and 2014, BLS projections growth, high-wage group, 5.5 million jobs
show that the number of net replacement (62.8 percent of the total) will most likely be
openings will total 35.8 million and total filled by workers with at least a bachelor’s
openings for both growth and net degree and 2.1 million (24.2 percent) by those
replacement needs will be 54.7 million. In with some post-secondary education, such as
general, occupations in the high-school-or-less a two-year community college academic
6 Opportunities to Prosper
Experience shows that America’s economy to turn 60 years of age, but over the next
likely will continue to face challenges arising several years, all 78.2 million of them will pass
from technological innovation, globalization, that milestone, moving into the traditional age
demographic trends, natural disasters, and of retirement. The population next in line is
political events. However, the flexible and today’s 20 to 39 year olds, and there are about
dynamic nature of our labor market enables half a million fewer of them, according to
America’s workers to grasp the opportunities 2005 Census estimates. The growing size of
presented by these changes. In recognizing the aging population relative to the younger
opportunities to succeed in the workforce, population may contribute to better job
America’s workers strengthen our economy at market conditions for younger workers in
the same time. This chapter examines terms of lower unemployment rates and more
opportunity in the job openings.
American labor
An aging population
market from three Figure 6-1. The U.S. Population Is Aging
leads to an aging
perspectives: the Millions
workforce. In the
effects of an aging 450
400
Age 65 and older last several years,
population, the Age 20-64
350 Age 19 and younger 0 86
.7
workers age 55 and
expanding role of .5 80
.
300 4.6 71
older have
women, and the 40
.2 5
250 3 5.1
represented a
experience of racial 4.0
200 3 7 .0 2 10
.3 22
growing share of the
and ethnic
. 19
5.5 19
2
6.5 18
150 16 labor force, growing
minorities. 100
from 11.6 percent in
50 1.6 9.1
AGING POPULATION 80
.5 83
.2 88
.9 95
.1
10 10
1993 to 16.2 percent
0
in 2005. Over the
The changing age 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau, 2004, "U.S. Interim Projections by Age, Sex, Race, and Hispanic Origin," same time, the labor
composition of the http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/usinterimproj/ Internet Release Date: March 18, 2004.
force participation of
U.S. population is a
workers age 55 and
challenge that also presents a source of
older has increased
opportunity for the
from 29.4 percent to
U.S. labor market. Figure 6-2. Older Workers in the Labor Force 37.2 percent. (See
As Figure 6-1 shows,
Figure 6-2.)
the proportion of the 20 50
population ages 65 In the future,
Labor Force Participation Rate
16 40
14
projected to grow 35
workers – who will
12 30
from about 12.4 10
Labor Force Participation Rate
25
be more educated
percent of the total 8 20 than previous
population in 2000 6 15 generations of older
4
to about 20.7 percent 2
10
5
workers – may
in 2050. The Baby 0 0 remain in the labor
Boom generation is force longer, thereby
48
52
56
60
64
68
72
76
80
84
88
92
96
00
04
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
20
now just beginning NOTE: Includes workers age 55 and over. increasing the typical
SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey,1948-2005 annual averages.
77
79
81
83
85
87
89
91
93
95
97
99
01
03
05
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
20
20
85
95
97
99
01
5
87
03
8
occupational choice,
19
19
19
20
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
20
professional and NOTE: Data use the specially constructed conversion series available online at
http://ww.bls.gov/cps/constio198399.htm.
SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey, 1983-2005 annual averages. hours of work, job
related occupations