17

Probability Concepts for Failure Analyses

Failure: Total loss of design function
Degredation: Partial loss of design function
Failure can occur instantaneously or over a period of time due to degredation.
Systems Which Operate on Demand
Let
D
n
: System operates at the n
th
demand
W
n
: System operates for each of the n demands.
Then
P(D
n
) P(D
n
|W
n1
)P(W
n1
) P(D
n
|W
n1
)P(D
1
D
2
D
n1
)
P(D
n
|W
n1
)P(D
n1
|W
n2
)P(D
1
D
2
D
n2
)

n
i1

P(D
i
|W
i1
) with P(D
1
|W
0
) P(D
1
)
Similarly,
P(D
n
) P(D
n
|W
n1
)P(W
n1
) [1 P(D
n
|W
n1
)]P(D
1
D
2
D
n1
)
[1 P(D
n
|W
n1
)]P(D
n1
|W
n2
)P(D
1
D
2
D
n2
)
P(D
n
|W
n1
)P(D
n1
|W
n2
)P(D
1
D
2
D
n2
)

P(D
n
|W
n1
)
n1
i1

P(D
i
|W
i1
) with P(D
1
|W
0
) 1 P(D
1
)
18
Example 1
The probability that a light switch will work at the n
th
demand is 0. 9999/n
1/n
. The switch
is used 2 times per day. What is the probability that the switch will fail: a) at the third
demand, and, b) during the rst ve days following installation?
Solution
For the switch to work at the n
th
demand, it must have worked at all the previous n 1
demands. Let
D
n
: Light switch operates at the n
th
demand
W
n
: Light switch operates for each of the n demands.
Then P(D
n
|W
n1
)
0. 9999
n
1/n
.
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
0.65
0.7
0.75
0.8
0.85
0.9
0.95
1
n
P
(D
n
|W
n

1
)
a) P(D
3
) P(D
3
|W
2
)P(W
2
)
P(D
3
|W
2
)P(D
1
D
2
) P(D
3
|W
2
)P(D
2
|W
1
)P(D
1
)

1
0. 9999
3
1/3
_
,

0. 9999
2
1/2
_
,

0. 9999
1
_
,
0. 21
b) Probability that the switch does not fail during the rst ve days of installation is
P(D
10
)
10
n1

P(D
n
|W
n1
)

10
n1

0. 9999
n
1/n
_
,
0. 068
> Probability that the switch fails during this time =1 0.068 = 0.932
19
Systems Which Operate Continuously
Let
(t) dt Pr{system fails within [t, t + dt]|system has survived until t}
(t) failure rate
Then
f (t) dt (t) dt [1 F(t)] with F(t)
t
0

dt f (t)
or
f (t) (t) [1 F(t)] with F(t)
t
0

dt f (t)
The function F(t) is called the cumulative failure distribution (Cfd) and is the probability
that the system fails within [0, t]. The function f (t) is sometimes called the failure den-
sity. The reliability function for the system, R(t), is dened as R(t) 1 F(t).
Since f (t)
dF(t)
dt
,
dF(t)
dt
+ (t)F(t) (t) >
d
dt

'

exp

t
0

dt (t)
1
1
]
F(t)

(t) exp

t
0

dt (t)
1
1
]
Then if F(0) 0,
F(t)
t
0

dt(t) exp

t
t

dt (t)
1
1
]
.
Also from f (t) (t) [1 F(t)] and f (t)
dF(t)
dt
(t)
d
dt
ln[1 F(t)]
d
dt
ln R(t) > R(t) exp

t
0

dt (t)
1
1
]
, and
f (t)
dF(t)
dt

dR(t)
dt
(t) exp

t
0

dt (t)
1
1
]
20
Example 2
The failure rate for a transistor is (t) constant (i.e. transistor fails randomly).
How long can the transistor operate with a minimum reliability of R?
Solution
R(t) exp

t
0

dt (t)
1
1
]
e
t
R > t
1

ln

1
R
_
,
Example 3 What is the mean-time-to-failure (MTTF) and median time time to failure t
med
for the transistor ?
Solution
MTTF

dt t f (t)

dt R(t)

dt e
t

R(t
med
) 0. 5
t
med
0

dt f (t)
t
med
0

dt e
t
1 e
t
med
0. 5 > t
med

ln(2)