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Reliability is: An inherent feature of design Concerned with performance in the field, as opposed to quality of production (conformance to design specs) Definition Reliability is the probability that a system will perform in a satisfactory manner for a given period of time when used under specified operating conditions.
Measures of Reliability
Let T = Random Variable Measuring Lifetime of an item (time to first - next - failure) Range Space of T={t:t 0} Tests to establish PDF & Parameters of T are called Life Testing Cum, Distribution Function F(t)=P(T t) is called the Failure Distribution Function
Measures of Reliability(cont)
The Reliability Function is: R(t)=P(T>t)=1-F(t)= f (t )dt
1 Prob 0
F (t)
Four ways to determine R(t) for a particular system Test many systems to failure. Develop curve empirically. Test many subsystems, use historical field data on others, develop subsystem reliability functions, use a reliability system model to combine. Extrapolate past experience with similar systems. 8 Physical properties--Hypothesize a certain distribution.
Note: H(t)= number failures in [0,t]= h( x )dx is called the failure count function
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H (t ) =
R( x) dx = log R( x) ] = log
0
R( x )
So, R(t)=
e H (t )
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tf (t )dt,
0 0
or
Example: Random failures often are modeled by time-to-failure is exponential with rate :
f (t ) = e t , t 0 = 0 otherwise F(t ) = 1 e t R(t ) = e t
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Example (cont)
Then,
f (t ) e t h(t ) = = t = Constant R (t ) e
R(t ) = e H ( t )
P(T< )=F()=
1 e = 1 e 1 = 1
1 = 1 .3679 = .6321 e
= = 0.001196 Example 2 4180 hours Operating Cycle = 168.8 hours Downtime = 26.8 hours Operating Time = 142
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5 failures
Other examples are on handouts Hines and Montgomery, example 15-7 Halpern, examples 10-1 thru 10-6 Note: For exponential failure module R(t) = e- t is the first Term in a poisson distribution with parameter x.
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AFR(t1 , t2 ) =
h(t )dt
t1
t2 t1
H (t) - ln R(t) = t t
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t
i =1
+ ( n r )T
ti = time of i th failure
Type II Censored Data
=
r
t
i =1
+ (n r )tr
If system has n components and system fails when first n component fails s = i
i =1
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Series Configuration
1 2 n Static Model: Dynamic Model:
Rs =
R = R * R *...R
i =1 i 1 2
Rs (t ) = hs (t ) = Hs ( t ) =
R (t )
i =1 n i
h (t )
i i =1
H (t )
i i =1
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Example
Exponential Subsystem Failure Models
+ + ... + n ) t Rs (t ) = e ( 1 2
hs (t ) = i
i =1
Constant
= MTBF =
i =1
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Ra = 1
(1 Ri )
i =1
1 2
i
(1 R (t ))
i =1
n
n
Ra (t ) = 1 [1 R(t )]
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Example 1
Always Keep in Mind Redundancy Has a Cost
# of Components in Parallel
Wt.
Benefit/ Cost
0.95
5 lb
0.9975
10 lb
.0475 / 5 lbs
0.999875
15 lb
.002375 / 5 lbs
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Example 2
Exponential Subsystem Lifetime, Identical Subsystems
Ra (t ) = 1 1 e t
a =
n a 0 i =1
R (t )dt = * i = i
i =1
e. g., if n = 3 and
1 = = 1000 hours
a =
Special Configurations
K-out-of-n Configuration Systems works only if at least k of n components are working. Assume identical components with reliability R(t):
Rs (t ) =
( i )[ R(t )] [1 R(t )]
i i=k
ni
If
i
i=k
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Rs = Ra * RBUC = Ra [ 1 ( 1 RB )( 1 RC )]
Rs = R AUB * RCUD
=[ 1- ( 1 - R A )( 1 RB ) ] [ 1 ( 1 RC )( 1 RD ) ]
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Availability Measurement
Inherent Availability (Ideal Support Environment)
Ai = MTBF MTBF + M ct
Does not include preventive maintenance, logistics delay, or administrative delay. Achieved Availability ( Ideal Support Environment) M = mean active maintenance time MTBM Aa = = weighted average of corrective MTBM + M and preventive maintenance time. MTBM = mean time between any maintenance action, corrective or preventive
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Availability Measurement
Operational Availability ( Actual Support Environment)
A =
MDT = mean downtime = weighted average of active maintenance (current and previous) and delays (logistical and administrative.
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Comments on Availability
Availability is a function of both: Reliability of a prime item The logistics support subsystem Equipment designer can exert little control over support operations, but can design in: Built-in diagnostics Easy access Rapid disconnect / connect
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Standardization
Standardization: Means selection of components and materials whose reliability characteristics are known, as well as their degradation under stress and aging. This indirectly eases the burden on spare parts inventories, by having same component used in several systems
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De-rating
De-rating: - Use part in application below its rated value A type of overdesign to provide reliability margin Steps: Identify operating interval Select de-rating % ( see RCA Corp. Table) Calculate de-rated value of component to be used Example: ceramic capacitor for 100v (max) application - RCA recommends 70% de-rating - X (0.7) = 100, X = 142.85 v minimum requirement for component
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All 3 up
All 3 down
P (System operating)
1 Q3 = 1 (1 P)3 P 3 + 3 P 2 Q + 3 P1Q 2
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Alternatives to Redundancy
Reduce number of parts Simplify Improve reliability level of parts used, especially at critical nodes Burn-in of Parts On-board spares, repairs
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Standby Redundancy
Assume cold standby, not energized until failure detected in original component Assume reliability of decision switch is 100% Lifetime variable is T=T1++Tn Standby always more reliable than simple parallel, if switch is 100% Reliable 1 DS 2
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E (T ) V (T ) = V (T )
E (T ) =
i i
T = T1 + T2 + - - - - + Tn
n n V (T ) = 2 E (T) =
n=2 n=3
R(t) = P(system life > t / one standby) = e - t + (t )e t R(t) = P(system life > t / two standbys) = e - t + (t )e t + (t )2 t e 2!
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Helps keep track of reliability relationships Across levels of design Within a given level Rapid Sensitivity Analysis Is overall R goal even feasible Study effect of different R allocations Study effects of configuration changes on R Study effects of substituting different components Perform worst-case analysis Can be adapted to multiple missions -in essence, one model for each set of mission equipment/conditions Can be used to evaluate proposed modifications to existing system
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Discussion of FMEA
Failure Mode and Effect Analysis: Identification of all possible failure modes of equipment, the possible causes and the possible immediate/ ultimate effects on the system and operation Formal documentation in words not diagrams Estimation of probability of occurrence Classify each failure by criticality Describe corrective action alternatives
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Used For:
Higher-level reliability prediction As input to maintenance and logistic support analysis Comparison with requirement, where are we over/ under reliability
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Type 3 Testing
Definition- Operational Testing Using:
A group of production units Designated field test sight Representative mix of mission profiles User personnel (first trained) 1st sets of support equipment; spares
Uniqueness
All elements of the system are operational and evaluated together Where the true R, M, A and other performance measures are known for first time, rather than estimated via models plus some type 1 & 2 test data 56
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