Labour Market Information

A situational analysis of Pakistan

November 2011

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Labour Market Information

A situational analysis of Pakistan

November 2011

Submitted to: Authors:

GIZ TVET Reform Support Programme Jan de Voogd, MD Prof. Dr. Muhammad Iqbal Qureshi

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Acknowledgements
The GIZ consultants on LMI would like to thank all those who contributed to this report and provided valuable assistance along the way. We benefited from very good co-operation and support during our work. Extensive consultations were only possible because every organisation and individual we contacted made the time to meet and inform us. The willingness to discuss the relevance of LMI for the TVET area indicates the depth of interest in advancing the efforts directed to establish a viable and sustainable LMI cell at NAVTTC to serve a variety of users: TVET policy-makers, public/private training institutions, employers, investors, job seekers, employees, emigration planners. We are thankful that the management and staff of the GIZ TVET Reform programme in Pakistan gave us the opportunity to work together on a very challenging and promising project which has the potential to assist in streamlining the TVET sector in Pakistan. The GIZ office provided us very dedicated and timely support to ensure the smooth implementation of the work, especially to meet key stakeholders offices in Islamabad, Lahore, Karachi and Rawalpindi, and in the organization of the Stakeholders workshop organized on 16th November 2011 in Islamabad. We appreciate that NAVTTC provided the facilities for it. The successful completion of this assignment would not have been possible without the inputs of all the participants of this stakeholder workshop which immensely helped us in developing the conceptual framework for the LMI cell at NAVTTC. We hope that our inputs will assist in translating the concept into a living reality for reform of the TVET sector in Pakistan.

November, 2011

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Acronyms
AEPAM Academy of Education Planning and Management AJK Pakistan Administered State of Azad Jammu and Kashmir AJK-TEVTA Azad Jammu and Kashmir Technical Education and Vocational Training Authority ASDES AJK Skills Development and Employment System ATC Apprentice Training Centre BEOE Bureau of Emigration and Overseas Employment BTE Board of Technical Education B-TEVTA Baluchistan Technical Education and Vocational Training Authority CBT Competency-Based Training CCI Chamber of Commerce and Industry CMI Census of Manufacturing Industries CNIC Computerized National Identity Card DAE Diploma of Associate Engineer DG Director General DMT Directorate of Manpower Training DTE-KPK Directorate of Technical Education, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa DTE&MT Directorate of Technical Education and Manpower Training EC European Commission EE Elementary Education EIC Employment Information Center EMIS Education Management and Information System FBS Federal Bureau of Statistics FPCCI Federation of Pakistan Chambers of Commerce and Industry FPT Federal/Provincial/Territorial GCT Government College of Technology GVI Government Vocational Institute HE Higher Education HEC Higher Education Commission HR Human Resource HSE Higher Secondary Education ILO International Labour Organization IOM International Organization for Migration IT Information Technology ITC Industrial Training Centre KPBTE Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Board of Technical Education KPK Khyber Pakhtunkhwa KP-TEVTA Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Technical Education and Vocational Training Authority LCCI Lahore Chamber of Commerce and Industry LFS Labour Force Survey LMD Labour Market Data LMI Labour Market Information LMIA-U Labour Market Information Analysis Unit LMO Labour Market Opinion MIS Management Information System Page 4 of 76

MoE MoHRD MoLMP MoPTT NAVTEC NAVTTC NEMIS NGO NIPS NSC NTB N-WFP PBTE PCP PE PIDE POEPA POF PP-TI PSDF PTB P-TEVTA PTI PVTC RTP SDC SDDS SE SNA SSC S-TEVTA TE TEB TEVTA TNA ToR TP TVET UNDP UNESCO VTI VTC WAN

Ministry of Education Ministry of Human Resource Development Ministry of Labour and Manpower Ministry of Professional and Technical Training National Vocational and Technical Education Commission (now NAVTTC) National Vocational and Technical Training Commission National Education Management Information System Non-Government Organizations National Institute of Population Studies National Skills Certificate National Training Bureau North-West Frontier Province Punjab Board of Technical Education Planning Commission of Pakistan Primary Education Pakistan Institute of Development Economics Pakistan Overseas Employment Promoters Association Pakistan Overseas Foundation Public-Private Training Institutes Punjab Skill Development Fund Punjab Technical Board Punjab Technical Education and Vocational Training Authority Polytechnic Institute Punjab Vocational Training Council Registered Training Provider Skills Development Council Special Data Dissemination Standard Secondary Education Skill Needs Analysis Secondary School Certificate Sindh Technical Education and Vocational Training Authority Tertiary Education Technical Education Board Technical Education and Vocational Training Authority Training Needs Analysis / Assessment Terms of Reference Training Providers (Public and Private) Technical and Vocational Education and Training United Nations Development Programme United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization Vocational Training Institutes Vocational Training Centre Wide Area Network

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Table of Contents
1 2 2.1 2.2 2.3 3 3.1 3.2 3.3 4 4.1 4.2 4.3 Introduction and methodology TVET within Pakistans education sector General Education System Technical, Vocational Education and Training (TVET) Position and functions of NAVTTC LMI and TVET policy in Pakistan Definition of LMI LMI use for TVET policy and implementation LMI needs for TVET policies Assessment of available LMI in Pakistan Identification and assessment of LMI data sources Identified LMI gaps Identification of current and potential cooperation and delivery mechanisms between NAVTTC and data providers Outline of LMI cell in NAVTTC Scope of tasks of the LMI cell Preliminary work plan outline Location of the LMI cell in NAVTTC Linkage with EMIS Summary and recommendations General Education System List of stakeholders met Bibliography Organogram of NAVTTC NAVTTC Act 7 8 8 9 13 16 16 18 20 27 27 37 40

5 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.4 6 Annex 1 Annex II Annex III Annex IV Annex V

42 42 44 45 46 47

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Chapter 1 Introduction and methodology

This report presents findings with regard to the design of a Labour Market Analysis (LMA) function in NAVTTC. The basis for this are the Terms of Reference for the experts assignment to assess the opportunities and options for integrating a Labour Market Analysis Function in NAVTTC. The ToRs stress the following: Under Component 1, the TVET Reform Support Programme assists in building capacity of the NAVTTC. It is foreseen that a Technical Unit will be established in NAVTTC which will also include a Labour Market Information (LMI) Cell charged with generating and analyzing labour market information necessary to inform TVET planning processes. The purpose of the study is to prepare a conceptual plan of the LMI Cell by scoping and analysing the existing labour market information activities in Pakistan, identifying LMI needs of NAVTTC and appropriate strategies to generate these, and developing terms of reference for the NAVTTC LMI Cell. The collection of LMI by NAVTTC is to be coordinated with LMI activities of other stakeholders in Pakistan thereby avoiding duplication. The team of consultants bases this report on a review of reports, documents, programme reports, data of surveys and statistics, and on meetings with key stakeholders in TVET and potential providers of LMI. After a briefing meeting with project management and management of the main beneficiary of the project (NAVTTC), about 25 meetings (at federal level, and in the provinces Punjab and Sindh) and four telephonic interviews with stakeholders in the field of TVET and labour market (public and private sector) in Pakistan were held. In the meetings a list of discussion topics were used derived from the objectives mentioned above. The demand and the supply side of the labour market as well as information on mismatches were taken into consideration from the perspective of the needs of TVET policy-making and implementation. This report will not present an overview of the structure or developments in the Pakistan labour market since the objective of the assignment was restricted to assess the availability of Labour Market Information (LMI).

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Chapter 2 TVET within Pakistans education sector

2.1 General Education System
The responsibility of organizing an equitable and effective education system is the responsibility of the Government of Pakistan. Pakistans Constitution explicitly mentions that the State shall endeavour to remove illiteracy and provide free and compulsory secondary education within minimum possible period. Further, the Article 34 requires that steps shall be taken to ensure full participation of women in all the spheres of national life. Given this perspective, the country is committed to achieve the Education for All (EFA) goals in the stipulated period. When Pakistan became independent in 1947, it inherited a British education system which has not changed much in the last 64 years. Several National Education Policy documents have been devised and through these policies and related directives of federal and provincial governments, the prevalent education system, as shown in Annex I, has evolved. Figure 2.1 presents the flows from the general education system to the TVET system. Figure 2.1: Education system in Pakistan showing the student flows from general education to TVET

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2.2 Technical, Vocational Education and Training (TVET)

The Technical, Vocational Education and Training (TVET) is a separate stream of education which is linked to the lower tiers of education on the one end, and to higher education on the other end. It focuses on technical and vocational fields to produce semi-skilled, skilled and highly skilled human resource. In 1947, Pakistan had a very low industrial base, only 4% of the total economy. The country started to industrialise in the 1950s and progress in this respect was very notable in the 1960s. To sustain the growth of the manufacturing sector, TVET systems were expanded and strengthened. This initial momentum, however, could not be maintained due to a lack of resources as well as diminishing commitment by successive governments towards the TVET sector. The sector thus gradually lost its way to meet the needs of the emerging job markets. Most of the dropouts and a large number of non-school-going youth especially in the rural areas end up in the informal skill-imparting sector commonly known as the UstadShagird (master-apprentice) system of traditional apprenticeship. The skills transferred via this informal system are generally task-specific and limited in scope and only a small proportion of naturally gifted young people excel in their subsequent career as workers or entrepreneurs. On the other hand, these dropouts and the teeming millions of young men and women, as evident from the countrys demographical profile, are the potential candidates to be engaged in tailored skills development programmes of varying duration as well as in the conventional TVET institutions. It is generally recognized that Pakistan requires a mixture of skilled workers, tradesmen, technicians, technologists, engineers, research workers and scientists in both the public and private sector in order to alleviate poverty and to enhance and sustain economic growth. From the perspective of TVET sector management, three distinct levels exist, as shown in Figure 2.2.

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Figure 2.2: An overview of TVET sector management structure indicating key players

At federal level, the newly created Ministry of Professional and Technical Training heads the National Vocational and Technical Training Commission (NAVTTC) and the National Training Bureau (NTB). At provincial level, the Authorities such as the TEVTAs, and the Councils such as Punjab Vocational and Technical Council (PVTC) and Skill Development Councils (SDCs; both autonomous bodies) are entrusted with planning and executing training programmes as well as to carrying out tasks such as revision/development of curriculum, training of trainers. In the public sector, the Directorates of Technical Education (DTE), Provincial Directorates of Manpower Training and some other agencies for the public sector run their own vocational training programmes. The National Training Board and the associated Trade Testing Boards are responsible for their own examinations and issue certificates. Furthermore regional boards exist such as the Punjab Board of Technical Education (PBTE) or the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Board of Technical Education (KPBTE). The industry has its own training programmes for training middle level and semi-skilled workforce. NAVTEC was established in 2005. NAVTTC has been established under the NAVTTC Act in June 2011. A copy of the Act and the lately approved organogram of NAVTTC are appended as Annexes V an IV. The functions described in the Act show that NAVTTC has a mandate to regulate, monitor and coordinate various activities related to TVET. The National Skills Strategy 2009-2013, a publication of NAVTEC (recently renamed NAVTTC) citing the Medium Term Development Framework 2005-2010 indicated that the country has an annual demand of nearly 950,000 appropriately skilled workers. This target presents a huge gap as the enrolment across about 1,700 TVET institutions was Page 10 of 76

reported about 350,000. Clearly there is a big shortfall in the required number of skilled workers. The federal and regional governments through NAVTTC and TEVTAs therefore have a huge challenge to meet the growing demand for skilled workers for the countrys economic development and to export human resource elsewhere in the labour deficient countries. Currently the labour force trained for (semi-)skilled work stems from the following streams of training programmes offered by public and private sectors training institutions: Figure 2.3: The training providers/systems in the public and private sector

Technical Diploma programmes which culminate in the attainment of the Diploma of Associate Engineer (DAE) are provided by Colleges of Technology or Polytechnics and are three years in duration. Entrants would have successfully completed 10 years (Matriculation) of general education before being admitted. Students who have successfully completed the DAE can continue for three years pursuing the Bachelor of Technology (BTech) degree in a College of Technology or at a university. A small number (about 5%) with exceptional pass in the DAE is annually admitted to pursue a Bachelor of Engineering (BE) degree. However, they are not given any credits for training covered by the DAE and have to complete the whole 4-year programme. Vocational certificates are usually of six months to two years duration and training takes place in vocational institutions. These institutions have varying names such as Vocational Training Centres (VTCs), Vocational Training Institutes (VTIs), etc. In some institutions shorter programmes running anywhere from four weeks to six months are provided. Entry condition for the longer vocational certificate courses is completion of grade 10 general education. However, for the shorter courses of 3-6 month duration, entry requirements are more flexible. Two kinds of degrees are offered in technology and engineering. Students who complete 12 years of general education and with appropriate qualifying marks are admitted to the Bachelor of Science degree which takes four years (engineering) in universities around the country. Both the BTech (Hons) and BSc Engineering degrees are considered equivalents for purposes of employment but there is a debate raging among the Page 11 of 76

professionals as the Pakistan Engineering Council has been reluctant to register BTech graduates as engineers. There are five Skill Development Councils (SDCs), one in Islamabad (serving the federally ruled specific territories) and one in each provincial capital. The SDCs were established by the former Federal Ministry of Labour, Manpower and Overseas Pakistanis as a public-private partnership initiative to ensure the supply of skilled labour on the basis of market demand. The SDCs arrange training of new entrants and employees by mainly delegating to training providers in the private sector, occasionally the public sector. Some SDCs have their own training facilities as well as the National Training Bureau (NTB) which has to some extent an umbrella role. The NTB was established under the National Training Ordinance 1980 which was amended in 2002 to regulate, promote and assess vocational training needs with reference to the country and foreign job market requirements. NTB remained involved in developing curricula, setting skill standards, evaluating training methodology and the delivery system, job analysis etc. Recently NTB has been linked to the MoPTT as a consequence of the devolution process under the 18th Amendment in Constitution. As a whole the TVET sector is undergoing a restructuring process to position itself as a demand-driven training sector in line with the prevalent training systems elsewhere in the world. It also aims, as expressed in the NSS 2009-2013, to introduce competencybased training to ensure that its training programmes are addressing the requirements of local and foreign employers.

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Figure 2.4: An illustration of engineering, technical and vocational educational and training streams

2.3 Position and functions of NAVTTC

The National Vocational and Technical Training Commission (NAVTTC previously known as NAVTEC) was created recently following the assent to act (#XV of 2011) by the President of the country on 25 th June 2011. The Act empowers NAVTTC to provide for an autonomous organization for regulation, coordination, and policy direction for vocational and technical training and for matters ancillary thereto or connected therewith. NAVTTC has its head office in Islamabad and is administratively attached to the newly created Ministry of Professional and Technical Training. The head office has four directorates, headed by the Director Generals. NAVTTC management reports to the Chairman of NAVTTC through the Executive Director. The organogram of the NAVTTC is presented in Annex IV below.

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NAVTTC has the following regional offices across Pakistan:

Region ICT Balochistan Khyber Pakhthunkhwa Punjab Sindh Other Regional offices at provincial level Islamabad Quetta Peshawar Lahore Karachi Regional offices Gwadar Multan Larkana FATA Gilgit-Baltistan AJK

The functions of the Commission, as described in the Act are reproduced below (the functions relevant for gathering LMI are set in bold by the authors): a) b) c) d) e) f) g) h) i) j) k) l) m) n) o) p) q) devise and review policies and evolve strategy relating to human resource development with a focus on vocational and technical training and employment in general; prepare for approval of the Board, national training plans, programmes and projects in coordination with stakeholders for the expansion of vocational and technical training infrastructure in the country; formulate policies for capacity building in the field of vocational and technical training; develop national occupational skill standards, curricula and trade testing certification systems for all sectors in which vocational and technical training is imparted; prescribe conditions under which institutions in public and private sector may be established and operated; facilitate skill development and employment generation through enhancement of public-private partnership; improve quality of training of instructors through skill up-gradation programmes; regulate affiliation of establishments and institutions offering vocational and technical training; issue regulations for licensing of Federal establishments and institutions; organize workshops, seminars, symposia and panel discussions in respect of employment and training issues; establish national and international linkages with organizations of repute to make national programmes credible and promote marketing of manpower; establish an internationally acceptable system of accreditation for vocational and technical training; coordinate with the Provincial Governments in the field of vocational and technical training; review existing laws and regulations on vocational and technical training and recommend appropriate legislation; carry out training needs assessment survey; prepare and maintain a data bank of institutions and establishments imparting vocational and technical training and directory of their graduates and their placements; suggest innovative programmes for promotion of vocational and technical training among females, challenged and neglected sections of society;

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r) s) t)

u) v)

suggest performance evaluation parameters for vocational and technical training programmes and conduct performance evaluation of technical and vocational institutions; bridge the widening gap between planning and implementation for improving access, delivery and quality of vocational and technical training by applying new instructional and communication technologies; suggest ways and means for effective coordination and linkage between vocational and technical training and industry, business and commerce to make vocational and technical training relevant and responsive to market needs; formulate and recommend strategies for pre-service and in-service training of vocational and technical training staff; and develop code of conduct for vocational and technical training institutions and staff for meeting quality assurance standards.

It is found above that many functions of NAVTTC will require some type of LMI. Directly related to the functions described above, the key functions of LMI for NAVTTC are proposed as follows: to support TVET policy-making in general and TVET capacity planning in particular (in terms of training capacity and its regional and sector distribution) in view of new and replacement demand in the labour market; to provide background labour market information for occupational standards development or modification; to contribute to an adequate system of vocational career guidance and counselling; this includes occupational career information as well as educational career information; and to contribute to the assessment of quality and labour market relevance of TVET training, especially on the basis of information on school-to-work transitions.

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Chapter 3 LMI and TVET policy in Pakistan

3.1 Definition of LMI
What is Labour Market Information? The definition used by the Forum of Labour Market Ministers in the document on Saskatchewan Post-Secondary Education and Skills Training1 seems suitable. This forum defines Labour Market Information as the body of knowledge that describes employment, unemployment and the factors that relate to labour demand and supply. The Forum has chosen a broad definition of LMI as information needed to make a labour market decision. This includes career, occupational, learning and labour market information used by those looking for work, those currently employed, employers, those who provide services, and people in general to make careful decisions about the labour market and about the transitions which affect their lives (Federal/ Provincial/ Territorial Strategic Vision for LMI, 2000). This definition is intended to broadly capture information not normally associated with the labour market, but which impacts on labour market decisions.2
LMI is not the same as labour market data (LMD) or statistics but refers to analysed LMD as input for policy-making and policy-implementation. In the framework of this project it is of special importance whether LMI is useful for TVET policies. There is growing consensus that TVET policies in any country should be demand-driven and therefore rely on the needs of the labour market, i.e. in particular the labour needs of employers, both in qualitative (skills required) and quantitative terms (number of jobs available). For this purpose reliable LMI is necessary which requires permanent updating for planning and other purposes. The LMI required is, however, not just related to the demand side of the labour market, but extends also to the supply side in order to get insight into (potential) mismatches in the labour market, again in qualitative and quantitative terms. Therefore information on current and potential labour market discrepancies like vacancies/shortages, labour surplus, hidden and registered unemployment, and various forms of under or over-employment are of high value as LMI for TVET purposes. Additional information to guide TVET policies will be explained below. This refers to contextual information (specifically economic, demographic and educational/training information as well as labour legislation) and to information describing the functioning of the labour market (e.g. wage and earnings levels, working hours, labour mobility patterns and working conditions in occupations).

Planning for the Needs of Saskatchewan Learners, Employers and Communities, January 2002, page 14 Another useful definition is given by Sparreboom in his LMI study for South Africa as it stresses the important role of users of the information: Statistical and non-statistical information concerning labour market actors and their environment, as well as information concerning labour market institutions, policies and regulations that serves the needs of users and has been collected through the application of accepted methodologies and practice to the largest possible extent.
2

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LMI is in general not only used by TVET policy-makers and implementers but by a wide range of policy-makers, officials, experts and analysts, investors and employers (representatives) in other areas as well. Areas for which LMI is necessary are economic planning, HRD and employment policies, investment planning, collective labour agreement negotiations between social partners, local development planning, and educational planning in the wider sense. Therefore, TVET policy-makers need to be aware of the LMI needs in these other areas and should not embark on building a standalone system of LMI, but rely as much as possible on existing sources of LMI and cooperate with stakeholders in these other areas. This should also be reflected in the institutional setup to be developed or modified in Pakistan. In labour market analysis, a distinction is made between supply and demand as well as discrepancies resulting from the differences between demand and supply. Measurement and forecasting of the (development of) the demand and supply variables are either based on stock or flow approaches. For educational and training purposes the dimensions of occupation and required or attained education/skills are of utmost importance. An overview of categories and variables as they are often used in labour market analysis, especially to estimate labour market balances is presented in table 3.1. Table 3.1: Categories of labour market variables relevant for LMI
Category Labour demand Labour supply Variables Number of filled jobs + Vacancies (unfilled jobs) Deployment + unemployment Remarks Flow approaches aim at measuring creation and destruction of jobs Flow approaches aim at measuring inflow and outflow from/to inactivity, from the TVET system into the labour market, occupational mobility flows, changing supply of working hours and geographical mobility Labour market discrepancies indicate malfunctioning of the labour market due to various causes. At occupation level special attention goes to educational and skills mismatches This type of information is relevant to describe the functioning of labour markets in their legal, institutional, social and economic context

Labour market discrepancies

Unemployment Inactive supply Vacancies Overtime work Under- and over-employment Skills mismatches Working conditions Wages and earnings Career paths Institutional labour market information (recruitment practices, collective agreements, placement arrangements, hiring and firing rules, etc.)

Other labour information

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3.2 LMI use for TVET policy and implementation

The necessity to use reliable and up to date LMI for the formulation and implementation of good TVET policies is now acknowledged all over the world. Depending on the history, structure and institutional setting of TVET systems, policy-makers emphasize different needs for LMI to be generated. More specific questions are discussed on the basis of scheme 3.1 below. A Canadian report has well summarized the reasons for governments to invest in LMI in general.3 Box 3.1: Rationale for LMI

Theoretical and Practical Rationale for LMI: Summary

Labour market information is a fundamental requirement for efficient labour markets. Due to its nature as a public good there is an under production of LMI, government investment in LMI is essential. We examine previous studies about the role of LMI in labour market operation. The main topics covered include: a fundamental assumption of competitive labour markets is access to LMI; high-quality LMI improves labour market efficiency; LMI has characteristics of a public good in particular, that use by one agent does not diminish its value and access for another. This reduces incentives for private production of many types of LMI and argues strongly for governmental investment in LMI; globalization increases the importance of efficient labour markets for a nation to effectively compete in the international marketplace; LMI needs mirror the flows of the labour market that define the types of information to be considered in an LMI system; and the complexities of the labour market necessarily require large-scale activities and partnerships to develop and operate an optimal LMI system.

Previous studies cited in this report document:

Nearly all industrialized countries recognize the need for government intervention in developing and disseminating LMI. The governmental role arises from theory, the demands of social policy, and public requirements for efficient labour market operation.4

Conceptual Framework for an Optimal Labour Market Information System, Final Report, Upjohn Institute Technical Report No. 07-022, December 2006 4 Provision of statistics in general is considered to be a public good: an item whose consumption is not decided by the individual consumer but by the society as a whole, and which is financed by taxation. A public good (or service) may be consumed without reducing the amount available for others, and cannot be withheld from those who do not pay for it.

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TVET policies aim at contributing to improvement of labour market efficiency by educating and (re)training people in response to the dynamically changing labour market needs. This refers in the first place to the quantitative dimension of the labour market. Responding to the needs of the labour market requires insight into the future development of the number of jobs available according to occupation. There is an ongoing debate as to the relevance and validity of labour market forecasting for the sake of TVET planning objectives. This debate refers on the one hand to the methodological difficulties involved in labour market forecasting and on the other hand, and linked to it, the strong and detailed data and statistical requirements following from an adequate forecasting system. During the last decades, ambitions with regard to the possibilities of forecasting labour market developments have become more modest. The former rigid and mechanistic manpower planning method is no longer used5 (apart from very closed and highly specialized labour submarkets), but replaced by often less sophisticated trend projection and scenario methods, expert opinions gathered through panel forums etc, under new terminologies like labour market signalling. 6 7 This more modest approach is certainly appropriate for developing countries as a valid approach based on modelling requires a huge amount of labour market data which cannot easily be generated within the funds available. For TVET capacity-planning purposes, a mid-term horizon (of about the duration of a complete training cycle) seems to be mostly used for projecting labour market developments.8

See Mangozho (2003), section 1.2 From Conventional Manpower Planning To Labour Market Analysis for the explanation of these changes in terms of changes in the economic and labour market dynamics. 6 In a conference in St. Petersburg some of the more qualitative methods used for identifying future needs were discussed. Mainly they focus on a qualitative methodology whereby trends and developments are determined through questionnaires. Under this methodology different approaches were presented, such as the Aster method (developed by CINOP in the Netherlands), the quick scan method (developed by Fontys University), and the Interactive LMA (developed by AMU-Gruppen). See for an example as applied in Uzbekistan in one sector: Report Labour Market Analysis Pilot Projects in Uzbekistan Prepared by the National Observatory of Uzbekistan in cooperation with Fontys University and with the support of the European Training Foundation, Eindhoven 2000 7 See also Sparreboom (ILO, 2009) who refers to the use of a type of trend analysis: A precursor to the building of a fully-fledged econometric model is the construction of an industry-occupation matrix, and to use this matrix to make projections based on expected economic growth rates (by industry).This approach has the advantage that it is relatively simple to carry out, and will provide some insights in the development of occupations/skills in the near future. The feasibility of this approach has recently been tested by the ILO for selected countries, and a tool that has wider applicability is being developed (see box 3).It should be emphasized, however, that this tool is not intended to be a substitute for an econometric model, and should only be used in conjunction with other methods (page 7) 8 See also Hopkins (2000) who expresses as follows in his introduction of his thesis Manpower planning revisited: How to determine the future training needs of the labour market in developing countries is a question that has confronted manpower analysts and educational planners for decades. There is no easy solution simply because no-one can forecast the future and, therefore, what labour demands are likely anymore than one can predict stock market movements or future economic growth rates. This has not stopped people from trying. However, models to perform manpower analyses have been subject to such scathing criticism that () manpower practitioners have shied away from modelling techniques and as such there is a gap to be filled. As now a combination of techniques under the general heading of "labour market signalling" have become the accepted methods, in recent years, to assess manpower needs. However, few countries have created a system to do this and there is much theorizing but little action. He has proposed in his thesis a model MACBETH for forecasting purposes and tested it for a developing country.

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3.3 LMI needs for TVET policies 3.3.1 General

A brief description of the functions of LMI for TVET policies has been given by Mangozho (ILO) stressing the role of training institutions in TVET in the use of LMI: These institutions need to get information on labour market trends, skill requirements of the economy, technological changes and how they affect skills development, programs offered by other (competing) institutions, etc, to be able to develop and run programs efficiently. The curricula and the types of programs these institutions offer have to be adjusted on a regular basis so that graduates from these institutions have the appropriate and relevant skills for an ever-changing marketplace. The planners and program developers in educational and vocational training institutions use information on labour market trends and the anticipated impact of technological changes on future skill requirements to help determine the kinds of programs to offer and the number of students to accept in each program. Guidance counsellors in these institutions use the results from graduate follow-up (tracer) studies along with information on anticipated skill requirements to help students make decisions concerning the particular educational and vocational training programs they should pursue. Many times the questions, such as what does LMI seek to answer and which type of information is needed for TVET policies9 have been addressed, again by Mangozho in his elucidating document on current practices in LMIS development for HRD planning. Adapted from his proposals and focused on the function of LMI for TVET policies the following scheme is suggested for NAVTTC: Table 3.2: TVET policy questions and type of information required
Expectations of TVET policy-makers and TVET programme administrators How are occupational structures and skill patterns changing in response to economic, sector and technological changes? Type of useful information Time series of employment according to occupational/skills categories and sector Indicators for economic, technological and organizational changes per sector, like labour productivity, firm size distribution, size of the informal labour market. Projections of labour demand according to occupational/ skills categories and sector Emerging new skill needs per occupational category

Which will be the future skill and occupational areas and what will be the implications for the capacity and content of training and retraining programmes?

See Mangozho, ILO, 2003 An interesting list of indicators, based on measuring of shortages and unemployment, is presented by Kurt Emmerich in his paper Labour Market Indicators to Identify Qualification-Based Labour Market Mismatches, undated. He also takes duration of vacancies into consideration and formulates them so that regional, occupational and educational disparities can easily be compared.
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How can mismatch in the skilled labour market be limited through training and re-training

Current information and projections of labour demand and supply according to occupational and skills categories Time series on: vacancies, shortages, unemployment, inactivity, underemployment (time-related, earningsrelated and skills related) Jobs created and destructed (annually) according to occupation, sector and firm size Yearly overview of HRD and employment policy measures by ministries, public organizations, private associations, CCIs, etc. Changes in labour legislation affecting the functioning of the labour market (e.g. hiring and firing measures, collectively agreed wage structures, labour cost information, work time measures) Time series of socio economic, educational, occupational and employment status, and work conditions of specific target groups Qualitative information on (mid-term) changing skill needs per occupational category mobility of labour : geographical, occupational, sector-wise and firm mobility Indicators for willingness of the workforce to participate in (re)training programmes Indicators for access of the workforce to (re)training programmes projections of occupation and skill demands at mid term descriptive information on required skills per occupation earnings and wages information per occupation work conditions per occupation information on educational and training pathways per occupation career pathways for occupational categories

What is the likely impact of proposed employment measures on job creation and destruction and which consequences will they have for TVET training policies?

How can the labour market status of specific groups in terms of access to the skilled labour market be positively influenced (e.g. women, youth, minorities and disabled)? How can TVET be fine-tuned to produce a flexible labour force under a dynamic work environment?

How can vocational counseling and career guidance support learners in their TVET educational and occupational choices?

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Which is the labour market relevance and quality performance of TVET training?

Placement ratios and career paths of TVET graduates and learners receiving course certificates (though tracer studies) Assessment of relevance of TVET training for job requirements by TVET graduates and course learners (tracer studies) Employers assessment of relevance and quality of TVET training (employers surveys, focus groups, etc)

How adequate is the TVET infrastructure in responding to the skill requirements in the labour market?

Time series on: Capacity (and capacity restrictions) of TVET training institution and courses according to type of course, occupation/ skills category (inflow, enrolment) Number of TVET graduates, certified learners per type of course and occupational/skill category Degree of adaptation of occupational standards and curricula in relation to its institutional and regulatory framework

The above types of information can be clustered into nine categories of data and information requirements. This data need to be collected regularly - the periodicity depending on the policy question to be answered - at the relevant geographical levels. The categories are 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. contextual data and indicators: demographic, macro- and sector-economic and labour productivity, indicators for technological and organizational changes, labour legislation; data on the current and future demand for occupations, their content, skill requirements, work conditions, working hours, and earnings profiles (including demand from abroad); data on the supply of labour for different occupations, including the outflow TVET graduates into the labour market; indicators on employability and career opportunities of school leavers and labour market entrants; indicators on mismatches in the labour market on the demand and supply side; data on student and learners flows into through and out of the TVET system and information on education and training institutions as well as various forms of skill development practices (formal, non- formal and on-the-job (re)training); assessment data on the quality and labour market relevance of education and training programmes and curricula; indicators to describe the labour market position of specific target groups in the labour market and on the educational market; and data describing labour market dynamics, labour market flow data: on the demand side destruction and creation of jobs and on the supply side several forms of labour mobility

7. 8. 9.

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3.3.2 LMI needs of NAVTTC

The LMI needs issue was already addressed five years ago for the predecessor NAVTEC in the assessment for Pakistan. Sparreboom summarised the LMI needs of (then) NAVTEC as follows by referring to the Government document on Skills Strategy: The skills policy document highlights the need for information and analysis to inform skills development policies and provision, an issue that was also part of the justification for the establishment of NAVTEC. To this end, a series of methods are mentioned, (), such as labour market signalling, the use of tracer studies, the construction of a job opportunity index and sector studies. The Government is expected to develop capacity to do this work, but also to commission research, as well as to facilitate the production of LMIA by other organizations. LMIA should not only cover the supply and demand for skills, but also the impact of current and future provision on employability, and the linkages between skills development and broader economic objectives. SSCs are expected to have a pivotal role in providing industry intelligence about current and future skill needs. 10 In principle this approach is still valid and in line with a strategy which aims to redirect the Pakistan TVET system from a supply- to a demand-driven system. Furthermore by commenting on this (older) skills development strategy document he noted that however, it (the policy document) does not contain an action plan, in which resources, responsibilities and activities are clearly spelled out. The development of an effective system of LMIA to inform skills policies requires the coordination of activities between a wide range of actors, and takes time to develop. These general observations are still relevant for the successor organization of NAVTEC, NAVTTC. In section 2.3, the major functions of NAVTTC according to its Act are described. A subject not yet addressed is which other stakeholders at federal, provincial and district level are involved in TVET policy-making and implementation, what kind of LMI they need and how the division of tasks between NAVTTC and these other stakeholders is to be considered. The consultants did not find an answer in the regulatory and other documents. Through interviews with stakeholders it was found that very different views exist on the role of a range of stakeholders. This is all the more understandable since as a consequence of the 18th amendment to the Constitution, many tasks and functions have been devolved to other levels. Several ministries and public bodies have been abolished or are in the process of restructuring. The relevant stakeholders in the TVET domain, as far as they are to be involved as providers and/or users of LMI, are reflected in scheme 3.1 below.

10

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Scheme 3.1 Stakeholders in the TVET area as providers and/or users of LMI

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As mentioned, in order to set the scope of LMI work in NAVTTC, it will be necessary to reflect on the division of tasks between NAVTTC and other stakeholders in the TVET area. This directly relates to the way NAVTTC understands its mandate in general, especially in relation to the other (provincial and district) levels, and how it assesses the role of the private sector in the involvement of its operations. This has not yet been definitely set. NAVTTC will be assisted by the GIZ TVET Reform Support Programme to define its tasks and roles, the ways of cooperation with other stakeholders and the consequences for its internal structure and operations and management and staff capacities. It is here, however, assumed that the TVET system in Pakistan, given the devolution of ministerial tasks to other levels, will be based on the principle of multigovernance. Following this assessment a few observations as to the role of LMI for TVET policy-making need to be made. Thereby in the background the distinction plays a role as to (1) collecting data for LMI, (2) data analysis to transform this to LMI, and (3) the use of LMI for policy-making purposes. It is assumed that NAVTTC will leave room for other administrative levels, not only for implementation of TVET but also for TVET policy-making and planning. It is also assumed that provincial TEVTAs, in close consultation with the private sector, will have a mandate to adapt the capacity of the training institutions and courses to the needs of the local labour markets in their provinces. Local labour markets are likely to be defined in terms of district labour markets, but this can only be assessed on the basis of geographical labour market analysis (i.e. commuting and migration patterns of labour and more specific the employability of TVET graduates in the region where they have studied). Having said this, it follows that stakeholders at local and provincial level will also need to generate LMI for their policy purposes. Here a distinction should be made between a number of TVET policy issues. For example, assessment of quality and labour market relevance of education and training is in the first place a task for the training institution, closing and opening new training departments given the labour demand developments in a region could be assigned to the provincial level, and the overall planning of training capacity, in view of national economic and development policies and the policy to stimulate labour migration, could be a task for NAVTTC. It is recommended that for each of the questions mentioned in table 3.2 it will be agreed which functions and tasks will be designed to NAVTTC and which to other stakeholders. This brings us to a first line of thinking as to where and how LMI should be generated and used and how the data and information flows will be structured. The other line of thinking concerns the instruments for data collection for LMI (currently used and to be used in the future) and the levels from where the data are collected. It is obvious that much of the data is to be generated at grassroots level: companies, employers, households, students/learners, training institutions, etc. To the extent that data collectors can and should also be users of the information at local and provincial level, and to the extent that they have administrative capacity to process and analyse the information for their own needs, LMI generation can and should be done at local and provincial level. However, in order to make the LMI methodologically sound and comparable for e.g. regional benchmarking purposes, NAVTTC should take the lead in coordination and guidance of these processes. This refers for instance to table descriptions for information to be generated from existing (or new) administrative sources, setting the (minimum) content of questionnaires, work plans for standardized data collection and data processing. NAVTTC may coordinate the implementation of a mutually agreed work plan to gradually expand the generation of LMI, may assist in coaching and guiding the use of LMI for TVET at other administrative levels, and coordinate the streamlining of the delivery from the field level to the Page 25 of 76

intermediate (provincial) and national level. NAVTTC may also design and monitor a plan for dissemination of analysed LMI to the stakeholders at various levels. Note that at national level a few other stakeholders are also collecting labour market data with their own objectives and work plans and work processes. Especially the FBS has long experience in providing labour market data from the Labour Force Survey and other statistics. NAVTTC should have the coordination role for the definition of LMI needs for the TVET sector. Active participation in the Commissions of users of FBS is one of the means of coordination with the FBS. The private sector is now only to a limited extent involved in LMI generation. Some CCIs and business associations have included some employment and other labour market information in sector reports. Assistance is sometimes given for the collection of data by public organizations. However, representatives of the private sector have expressed their willingness to cooperate in promoting the collection of labour market data, esp. for the organization of employer surveys or forum group meetings. FPCCI, the Webcop platform, and the Engineering Development Board can at central level support private sector involvement and make the data collection (esp. from employers and companies) more reliable, valid and sustainable. It is likely that these organizations will need to create some administrative capacity for this purpose.

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Chapter 4 Assessment of available LMI in Pakistan

4.1 Identification and assessment of LMI data sources
Below the main sources and types of key LMD currently available in major statistics are presented. Since all statistics have different main objectives they all cover only partial aspects of the labour market. It is likely that data comparison from one source to the other will reveal that there are differences in definition, ways of measurement and validity of the data. A review and comparison of the available LMD from various sources may nevertheless give better insight in their usefulness. Table 4.1: Labour market data sources and types of data available, periodicity and regional differentiation

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Table 4.1 shows that the LFS provides the most elaborate data and allows for the composition of time series. Both supply and demand figures are in it. Apart from some geographical migration data in LFS no flow figures are found in any type of statistics. Vacancies are not measured in any source either.11 The Population Census of FBS contains some labour market data. The questionnaire for the forthcoming Population Census, seemingly much like to the one used for the Population Census 1998, contains questions on the socio-economic and employment status of the population. It will measure employment but unfortunately the characteristics and occupation will be measured at a rather high digit classification level in the short questionnaire (for the largest part of the population), which will be only of limited value for NAVTTC. A sample of the population will be subject to a longer questionnaire with a 3-digit level for occupation and 2-digit for education (level and branch of education). It is recommended to consider the use of more differentiated classification, preferably 4-digit for both variables, at least for a predefined range of occupations for skilled workers. Additionally the long version of the questionnaire contains other relevant questions on disability, status in the household, geographical migration (internal and external) and the key personal characteristics (age, gender). CMI data are collected by FBS and focus on, measuring employment besides several economic and production indicators. Various categories of employees (regular, contract, casual paid, contributing family workers and working proprietor and active partners) are distinguished. Data are provided according to gender and occupation (at least in Sindh province). The data also contain information on wages and labour costs differentiated into a few categories. Relevant to mention is that for TVET policy purposes the occupational classification should preferably be on 4-digit level and the education classification at 3-digit level. This is not the case for any of the statistics. FBS is willing to provide micro-data sets to the users and is open to adding more questions provided that it is methodologically and practically feasible. FBS is also willing to consider the use of more refined classifications for education, sector and occupation under the same conditions. Mainly sample restrictions have to be taken into consideration. LMIU in the MoLMP The Ministry of Labour and Manpower in collaboration with the ILO and the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) initiated the development of a Labour Market Information and Analysis system, which became operational in the second half of 2006. The aim of the system is to provide up-to-date and timely Labour Market Information and Analysis that serves as an input for the formulation of decent employment and other policies. The LMIA Unit aims to produce a series of reports on the labour market entitled Pakistan Employment Trends. These issues of Pakistan Employment Trends are based on the set of key labour market indicators and based on data from FBS, mainly form the LFS. The project has run from 2006 until June 2011 and the Unit, finally consisting of 18 staff, has produced valuable reports on labour market developments in the country. Of special importance for NAVTEC/NAVTTC were the publications on skills (Employment Trends
11

The Survey reports of the Annual Establishment Enquiry of Sindh contain a field for vacancies, but it appear not to be filled. The latest one published is for July 2007-June 2008. Publishing of later years awaits funding.

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2007, covering the period 2000- 200612) and specific reports like the one on Faisalabad. Information from various sources is analysed and time series assembled on a number of variables, like occupation, type of vocational and technical training, wages, educational attainment, and working hours. Extension of the time series after 2005-6 and some more policy-oriented analysis is still possible and might contribute to the needs of NAVTTC. The document, however, also shows the classification limitations of the FBS data in terms of occupations, education/training and region, both for the supply and the demand side. For the district of Faisalabad several one-time labour market reports have been produced, with one focusing on skills for which more LFS-type data were collected. The report includes similar variables, but even more than the general document is lacks sufficient detail for occupation and educational branches to make it immediately usable by NAVTTC and other policy-makers in TVET.13 The publications on the one hand demonstrate that general labour market information can be derived from existing statistical sources and that international and internal/regional comparisons can be made. They also demonstrate that the usefulness of composing time series to gain insight in trends. On the other hand they show that additional information needs to be collected through FBS or other methods to make the labour market information relevant for the policy questions that NAVTTC needs to answer. Sindh province Sindh province has some additional information. Firstly, the Labour Department registers information of the provincial exchange agencies. Seventeen employment exchange agencies exist and in Sindh. They continue to function, deviating from the other provinces where they became defunct many years ago. Nevertheless their coverage (vacancies and job seekers are registered on a voluntary basis) is low with 30,000 50,000 job seekers registered for about 9,000-10,000 jobs. There is an instruction manual for employment exchanges, which also contains a chapter on registration and statistics to be made. A plan exists to go online for employers and users by developing an electronic placement system. Occupational information is registered by the exchange agencies. Exchange agencies in Sindh province are usually located near training institutions. Under discussion is whether Sindh TEVTA will take over authority. A plan exists to start a survey of training institutions in Sindh by the Directorate of Manpower and Training on Professional, technical and vocational training. The survey has not yet been implemented. The questionnaire contains questions on inflow, outflow and enrolment of students (but not according to trade/subject/faculty), course information (in-service/regular), per course, and some characteristics of the training institution (e.g. number of training staff on the day of the visit). No coordination with NEMIS on this plan was envisaged.
12

LMIU, Pakistan Employment Trends Skills, December 2007, no2. The conclusions in this report confirm this as they request for additional data collection: In addition to labour force surveys at regional level, better data collection mechanisms to specifically inform skills policies and TVET reforms need to be developed, such as establishment enquiries to ascertain skills needs through sector level surveys. Additional sources of information on job vacancies and skills needs would also complement these surveys. By using these different sources of information, skills requirements in selected industries can be analyzed in the context of planning frameworks at the sector level. With these studies, policy-makers will be able to make informed decisions regarding skills and TVET reforms, in order to help enable Pakistan develop a skilled workforce to be competitive in the global marketplace. Another method of assessing skills supply is through tracer studies.
13

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The World Bank has started to support Sindh province by strengthening its training programmes to improve the skills set and employability of trainees. Quoting from the appraisal document:14 the project seeks to benefit 50,000 youth in Sindh through skills development. The trainees will be between 18 and 35 years of age. Beneficiaries will be informed via province-wide information campaigns and selected based on meeting the minimum criteria for the particular training program and testing of basic skills in the case of excess demand. The target group includes semi-literate men and women. Most courses require 10 years of schooling or less. A small share of the trainees will be unemployed youth with 12 years of schooling that will be assisted to transition from school to work. The majority of the trainees, 45,000, will be trained through a short term training program, while around 5,000 will be trained through institutional training programs during the Project period. There will be a specific focus on selecting youth from the poorer and less developed districts of Sindh. The program will specifically offer young girls opportunities for skills development. Future trainees enrolled in the established market driven institutional training program will also benefit from the investments made during the Project. In addition, the program will benefit the competitiveness of the companies hiring the skilled labor. It is envisaged that strong linkages will be made with the industry to achieve the project objectives. SNA, tracer studies and measurement of placement rates are foreseen. LMI data collection in Sindh province may call for coordination with surveying activities for these purposes. Punjab province Punjab TEVTA is currently developing three sub-systems: a Labour Market Information System; a District Wise Information System with, amongst others, skills mapping information; and an Online Placement System.

They have outsourced many of their activities to Multiline, a consultancy company. The LMIS system was inspired by systems developed in other countries: Sri Lanka, Malaysia, Philippines, South Africa, and the UK. Only Sri Lanka was visited by one TEVTA staff member. For the LMIS in the first place the LFS is used, but also sources from ministries and other public bodies. The first two contain information based on different methods of collection among industry, training institutions and TVET graduates, as well as other sources. The website (http://www.tevta-slmis.gop.pk) gives for the LMIS part quite a lot of LMI, part of it being on international level. Background information is not only presented on labour and employment, but also on economic and educational indicators, etc. For labour information they rely strongly of the LFS. No systematic comparison is, however, made between provinces or between Punjab and the national level. More emphasis is given to the demand side than to the supply side. In general, existing sources could not easily be tapped through the internet, or even by provision through email upon request. The consultancy company that developed the system had to collect a lot of data/information on the basis of visits in Punjab and at federal level.

14

World Bank, Project Appraisal document for Sindh Skills Development project, May 2011

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The future dimension of LMIS is underdeveloped until now: no projections are made for the demand and supply side, but the business surveys (questionnaire provided to us) contain some information on expected skills needs in the next three years and actors influencing it. Punjab TEVTA has recently started skills mapping surveys in all districts. Companies were visited and interviewed for this purpose. LCCI and other CCIs facilitated the surveys, but despite that the interviewers faced many (non-response and reliability) problems in collecting information from companies. It indicates that a written questionnaire or online approach will only be successful after strong promotion by business associations. Results are laid down in skill-mapping reports. Sialkot district was used as a pilot. This document contains the following information: elaborate background information on Sialkot district; and economic information: available TVET structure (however no graduate information per trade, no inflow information: some enrolment information) - there is a need to upgrade this in consultation with NEMIS; an industrial profile with a focus on the most important industries, but not much attention on the service sector; employment / labour information is very scarce in this report; LFS, establishment surveys, living standard surveys or MoLMP data were or could not be not used; the chapter Data Analysis and Skill Mapping relies on company visits, interviews and forum groups meetings. According to Multiline the cooperation with companies was difficult; the identification of trades for Sialkot is based not only on company information, but also on interviews with teachers/trainers. The employer information is more detailed, but not quantified; on the basis of forum group discussions, a ranking of high-in-demand skills and trades is made (but no quantitative indications), including G-levels; estimates of the rate of filling new and replacement demand by TVET graduates is made; and a final table gives rough estimates of tentative labour required in the next three years (likely: new demand). The number of vacancies is, however, not measured.

Multiline is developing an online placement system which was demonstrated at the stakeholder workshop in Islamabad. It will cover the whole province. The target groups are TVET graduates and employers requesting skilled labour. TEVTA placement officers are in charge of promoting the system getting employers interested. Until now only 500 jobs are registered and not more than 2000 jobseekers. This coverage is low, but the system is still under development. The system is free of charge. Reporting modules are envisaged which will give statistical information on a regular basis. Description of skills and occupations is not pre-defined for both sides (supply and demand), and may need some streamlining, also for statistical reasons (e.g. with classifications used by FBS). Punjab TEVTA plans to start advertisement statistics to indicate skilled labour demand. Similarly they plan to start regular tracer studies. Much of the work is now done by the consultancy company. They have made suggestions regarding the capacity of a unit within TEVTA to run the LMIS (10-12 staff), and circa 100 additional staff at district level (placement officers and industrial advisory Page 31 of 76

groups). A work plan needs to be designed for a properly structured LMI unit in TEVTA, and it is likely that new staff needs to be attracted and trained. The education information per training institution may need to be upgraded. Here, cooperation with NEMIS is recommended. In general, for all three components of LMIS it is recommended that: an evaluation of the placement system will be carried after half a year of full operation. It is envisaged that promotion of the system (training institutions and district offices to be involved) will be necessary; sustainability of the LMIS and the placement system is guaranteed. At the moment, there is a very strong reliance on one enthusiastic and competent consultancy company. Building a cell within TEVTA Punjab with staff who have labour market, IT and placement expertise will guarantee this better than under the current conditions; some weaknesses in the current system need to be addressed, especially the regular updating of LMIS needs to be warranted. The LMIS system should preferably allow benchmarking Punjab information against other provinces as well as internally between districts. For this, building staff capacity might be necessary. Also a clearer development work plan with activities/outputs described in detail seems to be lacking; coordination with the LMI cell at NAVTTC and other provinces will be designed in an efficient and effective way. The NAVTTC cell should not duplicate work, but might enable TEVTA Punjab in several ways: methodological guidelines, evaluation and development of LMIS, coordination function for all provinces, provision of data from national sources. coordination with work done under the DFID-financed Punjab Economic Opportunities Programme (PEOP), running from 2010/11-2014/15 in the southern districts of Punjab, will be realized. This programme contains skills development elements. similar coordination will be done with work under the World Bank-financed Promoting Cluster-based Skills Development in Punjab. This project will be implemented in collaboration with Punjab TEVTA. The project document15 envisages a number of activities which requires SNA. The establishment of 22 career centres to provide placement services to TVET graduates will likely require local labour demand information.

PVTC in Punjab province is a zakaat-funded vocational training body with 154 institutions and is due to expand to 204 institutions by the end of 2011. PVTC covers 44 trades from all sectors of the economy, including health and education. About 162,000 trainees were trained since its start. There is an annual capacity of about 31,000 trainees, 90% of which are from poor families whose training is free of charge while others are paying a course fee. Courses are practice-oriented with 80% practice and 10% theory. Included is a two-month internship for all. Courses are about 8 or 14 months. The target group age is 16 to 49 years, but mainly young people from poor families join the programmes. PVTC also assists in finding jobs for their learners. A strong infrastructure of Application Placement Officers exists in all training institutions. They assist in SNA, finding internships, and placing certified learners. Additionally, PVTC assists in starting up businesses, e.g. providing equipment. They introduced youth social entrepreneurship (a
15

P-TEVTA, Promoting Cluster-based Skills Development in Punjab, Project Concept Clarence Proposal for TA, February 2011

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combination of doing social work and practical start-up of a business) in their programmes. They face some problems of formal recognition of their certificates. There are prerequisites for entering a course, depending on the level and complexity of the course. The training institutes have Institution Advisory Boards with strong industry participation. They also implement regular teacher industry training to keep them up-to-date. The results of a recent SNA survey, although carried out for all sub-districts in which PVTC works, show that the information is only qualitative in nature, and the methodology (sampling etc.) is unclear. The reports provide priority trades for vocational training, sector information and training institution information. However, there is no information on enrolment per trade, inflow, outflow of graduates, or course-to-work transition information. PVTC has a graduate tracking system included in their MIS system which tries to assess job placement rates and quality of training received. They report relatively high placement rates to about 70%. Good links with LCCI and business associations have been established. Information-sharing with other institutions, however, is low. For example survey reports are not published on the website http://www.pvtc.gop.pk/Statistics/VSt.aspx. Labour emigration In 2009, the Government of Pakistan published a National Emigration Policy document 16 to promote the regular emigration and protection of emigrants. Recognizing the huge employment potential in the destination countries, with a focus on the Middle East and South East Asia, it is considered that income earned abroad can benefit Pakistans development. The Bureau of Emigration and Overseas Employment (BEOE17 deals with the registration of emigrating labour. This is done in the framework of their licensing and legal registration work for labour emigrants. The registered migrants are more or less the same group that actually leaves. They register information such as the name, contact details in Pakistan, passport and CNIC numbers, skills/professions (through 42 classification options), gender, date of birth, name of foreign employer, trade required by the foreign employer, contract details (e.g. destination country and planned contract period). Contract extensions in the destination country are not frequent. Only when a visa extension is necessary or a contract with a new employer abroad is agreed upon it needs registration with the embassy. This individual information is not likely to be added to the already existing file. The bureau produces statistical reports from their database of registered labour migrants, but does not publish them. They are open for data queries. It is likely that time series can be generated from the database. A few years ago, they cooperated with the International Organization for Migration (IOM) to generate migration
16 17

http://www.lmis.gov.pk/publications/NMP.pdf Quoting from the website of BEOE: The BEOE was setup on 1st October, 1971 with the amalgamation of three federal government departments viz. i) National Manpower Council ii) Protectorate of Emigrants and iii) Directorate of Seamens Welfare under the directive of Government of Pakistan Bureau started functioning under the Emigration Act of 1922 and Rules (1959) which were subsequently replaced by the Emigration Ordinance 1979 XVIII and Rules made there under. As such, the Bureau has evolved a conducive, pragmatic, effective and systematic emigration policy under the emigration laws. The Bureau being, a regulatory body/authority controls, regulates, facilitates and monitors the emigration process conducted by the Overseas Employment Promoters (OEPs), in the private sector which are more or less 1119, besides direct employment by which mode the individual procures foreign employment either through his own efforts or relatives and friends serving abroad.

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data. Generally data are delivered upon request to government bodies such as for the MoFs yearly Economic Survey. Labour demand from foreign employers is also registered and monthly reports are created, likely with information on occupational categories and classified into unskilled, semi-skilled, and those requiring higher education. Reports are not published. The BEOE has a network of regional offices, but these do not have database facilities. Note that the BEOE will soon start a survey of returning labour migrants (at entry points in Pakistan) to assess some objective information (departure countries, contract information) but also opinion information to assess their (work) experiences in these countries. NAVTTC might wish to coordinate with BEOE on the questionnaire to make an assessment of skills and training requirements abroad. The POEPA organization is a national association with small capacity acting as an interest group for labour emigration promotion of their member companies, which are recruitment companies. The organization does not have a comprehensive database with potential labour migrants interested to go abroad and labour demand abroad. However, they have a database with contact details of their member companies (coverage 90% of all HRD Ministry-licensed companies) which is likely to be adequate for a survey of these companies. Member companies usually specialize in particular occupational areas or countries, and are of different status of quality. It is unknown what applicant information is registered in the forms and databases of members, but it is likely that occupation and education are included in it. NAVTTC has started a small survey of labour and skills demand abroad among the labour attachs of the Pakistani embassies in destination countries. The results had not all been collected at the time of drafting this report. Some other sources listed in table 4.2 overleaf contain limited data related to the labour market.

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Table 4.2: Overview of some additional LMI sources

S.N
1

Source
Pakistan Social and Living Standards Measurement Survey

Regional Differentiation
Provincial and District

Periodicity
Yearly

Data / Information
Population, Employment status, Employment, Occupation (1-digit) Level of Education (1digit), Sector (1-digit) , expenditure, opinion on economic situation, welfare and poverty Employment (e.g., sanctioned posts, vacancies, salary, domicile etc For federal employees only Labour Market Survey based on the Internationally Recognized Indicators pertaining to the employment such as KILM 1, KILM 2, KILM 8, KILM 4, KILM 3, KILm 7, KILM 6, KILM 14, KLM 11 and KILM 9 Labour Market Survey based on the Internationally Recognized Indicators pertaining to the employment such as KILM 1, KILM 2, KILM 8, KILM 4, KILM 3, KILm 7, KILM 6, KILM 14, KLM 11 and KILM 9

Annual Statistical Bulletin of Federal Government Employees 3 *Pakistan Employment Trends -2007, Skills

Federal

3-yearly

National and Provincial

One-time

**Faisalabad Employment Trends General, Skills, Youth, Women,

District

One-time

*LMIU publications based on the micro-data obtained from LFS. ** Extended LFS survey to pilot possibilities to generate LMI on district level

Skills Needs Assessment A number of organizations and training institutions are involved in TVET-related skills needs assessments. However, there are two limitations. Mostly this is done on an adhoc basis and there is a focus on qualitative, fragmentary information, often relying on quick and dirty approaches. Usually they rely on visits to (key) companies in particular sectors, forum group meetings, regular contacts of trainers/teachers with companies or feedback from TVET students (as interns in companies) and course learners. A more systematic approach has been taken by some SDCs and PVTC. Nevertheless, their reports are also not published and are of a qualitative nature. Others involved are public and private training institutions, EDB, Punjab TEVTA, CCIs, Webcop and business associations. Also HEC mentioned that HEIs and universities are on an ad-hoc basis involved in this type of SNA. There is a great need to systematize this type of work through sampled surveys among companies. A key role could be given to public and Page 35 of 76

private training institutions provided that they will be supported by private sector organizations to promote SNA surveys among their member companies. Informationsharing of skill needs reports can be improved. NAVTTC could contribute through drafting a manual with guidelines for surveying, use of various instruments, questionnaires, schemes of analyses etc. Technical Education Boards (TEBs) register graduates. Data is available with TEB in each province and is generally administered by the respective TEVTA, but are not published. It is likely that regionally very differentiated time series could be generated from their archives according to trade/subject and degree level. Note that under the TVET Reform Support Programme, a proposal is under preparation to start a special Education and TVET panel as a five-year long-term study. The preliminary plan is to start with an educational panel for several cohorts, which would not only cover educational flows through the educational and TVET system, but also schoolto-work transitions for graduates and drop-outs. Cooperation with the FBS and possibly AEPAM is envisaged. A small pilot survey focusing on transition from basic and secondary education to all streams of TVET may be implemented in advance to test whether the approach is feasible. It is recommended that NAVTTC LMI cell will use this source of information to gain insight in the labour market relevance of TVET. Note however that under the current design, data on school-to-work transition would only gradually arrive since the panel focuses on cohorts entering the TVET system. Hence, additional tracer studies are necessary to generate results in the short term. 18 It is recommended that panel and questionnaire design will be discussed at NAVTTC with a view on labour market relevance in the long run. This panel can be considered as complementary to tracer studies, but may in the long run also provide similar school-towork information. With World Bank assistance on the basis of a USD 192.2 Mln loan, the HEC will start the assessment of the higher education sector. The document describing project objectives assesses that research performance of universities is generally weak, and often not related to the needs of the economy and society. The assessment will also include labour market studies and student assessment of their education. HEC assumes that soon labour market surveys among employers and tracer studies will be implemented. The studies will be outsourced to consultants. The work will not rely on statistical studies, at least this will have lower priority, as it is believed that the statistical data is not sufficient. NAVTTEC and TEVTAs are recommended to collaborate in order to learn from their experiences. This applies especially to sampling, questionnaires and ways to reduce non-response.

18

As mentioned, also the Sindh Skills development Project supported by the World Bank supposes the implementation of tracer studies: Under the Project, as a condition of receiving funding, training providers will commit to a minimum level of job placement and/or entry to further training/education of trainees. This minimum level placement rate is initially 30 percent and will be reviewed annually based upon results in order to gradually and realistically raise the threshold. Programs not meeting the minimum benchmark will be blacklisted for a year before becoming eligible for a new contract. This performance criterion seeks to provide a strong incentive for training providers to train youth in skills that are in demand, and weed out poor performing providers.(...) The reported job-placement rate is monitored on a sample-basis by third-party validation. (World Bank, Report No: 53639-PK, Sindh Skills Development Project, Project Appraisal Document, May 4, 2011)

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4.2 Identified LMI gaps

It is worth recalling Sparrebooms general assessment a few years ago: Nevertheless, a number of challenges has persisted, in particular concerning the analysis of labour market information and vis--vis policy development in general and skills development policies in particular. These include: Lack of timely and focused analysis and interpretation of basic labour market and related indicators. Limited integration of labour market analysis on the one hand, for example conducted by academic and research institutions, and policy development on the other, mostly due to capacity constraints in the public sector. Low awareness of basic international concepts, classifications and definitions among policy-makers, social partners and other stakeholders including the media. Lack of data pertaining to topics that are high on the policy agenda such as skills development and local economic development.

This assessment is in general still valid. The following can be added to it: Deficiencies in sharing labour market data and information between stakeholders within and between the public and private sphere. The recent devolution of a number of ministries to provincial level (labour and education are most relevant for TVET) and the necessary restructuring and reallocation of their tasks have brought new uncertainties in the processes of data collection and information-sharing. As mentioned above, it is necessary to redefine and allocate the responsibilities of the various stakeholders at different levels (district, province and federal) in LMI data collection, information generation and the provision of more thorough labour market analysis and research.

In section 4.1 some indications were presented regarding the gaps in LMI. In general, there is a serious lack of data and LMI that can be used for TVET policies. Where there is information, this is in the first place of quantitative nature. The major source of information is the LFS, followed by other comprehensive statistics by the FBS (like CMI, PLSM, Population Census) and some statistics collected by the Labour Departments of provinces, but this is not done by all in a uniform and coherent way. It is observed that gaps exist in almost all other variables and areas pertaining to TVET in qualitative and quantitative terms at the district, provincial and national levels. To make projections, time series can at the moment only be assembled at a rather high aggregated levels of variables (of employment), as it demonstrated in the reports drafted by the LMIU under the MoLMP. On the labour demand side, the following serious gaps/deficiencies were found to exist: skill needs for TVET related occupations; working hours, apart from some information in LFS; labour demand abroad (in potential destination countries); work conditions; and job creation and job destruction at firm and sector level. Page 37 of 76

1) 2) 3)

On the labour supply side there are gaps/ deficiencies with regard to: demographic data and demographic projections; output from TVET providers and courses (although the provincial TEVTAs may be capable to generate time series on the basis of data in their archives); quantitative information on school-to-work transition; qualitative information on labour market relevance of TVET training; (potential and actual) labour emigration of skilled workers; labour turnover at firm level; occupational mobility; and labour market status of specific vulnerable target groups (except youth and women for some wider occupational categories). As to labour market discrepancies, the following data is largely missing: data on vacancies and skill shortages; data on unemployment at required level of education/training and occupational category; data to compile indicators of skill mismatches among the working population; earnings and wages as price information and indicators for labour market imbalances in TVET-related areas; information to benchmark districts and provinces in terms of labour market discrepancies; and internal regional migration of labour according to occupation and education. On the educational supply side there is a lack of publicly accessible information as to potential and actual educational flows of students/learners into and through the TVET system (according to trade/occupation and level of TVET) on geographical distribution, and personal characteristics like age and gender. Due to this lack of incorporation into NEMIS, furthermore institutional information is missing as to capacity and quality of training providers in TVET. Additionally there is a lack of information on their quality of infrastructure and level of equipment; utilized and unutilized training capacity per trade; numbers, qualifications and quality of teachers; financial information, etc. The heterogeneity in private training institutions and courses and the lack of an association for private training institutions makes this worse for the private training sector.

In general, Pakistan should strive towards periodical collection of similar and comparable data in order to build time series that allow for identification of trends. Two directions may be followed. The work of the FBS in generating labour market information needs to be sustained, strengthened and enhanced. The great advantage, especially for NAVTTC, is that the FBS in principle provides labour data which are comprehensive for Pakistan. The LFS can certainly be used for analysis of labour demand and supply, but due to its sampled nature it does not provide sufficient detail in terms of occupations, sectors and education/training for TVET purposes. In the future, it is worth considering introducing a more differentiated occupational and educational classification for at least a number of TVET-relevant sectors/occupations. Sampling and questionnaire consequences of such an approach need to be discussed with FBS. A similar situation exists in to the Population Census. Now that the new Census is planned to be held in 2012, there is an opportunity to review its questionnaire with a view to generate more differentiated employment and educational data in consultation with FBS. It is recommended for further improvement of the labour market statistics that FBS shall give Page 38 of 76

priority to step up to achieve the Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS) status. The SDDS status will benefit Pakistan for several reasons. For labour statistics, a strong focus needs to be given to the measurement of employment, unemployment, underemployment and wages and earnings to achieve this status.19 Given the gaps identified here, GIZ should also consider putting improvement of the FBS labour market statistics high on the agenda for the planned extension of technical assistance for FBS. Secondly, additional data and information need to be collected given the gaps identified above. For this purpose, a work plan should be designed with priorities set on the policy questions mentioned in table 3.2 as point of departure. It is likely that labour demand variables, labour discrepancy indicators and qualitative information on skills needs required will get most priority. This will then result in a work plan that may call for both quantitative and qualitative approaches in new data collection. For efficiency reasons, emphasis should be placed on involvement of training institutions and local labour departments in data collection (e.g. tracer studies and local SNA). If possible, alternative sampling methods should be used for surveys to reduce the costs.

19

IMF, 2007, 3.14 etc.

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4.3 Identification of current and potential cooperation and delivery mechanisms between NAVTTC and data providers
Table 4.3 Summary of actual and potential data and LMI providers for NAVTTC: Type of data/information (Potentially) to be delivered by Federal level Provincial/local level Contextual information FBS, NIPS, Provincial Planning and Ministry of Development Departments Finance, Ministry Business Associations of Industry, Donor support programmes , Planning e.g. PEOP Commission, EFP Labour demand FBS Provincial labour (quantitative) Departments Educational, skills and FBS, FPCCI, Business Associations , occupational needs EDB, EFP, CCIs,Training Webcop, Ministry institutions,SDCs, PSDF, of Industry PVTC Labour supply FBS. NEMIS, Provincial Labour (quantitative) NIPS Departments, Provincial TEVTAs, Provincial Education Departments Labour demand abroad BEOE, POF, Provincial offices of BEOE, and labour migration POEPA, Ministry Members of POEPA of HRD Mismatches in the labour FBS, EFP, FPCCI Provincial Labour market (vacancies, Departments, Business unemployment, Associations, District CCIs underemployment) Quality and labour EFP Business Associations, market relevance of TEVTAs, Training training institutions, SDCs Labour mobility and FBS, EFP Provincial Labour creation of jobs Departments Educational information (students, learners, training institutions) NEMIS, HEC, National Test Board TEVTAs, Skills Development Councils, Training institutions

According to Sparreboom 2.17,20 labour market information should fulfil a number of requirements to serve the needs of users. Examples of these requirements are the accessibility, comprehensiveness, timeliness, regularity, scope and coverage, accuracy, and presentability of the information stored (). Efficient delivery mechanisms for data providing and for dissemination of LMI can positively influence these requirements. As for the delivery mechanisms of data from the field level to higher levels and LMI dissemination to users, several mechanisms are used: electronically per email or on DVDs sent per ordinary mail, only to a limited extent through websites and in the form of hard copies. As far as known no Wide Area Network (WAN) exists to facilitate the transfer of masses of data between organisations. In surveys, forms are usually filled by
20

Sparreboom, 1999, page 6

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the interviewer (verbal questioning) or the respondent (written questionnaires) and later processed into databases. Online questionnaires are hardly used. The consultant team could not assess the current state of connection to the Internet among the population and among potential data providers. For the time being, it should probably be accepted that delivery mechanisms for data still need to be of mixed nature. For dissemination from NAVTTC to stakeholders and the general public, more emphasis can be laid upon the use of electronic means and websites. The NAVTTC work plan for LMI should aim at the use of electronic ways whenever possible. Participation in the promotion of egovernment, which is now underdeveloped, is recommended.

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Chapter 5 Outline of the LMI cell in NAVTTC

5.1 Scope of LMI cell tasks
Several donors, especially the ILO, have made recommendations with regard to the design and measurement of labour market indicators. At least a selection of the ILO KILM indicators were used by the previous LMIU, also used in Pakistan as a guideline for the establishment of a LMIS. To what extent these indicators meet the needs of the TVET system is to be assessed. It is likely that additional information (other indicators or new dimensions in existing indicators) will be necessary for a LMI cell in NAVTTC. It needs to be stressed that LMI generation is a complex and labour-intensive issue. A review of 24 projects carried out for the World Bank in sub-Saharan Africa made the following assessment on the operations of LMI systems. Such an assessment would not be fully applicable to a LMI cell in NAVTTC since this has a less ambitious scope, but it contains relevant warnings: LMIS and observatories became instruments of choice in virtually all projects under implementation. In total, 22 of 24 projects included labor market information systems of some kind. Results have been disappointing for the most part: implementation has been problematic. What accounts for this weak performance? The difficulty in establishing an effective LMIS is perhaps easy to underestimate. Missions and purposes must be explicit to avoid confusion. Observatories depend on others for information and this requires cooperation across bureaucratic boundaries. Quality research and researchers tend to be costly and in demand elsewhere. Dynamic leadership is required to keep information up to date.21 Now that the LMIU functioning under the MoLMP until June 2011 has been abolished or suspended, NAVTTC has to take into account this situation. The scope of the planned LMI cell of NAVTTC will be strongly influenced by this situation. Three options are possible and were discussed in interviews with stakeholders: a) Re-establishment of the LMIU The LMIU would be re-established under one of the Ministries or a public body. Logical possibilities are the Ministry of HRD, the Ministry of Professional and Technical Training (outside NAVTTC), the Ministry of Industry, or the Planning Commission. Assigning LMIU tasks to FBS and provincial Labour Departments Considering the fact that most of the work done by LMIU is of descriptive nature, not policy-oriented, this is a good possibility. Recent information suggests that this option will be chosen by the authorities. However, no strategy document or work plan has been developed yet for this option. Incorporating LMIU tasks into the LMI cell

b)

c)
21

Richard Johanson, Sub-Sahara Africa (SSA): Regional Response to Bank TVET Policy in the 1990s, Part I: MAIN REPORT, 2002, page 19.

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It is clear that under this option, the scope of tasks and required capacity of the LMI cell will be larger than under the options 1 and 2. Note that the LMIU worked with about five professional staff with labour market expertise and about thirteen technical and support staff. Whilst support staff can likely be reduced under this option, reduction of professional staff is less desirable given the huge gaps identified for LMI. Another assumption for the operations of the LMI cell in NAVTTC is that part of LMI data collection will be carried out at other administrative levels, by training providers, etc. and that provincial TEVTAs will be committed to collecting LMD and generating LMI for their policy purposes, that all other stakeholders (private and public) mentioned above will cooperate with NAVTTC in this work and that there will be sufficient willingness and resources to gradually expand LMD collection in an efficient way. As to the capacity needed at provincial level in TEVTAs, some experience is currently being gained in Punjab TEVTA which started the set-up of a LMIS for its planning purposes and curricula reform. The consultancy company driving this process has recommended that in Punjab TEVTA, capacity of about 10 staff will be created to make the LMIS system sustainable. It is envisaged that at district and training institution level about 100 staff are to be involved (at least part-time) in data collection and data processing. It needs to be assessed more precisely which tasks are to be included in the running of the LMIS system in Punjab, as part of it refers to the design, promotion and operations of a new (online) placement system for TVET. Nevertheless it indicates that if other provinces wish to repeat this exercise that sufficient staff capacity needs to be allocated to LMI gathering at provincial level. Under this assumption it is assumed that NAVTTC should at least have a LMI cell of three professional staff (labour market experts) provided that for IT support they can rely on other staff in NAVTTC, e.g. IT staff now working for NAVTTCs internal MIS system. Labour market expertise, with a strong statistical background, is likely not yet available in NAVTTC and is preferably to be recruited in a merit-based manner. The option of retraining research workers in NAVTTC for labour market is to be considered as well. Note that under option 3, the LMI cell should be extended to about eight professional staff. Whether the staff previously working under the LMIU in the MoLMP will be available is uncertain. The scope of work of this LMI cell should be defined by the LMI needs of NAVTTC as elaborated on above. Given that the scope of work is huge and complicated by the many data gaps, and that the work should be tuned to the overall work plan of NAVTTC, its management should set the work plan priorities in generating LMI for its various objectives. On the other hand it should be taken into consideration that from a review of existing statistics and ad-hoc reports, some useful preliminary LMI can already be generated. And thirdly, the initiatives of Punjab to upgrade its LMIS have to be taken into account. In any case, the phasing of the work of the LMI cell will be necessary. Given the experience with the LMIU it is to be expected that a mature LMI cell can only be achieved after about four years.

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5.2

Preliminary work plan outline

Only for options 1 and 2 reviving the tasks of the previous LMIU in one way or the other, a preliminary work plan of the LMI cell is elaborated. The following phases may be distinguished: 1. Start-up phase (about 6 months) The start-up phase would include the formal establishment, allocation of resources, recruitment of staff and capacity building 4 months; drafting of a detailed, phased, work plan for LMI provision with involvement of other stakeholders and definition of data collection and processing methods 3 months. Special attention needed for the forthcoming Population Census in consultation with FBS; and drafting of a first review of existing LMI in a report 3 months. Basic implementation phase (1 year)

2.

The basic implementation phase would involve designing a detailed work plan in consultation with other administrative levels and private sector stakeholders 5 months; reviewing the most efficient delivery mechanisms for LM data from the grassroots to the provincial and NAVTTC level (jointly with provinces and private stakeholders) 2 months; methodological support to lower administrative levels: provision of forms, questionnaires, predefined tables for various new surveys and other ways of data collection to other administrative levels 3 months; designing a reporting and dissemination plan for LMI, internally within NAVTTC and to other stakeholders (including online publishing of reports and rules for giving access to data sets); targeted data collection for new LMI addressing three key gaps, e.g. tracer studies, sampled employers surveys in sectors facing skills shortages, measurement of TVET output in terms of graduates per trade/type of skill and placement rates 3 months; first exercise to make occupational demand/ skill projections for prioritized sectors using existing data and limited employers surveys/forum group meetings 5 months; design of a joint work plan with FBS (and related stakeholders like Labour Departments in provinces) to enhance and improve regular employment statistics 4 months; support in assessment of Punjab TEVTA LMI System for transfer to other provinces 6 months; and second LMI report with policy recommendations to NAVTTC management and other stakeholders in TVET. Advanced implementation phase (2.5 years) Page 44 of 76

3.

The advanced implementation phase would include labour market analyses outsourced to research and consultancy institutes (e.g. PIDE) 3 months, to be implemented as a permanent activity. From international practice it is known that a unit like this LMI cell cannot and should not devote its capacity to detailed analytical research work to address specific questions. However, NAVTTC may be inclined to address a number of questions which need this type of research, like: individual and social rate of return analysis, description and explanation of occupational mobility, estimation of earnings functions for TVET related occupations, measurement and explanation of labour market flexibility, labour productivity analysis for sectors requiring many skilled workers, explanation of inflow rates into TVET training institutions, measurement and explanation of gender wage and occupation disparities, assessment of the factors determining the labour market position of vulnerable groups, etc; gradual enhancement of LMI data collection and data processing towards LMI for predefined variables in compliance with priority questions and areas set by NAVTTC management and in close consultation with the stakeholders. It is assumed that this can be planned for periods of about 6 months with milestones (review reports for specific questions with policy recommendations included); building capacity in the use of LMI by NAVTTC management and stakeholder management at federal and provincial level (public and private); regular, e.g. yearly, LMI reports with recommendations on fixed and predefined TVET policy areas. Additional policy reports on specific labour market topics (see above); and regular dissemination of LMI according to an agreed work plan to various target groups: NAVTTC management, other public stakeholders at federal and provincial level, TEVTAs, private sector organizations.

As mentioned above, it will likely take about four years before the LMI cell will achieve its mature state and can deliver the relevant LMI on a regular basis as described above. This also requires that the conditions mentioned above will be met as well: e.g. reestablishment of LMIU or re-allocation of its tasks, full cooperation at all administrative levels, sufficient resources at all levels to enhance data collection, strong private sector involvement for data collection, strong cooperation with the FBS and FBS commitment to adapt their data collection and statistics to (realistic) needs of NAVTTC.

5.3. Location of the LMI cell in NAVTTC

As to the location of the LMI cell in NAVTTC, two options are possible (see Annex IV for the organogram of NAVTTC): 1. 2. Location in the Division of Planning and Development under the Director Planning and Strategy Development in one of the planning units. This option is preferable if much focus will be given to LMI for TVET capacity planning. Location in the Division for Standards and Certification in one of the research units. This option is preferable if more focus will be given to the functions of LMI for improving skills and occupational standards, and curricula. Moreover, a LMI cell fits well into a research-oriented environment. Page 45 of 76

The LMI cell manager should report directly to the director of the department in which it will be placed and to NAVTTC management. Given the critical value of stakeholder involvement for the success of this cell, the Board of Members should be involved in assisting the cell in the implementing its work plan as well. It is recommended that a work group is formed by NAVTTC management and its Board of Members (or representatives assigned by Board Members from their organizations) to assist the LMI cell in its work, especially for data collection purposes. This work group could have work relationships, for example regular meetings, with corresponding work groups to be set up in the provinces. The whole process needs to be closely monitored by NAVTTC management in consultation with the most important stakeholders.

5.4 Linkage with EMIS

TVET systems, especially those which are embedded in the formal schooling system, usually develop an EMIS (Education Management Information System) as a basis for training capacity-planning and quality assurance. It is relevant that such systems are adequately linked to a LMI system, for instance in terms of student/learner flows in, through and out of the TVET training system. In Pakistan, the NEMIS system is run by the AEPAM which has recently been placed under the authority of the MoPTT. They are responsible for consolidating yearly educational data (characteristics of institutions and student learner data) from the previous Ministry of Education, and a range of public and private training institutions that are below higher education level. However, given lacking authority they have to rely on voluntary inputs for several parts of the education and training sector. This implies that most TVET institutions and courses are not encompassed in the NEMIS database. Neither does it provide student flow information, graduate information or school-to-work information. It is recommended that in consultation with the LMI cell in NAVTTC and other stakeholders (HEC, private sector, FBS, TEVTAs), NEMIS management may look into developing a work plan to extend its coverage to the TVET sector. For LMI purposes, it is of utmost importance that TVET learners are classified according to the trade/occupation for which they are trained.22

22

See also section 3.1. in reference to a plan to implement an Education and training panel in order to gain insight in the background of TVET students and learners.

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Chapter 6 Summary and recommendations

1. Based on desk research and meetings and a one-day stakeholder workshop on the current status of LMI, this report highlights the need for establishing a sustainable LMI cell at NAVTTC. It is anticipated that this facility, once operational, would be used not only for TVET-related policy-making but also as a common facility to serve other key stakeholders. In this study, important sources of LMI were evaluated for its intended usage. Country-wide providers and users of LMD and LMI were identified. This effort led to the identification of numerous data gaps. This report not only includes suggestions to fill the LMI gaps, but also specifies the scope and tasks for the planned LMI cell. Furthermore, it presents a summary of important findings and recommendations for a productive operation of the LMI cell. As stated in the preceding chapters, LMI can be used for several purposes by a variety of users at several levels. At least three levels in case of Pakistan can be distinguished: i) the training provider; ii) provincial bodies with a dominant role for the TEVTAs and Skill Development Councils, supported by the Labour and Education Departments; and iii) national bodies like NAVTTC, several ministries, the State Planning Commission, and private sector organisations Good cooperation between the above listed users with clearly defined roles and responsibilities is essential. Agreements on work plans for generating data and LMI, on ownership, dissemination and use of data and LMI as well as responsibilities for resource allocations are to be laid down to instil a good working relationship amongst the users and service providers. Table 4.1 indicates the potential of LMD and LMI providers, which also illustrates that apart from the FBS and some other stakeholders, most data providers will also assume the role of LMI users. This may in the end stimulate the commitment for sharing data collection tasks, and for processing and dissemination activities. Given the nature of economic and labour market developments, the gathering of LMI is considered to be a permanent task. However, there are and should be differences in periodicity for various policy questions and types of LM variables. The gap analysis presents a serious constraint with respect to LMI. This is in the first place of a quantitative nature. The major information source is the LFS, followed by some other comprehensive FBS statistics (like CMI, PLSM, Population Census) and some statistics collected by the provincial Labour Departments (but not by all in a uniform and coherent way). Page 47 of 76

2.

3.

4.

5.

6.

7.

The LFS may certainly be used for analysis of labour demand and supply, but due to its sampled nature it does not provide sufficient detail in terms of occupations, sectors and education/training for TVET purposes. For the future, it is worth considering introducing a more differentiated occupational and educational classification for at least a number of TVET relevant sectors/occupations. Sampling and questionnaire consequences of such an approach are to be discussed with FBS. A similar situation exists with regard to the Population Census. Now that the new Census is planned for 2012 there is an opportunity to review the questionnaire in perspective of generating more differentiated employment and educational data in consultation with the FBS. It is observed that gaps and lack of reliability exist in almost all other variables and areas pertaining to TVET in qualitative and quantitative terms at district, provincial and national levels. To make projections, time series at the moment can only be assembled at rather high, aggregated levels of variables (of employment). On the labour demand side, the following gaps were found: o o o o o skill needs for TVET related occupations; working hours; labour demand abroad (in potential destination countries); working conditions; and job creation and reduction information at firm and sector level.

8.

9.

10.

On the labour supply side there are gaps/deficiencies with regard to: demographic data and demographic projections; output from TVET providers and courses (although the provincial TEVTAs may be capable to generate time series on the basis of data in their archives); quantitative information on school-to-work transition; qualitative information on labour market relevance of TVET training; potential and actual labour emigration of skilled workers; labour turnover at firm level; occupational mobility; labour market status of specific vulnerable target groups (except age and gender for some wider occupational categories); and potential skilled labour supply for work abroad.

11.

As to labour market discrepancies, the following data is largely missing: data on vacancies and skill shortages; data on unemployment at required level of education/training and occupational category; data to compile indicators of skill mismatches among the working population; earnings and wages as price information and indicators for labour market imbalances in TVET-related areas (per occupation/ occupational category); information to benchmark districts and provinces in terms of labour market discrepancies; and Page 48 of 76

 12.

internal regional migration of labour according to occupation and education.

On the educational supply side there is a lack of publicly accessible information about potential and actual educational flows of students/learners into and through the TVET system (according to trade/occupation and level of TVET). There is also a lack of published data on geographical distribution, characteristics, capacity and quality of training providers in TVET. The latter refers to quality of infrastructure and equipment, utilized and unutilized training capacity per trade, number, qualifications and quality of teachers, financial information, etc. The heterogeneity in private training institutions and courses and the lack of an association for private training institutions make this worse for the private sector. NAVTTC and other stakeholders shall devise joint priority targets to improve the situation with respect to the current LMI shortcomings; strong cooperation between stakeholders at various levels will be required, also to build time series and other type of dynamic flow information, and good phasing. As a starting point, a baseline study is recommended to further review and analyse what is now available to address the policy questions mentioned in table 3.1. Such a baseline study may also address in more detail than in this report the steps to be taken to gradually fill the gaps in the most effective and efficient ways. For efficient data and information provision, from grassroots level up to the higher levels and fast-track dissemination of information such as reports, analysed statistical information and giving access to databases, the identification of the most adequate delivery mechanisms will be a priority for NAVTTC. There are currently strong restrictions in delivering data and information through electronic means and through the internet. The work plan should nevertheless be in line with realistic e-government development goals. A baseline study in this respect must consider a systematic assessment of possible delivery mechanisms per type of information. The scope of work in the planned LMI cell at NAVTTC will depend on: the overall work plan for NAVTTC and priorities set for certain areas such as planning of training capacity, occupational/skills standards development, or procedures for assessing the quality of training providers and courses; the question whether the previous LMIU can be re-established or its functions re-allocated to existing organizations like the FBS or its integration into the LMI cell; the capacity that can be used by other stakeholders, and at various administrative levels, especially TEVTAs and training institutions, and labour departments, to generate new LMD; and the willingness and capacity of private sector representatives to promote LMD collection and the willingness of firms to participate in employment surveys and specific, qualitative forms of skills needs assessment.

13.

14.

15.

16.

For improvement of the labour statistics, it is recommended that the FBS shall give priority to achieving the SDDS status. Given the gaps identified here, GIZ shall also consider putting improvement of the labour statistics of the FBS high on the list of the planned extension of technical assistance for the FBS. Page 49 of 76

17.

NAVTTC should benefit from the experience gained by Punjab TEVTA during the development of its LMIS for Punjab. The possibilities to establish regional LMI systems in other provinces should be closely monitored and coordinated to seek integration at the national level through NAVTTC. Modalities of outsourcing more complex labour market analysis to research and consultancy companies are to be investigated. It is expected that this outsourcing can be gradually intensified depending on the scope and depth of detail of LMD collected in the future and the availability of labour market research capacity. The basic situation in this regard seems to be satisfactory, although there is a need to invest not only in fundamental scientific research, but also in applied labour market research which can meet the needs of policy-makers. Under ideal conditions, if much of the LMI is already generated in other organizations and at other levels, the LMI cell in NAVTTC may be limited to three professional staff as a minimum, and supported by IT and administrative staff of NAVTTC. If the LMIU tasks would also be incorporated into NAVTTC, up-scaling to about eight professional staff will be necessary. However, a work plan for a revitalized LMIU needs to be developed on the basis of a critical review of its previous work. It is likely that it has to be changed and adapted to the needs of a wide range of users of LMI (including NAVTTC). No effort has been made in this report to define the resources needed for running the LMI cell and its operations. It is felt that only on the basis of a more detailed work plan, taking into consideration the activities to be carried out at various levels by a range of stakeholder organizations, a budget can be formulated for the LMI cell. A preliminary work plan, which can be used as a loose framework has been set in section 5.3. It distinguishes a start-up phase, and a basic and an advanced implementation phase. It may be modified and elaborated on the basis of decisions with regard to NAVTTC priorities and agreements on cooperation between stakeholder organizations.

18.

19.

20.

21.

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Annex I General education system

Education Level /Institution Early Childhood Education / PrePrimary Primary / Primary School Middle / Middle or Secondary School Secondary (Matric) /Secondary School Higher Secondary (Intermediate) /College Higher Education / College / University Higher Education/ College/ DAI/Universities Higher Education / Universities/DAI Qualification Nos/ of Years 1-2 Learner age (Year) Below 5 Grade range 0

Nursery Certificate

Primary School Certificate Middle School Certificate Secondary School Certificate Higher Secondary School Certificate

+5 +3 +2

5-10 11-14 15-17

1-5 6-8 9-10

+2

18-19

11-12

Bachelor Degree

+4

20-24

Above 12 Above 16 Above 18

Master Degree PhD Degree

+2

25-26

+3

Above 26

The education system in Pakistan, except TVET, may be divided into the following five tiers: Tier I: (Age group: 3 10 years) Early Childhood Education* and Primary Education: (Grade 0* to 5) Tier II: (Age group: 11-12 years) Middle: (Grade 6 to 8) Tier III: (Age group: 13-15 years) Secondary Education (SE or Matric) Grade 9-10 Page 51 of 76

Tier IV: (Age group: 16-17 years) Higher Secondary Education (HSE or Intermediate) Grade 11-12 Tier V: (Age group: Above 18) Higher Education: undergraduate and postgraduate degrees

The general education corresponding to tier I to III is imparted in schools in the public and private sector whereas colleges in both sectors deliver the education corresponding to tier IV. The higher education is provided by government-chartered universities and degree-awarding institutions. The Department of Education of each province administers general education affairs, whereas the higher education sector is regulated and monitored by the Higher Education Commission (www.hec.gov.pk). Primary education (the first five years of formal education) is free for all students studying in the public sector schools. However, due to other educational and maintenance expenses, and compulsion to support family livelihood, the desire to continue education is constrained. There are drop-outs at each education level for these and other reasons such as restrictions in accessibility, affordability and lack of good career counselling. The public sector dominates the structures of primary schools, secondary and higher secondary schools, intermediate, degree colleges, and general and technical universities, and obviously its overall enrolment share is greater than the private sector institutions. The overall share of the private sector in total enrolment, however, has been expanding in recent years to reach 36%. The relative growth in enrolment in private sector educational institutions is a reflection on many shortcomings of the public sector to provide quality education. According to the Constitution of Pakistan, the general policy-planning and overall guidelines (including curricula, textbooks and standards of education) are the responsibility of the federal government, whereas implementation of policy, programmes and projects rest with the provincial governments. The Ministry of Education (MOE) at the federal level is responsible for curricula for all types of education including TVET.

www.moe.gov.pk www.punjab.gop.pk , www.balochistan.gob.com , www.ajk.gov.pk , www.gilgitbalistan.gov.pk, www.kp.gov.pk

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Annex II List of stakeholders met

The consultants spoke to the stakeholders listed in this section. In most cases, this was through a face-to-face meeting. Where conversations took place only over the telephone, this is indicated by an asterisk (*). 1) Mr. Qamar Zaman Chaudhry, Secretary Ministry of Professional and Technical Training, C-Block. Pak Secretariat, Islamabad (051-9211622, 9201782, zqchaudry@hotmail.com) Mr. Tariq Shafi Chak, Executive Director National Vocational and Technical Training Commission, 5th Flr Evacuee Trust Bldg., Islamabad (051-9205816, tschak@hotmail.com) Mr. Shahid Ashraf Tarar, Director General, National Vocational and Technical Training Commission, Islamabad (051-9215385, satarar@hotmail.com) Mr. Shahrukh Nusrat, Director General, National Vocational and Technical Training Commission, 5th Flr Evacuee Trust Bldg., Islamabad (051-9215874, srukh2002@hotmail.com) Mr. Zafar Iqbal Malik, Director NEMIS, Academy of Education Planning and Management, Taleemi Chowk, G8/1, Islamabad (051-9260674, 0300 8564010) Mr. Nasir Amin, Senior System Analyst Academy of Education Planning and Management, Taleemi Chowk, G-8/1, Islamabad (051-9261354, 0300 5389412) Mr. Muhammad Riaz, CEO Skills Development Council, G-11, Islamabad (051 2224502, ceo@sdc.com.pk) Mr. Saeed A. Alvi, Chairman Punjab TEVTA, 86-H, Gulberg III, Lahore (04299263051, 042-99268051, chairman@tevta.gop.pk) Mr. Iftekhar Ali Shah. Director (R&D) Punjab TEVTA, 96-H, Gulberg III, Lahore (042-99268058, director.rd@tevta.gop.pk) Page 53 of 76

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Mr. Muddasar Ahmad, Director Engineering Development Board, Ministry of Industry, Awami Markaz Bldg., Islamabad (051 9202674, 0333 5166139) Mr. Shaukat Khan, Chief S.O, Labour Force Survey, Federal Bureau of Statistics, G-8 Markaz, Islamabad (0302 -5040309, statpak@statpak.gov.pk) Mr. Raishad A Khan, Director Labour Force Survey, Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, G-8 Markaz Islamabad (051 9261020, 0333 -5173474, statpak@statpak.gov.pk) Mr. Qamar ul Islam, Director General National Training Bureau, Plot 39, H-9, Islamabad (051-9258801, dg@ntb.gov.pk) Dr. Javed Hamayun, Chief (Employment and Research) Planning Commission of Pakistan, P-Block, Pak Secretariat, Islamabad (051-9211642, 0333 5192766) Mr. Iftekhar Rahim, Joint Secretary Ministry of Human Resource Development, 602, B Block, Pak Secretariat, Islamabad (051-9103862, 0300-8585880) Mr. M. Raj Baloch, Director Bureau of Emigration and Overseas Employment, Ministry of Human Resource Development, G-7, Sitara Market, Islamabad (051-9253186, 0300-5082764) Mr. Tariq Mehmood, Director National Training Bureau, Plot 39, H-9 Sector, Islamabad (0345- 5132133) Mr. Zeeshan Ahmad, Research Associate LMI-Unit, Ministry of Human Resource Development, Pak Secretariat, Islamabad (0333 5351965, zeeshan.lmis@yahoo.com) Mr. Ahsanullah Khan, Chairman /Convenor* Skill Development Council of Karachi and Workers Employers Bilateral Council of Pakistan (WEBCOP), *Confederation of Pakistani Industry, Karachi (0300-8262754, 021-35435111, ahsan.ullahkhan@yahoo.com) Mr. Shoukat Ali, Secretary General All Pakistan Trade Union Congress, Karachi Member, General Council, Intl Trade Union Confederation (021-32253715, aptuc@cyber.net.pk) Mr. S. Tanweer Mohammad , CEO Hasnain Tanweer Associates (Pvt.) Limited, Karachi Human Resource Consultant: Employment Abroad and Local to MNCs and Industry Page 54 of 76

11)

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(0333-2146966, tanweer@hasnain.biz) 22) Mr. M. Shafi Ghauri, Senior Vice President, National Trade Union Federation, Industrial Relations Advisor, WEBCOP, Karachi (0333-2198211, 021-32732400, info@hsmpk.com) Mr. Amjad Ullah Khan, Member Minimum Wages Board, Government of Sindh Member, Skill Development Council, Karachi Former Vice President, Korangi Association of Trade and Industry (021-35061211, 0321-2372006, kati@cyber.net.pk) Mr. Muhammad Shabir, Deputy Director, Directorate of Labour and Human Resource, Ministry of Labour, Karachi, Sindh (0308-2781967, 021-99243896, employment_cell@yahoo.com) Dr. Masroor A Shaikh, Director (A&T) Sindh TEVTA, Government of Sindh, Karachi (021-99244112, dir_acad@stevta.gos.pk, masroor46@hotmail.com) Mr. Mohammad Asif Siddiqui, Deputy Director, Apprenticeship Training, Ministry of Labour/Sindh TEVTA, Govt. of Sindh, Karachi (021-9244009, 0345-2168766) Mr. Safdar Morawala, Chairman Standing Committee on Science, Technology and Technical Education, FPCCI Federation House, Clifton, Karachi (0300-8204397, morawala66@hotmail.com) Capt. Aqeel Murad, Member Standing Committee on Science, Technology and Technical Education, FPCCI Federation House, Clifton, Karachi (0300-9271164, murad8475@hotmail.com) Mr. Muhammad Siddique Shaikh, Chairman Standing Committee on Corporate Social Responsibility, FPCCI Federation House, Clifton, Karachi (0321-8290707, mss@progressivetraders.com) Meher Kashif, Senior Vice President Lahore Chamber of Commerce and Industry, LCCI Building, Shahrah-e-Tijarat, Lahore (0300-4001223, 042-36814045-36849892, kashif@modelsteel.com.pk) Mr. Faisal Ijaz Khan, Chairman Punjab Vocational Training Council, Government of the Punjab, Kot Lakhpat, Lahore (0300-9450000, 042-35209200, faisal.khan@pvtc.gop.pk) Mr. Mughees Ali, Manager EDCONS Institute of Business and Technology, Rawalpindi Page 55 of 76

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(0321-5352489, 051-4581080-83, mughessali@gmail.com) 33) Mr. Kashif Saeed Siddiqui, Manager (R&C/Projects) Multiline Group (an Information and Educational Company), Lahore (0333-4836099, 0300-4326624, 042-35715053-54, kashif@mlg.com.pk, kassaeed@hotmail.com) Mr. Iftikhar Ahmad, Manager (Operation) Multiline Group (an Information and Educational Company), Lahore (0300-4326625, 042-5715053-54, ift@mlg.com.pk) Ms. Hina Tayyaba, CEO/Principal Pakistan Institute of Fashion and Design, Lahore (042-35315401-9, hina.tayaba@gmail.com) Syed Muhammad Saqlain, Secretary General The Lahore Chamber of Commerce and Industry, Lahore (042-36304633, sect@lcci.org.pk) Mr. Amjad Bashir, Chief Economist The Lahore Chamber of Commerce and Industry, Lahore (042-36305538, dr.amjad@lcci.org.pk) Hafiz Shahzad Ahmad, Deputy Director Government of Pakistan-National Vocational and Commission, Islamabad (0333-5236445, 051-9205429, mrshahzadg@gmail.com) Ms. Sadia Abbasi, Assistant Director NAVTTC, Head Quarters, Islamabad (0334-5400757, 051-9204834, sadianavttc@aol.com, sadiaabbasi01@yahoo.com) Ch. Waseem Fazal, Managing Director Aksa Pvt. Limited, Gound Floor, Software Technology Park, Islamabad (0321-8505630, 042-2828176, 2827582-3, waseem@aksa-sds.com) Dr. Zafar Mueen Nasir, Director (Policies) Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad (0333-5193407, 051-9252532, zfmasir@yahoo.com) Mr.Sajid Naseer Khan, Managing Director Punjab Vocational Training Council, Lahore (042-35213524, 35209200, sajid.naseer@pvtc.gop.pk) Mr. Shoukat Ali Khan, Director (Technical) * AJK TEVTA, Muzzafarabad, AJK 05822-920964, 0346-9660370, ajktevta@yahoo.com) Professor Shakil Ahmad, Director General * Directorate of Technical Education, Peshawar, KPK (0300 9175027, prof.shakil1@gmail.com) Page 56 of 76 Technical Training

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Abdul Qayyum Kakar, Secretary * Department of Labour and Manpower, Quetta (0303-3332543, qayyumkakar@yahoo.com)

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Annex III Bibliography

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Bewick, T. et al, International perspectives on labour market intelligence, INSSO, Canada, undated British Council, Pakistan : The Next Generation, Islamabad, November 2009 Bureau of Labor Statistics (USA), Replacement needs, 2008-2018, http://stats.bls.gov/emp/ep_table_110.htm CBP, Labor market information system for TVET providers, Ministry of Education Ethiopia, 2004 Corcoran, T., Labour Market Information in Estonia -Recommendations for national measures to improve the information flow in the labour market, with particular reference to the identification of skill needs as a basis for the planning of vocational education and training. 1997 Competitiveness Support Fund CSF, The State of Pakistans Competitiveness Report 2010-2011, 2010 Department of Labour, New Zealand, Labour Market Information, http://www.dol.govt.nz/services/LMI/index.asp Dietzen, A., Selle, B., Qualifikationsentwicklung in betrieblichen Vernderungsprozessen: Zur Ermittlung von betrieblichem Qualifikationsbedarf durch Beratung, BIBB, 2003 Durr-e-Nayab, Demographic Dividend or Demographic Threat in Pakistan, PIDE Working Papers 2006:10, Islamabad, 2006 Emmerich, K., Labour Market Indicators to Identify Qualification-Based Labour Market Mismatches Institute for Employment Research of the German Public Employment Service, Fontys International Eindhoven, Netherlands, SVET project Turkey, undated Fasih, T., Linking Education Policy to Labor Market Outcomes, World Bank, Washington, 2008 Faisal, F. and Rizavi, S.S., Sustaining Gender Equity and Work Performance: Employment of Educated Women in the Public Sector of Pakistan, in: European Journal of Social Sciences Volume 20, Number 2 (2011), pp. 357 etc. FBS, Household Integrated Economic Survey, 2007-2008, June 2009 FBS, Pakistan Social and Living Standards Measurment Survey, 2008- 2009, September 2010 FBS, Pakistan Statistical Year Book 2011, Islamabad, 2011 FBS, Manual of Instructions for Labour Force Survey (2010-11), May 2010 FBS, Pakistan Labour Force Survey (2009-10), 29th Issue, January 2011 Gautz, I. and Spatz, J., Labour Market Information System in Ugand, GTZ/BMZ, 2005 Page 59 of 76

Ghayur, S., Labour Market Issues in Pakistan: Unemployment, Working Conditions, and Child Labour, in: The Pakistan Development Review, 35 : 4 Part II (Winter 1996) pp. 789803 Government of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Khyber Pakhtukhwa Millennium Development Goals, 2011 Government of Pakistan, Labour Policy 2010, May 2010 Government of Sindh, Directorate of Manpower and Training, Annual Establishment Enquiry, July 2007-June 2008. Karachi Gray, L. et al, Labour market signals and indicators - Education Research Paper No. 15, ODA, 1996 Groot, A. de, Deprived Children and Education, Pakistan, December 2007 HEC, Statistical Information Unit, Graduates Data 2005-06 to 2008-09, http://www.hec.gov.pk/InsideHEC/Divisions/QALI/Others/Pages/GraduateData.aspx Herbinger, W. et al, Pakistan Education Atlas, 2010, A joint publication of NEMIS, WFP and UN-Pakistan, AEPAM, Ministry of Education, Islamabad, Pakistan, 2010 Hopkins,, M., Manpower planning revisited, thesis no. 501, Genve, 2000 Hyder, A., Wage Differentials, Rate of Return to Education, and Occupational Wage Share in the Labour Market of Pakistan, PIDE Working Papers 2007:17, Islamabad, 2007 ILO, Bureau of Statistics, The 20 Key Indicators of the Labour Market, www.ilo.org ILO, Capacity Enhancement of Ministry of Labour through Establishment of Labour Market Information and Analysis Unit , http://www.ilo.org/islamabad/lang--en/index.htm IMF, The General Data Dissemination System, Guide for participants and users, Washington D.C., 2007 IMF, The Special Data Dissemination Standard, Guide for subscribers and users, Washington D.C., 2007 IOM, Labour Migration in Asia, Trends, challenges and policy responses in countries of origin, Geneva, 2003 Irfan, M., Pakistans Wage Stucture during 1990/91 2006/07, International Islamic University, Islamabad, December 2008 Janjua, S. and Naveed, A., Skill Acquisition and the Significance of Informal Training System in Pakistan Some Policy Implications, RECOUP Policy Brief no.7, undated Johanson, R., Sub-Sahara Africa (SSA): Regional Response to Bank TVET Policy in the 1990s, Part I: MAIN REPORT, 2002

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Kausar, T., Womens Contribution to the Family Budget: Informal Labor Market in Pakistan .(A Case Study of Bahawalpur District), Department of Economic, The Islamia University of Bahawalpur, thesis, undated Kazmi, S.W., Vocational Education and Skills Development: A Case of Pakistan, in: SAARC Journal of Human Resource Development 2007, pp. 105-117 Khan, M.A., Factors Affecting Employment Choices in Rural Northwest Pakistan, Univeristy of Goettingen, Kassel ,October 2007 Kinch-Jensen, Th., Local Partnerships for employment, Phase II, Croatia, Manual on Labour Market Analysis for Croatia, Wyg International , 2006 King,K. and Palmer, R., Skills Development and Poverty Reduction: The State of the Art, Post-Basic Education and Training, Working Paper Series - N9, Centre of African Studies, University of Edinburgh, 2006 Kingdon, G. and Sderbom, M., Education, Skills, and Labor Market Outcomes: Evidence from Pakistan, Draft, May 2007 Kock, U. and Su, Y, Remittances in Pakistan Why have they gone up, and why arent they coming down?, IMF Working Paper, August 2010 Kugelman, M. and Hathaway, R.M. (eds.), Reaping the Dividend Overcoming Pakistans Demographic Challenges, Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars Asia Program, 2011 Labour Market Information Secretariat, Labour Market Information Resource Guide, FLMM (Canada), 2004 Labour Market team SVET assisted by Margit Bjerre and Yusuf Yardimci, Handbook On Labour Market Information, Handbook on enterprise-based surveys of short and medium term qualification demands on the labour market, SVET project, undated LMIU, Pakistan Employment Trends, Skills, Ministry of Labour , Manpower and Overseas Pakistanis,2007 LMIU, Pakistan Employment Trends - Achieving MDG Target 1B, Ministry of Labour , Manpower and Overseas Pakistanis,2008, LMIU, Pakistan Employment Trends for Women Series No.5, 2009, Ministry of Labour, Manpower and Overseas Pakistanis, May 2009 LMIU, Faisalabad Employment Trends General Trends, Ministry of Labour , Manpower and Overseas Pakistanis, April 2010 LMIU, Faisalabad Employment Trends Women, Ministry of Labour , Manpower and Overseas Pakistanis, April 2010 LMIU, Faisalabad Employment Trends Youth, Ministry of Labour , Manpower and Overseas Pakistanis, April 2 010 Page 61 of 76

LMIU, Faisalabad Employment Trends Skills, Ministry of Labour, Manpower and Overseas Pakistanis. LMI-Unit, April 2010 Lynd, D., The Education System in Pakistan: Assessment of the National Education Census, Unesco, 2007 MacGrath,J, Using Labour Market Information to Enhance the Attractiveness of VET, Skills and Labour Market Research Unit, FS Irish Training and Employment Authority Budapest May 17th 2011 Mangozho,N., Current Practices in Labour Market Information Systems Development For Human Resources Development Planning in Developed, Developing and Transition Economies, ILO, Geneva, 2003 Mangozho, N., From Conventional Manpower Planning To Labour Market Analysis, ILO, 2003 Mahmood,N. The Demographic Dividend: Effects of Population Change on School Education in Pakistan, Islamabad,PIDE Working Papers, 2011: 68 Mayen, G. et al, Handbook of TVET Indicators in Jordan, NCHRD, 2005 Ministry of Education, Pakistans Education System at the Beginning of the Twenty First Century: An Overview, Islamabad, July 2004 Mitchell, J. How Information-Based Planning Can Flourish Where Traditional Politics Reign: An Example from Pakistan, in: Journal of Education for International Development 3:2 January 2008 MoLMP, Labour and Human Resource Statistics, 2000-2008, Islamabad, undated MoLMP, Decent Work for All, a growth oriented employment policy, Islamabad, 2008 MoLMP, National Emigration Policy, Promoting Regular Emigration and Protecting Emigrants, Islamabad, 2009 Multiline Group, Skill Mapping Report of District Sialkot, TEVTA Punjab, Lahore, 2011 Multiline group, Skill Mapping Report of District Rahim Yar Khan, TEVTA Punjab, Lahore (2011) Nasir, Z.M. and Nazli, H. Education and Earnings in Pakistan, undated Nasir, Z.M., Poverty and Labour Market Linkages in Pakistan, MIMAP Technical Paper Series No. 7, PIDE, January 2001 Nasir, Z.M. An Analysis of Occupational Choice in Pakistan: A Multinomial Approach, in: The Pakistan Development Review 44 : 1 (Spring 2005) pp. 5779 NAVTEC, Skilling Pakistan, A Vision for the National Skills Strategy, Islamabad, 2008 NAVTEC, The National Skills Strategy, 2009-2013, Islamabad, 2009 Page 62 of 76

National Observatory of Uzbekistan, Labour Market Analysis Pilot Projects in Uzbekistan, report in cooperation with Fontys University and with the support of the European Training Foundation, Eindhoven (2000) NEMIS-AEPAM, National EMIS Survey A baseline for strategic Development Findings and Recommendations, a joint publication of NEMIS, AEPAM, MoPTT and USAID, 2008 NEMIS-AEPAM,Pakistan Education Atlas 2010, Islamabad: http://www.wfp.org.pk/atlas/ Norric, Report on the Education System in Pakistan, October 2006 PEM, Aarhus Technical College, Review of LMI requirements of the VET system, EUfundedTVET project, phase 2, July 2006 Planning Commission of Pakistan, Workshop Report on Establishment of Sex Disaggregated Databases in Pakistan, 2006 Planning Commission of Pakistan, Framework for Economic Growth, May 2011 POEPA, Memorandum of Association of Pakistan Overseas Employment Promoters Association, under the Companies Ordinance, 1984 PPARC, Fourteenth Census of Federal Government Civil Servants, with reference date 1.07.2006, Islamabad PPARC, Annual Statistical Bulletin of Federal Government Employees, 2009-2010, Islamabad PPARC, Annual Statistical Bulletin of Autonomous/Semi-autonomous bodies/Corporations under the Federal Government, 2009-2010, Islamabad P-TEVTA, Promoting Cluster-based Skills Development in Punjab, Project Concept Clarence Proposal for Foreign Assistance, February 2011 Republic of Zambia, Ministry of Labour and Social Security, Situational Analysis of Current Practices in Labour Market Information Systems in Zambia, Lusaka, October 2004 RTI International National Observatory of Uzbekistan, Report Labour Market Analysis Pilot Projects in Uzbekistan, in cooperation with Fontys University and with the support of the European Training Foundation, Eindhoven, 2000 Sadiq, R., Performance Management tool for education (PMT), USAID, Islamabad, 2010 Siddiqui, R., Modelling Gender Dimensions of the Impact of Economic Reforms on Time Allocation among Market Work, Household Work, and Leisure. Research Report No. 185, PIDE, Islamabad, undated Sparreboom, T. Improving Labour Market Information, in Southern Africa, ILO/SAMAT Policy Paper No. 10, International Labour Organization, Southern Africa Multidisciplinary Advisory Team (ILO/SAMAT), Harare, Zimbabwe, 1999 Page 63 of 76

Sparreboom,T. and Powell, M, Labour market information and analysis for skills development, ILO, Geneva, 2009 Saskatchewan Post-Secondary Education and Skills Training, Planning for the Needs of Saskatchewan Learners, Employers and Communities, 2002 Sellin, B., Anticipating occupational and qualificational developments, Recommendations and conclusions based on a review of recent innovations in methods and instruments applied in the European Union, Cedefop, Panorama Series, 2001 Step, Disability Framework in Pakistan, 2002 Strietska-Ilina, O., et al Forecasting Education and Training Needs in Transition Economies: Lessons from the Western European Experience, Project LABOURatory, National Observatory of Vocational Education and Labour Market, Prague, 1999 Strietska-Ilina, O. et al, Forecasting Skill Needs: Methodology, Elaboration and testing, Project LABOURatory, National Observatory of Vocational Education and Labour Market, Prague, 2001 UNESCO, Boosting Enrolment in Technical and Vocational Education and Training: Strategies for Popularization in Pakistan Administered State of Azad Jammu and Kashmir, May 2009 UNESCO, Industry Relevant TVET: Approaches to promote industry/community/institution linkages in Pakistan administered State of Azad Jammu and Kashmir, Discussion Paper No. 1, Islamabad, May 2009 UNESCO, Secondary education regional information base: country profile Pakistan, Bangkok, 2010 Pakistan. Bangkok: UNESCO Bangkok, 2010. Wilson, R., Homenidou, K. and Dickerson, A. , Working Futures: New Projections of Occupational Employment by Sector and Region, 2002-2012, Volume 1, National Report, Institute for Employment Research, University of Warwick, Coventry Woods, 2004 Watson, D. (2005). Capacity building for decentralised education service delivery in Pakistan. (ECDPM Discussion Paper 57G. Retrieved July 24, 2007, http://www.eldis.org/go/display/?id=21306&type=Document Willems, E., Manpower Forecasting and Modelling Replacement Demand: An Overview, ROA-W-1996/4E, Research Centre for Education and the Labour Market Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Maastricht University, Maastricht, 1996 Wilson,R. and Bosworth, D., Working Futures 2004-2014, Qualifications Report, Institute for Employment Research, University of Warwick, Coventry, 2006 Woods, J.F. and OLeary, C.J., Conceptual Framework for an Optimal Labour Market Information System, Final Report, Upjohn Institute Technical Report No. 07-022, Kalamazoo, Michigan, 2006

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Working Group for International Cooperation in Skills Development, Skills development policies and international cooperation in East and South-East Asia, ILO, NORRAG, Geneva, 2007 World Bank, Pakistan: An Assessment of the Medium-Term Development Framework, Report No. 37247, Higher Education Policy Note, Human Development Sector, South Asia Region, 28 June 2006 World Bank, Project Appraisal document for Sindh Skills Development project, May 2011 Yasin, G. et al , Determinants of Gender Based Wage Discrimination in Pakistan: A Confirmatory Factor Analysis Approach, in: International Research Journal of Finance and Economics ISSN 1450-2887 Issue 55 (2010), http://www.eurojournals.com/finance.htm Zito, P. Labour Market Information Systems in Ivory Coast, Morocco and Peru: Comparative Report, Eloise, Turin, 2011

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Annex IV NAVTTC Organogram

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Annex V NAVTTC Act 2011

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Education Project Office Deutsche Gesellschaft fr Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH House 2-B, Street 5, Kohsar Road, F-7/3 Islamabad. Phone + 92 51 260 8986-304 URL: www.giz.de

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