OPEC June Report

OPEC
Organization
Organization of
of the
the Petroleum
Petroleum Exporting
Monthly Oil Market Report

Exporting Countries
Countries
June 2009
Feature Article:
Sustainability of current oil market sentiment
Oil market highlights 1

Feature article 3
Crude oil price movements 5
The oil futures market 9
Commodity markets 11
Highlights of the world economy 16
World oil demand 21
World oil supply 28
Product markets and refinery operations 35
The tanker market 39
Oil trade 43
Stock movements 52
Balance of supply and demand 55
Obere Donaustrasse 93, A-1020 Vienna, Austria

Obere
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Tel +43 1 21112 Fax +43 1 2164320 E-mail: prid@opec.org Web site: www.opec.org
____________________________________________________________________Monthly Oil Market Report
Oil Market Highlights

The OPEC Reference Basket surged almost 14% to average $56.98/b in May for a gain of $6.78/b,
the highest monthly average in seven months. The market was driven by improving economic
sentiment lending hope for a recovery in petroleum demand. Refinery problems in the US emerged
with the start of the driving season while implied weekly demand reached a two-year high. The fall of
the US dollar to a five-month low and the continued rally in equities also impacted the market. The
Basket continued to move higher in June as investment institutions forecast higher prices inspiring
inflows into energy futures as the dollar weakened. The Basket reached $70.87/b on 10 June.
Growth for the world economy in 2009 has been revised up slightly by 0.1% to show a decline of
1.3%. This minor change was due to upward revisions mainly in China and India. Developments in
these economies have been improving lately, justifying an upward revision for the full year. China’s
growth forecast for 2009 was increased from 6.5% to 7.0% while India was revised up from 5.0% to
5.7%. The forecast for the OECD countries remains unchanged at minus 3.8% with US GDP
expected to decline by 2.8%, the Euro-zone by 4.2%, and Japan remaining very weak with an
expected contraction of 6.4%. While developing Asia has seen some positive momentum, it remains
to be seen whether the measures taken by OECD countries are able to produce a sustainable recovery.
World oil demand is estimated to have fallen by 0.4 mb/d in 2008 following a downward
revision of 0.1 mb/d from the previous assessment. The bulk of the revision occurred in the
fourth quarter. In 2009, world oil demand is expected to see continued negative growth of
1.6 mb/d, broadly unchanged from the previous report. On a quarterly basis, the first half of the
year has seen a downward revision, while a gradual recovery in demand is expected by the end of
the year. OECD is projected to fall by 1.8 mb/d, while non-OECD should see slight growth of
around 0.2 mb/d.
The estimate for non-OPEC oil supply in 2008 remains unchanged from the previous assessment,
showing a decline of 0.2 mb/d. In 2009, non-OPEC oil supply is projected to increase by 0.2 mb/d
from the previous year, broadly unchanged from the previous assessment. OPEC NGLs and non-
conventional oils are expected to average 4.7 mb/d in 2009, an increase of 0.4 mb/d over the previous
year. In May, OPEC crude oil production averaged 28.27 mb/d, an increase of 135 tb/d over the
previous month.
A combination of the gasoline stock draws in the US, lower refinery runs and product outputs have
provided support for product markets, lifting refining margins especially in the Atlantic Basin.
However, due to persisting bearish momentum in the distillate market and expectations that gasoline
demand over the driving season will lack sufficient strength, the recent positive developments in the
gasoline markets are not expected to persist over the coming months.
OPEC spot fixtures rose in May by 21% compared to the previous month. Sailings from OPEC were
marginally higher. The tanker market rebounded in May with a good performance for the Aframax
sector. The VLCC sector continued to suffer the most from the global economic crisis and OPEC
output adjustments. Clean spot freight rates rose by 37% on average. After reaching a high level,
storage at sea lost momentum towards the end of the month due to the narrowing of the contango
structure in the crude futures market.
US commercial oil stocks continued their upward trend in May rising 14.5 mb to stand at 1,102 mb.
The build was due mainly to other products, as crude and gasoline stocks fell by 11 mb and 9 mb
respectively. European (EU-15 plus Norway) oil stocks rose 7 mb in May to stand at the upper end of
the five-year average, the surplus attributed to products. Japan’s commercial oil stocks fell a further
1.7 mb in April before gaining around 7 mb in May, according to preliminary data.
The demand for OPEC crude in 2008 is estimated to average 30.8 mb/d, a decline of 0.5 mb/d from
the previous year. In 2009, the demand for OPEC crude is expected to average 28.6 mb/d, a drop of
2.2 mb/d from a year earlier.
June 2009 1
Monthly Oil Market Report___________________________________________________________________
2 June 2009
Sustainability of current oil market sentiment

The oil market appears to have entered a new environment. At the beginning of the year, most institutions were
expecting that a continued deterioration in fundamentals would naturally exert downward pressure on prices,
particularly over the seasonally lower-demand second quarter. However, despite continuous downward revisions to
economic growth and demand expectations along with a growing supply overhang, such pressures never
materialized. Instead, prices have not only remained steady but have even moved higher. Between February and
May 2009, inventories and prices switched from the traditional inverse relationship to move in parallel, with higher
inventories coinciding with higher prices (see Graph 1).
Financial market developments have been an important factor behind this recent divergence between oil market
fundamentals and prices. Crude oil prices have shown a strong correlation with developments in the equity markets
as well as fluctuations in the US dollar. The rise in equities generally reflects an improving sentiment about the
outlook for the world economy and hence oil demand growth. As a result, crude futures and equities have risen in
tandem, on the general perception in the market that the worst is over for the world economy.
Graph 1: US Crude stocks vs WTI price Graph 2: OPEC production vs OECD commercial crude stocks
(US $/b) 120 32.0
120 1995 - 2003
Sep08-Jan09 100 31.0

100
Feb09-May-09
80 30.0
80
mb/d
mb
60 29.0
60
40 28.0
40
20 27.0
20
0 26.0
0 Jul‐08 Aug‐08 Sep‐08 Oct‐08 Nov‐08 Dec‐08 Jan‐09 Feb‐09 Mar‐09 Apr‐09
255 270 285 300 315 330 345 360
OPEC Production(RHS) OECD Crude stocks:Difference to 5 yrs avg (LHS)
(million barrels)
The growing imbalance has resulted in a contango market structure which has provided an incentive to build
inventories both onshore and in floating storage. This has helped to push OECD commercial crude oil inventories
toward maximum operational capacity, last experienced at the time of the Asian crisis in 1998. However, looking at
the difference with the five-year average, inventories appear to have peaked (see Graph 2). This turnaround is in large
part due to OPEC efforts to stabilize the market by reigning in excess supply and is the result of strong compliance of
the OPEC Member Countries with production adjustments. Moreover, seasonal demand changes and the narrowing
contango should also support a decline in the overhang in OECD crude stocks and floating storage, although from
very high levels of 70 mb and 100 mb respectively.
A key uncertainty facing the market is the sustainability of the more optimistic sentiment currently in the market,
which will largely depend on improvements in the real economy and in financial markets. While the acute tightness in
credit markets has begun to ease and equity markets have staged a steady recovery – although from a low base –
economic prospects for the coming quarters remain uncertain. Despite spreading optimism that the deep economic
downturn may reach bottom in the coming quarters, the world economy is still facing considerable challenges. In the
OECD region, unemployment is still rising; bank balance sheets remain shaky; and private consumption, investment
and exports are expected to remain subdued. These concerns could dampen or delay a global recovery. Moreover,
markets are beginning to worry about the consequences of the huge public deficits.
As for the oil market, demand for gasoline typically surges during the summer driving season and refiners try to increase
their throughputs. Over the last few weeks, some positive developments have been seen in the gasoline market.
However, under the current economic situation, gasoline demand is not expected to increase significantly in the coming
months and hence would provide only limited support for the oil market. Additionally, ample spare refinery capacity in
the Atlantic Basin should ease any risk of gasoline supply shortages during the current driving season.
In light of the considerable challenges the world economy and commodity markets, particularly the oil market, have
undergone, the worst appears to be behind us. Providing this more optimistic sentiment holds, ongoing efforts to
reduce the excess supply is the key factor in supporting market stability and should help to gradually bring
commercial inventories back to more healthy seasonal levels by the end of the year. In line with these efforts, OPEC
Member Countries at the recent Meeting of the Conference have reiterated their firm commitment to agreed
production levels, as well as their readiness to respond swiftly to any developments which might place oil market
stability at risk.
June 2009 3
Monthly Oil Market Report____________________________________________________________________
4 June 2009
___________________________________________________________________Monthly Oil Market Report
Crude Oil Price Movements

OPEC Reference Basket
Hopes for economic The market emerged volatile in May
Graph 1: OPEC Reference Basket - weekly spot crude
recovery and refinery on the back of fluctuations in the US
US$/b US$/b
problems helped dollar and equities. Speculations over
140 140
support the market the direction of the market coupled
with flu epidemic concerns weighed on 120 120
sentiment. The market moved on the 100 100
back of some healthy economic 80 80
indicators in the US. The Basket 60 60
averaged the first week $54.26/b, over
40 40
9% or $4.53 higher to close at 56.35/b.
20 20
4wD
3wA
1wA
4wA
2wS
1wO
4wO
1wJ
4wJ
1wJ
4wJ
2wJ
3wF
2wN
1wD
2wM
5wM
2wM
In the second week, volatility
sustained with the market continuing
to move on improving Wall Street 2007 2008 2009
sentiment which raised optimism for a

recovery in petroleum demand. The sentiment was short-lived with the market dominated by fund
sell-offs for profit-taking amid a recovery in the US dollar. Nonetheless, the fall of the US dollar
exchange rate to a four-month low inspired buying in energy futures and dollar-dominated
commodities. Weak demand forecasts by major institutions weighed on market sentiment as well
as fluctuations in equities and exchange rates remained a major factor in market volatility. The
Basket averaged $56.48/b in the second week, up $2.22 or 4% to close at $56.37/b.
In the third week, a refinery fire in the Graph 2: Weekly average Basket price, 2008-2009
US alerted potential seasonal fuel US$/b May - Jun US$/b
supply disruptions while ongoing 120 120
problems in West Africa kept
jitteriness in the marketplace. The 100 100
market continued to be impacted by
80 80
US refinery problems and the weaker
dollar exchange rate was offset by poor 60 60
housing data. While the market was
40 40
digesting prospects of firming demand
from China, the market moved on the 20 20
1 May
8 May
5 Jun
15 May
22 May
29 May
back of tighter supply of rival West
20 Feb
3 Apr
7 Nov
9 Jan
24 Apr
28 Nov
19 Dec
30 Jan
5 Sep
13 Mar
26 Sep
17 Oct
African gasoline-rich crude ahead of

the US Memorial Day holiday amid a
temporary disruption in deliveries at a
main import terminal. The weak US dollar remained a factor in energy futures investment. The
Basket closed the period at $58.75/b to average $57.78 for a gain of $1.30 or 2.3%.
In the final week, the Basket averaged $60.70/b rallying almost 5% for a gain of $2.92/b, to close
the week at a seven-month high of 63.54/b. The market began the week with the prospect that
OPEC would maintain steady output which helped calm the market and a rebound in equity
markets pulled crude oil prices along. Moreover, sentiment firmed on hopes for an economic
recovery and expected sustained US gasoline demand as the driving season kicked in. A weaker
US dollar to a five-month low inspired the covering of short positions.
On a monthly basis, the Basket rallied almost 14% averaging $56.98/b in May for a gain of
$6.78/b to the highest monthly average in seven months. Economic indicators showed signs of
improvement lending hope for a recovery and a rebound in petroleum demand. Refinery problems
alerted concerns over potential supply shortfall for seasonal fuels as the driving season emerged
in the US with implied weekly demand at the highest level in two years. Nonetheless, movements
in the US dollar and fluctuation in Wall Street stocks dominated market bullishness. The Basket
peaked in the first week of June to $67/b, the highest since mid-October on the back of hope for
economic recovery amid perceived positive indicators while a higher price forecast by investment
banks and US dollar weakness inspired the buying of energy futures. The Basket reached
$70.87/b on 10 June.
June 2009 5
Monthly Oil Market Report__________________________________________________________________
US market
Refinery fires and The US domestic market held steady
Graph 3: WTI spread to WTS, 2008-2009
peak in gasoline amid a narrowed contango while the
demand supported transatlantic spread widened. The first US$/b US$/b
light grades weekly average for the sweet/sour 8 8
spread was 3¢ wider with WTI/WTS at
6 6
$1.09/b in the first week. The firming
transatlantic premium supported
4 4
arbitrage opportunities and pressured
the light grade further into the second 2 2
week. Gasoline stock draws amid
prospects of rising demand ahead of 0 0
the start of the driving season
6 Jun
5 Jun
16 Jan
13 Mar
1 Aug
29 Aug
26 Sep
4 Jul
13 Feb
8 May
10 Apr
21 Nov
19 Dec
24 Oct
supported light crude oil differentials;
however, the narrowing contango
slowed the buying spree. A draw of
crude oil stocks at Cushing, Oklahoma, supported the sweet grade. The WTI/WTS spread
averaged 35¢ wider at $1.44/b in the second week.
In the third week, Sunoco’s 178,000 b/d refinery fire at Marcus Hook, Pennsylvania, prompted
fear of a shortfall in seasonal fuels. A continuously widened transatlantic spread boosted rival
grades to move westward. Winds halting onshore tanker deliveries added to the bearish
sentiment. The WTI/WTS spread peaked at $1.77/b for a gain of 33¢, the widest weekly level
since late January. In the fourth week, the return of some refineries from outages inspired a
buying spree amid firming gasoline demand as the driving season started. Narrowing arbitrage
spread also lent support to the light grade as gasoline demand emerged with weekly implied
consumption rising by 0.3 mb/d to 9.5 mb/d, the highest weekly level since August 2007. Thus,
the WTI/WTS spread was 25¢ narrower at $1.52/b. WTI averaged $57.78/b in May for a gain of
$7.96 or 16%, yet the premium to WTS was down by 39¢ to 52¢/b.
North Sea market

Weak refining The market for North Sea crude came Graph 4: WTI premium to Dated Brent, 2008-2009
margins pressured under pressure amid ample floating US$/b US$/b
North Sea crude storage with sellers offering prompt 10 10
barrels at softer levels. Poor refining 8 8
margins also added to bearishness in the 6 6
marketplace. Nonetheless, cool weather 4 4
boosted natural gas demand in Europe, 2 2
shifting the industry focus to alternative 0 0
fuels. News filtering of lower supply in -2 -2
-4 -4
June lent support to market firmness. In
-6 -6
the first week, the Brent discount to -8 -8
WTI more than doubled to $1.68/b, up
6 Jun
16 Jan
5 Jun
13 Mar
1 Aug
29 Aug
26 Sep
4 Jul
8 May
13 Feb
10 Apr
21 Nov
19 Dec
24 Oct
from 80¢ the week before. The market

emerged on a firmer note into the
second week with offers by majors at
stronger differentials amid lower loading programmes due to field maintenance. The WTI/Brent
spread was 13¢ narrower at $1.55/b in the second week.
The short June-loading programme continued to lend support to the regional market into the
third week. Poor distillate refining margins pressured the market, while the healthy gasoline
crack spread somewhat balanced sentiment. The flow of arbitrage barrels kept price differentials
from further deterioration. The Brent discount to WTI strengthened by a hefty $1.01 to $2.56/b,
the widest level since March. Continued flows of arbitrage barrels supported regional grade
differentials despite weak refining margins in the fourth week. Differentials for North Sea grade
were steady, supported by a strong market for Russian Urals crude, although weak refining
margins capped prices. Urals hit a seven-year high in the week, helping to support differentials
for alternative grades such as Forties as buyers looked for cheaper alternatives. In May, Brent
averaged $57.27 for a gain of $6.83 or 13.5%, but flipped into discount to WTI by $1.94/b.
6 June 2009
Mediterranean market
Demand for arbitrage The market emerged on a weaker note amid more offers while buyers took to the sidelines.
barrels and gasoline Firming gasoline demand on outflows to the US supported the light grades. The Brent premium
processing supported to Urals averaged 53¢ lower to 90¢/b in the first week. Higher OSP for the rival grade supported
Urals crude sour crude in the Mediterranean while Russia was set to raise export tariffs. Perception of tighter
supply also lent support. In the second week, the average Urals discount to Brent was 20¢
narrower at 70¢/b. In the third week, Urals crude oil differentials rose towards a seven-year high
in the north, boosted by supply being arbitraged out of the region as well as strong fuel oil
margins. Urals traded in the third week at premium to sweet grades, hence the weekly average
narrowed significantly by 67¢ to 3¢/b. In the fourth week, Urals continued to firm to a seven-
year high to average 15¢/b over Brent. Urals' strength reflects strong demand from Asia, where
arbitrage economics are favourable, as well as reduced exports from Russia in June. On a
monthly basis, Urals averaged $7.8 or almost 16% higher in May to settle at $56.90/b, narrowing
the discount to Brent by a hefty 97¢ to 42¢/b.
Middle Eastern market

Firming fuel oil crack The market for Mideast crude emerged Graph 5: Dated Brent spread to Dubai, 2008-2009
spread and further on a quiet note while awaiting OSPs
US$/b US$/b
OPEC supply and price differentials ahead of the
8 8
adjustment supported new month’s allocations. However, a
the Eastern markets foreseen strengthening of the fuel oil 6 6
crack spread lent support for heavier 4 4
grades. Dubai flipped into premium to
2 2
Brent with the first weekly average at
51¢/b. The market continued to firm 0 0
with an upward trend in demand from -2 -2
China keeping the market supported at -4 -4
a time when refiners return from
6 Jun
16 Jan
5 Jun
13 Mar
1 Aug
29 Aug
26 Sep
4 Jul
13 Feb
8 May
10 Apr
21 Nov
19 Dec
24 Oct
seasonal maintenance. Seasonal fuel
demand and an improving fuel oil
crack spread lent support. Interest in
medium to heavy grades for July loading intensified amid ongoing cuts by some suppliers while
demand increased. The Dubai premium to Brent averaged the second week 35¢ wider at 86¢/b.
In the third week, Brent discount to Dubai averaged 21¢ narrower at 65¢/b amid the return of
some refineries from seasonal maintenance. Firming oil demand from China in April supported
the bullish market sentiment. In the fourth week, market sentiment came under pressure with
Taiwan’s CPC procuring rival Russian grade in its buy-tender. Brent flipped into premium to
Dubai at 74¢/b. In May, Dubai averaged $57.48/b, an increase of $7.38 or almost 13% and
representing a premium of 21¢/b to Brent compared to a 34¢/b discount in April.
June 2009 7
Table 1: OPEC Reference Basket and selected crudes, US$/b

Change Year-to-Date
Apr 08 May 08 May/Apr 2008 2009
OPEC Reference Basket 50.20 56.98 6.78 100.63 47.22
Arab Light 50.91 57.45 6.54 101.31 47.42
Basrah Light 51.18 56.47 5.29 98.27 46.39
Bonny Light 52.24 57.87 5.63 107.63 50.11
Es Sider 50.24 56.87 6.63 104.03 47.75
Girassol 49.72 57.36 7.64 102.39 48.20
Iran Heavy 50.10 56.02 5.92 98.16 46.14
Kuwait Export 50.16 57.93 7.77 97.32 46.71
Marine 50.82 58.09 7.27 100.08 48.80
Merey 43.73 52.95 9.22 - 42.49
Murban 52.33 59.58 7.25 104.68 50.16
Oriente 42.41 53.56 11.15 92.21 41.94
Saharan Blend 51.69 57.27 5.58 106.65 49.11
Other Crudes
Minas 54.11 61.69 7.58 106.33 51.02
Dubai 50.10 57.48 7.38 99.28 48.06
Isthmus 50.38 58.51 8.13 101.16 47.15
T.J. Light 49.32 57.34 8.02 98.12 46.00
Brent 50.44 57.27 6.83 104.62 48.22
W Texas Intermediate 49.82 59.21 9.39 106.50 47.61
Differentials
WTI/Brent -0.62 1.94 2.56 1.88 -0.61
Brent/Dubai 0.34 -0.21 -0.55 5.34 0.15
Note: As per the request of Venezuela and as approved by the 111th ECB, the Venezuelan crude BCF-17
has been replaced by Merey as of 2009. ORB has been revised as of this date.
Source: Platt's, Direct Communication and Secretariat's assessments.
8 June 2009
The Oil Futures Market

Economic indicators The market emerged in May on a Graph 6: Nymex WTI futures prices, 2009
flared bullishness on bullish note amid the weakening US US$/b US$/b
Wall Street pulling dollar exchange rate and firming Wall 80 80
along petroleum Street equity markets. The Federal 70 70
futures Reserve announcement eased
60 60
recessionary fears while manufacturing
indices declined at a slower pace, 50 50
lending support for hopes of an 40 40
economic recovery. However, a 30 30
2 Jun
8 Jun
2 Mar
6 Mar
12 Mar
18 Mar
24 Mar
30 Mar
potential flu epidemic implied the
4 May
8 May
3 Apr
9 Apr
16 Apr
22 Apr
28 Apr
14 May
20 May
27 May
likelihood of reduced consumption of
transportation fuels. Thus, fund sell-
1st FM 2nd FM 6th FM 12th FM
offs for profit-taking exacerbated some
bears in the marketplace. The Nymex FM = future month
WTI front month contract closed the
first weekly period at $53.84/b, for a gain of $3.92 or nearly 8%. Over the period, Nymex WTI
averaged $52.72/b for a gain of $2.70 or 5.4%. Nonetheless, non-commercial net positions on
the Nymex crude futures market flipped into a hefty net short of 11,300 lots in the first weekly
period, from a slight net long the week before. This was on the back of a rise in short positions at
a much faster rate than longs. Hence, open interest was 58,600 lots wider at 1,198,000 contracts.
With options included, open interest volume was 47,400 lots wider at 2,703,400 lots.
In the second weekly period, non-commercial net positions flipped once again into net long at
3,000 lots amid liquidation of short positions at a faster rate than the longs. Nonetheless, open
interest volume rose a healthy 48,800 lots to 1,246,800 contracts, the widest level since February.
Including options, open interest volume increased 54,200 lots to 2,757,500 contracts, the widest
level in five weeks. The Nymex WTI front month contract averaged $57.81/b, an increase of
$5.09 or 9.7% in the second weekly period. The weaker US dollar, the rise in equities, slowing
job losses and the results of the bank stress tests strengthened confidence for an economic
recovery. The lower-than-expected build in crude oil stocks the week before while gasoline saw
an unexpected draw improved market sentiment.
The market was more volatile in the third week amid weak retail sales prompting exits from the
equity markets which dragged down market sentiment. A rebound in the US dollar exchange rate
later in the day prompted fund managers to exit energy futures. The market ignored an
unexpected hefty draw in US crude oil stocks, while depleting gasoline inventories supported the
petroleum complex. However, investment in petroleum futures was spurred by the disruption in
Sunoco’s refinery in Marcus Hook, Pennsylvania, and unrest in West Africa. Nymex WTI closed
the week up 80¢ to $59.65/b. Over the weekly period, Nymex WTI averaged $58.33/b for a gain
of 52¢/b. Non-commercial net long positions inflated by 32,200 lots to 35,200 contracts amid a
hefty depletion in short positions while longs rose. In contrast, open interest volume was
152,800 lots narrower at 1,094,000 contracts. With options included, open interest volume
dropped significantly by 408,600 lots, the biggest weekly fall since September, to close at
2,348,900 lots.
In the fourth weekly period, the CFTC data showed non-commercial net long positions were
inflated by nearly 5,000 lots to 40,100 contracts, the highest net long position since February,
amid a rise in the longs at a faster rate than the shorts. Open interest volume was less than 2,000
lots wider at 1,095,900 contracts. With options included, open interest volume was 18,800 lots
wider at 2,367,700 lots. The Nymex WTI front month contract was $2.80/b or 4.7% firmer to
close at $62.45/b, averaging $61.80/b or $3.47 higher. News of rising demand from China flared
bullish sentiment while the US dollar exchange rate fell to a five-month low, inspiring investors
to flock to energy futures. Strong winds in the Gulf of Mexico prompted petroleum tankers to
cancel offloading at LOOP, triggering a covering of short positions. A report on US consumer
confidence showed the biggest monthly jump in six years, perceived as a sign for an improved
economic outlook implying support for petroleum demand.
June 2009 9
In May, non-commercials increased Graph 7: Non-commercial net long positions vs WTI, 2009
net long to almost 16,800 lots from '000Ct* US$/b
800 lots the month before, amid a rise 75 70
in long positions while shorts fell. Net 60 65
long positions were almost 36,000 lots 45 60
lower than last year’s level. Open 30 55
interest volume was nearly unchanged 15 50
at 1,158,650 lots, yet 240,000 lots 0 45
lower than the previous year. Including -15 40
5 May
7 Apr
12 May
19 May
26 May
14 Apr
21 Apr
28 Apr
2 Jun
3 Mar
10 Mar
17 Mar
24 Mar
31 Mar
options, open interest volume was
down by 188,500 lots to average at
2,544,400 contracts, a decline of Non-commercials WTS
393,400 lots from a year earlier. The NC = Non-commercials: f unds, investments and banks.
petroleum market was mostly volatile Ct = *Each contract is 1,000 barrels.
in May amid a weak US dollar and
recovery in equity markets. The market focus shifted to seasonal fuels as downstream outages
raised concerns about product supplies ahead of the summer driving season. The Nymex WTI
front month contract closed at $66.12/b for a gain of $15 or nearly 30% from the previous
month. On average, the front month contract rose $9.26 or over 18% in May to stand at
$59.21/b.
The Forward Structure

The return of some The contango spread on the forward Graph 8: Nymex WTI forward curve
refineries from structure nearly halved in May. The US$/b US$/b
maintenance 1st/2nd month spread fell $1.14 to 140 140
prompted higher 92¢/b, the narrowest monthly level
st th
since November. The 1 /6 , 1 /12 , st th 120 120
stock depletion amid
st th
slower imports and 1 /18 contango spread averaged 100 100
$4.02/b, $7.31/b, and $9.69/b 80 80
respectively, to narrow by $3.14,
$4.45, and $5.32/b accordingly. This 60 60
compares to 15¢, $1.09, $2.54 and 40 40
$3.61/b backwardation for the 1st/2nd, 1st FM 2nd FM 6th FM 12th FM 18th FM
1st/6th, 1st/12th, and 1st/18th months last
Apr 08 May 08 Apr 09 May 09
year. During the month, weekly US
crude oil stocks peaked at the highest FM = future month
level since August 1990 before
dropping by 8.7 mb by month-end. This was on the back of average recovery in refinery runs
while imports fell compared to a month earlier.
10 June 2009
Commodity Markets
Trends in selected commodity markets
Commodity prices The IMF commodity price index in May rose by 9.7% m-o-m compared to 4.1% in the
continue to rise in previous month, but remained down by more than 40% from a year ago. Commodity prices
May were supported by energy prices which increased 16% m-o-m. Non-fuel commodity prices
rose 5%, a slightly slower rate than the previous month.
The performance of commodity prices was supported by the favourable impact of new positive
macroeconomic data and an improvement in investor sentiment. Nevertheless, it is worth
noting that in some cases, notably industrial metals, the price increase is not based on
fundamental factors. Persistent weak demand in the OECD and a possible reduction of Chinese
metal imports in the coming months may cause prices to fall for this commodity group.
Table 2: Monthly changes in selected commodity prices, 2008-2009

% Change % Change
Mar/Feb Apr/Mar May/Apr May 09/May 08
Commodity 2.9 4.1 9.7 -43.9
Non-Energy -0.1 5.7 4.9 -25.9
Energy 5.1 3.0 13.1 -51.7
Crude 12.4 7.1 15.6 -52.7
US Natural Gas -11.8 -11.7 9.6 -66.0
Agriculture* -1.3 4.9 6.3
Food 1.0 4.8 5.8 -19.5
Corn 0.9 2.5 6.9 -25.9
Wheat 2.8 1.1 9.9 -21.9
Soybean Oil -1.1 13.4 7.4 -36.5
Soybeans -1.7 10.8 16.7 10.5
Industrial Metals 2.8 8.4 4.3 -38.2
Aluminium 0.0 7.0 2.3 -49.6
Copper 13.3 17.7 3.6 -45.0
Nickel -6.7 16.7 12.6 -50.3
Zinc 9.4 13.5 7.5 -31.5
Lead -1.5 5.7 4.0 -34.6
Gold* -2.0 -3.7 4.3 na
na Not available
Sources: IMF; Estimations based on data provided by the IMF.
* World Bank Index
The energy index Contrary to the previous month, the IMF energy commodity index (crude oil, natural gas and
growth reported coal) recorded a hefty increase in May of 13.1%, compared to 3% in April on the back of a
highest gains in May 15.6% increase in crude oil prices (average petroleum spot price) compared to 7.1% in the
previous month. At the same time, the Henry Hub (HH) natural gas price rose sharply by 9.6%
in May while coal prices saw further losses.
The HH gas price recovered by 9.6% in May, but remained down 66% from the same period
last year. Prices experienced a strong rally during the first half of May due to the combined
effect of greater power demand and higher-than-expected domestic production which
maintained storage injections under the three-digit level. Nevertheless, prices fell in the
following weeks due to weaker-than-expected US industrial production and rising inventories.
Non-energy commodity prices grew 5%, compared with 6% the previous month. Food
prices, especially grains, pushed prices up but industrial metals saw a deceleration in growth.
The industrial metal price index growth rate halved in May to 4% m-o-m compared to the
previous month. This commodity group was affected by expectations of lower imports from
China and persisting weak global demand, together with some supply response to prices. Some
markets are still in surplus and London Metal Exchange (LME) total inventories continued to
June 2009 11
increase in May by 249,111 tonnes to stand at 5,205,910 tonnes, which suggests that a
sustainable upward trend in prices will only materialize in the first half of 2010 when an
economic-led demand revival is anticipated for some industrial metals such as copper and zinc,
the two tightest markets. For other markets, such as aluminum and nickel, a recovery may take
longer due to considerable spare capacity.
Graph 9: Major commodity price indexes, 2006-2009

300 300
250 250
200 200
150 150
100 100
50 50
Nov 06
Sep 07
Nov 07
Sep 08
Nov 08
Mar 07
Jul 07
Mar 08
Jul 08
Mar 09
May 07
May 08
May 09
Jan 07
Jan 08
Jan 09
Total Non-Fuel Food Metals Fuel (energy) Crude oil
Commodity Price Index, 2005 = 100

Total - Includes both fuel and non-fuel.
Non-fuel - Includes food and beverages and industrial inputs.
Food - Includes cereal, vegetable oils, meat, seafood, sugar, bananas and oranges.
Metals - Includes copper, aluminum, iron ore, tin, nickel, zinc, lead and uranium.
Fuel (energy) - Includes crude oil (petroleum), natural gas and coal.
Crude oil - Is the simple average of three spot prices: Dated Brent, West Texas
Intermediate and Dubai Fateh.
Growth rates for Copper prices increased by only 3.6% in May, down from 17.7% m-o-m. A reduction of
industrial metal prices copper imports from China is expected in May due to better scrap availability with lower
slowed requirement of refined metals and weaker domestic prices due to high stocks, leading to a
less favorable LME-Shanghai arbitrage. Although Chinese imports are estimated to remain
high in May which may explain the mild decline in stocks at the LME, anemic demand from
Europe and the ongoing problems of the US automotive and construction sectors weighed on
prices and caused analysts to predict a recovery of the copper market only by the end of this
year or the beginning of 2010. Indeed, the copper surplus in 1Q09 is seen at 197,000 tonnes,
up 95,000 tonnes from the same period a year earlier.
Aluminium prices in May rose by only 2.3% m-o-m, comparing unfavourably with 7% growth
a month earlier. Following an enormous surge from March to April, aluminum imports from
China are expected to be lower in May owing to the huge increase in stocks since the
beginning of the year – Chinese aluminium imports jumped by 118.5% during January-April
2009, compared to the same period the previous year. This expansion was partly encouraged
by an attractive LME-China Shanghai arbitrage but record stocks have exerted downward
pressure on domestic prices. Global demand remains weak with US car sales plummeting by
35% y-o-y and British car sales falling 28.5% over January-April of 2009, compared to the
same period a year earlier. This explains the 362,862 tonnes climb in aluminum stocks at the
LME to now stand at 4,002,110 tonnes, the highest level since the start of this year.
Lead prices witnessed a rise of 4% in May m-o-m compared to 6% the previous month. Lead
markets benefited from some revival in demand from the lead-acid battery sector in China and
other regions according to the International Zinc Study Group. Nevertheless, this was not
enough to counterbalance rising inventories at the LME, which rose by 9,466 tonnes to 73,890
tonnes in May, the highest this year.
Zinc price growth halved in May to 7.5% compared to an April rise of 13.5% as a result of
flattening Chinese demand and persistent problems in the automotive and construction sectors
12 June 2009
elsewhere. Zinc imports from China seem to have declined in May which, together with rising
inventories, led to an ease of LME-China Shanghai arbitrage. Inventories at the LME
declined by 20,197 tonnes in May on a monthly basis, but this masks the fact that stocks rose
in the second half of the month.
Nickel prices rose by 12.6% in May compared to nearly 17% a month earlier. Nickel prices
performed better than other industrial metals due to the continuing high Chinese demand
reflected in high imports in May owing to the attractive LME-China domestic arbitrage.
Demand from stainless steel mills in China also supported nickel prices.
Outside China, nickel demand remains sluggish with demand from stainless steel orders
having dropped 46% in the six months to March 31st.
The World Bank’s agricultural price index rose by 6.3% m-o-m in May compared to 4.9%
in April fueled by grain prices and especially wheat on the back of weather-related concerns.
The IMF food price index rose 5.8% in May – up from 4.8% in April.
Gold prices climbed by 4.3% in May m-o-m after a 3.7% drop in the previous month amid
supportive low real rates and a weaker US dollar.
Investment flow into commodities

Open interest volume CFTC data for major commodity Graph 10: Total open interest volume
in major US markets in the US indicated a further '000Ct '000Ct
commodities witnessed 4% m-o-m increase in open interest 9000 9000
a further increase in volume (OIV) to stand at 6,036,000 8000 8000
May contracts in May, compared to a 2.6% 7000 7000
6000 6000
increase in the preceding month. 5000 5000
Investor sentiment was bullish due to 4000 4000
positive macroeconomic indicators and 3000 3000
optimism about the global economic 2000 2000
outlook. Corn, soybean oil and 1000 1000
0 0
precious metals saw major increases in
Mar 08
Mar 09
May 07
Jan 08
May 08
Jan 09
May 09
Sep 07
Nov 07
Sep 08
Nov 08
Jul 07
the total number of contracts. Jul 08
Total Agriculture Precious metals

WTI Copper Natural gas
Source: CFTC
Table 3: CFTC positions, '000 contracts

Net Positions Long Positions Short positions Open Interest
Change Change Change Change
May 09 May/Apr May 09 May/Apr May 09 May/Apr May 09 May/Apr
Crude Oil 17 16 177 -4 160 -20 1159 0
Natural Gas -132 -5 83 9 215 14 677 27
Agriculture 617 233 941 197 324 -36 3207 165
Corn 152 71 248 59 96 -12 866 43
Soybean Oil 23 15 51 19 29 4 217 8
Soybeans 118 36 143 30 25 -6 418 54
Sugar 174 41 205 35 31 -6 702 23
Precious Metals 190 30 244 31 54 1 510 29
Copper -18 0 19 0 37 0 107 2
Livestocks -18 -4 87 10 105 14 377 7
Total 655 270 1551 243 896 -27 6036 230
A stunning 18.6% m-o-m rise took place in long non-commercials in major US commodity
markets in May, up from 5% a month earlier. This combined with a 3% fall in shorts resulted in the
net non-commercials as a percentage of open interest volume jumping from 6.6% in April to 10.9%
in May, a ten month high. Likewise, net length in US commodity futures markets climbed to
655,000 contracts in May to the highest level since August 2008.
June 2009 13
Agriculture OIV rose 5%

Graph 11: CFTC net length by commodity group
m-o-m in May to 3,207,000 contracts, '000Ct
'000Ct
down from 6% a month earlier. Non- 1400 1400
commercial longs rallied by 26.4% in 1200 1200
May, while shorts slumped by 10.1%. 1000 1000
Thus, net length as a percentage of 800 800
OIV increased from 13% in April to 600 600
19.2% in May. Consistent with the 400 400
price bullishness, non-commercials 200 200
favoured soybean oil, resulting in a 0 0
59.9% m-o-m rise in non- -200 -200
Mar 08
Mar 09
Jan 08
Jan 09
May 07
May 08
May 09
Sep 07
Nov 07
Sep 08
Nov 08
Jul 07
Jul 08
commercial longs. As a result, the
net non-commercials as a percentage
of open interest climbed from 3.5% to Total Agriculture Precious metals
WTI Copper Natural gas
10%. Corn and wheat also saw a
Source: CFTC
similar trend.
Precious metals benefited the most from investors’ interest. Following a 6% decline in the OIV
last month, metals gained 6% to stand at 510,000 contracts. A considerable rebound of 14.5% in
non-commercial long positions together with a modest increase of 1.4% in shorts translated to
an increase in net length as a percentage of open interest volume from 33% in April to 37.2% in
May (see Graphs 12 and 13).
Nymex natural gas futures open interest volume experience a 5% rise to

677,000 contracts in May, compared to a decline of 1% in April. Non-commercial short
positions increased more than longs, so net length as a percentage of open interest improved
slightly in April. The same factors as in the previous month continue to reinforce bearish
sentiment in the market, namely a lack of demand, declining prices and milder temperatures over
the coming months.
Copper open interest volume increased

Graph 12: CFTC net length as % of open interest
by only 2% in May, substantially lower
than the 16% growth in April, reflecting 60 60
an important deceleration in prices. 40 40

After a huge 44% increase over the past
month, non-commercial longs rose by 20 20
less than 1% in May, with short
0 0
positions rising at only 1% in May from
11% in the previous month. Net length -20 -20
as a percentage of open interest was
-40 -40
17% in May, compared to 17.5% a
Mar 08
Mar 09
Jan 08
Jan 09
May 07
May 08
May 09
Sep 07
Nov 07
Sep 08
Nov 08
Jul 07
Jul 08
month earlier.
Agriculture Precious metals WTI
Except for gold, dollar investment
Copper Natural gas
inflows into most commodities Source: CFTC
experienced a rally in May. Although
the total amount accruing to commodities rose by 8% in May compared to 5.8% in April, most
commodity groups, specially agriculture and crude oil are estimated to have received higher
invesment inflows in May compared to the previous month. The growth of dollar investment
inflow in May more than doubled in agriculture and livestock, while investment in crude oil
quadrupled to stand at 16% compared to 4% a month earlier. By contrast, gold saw a huge 65%
decline in investment inflows in May. Nevertheless, total investment inflows into commodities is
estimated to have fallen 7% in December, while crude oil inflows have fallen 19.4% since
December.
14 June 2009
Graph 13: Investments in two principal commodity instruments (S&P GSCI and DJ-AIG)
$bn $bn
350 350
300 300
250 250
200 200
150 150
100 100
50 50
0 0
1Q007 2Q007 3Q007 4Q007 1Q008 2Q008 3Q008 4Q008 31 Mar 28 Apr 26 May
Gold Industrial Metals Energy Crude Oil Livestock Agricultural
Despite the increase in risk appetite for commodities, a comparison of investment flow with prices
does not suggest a cause-and-effect relationship. As noted in the previous report, the remarkable
inflows into commodity-linked ETPs in 1Q09 slowed strongly in April. With regards to crude oil,
Barclays estimates that inflows into oil ETPs rose during December-February to a record $2.4bn
over the three month period, despite crude prices falling to their lowest levels. In contrast, crude oil
has since seen a net outflow of over $2.5bn parallel with a price increase of nearly 50%. This may
suggest that investment flows and ETPs are not the determining factor behind the upward trend in
crude oil prices, but instead a change in sentiment associated with the supply side and a more
optimistic view on the global economic crisis.
Table 4a: US commodity exchange traded products (ETP) - monthly flows

Long ETP Flows Short EFT Flows
May 09 Apr 09 Mar 09 May 09 Apr 09 Mar 09
Base 64 70 84 0 0 0
Precious 627 -583 3070 5 18 34
Agriculture 520 68 489 5 0 0
Energy -352 916 -1543 -16 76 -58
Broad-based 642 359 557 -8 0 9
Total 1501 830 2657 -14 94 -15
Table 4b: European commodity exchange traded products (ETP) - weekly flows, 2009
Long ETP Flows Short ETP Flows
27 May 29 Apr 25 Mar 27 May 29 Apr 25 Mar
Base 10.9 1.1 9.2 3.2 1.3 0.5
Precious -40.0 32.9 154.1 0.4 0.0 0.4
Agriculture 23.7 20.1 7.8 2.0 0.3 1.8
Energy -15.1 69.6 58.0 8.1 10.8 3.4
Broad-based 11.0 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Total -9.4 124.7 229.2 13.7 12.5 6.0
Source: Barclays.
June 2009 15
Monthly Oil Market Report_____________________________________________________________________
Highlights of the World Economy

Economic growth rates 2008-2009, %
World OECD USA Japan Euro-zone China India
2008 3.1 0.9 1.1 -0.7 0.9 9.0 6.7
2009 -1.3 -3.8 -2.8 -6.4 -4.2 7.0 5.7
Industrialised countries
United States of America
The US economic The economic situation in the United States has improved in some areas but some worrying
situation expected to signs have emerged which could dampen recent positive developments.
improve by the
second half of 2009 Sentiment has improved across the board. Confidence indicators for manufacturers, service
providers as well as consumers are rising The ISM for manufacturing continued to increase this
month from a level of 40.1 to 42.8 and the ISM for the non-manufacturing sector was also rising
from a level of 43.7 to 44. While the increase in both numbers points to an improving economy,
these improvements seem to be only gradual and levels are still indicating an economy in
contraction, i.e. in decline as the numbers are still below 50.
Graph 14a: ISM Manufacturing Index Graph 14b: ISM Non-Manufacturing Index
60 60 60 60
50 50 50 50
40 40 40 40
30 30 30 30
20 20 20 20
10 10 10 10
0 0 0 0
Mar 08
Jul 08
Mar 09
May 08
May 09
Jan 09
Sep 08
Nov 08
Sep 08
Nov 08
Mar 08
Jul 08
Mar 09
May 08
May 09
Jan 09
Source: Institute for Supply Management
The Conference Board consumer sentiment also improved from a level of 39.2 to 54.7. While
this figure shows a large increase, it is still at a level registered in the recession at the beginning
of the 1990s.
A similar trend can be seen in the labour market. Nonfarm payrolls fell by 345,000 in May.
While this number was much lower than the one registered in April of 504,000, the
unemployment rate climbed further to 9.4% from 8.9% in April and it remains to be seen if the
rate at which jobs are being shed will slow down in the coming months.
Factory orders in the US moved up by 0.7% in April m-o-m after a decline of 0.9% in March,
but the y-o-y comparison reveals a drop of almost 24%. Moreover, industrial production
contraction slowed down, decreasing by 0.6% m-o-m in April compared to a drop of
1.5% m-o-m in the previous month.
Equity markets reacted positively to the somewhat less negative economic data, with the
underlying expectation that more positive developments will materialise in the second half of the
year. The Standard and Poor’s 500 has increased by more than 6% since mid-May. In the wake
of the challenges that could be faced in the second half of 2009, it remains to be seen if this
current market valuation is justified and if these levels can be maintained or even improved or a
correction is due.
Despite the positive sentiment there are still factors that are leaning more towards the negative.
The housing market is improving only gradually. Pending home sales increased, but prices are
still declining and mortgage applications are not rising significantly due to the fact that the mid-
and long-term interest rates have gone up substantially. In the week ending 29 May, the 30-year
16 June 2009
_____________________________________________________________________Monthly Oil Market Report
mortgage rates have risen by 44 basis-points (bp) according to the Mortgage Bankers'
Association (MBA). The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application
volumes, was 658.7, a decrease of 16.2% on a seasonally adjusted basis from 786.0 a week
earlier. Existing home sales improved by 2.9% m-o-m, from 4.55m to 4.68m in April, while the
supply of existing homes for sale increased to 10.2 months from 9.6 months in March. Home
prices continued to fall by 18.7% y-o-y in March, matching the February figure to show no
improvement, according to the S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index.
Another important uncertainty affecting US economic development is that inflation has hit a new
low, which is being observed in all developing countries posing a serious threat to recovery. The
consumer price index in April was flat on a m-o-m basis – a slight improvement from the 0.1%
decline in March – while on a y-o-y basis it fell 0.6%. This follows a 0.4% y-o-y drop in March.
Thus the threat of deflation remains. Separately, retail sales rose 0.5% in May following a 0.2%
drop in April. The increase was led by gasoline prices which had increased in May.
Treasury bond rates have moved up in the course of the last four weeks reflecting uncertainty
about the economic development. The yield on the 10-year note has risen 135 bp since the
Federal Reserve Board (Fed) announced in March that it is starting a Treasury buying
programme. In light of the vast amount of deficit spending of the US government, the $300 bn
the Fed is planning to buy back appears insufficient and market participants are only willing to
pick up the additional supply at a higher yield. Moreover, other factors may be affecting yields
such as the increased fear of inflation further down the road, as well as the rise in commodity
prices. The observed flight from bonds to equities is pushing bond prices down and yields up.
However, the supply of Treasury bonds in the coming months could continue to support the
relatively steep yield-curve, even excluding these additional factors.
A bottoming-out of the US economy is expected in the second half of the year, but any growth
may be modest. Despite the better second reading of the 1Q09 GDP of -5.7% seasonally adjusted
annualized rate (saar) compared to -6.1% ,given the ongoing uncertainties surrounding the US
economy, GDP growth forecast for 2009 remained unchanged at -2.8%.
Japan
The Japanese The Japanese economy seems to be recovering from a very challenging situation over the last
economy is showing year and particularly the last two quarters. GDP growth in 1Q09 was reported at -14.2% q-o-q
some signs of saar. This came after a decline of -14.4% q-o-q saar in the fourth quarter. However, it appears
stabilization as that the latest figures could have marked the bottoming-out of the economy. The Japanese
factory output factory output has jumped by 5.2% in April from March, when it gained 1.6% m-o-m. The report
jumped 5.2% in April of the Trade Ministry showed that companies are planning to increase output in May and June ,
although the current production level is still only two thirds that of last year, according to the
Bank of Japan (BoJ).
Assisting the economy is a 25 trn Yen government stimulus package, around 5% of GDP.
Despite the recent positive developments, the BoJ is still cautious about the Japanese economy
pointing to the danger of a second dip later in the year if the global recovery fails to materializes,
thus providing little support for a rebound in exports.
The positive development in output contrasts with the rise in the unemployment rate, which rose
to 5% in April, the highest level since November 2003, when it posted 5.1%, according to the
Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications. This higher unemployment figure is in line
with the 14-month trend of declining household spending in April, when it fell by 1.3% y-o-y.
The development of higher unemployment and lower retail sales numbers puts continued
downward pressure on prices. The CPI declined in April for a second time by 0.1%, after already
having fallen in March by the same amount. Wages also declined by -2.5% y-o-y continuing an
11-month streak, but have improved from the March decline of 3.7%, a six-year low. The BoJ
expects a price decline of 1.5% for the current fiscal year, while the government expects a CPI
decline of 1.3%.
On the positive side, exports have improved for the second consecutive month. However, on a
y-o-y basis exports continue to decline, albeit at a slower pace. Exports fell 39.1% y-o-y in April
compared to 45.5% a month earlier and almost 50% from the month before. Imports fell 35.8%
from a year earlier, slightly lower than 36.7% y-o-y in the previous month. Exports to the US
June 2009 17
dropped 46.3% y-o-y and to Europe 45.4% but they were both better than a month earlier.
Exports to China, now the most important trade partner of Japan, improved in May, declining
25.8% y-o-y compared to a decline of 31.5% the previous month, reflecting the improvement in
the Chinese economy. Supported by this positive trend in exports, the second quarter GDP
growth return to positive territory.
Bankruptcies declined in May for the first time in a year by 6.7% from the same month last year
and the total debt involved fell 1.8% y-o-y, according to Tokyo Shoko Research.
The BoJ upgraded its economic forecast for the first time in three years, predicting a bottom had
been reached. However, the recovery could possibly be W-shaped with potential for a further
downturn later in the year. According to a government survey the economic crisis is easing due
to the stimulus package.
While the forecast remains unchanged for a -6.4% rate of decline in GDP growth for the full year
of 2009, a mild recovery in the Japanese economy is expected by the second quarter.
Euro-zone
The Euro-zone is still Euro-zone GDP declined in the first quarter of 2009 by a higher-than-expected 2.5% q-o-q.
declining and A minor recovery in the Euro-zone is expected only in 2010 as the bleak picture for the economy
expected to stage a in 2009 remains unchanged. The European Central Bank (ECB) revised down its 2009 forecast
minor recovery only to a range of -4.1% to -5.1% in 2009. France exhibited the best performance of the bigger
in 2010 economies in the first quarter, showing a rate of GDP decline of 1.2% q-o-q. The Spanish
economy contracted 1.9% q-o-q and Italy’s GDP fell 2.4% q-o-q.
Germany remains the worst performing economy in the Euro-zone. German GDP contracted by
3.8% q-o-q in the first quarter, for the fourth consecutive quarter of declines. The German
manufacturing association reported factory orders had declined 58% y-o-y in April- of which
exports orders fell 60% y-o-y. The Bundesbank recently issued a GDP growth forecast of -6.0%
for 2009. The Bank is not expecting the economy to grow in 2010 and sees a recovery only “in
the course” of 2010, in line with the view of the ECB.
The ECB held its key interest rate constant at 1% in its most recent meeting, indicating that
expanding the asset purchase programme in the near term is unlikely. The scheme is so far
limited to buying 60bn Euros of covered bonds, issued either by banks or backed by public
sector loans or mortgages. Thus, the ECB reserves room to maneuver in case deflation becomes
a severe threat for the economy. Euro-zone consumer price inflation fell to 0% in May,
compared to 0.6% in April. The May inflation number was the lowest since records began in
1991. The ECB recently warned that inflation is expected to remain negative for the coming
months, before turning positive by the end of 2009, still far below the inflation goal of around
2%. Industrial producer prices declined as well by 1% in April.
Moreover, Euro-zone unemployment hit a 10-year high of 9.2% and, as in the previous months,
Spain was the country with the highest rate reaching 18% for total unemployment and 36.2%. for
youth unemployment, compared to 18.5% for the whole Euro-zone. The European Commission
is now expected to release new guidelines on measures to address this important problem.
On the positive side, the sentiment in the Euro-zone is continuing to improve on the consumer as
well as the producer side. Expectations of a bottom being near are the basis for confidence in
recovery, despite the more negative picture portrayed by the real data. The Euro-zone confidence
index increased for the second consecutive month, from 67.2 to 69.3 in May, but the pace of the
improvement was slower than in the previous month and most of the improvement was due to a
revival in confidence in the retail sector. The composite Markit PMI index in the Euro-zone
improved from 41.1 in April to 43.9 in May, still pointing to a contracting economy as it remains
below 50. In Germany the number improved from 40.1 to 44.4.
Despite, or maybe because of the falling prices, the retail sales number was up for the Euro-zone
in April by 0.2% m-o-m, compared to a decline of -0.1% m-o-m in March, showing the first
positive number since November 2008.
18 June 2009
_____________________________________________________________________Monthly Oil Market Report
Due to the continuing uncertainties in the Euro-zone economy, we have kept our GDP growth
forecast unchanged at -4.2% for 2009.
Former Soviet Union

Inflation in Russia Russia is facing its biggest economic test since 1998, when oil prices dropped below $10/b and
slowed to 6.8% from the government defaulted on $40 billion of debt. The Ministry of Economic Development and
7.7% a year earlier; Trade in Russia predicts that national output slumped an annual 9.5% in the first quarter and may
the Central Bank cut fall as much as 8% this year after 10 years of expansion averaging almost 7%. Russia’s central
the refinancing rate bank cut the main interest rates for the third time in six weeks. The central bank cut the
by 50 basis points refinancing rate to 11.5% from 12% and lowered its repurchase rate charged on central bank
loans to 10.5% from 11%. The bank said in April that it would start a “trend toward further cuts”
as inflation eases and after the recession deepened in the first quarter. The rate cuts in April and
May were the first since the bank increased the cost of money to arrest the ruble’s 30% drop
since August and to prevent speculation on the currency’s decline. Separately, inflation is seen to
fall below the government’s 13% target. In the year through end-May inflation slowed to 6.8%
from 7.7% a year earlier, according to the Moscow-based Federal Statistics Service. It is
estimated that Russia could cut interest rates further by another 100 basis points – on top of the
150 basis points of cuts administered in the last six weeks – should 2009 inflation stay below
10%. The recent recovery in oil prices to almost $70/b, if sustained, would underpin the first
signs of recovery in Russia’s economy. This has driven the recent improvements in the ruble and
the stock markets.
The Ukraine economy is one of the worst-suffering in Europe. Ukraine is relying on a

$16.4 billion emergency loan from the IMF to help avoid a complete meltdown. So far the
country has received less than half of those funds as the government is struggling to meet strict
stabilization requirements. According to the parliamentary auditors, preliminary output and sales
data signal that Ukraine's economy declined by more than 20% y-o-y in the first quarter. Output
has at least stabilized, albeit at a very low level, with a recovery barely in sight. Financial
markets have also stabilized and the restructuring of the banking sector is making some progress.
Developing Countries
Credit growth The People's Bank of China (PBoC) in a recent report estimated that the economy has seen signs
slowing as bank of improvement but still faces considerable downward pressure. After a period of strong growth,
lending fell sharply in credit appears to be moderating as new bank lending fell to Rmb592 bn in April 2009 compared
April; industrial to the monthly average of Rmb1.5 trn for the first quarter of 2009. The PBoC is concerned that
output continued to lending has run out of control. The government called the commercial banks to “pay close
grow as a result of attention to mounting risk from the recent lending surge and understand that dealing with the
easing monetary impact of the global financial crisis is a long-term task”.
policy despite sluggish
exports Fuelled by the extraordinary rise in credit in the first four months of 2009, China's urban fixed-
asset investment (FAI) growth has accelerated sharply. In January-April, FAI rose by
30.5% y-o-y, the fastest growth rate since 2004. Helped by the surge in investment, industrial
output has continued to grow, despite the troubles of the export-oriented manufacturing sector.
In real terms, industrial output increased by 7.3% y-o-y in April. Consumer finance is another
focus of government efforts to boost credit growth. In mid-April it announced draft regulations
that will permit domestic and foreign financial institutions to set up consumer finance firms to
provide personal loans to purchase consumer durables or to fund expenses such as travel and
education. However, these companies will not be able to finance housing or car loans, and loan
quotas will only run up to five times an applicant’s monthly salary. The initial cities identified
for the pilot programme are Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin and Chengdu. According to China's
Ministry of Commerce, inflows of foreign direct investment (FDI) have been declining on a
y-o-y basis since October 2008. The fall in FDI inflows comes after several years of strong
growth. Inflows in January-April 2009 fell by 21% to US$27.7 bn, compared with US$35 bn in
the same period a year earlier.
The Indian government raised its growth forecast for the economy to 6% in the 2009/10 fiscal
year and to 7% in 20010/11, from its previous forecasts of 5.5 % and 6.5 %, respectively. It does
not expect the rebound in private demand to be strong and, given that inflation is currently at
historically low levels, the central bank might cut rates by 25 basis points before keeping them at
a rather low level during the rest of 2009. The drop in wholesale prices - the country's main
gauge of inflation trends – is not deemed to mean outright deflation, where declining prices hurt
consumer and business spending, leading to further price falls. Rather, it reflects the slide in
June 2009 19
energy prices late last year. It is predicted that inflationary pressures will remain in the pipeline.
While inflation is expected to remain benign in the near term, the rebound in energy prices so far
this year and a possible pickup in India's economy could mean the Reserve Bank of India's
aggressive series of rate cuts may be over.
OPEC Member Countries

Venezuelan economy The Central Bank of Venezuela said the economy grew at the slowest pace since 2003 in the first
slows down in 1Q09, quarter of 2009 as factory output contracted and export revenue declined on a plunge in oil
but capital prices. The economy grew 0.3 % in 1Q09 from a year earlier. The government cut the 2009
investments remain federal budget by 6.7 %, raised the sales tax and announced plans to sell 34 billion bolivars
strong ($15.8 bn) in domestic bonds this year to cover a budget deficit. Venezuela depends on oil
exports to finance half the budget, and crude prices have plunged 59 % since touching a record
in July. The central bank highlighted an area where growth was strong which is capital
investment. “The economy’s performance in the first quarter of the year was determined,
principally, by the significant increase of 11.6 % in gross capital investment,”
Kuwait central bank Inflation in Kuwait averaged 10.6% in 2008, almost double the previous year’s average of 5.5%.
cuts rates as inflation However, inflation eased to 6.8 % in January, as the cost of food and housing grew at a weaker
eases pace, allowing Kuwait’s Central Bank to reduce its benchmark interest rate by half a percentage
point to 3%, the fifth cut since October 2008. Kuwait last month enacted an economic “stability
bill” to bolster financial institutions that may cost as much as 1.5bn dinars ($5.2 bn), according
to government estimates. Under the package, the government will guarantee as much as 4 bn
dinars in new loans provided by local banks this year and next.
Oil prices, the US dollar and inflation

The US dollar fell In May, the dollar depreciated against all major counterparts, losing 3.5% against the euro, 4.6%
against all major against the pound sterling, 3.5% against the Swiss franc and 2.7% against the Japanese yen.
currencies in May Against the modified Geneva I + US dollar basket, the dollar fell more than 2.5% last month
compared to a decline of 0.8% in April. Against the euro, the dollar averaged $1.3646/€ in May
compared to $1.3188/€ in April.
The weakness of the dollar might be due to an increased risk-appetite outside the US-dollar
region, pushing investors out into higher yielding currencies. This trend could be supported by
the fact that the Fed moved back from the possibility to increase its key interest rate later in the
year. The strength of the euro particularly seems to be mainly attributable to the higher yields in
the Euro-zone and the more conservative approach to increasing the money supply through
quantitative easing.
In May, the OPEC Reference Basket rose $6.78/b or 13.5% to $56.98/b from $50.20/b in April.
In real terms (base June 2001=100), after accounting for inflation and currency fluctuations, the
Basket price increased by $3.73/b or 10.9% to $37.90/b from $34.17/b. The dollar declined by
2.5%, as measured against the import-weighted modified Geneva I+US dollar basket, while
inflation remained almost flat at a decline of 0.1%.*
*
The ‘modified Geneva I+US$ basket’ includes the euro, the Japanese yen, the US dollar, the pound sterling and the Swiss franc, weighted according to the
merchandise imports of OPEC Member Countries from the countries in the basket.
20 June 2009
_________________________________________________________________Monthly Oil Market Report
World Oil Demand

World oil demand in 2008
World oil demand to World oil demand is estimated to have fallen by 0.4 mb/d in 2008 following a
decline 0.4 mb/d in downward revision of 0.1 mb/d from the previous assessment. The bulk of the revision
2008 to average occurred in the fourth quarter. OECD is expected to fall by 1.7 mb/d, while non-OECD
85.4 mb/d should see growth of 1.3 mb/d.
Table 5: World oil demand forecast for 2008, mb/d

Change 2008/07
2007 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 2008 Volume %
North America 25.53 24.84 24.53 23.73 23.95 24.26 -1.27 -4.98
Western Europe 15.30 15.22 14.89 15.37 15.21 15.17 -0.12 -0.81
OECD Pacific 8.35 8.87 7.82 7.50 7.86 8.01 -0.34 -4.05
Total OECD 49.17 48.92 47.24 46.59 47.02 47.43 -1.73 -3.53
Other Asia 9.15 9.33 9.49 9.12 9.22 9.29 0.14 1.57
Latin America 5.54 5.54 5.73 5.91 5.76 5.74 0.20 3.62
Middle East 6.46 6.75 6.85 7.07 6.84 6.88 0.41 6.38
Africa 3.04 3.20 3.12 3.10 3.21 3.16 0.12 3.84
Total DCs 24.19 24.82 25.19 25.20 25.03 25.06 0.87 3.61
FSU 4.04 4.12 3.74 4.22 4.38 4.12 0.07 1.82
Other Europe 0.87 0.77 0.83 0.79 0.91 0.83 -0.04 -5.06
China 7.59 7.97 8.17 8.10 7.65 7.97 0.39 5.09
Total "Other Regions" 12.50 12.87 12.74 13.12 12.94 12.92 0.42 3.33
Total world 85.86 86.61 85.17 84.91 84.99 85.41 -0.45 -0.52
Previous estimate 85.90 86.83 85.27 85.05 85.24 85.59 -0.30 -0.35
Revision -0.04 -0.22 -0.11 -0.15 -0.25 -0.18 -0.14 -0.16
Totals may not add due to independent rounding.
Table 6: First and second quarter world oil demand comparison for 2008, mb/d
Change 2008/07 Change 2008/07
1Q07 1Q08 Volume % 2Q07 2Q08 Volume %
North America 25.68 24.84 -0.84 -3.27 25.40 24.53 -0.88 -3.45
Western Europe 15.19 15.22 0.03 0.20 14.93 14.89 -0.03 -0.21
OECD Pacific 8.92 8.87 -0.04 -0.49 7.87 7.82 -0.05 -0.66
Total OECD 49.78 48.92 -0.85 -1.71 48.20 47.24 -0.96 -1.99
Other Asia 8.99 9.33 0.34 3.77 9.27 9.49 0.22 2.34
Latin America 5.33 5.54 0.21 3.99 5.50 5.73 0.23 4.10
Middle East 6.42 6.75 0.33 5.14 6.43 6.85 0.42 6.57
Africa 3.07 3.20 0.14 4.44 3.00 3.12 0.12 4.01
Total DCs 23.80 24.82 1.02 4.27 24.21 25.19 0.99 4.07
FSU 4.05 4.12 0.07 1.84 3.59 3.74 0.15 4.25
Other Europe 0.89 0.77 -0.11 -12.91 0.86 0.83 -0.03 -3.35
China 7.48 7.97 0.50 6.63 7.77 8.17 0.40 5.14
Total world 85.99 86.61 0.62 0.72 84.62 85.17 0.55 0.65
June 2009 21
Monthly Oil Market Report_________________________________________________________________
Table 7: Third and fourth quarter world oil demand comparison for 2008, mb/d
North America 25.55 23.73 -1.82 -7.12 25.49 23.95 -1.54 -6.04
Western Europe 15.42 15.37 -0.05 -0.36 15.65 15.21 -0.44 -2.79
OECD Pacific 7.89 7.50 -0.39 -4.95 8.72 7.86 -0.86 -9.84
Total OECD 48.85 46.59 -2.26 -4.63 49.85 47.02 -2.83 -5.68
Other Asia 8.97 9.12 0.15 1.68 9.35 9.22 -0.13 -1.35
Latin America 5.68 5.91 0.24 4.16 5.63 5.76 0.13 2.28
Middle East 6.61 7.07 0.46 6.95 6.40 6.84 0.44 6.83
Africa 3.00 3.10 0.10 3.35 3.10 3.21 0.11 3.57
Total DCs 24.26 25.20 0.95 3.90 24.48 25.03 0.55 2.24
FSU 4.12 4.22 0.10 2.49 4.41 4.38 -0.03 -0.75
Other Europe 0.84 0.79 -0.05 -5.80 0.90 0.91 0.01 1.62
China 7.72 8.10 0.38 4.94 7.38 7.65 0.27 3.66
Total world 85.79 84.91 -0.88 -1.03 87.03 84.99 -2.03 -2.34
World oil demand in 2009

World oil demand in As the world economy stabilizes, the world oil demand appears to be settling down. Industrial
2009 forecast to production activities are steadying and in some parts of the world have even improved slightly.
decline by 1.6 mb/d This should stop the bleeding in oil demand. There are no significant downward revisions to our
y-o-y to average previous oil demand forecasts. Still, US oil demand is the wild card and any further downward
83.8 mb/d adjustment in the country’s oil demand would have an impact on total world oil demand.
Table 8: World oil demand forecast for 2009, mb/d

Change 2009/08
2008 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 2009 Volume %
North America 24.26 23.62 23.22 22.97 23.62 23.35 -0.90 -3.72
Western Europe 15.17 14.84 14.40 14.90 14.90 14.76 -0.41 -2.72
OECD Pacific 8.01 8.06 7.32 7.07 7.71 7.54 -0.47 -5.87
Total OECD 47.43 46.51 44.93 44.94 46.23 45.65 -1.79 -3.76
Other Asia 9.29 9.27 9.42 9.20 9.28 9.29 0.00 0.04
Latin America 5.74 5.55 5.72 5.94 5.80 5.75 0.02 0.31
Middle East 6.88 6.94 7.05 7.28 7.03 7.07 0.20 2.87
Africa 3.16 3.24 3.15 3.12 3.25 3.19 0.03 0.97
Total DCs 25.06 25.00 25.34 25.54 25.36 25.31 0.25 1.00
FSU 4.12 3.92 3.70 4.19 4.35 4.04 -0.07 -1.82
Other Europe 0.83 0.73 0.81 0.77 0.89 0.80 -0.03 -3.34
China 7.97 7.68 8.24 8.26 7.79 7.99 0.02 0.24
Total "Other Regions" 12.92 12.34 12.75 13.21 13.03 12.83 -0.08 -0.64
Total world 85.41 83.84 83.02 83.69 84.62 83.80 -1.62 -1.89
Previous estimate 85.59 84.47 83.30 83.65 84.70 84.03 -1.57 -1.83
Revision -0.18 -0.62 -0.28 0.04 -0.07 -0.23 -0.05 -0.06
Although the rise in industrial production in April is a little less than in March, Chinese oil
demand is growing in April for the first time since the start of the year. Other Asia’s oil demand
was not as bad in April as has been so far this year, because of strong demand growth from India.
Furthermore, Latin America’s oil demand stopped its decline because of the strong consumption
in Brazil.
22 June 2009
Table 9: First and second quarter world oil demand comparison for 2009, mb/d
North America 24.84 23.62 -1.22 -4.91 24.53 23.22 -1.31 -5.34
Western Europe 15.22 14.84 -0.38 -2.50 14.89 14.40 -0.49 -3.30
OECD Pacific 8.87 8.06 -0.81 -9.18 7.82 7.32 -0.51 -6.46
Total OECD 48.92 46.51 -2.41 -4.94 47.24 44.93 -2.31 -4.88
Other Asia 9.33 9.27 -0.06 -0.60 9.49 9.42 -0.06 -0.69
Latin America 5.54 5.55 0.01 0.19 5.73 5.72 -0.01 -0.19
Middle East 6.75 6.94 0.19 2.80 6.85 7.05 0.20 2.92
Africa 3.20 3.24 0.04 1.11 3.12 3.15 0.02 0.77
Total DCs 24.82 25.00 0.18 0.72 25.19 25.34 0.15 0.59
FSU 4.12 3.92 -0.20 -4.84 3.74 3.70 -0.04 -0.99
Other Europe 0.77 0.73 -0.04 -5.14 0.83 0.81 -0.02 -2.89
China 7.97 7.68 -0.29 -3.68 8.17 8.24 0.07 0.86
Total "Other Regions" 12.87 12.34 -0.53 -4.14 12.74 12.75 0.01 0.07
Total world 86.61 83.84 -2.77 -3.20 85.17 83.02 -2.15 -2.52
World oil demand growth reached a record low at -2.8 mb/d in the first quarter y-o-y. However,
the second quarter’s oil demand is estimated to decline by 2.1 mb/d y-o-y world-wide. The
picture in the third quarter is estimated to be enhanced by at least 1.0 mb/d to show a decline of
1.2 mb/d y-o-y.
Table 10: Third and fourth quarter world oil demand comparison for 2009, mb/d
North America 23.73 22.97 -0.76 -3.19 23.95 23.62 -0.33 -1.38
Western Europe 15.37 14.90 -0.47 -3.04 15.21 14.90 -0.32 -2.07
OECD Pacific 7.50 7.07 -0.43 -5.68 7.86 7.71 -0.14 -1.83
Total OECD 46.59 44.94 -1.65 -3.54 47.02 46.23 -0.79 -1.68
Other Asia 9.12 9.20 0.07 0.81 9.22 9.28 0.06 0.66
Latin America 5.91 5.94 0.03 0.51 5.76 5.80 0.04 0.69
Middle East 7.07 7.28 0.21 2.97 6.84 7.03 0.19 2.78
Africa 3.10 3.12 0.02 0.71 3.21 3.25 0.04 1.28
Total DCs 25.20 25.54 0.34 1.33 25.03 25.36 0.33 1.33
FSU 4.22 4.19 -0.04 -0.83 4.38 4.35 -0.03 -0.68
Other Europe 0.79 0.77 -0.03 -3.41 0.91 0.89 -0.02 -2.19
China 8.10 8.26 0.15 1.91 7.65 7.79 0.14 1.83
Total world 84.91 83.69 -1.22 -1.44 84.99 84.62 -0.37 -0.43
Given the horrendous decline in OECD oil demand, world oil demand in 2009 is forecast to
decline by 1.6 mb/d y-o-y to average 83.8 mb/d, broadly unchanged from our last report.
Alternative fuel
China is pushing alternative fuel vehicles within its major cities via heavy subsidies. Efforts are focused on public
transportation vehicles and certain private vehicles. The amount of subsidies provided varies according to sector
and fuel. This move is not anticipated to place a major dent on the country’s fossil fuel demand over the medium
term. On another front, China inaugurated its Laxiwa hydropower station with a production capacity of
4.2 gigawatts. The second phase is expected to come onstream next year, increasing capacity by 10 gigawatts.
China is pushing use of renewables country-wide, which is helping to slightly reduce the usage of other energy
sources.
June 2009 23
OECD – North America

North America oil The fall in US industrial production is taking a major toll on the country’s oil usage. However,
demand was revised some indicators imply that the economic contraction is reaching bottom. Furthermore, the US
down by 0.1 mb/d to driving season is here and this will lift the country’s oil demand to a certain degree. Early data
show a decline of for May indicates that gasoline consumption is flat in comparison to the same month last year.
0.9 mb/d y-o-y to These two factors should ease the strong decline in US oil demand seen since 2006. Year-to-
average 23.4 mb/d in date, US oil demand has lost around 1.4 mb/d on average. May oil demand declined by 1.3 mb/d
2009 y-o-y, hence most of the decline was as a result of lower use of industrial fuel which declined by
12%. US oil demand in the second half of the year is expected to be better that the first half as
economic activities improve. Furthermore, the hurricane season this year is expected to be
calmer than average.
First quarter US oil demand declined by 5.3% or 1.0 mb/d y-o-y, however, gasoline declined by
only 1.3%.
Mexican oil demand plunged by a strong 8.6% y-o-y in April as a result of not only the downturn
in the economy, but also the negative effect of the swine flu. Industrial fuel oil dipped by more
than a third and diesel lost 10% of demand. On average, Mexican oil demand declined by 4.7%
y-o-y over the first four months. Of course, most of the decline is attributed to industrial fuels.
Gasoline consumption is stable, showing a flat performance in the first four months of the year.
Despite the increase in gasoline consumption, Canadian April oil demand declined by
4.8% y-o-y. The decline was attributed to industrial use.
Table 11: Domestic sales of refined petroleum products in Mexico (tb/d)
Jan - Apr 2009 Jan - Apr 2008 Change (tb/d) Change (%)
LPG 290 301 -11 -3.6
Gasoline 780 779 1 0.1
Jet Fuel 62 73 -11 -15.4
Diesel Oil 351 369 -19 -5.0
Fuel Oil 183 232 -49 -21.3
Other Products 78 76 3 3.6
Total Products 1,744 1,830 -86 -4.7
Given not only the disastrous economic effect but also fallout from the swine flu outbreak, North
America oil demand was revised down by 0.1 mb/d to show a decline of 0.9 mb/d y-o-y to
average 23.4 mb/d in 2009.
OECD - Europe
OECD Europe oil The European economy is still in a deep decline. The German economy consumes the most oil in
demand is forecast to Europe followed by France, however the biggest decline is expected to come from the Italian
decline by 0.41 mb/d demand in 2009. Germany’s oil demand showed a moderate decline in the first quarter of 0.5%
y-o-y to average y-o-y. Unlike the US, most of the decline in Germany’s oil demand is attributed to transport fuel.
14.8 mb/d in 2009 It is anticipated that German oil usage will decline by 2.8% in 2009. Declining industrial
production pushed oil demand in France to contract by 5% y-o-y in April. As expected, due to
the current economic trouble, the UK, Italy and Spain all experienced negative oil demand in
April.
Given the very dim picture of the European economy, OECD Europe oil demand is forecast to
decline by 0.41 mb/d y-o-y to average 14.8 mb/d in 2009.
OECD - Pacific
OECD-Pacific Japan decided to blend 1.3 mb of ETBE (ethyl tert-butyl ether) into its gasoline pool over the
demand declines by next twelve months as a part of diversification from fossil fuels. Like other OECD countries,
0.47 mb/d to average Japan has set a target for renewable usage. Of course, Japan will import most of its biofuels,
7.5 mb/d mainly from Asian countries. As expected, this new target will not only affect the country’s oil
consumption but increase the burden on the government budget.
24 June 2009
Declines in gasoline and crude oil for direct burning were disastrous for Japan’s oil demand in
April. Gasoline declined by 20% and crude for direct burning plunged 73%, pushing the change
in the country’s total oil usage to a fifteen-year low of 0.75 mb/d y-o-y. The situation in the
second largest country in the OECD Pacific is much better. South Korea’s oil demand fell by
only 2.5% y-o-y in March. Most of this decline was related to jet fuel and diesel. As the strong
decline in Japanese oil demand was more than anticipated, the forecast for 2009 OECD Pacific
was revised down by 50 tb/d, showing a decline of 0.47 mb/d to average 7.5 mb/d.
Table 12: Japanese domestic sales, tb/d

Apr 09 Change from Apr 08 Change from Apr 08 (%)
Gasoline 968 -241 -19.9
Naphtha 804 43 5.7
Jet Fuel 77 -10 -11.3
Kerosene 284 -29 -9.2
Gas Oil 542 -107 -16.5
Other Products 544 -248 -31.3
Direct Use of Crude 59 -157 -72.7
Total 3,278 -748 -18.6
Source: Ministry of Economy and Trade in Japan (METI).
DCs’ oil demand Taiwan's oil demand plunged in March Graph 15: Yearly changes in Indian oil demand 12 month
growth forecast at by 15% resulting from poor economic tb/d moving averages) tb/d
0.25 mb/d y-o-y in activities and the enhancement of 160 160
2009 to average public transportation. Consequently, 140 140
25.3 mb/d the country’s oil imports declined by 120 120
100 100
almost one-third in March y-o-y. 80 80
Thailand oil demand is similar to 60 60
40 40
Taiwan. Thailand oil demand lost 20 20
38 tb/d or 4.2% of its consumption in 0 0
March y-o-y. Most of the loss was -20 -20
-40 -40
attributed to fuel oil which is used in
Oct 08
Mar 09
May 08
Jun 08
Jan 09
Aug 08
Sep 08
Nov 08
Dec 08
Jul 08
Apr 08
Apr 09
Feb 09
industrial production and power plants.
Total Oil Gasoline Diesel Oil Fuel Oil
Oil consumption in selected Asian countries, y-o-y growth

tb/d
217
100
151
50
0
-50
-100 -86
-127
-150
-200
2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09
Taiwan Thailand Malaysia Total Other Asia
India oil demand is in a completely different situation. Resulting from improving economic
activities and higher consumption of transport fuel, India oil demand in April grew by 4.6% or
139 tb/d y-o-y to average 3.1 mb/d. The approach of the agricultural season will strengthen diesel
consumption over the coming months. India’s second quarter oil demand is forecast to grow by
0.1 mb/d y-o-y. Due to better-than-anticipated performance, the forecast for Other Asia oil
demand was revised up by 83 tb/d. Despite growth in India, total oil demand in the region is not
expected to see any growth in 2009.
June 2009 25
Graph 16: Changes in Indian oil demand, y-o-y

tb/d tb/d
300 300
250 250
200 200
150 150
100 100
50 50
0 0
-50 -50
-100 -100
Nov
Jan
Jun
Jul
Mar
Apr
Feb
Aug
Sep
Oct
May
Dec
Range 2004-2008 Average 2004-2008 2008 2009
Graph 17: Changes in Middle East oil demand, y-o-y

tb/d tb/d
500 500
400 400
300 300
200 200
100 100
1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q
Range 2004-2008 2009 Average 2004-2008 2008
Middle East expected The healthy Middle East economies kept Graph 18: Yearly oil demand growth in the Middle East
to show growth of oil consumption in Developing Countries tb/d tb/d
02 mb/d in 2009 on the positive side this year, as most of 250 250
the world’s oil demand dipped in the red.
Subsidized transportation fuel kept the 200 200
demand for gasoline and diesel growing
150 150
in the region. Iran’s new car registration
is estimated to reach 700,000 units this 100 100
year, pushing gasoline consumption up
by 6% y-o-y. 50 50
0 0
Given low GDP growth this year, relative
1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09
to last year, regional oil demand is
estimated to show growth of around 3% Others UAE Kuwait I.R. Iran Saudi Arabia
or 0.2 mb/d y-o-y in 2009.
Latin America is forecast to see minor oil Graph 19: Yearly oil demand growth in Latin America
tb/d tb/d
demand growth this year. Brazilian oil
80 80
demand — once the catalyst for the
region’s oil demand growth — is losing its 60 60
power but not to the extent thought 40 40
previously. Hence, Latin America’s oil
demand was revised up by 20 tb/d y-o-y. 20 20
0 0
Developing Countries’ oil demand is
-20 -20
suffering from the current economic
downturn; hence oil demand growth is -40 -40
forecast at 0.25 mb/d y-o-y in 2009 to 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09
average 25.3 mb/d. Others Argentina Venezuela Brazil
26 June 2009
Table 13: Brazilian inland deliveries, mb/d
Mar 09 Mar 08 Change (mb/d) Change (%)

LPG 196 198 -3 -1.4
Gasoline 416 413 3 0.7
Jet/Kerosene 88 91 -3 -3.3
Diesel 731 750 -19 -2.6
Fuel Oil 86 90 -3 -3.4
Alcohol 256 204 53 25.8
Total 1773 1746 28 1.6
Other regions
As a result of the China's apparent oil demand in April changed from negative to positive growth. Since the
poor performance in beginning of the year, China’s oil demand has been on the decline; however, April data indicated
the first quarter, a 1.2% growth or 100,000 b/d increase y-o-y. Furthermore, the country’s oil imports switched
China’s oil demand from a y-o-y decline of 7% in March to growth of 3.7% in April. Unlike last year where Chinese
is forecast to grow by oil demand grew by 0.4 mb/d, this year oil demand growth is expected at only 51 tb/d or 0.6%.
only 20 tb/d y-o-y in This moderate growth is as a result of falling exports which suppressed industrial production.
2009 However, despite the decrease in power usage, industrial production increased by 7% in March.
This trend will push oil usage upward from the deep decline seen in the first quarter.
Graph 20: Changes in Chinese apparent oil demand, y-o-y

tb/d tb/d
1500 1500
1000 1000
500 500
0 0
-500 -500
-1000 -1000
Nov
Jan
Jun
Jul
Mar
Apr
Feb
Aug
Sep
Oct
May
Dec
Range 2004 -2008 Average 2004 - 2008 2008 2009
China began to increase its gasoline and diesel retail prices initially by 5%-6% in early June
2009 as a result of changes in international oil prices. China has adopted a more flexible regime
which will allow domestic prices to reflect real crude prices. Fluctuations in retail prices are
likely to affect the country’s oil demand only in a minor way.
As a result of the poor performance in the first quarter, China’s oil demand is forecast to grow
by only 20 tb/d y-o-y in 2009.
FSU apparent oil demand was worse than expected, resulting from dreadful economic activities
so far this year. As a result, the region’s oil demand was revised down by 40 tb/d in 2009.
June 2009 27
World Oil Supply

Non-OPEC
Forecast for 2008
Non-OPEC supply to Non-OPEC supply is estimated to Graph 21: Regional Non-OPEC supply growth, y-o-y
decline by 0.19 mb/d have averaged 50.32 mb/d in 2008, a mb/d 07/06 08/07 09/08
mb/d
in 2008 drop of 0.19 mb/d from the previous 0.6 0.6
year and unchanged from the last
report. There were minor upward and 0.4 0.4
downward revisions introduced to the
fourth quarter of 2008 but these have 0.2 0.2
offset each other. On a quarterly basis,
non-OPEC supply in 2008 stands at 0.0 0.0
50.73 mb/d, 50.55 mb/d, 49.72 mb/d
and 50.27 mb/d respectively. -0.2 -0.2
-0.4 -0.4
North OECD OECD Other Latin Middle Africa FSU
America Europe Asia Asia America East
Table 14: Non-OPEC oil supply in 2008, mb/d

Change
2007 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 2008 08/07
North America 14.30 14.22 14.05 13.63 13.80 13.92 -0.38
Western Europe 5.23 5.20 5.04 4.82 5.12 5.04 -0.19
OECD Pacific 0.60 0.58 0.63 0.64 0.67 0.63 0.03
Total OECD 20.14 20.01 19.72 19.09 19.59 19.60 -0.54
Other Asia 3.74 3.80 3.71 3.73 3.75 3.75 0.01

Latin America 3.88 4.00 4.06 4.12 4.14 4.08 0.20
Middle East 1.67 1.65 1.66 1.66 1.64 1.65 -0.02
Africa 2.71 2.75 2.75 2.74 2.73 2.75 0.04
Total DCs 12.00 12.20 12.19 12.25 12.27 12.23 0.23
FSU 12.52 12.62 12.67 12.45 12.49 12.56 0.04

Other Europe 0.15 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.12 0.13 -0.02
China 3.77 3.82 3.88 3.85 3.85 3.85 0.08
Total "Other regions" 16.44 16.57 16.68 16.43 16.46 16.53 0.10
Total Non-OPEC production 48.58 48.78 48.60 47.77 48.32 48.37 -0.21
Processing gains 1.92 1.95 1.95 1.95 1.95 1.95 0.03
Total Non-OPEC supply 50.50 50.73 50.55 49.72 50.27 50.32 -0.19
Previous estimate 50.50 50.73 50.55 49.72 50.27 50.32 -0.19
Revision 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Revisions to the 2008 estimate

In 2008, non-OPEC supply forecast experienced continued downward revisions. Since the
initial forecast of a growth of 1.01 mb/d over 2007, the projection experienced a series of
amendments to take into account the persistently evolving conditions. Among the factors
affecting developments in non-OPEC supply were delays, policies, weather conditions, price
environment, and technical problems. North America and FSU projections contributed to the
bulk of the downward supply revisions for 2008. The heavier-than-expected decline in Mexico
as well as various delays in Canada and the effect of hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico have all
caused the North America supply forecast to move from an initial growth of 0.22 mb/d to a
current decline of 0.38 mb/d.
The FSU supply forecast has also gone through various downward revisions with the region’s
supply moving from an initial growth of 0.46 mb/d to only 40 tb/d. Russia oil supply
experienced its first annual supply decline in almost a decade due to various project delays and
many above-ground factors. Azerbaijan supply suffered from the BTC pipeline explosion and
the ACG gas leak. Supplies from other regions have also influenced non-OPEC supply in
2008.
28 June 2009
Forecast for 2009
Non-OPEC supply to Non-OPEC supply in 2009 is forecast to increase by 0.21 mb/d over the previous year to
grow by 0.21 mb/d in average 50.52 mb/d, representing a minor downward revision of 10 tb/d from the previous
2009 forecast. On a quarterly basis, non-OPEC supply is foreseen to stand at 50.71 mb/d,
50.38 mb/d, 50.28 mb/d, and 50.73 mb/d respectively.
Table 15: Non-OPEC oil supply in 2009, mb/d

Change
2008 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 2009 09/08
North America 13.92 14.15 13.91 13.93 14.02 14.00 0.08
Western Europe 5.04 5.04 4.73 4.51 4.68 4.74 -0.31
OECD Pacific 0.63 0.64 0.65 0.66 0.61 0.64 0.00
Total OECD 19.60 19.83 19.28 19.09 19.30 19.37 -0.23
Other Asia 3.75 3.72 3.76 3.88 3.89 3.81 0.06
Latin America 4.08 4.27 4.26 4.37 4.39 4.32 0.24
Middle East 1.65 1.63 1.67 1.67 1.67 1.66 0.00
Africa 2.75 2.74 2.77 2.79 2.82 2.78 0.03
Total DCs 12.23 12.36 12.46 12.71 12.76 12.57 0.34
FSU 12.56 12.60 12.69 12.50 12.69 12.62 0.06

Other Europe 0.13 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.00
China 3.85 3.80 3.84 3.88 3.86 3.85 0.00
Total "Other regions" 16.53 16.53 16.66 16.50 16.68 16.59 0.06
Total Non-OPEC production 48.37 48.72 48.39 48.30 48.75 48.54 0.17
Processing gains 1.95 1.98 1.98 1.98 1.98 1.98 0.03
Total Non-OPEC supply 50.32 50.71 50.38 50.28 50.73 50.52 0.21
Previous estimate 50.32 50.71 50.42 50.29 50.74 50.54 0.22
Revision 0.00 0.00 -0.04 0.00 0.00 -0.01 -0.01
OECD
OECD supply to Total OECD countries’ oil supply is Graph 22: OECD's quarterly production
decline by 230 tb/d in expected to average 19.37 mb/d in mb/d mb/d
2009 2009, indicating a decline of around 21.0 21.0
230 tb/d from the previous year,
representing a downward revision of
20.5 20.5
around 5 tb/d from the earlier
forecast. The downward revision came
mainly from Western Europe and 20.0 20.0
OECD Pacific, while North America

supply indicated an upward revision 19.5 19.5
that partially offset the downward
revision. The upward revisions came 19.0 19.0
1Q06
2Q06
3Q06
4Q06
1Q07
2Q07
3Q07
4Q07
1Q08
2Q08
3Q08
4Q08
1Q09
2Q09
3Q09
4Q09
mainly in the first quarter of 2009. The

second quarter supply forecast
encountered downward revisions,
which partially offset the upward revisions in other quarters. The upward revisions were
introduced on the back of adjustment to actual production figures which indicated signs of
better-than-expected output. The downward revisions were necessary due to announced early
maintenance reported in different areas of the OECD, in addition to many other factors. On a
quarterly basis, OECD supply now stands at 19.83 mb/d, 19.28 mb/d, 19.09 mb/d, and
19.30 mb/d respectively.
North America supply forecast experienced an upward revision of 30 tb/d for total 2009 supply
to stand at 14.00 mb/d, an increase of 80 tb/d over the previous year. The upward revision
came on the back of revisions to the US and Mexico supply forecasts. On a quarterly basis,
North America supply is foreseen at 14.15 mb/d, 13.91 mb/d, 13.93 mb/d, and 14.02 mb/d
respectively. The Western Europe supply forecast was revised down by 15 tb/d to stand at an
average of 4.74 mb/d, a decline of 310 tb/d. On a quarterly basis, Western Europe supply is
seen at 5.04 mb/d, 4.73 mb/d, 4.51 mb/d, and 4.68 mb/d respectively. OECD Pacific
June 2009 29
experienced a downward revision of 20 tb/d compared to the previous month. OECD Pacific
oil supply is now projected to average 0.64 mb/d in 2009, flat compared to the previous year
following a downward revision incorporating recently received production figures.
USA
US supply show the US oil supply in 2009 is expected to increase by around 250 tb/d over the previous year to
largest non-OPEC average 7.75 mb/d, representing an upward revision of 13 tb/d over the earlier estimate. The
growth of 0.25 mb/d updated actual production data for the first quarter required this minor upward revision. The
shutdown experienced in some fields in Alaska, following the closure of the Drift River oil
terminal due to volcanic activity, is foreseen to have a minor influence on the overall US supply.
Forecast US supply growth remains the largest among all non-OPEC countries supported by
various projects such as the Tahiti developments which are seen as one of the main supporting
factors driving US supply growth, a project which is expected to ramp-up quickly. However,
risks remain with the start of the Atlantic hurricane season. On a quarterly basis, US oil supply is
foreseen at 7.79 mb/d, 7.74 mb/d, 7.70 mb/d, and 7.78 mb/d respectively. According to the
preliminary data, US oil supply is estimated to have averaged 7.71 mb/d in May.
Canada and Mexico

Canada supply to Oil supply from Canada is estimated to average 3.29 mb/d in 2009, an increase of around 40 tb/d
average 3.29 mb/d in over the previous year, indicating a minor downward revision of 6 tb/d from the previous report.
2009 The supply forecast for the first quarter encountered an upward revision to reflect adjustments due
to preliminary data. However, more than two months maintenance on the Syncrude coker at the
Fort McMurray operations during the second quarter required a downward revision that more than
offset the minor upward revision in the first quarter. On a quarterly basis, Canada production is
forecast to average 3.31 mb/d, 3.19 mb/d, 3.27 mb/d and 3.37 mb/d respectively. According to
preliminary data, Canadian oil supply is estimated to have averaged 3.01 mb/d in May.
Mexico supply to Mexico is anticipated to average 2.96 mb/d in 2009, a decline by around 210 tb/d from the
decline by 210 tb/d in previous year, follwing an upward revision of 23 tb/d. The upward revision was supported by
2009 adjustments to production figures as well as expected additions coming from the Ayatsil field near
the Ku-Maloob-Zapp (KMZ) and the Chicontepec field. The KMZ, which recently overtook the
Cantarell as Mexico’s biggest producing field, is foreseen to maintain its peak production in 2009.
Despite the difficult technical conditions and geology, the Chicontepec field is expected to add
new volumes which will partially offset the decline trend. On a quarterly basis, Mexico oil supply
is expected to average 3.04 mb/d, 2.98 mb/d, 2.96mb/d, and 2.87 mb/d respectively.
Western Europe
Western Europe Oil supply from OECD Western Europe is foreseen to decline by around 310 tb/d from the
supply to average previous year to average 4.74 mb/d in 2009. Compared to previous assessments, OECD Western
4.76 mb/d in 2009 Europe oil supply is forecast to decrease by around 15 tb/d, following adjustments to Norway
and UK supply projections. On a quarterly basis, OECD Western Europe supply in 2009 is seen
at 5.04 mb/d, 4.73 mb/d, 4.51 mb/d and 4.68 mb/d respectively.
Norway projected to Norwegian oil supply is forecast to average 2.34 mb/d in 2009, a decline of 120 tb/d compared
average 2.34 mb/d in to the previous year, representing a downward revision of 20 tb/d. The downward revision came
2009 despite an upward revision in the first quarter to adjust for actual production data. However, the
other quarters in 2009 saw downward revisions with the second quarter experiencing the largest.
The downward adjustment came on the back of various unplanned shutdowns, such as the
disruption of some volumes that feed the Ekofisk stream pipeline due to a leak. Also, production
was lower due to a shutdown at the Volhall oil field caused by technical issues as well as a leak
at the Kollsnes gas process center which reduced condensate production. On a quarterly basis,
Norway supply is expected to average 2.52 mb/d, 2.29 mb/d, 2.19 mb/d and 2.35 mb/d
respectively. Preliminary data indicates that Norway’s production stood at 2.34 mb/d in April, a
decline of 180 tb/d from March.
UK supply to drop Oil supply from the UK is anticipated to decline by 130 tb/d from the previous year to average
130 tb/d in 2009 1.44 mb/d in 2009, indicating a minor upward revision of 6 tb/d. The upward revision was
introduced in the first quarter to adjust for actual production data. The remaining quarters
remained relatively unchanged. On a quarterly basis, UK oil supply stands at 1.56 mb/d,
1.46 mb/d, 1.38 mb/d and 1.37 mb/d respectively.
30 June 2009
Denmark and Other Europe oil supply remained relatively flat from last month’s evaluation at
0.26 mb/d and 0.70 mb/d, respectively. There were minor adjustments to first quarter supply but
these did not affect the annual figures. Denmark oil supply is expected to experience an annual
drop of around 20 tb/d on mature field declines.
Asia Pacific
OECD Pacific supply OECD Asia Pacific oil supply is projected to average 0.64 mb/d in 2009, unchanged from the
to remain flat previous year. OECD Pacific supply was revised down 20 tb/d, due to changes to Australia and
New Zealand supply forecasts. On a quarterly basis, OECD Pacific oil supply is seen to average
0.64 mb/d, 0.65 mb/d, 0.66 mb/d and 0.61 mb/d respectively.
Australian supply Oil supply from Australia is anticipated to remain unchanged compared to the previous year to
unchanged from last average 0.54 mb/d in 2009, representing a downward revision of 8 tb/d. Updated production data
year for the first quarter indicated lower-than-expected production which required the minor
downward revision. On quarterly basis, Australia supply is foreseen to average 0.55 mb/d,
0.54 mb/d, 0.55 mb/d, and 0.50 mb/d respectively.
New Zealand oil supply is estimated to average 0.10 mb/d in 2009, flat from the previous year
following a downward revision of 12 tb/d. The downward revision came on the back of updated
information regarding the ramp-up of the Maari field which is now expected to peak in 2010.
DC supply to average Developing Countries (DCs) oil supply is forecast to average 12.57 mb/d in 2009, an increase
12.57 mb/d in 2009 of 0.34 mb/d over 2008, indicating a downward revision of 49 tb/d from last month’s level. Oil
supply from Other Asia is estimated to increase by around 60 tb/d to average 3.81 mb/d in
2009. Latin America oil supply is expected to increase by 0.24 mb/d to average 4.32 mb/d in
2009. The Middle East oil supply is seen to remain relatively unchanged in 2009 compared to
the previous year. Oil production from the African region is foreseen to increase by 30 tb/d to
average 2.78 mb/d in 2009. On a quarterly basis, DC total oil supply is projected to stand at
Other Asia supply to Oil supply from Other Asia is expected Graph 23: Developing Countries' quarterly production
average 3.81 mb/d in to average 3.81 mb/d in 2009, a growth mb/d mb/d
2009 of 60 tb/d over the previous year. The
13.00 13.00
current supply level for Other Asia
represents a downward revision of 12.75 12.75
14 tb/d from the previous month as a 12.50 12.50
result of downward adjustments to the
supply forecasts for India and Indonesia, 12.25 12.25
while supply projections for Thailand 12.00 12.00
encountered a minor quarterly upward
revision, which was not enough to affect 11.75 11.75
the annual level. India oil supply 11.50 11.50

1Q06
2Q06
3Q06
4Q06
1Q07
2Q07
3Q07
4Q07
1Q08
2Q08
3Q08
4Q08
1Q09
2Q09
3Q09
4Q09
forecast was revised up slightly in the

first quarter to adjust for actual
production figures. However, the third
and fourth quarters experienced downward revisions on the back of the redistribution of the
addition from the Mangala oil field which is expected to start production in the second half of
2009. India oil supply is seen to average 0.82 mb/d in 2009, flat compared to the previous year.
Oil supply from Indonesia was revised down on the back of delays affecting the Cepu
development. Currently, Indonesia supply is foreseen to increase by 20 tb/d over last year to
average 1.06 mb/d in 2009. In Thailand, the Bualuang oil field is expected to add a small volume
to supply, which required a minor quarterly upward revision. On a quarterly basis, Other Asia
stands at 3.72 mb/d, 3.76 mb/d, 3.88 mb/d and 3.89 mb/d respectively.
Latin America to Oil supply from Latin America is expected to average 4.32 mb/d in 2009, an increase of
increase by 0.24 mb/d 0.24 mb/d over last year following a downward revision of 10 tb/d. Supply growth from Latin
in 2009 America in 2009 remains the highest among all non-OPEC groups despite the minor downward
revision of this month’s supply estimates. The downward revisions came on the back of
adjustment to actual production data for both Argentina and Colombia. Brazil remains as the
strongest link in terms of supply growth in Latin America with an anticipated increase of
June 2009 31
0.20 mb/d in 2009. On a quarterly basis, Latin America supply stands at 4.27 mb/d, 4.26 mb/d,
4.37 mb/d and 4.39 mb/d respectively.
Middle East to remain Middle East oil supply is foreseen to remain relatively unchanged in 2009, indicating a
at 1.66 mb/d in 2009 downward revision of around 7tb/d. The downward revision affected Syria’s supply forecast on
the back of adjustment to actual production figures in the first quarter. The minor downward
revision came despite the expectation of improved output from the Khurbet field. According to
the current forecast, Syria oil supply is seen to average 0.40 mb/d in 2009, unchanged from last
year’s level. On quarterly basis, Middle East supply stands at 1.63 mb/d in the first quarter and
1.67 mb/d in the remaining quarters.
African supply is seen to average 2.78 mb/d in 2009, an increase of 30 tb/d over the previous
year following a downward revision of 17 tb/d. The downward revision was introduced to Congo
and Sudan supply forecasts following adjustments to preliminary production data. Congo oil
supply is forecast to increase by 30 tb/d to average 0.29 mb/d in 2009 at 1.66 mb/d supported by
the Moho Bilondo developments. On a quarterly basis, African supply stands at 2.74 mb/d,
2.77 mb/d, 2.79 mb/d and 2.82 mb/d respectively.
FSU, Other Regions

FSU supply to grow Oil supply from the FSU is estimated to Graph 24: FSU and other region's quarterly production
by 60 tb/d in 2009 grow by around 60 tb/d over the mb/d mb/d
previous year to average 12.62 mb/d in 13.5 4.1
2009. The current supply forecast
represents a minor upward revision of 13.0 4.0
26 tb/d due to adjustments to Russia,
Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan. On a 12.5 3.9
quarterly basis, total oil supply in the
12.0 3.8
FSU is estimated to stand at 12.60 mb/d,
12.69 mb/d, 12.50 mb/d and 12.69 mb/d 11.5 3.7
respectively. Oil supply from China is
1Q06
2Q06
3Q06
4Q06
1Q07
2Q07
3Q07
4Q07
1Q08
2Q08
3Q08
4Q08
1Q09
2Q09
3Q09
4Q09
foreseen to increase by around 30 tb/d
over the previous year to average
FSU (LHS) Other Regions (RHS)
3.85 mb/d in 2009. Other Europe is seen
to remain flat at 0.12 mb/d.
Russia
Russia supply forecast Oil supply from Russia is expected to average 9.70 mb/d in 2009, a drop of around 80 tb/d from
revised up slightly last year. This represents an upward revision of 12 tb/d due to healthy production levels. The
positive performance seen in Russia production requires careful monitoring of the supply
forecast over the coming period as expected new additions from the Kamennoye, Vankor and
Yuri Korchagin fields to oil supply will have a considerable impact on overall Russian supply.
Additionally, the devaluation of the rouble against the US dollar has reduced the impact of lower
capex on Russia oil supply. On quarterly basis, Russian oil supply is seen to average 9.77 mb/d,
9.72 mb/d, 9.66 mb/d and 9.64 mb/d respectively. May preliminary data suggests that Russia
production stood at 9.85 mb/d.
Caspian
Kazakhstan supply to Kazakh oil production is projected to increase by 80 tb/d over the previous year to average
average 1.49 mb/d in 1.49 mb/d in 2009. This represents a minor upward revision of 5 tb/d due to the expected startup
2009 of the Komsomolskoe field over the coming period. Within the FSU region, Kazakhstan remains
the country with highest expected growth in 2009. The relatively significant growth is supported
by the completion of capacity expansion at the Tengiz field. On a quarterly basis, Kazakhstan
supply is anticipated to stand at 1.48 mb/d, 1.51 mb/d, 1.40 mb/d and 1.58 mb/d respectively.
Azerbaijan supply to Azeri oil supply is forecast to increase by 60 tb/d over last year to average 0.97 mb/d in 2009,
grow by 60 tb/d representing a minor upward revision of 8 tb/d. The adjustment came only in the first quarter to
reflect updated actual production data. On a quarterly basis, Azerbaijan oil supply is estimated to
average 0.91 mb/d, 0.99 mb/d, 0.96 mb/d and 1.00 mb/d respectively.
32 June 2009
Oil supply from Other Europe remained relatively steady from the previous month with the
supply forecast for 2009 averaging 0.12 mb/d.
China
China supply to Oil supply from China is expected to remain relatively unchanged from the previous year to
average 3.85 mb/d in average 3.85 mb/d in 2009. The current level indicates an upward revision of 15 tb/d. The
2009 revisions were adopted in the second, third and fourth quarters on the back of redistribution of
the Bohai Bay production. On a quarterly basis, China oil supply is estimated to average
OPEC natural gas liquids and non-conventional oils

OPEC NGLs and non-conventional oils are estimated to have averaged 4.31 mb/d in 2008, a
growth of around 0.28 mb/d over the previous year, unchanged from last month. In 2009,
OPEC NGLs and non-conventional oils are forecast to increase by 0.36 mb/d to average
4.68 mb/d.
Table 16: OPEC NGLs + non-conventional oils, 2006-2009

Change Change Change
2006 2007 07/06 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 2008 08/07 2009 09/08
Total OPEC 3.89 4.03 0.14 4.22 4.33 4.35 4.35 4.31 0.28 4.68 0.36
OPEC crude oil production

OPEC crude output Total OPEC crude oil production averaged 28.27 mb/d in May, according to secondary sources,
averaged 28.27 mb/d up 135 tb/d from the previous month. Most Member Countries saw minor increases in crude oil
in May production, except Algeria and Qatar where output declined slightly. Angola, Venezuela and
Nigeria supply experienced increases of 20 tb/d or more in May compared to a month earlier. As
per secondary sources, OPEC crude production, not including Iraq, stood at 25.90 mb/d in May,
an increase of 119 tb/d from the previous month.
Table 17: OPEC crude oil production based on secondary sources , 1,000 b/d
2007 2008 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 Mar 09 Apr09 May 09 May/Apr
Algeria 1,360 1,390 1,401 1,362 1,266 1,253 1,263 1,257 -5.5
Angola 1,660 1,871 1,845 1,870 1,700 1,665 1,698 1,750 51.7
Ecuador 507 503 503 501 482 475 478 480 2.1
Iran, I.R. 3,855 3,892 3,917 3,831 3,683 3,658 3,708 3,716 7.7
Iraq 2,089 2,338 2,329 2,336 2,321 2,338 2,352 2,368 15.9
Kuwait 2,464 2,554 2,600 2,500 2,276 2,230 2,236 2,236 0.2
Libya, S.P.A.J. 1,710 1,715 1,683 1,697 1,577 1,549 1,554 1,566 11.8
Nigeria 2,125 1,947 1,955 1,931 1,815 1,758 1,721 1,740 19.5
Qatar 807 840 859 810 762 754 768 765 -3.3
Saudi Arabia 8,654 9,113 9,460 8,760 7,964 7,959 7,905 7,916 11.1
UAE 2,504 2,557 2,603 2,431 2,268 2,246 2,238 2,238 0.5
Venezuela 2,392 2,346 2,339 2,299 2,202 2,198 2,215 2,238 23.0
Total OPEC 30,126 31,066 31,495 30,328 28,315 28,083 28,136 28,271 134.7
OPEC excl. Iraq 28,037 28,728 29,166 27,993 25,995 25,745 25,784 25,903 118.8
World Oil Supply

Global supply Preliminary figures indicate that global oil supply increased 90 tb/d in May to average
estimated at 83.35 mb/d. Non-OPEC supply experienced a drop of around 40 tb/d while OPEC crude
83.4 mb/d in May production increased. The share of OPEC crude oil in global production increased slightly to
33.9% in May. The estimate is based on preliminary data for non-OPEC supply, estimates for
OPEC NGLs and OPEC crude production from secondary sources.
June 2009 33
Graph 25: OPEC and World oil supply

mb/d
mb/d
OPEC Crude production(LHS) World supply(RHS)
33.0 87.5
87.0
32.0 86.5
86.0
31.0
85.5
85.0
30.0
84.5
84.0
29.0
83.5
28.0 83.0
82.5
27.0 82.0
Oct-07
Oct-08
Mar-08
Mar-09
Jun-07
Jan-08
May-08
Jun-08
Jan-09
May-09
Aug-07
Sep-07
Nov-07
Dec-07
Aug-08
Sep-08
Nov-08
Dec-08
Jul-07
Jul-08
Apr-08
Apr-09
Feb-08
Feb-09
34 June 2009
Product Markets and Refinery Operations

Refining margins A combination of gasoline stock Graph 26: Refining margins
surged in the Atlantic draws in the US with lower refinery US$/b US$/b
Basin runs and product output have 24 24
provided support for product 20 20
16 16
markets and lifted refining margins, 12 12
especially in the Atlantic Basin. 8 8
However, due to bearish momentum 4 4
0 0
in the distillates market and an -4 -4
expected lack of sufficient strength -8 -8
-12 -12
in gasoline demand over the driving
May 08
May 09
Nov 08
Dec 08
Jul 08
Oct 08
Apr 09
Feb 09
Mar 09
Jun 08
Jan 09
Aug 08
Sep 08
season, the recent positive
developments in the gasoline market
are not expected to persist over the
WTI (US Gulf) A.Heavy (US Gulf) Brent (Rott.) Dubai (Sing.)
coming months to lead the market.
Meanwhile, ample distillate stocks have created operational restrictions for refiners to
significantly boost throughputs over the coming months as higher outputs would further
deteriorate middle distillate market fundamentals and exert pressure on refining margins. Under
such circumstances, refiners would try to switch their operation mode in favour of gasoline
production rather than boost their runs. Additionally, the recent uplift in crude prices may also
have a negative impact on refining margins and encourage refiners to continue lower-than-
normal throughputs over the coming months.
As Graph 26 shows, refining margins for WTI crude on the US Gulf Coast jumped to $9.43/b in
May from $5.25/b the previous month. Although current refining margins may hold up over the
very short-term, there is a risk of downward pressure if gasoline demand remains weak over the
driving season. In Europe, the market followed a similar trend and refining margins for Brent
crude rose to $4.54/b from $4.33/b in April.
In Asia, refining margins remained unhealthy due to more costly crude oil and slowing demand
for products. Refining margins for Dubai crude oil in Singapore fell to 19¢/b in May from
$1.60/b the previous month. Looking ahead, arbitrage opportunities to the US West Coast and
tight product supplies, resulting from a continuation of seasonal refinery turnarounds, may lift
Asian refining margins next month.
Refinery operations
Refinery throughputs Refinery utilization rates, especially in Graph 27: Refinery utilization rates
have not yet the Atlantic Basin, usually increase in % %
experienced a May. However, due to poor 100 100
seasonal surge in the performance of refinery economics in 95 95
Atlantic Basin recent months, Western refiners so far 90 90
have not followed their typical 85 85
behaviour and are reluctant to lift 80 80
operation levels. The current operation
75 75
policy may continue over the coming
70 70
months.
Oct 08
Mar 09
May 08
Jun 08
Jan 09
May 09
Aug 08
Sep 08
Nov 08
Dec 08
Jul 08
Apr 09
Feb 09
As Graph 27 indicates, refinery

utilization rates in the US in May
United States EU-16 Japan Singapore
increased slightly by 1% compared
to the previous month to record
83.4%. In Europe, refinery utilization rates are estimated to fall by 1.6% to reach 78.2%
from 79.8% in April. In Asia, refinery throughputs fell further due to continued seasonal
maintenance. Refinery utilization rates in Japan slipped by 3.6% to 80.2% from 83.8 % in
the previous month.
Looking ahead, with the start of the driving season and completion of maintenance schedules,
particularly in the Atlantic Basin, refinery utilization rates are expected to increase in the coming
months. However, due to the underlying economic crisis and its adverse impact on product
demand, refiners are not expected to raise their operation levels significantly in the next months.
June 2009 35
US market
Gasoline stock draws A combination of lower refinery Graph 28: US Gulf crack spread vs. WTI, 2009
in May lifted US runs and increasing gasoline US$/b US$/b
refining margins demand prior to the start of the 30 30
driving season has led to gasoline
20 20
stock draws and provided support
for both futures and cash gasoline 10 10
markets. According to the latest EIA 0 0
report, US gasoline demand growth -10 -10
has improved compared to recent
months, but remains weak. The -20 -20
5 Jun
13 Mar
20 Mar
27 Mar
1 May
8 May
15 May
22 May
29 May
3 Apr
10 Apr
17 Apr
24 Apr
recent bullish developments in the
gasoline market have also given
support to the naphtha market. Prem.Gasoline Unl.93 Jet/Kero
Gasoil/Diesel (0.05%S) Fuel Oil (1.0%S)
Following these developments, the

gasoline crack spread against WTI crude on the US Gulf Coast jumped to around $19/b from
$15/b in April. Approaching the peak of the driving season, market players will concentrate their
attention to gasoline stock developments, however, due to ample idle refinery capacity, the
gasoline market is not expected to lead the market in the next months.
Meanwhile, ample stocks of middle distillates along with sluggish demand resulting from the
underlying economic crisis have further deteriorated middle distillate market sentiment. In line
with these developments, the gasoil crack spread in the US Gulf Coast slid to $2/b in May from
nearly $5/b the previous month. Due to persisting bearish momentum in the distillates market,
refiners are not able to increase operation levels significantly, as it would lead to a further
deterioration in the market. Considering such circumstances, American refiners would prefer to
adjust their operation mode in favour of gasoline rather than to follow up the typical seasonal
trend and increase throughputs.
US fuel oil market performance has weakened in May due to slowing regional demand and
limited arbitrage opportunity to Asia-Pacific. The fuel oil crack spread against WTI crude fell to
minus $4/b in the latter part of May from about minus $2/b in April. The current situation of the
fuel oil market may deteriorate further in the coming months due to increasing refinery
throughputs.
European market
European market European gasoline market sentiment Graph 29: Rotterdam crack spreads vs. Brent, 2009
benefited from was boosted by bullish reports about US$/b US$/b
positive the US gasoline market and gasoline 20 20
developments in the prices have jumped significantly in
US gasoline market the last weeks. Export opportunities 10 10
to West Africa and Middle East also 0 0
provided support for the European
gasoline market. The gasoline -10 -10
spread against Brent crude oil
-20 -20
surged to over $15/b in May from
1 May
8 May
3 Apr
15 May
22 May
29 May
10 Apr
17 Apr
24 Apr
5 Jun
13 Mar
20 Mar
27 Mar
around $10/b the previous month.

The current situation of the
European gasoline market may Prem.Gasoline Unl.50ppm Jet/Kero
change in the next months as Gasoil 50ppm Fuel Oil (1.0%S)
refiners switch their operation mode

in favour of gasoline outputs.
Europe as a major outlet for middle distillates is also faced with ample distillates stocks and
relatively weak demand. This situation has further undermined distillate market sentiment and
widened the contango level for the coming months. The persisting contango level would
encourage market players to continue building distillate stocks over the next months. Following
these developments, the gasoil crack spread versus Brent crude oil plummeted to around $3/b
from about $10/b in April (see Graph 29). Due to continued economic weakness and the
negative impacts on middle distillate demand, the current situation of the European distillates
market is not expected to improve in the near future.
36 June 2009
Despite bearish developments on the gasoil market, some positive signs can be seen in the
European jet fuel oil market. In line with this movement, the jet fuel swaps market flipped into
backwardation. Bullish movements on the jet fuel swaps market may encourage market
participants to start selling from floating storage.
European fuel oil prices continued to strengthen along with crude oil in May. But limited export
opportunities to Asia and ample supplies from Russia exerted pressure on fuel oil market
sentiment over the last weeks. As Graph 29 shows the crack spread of low sulfur fuel oil versus
Brent crude oil widened to minus $7.5/b in the latter part of May from minus $5/b early May.
The European fuel oil market situation may ease further in the next month amid limited regional
demand and potential excess supplies resulting from increasing refineries’ throughputs during
the driving season.
Asian market
Asian naphtha Increasing demand from Graph 30: Singapore crack spreads vs. Dubai, 2009
market sentiment has petrochemical units along with fewer US$/b US$/b
improved European arbitrage cargoes and 20 20
limited exports from India have
lifted naphtha prices in Asia. 10 10
Although the near-term outlook for
the naphtha market appears firm,
0 0
the arbitrage cargoes from Europe
are expected to increase in future as
many European petrochemical units -10 -10
5 Jun
13 Mar
20 Mar
27 Mar
1 May
8 May
3 Apr
15 May
22 May
29 May
10 Apr
17 Apr
24 Apr
switched their feedstock from
naphtha to liquefied petroleum gas.
Prem.Gasoline Unl.92 Jet/Kero
Apart from naphtha, the gasoline Gasoil 50ppm Fuel Oil 180CST (2.0%S)
market in Asia gained momentum in
the last weeks due to tight supplies resulting from refinery maintenance and export opportunity
to the US west coast market. Gasoline crack spread against Dubai crude oil in Singapore surged
to around $10/b recently from about $7/b in April (see Graph 30). Similarly, due to the
unplanned shutdown of the Cilacap refinery in Indonesia, the Asian gasoline market is expected
to gain further ground in the near future.
Despite positive developments in the light distillates market, middl-of-the-barrel components

continued to lose momentum due to slowing regional demand and additional supplies from the
new refinery capacities in India and China. The gasoil crack spread fell to below $7/b due to
increasing inventory levels. Considering the current prospects for Asian economic growth, the
middle distillates market is Asia is not expected to rebound in the coming months.
With regard to fuel oil, the Asian market sentiment remained strong due to fewer supplies from
the West, Middle East and fewer regional supplies because of refinery maintenance schedules.
Following these developments, backwardation widened in the fuel oil market and the crack
spread versus Dubai crude remained around $3/b. Positive developments in the Asian fuel oil
market have provided support for heavy crude oil differentials in the spot market.
June 2009 37
Table 18: Refined product prices, US$/b

Change
Mar 09 Apr 09 May 09 May/Apr
US Gulf (Cargoes):
Naphtha 51.79 52.45 62.48 10.03
Premium gasoline (unleaded 93) 59.71 65.66 72.93 7.27
Regular gasoline (unleaded 87) 55.15 58.75 68.93 10.17
Jet/Kerosene 53.66 57.62 59.88 2.26
Gasoil (0.05% S) 51.79 55.97 58.49 2.52
Fuel oil (1.0% S) 38.74 46.41 54.14 7.73
Fuel oil (3.0% S) 37.61 42.86 49.75 6.89
Rotterdam (Barges FoB):
Naphtha 43.82 44.61 47.57 2.96
Premium gasoline (unleaded 10 ppm) 54.68 58.56 68.88 10.32
Jet/Kerosene 55.33 57.38 58.69 1.31
Gasoil/Diesel (10 ppm) 55.90 56.88 57.93 1.05
Fuel oil (1.0% S) 36.43 41.71 45.54 3.83
Fuel oil (3.5% S) 37.29 40.33 46.31 5.98
Mediterranean (Cargoes):
Naphtha 42.05 43.40 45.90 2.51
Premium gasoline (50 ppm) 51.28 53.78 55.79 2.01
Jet/Kerosene 53.64 55.88 57.53 1.65
Fuel oil (1.0% S) 39.37 42.31 47.89 5.59
Fuel oil (3.5% S) 36.74 40.52 46.08 5.56
Singapore (Cargoes):
Naphtha 46.53 49.35 51.44 2.09
Regular gasoline (unleaded 92) 53.14 58.27 62.36 4.10
Jet/Kerosene 53.34 59.10 61.02 1.93
Fuel oil (180 cst 2.0% S) 38.70 45.66 51.94 6.27
Fuel oil (380 cst 3.5% S) 38.05 44.90 51.34 6.44
Table 19: Refinery operations in selected OECD countries

Refinery throughput Refinery utilization
mb/d %
Mar 09 Apr 09 May 09 May/Apr Mar 09 Apr 09 May 09 May/Apr
USA 14.64 14.38 14.55 0.17 83.9 82.4 83.4 1.0
France 1.62 1.43 1.40 -0.03 81.7 72.0 70.2 -1.7
Germany 2.09 2.17 2.09 -0.07 86.6 89.6 86.6 -3.1
Italy 1.73 1.69 1.63 -0.05 73.9 R 72.1 69.8 -2.3
UK 1.52 1.37 1.42 0.05 81.7 73.7 76.4 2.7
Euro16 11.71 11.23 10.99 -0.24 83.3 79.8 78.2 -1.7
Japan 3.83 3.90 3.73 -0.17 82.3 83.8 80.2 -3.7
R Revised since last issue.
Sources: OPEC statistics; Argus; Euroilstock Inventory Report; IEA.
38 June 2009
The Tanker Market

OPEC spot fixtures According to preliminary data, OPEC spot fixtures increased in May by as much as 21%
increased by over compared to the very low rate the previous month, averaging about 13.04 mb/d. Both fixtures
20% compared to the from the Middle East, east-bound and west-bound, were higher in May compared to a month
previous month earlier. Fixtures heading east increased by 34% to average 5.98 mb/d compared to 4.48 mb/d a
month ago, while those heading west increased by 16% to average 1.27 mb/d compared to
1.1 mb/d a month earlier. OPEC spot fixtures in May also showed an increase of 2% compared
to the same month a year ago. Similarly, global spot fixtures increased in May by 21% compared
to the previous month to stand at 20.42 mb/d and were about 5% higher compared to the same
month the previous year.
OPEC sailings and Sailings from OPEC in May were 22.85 mb/d, up 2% from 22.37 mb/d the previous month, but
sailings from the 6% lower than the same month a year earlier. Middle East sailings in May were at 16.71 mb/d,
Middle East were about 3% higher than at the previous month, but 5% lower than a year ago. Crude oil arrivals in
marginally higher the US dropped by 5% in May compared to the previous month. Crude oil trade figures indicated
together with arrivals that US crude oil imports were 8% lower in May compared to the previous month, in line with
in both the US and lower crude arrivals to the country. Crude oil arrivals in Europe were also lower in May, while
Europe those in Japan were steady, both compared to the previous month.
Table 20: Tanker chartering, sailings and arrivals, mb/d

Change
Spot Chartering
All Areas 17.00 16.91 20.42 3.51
OPEC 10.30 10.66 13.04 2.38
Middle East/ East 4.55 4.48 5.98 1.50
Middle East/ West 1.06 1.10 1.27 0.17
Outside Midlle East 4.69 5.08 5.79 0.71
Sailings
OPEC 22.39 22.37 22.85 0.48
Middle East 16.19 16.27 16.71 0.44
Arrivals
US Gulf Coast, US East Coast and Caribbean 8.53 8.78 8.34 -0.44
North-West Europe 7.35 7.25 7.18 -0.07
Euromed 4.78 5.97 5.91 -0.06
Japan 4.12 3.56 3.56 0.00
Source: “Oil Movements” and Lloyd's Marine Intelligence Unit.
Apart from the VLCC sector, the tanker market witnessed a relatively good month in May
compared to the previous four months in 2009. The month ended with gains in all other vessel
categories with the clean tanker market performing even better. The weakest sector in May was
once again the VLCC sector which is apparently the sector that suffers most from the continued
global economic crisis and OPEC production adjustments. High tonnage availability of the
VLCC sector in May was enhanced by the return to the market of as many as 20 vessels that
were tied-up in storage operations. In May, storing at sea lost momentum towards the end of the
month with the narrowing of the contango structure in crude oil futures. Estimates put the
number of VLCCs that were still tied up in storage operations at the end of the month at about
34 vessels, down from 53 at the end of April, representing about 7% of the global VLCC fleet.
In addition, it is estimated that about 28 new VLCCs entered the market since the beginning of
the year with very few getting out. In May the Suezmax market was in a better shape in both West
Africa and North West Europe, while the Aframax sector performed the best and ended the month
with good gains compared to April.
Taking the top three vessel categories into consideration, average spot freight rates for crude oil
tankers were 5% higher in May compared to the previous month, yet 69% lower compared to the
same month a year earlier, taking into consideration the changes in WS flat rates as of January
2009. Once again the VLCC sector was the weakest sector in May, declining by a further 5%
from already very low rates the previous month. The Suezmax sector was almost steady this
June 2009 39
month with a slight increase of about 2% compared to a month earlier. Aframax freight rates had
a relatively strong showing in May with a good level of activities to the West of Suez lifting
average rates for the month by about 14% compared to the previous month.
On average, the VLCC spot freight Graph 31: Monthly averages of crude oil spot freight rates
rates were 5% lower in May compared Worldscale Worldscale
to the previous month and substantially 300 300
lower, by 78%, compared to the same 250 250
month a year earlier. New vessels 200 2009 200
WS
entering the market together with the 150 150
release of about 20 VLCCs from 100 100
storage operations at a time of lower 50 50
OPEC production have all led to a 0 0
substantial tonnage availability in the
May 08
May 09
Nov 08
Dec 08
Jul 08
Oct 08
Apr 09
Feb 09
Mar 09
Jun 08
Jan 09
Aug 08
Sep 08
market, further depressing freight rates
in this sector to levels not witnessed
for a long time. It was reported that
Med/NWE (Aframax) W.Africa/USG (Suezmax) Mid.East/East (VLCC)
VLCC fixings out of the Middle East
in May had declined to 98 compared to
107 during the same month last year. Spot freight rates for VLCCs trading on the long haul route
from the Middle East-to-East, which declined by 25% in April compared to the previous month,
declined by another 5% in May compared to the earlier month. Freight rates on this route started
the month at WS30, reached WS27 in Mid-May and ended at WS29 with a monthly average of
WS29. Middle East-to-West spot freight rates closed the month at an average of WS22, steady
compared to the previous month after reaching as low as WS20 in the middle of the month. On
the other hand, VLCC spot freight rates for voyages from West Africa-to-East were fluctuating
between WS32 to WS37 throughout the month, ending at an average of WS33, about 8% lower
compared to the previous month, the highest drop among all reported VLCC routes this month.
Suezmax spot freight rates for voyages to the US from West Africa and Northwest Europe
(NEW) increased marginally in May by an average of 2% compared to the previous month, yet
were 68% lower compared to the same month a year earlier, taking into consideration the
changes in WS flat rates as of January 2009. On the West Africa-to-US route, freight rates
firmed during the first half of the month supported by an increasing interest to load West African
crudes onto smaller Suezmax vessels which pushed freight rates to as high as WS64 before
weakening again, ending the month at WS42 with a monthly average of WS55. Freight rates on
the NWE-to-US route followed exactly the same pattern of fluctuations, ending the month at an
average of WS53.
Average Aframax spot freight rates for the four reported routes increased in May by 14%
compared to the previous month, yet were 66% lower compared to a year earlier. Apart from the
East of Suez Aframax route, all West of Suez routes ended with a monthly gain compared to
April, taking advantage of the 140,000 b/d increase in May’s scheduled loadings of the Russian
exports through the Black Sea. Freight rates on both the Mediterranean to NWE and the
Caribbean to the US Coast Aframax routes indicated the highest monthly increase of 26% and
23% respectively, both compared to April. Rates on the cross Mediterranean route ended the
month at about WS62 with a monthly average of WS68 indicating a gain of 10% compared to
the previous month. To the East of Suez, freight rates on the Indonesia-to-East Aframax route
were 3% lower in May compared to April mainly due to modest activity and plenty availability
of tonnage.
40 June 2009
Table 21: Spot tanker crude freight rates, Worldscale
Size Change
1,000 DWT Mar 09 Apr 09 May 09 May/Apr
Crude
Middle East/east 230-280 40 30 29 -1
Middle East/west 270-285 33 22 22 0
West Africa/east 260 42 36 33 -3
West Africa/US Gulf Coast 130-135 80 54 55 1
NW Europe/USEC - USGC 130-135 75 52 53 1
Indonesia/US West Coast 80-85 67 59 57 -2
Caribbean/US East Coast 50-55 119 62 76 14
Mediterranean/Mediterranean 80-85 71 62 68 6
Mediterranean/North-West Europe 80-85 64 53 67 14
Source: Galbraith’s Tanker Market Report and Platt's.
The clean tanker market rebounded in Graph 32: Monthly averages of clean spot freight rates
May on the back of a very weak Worldscale
Worldscale
previous month. Apart from the East of
500 500
Suez-to-Singapore route, all reported
400 400
routes ended the month with a clear 2009
300 WS 300
gain compared to a month earlier. On
average, combined freight rates for 200 200
East and West of Suez increased by 100 100
37% compared to the previous month, 0 0
yet were 48% lower compared to the
May 08
May 09
Nov 08
Dec 08
Jul 08
Oct 08
Apr 09
Feb 09
Mar 09
Jun 08
Jan 09
Aug 08
Sep 08
same month a year earlier. Storing
products at sea continued in May,
though at a slower pace compared to a
Mid.East/East Caribs/USG NWE./USEC-USG Med/Med
month earlier. By the end of May,
about 30 to 35 clean tankers were tied
up in storage operations mainly in Northwest Europe. In addition, reports also indicated that at
least two new VLCCs were hired to store gasoil in Europe toward the end of the month. The
relative weaker showing of the East of Suez market was due to the fact that most of product
floating storage was taking place to the West of Suez while the markets in Northwest Europe and
the Caribbean were very active. The Middle East-to-East route, where freight rates declined by
37% in April compared to March, rebounded in May with an increase of about 20% compared to
the previous month. Rates on this route started the month at about WS60 and ended at WS73
with a monthly average of WS65 compared to WS54 in April. Freight rates on the Singapore-to-
East route dropped by 5% in May compared to the previous month. As a result, average East of
Suez clean spot freight rates were 7% higher in May compared to the previous month but lower
by 55% compared to the same month a year earlier.
On average, West of Suez clean freight rates were 47% higher in May compared to the previous
month and were 46% lower compared to May 2008, taking into consideration the changes in
West of Suez flat rates as of January 2009. Gasoline movements trans-atlantic from NWE
continued their strong showing which started during the second half of April during most of May
before easing towards the end of the month. Freight rates on this route ended the month at
WS121 with a monthly average of WS125 indicating the highest increase of 64% among all
West of Suez clean routes. Clean spot freight rates for the Caribbean-to-US route also increased
by 60% in May compared to the previous month, but rates here were much stronger during the
first half of the month, reaching as high as WS156 before ending at WS140 with a monthly
average of WS147 compared to WS92 in April. In the Mediterranean, clean spot freight rates for
both the cross-Mediterranean and the Med-to-NWE routes were higher in May by an average of
35% compared to the previous month.
June 2009 41
Table 22: Spot tanker product freight rates, Worldscale

Size Change
1,000 DWT Mar 09 Apr 09 May 09 May/Apr
Products
Middle East/east 30-35 87 54 65 11
Singapore/east 30-35 88 64 61 -3
Caribbean/US Gulf Coast 38-40 117 92 147 55
NW Europe/USEC - USGC 33-37 92 76 125 49
Mediterranean/Mediterranean 30-35 114 88 120 32
Mediterranean/North-West Europe 30-35 124 98 130 32
Source: Galbraith’s Tanker Market Report and Platt's.
42 June 2009
Oil Trade
USA
US net oil According to official data, US crude oil imports declined in May to average 8.98 mb/d, the
imports declined in lowest since October 2008 and about 8% or 740,000 b/d lower than the previous month and by
May by 7% on the almost the same percentage compared to May 2008. Including May’s crude imports the five-
back of a 0.74 mb/d month average for US imports in 2009 stands at about 9.38 mb/d, about 4%, or 380,000 b/d
drop in crude imports lower compared to the same period in 2008.
Graph 33: USA's imports of crude and petroleum products

tb/d tb/d
6000 12000
5000 10000
4000 8000
3000 6000
2000 4000
1000 2000
0 0
Aug 08
Sep 08
Nov 08
Dec 08
Oct 08
Apr 09
Jul 08
Feb 09
Mar 09
May 08
May 09
Jun 08
Jan 09
Others* Propane/Propylene Gasoline Jet Fuel/Kerosene Fuel Oil Crude (RHS)
*Others: Contains Natural Gas Liquids, Liquefied Refinery Gases (LRG's), Other Liquids and all
Finished Petroleum Products except Gasoline, Jet Fuel/Kerosene, Fuel Oil and Propane/Propylene.
In contrast, US product imports increased by 2%, in May or 46,000 b/d compared to the
previous month to average 2.8 mb/d, about 13% lower than in the same month last year.
Finished motor gasoline imports increased in May by 68,000 b/d or 31% compared to the
previous month to reach 287,000 b/d. May’s finished motor gasoline imports were lower by
43% compared to a year ago and average imports during the first four months of 2009 were 25%
lower compared to the same period last year. Distillate fuel oil imports also increased in May by
38,000 b/d or 24% compared to the previous month to average 194,000 b/d. This level of
imports indicates a 3% increase compared to the same month last year. Average distillate fuel oil
imports during the first five months of 2009 were 6% higher compared to the same period last
year. Residual fuel oil imports in May were almost steady compared to the previous month at
391,000 b/d, but were 12% higher than in the same month last year. Average residual fuel oil
imports during the first five months of 2009 were at 394,000 b/d about 6% higher than at the
same period last year. Jet fuel imports in May averaged 97,000 b/d, up from 88,000 b/d in the
previous month and 31% lower than the same month last year.
On the export side, US product exports increased in May for the fifth month in a raw to average
1.85 mb/d, about 68,000 b/d, or 4% higher compared to the previous month and 3% higher
compared to their levels a year earlier. US product exports during the first five months of 2009
averaged 1.67 mb/d, 7% lower compared to the same period in 2008.
June 2009 43
Graph 34: USA's exports of crude and petroleum products

tb/d tb/d
2500 250
2000 200
1500 150
1000 100
500 50
0 0
Oct 08
Apr 09
Feb 09
Mar 09
May 08
Jul 08
May 09
Jun 08
Jan 09
Aug 08
Sep 08
Nov 08
Dec 08
Others* Propane/Propylene Gasoline Jet Fuel/Kerosene Fuel Oil Crude (RHS)
Others: Contains Natural Gas Liquids, Liquefied Refinery Gases (LRG's), Other Liquids and all
Finished Petroleum Products except Gasoline, Jet Fuel/Kerosene, Fuel Oil and Propane/Propylene.
As a result, US net oil imports declined in May by 7% compared to the previous month to reach
about 9.91 mb/d. The 762,000 b/d decline in net oil imports in May came as a result of 740,000
b/d drops in net crude oil imports and 22,000 b/d declines in net product imports compared
to the previous month. May’s net oil imports were 10% lower compared to at a year earlier and
average net oil imports during the first five months of 2009 were 4% lower compared to the
same period last year
Table 23: USA crude and product net imports/(exports), tb/d

Change
Crude oil 9,297 9,690 8,950 -740
Total products 1,457 979 957 -22
Total crude and products 10,754 10,669 9,907 -762
Canada was the top crude oil supplier to the US in March 2009 with a share of 19.5%, down
from 20.8% in the previous month, followed by Mexico with 11.6%, down from 13.2% in the
previous month. Venezuela and Saudi Arabia came next with 10.1% and 10% respectively.
Altogether OPEC Member Countries supplied 50% of total US crude oil imports in March, up
from 48.7% in the previous month. For product imports, once again Canada was the top product
supplier to the US in March with a share of 19.6%, down from 20.2% in the previous month.
Russia was next with a share of 14.2%, up from 11.6% in the previous month, followed by the
Virgin Islands and Algeria with 8.7% and 8.1% respectively. For OPEC Member Countries, in
addition to Algeria, Venezuela supplied 5.1% of total US oil product imports in March, down
from 6% in the previous month, followed by Nigeria with 1%. Altogether OPEC Member
Countries supplied 16.4% of US product imports in March, up from 15.8 in the previous month.
For US product exports, Mexico was the top importer in March with a share of 13%, down from
13.8% in the previous month. Netherlands was next with 12%, up from 9.6%, then Singapore
with 9.6%. Altogether OPEC Member Countries imported 4% of total US product exports in
March, up from 2.8% in the previous month. Ecuador imported 1.9% and Venezuela 1.4%.
44 June 2009
Japan
Japan’s crude oil Japan’s crude oil imports averaged 3.53 mb/d in April, about 265,000 b/d or 7% lower compared
imports were 1.0 mb/d to the previous month according to Japanese data. April’s crude oil imports indicate a drop of
lower and net oil slightly more than 1.0 mb/d or 23% compared to the same month a year earlier. It was the
imports declined by seventh month in a row that Japan’s crude oil imports indicate a decline on a year-to-year basis.
1.2 mb/d in April At the same time, Japan’s average crude oil imports for the first four months of 2009 reached
3.87 mb/d, a decline of 10% or 425,000 b/d compared to the country’s imports during the same
period a year earlier.
Similarly, Japan’s product imports declined in April by 116,000 b/d or 16% compared to the
previous month to average about 0.89 mb/d, displaying an annual decline of 24% compared to
the same month last year. Japan mainly imports three products – naphtha, LPG and fuel oil.
These accounted for about 99% of its total monthly product imports in April. Average naphtha
imports in April were about 481,000 b/d, a decline of 13% or 69,000 b/d than the previous
month and 19% lower compared to a year earlier. Average naphtha imports for the first four
months of 2009 were 22% lower compared to the same period in 2008. LPG imports in April
averaged 358,000 b/d, indicating a 12% or 50,000 b/d decline compared to the previous month
and a 21% decline compared to a year ago. Average LPG imports for the first four months of
2009 were 16% lower compared to the same period in 2008. Fuel oil imports in April reached
42,000 b/d, almost steady compared to the previous month, but 61% lower from a year ago.
Average fuel oil imports for the first four months of 2009 were 54% lower compared to the same
period a year earlier. Japan imported about 5,000 b/d of gasoline in April compared to 28,000
b/d in the previous month. Naphtha imports counted for 54% of Japan’s total product imports in
April, LPG for 40% and fuel oil about 5%. Japan’s average product imports in the first four
months of 2009 averaged 0.94 mb/d, indicating a decline of 163,000 b/d or 15% compared to
average product imports during the same period in 2008.
Graph 35: Japan's imports of crude and petroleum products
tb/d tb/d
1300 6000
1100 5000
900
4000
700
3000
500
2000
300
100 1000
Apr 08
Oct 08
Apr 09
Mar 09
Jul 08
Feb 09
May 08
Jun 08
Jan 09
Aug 08
Sep 08
Nov 08
Dec 08
-100 0
Others* LP G Naphtha Fuel Oil Crude (RHS)
*Others: Contains Gasoline, Jet Fuel, Kerosene, Gasoil, Asphalt and Paraffin Wax.
On the export side, Japan’s product exports in April were 61,000 b/d or 10% lower than the
previous month and down 12% compared to a year ago to average 563,000 b/d. The country’s
main product exports – gasoil, fuel oil and jet fuel accounted for 93% of the country’s total
product exports in April. Gasoil exports were 159,000 b/d, down by 31% or 72,000 b/d
compared to the previous month and by 29% from a year ago. Average gasoil exports during the
first four months of 2009 stood 229,000 b/d, about 8% higher than the same period the year
before. Jet fuel exports averaged 184,000 b/d in April, 23% higher compared to the previous
month, yet declined 9% from a year earlier. During the first four months of 2009, Japan’s jet
fuel exports averaged 136,000 b/d compared to 184,000 b/d during the same period in 2008.
Fuel oil exports in April were at 180,000 b/d, a decline of 14% compared to the previous month
and steady from a year ago. Fuel oil exports averaged 189,000 b/d in the first four months of
June 2009 45
2009, compared to 164,000 b/d in the same period last year. Jet fuel exports accounted for 33%
of Japan’s total product exports in April while fuel oil represented 32% and gasoil 28%. Japan
exported lower quantities of gasoline, lubricating oil, asphalt and LPG in April, totaling
39,000 b/d. Product exports in the first four months of 2009 averaged 0.59 mb/d, steady
compared to the same period in 2008.
Graph 36: Japan's exports of petroleum products

tb/d tb/d
900 900
800 800
700 700
600 600
500 500
400 400
300 300
200 200
100 100
0 0
Aug 08
Sep 08
Nov 08
Dec 08
Apr 08
Oct 08
Apr 09
Jul 08
Feb 09
Mar 09
May 08
Jun 08
Jan 09
Others* Jet Fuel Gasoil Fuel Oil
*Others: Contains LPG, Gasoline, Naphtha, Kerosene, Lubricating Oil, Asphalt and Paraffin Wax.
As a result, Japan’s net oil imports in April stood at 3.85 mb/d, indicating a decline of
370,000 b/d or 9% compared to the previous month and 24% lower from a year earlier. Net
crude imports fell 265,000 b/d while net product imports dropped 105,000 b/d. Net oil imports
over the first four months of 2009 averaged 4.22 mb/d, 12% lower compared to the same period
in 2008.
Table 24: Japan's crude and product net imports/(exports), tb/d

Change
Feb 09 Mar 09 Apr 09 Apr/Mar
Crude oil 4,392 3,792 3,526 -265
Total products 396 430 326 -105
Total crude and products 4,789 4,222 3,852 -370
Saudi Arabia was Japan’s top crude oil supplier in April, supplying 28.8% of Japan’s total crude
oil imports, down from 32.3% the previous month. UAE supplied 21%, up from 20.2% the
previous month. Qatar contributed 13.7%, up from 12.4% the previous month, while Iran’s share
was 11.1%, down from 12.5% the previous month. OPEC Member Countries supplied 88.6% of
crude oil imports in April, up from 88.3% the previous month. Top non-OPEC crude oil
suppliers in April included Russia with 3.8% and Oman with 2.3%. On the products side,
preliminary data indicated that the UAE was Japan’s top supplier in April with 14.2%, followed
by Saudi Arabia with 13.8% and Kuwait with 9.7%. Altogether, OPEC Member Countries
supplied 47.8% of product imports in April, up from 46.9% the previous month. Top non-OPEC
product suppliers in April included South Korea with 13.3%, followed by the US with 12.1%
and Australia with 3.8%.
China
China’s net oil China’s crude oil imports increased for the third month in a row in April to reach 3.95 mb/d,
imports in April according to Chinese official data. This represents an increase of 2% or 87,000 b/d higher over
increased 4% over the the previous month and 14% higher compared to the same month a year ago. China’s crude oil
previous month imports were the highest since April 2008. Average crude oil imports for the first four months of
2009 stood at 3.49 mb/d, a decrease of 166,000 b/d or 5% lower compared to the same period
last year.
46 June 2009
Similarly, China’s product imports were higher in April, averaging 1.24 mb/d, indicating an
increase of 194,000 b/d or 19% compared to the previous month and 16% compared to a year
earlier. Jet fuel imports in April were about 121,000 b/d, up from 99,000 b/d the previous month.
South Korea supplied more than half of China’s jet fuel imports in April and Japan about one
quarter. China imported about 5% less jet fuel during the first four months of 2009 compared to
the same period last year. Naphtha imports in April were about 48,000 b/d, up from 40,000 b/d
in the previous month. South Korea and Singapore were China’s main suppliers of naphtha in
April. China imported an average of 51,000 b/d of naphtha during the first four months of 2009
compared to only 8,000 b/d during the same period last year. Gasoil imports in April averaged
48,000 b/d, down from 58,000 b/d in the previous month. Gasoil imports during the first four
months of 2009 averaged 40,000 b/d, substantially lower than the 136,000 b/d seen during the
same period last year which witnessed a surge in gasoil imports in preparation for the Olympics.
Graph 37: China's imports of crude and petroleum products

tb/d tb/d
1800 4500
1600 4000
1400 3500
1200 3000
1000 2500
800 2000
600 1500
400 1000
200 500
0 0
Apr 08
Oct 08
Apr 09
Feb 09
Mar 09
May 08
Jul 08
Jun 08
Jan 09
Aug 08
Sep 08
Nov 08
Dec 08
Others LPG Naphtha Gasoline Jet Fuel Gasoil Fuel oil Asphalt Crude [RHS]
China’s fuel oil imports increased in April to average 621,000 b/d, about 66,000 b/d or 12%
higher than in the previous month. Venezuela, South Korea and Russia were China’s top fuel
suppliers. Imports of fuel oil during the first four months of 2009 were 16% higher compared to
the same period last year. Imports of LPG in April averaged 185,000 b/d, up from 114,000 b/d in
the previous month. Iran, Nigeria and the UAE were China’s top LPG suppliers in April. For the
first four months of 2009, China imported an average of 151,000 b/d of naphtha, 80% higher
than at the same period last year. Altogether, China imported an average of 1.04 mb/d of
products in the first four months of 2009, indicating annual growth of 11% over the same period
last year. In April, fuel oil imports accounted for 50% of China’s total product imports, LPG
15% and jet fuel 10% while gasoil and naphtha represented 4% each.
On the export side, China’s crude oil exports in April were at 88,000 b/d compared to
112,000 b/d in the previous month. For the first four months of 2009, China exported an average
of 116,000 b/d of crude oil compared to 49,000 b/d during the same period a year ago. In
contrast, China’s product exports were 0.58 mb/d, an increase of 24% compared to the previous
month and 58% higher than the same month last year. Apart from LPG, exports of all major
products were higher in April compared to March. Average product exports for the first four
months of 2009 were about 0.49 mb/d, indicating an increase of 36% compared to the same
period last year.
June 2009 47
Graph 38: China's exports of crude and petroleum products

tb/d tb/d
600 600
500 500
400 400
300 300
200 200
100 100
0 0
Aug 08
Sep 08
Nov 08
Dec 08
Apr 08
Oct 08
Apr 09
Jul 08
Feb 09
Mar 09
May 08
Jun 08
Jan 09
Others LPG Naphtha Gasoline Jet Fuel Gasoil Fuel oil Asphalt Crude [RHS]
Fuel oil exports in April were at 177,000 b/d, about 15% higher than in the previous month.
Panama and Hong Kong were China’s main fuel oil importers in April. Fuel oil exports
increased by 21% during the first four months of 2009 compared to the same period in 2008.
Exports of jet fuel were at 143,000 b/d, up from 104,000 b/d in the previous month. Hong Kong
and the US were China’s main jet fuel importers in April. Gasoline exports were at 88,000 b/d in
April, up from 35,000 b/d in the previous month. Indonesia and Singapore were China’s main
gasoline importers in April. Gasoline exports had more than doubled during the first four months
of 2009 compared to the same period in 2008. For the second month in a row, there were no
naphtha exports in April. Gasoil exports were at 127,000 b/d, up from 100,000 b/d in the
previous month. The main importers of China’s gasoil in April were Vietnam and Singapore.
China exported 26,000 b/d of LPG in April, down from 28,000 b/d in the previous month, while
Vietnam and Hong Kong were the top importers. Fuel oil exports accounted for 30% of China’s
total product exports in April, jet fuel 25%, gasoil 22%, gasoline 15% and LPG 4%.
With net crude oil imports of 3.86 mb/d and net product imports of 0.66 mb/d, China’s net oil
imports in April were at 4.52 mb/d, indicating an increase of 4% or 192,000 b/d over the
previous month and about 10% compared to the same period last year. Average net crude oil
imports for the first four months of 2009 were at 3.92 mb/d, a decline of 6% or 259,000 b/d from
the same period last year.
Table 25: China's crude and product net imports/(exports), tb/d

Change
Crude oil 2,909 3,752 3,864 112
Total products 637 574 654 80
Total crude and products 3,546 4,326 4,518 192
Saudi Arabia remained China’s top crude oil supplier in April with a share of 23%, up from
15.2% in the previous month. Iran was next with 13.6%, up from 11.8%. Angola’s share of
China’s total crude oil imports in April was 9.4%, down from 14.1% the month before.
Altogether, OPEC Member Countries supplied 63.6% of China’s crude oil imports in March, up
from 55.7%. Top non-OPEC crude oil suppliers in March included Russia with 7.6%, Sudan
with 7.5% and Oman with 7.1%.
48 June 2009
India
India’s net oil imports According to preliminary data, India’s crude oil imports declined in April by 390,000 or 14%
increased by 8% in compared to the previous month to stand at 2.37 mb/d, the lowest monthly average since
April backed by a October 2007. April’s crude imports also fell 325,000 b/d lower to the same month last year.
surge in net products India’s crude oil imports during the first four months of 2009 averaged 2.52 mb/d, almost steady
imports compared to the same period in 2008.
Graph 39: India's imports of crude and petroleum products

tb/d tb/d
800 3,000
700
2,500
600
2,000
500
400 1,500
300
1,000
200
500
100
0 0
Apr 08
Oct 08
Apr 09
Jul 08
Feb 09
Mar 09
May 08
Jun 08
Jan 09
Aug 08
Sep 08
Nov 08
Dec 08
Others LPG Naphtha Gasoline Kerosene Gasoil Fuel Oil Crude [RHS]
In contrast, India’s product imports surged in April by 256,000 b/d or 90% compared to the
previous month to average 0.54 mb/d, yet were 5% lower compared to the same month a year
ago. Apart from kerosene and LPG, imports of all major products increased. Gasoil imports in
April surged to an all-time record of 268,000 b/d, an increase of 223,000 b/d compared to the
previous month and 62% higher compared to the same month last year. Gasoline imports stood
at 27,000 b/d in April compared to only 7000 b/d in March and 23,000 b/d in April 2008. LPG
imports averaged about 62,000 b/d, steady compared to the previous month, but 24% lower
compared to April 2008. Naphtha imports averaged 72,000 b/d in April, up from 55,000 b/d in
the previous month and down from 140,000 b/d in the same month a year ago. Fuel oil imports
averaged 25,000 b/d compared to 19,000 b/d in the previous month and 30,000 b/d in April
2008. Kerosene imports were about 10,000 b/d compared to 19,000 b/d in the previous month
and 55,000 b/d in the same month a year ago. For the first four months of 2009, product imports
averaged 0.37 mb/d, indicating a decline of 140,000 b/d or 28% compared to the same period
last year.
Table 26: India's crude and product net imports/(exports), tb/d

Change
Crude oil 2,469 2,764 2,372 -392
Total products -260 -487 85 573
Total crude and products 2,209 2,277 2,458 181
June 2009 49
On the export side, India’s total product exports of 454,000 b/d in April were a substantial
decline of 317,000 b/d or 41% compared to the previous month and 33% lower compared to a
year earlier. Exports of all major products fell in April without exception. Fuel oil exports in
April averaged 26,000 b/d, down from 82,000 b/d in the previous month. Jet fuel exports were at
53,000 b/d in April, down from 89,000 b/d in the previous month. Gasoil exports averaged
194,000 b/d, 39% lower than the previous month and 26% lower than a year earlier. Gasoline
exports declined in April to average 62,000 b/d, about half the level seen in the previous month
and a year ago. Naphtha exports were 131,000 b/d in April, compared to 158,000 b/d in the
previous month and 207,000 b/d a year earlier. For the first four months of 2009, product
exports averaged 0.64 mb/d, down by 146,000 b/d, or 19% compared to the same period last
year.
As a result, India’s net oil imports in April averaged 2.46 mb/d, displaying an increase of 8% or
181,000 b/d compared to the previous month, but were 5% lower compared to the same month
last year. The increase in net oil imports is attributed to higher net product imports which more
than offset lower net crude oil imports. India’s net oil imports for the first four months of 2009
averaged 2.25 mb/d, steady compared to the same period last year.
Graph 40: India's exports of petroleum products

tb/d tb/d
1000 1000
900 900
800 800
700 700
600 600
500 500
400 400
300 300
200 200
100 100
0 0
Aug 08
Sep 08
Nov 08
Dec 08
Apr 08
Oct 08
Apr 09
Jul 08
Feb 09
Mar 09
May 08
Jun 08
Jan 09
Others Naphtha Gasoline Jet Fuel Gasoil Fuel Oil
FSU net exports of crude and products

FSU crude oil exports According to preliminary data, FSU crude oil exports increased marginally in April by
were marginally 36,000 b/d, or 0.5% compared to the previous month to average 6.63 mb/d. Russian pipeline
higher in April while crude exports increased by 139,000 b/d or 4% compared to a month earlier. This is attributed to
product exports the 73,000 b/d and 65,000 b/d increases of exports through the Baltic and Black Sea
increased by 2% respectively, while exports through Druzhba declined by 19,000 b/d, all compared to the
supported by higher previous month. Russian crude oil exports by rail declined by about 3%, or 16,000 b/d in April
fuel oil exports compared to the previous month averaging about 586,000 b/d. Exports through CPC and BTC
pipelines in April were at 739,000 b/d and 706,000 b/d, indicating monthly declines of 3% and
4% respectively compared to the previous month. Caspian crude oil exports averaged 261,000
b/d in April, indicating a decline of 39,000 b/d compared to the previous month. On a year-to-
year basis, FSU crude exports were about 198,000 b/d or 3% higher in April compared to the
same month a year earlier.
FSU oil product exports increased in April by 55,000 b/d, or 2% compared to the previous
month to average 2.9 mb/d. Gasoil exports were at 0.87 mb/d, about 41,000 b/d higher compared
to the previous month and fuel oil exports increased by 122,000 b/d, to average 1.14 mb/d.
Exports of vacuum gasoil (VGO) and Naphtha declined by 99,000 b/d and 17,000 b/d
respectively compared to the previous month. FSU product exports in April were 14% or
50 June 2009
417,000 b/d lower than in the same month last year.
In total, FSU crude oil and product exports averaged 9.52 mb/d in April, indicating an increase
of 1%, or about 91,000 b/d compared to the previous month. April’s total exports were
219,000 b/d, or 2% lower than a year earlier.
Table 27: Recent FSU exports of crude and products by source, kb/d
2007 2008 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 Mar 09 Apr 09*
Crude
Russian pipeline
Black Sea 1,361 1,249 1,226 1,199 1,262 1,187 1,252
Baltic 1,631 1,559 1,539 1,490 1,518 1,590 1,663
Druzhba 1,122 1,098 1,034 1,089 1,139 1,095 1,076
Total** 4,114 3,906 3,817 3,779 3,918 3,896 4,035
Other routes
Russian rail 292 283 260 234 303 323 305
Russian - Far East 269 220 214 252 277 279 281
Kazak rail 17 17 17 17 18 17 18
CPC pipeline 692 675 632 732 757 763 739
Caspian 245 184 148 210 277 300 261
of which
Supsa (AIOC) - Georgia 0 13 0 45 99 96 83
Batumi - Georgia 138 101 81 99 95 120 97
Total*** 2,234 2,183 2,052 2,219 2,645 2,702 2,599
Total crude exports 6,348 6,089 5,869 5,998 6,563 6,598 6,634
Products
All routes
Fuel oil 1,052 1,069 1,232 1,041 964 1,017 1,138
Gasoil 777 810 757 849 1,039 906 866
Others 592 660 671 646 854 775 883
Total 2,421 2,539 2,661 2,536 2,857 2,698 2,887
Total oil exports 8,783 8,628 8,530 8,534 9,420 9,296 9,521
Source: Nefte Transport, Global Markets, Argus Fundamentals, Argus FSU, OPEC.
* Preliminary.
** Total incl. exports of minor volumes to China.
*** Total incl. BTC, Atasu-Alashankou and tanker shipments from Kaliningrad to Ventspils.
June 2009 51
Stock Movements
USA
US commercial crude US commercial oil inventories Graph 41: US weekly commercial crude oil inventories
oil stocks fell 11 mb, continued their upward trend, adding mb mb
representing the first 14.5 mb in May to stand at around 380 380
draw since August 1,102 mb resulting in an overhang of
360 360
98 mb with the five-year average. It is
worth mentioning that the overhang 340 340
has declined for the third consecutive 320 320
month, falling to 115 mb in March and 300 300
then to 105 mb in April.
280 Max-Min 04-08 280
The build of 14.5 mb came as a result 260 260
of a combination of a draw of 11.2 mb 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
in crude oil and a build of 25.7 mb in
products. The build in products came Avg. 04-08 2007 2008 2009
primarily from other products than

gasoline which dropped 9.2 mb and distillates which increased only 3.4 mb.
Crude oil stocks in May dropped for the first time in ten months, reversing the upward trend
which had pushed inventories to their highest level since mid-1990. However, even at 364 mb,
crude oil stocks remained high with an overhang of 37 mb or 11% with the average of the
previous five years and 62 mb or 20% with a year earlier. The draw which was in line with the
seasonal pattern, was driven by a strong decline in imports and an increase in refinery runs
following the return of some refineries from seasonal maintenance. In addition, the flattening
contango in the futures market also contributed to the draw in crude oil stocks.
Gasoline fell a further On the products side, gasoline Graph 42: US weekly forward cover (crude oil)
9.2 mb to move below inventories dropped for the second days days
the five-year average consecutive month despite an increase 28 28
while distillate stocks in production from refineries. With this
remained very high draw of 9.2 mb, driven by a clear 26 26
recovery in demand, gasoline stocks 24 24
are now around 203 mb, a decline of 22 22
6 mb below the average of the previous
five years. In contrast to gasoline, the 20 Max-Min 04-08
20
recession continued to support the 18 18
build in distillates which added 3.4 mb 16 16
to stand at a very high level of 150 mb, 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
implying an overhang of 34 mb or 29%
Avg. 2004-08 2007 2008 2009
with the five-year average as well as
with a year earlier. Following the same
trend, residual fuel oil stocks rose 3.9 mb to stand at 39.8 mb and jet fuel oil stocks increased
0.9 mb to 41.6 mb.
Table 28: US onland commercial petroleum stocks, mb

Change
Mar 09 Apr 09 May 09 May 09 /Apr 09 May 08 05 Jun 09 *
Crude oil 365.8 375.3 364.1 -11.2 302.8 361.6
Gasoline 216.7 212.4 203.2 -9.2 207.4 201.6
Distillate fuel 143.6 146.5 149.9 3.4 112.8 149.7
Residual fuel oil 39.0 35.9 39.8 3.9 40.6 39.3
Jet fuel 41.6 40.7 41.6 0.9 40.2 41.9
Total 1,082.2 1,087.4 1,101.9 14.5 969.1 1,100.9
SPR 712.8 718.7 721.7 3.0 704.3 721.7
*/ Latest available data at time of report’s release.
Source: US Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration.
52 June 2009
The Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) continued its upward trend, adding 3 mb to hit an all-
time high of 727 mb and approach maximum capacity. Almost 20 mb have been added to SPR
since the beginning of the year.
The latest data shows US commercial oil inventories dropped 1.7 mb to 1,101 mb in the week
ending 5 June as a result of a draw of 4.4 mb in crude oil and a build of 2.7 mb in products but
remaining very high with 110 mb above the seasonal level. The decline which left crude oil
stocks at 361.6 mb, implying an overhang of 37 mb or 12% with the five-year average, was
driven by lower imports. On the product side, gasoline stocks continued their downward trend
and fell 1.6 mb, dropping by almost 16 mb over seven consecutive weeks to stand at 201.6 mb,
the lowest since late November 2008 and showed a deficit of 8 mb or 4% with the average of the
previous five years. Again, the recent stock draw in gasoline is attributed to a recovery in
demand as well as lower imports. Distillate inventories fell 0.3 mb, the first draw since
mid-April, but remained very high at almost 150 mb, 30% above the seasonal average. Overall,
US commercial stocks remained high considering demand, with crude oil corresponding to 24.8
days of forward cover, 4 days over the seasonal average and distillate stocks representing 42
days, a surplus of almost 14 days. The exception is gasoline, which following the recent decline,
saw days of forward cover move below 22 days, implying a deficit of around half a day with the
five-year average.
Western Europe
European oil stocks Driven by lower demand from
Graph 43: EU-15 plus Norway's total oil stocks
increased 7 mb, in refineries, European (EU-15 plus mb mb
line with the seasonal Norway) oil inventories rose 7 mb in 1175 1175
build, to remain at the May to stand at nearly 1,153 mb,
upper end of the five- which corresponds to the upper end of 1150 1150
year range. the five-year range or 23 mb above the 1125 1125
five-year average. However, stocks are
much higher compared to a year 1100 1100
Max-Min 04-08
earlier, with a surplus of 34 mb over
1075 1075
the previous year. The surplus is due to
products as crude oil is in line with the 1050 1050
five-year average. Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Crude oil inventories rose 6.5 mb in Avg. 04-08 2008 2009
May, in line with the seasonal build to

remain at the five-year average of 489 mb and products rose a marginal 0.5 mb due to lower
production from refineries and lower demand but remained well above the seasonal average as
demand remained sluggish. However, the picture is mixed within products with gasoline
remaining below the five-year-range and distillates above. Gasoline stocks edged up 0.9 mb, the
first build in four months, to stand at 121.6 mb and narrowed the deficit with the five-year
average to around 8 mb or 6%. Distillate stocks dropped for the first time since last October to
stand slightly below 394 mb, down 1.1 mb from the previous month, but 26 mb higher than the
seasonal average, reflecting lower demand in both industrial and domestic sectors. Residual fuel
oil stocks rose 1.5 mb, offsetting the draw of the previous month, to stand at 117.5 mb, a decline
of almost 4 mb from a year ago. In contrast, naphtha stocks fell 0.9 mb to 30.8 mb but remained
3.5 mb higher than a year earlier.
Table 29: Western Europe's oil stocks, mb

Change
Mar 09 Apr 09 May 09 May 09/Apr 09 May 08
Crude oil 493.0 482.5 489.0 6.5 485.9
Mogas 123.9 120.6 121.6 0.9 129.1
Naphtha 31.7 31.7 30.8 -0.9 27.5
Middle distillates 394.2 394.8 393.8 -1.1 354.9
Fuel oils 117.5 116.0 117.5 1.5 121.4
Total products 667.3 663.1 663.6 0.5 632.8
Total 1,160.3 1,145.6 1,152.6 7.0 1,118.7
Source: Argus, Euroilstock.
June 2009 53
Japan
Japan’s commercial Japan’s total commercial oil stocks
Graph 44: Japan's commercial oil stocks
oil stocks fell a dropped a further 1.7 mb in April to mb mb
further 1.7 mb in stand at 175.6 mb but remained very 225 225
April but remained comfortable, above the year-ago level
high with preliminary and the five-year average. The draw is 210 210
data for May showing attributable to products as a result of 195 195
a build low production from refineries.
180 180
Crude oil inventories remained Max-Min 04-08
165 165
unchanged at 103 mb, in line with the
five-year average but were higher than 150 150
a year earlier. Nevertheless, Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
considering the weak demand, crude
Avg. 04-08 2008 2009
oil inventories remained high.
Product stocks fell for the second consecutive month but remained very comfortable. Naphtha
stocks were the main contributor to the draw with 3.1 mb, while gasoline remained unchanged at
15.5 mb and distillates edged up 0.7 mb to 29.1 mb. However, both gasoline and distillate stocks
were above the upper end of their respective five-year ranges. Residual fuel oil stocks also rose
0.7 mb to move above 17 mb.
Preliminary data for May shows a recovery in stocks which are estimated to have increased by
around 7 mb due essentially to products which continued to build amid a persistent decline in
demand.
Table 30: Japan's commercial oil stocks*, mb

Change
Feb 09 Mar 09 Apr 09 Apr 09/Mar 09 Apr 08
Crude oil 107.1 103.2 103.3 0.0 97.7
Gasoline 14.3 15.5 15.5 0.0 13.4
Naphtha 11.2 13.8 10.6 -3.1 11.4
Middle distillates 31.7 28.4 29.1 0.7 27.6
Residual fuel oil 18.4 16.5 17.1 0.7 19.0
Total products 75.6 74.1 72.4 -1.8 71.4
Total** 182.6 177.4 175.6 -1.7 169.1
* At end of month.
** Includes crude oil and main products only.
Source: METI, Japan.
54 June 2009
Balance of Supply and Demand

Estimate for 2008
Demand for OPEC Demand for OPEC crude in 2008 is estimated to average 30.8 mb/d, indicating a decline of
crude is estimated to 0.5 mb/d. This represents a downward revision from last month of around 0.2 mb/d due to a
decline 0.5 mb/d in downward adjustment in world oil demand. On a quarterly basis, demand for OPEC crude is
2008 estimated at 31.7 mb/d, 30.3, mb/d 30.8 mb/d and 30.4 mb/d respectively.
Table 31: Summarized supply/demand balance for 2008, mb/d

2007 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 2008
(a) World Oil Demand 85.86 86.61 85.17 84.91 84.99 85.41
Non-OPEC Supply 50.50 50.73 50.55 49.72 50.27 50.32
OPEC NGLs and non-conventionals 4.03 4.22 4.33 4.35 4.35 4.31
(b) Total Supply excluding OPEC Crude 54.53 54.95 54.88 54.07 54.63 54.63
Difference (a-b) 31.33 31.66 30.29 30.84 30.37 30.79

OPEC crude oil production 30.13 31.21 31.24 31.49 30.33 31.07
Balance -1.20 -0.45 0.95 0.65 -0.04 0.28
Forecast for 2009

Demand for OPEC Demand for OPEC crude has been revised down by 0.2 mb/d to reflect lower-than-expected
crude to drop growth in world oil demand. Required OPEC crude is now forecast at 28.6 mb/d, a decline of
significantly in 2009 2.2 mb/d from the estimated 2008 figure. In quarterly terms, demand for OPEC crude is now
by 2.2 mb/d expected at 28.6 mb/d, 28.0 mb/d, 28.7 mb/d and 29.0 mb/d respectively. Demand for OPEC
crude in the first quarter is estimated to show a strong decline of around 3.0 mb/d, while in the
second and third quarter, demand for OPEC crude is projected to fall by about 2.2 mb/d, before
dropping by only 1.3 mb/d in the fourth quarter.
Table 32: Summarized supply/demand balance for 2009, mb/d

2008 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 2009
(a) World Oil Demand 85.41 83.84 83.02 83.69 84.62 83.80
Non-OPEC Supply 50.32 50.71 50.38 50.28 50.73 50.52
OPEC NGLs and non-conventionals 4.31 4.52 4.59 4.72 4.86 4.68
(b) Total Supply excluding OPEC Crude 54.63 55.23 54.97 55.01 55.59 55.20
Difference (a-b) 30.79 28.62 28.05 28.68 29.03 28.60

OPEC crude oil production 31.07 28.32
Balance 0.28 -0.30
Graph 45: Balance of supply and demand

mb/d mb/d
34 34
33 33
32 32
31 31
30 30
29 29
28 28
27 27
1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09
OPEC Crude production Required OPEC Crude
June 2009 55
56
Table 33: World oil demand/supply balance, mb/d
2004 2005 2006 2007 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 2008 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 2009
World demand
OECD 49.4 49.8 49.6 49.2 48.9 47.2 46.6 47.0 47.4 46.5 44.9 44.9 46.2 45.6
North America 25.4 25.6 25.4 25.5 24.8 24.5 23.7 23.9 24.3 23.6 23.2 23.0 23.6 23.4
Western Europe 15.5 15.7 15.7 15.3 15.2 14.9 15.4 15.2 15.2 14.8 14.4 14.9 14.9 14.8
Pacific 8.5 8.6 8.5 8.3 8.9 7.8 7.5 7.9 8.0 8.1 7.3 7.1 7.7 7.5
DCs 21.8 22.6 23.3 24.2 24.8 25.2 25.2 25.0 25.1 25.0 25.3 25.5 25.4 25.3
FSU 3.8 3.9 4.0 4.0 4.1 3.7 4.2 4.4 4.1 3.9 3.7 4.2 4.4 4.0
Other Europe 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.8
China 6.5 6.7 7.2 7.6 8.0 8.2 8.1 7.7 8.0 7.7 8.2 8.3 7.8 8.0
(a) Total world demand 82.5 83.9 84.9 85.9 86.6 85.2 84.9 85.0 85.4 83.8 83.0 83.7 84.6 83.8
Non-OPEC supply
OECD 21.3 20.5 20.2 20.1 20.0 19.7 19.1 19.6 19.6 19.8 19.3 19.1 19.3 19.4
North America 14.6 14.1 14.2 14.3 14.2 14.1 13.6 13.8 13.9 14.2 13.9 13.9 14.0 14.0
Western Europe 6.2 5.7 5.4 5.2 5.2 5.0 4.8 5.1 5.0 5.0 4.7 4.5 4.7 4.7
Pacific 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6
DCs 11.6 11.9 12.0 12.0 12.2 12.2 12.2 12.3 12.2 12.4 12.5 12.7 12.8 12.6
FSU 11.1 11.5 12.0 12.5 12.6 12.7 12.5 12.5 12.6 12.6 12.7 12.5 12.7 12.6
Other Europe 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
China 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.8 3.9 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.9 3.9 3.8
Processing gains 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0
Total non-OPEC supply 49.6 49.6 50.0 50.5 50.7 50.5 49.7 50.3 50.3 50.7 50.4 50.3 50.7 50.5
OPEC NGLs + non-conventional oils 3.7 3.9 3.9 4.0 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.4 4.3 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.9 4.7
(b) Total non-OPEC supply and OPEC NGLs 53.3 53.5 53.9 54.5 55.0 54.9 54.1 54.6 54.6 55.2 55.0 55.0 55.6 55.2
OPEC crude oil production (secondary sources) 29.6 30.7 30.5 30.1 31.2 31.2 31.5 30.3 31.1 28.3
Total supply 82.9 84.2 84.4 84.7 86.2 86.1 85.6 85.0 85.7 83.5
Balance (stock change and miscellaneous) 0.4 0.3 -0.6 -1.2 -0.5 0.9 0.7 0.0 0.3 -0.3
OECD closing stock levels (mb )
Commercial 2538 2585 2666 2567 2572 2603 2659 2698 2698 2742
SPR 1450 1487 1499 1524 1527 1529 1522 1526 1526 1547
Total 3988 4072 4165 4091 4099 4132 4180 4224 4224 4289
Oil-on-water 905 958 916 942 929 929 898 928 928 920
Days of forward consumption in OECD
Commercial onland stocks 51 52 54 54 54 56 57 58 59 61
SPR 29 30 30 32 32 33 32 33 33 34
Total 80 82 85 86 87 89 89 91 93 95
Memo items
FSU net exports 7.3 7.7 8.0 8.5 8.5 8.9 8.2 8.1 8.4 8.7 9.0 8.3 8.3 8.6
(a) - (b) 29.2 30.4 31.1 31.3 31.7 30.3 30.8 30.4 30.8 28.6 28.0 28.7 29.0 28.6
Note: Totals may not add up due to independent rounding.
June 2009
Table 34: World oil demand/supply balance: changes from last month's table † , mb/d
2004 2005 2006 2007 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 2008 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 2009
June 2009
World demand
OECD - - - - - - - -0.3 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2
North America - - - - - - - -0.1 - -0.1 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1
Western Europe - - - - - - - -0.1 - 0.1 - - - -
Pacific - - - - - - - -0.1 - -0.2 - - -0.1 -0.1
DCs - - - - - - - - - 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1
FSU - - - - - - - - - -0.2 - - - -
Other Europe - - - -0.1 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 - -0.1 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 - -0.1
China - - - - - - - - - -0.1 0.1 0.1 - -
(a) Total world demand - - - - -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.2 -0.6 -0.3 - -0.1 -0.2
World demand growth 0.02 0.01 0.03 -0.09 -0.12 -0.07 -0.11 -0.27 -0.14 -0.40 -0.17 0.18 0.18 -0.05
Non-OPEC supply
OECD - - - - - - - - - 0.1 -0.1 - - -
North America - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Western Europe - - - - - - - - - - -0.1 - - -
Pacific - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DCs - - - - - - - - - -0.1 - - - -
FSU - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Other Europe - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
China - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Processing gains - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Total non-OPEC supply - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Total non-OPEC supply growth - - - - - - - - - - -0.04 - - -0.01
OPEC NGLs + non-conventionals - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
(b) Total non-OPEC supply and OPEC NGLs - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
OPEC crude oil production (secondary sources) - - - - - - - - - 0.1
Total supply - - - - - - - - - 0.1
Balance (stock change and miscellaneous) - - - - 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.7
OECD closing stock levels (mb )
Commercial - - - - - - 2 -6 -6 -
SPR - - - - - - - - - -
Total - - - - - - 2 -6 -6 -
Oil-on-water - - - - - - - - - -
Commercial onland stocks - - - - - - - - - -
SPR - - - - - - - - - -
Total - - - - - - - - - -
Memo items
FSU net exports - - - - - - - - - 0.2 - - - 0.1
(a) - (b) - - - - -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.2 -0.6 -0.2 - -0.1 -0.2
† This compares Table 33 in this issue of the MOMR with Table 33 in the May 2009 issue.
This table shows only where changes have occurred.
57
58
Table 35: OECD oil stocks and oil on water at the end of period
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 1Q05 2Q05 3Q05 4Q05 1Q06 2Q06 3Q06 4Q06 1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09
Closing stock levels mb
OECD onland commercial 2,538 2,585 2,666 2,567 2,698 2,533 2,612 2,627 2,585 2,585 2,648 2,760 2,666 2,597 2,656 2,649 2,567 2,572 2,603 2,659 2,698 2,742
North America 1,193 1,257 1,277 1,230 992 1,201 1,275 1,254 1,257 1,240 1,277 1,351 1,277 1,238 1,294 1,285 931 963 955 950 992 993
Western Europe 915 934 962 931 1,300 942 915 942 934 937 935 948 962 941 936 932 1229 1215 1240 1279 1300 1342
OECD Pacific 430 394 428 406 406 389 422 432 394 408 436 461 428 419 427 431 406 393 408 430 406 407
OECD SPR 1,450 1,487 1,499 1,524 1,526 1,462 1,494 1,494 1,487 1,487 1,493 1,495 1,499 1,507 1,506 1,520 1,524 1,527 1,529 1,522 1,526 1547
North America 678 687 691 699 416 690 698 696 687 688 690 690 691 691 692 695 421 421 417 414 416 424
Western Europe 377 407 412 421 704 376 401 405 407 407 411 412 412 415 413 423 699 702 708 704 704 715
OECD Pacific 396 393 396 404 406 396 395 393 393 392 393 393 396 401 401 403 404 404 404 403 406 408
OECD total 3,988 4,072 4,165 4,091 4,224 3,995 4,106 4,121 4,072 4,072 4,141 4,255 4,165 4,104 4,163 4,169 4,091 4,099 4,132 4,180 4,224 4289
Oil-on-water 905 958 916 942 928 934 931 926 958 962 971 972 916 914 905 923 942 929 929 898 928 920
OECD onland commercial 51 52 54 54 59 52 53 52 51 53 54 55 54 54 54 53 52 54 56 56 58 61
North America 47 49 50 51 42 47 50 49 50 49 50 53 50 49 51 50 38 39 40 39 42 43
Western Europe 58 60 63 61 88 61 58 60 58 61 60 60 63 63 61 60 80 81 81 84 88 93
OECD Pacific 50 46 51 51 54 48 52 49 42 52 55 52 48 53 54 49 46 50 54 54 50 56
OECD SPR 29 30 30 32 33 30 30 30 29 31 30 30 30 31 31 30 31 32 33 32 33 34
North America 27 27 27 29 18 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 17 17 18 17 17 18
Western Europe 24 26 27 28 48 25 26 26 25 27 26 26 27 28 27 27 46 47 46 46 47 49
OECD Pacific 46 46 47 50 54 49 49 45 42 50 49 45 44 51 51 46 46 52 54 51 50 57
OECD total 80 82 85 86 92 82 83 82 80 84 84 85 84 85 85 84 84 87 89 88 90 96
n.a. Not available.

June 2009
Table 36: Non-OPEC supply and OPEC natural gas liquids, mb/d
Change Change Change Change

2004 2005 2006 06/05 1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 2007 07/06 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 2008 08/07 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 2009 09/08
June 2009
USA 7.65 7.34 7.36 0.02 7.46 7.58 7.41 7.54 7.50 0.14 7.64 7.75 7.20 7.42 7.50 0.00 7.79 7.74 7.70 7.78 7.75 0.25
Canada 3.07 3.03 3.20 0.17 3.34 3.24 3.36 3.34 3.32 0.12 3.30 3.12 3.30 3.28 3.25 -0.07 3.31 3.19 3.27 3.37 3.29 0.04
Mexico 3.83 3.77 3.69 -0.08 3.58 3.59 3.45 3.33 3.49 -0.21 3.29 3.18 3.13 3.09 3.17 -0.31 3.04 2.98 2.96 2.87 2.96 -0.21
North America 14.56 14.14 14.24 0.11 14.38 14.41 14.22 14.20 14.30 0.06 14.22 14.05 13.63 13.80 13.92 -0.38 14.15 13.91 13.93 14.02 14.00 0.08
Norway 3.19 2.97 2.78 -0.19 2.72 2.46 2.48 2.57 2.56 -0.22 2.51 2.39 2.38 2.54 2.45 -0.10 2.52 2.29 2.19 2.35 2.34 -0.12
UK 2.10 1.89 1.71 -0.18 1.79 1.75 1.49 1.72 1.69 -0.02 1.69 1.64 1.41 1.55 1.57 -0.12 1.56 1.46 1.38 1.37 1.44 -0.13
Denmark 0.39 0.38 0.34 -0.04 0.31 0.31 0.30 0.31 0.31 -0.04 0.28 0.28 0.27 0.28 0.28 -0.02 0.28 0.27 0.23 0.25 0.26 -0.02
Other Western Europe 0.50 0.51 0.54 0.03 0.68 0.69 0.69 0.69 0.68 0.15 0.72 0.73 0.75 0.74 0.74 0.05 0.68 0.71 0.71 0.71 0.70 -0.04
Western Europe 6.18 5.74 5.37 -0.37 5.50 5.20 4.95 5.29 5.23 -0.13 5.20 5.04 4.82 5.12 5.04 -0.19 5.04 4.73 4.51 4.68 4.74 -0.31
Australia 0.52 0.53 0.51 -0.02 0.51 0.54 0.54 0.51 0.53 0.02 0.47 0.53 0.55 0.58 0.53 0.01 0.55 0.54 0.55 0.50 0.54 0.00
Other Pacific 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.00 0.06 0.06 0.09 0.11 0.08 0.03 0.11 0.10 0.10 0.09 0.10 0.02 0.09 0.11 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.00
OECD Pacific 0.57 0.58 0.56 -0.02 0.57 0.61 0.63 0.61 0.60 0.04 0.58 0.63 0.64 0.67 0.63 0.03 0.64 0.65 0.66 0.61 0.64 0.00
Total OECD 21.31 20.45 20.17 -0.28 20.45 20.22 19.79 20.11 20.14 -0.03 20.01 19.72 19.09 19.59 19.60 -0.54 19.83 19.28 19.09 19.30 19.37 -0.23
Brunei 0.21 0.21 0.22 0.01 0.20 0.18 0.19 0.19 0.19 -0.03 0.19 0.16 0.17 0.18 0.17 -0.02 0.17 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.17 0.00
India 0.79 0.76 0.79 0.03 0.82 0.81 0.81 0.82 0.82 0.02 0.83 0.81 0.82 0.83 0.82 0.01 0.80 0.80 0.84 0.84 0.82 0.00
Indonesia 1.15 1.12 1.07 -0.05 1.03 1.02 1.01 1.03 1.02 -0.04 1.05 1.04 1.04 1.03 1.04 0.02 1.02 1.04 1.08 1.08 1.06 0.02
Malaysia 0.79 0.77 0.76 -0.01 0.75 0.75 0.76 0.80 0.76 0.01 0.78 0.76 0.78 0.75 0.77 0.00 0.76 0.76 0.78 0.78 0.77 0.00
Thailand 0.25 0.30 0.32 0.02 0.33 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.02 0.34 0.35 0.36 0.36 0.35 0.02 0.36 0.37 0.37 0.37 0.37 0.02
Vietnam 0.42 0.39 0.37 -0.02 0.36 0.35 0.34 0.35 0.35 -0.02 0.34 0.31 0.29 0.31 0.31 -0.03 0.33 0.33 0.34 0.35 0.34 0.02
Asia others 0.18 0.26 0.26 0.01 0.27 0.27 0.27 0.26 0.27 0.00 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.29 0.28 0.01 0.28 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.01
Other Asia 3.81 3.80 3.79 -0.01 3.76 3.70 3.72 3.79 3.74 -0.05 3.80 3.71 3.73 3.75 3.75 0.01 3.72 3.76 3.88 3.89 3.81 0.06
Argentina 0.80 0.78 0.77 0.00 0.77 0.77 0.76 0.75 0.76 -0.01 0.77 0.77 0.76 0.75 0.76 0.00 0.76 0.76 0.75 0.74 0.75 -0.01
Brazil 1.80 1.98 2.11 0.12 2.15 2.15 2.16 2.14 2.15 0.04 2.23 2.28 2.31 2.29 2.28 0.13 2.43 2.40 2.52 2.54 2.47 0.20
Colombia 0.54 0.53 0.54 0.01 0.53 0.53 0.54 0.55 0.54 0.00 0.57 0.59 0.61 0.62 0.60 0.06 0.60 0.65 0.66 0.66 0.64 0.04
Trinidad & Tobago 0.16 0.18 0.18 0.00 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.15 0.16 -0.02 0.16 0.15 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.00 0.16 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.16 0.01
L. America others 0.26 0.30 0.26 -0.03 0.26 0.27 0.27 0.28 0.27 0.00 0.27 0.28 0.28 0.31 0.29 0.02 0.32 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.30 0.01
Latin America 3.55 3.77 3.86 0.09 3.88 3.88 3.88 3.88 3.88 0.02 4.00 4.06 4.12 4.14 4.08 0.20 4.27 4.26 4.37 4.39 4.32 0.24
Bahrain 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.00 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.00 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.00 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.00
Oman 0.79 0.78 0.75 -0.03 0.73 0.72 0.71 0.70 0.71 -0.03 0.72 0.74 0.76 0.75 0.74 0.03 0.76 0.78 0.79 0.79 0.78 0.04
Syria 0.49 0.45 0.44 -0.02 0.42 0.42 0.42 0.42 0.42 -0.02 0.41 0.41 0.40 0.39 0.40 -0.02 0.38 0.40 0.40 0.40 0.40 0.00
Yemen 0.41 0.41 0.37 -0.03 0.35 0.34 0.33 0.33 0.34 -0.04 0.31 0.31 0.30 0.29 0.30 -0.03 0.29 0.28 0.27 0.27 0.28 -0.03
Middle East 1.90 1.85 1.76 -0.09 1.69 1.69 1.66 1.65 1.67 -0.09 1.65 1.66 1.66 1.64 1.65 -0.02 1.63 1.67 1.67 1.67 1.66 0.00
Chad 0.16 0.18 0.16 -0.02 0.16 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 -0.01 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.00 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.13 0.13 -0.02
Congo 0.24 0.24 0.25 0.01 0.25 0.23 0.24 0.25 0.24 0.00 0.26 0.26 0.26 0.27 0.26 0.02 0.27 0.29 0.29 0.33 0.29 0.03
Egypt 0.71 0.70 0.67 -0.02 0.67 0.67 0.67 0.67 0.67 0.00 0.68 0.68 0.69 0.70 0.69 0.02 0.70 0.70 0.70 0.68 0.69 0.01
Equatorial Guinea 0.30 0.36 0.37 0.01 0.36 0.37 0.37 0.37 0.37 0.00 0.38 0.38 0.38 0.38 0.38 0.01 0.38 0.37 0.37 0.36 0.37 -0.01
Gabon 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.00 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.00 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.25 0.24 -0.01 0.26 0.24 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.01
South Africa 0.19 0.19 0.19 0.00 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.18 -0.01 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.17 -0.01 0.17 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16 -0.01
Sudan 0.30 0.34 0.40 0.06 0.50 0.50 0.48 0.51 0.50 0.10 0.50 0.49 0.47 0.44 0.48 -0.02 0.46 0.47 0.48 0.49 0.47 0.00
Africa other 0.21 0.25 0.32 0.07 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.37 0.35 0.03 0.38 0.38 0.38 0.38 0.38 0.03 0.38 0.41 0.41 0.41 0.40 0.03
Africa 2.36 2.52 2.60 0.09 2.71 2.69 2.68 2.75 2.71 0.11 2.75 2.75 2.74 2.73 2.75 0.04 2.74 2.77 2.79 2.82 2.78 0.03
Total DCs 11.63 11.93 12.02 0.09 12.03 11.96 11.94 12.07 12.00 -0.02 12.20 12.19 12.25 12.27 12.23 0.23 12.36 12.46 12.71 12.76 12.57 0.34
FSU 11.14 11.55 12.02 0.47 12.51 12.45 12.50 12.62 12.52 0.50 12.62 12.67 12.45 12.49 12.56 0.04 12.60 12.69 12.50 12.69 12.62 0.06
Russia 9.19 9.44 9.65 0.21 9.87 9.83 9.89 9.87 9.87 0.22 9.78 9.74 9.81 9.80 9.78 -0.08 9.77 9.72 9.66 9.64 9.70 -0.08
Kazakhstan 1.18 1.23 1.30 0.07 1.35 1.34 1.35 1.36 1.35 0.05 1.42 1.44 1.33 1.47 1.41 0.06 1.48 1.51 1.40 1.58 1.49 0.08
Azerbaijan 0.31 0.44 0.65 0.21 0.85 0.86 0.81 0.92 0.86 0.21 0.96 1.03 0.85 0.78 0.91 0.04 0.91 0.99 0.96 1.00 0.97 0.06
FSU others 0.47 0.44 0.42 -0.02 0.44 0.42 0.45 0.46 0.44 0.02 0.46 0.46 0.46 0.45 0.46 0.01 0.44 0.47 0.47 0.47 0.46 0.01
Other Europe 0.17 0.16 0.15 -0.01 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.14 0.15 -0.01 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.12 0.13 -0.02 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.00
China 3.50 3.64 3.69 0.06 3.78 3.82 3.73 3.75 3.77 0.07 3.82 3.88 3.85 3.85 3.85 0.08 3.80 3.84 3.88 3.86 3.85 0.00
Non-OPEC production 47.75 47.73 48.06 0.32 48.92 48.60 48.12 48.69 48.58 0.52 48.78 48.60 47.77 48.32 48.37 -0.21 48.72 48.39 48.30 48.75 48.54 0.17
Processing gains 1.83 1.86 1.90 0.04 1.92 1.92 1.92 1.93 1.92 0.02 1.95 1.95 1.95 1.95 1.95 0.03 1.98 1.98 1.98 1.98 1.98 0.03
Non-OPEC supply 49.58 49.59 49.96 0.36 50.84 50.52 50.04 50.62 50.50 0.54 50.73 50.55 49.72 50.27 50.32 -0.19 50.71 50.38 50.28 50.73 50.52 0.21
OPEC NGL 3.54 3.74 3.76 0.02 3.77 3.95 4.04 4.03 3.95 0.19 4.11 4.23 4.25 4.25 4.21 0.26 4.42 4.49 4.62 4.75 4.57 0.36
OPEC Non-conventional 0.17 0.16 0.14 -0.02 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.09 0.08 -0.05 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.02 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.00
OPEC (NGL+NCF) 3.71 3.89 3.89 0.00 3.85 4.03 4.13 4.12 4.03 0.14 4.22 4.33 4.35 4.35 4.31 0.28 4.52 4.59 4.72 4.86 4.68 0.36
Non-OPEC &
53.29 53.49 53.85 0.37 54.69 54.55 54.17 54.74 54.53 0.68 54.95 54.88 54.07 54.63 54.63 0.09 55.23 54.97 55.01 55.59 55.20 0.57
OPEC (NGL+NCF)
Notes: Totals may not add up due to independent rounding. Indonesia has been included in Non-OPEC supply for comparison purpose.
59
60
Table 37: World Rig Count
Change Change Change Change Change

2004 2005 05/04 1Q 06 2Q 06 3Q 06 4Q 06 2006 06/05 1Q 07 2Q 07 3Q 07 4Q 07 2007 07/06 1Q 08 2Q 08 3Q 08 4Q 08 2008 08/07 Mar 09 1Q 08 Apr 09 May 09 May/Apr
USA 1,190 1,378 188 1,519 1,632 1,719 1,719 1,648 270 1,733 1,757 1,788 1,790 1,767 119 1,770 1,864 1,978 1,898 1,878 111 1,105 1,326 995 918 -77
Canada 369 490 121 665 282 494 440 470 -20 532 139 348 356 344 -126 507 169 432 408 379 35 196 329 74 72 -2
Mexico 110 107 -3 85 85 77 84 83 -24 90 88 96 93 92 9 96 106 103 106 103 11 126 128 127 133 6
North America 1,669 1,975 306 2,269 1,999 2,290 2,243 2,200 225 2,355 1,984 2,232 2,240 2,203 3 2,373 2,139 2,512 2,411 2,359 156 1,427 1,782 1,196 1,123 -73
Norway 17 17 0 19 20 16 9 16 -1 16 19 18 17 18 2 17 21 21 21 20 2 24 25 22 16 -6
UK 16 21 5 29 27 26 15 24 3 25 29 27 22 26 2 19 21 24 24 22 -4 22 22 19 20 1
Western Europe 65 65 0 77 78 73 65 73 8 72 78 76 73 75 2 71 78 83 83 79 4 85 85 4 3 -1
OECD Pacific 22 25 3 25 28 25 28 27 2 24 30 32 30 29 2 32 39 39 34 36 7 29 29 32 32 0
Total OECD 1,755 2,065 310 2,371 2,105 2,389 2,336 2,300 235 2,450 2,091 2,340 2,342 2,306 6 2,476 2,256 2,634 2,529 2,474 168 1,652 1,970 1,416 1,336 -80
Other Asia 178 201 23 198 196 206 201 201 0 209 216 214 207 217 16 214 225 218 216 152 64 214 208 207 206 -1
Latin America 116 129 13 137 151 153 153 149 20 183 178 173 181 178 29 181 181 181 197 192 14 158 164 152 152 0
Middle East 70 72 2 72 79 82 85 80 8 82 85 87 86 85 5 89 91 93 90 91 6 85 86 85 85 0
Africa 51 54 3 59 62 68 77 67 13 75 80 88 88 83 16 84 90 97 94 91 8 86 88 86 84 -2
Total DCs 415 456 41 466 488 509 507 493 37 510 510 509 515 511 18 512 520 540 532 526 15 543 527 530 527 -3
Non-OPEC Rig Count 2,120 2,465 345 2,794 2,549 2,850 2,806 2,751 286 2,950 2,593 2,842 2,850 2,808 57 3,006 2,795 3,192 3,081 3,019 211 2,213 2,515 1,964 1,881 -83
0
Algeria 19 21 2 21 21 28 27 24 3 25 26 28 28 27 3 26 27 24 26 26 -1 25 24 32 28 -4
Angola 3 3 0 4 4 4 4 4 1 5 4 3 5 4 0 5 6 5 5 5 1 5 5 2 3 1
Ecuador 10 12 2 12 11 11 12 11 -1 12 10 11 10 11 0 7 9 12 13 10 -1 11 10 10 10 0
Iran 41 40 -1 40 45 47 45 44 4 51 51 51 50 50 6 50 50 50 51 50 0 52 51 52 52 0
Iraq na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na
Kuwait 10 12 11 12 13 14 15 14 15 14 13 13 11 12 13 12 11 12 12 12 0 13 12 11 13 2
Libya 10 9 -1 9 9 10 12 10 1 13 12 14 14 13 3 14 15 15 15 15 2 14 15 11 15 4
Nigeria 8 9 1 10 9 10 10 10 1 8 7 8 10 8 -2 9 8 6 6 7 -1 8 7 6 6 0
Qatar 9 12 3 13 10 11 9 11 -1 11 12 13 14 13 2 11 12 11 11 11 -2 9 9 8 9 1
Saudi Arabia 32 36 4 54 60 70 76 65 29 76 76 78 77 77 12 78 77 76 76 77 0 69 72 67 68 1
UAE 16 16 0 17 16 16 16 16 0 14 15 15 14 14 -2 12 12 13 12 12 -2 13 13 12 12 0
Venezuela 55 67 12 78 83 85 77 81 14 76 80 77 71 76 -5 82 81 77 81 80 4 63 69 65 66 1
OPEC Rig Count 213 237 24 270 281 306 303 290 53 305 306 311 304 305 15 306 308 301 308 305 0 282 286 276 282 6
0
Worldwid Rig Count* 2,333 2,702 369 3,064 2,830 3,156 3,109 3,041 339 3,255 2,899 3,153 3,154 3,113 72 3,312 3,103 3,493 3,389 3,324 211 2,495 2,801 2,240 2,163 -77
of which: 0
Oil 877 959 82 1,069 1,060 1,169 1,156 1,114 155 1,266 1,155 1,257 1,288 1,239 125 1,374 1,320 1,443 1436 1393 154 1071 1206 968 992 24
Gas 1,436 1,722 280 1,981 1,757 1,969 1,932 1,911 197 1,969 1,725 1,876 1,842 1,853 -67 1,904 1,752 2,014 1916 1896 35 1401 1567 1252 1254 2
Others 20 22 2 14 13 18 21 16 -6 20 19 20 24 21 5 34 31 36 37 35 14 23 28 21 21 0
*/Excludes China and FSU.

na - Not available.
Source: Baker Hughes International & Secretariat's Estimates.
Note: Totals may not add up due to independent rounding.
June 2009
Contributors to the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report

Editor-in-Chief
Hasan M. Qabazard, Director, Research Division
email: hqabazard@opec.org
Editor
Mohammad Alipour-Jeddi, Head, Petroleum Studies Department
email: majeddi@opec.org
Analysts
Crude Oil Price Movements Fayez Al-Nassar
and Oil Futures Market e-mail: fal-nassar@opec.org
Commodity Markets Dr. O. López-Gonzalez
e-mail:olopez@opec.org
Highlights of the World Economy Mohamed El-Shahati
email: melshahati@opec.org
Claude Clemenz
email: cclemenz@opec.org
Joerg Spitzy
email: jspitzy@opec.org
World Oil Demand Esam Al-Khalifa
email: ekhalifa@opec.org
World Oil Supply Haidar Khadadeh
email: hkhadadeh@opec.org
Product Markets and Refinery Safar Keramati
Operations email: skeramati@opec.org
The Tanker Market and Oil Trade Osam Abdul-Aziz
email: oabdul-aziz@opec.org
Stock Movements Brahim Aklil
email: baklil@opec.org
Technical and editorial team Aziz Yahyai
email: ayahyai@opec.org
Douglas Linton
email: dlinton@opec.org
Data services
Fuad Al-Zayer, Head Data Services Department (fzayer@opec.org)
Puguh Irawan (pirawan@opec.org), Ramadan Janan (rjanan@opec.org)
Monika Psenner (World Economy), Hannes Windholz (Oil Trade, Product & Refinery),
Pantelis Christodoulides (World Oil Demand, Stock Movements), Mouhamad Moudassir
(Tanker Market), Klaus Stoeger (World Oil Supply), Sheela Kriz (Crude Oil Prices),
Production, design and circulation

Viveca Hameder, Jennett Paulich, Andrea Birnbach, Gabriele Berger, Evelyn Oduro-Kwateng
Unless separately credited, material may be reproduced without permission, but kindly mention OPEC as source.
June 2009 61
Data Summary June 2009
OPEC Basket average price

US$ per barrel
up 6.78 in May May 2009 56.98

April 2009 50.20
Year-to-date 47.22
May OPEC production

in million barrels per day, according to secondary sources
up 0.13 in May May 2009 28.27

April 2009 28.14
World economy
Global economic growth for 2009 has been revised up by 0.1% to show a contraction of
1.3%. The major revisions were made in China and India, which are now expected to
grow by 7.0% and 5.7% respectively. The OECD remained unchanged at minus 3.8%.
Supply and demand

in million barrels per day
2008 2009
World demand 85.4 World demand 83.8
Non-OPEC supply 54.6 Non-OPEC supply 55.2
Difference 30.8 Difference 28.6
Non-OPEC supply includes OPEC NGLs and non-conventional oils.

Stocks
US oil stocks in May saw a build for the ninth consecutive month, increasing a
further 14.5 mb/d. The continued oversupply kept OECD commercial inventories
rising even higher to stand at 8 days above the five-year average in May.
Issued 12 June 2009. Data cover period up to the end of May 2009 unless otherwise stated.
Next report to be issued on 14 July 2009.

OPEC June Report

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OPEC

Monthly Oil Market Report

Oil market highlights 1

Obere Donaustrasse 93, A-1020 Vienna, Austria

Oil Market Highlights

Sustainability of current oil market sentiment

Sep08-Jan09 100 31.0

Crude Oil Price Movements

sentiment which raised optimism for a

African gasoline-rich crude ahead of

North Sea market

from 80¢ the week before. The market

Middle Eastern market

Table 1: OPEC Reference Basket and selected crudes, US$/b

Source: Platt's, Direct Communication and Secretariat's assessments.

The Oil Futures Market

The Forward Structure

Table 2: Monthly changes in selected commodity prices, 2008-2009

Graph 9: Major commodity price indexes, 2006-2009

Commodity Price Index, 2005 = 100

Investment flow into commodities

the total number of contracts. Jul 08

Total Agriculture Precious metals

Table 3: CFTC positions, '000 contracts

Agriculture OIV rose 5%

Nymex natural gas futures open interest volume experience a 5% rise to

Copper open interest volume increased

an important deceleration in prices. 40 40

Gold Industrial Metals Energy Crude Oil Livestock Agricultural

Table 4a: US commodity exchange traded products (ETP) - monthly flows

Highlights of the World Economy

Source: Institute for Supply Management

Former Soviet Union

The Ukraine economy is one of the worst-suffering in Europe. Ukraine is relying on a

OPEC Member Countries

Oil prices, the US dollar and inflation

World Oil Demand

Table 5: World oil demand forecast for 2008, mb/d

Totals may not add due to independent rounding.

World oil demand in 2009

Table 8: World oil demand forecast for 2009, mb/d

Totals may not add due to independent rounding.

OECD – North America

Table 11: Domestic sales of refined petroleum products in Mexico (tb/d)

Table 12: Japanese domestic sales, tb/d

Total Oil Gasoline Diesel Oil Fuel Oil

Oil consumption in selected Asian countries, y-o-y growth

Graph 16: Changes in Indian oil demand, y-o-y

Graph 17: Changes in Middle East oil demand, y-o-y

or 0.2 mb/d y-o-y in 2009.

Mar 09 Mar 08 Change (mb/d) Change (%)

Graph 20: Changes in Chinese apparent oil demand, y-o-y

World Oil Supply

Table 14: Non-OPEC oil supply in 2008, mb/d

Other Asia 3.74 3.80 3.71 3.73 3.75 3.75 0.01

FSU 12.52 12.62 12.67 12.45 12.49 12.56 0.04

Revisions to the 2008 estimate

Table 15: Non-OPEC oil supply in 2009, mb/d

FSU 12.56 12.60 12.69 12.50 12.69 12.62 0.06

OECD Pacific, while North America

mainly in the first quarter of 2009. The

Canada and Mexico

the annual level. India oil supply 11.50 11.50