Currencies Daily Report

Tuesday| August 27, 2013

Content
Overview US Dollar Euro GBP JPY Economic Indicators
Overview:

Research Team
Reena Rohit Chief Manager Non-Agri Commodities and Currencies Reena.rohit@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6134 Anish Vyas Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6104

Angel Broking Ltd. Registered Office: G-1, Ackruti Trade Centre, Rd. No. 7, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 093. Corporate Office: 6th Floor, Ackruti Star, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 093. Tel: (022) 2921 2000 Currency: INE231279838 / MCX Currency Sebi Regn No: INE261279838 / Member ID: 10500

Disclaimer: The information and opinions contained in the document have been compiled from sources believed to be reliable. The company d does oes not warrant its accuracy, completeness and correctness. The document is not, and should not be construed as an offer er to sell or solicitation to buy any commodities. This document may not be reproduced, distributed or published, in whole or in part, by any recipient hereof for any purpose without prior permission from Angel Broking Ltd. Your feedback is appreciated on currencies@angelbroking.com

www.angelbroking.com

Currencies Daily Report

Tuesday| August 27, 2013

Highlights
Asian markets opened on a negative note in todays trading session. US Core Durable Goods Orders declined by 0.6 percent in July. US Durable Goods Orders fell around 7.3 percent in last month. Asian markets are trading lower today on the back of more than expected fall in durable goods order data from US in yesterdays trading session. Further, tension between the US and Syria after statement from US Secretary of State John Kerry that President of Syria should hold government accountable for using chemical weapons acted as a negative factor. US Core Durable Goods Orders declined by 0.6 percent in July as against a fall of 0.1 percent in June. Durable Goods Orde Orders fell around 7.3 percent in last month from earlier rise of 3.9 percent a month ago.

Market Highlights (% change)

Last Prev. day

as on August 26, 2013 WoW MoM YoY

NIFTY SENSEX DJIA S&P FTSE KOSPI BOVESPA NIKKEI Nymex Crude (Aug13) - $/bbl Comex Gold (Aug13) - $/oz Comex Silver(Sept13) $/oz LME Copper (3 month) $/tonne** G-Sec -10 yr @7.8% - Yield

5476.5 18558.1 14946.46 1656.8 17463.5 1959.2 58497.8 14506.3 105.92 1393.00 23.73

0.1 0.2 -0.4 -0.4 0.7 -1.5 0.2 0.2 -0.5 -0.2 3.1

-7.3 -6.3 -0.4 -2.1 0.0 2.2 13.4 -0.1 -1.1 1.4 2.5

-7.3 -6.3 -3.7 -2.1 5.6 3.1 21.3 0.3 2.8 6.1 20.7

1.1 1.5 13.6 17.4 16.3 0.5 0.7 66.3 10.2 -16.6 -22.5

US Dollar Index
The US Dollar Index (DX) appreciated marginally around 0.1 percent in yesterdays trading session on the back of rise in risk aversion in global market sentiments which led to increase in demand for the low yielding currency. Further, unfavorable economic data from the US also supported an upside in the currency. However, sharp upside in currency was capped as unfavorable economic data from US showed signs gns of slow economic growth which increased the expectations that QE tapering from Federal Reserve will be delayed. The currency touched an intra-day day high of 81.56 and closed at 81.44 on Monday.

7353.00

0.8

0.6

-6.3

-4.0

102.09

0.0

17.6

9.7

2.7

Dollar/INR
The Indian Rupee depreciated around 1.7 percent in yesterdays trading session. The currency depreciated on the back of month end dollar demand from oil importers and companies. Further, concerns regarding Current Account Deficit (CAD) and economy growth of the country exerted downside pressure on the currency. Further, outflow of foreign funds from equities and debt acted as a negative factor. Also, Fitch credit rating agency has warned the Indian government that a downgrade is possible as investors confidence is low. Indias credit rating is just once ce notch above junk category. The currency touched an intra-day day low of 64.72 and closed at 64.29 on Monday. For the month of August 2013, FII outflows totaled at Rs.3018.30 crores th ($464.39 million) as on 26 August 2013. Year to date basis, net capital th inflows stood at Rs.63,074.10 crores ($12,021.40 million) till 26 August 2013. Outlook In todays session, we expect Rupee to trade on a negative note as a result of weak global and domestic market sentiments. ts. Further, strength in the DX will exert downside pressure on n the currency. Additionally, dollar demand from importers coupled with long term worries regarding the CAD and economic growth of the country will act as a negative factor.

Source: Reuters rd (** Prices as on 23 August LME markets were closed yesterday on eve of Summer Bank Holiday)

US Dollar (% change)
Last Prev. day WoW

as on August 26, 2013 MoM YoY

Dollar Index US $ / INR (Spot) US $ / INR Aug13 Futures (NSE) US $ / INR Aug13 Futures (MCX-SX)

81.44 64.29 64.47 64.46

0.1 -1.7 0.82 0.83

0.2 -1.8 9.15 9.14

-0.4 -9.1 9.15 9.14

2.5 -13.4 16.17 16.17

Technical Chart USD/INR

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Trend US Dollar/INR Aug13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Up

valid for August 27, 2013 Support 64.20/63.90 Resistance 64.70/64.90

www.angelbroking.com

Currencies Daily Report

Tuesday| August 27, 2013

Euro/INR
The Euro declined around 0.1 percent in the yesterdays trade taking cues from strength in the DX. Further, correction in the market sentiments was seen in later part of the trade which exerted downside pressure on the currency. 1.3368 on The Euro touched an intra-day low of 1.3355 and closed at 1.33 Monday. Outlook In today's session, we expect Euro to trade lower on the back of weak global market sentiments. Further, strength in the DX will exert downside pressure on the currency. However, sharp downside in the currency will be cushioned or reversal can be seen as a result of estimates of rise in German Ifo Business Climate data. Technical Outlook
Trend Euro/INR Aug13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways 86.0/85.80 86.60/86.90 valid for August 27, 2013 Support Resistance

Euro (% change)
Last Prev. day

as on August 26, 2013 WoW MoM YoY

Euro /$ (Spot) Euro / INR (Spot) Euro / INR July 13 Futures (NSE) Euro / INR July13 Futures (MCX-SX)

1.3368 85.94 85.4 85.4

-0.1 -1.6 -0.83 -0.86

0.3 -2.1 9.02 8.99

0.7 -9.8 9.02 8.99

7.0 -19.0 23.24 23.21

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Euro

Source: Telequote

GBP/INR
The Sterling Pound appreciated marginally around 0. 0.04 percent yesterday. However, , weak global market sentiments coupled with strength in the DX capped sharp gains in n the currency. Less volatility was observed in the currency as markets were closed yesterday on eve on Summer Bank Holiday. . The currency touched an intra-day high of 1.5611 and closed at 1.5574.on .on Monday. Outlook We expect Pound to trade on a negative note in today's trade on the back of strength in the DX. Additionally, weak global market sentiments will exert downside pressure on the currency. Technical Outlook
Trend GBP/INR Aug 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Up valid for August 27, 2013 Support 100.10/99.80 Resistance 100.70/101.0

GBP (% change)

as on August 26, 2013

Last

Prev. day

WoW

MoM

YoY

$ / GBP (Spot) GBP / INR (Spot) GBP / INR July13 Futures (NSE) GBP / INR July 13 Futures (MCX-SX)

1.5574 100.2 100.33

0.04 1.84 0.72

-0.5 1.43 10.28

1.2 10.30 10.28

-1.4 14.22 14.27

100.35

0.70

10.30

10.30

14.29

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Sterling Pound

Source: Telequote

www.angelbroking.com

Currencies Daily Report

Tuesday| August 27, 2013

JPY/INR
The Japanese Yen appreciated around 0.2 percent in the yesterdays trading session on the back of weak market sentiments which led to rise in demand for the low yielding currency. The currency touched an intra intraday high of 98.19 and closed at 98.50 against the dollar on Monday. Outlook We expect Yen to appreciate preciate in todays session on account of rise in risk aversion in global market sentiments which will lead to increase in demand for the currency. Technical Outlook
Trend JPY/INR Aug 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Up valid for August 27, 2013 Support 65.20/65.0 Resistance 65.70/65.90

JPY (% change)
Last Prev day

as on August 26, 2013 WoW MoM YoY

JPY / $ (Spot) JPY / INR (Spot) JPY 100 / INR July13 Futures (NSE) JPY 100 / INR July13 Futures (MCX-SX)

98.5 0.654 65.35 65.33

-0.2 2.15 1.15 1.09

1.0 1.13 9.11 9.06

-0.8 8.89 9.11 9.06

25.1 -7.30 -7.51 -7.56

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart JPY

Source: Telequote

Economic Indicators to be released on August 27, 2013

Indicator Country Time (IST) Actual Forecast Previous Impact

German Ifo Business Climate S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y CB Consumer Confidence

Euro US US

1:30pm 6:30pm 7:30pm

107.1 11.9% 79.6

106.2 12.2% 80.3

High Medium High

www.angelbroking.com