Turkmenistan: Protective, Effective, or Paranoid?

by Rockne Schaller

INTRODUCTION Welcome to the first leg of the heroin drug trade out of Afghanistan: Turkmenistan1. Since 2006, this country has been lead the seemingly benevolent and equally mysterious Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov2. Over the past 34 years, policy makers in Ashgabat have seen their share of political change with the dissolution of the Soviet Union and its own ability to survive in the midst of finding its own identity3. PRESIDENTIAL COUNTER DRUG POLICY Since 1979, the ever expanding Afghan drug trade has spread its tentacles far and wide and has left an established legacy of both micro and macro sized narco-terror criminal smuggling networks in its wake4. the State Service on Drugs of Turkmenistan was established on the initiative of the Turkmen leader. This year it was reorganized into the State Service on Security of Healthy Society5. Turkmenistan is no exception. The effective measures taken in the country to combat illicit traffic in narcotic drugs and detect and prevent drug addiction under the National Program for 2011-2015 to counter illicit drug trafficking and provide assistance to persons addicted to drugs and psychotropic substances6. PRESIDENTIAL COUNTER TERROR POLICY Since 2006, the Turkmenistan Department for the Prevention of Terrorism and Organized Crime within the Ministry of Internal Affairs has handled counter terror strike teams through the country7. The President has preferred an internally focused security platform but has also been quite amenable to international counterterrorism mission projects relative to his administration's ability to thwart terrorist activity on its own soil. The government cooperates with international organizations and partner

countries in conducting counterterrorism training exercises for government personnel, canine bomb detection, and professional courses on terrorism and security studies8. INTERNAL AND INTERNATIONAL PERSUASION In a larger perspective, Turkmenistan's ability to deal with both terrorism and the Afghan Drug trade is what is at stake. In terms of what it can effectively do in the war on drugs and terror, both the United Nations and The United States Drug Enforcement Agency (DEA) have increasingly engaged President Berdimuhamedov on this front with the creation of the State Service on Drugs of Turkmenistan8. The high-ranking UN official noted Turkmenistan's role as a strategic partner for the United Nations in the Central Asian region and highly rated the ongoing implementation of the Turkmenistan's national programme for 2011-2015 to counter illicit trafficking of narcotic and psychotropic substances and precursors and to provide assistance to drugs addicts9. In fact, Turkmenistan participates in two scheduled narcotics burns a year10. TURKMENISTAN SMUGGLING POINTS INBOUND OUTBOUND

NETWORK EMPHASIS & MOTIVE IRAN In terms of structural process, the Turkmenistan drug trade routes run northwest, and not surprisingly, southwest back into Iran where weapons and converted heroin are traded back along the Ashgabat

border areas11. Although Iran boasts of a large border wall along Afghanistan's border, It is not clear if such a barrier exists with Turkmenistan. It is more likely that the IRGC Quds Force Commanders are establishing Taliban based offices in the northeastern provincial capitals of Gachsar and Mashad in Northern Khorasan and Razari Khorasan while managing the illicit shipments for them12. Recent developments, with the aid of Qods Force officers General Hossein Musavi and Colonel Hasan Mortezavi, and Commander Gholamreza Baghbani are reinforcing Taliban activities within Iranian borders13. TURKMENISTAN Turkmenistan, for its part, appears to have one of the largest intelligence apparatus amongst Central Asian countries14. Unfortunately, despite international efforts to share information about their operations, little is known about who or whom may be behind the Turkmenistan leg of the Afghan Drug Routes to Russia and Europe15. According to similar reports about the Iranian intelligence services, Turkmenistan also appears be either solely aware of or to a great degree facilitating the heroin and poppy trade into and out of Iran along its border with Ashgabat or from the Caspian Sea16. This may be partly due to the legacy of the Soviet Union falling away and the newly created state apparatus was unable or not experienced enough to maintain a professional and well paid security force police or intelligence branch in Ashgabat. This cumulative effect most likely is what has seriously hindered efforts in Turkmenistan. It does not necessarily mean all government officials are corrupt but it definitely lends itself to people looking the other way at critical interdiction moments throughout the year in both the State Border Guard Service and the State Customs Service17. TURKMENISTAN: NARCO TERROR NETWORK INTELLIGENCE GAPS There are currently seven critical areas of concern that present Turkmenistan in a less than transparent light regarding counter terror and counter drug efforts. Lack of critical intelligence sharing with Afghanistan and to a lesser extent, Uzbekistan18 Trans-Caspian Sea Heroin Smuggling from Turkmenistan to the Caucasus region or Russia19. Internal Affairs investigations being conducted or divulged that actively pursue corrupt interdiction and security officials20. Iranian Inducements to create a permissive smuggling environment with Ashgabat21. The extent of terrorist group member employment within Turkmenistan both inbound and outbound22. Cost Benefit Analysis of Turkmenistan's Intelligence Objectives. The Cost of a Leader's Ego and Image outweighing the benefit of being an honest and fair international leader.

CONCLUSION President Berdimuhamedov is both politically and economically in control of the image of Turkmenistan to the outside world and to his citizenry. While he has incrementally introduced political mechanisms for a democratically run country. In an economic sense, he understands that his country is a strategic source of vast energy for China and other regional actors willing to pay for access to it. Proposed pipelines for oil and natural gas are openly pursued as well as his penchant for developing his beach vacation resorts along the Southeast Shores of the Caspian Sea. Despite the President's strength of will in these policies, truly critical issues within Turkmenistan such as counter drug and counter terror items, may expose him to political embarrassment and produce an image of intractable corruption. In a more perilous sense, the President also risks sanctions and penalties if it is found that he is empowering or enabling his Iranian neighbors to inflows of revenue from the Afghan drug trade. If international actors do uncover such activities, Ashgabat would be forced to either share internally sensitive intelligence sources for latitude for the price of pursuing such political miscalculations. SOURCE LIST 1. Chivers, CJ, "Heroin Seizes Turkmenistan, a Nation Ill Equipped to Cope," http://www.nytimes.com/2007/07/11/world/asia/11turkmen.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0# , July 7 2011

2. Chivers, CJ, "Heroin Seizes Turkmenistan, a Nation Ill Equipped to Cope," http://www.nytimes.com/2007/07/11/world/asia/11turkmen.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0# , July 7 2011 3. Chivers, CJ, "Heroin Seizes Turkmenistan, a Nation Ill Equipped to Cope," http://www.nytimes.com/2007/07/11/world/asia/11turkmen.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0# , July 7 2011 4. http://www.irinnews.org/indepthmain.aspx?reportid=63034&indepthid=21 5. http://www.irinnews.org/indepthmain.aspx?reportid=63034&indepthid=21 6. http://www.irinnews.org/indepthmain.aspx?reportid=63034&indepthid=21

7. http://www.refworld.org/cgibin/texis/vtx/rwmain?page=publisher&publisher=USDOS&type=&coi=TKM&docid=48196cc8b&skip=0 8. http://www.refworld.org/cgibin/texis/vtx/rwmain?page=publisher&publisher=USDOS&type=&coi=TKM&docid=48196cc8b&skip=0 9. http://www.refworld.org/cgibin/texis/vtx/rwmain?page=publisher&publisher=USDOS&type=&coi=TKM&docid=48196cc8b&skip=0

10. http://www.turkmenistanun.org/index.php/homepage/turkmenistan-united-nations/253president-of-turkmenidstan-and-executive-director-of-the-un-drugs-and-crime-office-discusscooperation 11. Roggio, William, " Iranian Qods Force commanders linked to Taliban: US Treasury," http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2010/08/iranian_qods_force_c.php#ixzz2cWTLwebS August 6 2010 12. Roggio, William, " Iranian Qods Force commanders linked to Taliban: US Treasury," http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2010/08/iranian_qods_force_c.php#ixzz2cWTLwebS August 6 2010 13. Roggio, William, " Iranian Qods Force commanders linked to Taliban: US Treasury," http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2010/08/iranian_qods_force_c.php#ixzz2cWTLwebS August 6 2010

14. Chivers, CJ, "Heroin Seizes Turkmenistan, a Nation Ill Equipped to Cope," http://www.nytimes.com/2007/07/11/world/asia/11turkmen.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0# , July 7 2011 15. Chivers, CJ, "Heroin Seizes Turkmenistan, a Nation Ill Equipped to Cope," http://www.nytimes.com/2007/07/11/world/asia/11turkmen.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0# , July 7 2011 16. Chivers, CJ, "Heroin Seizes Turkmenistan, a Nation Ill Equipped to Cope," http://www.nytimes.com/2007/07/11/world/asia/11turkmen.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0# , July 7 2011 17. http://turkmenistanembassy.org/2012/12/23/counter-drug-action/ 18. Opiate Flows through Northern Afghanistan and Central Asia: A threat Assessment 19. Opiate Flows through Northern Afghanistan and Central Asia: A threat Assessment 20. United Nations Office of Drugs and Crime, "Map 17: Main Drug Routes and Transportation Corridors In Turkmenistan," 21. United Nations Office of Drugs and Crime, "Map 17: Main Drug Routes and Transportation Corridors In Turkmenistan," 22. Opiate Flows through Northern Afghanistan and Central Asia: A threat Assessment