Commodities Daily Report

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Thursday| 22 Aug, 2013
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Agricultural Commodities

Content
News & Market Highlights Chana Oilseeds Edible Oils Spices Sugar Cotton Guar Complex

Research Team
Vedika Narvekar Chief Manager- Agri Commodities vedika.narvekar@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6130 Shruti Ghanekar Research Associate shruti.ghanekar@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6133 Anuj Choudhary Research Analyst anuj.choudhary@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6132

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Disclaimer: The information and opinions contained in the document have been compiled from sources believed to be reliable. The company does not warrant its accuracy, completeness and correctness. The document is not, and should not be construed as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any commodities. This document may not be reproduced, distributed or published, in whole or in part, by any recipient hereof for any purpose without prior permission from Angel Commodities Broking (P) Ltd. Your feedback is appreciated on commodities@angelbroking.com

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Commodities Daily Report

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Thursday| 22 Aug, 2013
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Agricultural Commodities
NEWS HIGHLIGHTS
Withdrawal of Special Margin in Chana contract
As per a circular by NCDEX dated August 21 2013, Special Margin of 5% on the Short side imposed earlier has been withdrawn in Chana with effect from beginning of day Friday, August 23, 2013. (Source: NCDEX)

Market Highlights (% change)

Last Prev. day

as on August 21, 2013

WoW MoM YoY

Fresh wet spell threatens urad crop

With rupee tumbling to a record low against dollar, prices of almost all the pulse seeds in Indore mandis hit the roof. This is because imported pulses have become costlier due to the weakening Indian currency. Though mandis in Madhya Pradesh and Indore remained closed on Wednesday on account of Raksha Bandhan, in private trading, chana, masoor and urad ruled higher with further fall in rupee against dollar. Amid higher demand and weak arrivals, urad prices in Indore have gone up by Rs 650 a quintal in the past fortnight. Fresh spell of rains have threatened the prospects of the urad crop. Fear of damage to crop and rise in dollar have made stockists go on buying spree, leading to sharp rise in its prices, said a trader. Rise in urad also lifted its dal with urad dal (medium) being quoted at Rs 4,400-4,500 a quintal (up Rs 100 from last week), urad dal (bold) Rs 4,800-4,900, while urad mongar Rs 6,200-6,300 (up Rs 200 from last week). (Source: Business Line)

Sensex Nifty INR/$ Nymex Crude Oil - $/bbl Comex Gold - $/oz

17906 5303 64.12 103.85 1370.6

-1.86 -1.83 1.57 -1.06 -0.18

-7.55 -7.66 4.62 -2.81 2.74

-11.14 -12.05 8.05 -3.89 5.98

0.12 -2.19 15.92 7.42 -16.42

.Source: Reuters

Onion prices jump to Rs 80/kg again; Nafed floats import tender

Cooperative major Nafed today floated a global tender for import of undisclosed quantity of onions from Pakistan, Iran, China and Egypt to boost domestic supply and curb prices, which have again risen to Rs 7080 per kg in most retail markets of the country. Retail prices jumped to Rs 70-80 per kg today, up by 10 per kg from yesterdays level. Wholesale prices too rose at the same pace to Rs 45-55 per kg in the national capital and other States. The wholesale price at Lasalgoan in Maharashtra Asias largest onion market today rose slightly to Rs 41.25/kg. Nafed is interested to import onions from Pakistan, Iran, China and Egypt. Interested parties having experience in importing onions may specify the quantity that can be offered and rates on cost and freight per tonne along with final rate per tonne in INR for delivery, the cooperative said.
(Source: Business Line)

Poultry feed could rise on costlier inputs

Following an uptrend in prices of key ingredients over the last couple of days, poultry feed products may turn dearer in the near future. Poultry feed prices stayed unchanged this week, despite an uptrend in prices of a few of its key ingredients, said trade expert Aditya Mishra. Following volatility in soyameal, feed prices have not been altered yet, he said. There is an uncertainty in the soyameal market and if soyameal moves up further, feed prices will increase, he said. Prices may increase by Rs 200300 for a tonne. In the physical market, after witnessing a fall last weekend, soyameal witnessed a good rally, improved by Rs 1,700 to Rs 33,900. Bajra improved further by Rs 80 to Rs 1,390 a quintal, while dicalcium phosphate improved by 10 paisa and sold at Rs 33.80 a kg. MBM went up by 30 paisa to 33.30 a kg, while maize moved up by Rs 20 to Rs 1,510 a quintal. Mustard de-oiled cake improved by Rs 200 and sold at Rs 14,200 a tonne, DRB improved by Rs 600 to Rs 11,200 while rice bran oil was at Rs 54 a kg. Broiler concentrate feed quoted at Rs 1,970 for a 50-kg bag, while broiler starter mash sold at Rs 1,480.Pre-lay mash sold at Rs 1,015, while layer grower mash quoted at Rs 955. (Source: Business Line)

Cotton yarn exports registration jumps 55% on huge Chinese demand

The registration for cotton yarn exports has jumped 55% in the first four months of the current financial year due to a resurgence in Chinese demand. If the trend continues, cotton yarn export will likely hit a new record this year. Data compiled by the Directorate General of Foreign Trade showed traders and exporters had registered for a shipment of 488.15 million kg between April and July 2013, compared with 314.19 million kg in the corresponding period last year. Export registration for cotton yarn almost doubled from 245.84 million kg in the April-July 2011 period. According to reports, the Cotton Yarn Advisory Board has projected a marginal 14.2% increase to 1,150 million kg in cotton yarn exports from India this financial year. But actual exports could be even higher. Total cotton yarn production this year is estimated at 4,000 million kg. The substantial increase in exports, however, has not affected domestic supply to mills at all. Domestic mills are operating smoothly with adequate capacity, said Nair. (Source: Business Standard)

Warehoused pepper lots, a clear case of adulteration

The food safety commissioner of Kerala Biju Prabhakar, who has ordered to destroy close to 900 tonnes of black pepper, says the warehoused pepper lots were adulterated and unfit for human consumption. It is a clear case of adulteration, Prabhakar told Business Line. The black pepper, adulterated with mineral oil, is a health hazard to the consumers and needs to be destroyed. He noted that according to the Food Safety and Standards Regulations 2011 black pepper should be free from traces of mineral oil, which was Group B carcinogenic stuff. He said that the rest of the pepper, currently lying in six warehouses which had been sealed by the food safety authority, was at various stages of checking and analysis. If tested positive, they risked destruction. (Source: Business Line)

U.S. sugar processors to sell 90,150 tonnes of sugar to USDA

U.S. sugar processors have offered to sell 90,150 tonnes of sugar to the U.S. Department of Agriculture as part of its "sugar-for-ethanol" program, designed to reduce an oversupply and boost domestic prices, the government said on Wednesday. The USDA will sell the sugar to ethanol producers, aiming at averting mass forfeitures of sugar that was used as collateral for government-backed loans. The Obama administration inaugurated a program last week to buy unwanted sugar and sell it at a loss to ethanol makers to produce more biofuels and mitigate a costly sugar surplus. It was the first time the administration used the so-called Feedstock Flexibility Program, created under a 2008 law with the goal of making sugar into a biofuel feedstock such as in Brazil. (Source: Reuters)

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Commodities Daily Report

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Thursday| 22 Aug, 2013
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Agricultural Commodities
Chana
Chana futures traded on a bullish note on Wednesday on account of rising demand and lower supplies. However, adequate stock positions coupled to meet the festive season demand capped sharp gains. The spot as well as the Futures settled 3.01% and 3.01% higher on Wednesday. As per a circular by NCDEX dated August 21 2013, Special Margin of 5% on the Short side imposed earlier has been withdrawn in Chana with effect from beginning of day Friday, August 23, 2013. As per the data released by the ministry of Agriculture, area under kharif th Pulses stood at 93.25 lakh ha as on 16 August 2013, up by 25.2 percent compared to the corresponding period last year. Pulses sowing in Gujarat as on 12 Aug was seen on 4.39 la ha, up by 29% compared to the same period last year. Also, sowing of kharif pulses in Rajasthan was seen 22.71 lakh ha, up by 50.39% compared to the corresponding period last year.
th

Market Highlights
Unit Chana Spot - NCDEX Chana- NCDEX Sept'13 Fut
`/qtl `/qtl

as on Aug 21, 2013 % change Last 3150 3083 Prev day 3.01 3.01 WoW 7.02 9.17 MoM 1.61 4.72
Source: Reuters

YoY -35.28 -35.66

Spread Matrix
Closing 3150 3083 3172 3274 20-Aug-13 -67 0 -

as on Aug 21, 2013 20-Sep-13 22 89 0 18-Oct-13 124 191 102 0 as on Aug 20, 2013 Stocks as on 19th Aug 60936 55666 11629 128231 Qty in Process 160 30 30 220

Spot 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13 18-Oct-13

Demand supply scenario

After producing record 18.45 mn tn Pulses, India is set to produce record crop for second year in row in 2013-14 as sowing during the ongoing kharif season is excellent propelled by good rains. Also, favorable soil moisture level has made ground for bumper Rabi harvest too. In value terms, India imported $2.3 billion of pulses in 2012-13, almost 28% higher over $1.85 billion in the previous year. However, imports may drop in 2013-14 season on expectations of higher output. Kharif Pulses witnessed a marginal decline in the output which was offset by a considerable rise in Rabi output, especially Chana during 2013-14. Higher returns earned in 2012, coupled with a hike in minimum support prices (MSP), and helped expand overall chana acreage in 2012-13 seasons. Chana sowing in 2012-13 was 5.65% higher at 95.17 lakh ha compared to previous year. As per the estimates, Chana output was pegged at a record 8.8 mn tn compared with its third advance estimates of 8.49 million tonnes and a previous record of 8.2 mn tn in 2010-11.

Stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Bikaner Delhi Indore Total Stocks as on 20th Aug 60245 55666 11599 127510 Qty in Process 160 30 30 220

309

111

938

1358

Technical Chart - Chana

NCDEX September contract

Outlook
Source: Telequote

Chana futures are expected to trade on a positive note on account of increase in demand ahead of the upcoming festive season. However, adequate stock positions may cap sharp upside in the prices. The regulator has also withdrawn special margins on the short side as prices have recovered significantly from lower levels over the past few weeks.

Technical Levels
Contract Chana Sept Futures Unit `/qtl Support

valid for Aug 22, 2013 Resistance 3130-3170

3000-3040

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Commodities Daily Report

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Thursday| 22 Aug, 2013
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Agricultural Commodities
Soybean
Soybean futures, after opening marginally lower, recovered sharply and settled 2.37% higher on account of crop concerns due to heavy rains in Madhya Pradesh, the largest soybean producing state. Weakness in the Rupee also supported an upside in the prices. However, expectations of a bumper output due to a higher acreage have capped sharp rise in the prices. Excessive rains have raised fears of crop damage, leading to a rise in the prices over the last few weeks. As per data released by the ministry of Agriculture, area under oilseeds th was recorded at 183.37 la ha on 16 Aug, 2013, an increase of 15.39 percent as compared to the corresponding period last year. Indias soy meal exports in July declined by 36.4% to 1.07 lakh tonnes as compared to 1.68 lakh tonnes last year. As per data released by Maharashtra Government on 16 Aug, 2013, Soybean sowing was done on 35.53 la ha, up by 12.46% compared to the same period last year. Similarly, in Rajasthan, soybean sowing was th undertaken on 10.58 la ha, 6.86% higher than last year as on 15 Aug, 2013. Also, in the state of Andhra Pradesh soybean sowing was up by 49.47% compared to the corresponding period last year. International Markets After witnessing profit taking in the previous session, CBOT Soybean futures recover from lower levels and settled 1.81% higher on Wednesday on account of weather concerns. The USDA crop progress report downgraded the good-to-excellent rating to 62% from 64% last week due to dry weather, raising crop damage fears. USDA reported that 72% of the crop is setting pods vs. 90% a year ago. Also, 92% of the soybean crop is blooming vs. 98% a year ago. Prices gained last week on account of weather concerns coupled with higher than expected export sales data. The USDA monthly crop report revised the acreage to 77.2 mn acres from its earlier estimates of 77.7 mn acres. Harvest estimates have also been trimmed to 3.255 bn bsh from the earlier estimates of 3.42 bn bsh. Forecast of 2013-14 ending stocks have also been slashed from 295 mn bsh in July to 220 mn bsh.
th

Market Highlights

as on Aug 21, 2013 % Change Prev day WoW 0.00 0.93 2.37 1.81 0.52 1.78 11.21 -2.56 2.08 5.14

Unit Soybean Spot- NCDEX Soybean- NCDEX Oct '13 Fut Soybean-CBOT Sept'13 Fut RM Seed Spot- NCDEX RM Seed- NCDEX Sept'13 Fut
`/qtl `/qtl

Last 3592 3325 1333 3573 3439

MoM -1.99 -11.30 -10.58 2.08 2.08

YoY -20.51 -16.89 -23.98 -20.75 -21.47

USc/Bsh
`/qtl `/qtl

Source: Reuters

Soybean Spread Matrix

Closing 3592 Spot 18-Oct-13 20-Nov-13 20-Dec-13 3324.5 3337 3367 0 12.5 0 18-Oct-13 -267.5 20-Nov-13 -255

as on Aug 21, 2013 20-Dec-13 -225 42.5 30 0 as on Aug 21, 2013 20-Sep-13 -102.65 31 0 18-Oct-13 -75.65 58 27 0 as on Aug 20, 2013 Qty in Process 0 0 0 0 as on Aug 20, 2013 Qty in Process 0 0 0 0 60 0 0 60 NCDEX October contract

Mustard Seed Spread Matrix

Spot 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13 18-Oct-13 Closing 3572.65 3439 3470 3497 20-Aug-13 -133.65 0 -

Soybean stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Akola Nagpur Sagar Total Stocks as on 20th Aug 41 0 0 41 Qty in Process 0 0 0 0 Qty in Process 0 0 0 0 60 0 0 0 Stocks as on 19th Aug 41 0 0 41 Stocks as on 19th Aug 1776 251 7040 644 47149 1270 1491 59901

Outlook
Soybean is expected to trade on a positive note on account of weather concerns coupled with a weak Rupee and tight supplies. However, higher sowing coupled with higher output estimates may cap the upside in the prices.

RM Seed stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Alwar Bharatpur Bikaner Hapur Jaipur Kota Sriganganagar Total Stocks as on 20th Aug 1776 251 5194 644 47149 1270 1491 57775

Rape/mustard Seed
Mustard seed futures recovered from lower levels and settled 1.81% higher on Wednesday on account of good demand coupled with higher oilseeds prices and costly oils imports. Tight supplies of soybean also supported prices. However, bumper output has capped sharp gains. Agriculture ministry in its fourth advance estimates, pegged mustard output at 7.82 mn tn, up by 18.4% compared to 2011-12 season.

Technical Chart Soybean

Outlook
Mustard seed futures are expected to trade on a positive note due to good demand coupled with higher edible oilseed prices. However, higher production and sufficient supplies this season may cap sharp gains.

Technical Levels
Contract Soybean NCDEX Oct Futures RM Seed NCDEX Sept Futures Unit `/qtl `/qtl

valid for Aug 22, 2013 Support 3230-3275 3360-3400 Resistance 3370-3420 3475-3515
Source: Telequote

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Commodities Daily Report

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Thursday| 22 Aug, 2013
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Agricultural Commodities
Refined Soy Oil
Ref soy oil futures traded on positive note and settled 1.41% higher on Wednesday tracking higher soybean prices coupled with demand ahead of the festive season. The Rupee continued to depreciate and touched a new record low, further pushing up the prices. Agri Ministrys proposal to increase the import duty on refined oil coupled with fears of soybean crop damage also supported prices at lower levels. However, comfortable supplies have capped sharp upside in the prices. India meet 50-55 percent of its edible consumption through imports and thus rupee factor is a major determinant of edible oil prices. As per the data released by the Solvent Extractors' Association of India Imports of vegetable oils, including non-edible oils declined 6.13% to 889,493 tn in July. Monthly soy oil imports rose 69% as local supplies are almost before the soybean crop enters the markets. Stockpiles of edible oil at ports on Aug 1 stood at 610,000 tn, the trade body said, higher than 695,000 tn on July 1. Stocks were still on the higher side despite the decline in monthly imports.

Market Highlights
% Change Unit `/10 kg `/10 kg USc/ Bushel MYR/Tonne `/10 kg Last 692.45 691.90 42.82 2393 543.50 Prev day 0.00 1.41 -0.14 0.55 1.86

as on Aug 21, 2013

Ref Soy oil SpotNCDEX Ref Soy oil- NCDEX Sept '13 Fut Soybean Oil- CBOTSept'13 Fut
CPO-Bursa Malaysia Sept '13 Fut CPO-MCX- Aug '13 Futures

WoW 1.66 2.25 1.06 2.53 6.86

MoM 0.84 0.45 -5.89 2.88 8.59

YoY -11.48 -12.74 -22.94 #N/A -2.49

Source: Reuters

Refined Soy Oil Spread Matrix

Spot 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13 18-Oct-13 Closing 692.45 691.9 665.6 657.25 20-Aug-13 -0.55 0 20-Sep-13 -26.85 -26.3 0 -

as on Aug 21, 2013 18-Oct-13 -35.2 -34.65 -8.35 0 as on Aug 21, 2013

Outlook
Festive demand, higher soybean prices as well as a weak Rupee are expected to support soy oil prices in the intraday. However, comfortable stock position of imported edible oil may cap sharp upside in the prices at higher levels.

CPO Spread Matrix

31-Aug-13 30-Sep-13 31-Oct-13 Closing 543.5 539.8 528.1 31-Aug-13 0 30-Sep-13 -3.7 0 -

31-Oct-13 -15.4 -11.7 0

Crude Palm Oil

MCX CPO Futures traded on a positive note and settled 1.86% higher on Wednesday supported by festive demand and a weak Rupee. KLCE palm oil futures also gained 0.55% on account of weaker Ringgit, increasing scope of higher exports. Indonesia has cut export tax on crude palm oil to 9% in September from 10.5% in August. Prices on the KLCE had earlier declined to the lowest level this year and have spurred export demand for most consumed cooking oil. Also, an increase in the output is expected due to seasonally higher yield period, which may cap sharp upside and pressurize prices. Exports of Malaysian palm oil products during Aug 1-20 increased 10.3% to 880,979 tons tonnes from 798,482 tonnes shipped during July 1-20. Malaysia has set the export tax for Palm oil at 4.5% for September, unchanged since March. According to Malaysian Palm oil Board, exports increased 0.53% in July against June, while end stocks increased 1%. Exports increased due to Ramadan demand. India's refined palm oil imports declined 27.8% in July to 213,853 tn from 296, 230 tn in June as a weak Rupee made imports expensive.

Technical Chart Ref Soy Oil

NCDEX September contract

Technical Chart Crude Palm Oil

MCX Aug contract

Source: Telequote

Outlook
CPO futures are expected trade on positive note today supported by festive demand. However, comfortable supplies may cap sharp upside in the prices. Also, expectations of a recovery in the Rupee may pressurize prices.

Technical Outlook
Contract Soy Oil Sept NCDEX Futures CPO MCX Aug Futures Unit `/qtl `/qtl

valid for Aug 22, 2013 Support 682-687 535-540 Resistance 697-702 548-552

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Commodities Daily Report

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Thursday| 22 Aug, 2013
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Agricultural Commodities
Spices
Jeera
Jeera Futures recovered from lower levels on account of overseas demand and settled 1.64% higher on Wednesday. However, the spot remained lower on account of higher arrivals coupled with good rains in Gujarat, which has increased the moisture levels and set the ground for higher sowing, which commences from October. According to IBIS, India exported 9462.64 tn of jeera in June. The major destinations were UAE, Nepal, Vietnam & USA. In the global markets, there is a supply crunch due to the ongoing geopolitical tensions in Syria and Turkey, which has raised supply concerns from these two major exporting countries. Export orders are diverted to India. Production is also expected to decline in Syria and Turkey. 1% Jeera of Indian origin is being offered for Singapore at $2,2502,300 (FOB Mum) while for Europe at $2,500-2,600/tn (CNF).
Jeera Spot- NCDEX Jeera- NCDEX July '13 Sept Turmeric Spot- NCDEX Turmeric- NCDEX Sept '13 Fut Unit `/qtl `/qtl `/qtl `/qtl Last 13480 13440 5006 5050

Market Highlights
Prev day -0.15 1.64 0.00 1.61

as on Aug 21, 2013 % Change WoW -0.35 1.36 -1.25 8.74 MoM -1.94 -1.03 -12.46 -13.88 YoY -16.92 -15.04 -8.41 -13.53

Source: Reuters

Jeera Spread Matrix

Spot 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13 18-Oct-13 Closing 13480 13440 13575 13595 20-Aug-13 -40 0 20-Sep-13 95 135 0 -

as on Aug 21, 2013 18-Oct-13 115 155 20 0 as on Aug 21, 2013 20-Aug-13 44.3 0 20-Sep-13 110.3 66 0 18-Oct-13 170.3 126 60 0 as on Aug 20, 2013 Stocks as on Qty in 19th Aug Process 1420 3751 5171 8645 NCDEX Sept contract 0 0 0 0

Arrivals production and Exports

Arrivals in Unjha were reported at 8,000 bags on Wednesday. Exports of Jeera in 2012 - 2013 stood at 79,900 tn, an increase of 75%. (Source:
Spices Board)

Turmeric Spread Matrix

Spot 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13 18-Oct-13 Closing 5005.7 5050 5116 5176

Production of Jeera in 2012-13 is expected around 40-45 lakh bags (55 kgs each), marginally higher than 40 lakh bags last year. Carryover stocks from 2011-12 harvest were around 8-9 lakh bags.

Outlook
Jeera is expected to trade on a mixed note today. Overseas as well as domestic markets are expected to support prices. However, higher supplies and good rains in the jeera sowing regions may cap the upside in the prices. However, overall trend remains positive for Jeera due to overseas demand, due to lower output in Syria & Turkey.

Stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Jeera Turmeric Jodhpur Unjha Total Nizamabad Stocks as on 20th Aug 1420 3577 4997 8645 Qty in Process 0 0 0 0

Turmeric
Turmeric futures traded on a positive note and settled 1.61% higher on Wednesday on the back of fresh export as well as festive demand. However, huge carryover stocks as well as good sowing progress have capped sharp gains. The regulator imposed 10% special margin on short side in Turmeric w.e.f 06/08/2013 to curb the volatility.

Technical Chart Jeera

Production, Arrivals and Exports

Arrivals in Nizamabad and Erode are report at 1,500 bags and 3,500 bags respectively on Monday. Sowing of Turmeric in AP is reported at th 0.45 lakh ha as on 14 August, as against 0.47 lakh ha last year and a normal sowing of 0.57 lakh ha. Production in 2012-13 is reported around 45 lakh bags, lower by 4050%. It is estimated that current years carryover stocks would be around 10 lakh bags. (1 bag= 75 kgs). Exports for 2012-13 stood at 80,050 tn, marginally higher than 79,500 tn last year. (Source: Spices Board) Outlook Turmeric futures are expected to continue to trade higher on account of overseas demand. Lower coupled with domestic demand may support prices at lower levels. However, huge carryover stocks coupled with the ongoing sowing and good monsoon progress may cap sharp gains.

Technical Chart Turmeric

NCDEX Sept contract

Technical Outlook
Jeera NCDEX Sept Futures Turmeric NCDEX Sept Futures Unit `/qtl `/qtl

Valid for Aug 22, 2013

Support 13250-13340 4870-4960 Resistance 13530-13610 5130-5220
Source: Telequote

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Commodities Daily Report

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Thursday| 22 Aug, 2013
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Agricultural Commodities
Sugar
Sugar September futures traded on a flat note with a positive bias and settled marginally higher by 0.17%. Ample supplies have pressurized prices while improvement in demand ahead of the festive season supported prices at lower levels. An increase in the import duty as well as export demand also supported prices. The Food Minister said that his ministry has moved a cabinet proposal to allow state governments to hike prices of sugar for PDS. Good monsoon conditions in Maharashtra and Karnataka has led to expectations of recovery in the cane yield, keeping prices under pressure. Indian traders have signed deals to export 75,000 tonnes of white sugar in July, reversing an import trend after the rupee's depreciation. However, the same didnt reflect in the market as supplies are significantly higher. According to the Ministry of Agriculture, Sugarcane has been planted in th 48.53 la ha as on 16 Aug 2013 as compared to 50.06 la ha last year as drought affected Maharashtra and Karnataka have reported lower area. Based on satellite images for June and field surveys carried out by ISMA (Indian Sugar Mills Association), total sugarcane acreage available for crushing in the sugar season 2013-14 will be about 51.50 lakh hectares, which is about 1.52% less than 52.30 lakh hectares last year. (Source: ET)

Market Highlights
Unit Sugar SpotNCDEX Sugar M- NCDEX Sept '13 Fut Sugar No 5- LiffeOct'13 Fut Sugar No 11-ICE October '13 Fut `/qtl 3026 `/qtl 483.7 $/tonne 362.67 $/tonne -0.91 -0.98 0.17 Last 3060

as on Aug 21, 2013 % Change Prev. day WoW -0.02 0.54 -0.92 -4.08 -5.39 MoM YoY -0.11 -13.25 1.99 3.40 0.18 -11.29 -11.72 -17.49

Source: Reuters

Sugar Spread Matrix

Spot 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13 18-Oct-13 Closing 3060 3026 3036 3043 20-Aug-13 -34 0 20-Sep-13 -24 10 0 -

as on Aug 21, 2013 18-Oct-13 -17 17 7 0

Stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Delhi Kolhapur Sangli Solapur Total Stocks as on 20th Aug 449 5452 0 923 6824 Qty in Process 0 0 0 0 0

as on Aug 20, 2013 Stocks as on 19th Aug 449 5452 0 923 6824 NCDEX Sept contract Qty in Process 0 0 0 0 0

Domestic Production and Exports

After producing surplus sugar in the current season, sugar output is expected to decline in 2013-14 season on account of lower plantings. However, good monsoon has curbed some losses. According to the preliminary estimate of an industry body, Production is estimated to be 237 lakh tonne for 2013-14 season as compared to 250 lakh tonnes in 2012-13. According to trade body, with a domestic consumption of 235 lakh tonne and an expected production of 237 lakh tonne, the year 2013-14 will be a consecutive fourth year of surplus production for India. ISMA has estimated that the opening balance as on October 1, 2013 (for the new season 2013-14), will be around 80 lakh tonne, which is about 20 lakh tonne more than the normal opening balance.

Technical Chart - Sugar

Global Sugar Updates

LIFFE as well as ICE Sugar traded with a negative bias and settled 0.98% and 0.91% lower on Wednesday on account of strengthening Dollar. Prices have gained over the last few days due to rains and cold weather in Brazil raising fears of frost and crop damage. the USDA report reduced its forecast for domestic sugar production. Brazil's main cane region produced 2.53 mn tn of sugar in the second half of July, up 5 percent from the 2.4 mn tn produced in the first half of the month. Prices, in the long term have declined on account of abundant supplies from Brazil. According to UNICA, Brazilian mills have produced 88.95 lakh tn of sugar from the start of the cane season on April 1 through June, up 33 percent from 66.9 lakh tn a year ago.

Source: Telequote

Outlook
Sugar Futures may trade on a mixed note. Festive demand, higher duties and food ministrys proposal to allow higher prices for PDS may support prices. However, ample supplies and expectations of a sugar surplus may cap upside and pressurize prices at higher levels.

Technical Outlook
Contract Sugar Sept NCDEX Futures Unit `/qtl

valid for Aug 22, 2013 Support 3015-3020 Resistance 3030-3035

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Commodities Daily Report

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Thursday| 22 Aug, 2013
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Agricultural Commodities
Kapas
NCDEX Kapas as well as MCX Cotton Futures opened sharply lower tracking bearish international markets. However, prices recovered from lower levels on account of on account of demand from millers as well as yarn exports on the back of thin supplies towards the end of the marketing year. Also, a weak Rupee supported prices at lower levels. The government has allowed the Cotton Corporation of India to export more cotton in the current season. Ministry of Agriculture, in its fourth Advance estimates of Food grain production wherein it pegged Cotton output at 34 million bales (1 bale= 170 kg) in 2012-13, lower than the record 35.2 million bales in the previous year. With the cotton season nearing its end, arrivals have declined considerably. According to CCI, Cotton arrivals since the beginning of the th season (Oct 2012- Sep 2013) till 14 July is reported at 331.15, down 1.48 percent compared to same period last year.

Market Highlights
Unit `20 kgs `/Bale USc/Lbs Last 1021.5 22260 83.91 93.55

as on Aug 21, 2013 % Change Prev. day WoW -1.49 -2.06 -1.72 1.69 -5.46 -8.24 -3.71 -2.96 MoM YoY -2.06 #N/A 13.92 25.06 -3.02 9.76 1.52 10.12
Source: Reuters

NCDEX Kapas Apr Fut MCX Cotton Aug Fut ICE Cotton Oct 13 Cot look A Index

Cotton Spread Matrix

Closing 31-Oct-13 29-Nov-13 31-Dec-13 22260 21070 20970 31-Oct-13 0 -

as on Aug 21, 2013 29-Nov-13 31-Dec-13 -1190 0 -1290 -100 0

Sowing Progress
As per the ministry of agriculture, cotton sowing was reported at 110.93 th la ha on 16 Aug 2013 as against 110.26 la ha last year. In Gujarat, cotton was sown on 26.62 la ha as on 16 August 2013 as against 22.42 la ha during the same period last year. In Rajasthan, it was th done on 3 la ha as on 19 August 2013 as against 4.53 la ha last year. In st AP, cotton sowing was undertaken on 18.65 la ha as on 31 July 2013 as against 18.14 la ha last year.
th

Technical Chart - Kapas

NCDEX April contract

Domestic Production and Consumption

Cotton Advisory Board (CAB) in its latest meet dated 17 April 2013 has projected cotton crop at 34 mn bales for 2012-13 season compared to the previous estimates of 33 mn bales. Mill consumption is expected to go up from 22.3 mn bales last year to 23.5 mn bales. Exports are estimated at 8.1 mn bales while imports are estimated 2.5 mn bales. However, Cotton Association of Indias estimates differ from that of the CAB which pegs cotton output for 201213 at 35.2 mn bales as on May 31 down 6% compared with 37.3 mn bales in 2011-12.
th

Technical Chart - Cotton

MCX Oct contract

Global Cotton Updates

ICE cotton futures declined sharply for the second consecutive session and settled 5.46% lower on account of long liquidation on hopes of higher global output this season. Prices traded on a positive note last week as the USDA monthly report lowered US cotton output forecast to 13.05 million bales, the lowest in four years. The USDA weekly crop progress report rated good/excellent condition at 46% against 43% last week and reduced the poor/very poor at 23% against 25% last week. ICAC has increased projections for global production and endings stocks for the 2013/14 crop year. As per USDA acreage report, the estimate for U.S. cotton planted acreage is down 17% from 2012, but is up from March 2013 estimates.

Source: Telequote

Outlook
Cotton prices may trade on a mixed note. Demand from millers as well as yarn exporters may support prices. However, weak international markets coupled with higher sowing may cap sharp upside in the prices.

Technical Outlook
Contract Kapas NCDEX April 14 Fut Cotton MCX Oct Futures Unit `/20 kgs `/bale

valid for Aug 22, 2013 Support 999-1010 21880-22060 Resistance 1032-1043 22450-22630

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Commodities Daily Report

`
Thursday| 22 Aug, 2013
st

Agricultural Commodities
Guar Complex
Guar continued to trade higher for the third consecutive session and hit the upper circuit breaker on account of bargain buying. Farmers are also holding back their positions expecting higher prices in the coming days. Prices have declined sharply and made fresh contract lows due to expectations of bumper production due to higher area under cultivation and conducive weather. According to sources, carry forward stocks are higher and in such a situation farmers are increasing acreage in Rajasthan. The country's top guar seed-producing Rajasthan state has received more rainfall than normal since the beginning of monsoon season on June 1, boosting the sowing. Overall trend in guar, since the relaunch of the futures contract, remained bearish. Higher production last year and comparatively lower exports have resulted into higher supplies this year. With early and above normal monsoon so far, prospects for next years crop are also strong.

Market Highlights
Unit Guar Seed SpotNCDEX Guar Seed- NCDEX Oct 13 Fut Guar Gum SpotNCDEX Guar Gum- NCDEX Oct 13 Fut `/qtl 4570 `/qtl 15391 `/qtl 12680 `/qtl 4.02 4.07 4.10 Last Prev day 5583 4.78

as on Aug 21, 2013 % change WoW 7.29 10.92 6.12 9.03 MoM -19.68 -35.99 -19.99 -36.15 YoY #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A

Source: Reuters

NCDEX Guarseed Spread Matrix

Spot 18-Oct-13 20-Nov-13 20-Dec-13 Closing 5582.5 4570 4500 4520 18-Oct-13 -1012.5 0 20-Nov-13 -1082.5 -70 0 -

as on Aug 21, 2013 20-Dec-13 -1062.5 -50 20 0 as on Aug 21, 2013 20-Nov-13 -2711.45 0 0 20-Dec-13 -2811.45 -100 -100 0 as on Aug 20, 2013 Stocks as on 19th Aug 50 52 20 Qty in Process 0 0 0

Monsoon and Sowing

During the last week, rains increased its intensity over areas growing soybean, groundnut and cotton while they eased in the northwest and the northeast regions. However, cumulative rainfall continues to remain above average. According to Rajasthan Farm Department, Guarseed acreage as on 22 July, 2013 stood at 12.77 lakh hectares compared with 10.15 lakh hectares sown during the same period last year.
nd

NCDEX Guar gum Spread Matrix

Spot 18-Oct-13 20-Nov-13 20-Dec-13 Closing 15391.45 12680 12680 12580 18-Oct-13 -2711.45 0 -

Guarseed area increased significantly last year. With favorable monsoon and with attractive returns, acreage may remain higher in the coming season too.

Stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Deesa Bikaner Sriganganagar Stocks as on 20th Aug 50 52 20 Qty in Process 0 0 0

Production and Exports

According to Rajasthan Farm Departments third advance estimates, Guarseed production stood at 20.23 lakh tonnes in 2012-13. Although production is higher compared to the previous year, but still it is much below the initial expectations on account of erratic monsoon last year. In the coming season, higher sowing along with timely rains may boost guar production across India. However, if rains turn truant in the major guar growing areas, then this may adversely impact output. Exports which touched record 7.07 lakh tonnes in the FY 2011-12, declined in the FY 2012-13 as US, the largest importer of Guar gum has stocked huge inventories. During the FY 2012-13, guar gum exports stood at 4.58 lakh tonnes during April 2012-February 2013. US has stocked

Technical Chart - Guar Seed

NCDEX October contract

Outlook
Guar seed and guar gum futures may trade on a positive note on account of lower level demand. Farmers are also holding back their stocks expecting better realization in the coming days. However, overall trend remains bearish due to higher sowing. If the current pace of rains continues and sowing increase significantly, we may see further downside over the short term.

Technical Chart - Guar Gum

NCDEX October contract

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Contract Guar Seed Oct (NCDEX) Guar Seed Oct (MCX) Guar Gum Oct (NCDEX) Guar Gum Oct (MCX) Unit `/qtl `/qtl `/qtl `/qtl

valid for Aug 22, 2013 Support 4420-4500 4470-4550 12330-12500 12000-12180 Resistance 4640-4720 4690-4760 12850-13030 12540-12710

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