Professional Documents
Culture Documents
AGENDA
35
35
50 45 40 35 30
50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5
30
25
30
25 20
USD '000
15
10 5
15
10 5
USD '000
20
25 20 15 10 5
0
02 03 04 05 06 North Sea 07 08 09 10 Brazil 11 12 West Africa
0
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 Brazil 10 11 12 North Sea
Average Term-rates USD DAY North Sea W Africa Brazil 2011YTD 20,060 20,400 25,900 2012YTD 20,983 25,600 29,500 % 5 25 14
Brazil
31,700
34,450
40 35 30 25
40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5
70 60 50
70 60 50 40
USD 000
20 15 10 5
USD 000
40
30
20 10
30
20 10
0
02 03 04 05 06 07 North Sea 8-10,000 bhp Brazil 12,000 bhp
Average Term-rates 000/DAY North Sea W Africa 2011YTD 15,538 18,160 2012YTD 15,688 19,675 % 1 8
0
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 North Sea 16,000 bhp West Africa 16,000 bhp
Average Term-rates| 000/DAY North Sea W Africa Brazil 2011YTD 32,248 25,550 44,200 2012YTD 39,524 29,550 48,250 % 23 16 9
Brazil
SE Asia
29,650
15,525
33,150
18,725
12
21
The North Sea OSV market has come off significantly in 2012
AHTS: Supply, demand and utilisation PSV: Supply, demand and utilisation
100 90 80 70 60
250
150 140
200 130 150 120 110 100 100 90 50 80 0 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 (E) Demand Supply Utilisation 70
Vessels
Utilisation Rate
80 70 60
Utilisation Rate
90
Vessels
110
AHTS
PSV
25% 20%
25% 20%
(18)
15%
Fleet Growth
10% 5%
(76) (671)
(265)
Fleet Growth
15%
10% 5%
0%
-5% -10%
(102)
(59)
(21)
0%
-5% -10%
-15%
-15%
bnTOE
bnTOE
8 6
8 6
4 2
0 82-86 87-91 92-96 97-01 02-06 07-11
4 2
0 82-86 87-91 92-96 97-01 02-06 07-11
Mid-water (400-3000ft)
14 12
10
Deep-water (>3000ft)
14 12
10
bnTOE
bnTOE
8 6
8 6
4 2
0 82-86 87-91 92-96 97-01 02-06 07-11
4 2
0 82-86 87-91 92-96 97-01 02-06 07-11
Source: Infield
20
20
45000 40000
16
16
Operatinal surface wells
12
Years
12
10000 5000
1000 500 0
1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
0
96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
0 SW MW DW
Source: Infield
90%
80% 70%
Market share
60% 50%
40%
80 70 60 50
40
30
Floaters
40 30 20 10 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 MW DW UDW
Floaters
20
10
97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 MW DW UDW
10
2500
250
200 150 Wells <400ft Jackups on contract 100 50 0 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
Sao Paulo Plateau Sub- (pre salt) Santos Basin Sergipe Sub-basin Espirito Santo Salt Sub- East Campos Sub-basin Sigsbee Sub-basin Tano Basin Cote d'Ivoire Basin Niger Delta Lower Congo Basin Senegal Basin Nile Delta Basin KG Deep Water Sub- Ravva Sub-basin Baram Delta Exmouth Plateau Kutei Basin Average Other 20 40 60 80 Well days 100 120
Brazil USA
Jackups on contract
Wells
W Africa
India Pacific
140
160
11
12 10
Oil Revenues (USD bn/day)
45
Oil Service Co's Revenues (USD bn)
+10.0% +9.3%
40 35 8 6 20 4 2 5 0 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 Order Intake 10 11 12 0 15 10 30 25
96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12E 13E 14E Offshore Drilling Subsea Multi-Service Other Equipment and Services E&P (Estimated)
Oil Revenues
12
12 10
118%
bnTOE
41%
400-2999
Source: Infield
13
100% 95%
100% 95%
Active utilisation
85% 80% 75% 70% 65% 60% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Active utilisation
MW
IC blt <1998
60%
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
14
350
170 % 160 %
Jackups
200
110% 100%
Utilisation
Active utilization
150
100
90 %
50
80% 70%
80 % 0 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 70 %
Solid line - 30 p.a. JU assumed scrapped/removed Dotted line 15 p.a. JUs assumed scrapped/removed
Source: RS Platou Offshore Research
Utilisation
90%
Active utilization
15
3,500 3,000
15%
2,500
2,000 1,500
13% 11% 9% 7% 5% 3%
Vessels
4.6%
1%
-1% 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Deep
Production Support
Drilling Support
Construction Support
Note: Due to lack of data (non-existing), supply vessel demand is not recorded directly, However, demand may be calculated implicitly through: dayrates= f(utilisation=demand/supply) - dayrates, utilisation and supply are known variables.
The implicit demand is compared to our bottom up model, which estimates OSV demand mainly through rig support, production support and construction support. R2 of the bottom up demand model and implicit demand was in the period 1998-2011 88.85%. RS Platou Economic Research RS Platou Offshore Research Oslo
16
250
180 160
200
140 120
150
Vessels
Vessels
100
50
100
80
60
40
20
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 (ytd)
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 (ytd)
10-15,999 BHP
16,000+ BHP
<10,000 BHP
-500 m2
500-899 m2
900+ m2
17
Delivered 2012 11 17 14 45 87
2012 19 6 12 28 65
2013 23 30 56 68 177
2014+ 6 6 31 64 107
AHTS (BHP)
107 8 28 26 16 185
65 12 10 6 2 95
55 8 16 11 2 92
40 0 10 11 11 72
10 1 3 4 3 21
18
250
200
Vessels
250
Del. according to jan 2012 obook Actual del. of vsls in Jan 2012 obook
160
140
Del. according to jan 2012 obook
160
140
200
Vessels
120
100
120
100
150
150
80 60 40 20
100 50
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
100 50
-
80 60 40 20
-
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
19
80 70
35
30
25
Vessels
60
50
Vessels
20 15
40 30 20 10 2008-1 Brazil 2009-1 China 2010-1 Other Norway 2011-1 North America 2012-1
10
5 2008-1 Brazil 2009-1 China 2010-1 Other Norway 2011-1 North America 2012-1
20
250
20 %
250
20 %
200
15 %
200
15 %
150
150
Fleet Growth
Fleet Growth
10 %
10 %
Vessels
Vessels
21
Global OSV utlisation likely to rise further, albeit with short term weakness
November 2012 Global supply, demand and utilization rate
4000 3500 3000 2500
Vessels
Utilisation Rate
22
70 60 50
USD '000
70 60 50
USD '000
50
50
45
40 35 30 25
45
40 35 30 25
40
40
30
20 10 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
30
20 10 -
20
15 10 5 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
20
15 10 5 -
N Sea 900+ m2
Note: The forecasts are annual averages and will therefore not indicate variations within a year.
23
Summary
December 2012
24
RS Platou ASA (Oslo): Haakon VII's gate 10 N-0116 Oslo Norway Switchboard telephone: +47 23 11 20 00 www.platou.com
RS Platou (Asia) Pte. Ltd.: 3 Temasek Avenue #20-01, Centennial Tower Singapore, 039190 Telephone: +65 6336 8733 www.platou.com
A large part of the 70s/80s built fleet has already been removed
November 2012
180 160 140 120 Vessels 100 80 60 40 20 0 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 DP DP1 1998 DP2
RS Platou Economic Research RS Platou Offshore Research
Existing fleet (including 2012) 70/80s 90s DP2 3 43 DP1 14 55 DP 1 7 No DP 148 39 Removed 87 2 Total 253 146
2002
2006
2010
2014
NO DP
Removed
26