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9932

Sequential Reliability Tests

Fixed time reliability tests are based on the Consumer's risk, the probability of accepting products with a mean time between failures (MTBF) considered poor (called 1) and the Producer's risk, the probability of rejecting products with a MTBF considered acceptable (called 0). Sequential tests are based on the ratio of these risks. This innovation permits faster acceptance or rejection when the MTBF of the lot on test is closer to one of the MTBF values than it is to the other. It is assumed that the failure rate is a constant. Following is a chart of a typical sequential test, a summary of the sequential tests found in MILHDBK-781, Reliability Test Methods, Plans, and Environments for Engineering Development, Qualification and Production, and the detailed accept/reject criteria for a sequential test in which the producer's and consumer's risks are each 10%, and the ratio of 0 to 1 is 2.0. Following this are links to the detailed accept/reject criteria for other sequential tests. Typical Sequential Test
9 8 Reject Cumulative Failures 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Test Data End Test Accept Continue Test

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Cumulative Test Time, Hrs.

Sequential Tests Nominal Decision Risks Producer's Consumer's Risk (%) Risk (%) 10 20 10 20 10 20 30 30 Notes: Discrimination Ratio (0/1) Time to Accept Decision (Multiples of 1) Expected1 Maximum2 25.95 49.5 11.4 21.9 10.2 20.6 4.8 9.74 6.0 10.35 3.42 4.5 5.1 6.8 2.6 4.5

Minimum 10 1.5 6.6 20 1.5 4.19 10 2.0 4.40 20 2.0 2.80 10 3.0 3.75 20 3.0 2.67 30 1.5 3.15 30 2.0 1.72 1. Expected time for a true MTBF equal to 0 1

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2. Arbitrary truncation point Sequential Test Plan for 10% Risks, 2.0 Discrimination Ratio Number of Failures 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Reject if t 1 Times: N/A N/A N/A 0.70 2.08 3.48 4.86 6.24 7.63 9.02 10.40 11.79 13.18 14.56 15.94 17.34 20.60 Accept if t 1 Times: 4.40 5.79 7.18 8.56 9.94 11.34 12.72 14.10 15.49 16.88 18.26 19.65 20.60 20.60 20.60 20.60 N/A

Copyright 2001 IIT Research Institute. All rights reserved.

Source:

RAC Publication, STAT, Practical Statistical Tools for the Reliability Engineer, Sept. 1999.

Links to Other Test Plans: 10% Risks, 1.5 Discrimination Ratio 20% Risks, 1.5 Discrimination Ratio 20% Risks, 2.0 Discrimination Ratio 10% Risks, 3.0 Discrimination Ratio 20% Risks, 3.0 Discrimination Ratio 30% Risks, 1.5 Discrimination Ratio 30% Risks, 2.0 Discrimination Ratio For More Information:

MIL-HDBK-781, Reliability Test Methods, Plans, and Environments for Engineering Development, Qualification and Production.

Links of Interest:

RAC Technical Brief, Fixed Time Reliability Tests.